Month: September 2008

Are you working or volunteering for a campaign this fall – at any position up or down the ticket? (I should hope you are!)

If so, tell us about the campaign you’re working on and the work that you’re doing. I’d love to hear about it.  

SurveyUSA (9/10-11, likely voters, 8/13-14 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 40 (39)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 41 (46)

Dean Barkley (I): 14 (-)

Undecided: 5 (5)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

SurveyUSA has generally given more favorable margins for Coleman than Rasmussen (the only two outfits that regularly release polls of this contest), in part perhaps based on a sample of younger voters who are more pro-GOP than you might expect. So while it might be tempting to say that Franken is performing well in the face of a funky cross-sample, I’d prefer to wait for SUSA to release the poll’s crosstabs to pick this one apart. UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here. Look like SUSA finally solved the young voter problem — in this poll, Franken leads 48-33 among 18-34 year-olds.

Note: In the August poll, Dean Barkley’s name wasn’t explicitly mentioned, but “Other” gobbled up 11% of the vote.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by a 49-47 in the poll, the same margin that SUSA showed here in August.

(Via MN Publius)

Canton Firefighters Endorse Boccieri

The Canton Professional Firefighters Association, IAFF Local 249, has endorsed John Boccieri in the race for Ohio’s 16th Congressional District.

Dan Reed, President of Local 249, said:

“John has always been very responsive to us. We appreciate his respect for firefighters, his military service, and his commitment to collective bargaining rights. I know he’ll listen to our needs and stand up for us in Washington.”

The Canton Professional Firefighters Association has a membership of 163 Canton firefighters.

Boccieri said he was honored to receive the group’s endorsement.

“Canton’s firefighters put their lives on the line for us every day, and I couldn’t be prouder of their service and dedication. I’ll fight in Congress to make sure they have all the support and resources they need to do their job and keep our community safe.”

Earlier this week, the DCCC unveiled an unprecedented fifth wave of its highly-touted “Red to Blue” fundraising and support program for Democratic candidates running in GOP-held House districts. With the DCCC bolstering the ranks of this program with so many up and comers, it’s worth asking: just how valuable is this endorsement, and what can its participants expect in terms of tangible support?

The “Red to Blue” distinction is essentially the DCCC’s stamp of confidence in a local campaign. Roll Call has more:

The list started in the 2004 cycle. Democratic consultant Mark Nevins worked at the DCCC before the list became akin to “the Good Housekeeping seal of approval” for Democratic Congressional races.

“If a candidate is on the Red to Blue program, it is an easy way to identify people who the party believes have a realistic shot at winning,” he said.

In other words, the distinction is an arrow drawn by the DCCC for potential donors saying: Hey, this candidate is worth your time — and money. CT-04 candidate Jim Himes sums it up well:

“It certainly got us a lot of assistance from the DCCC,” Himes said. “It certainly helped with validation and credibility, and it helped to some extent with fundraising as well.”

But after seven months on the list, Himes said Red to Blue was more helpful in the beginning stages of his campaign.

“I guess I would agree that the Red to Blue program is more helpful early on than when it comes down to people making a decision about voting,” he said. “At this point, my critical challenge is really telling my story in my district.”

In other words, the earlier a campaign can secure this endorsement, the more valuable it is in terms of attracting national donors. (That’s not to say that late-bloomers can’t win – but more on that below.)

But what about attracting cash infusions from the DCCC itself in the form of independent expenditures? Looking at each of the DCCC’s four waves of R2B in the 2006 cycle gives us a similar answer: the earlier that a campaign is added to the program, the more likely the committee has been to make independent expenditures in that particular race.

Let’s go through each of the DCCC’s Red to Blue waves in 2006, and tally up how much the DCCC spent on each race. We’ll start with the first wave, and continue with the remainder below the fold. (UPDATE: As per suggestions in the comments, I’ve added up the NRCC’s totals in these districts, too — to give you a sense of how much of a bullseye gets painted on an R2B candidate’s back.)

Wave 1 – April 27, 2006:

Wave 2 – July 13, 2006:

Wave 3 – September 18, 2006:

Wave 4 – October 27, 2006:

Now, it’s pretty clear that the addition of so many races to the R2B program a week and a half before election day was mostly a “pat on the back” exercise for many of these candidates rather than a legitimate showing of support, although it’s worth noting that we’re looking at five congressmen today who came out of that last-minute batch.

However, just about every candidate in the September 18th and earlier waves received a direct helping hand by the DCCC’s IE shop – with the exception of blue seaters who never really needed the help (Hirono, Hare and Sutton), and Phyllis Busansky, who never really stood much of a chance against a candidate named “Bilirakis”.

So with all that in mind, here are the five waves of Red to Blue that the DCCC has announced so far this year: Round one, two, three, four, and five.

Special note: I could not obtain figures for FL-13, but I do know that the DCCC funneled some considerable resources here.

Just a quick post for these two ads below that are absolutely the two slimiest I have seen out of either camp this year.

Quote:

   Republican Sen. Gordon Smith has enlisted the victim of a serial rapist to appear in an emotional TV ad accusing his Democratic rival, Jeff Merkley, of failing to crack down on serious sex offenders.

   Tiffany Edens, who became well-known in Oregon as she fought convicted rapist Richard Troy Gillmore’s attempt to win parole, charges that Merkley voted in the state Legislature against extending the statute of limitations on rape.

   “Jeff Merkley,” Edens says, staring into the camera as the commercial concludes, “you should have voted to protect victims, not rapists.”

Video below the jump…

 

A funny thing happened last night in Paducah. Although Hurricane Ike had not even touched ground in the United States yet, prices at the pump started rising and hitting as high as $4.59 a gallon. This caused a rush on the pumps that hadn’t gone up, and resulted in lines all the way out on the road in some places, and even a few fist-fights from consumers desperate to fill their tanks before the prices spiked.

The real question is why were prices going up so quickly? Our Lt. Governor, Dan Mongiardo was quick to point out on the radio this morning that the prices seem to be spiking mostly in Western Kentucky. He also noted that not one drop of gas being sold there originated from Houston or Galveston, the areas affected by the Hurricane.

He was not the only one that smelled a rat. Our Democratic Attorney General, Jack Conway was on the job too:

“Today, I formally requested that Gov. Beshear implement the price gouging protections of Kentucky’s Consumer Protection Act as they apply to gasoline and other goods and services. We have received an overwhelming influx of reports from across Kentucky regarding gasoline price spikes and even rationing. I felt it was important to get the price gouging protections in place as soon as possible to protect the commonwealth’s consumers and businesses,” General Conway said.

http://www.wave3.com/global/st…

Governor Steve Beshear was quick to respond:

“I am outraged by the voracious practices of price gouging we are seeing,” Gov. Beshear said at a press conference Friday afternoon. “Today, I have taken an extraordinary step to protect the consumers of the commonwealth from these predators.”

The emergency declaration, issued before Hurricane Ike hits the coast, triggers several consumer protection measures.  Among them, it empowers the Attorney General to investigate and prosecute, where appropriate, those who sell gasoline, building supplies and other goods for predatory pricing in a time of disaster.

Gov. Beshear and Attorney General Jack Conway have partnered to make aggressive consumer protection a priority, launching an investigation earlier this summer into high gas prices in Louisville.

http://www.wave3.com/global/st…

This goes to show what Kentucky Democrats can do when they work together, fighting for what is right. Almost as soon as Gov. Beshear issued his order, gas prices in Paducah went from $4.59 and $4.55 a gallon to $3.99 and $3.95. Our former Republican Governor would not have dreamed of such a measure. These actions recieved quick praise from the KDP:

The Governor’s action today will allow many consumer protections to be put into force.  Under the order, Attorney General Jack Conway is empowered to investigate and, if appropriate, prosecute anyone who sells gasoline, building materials and other products at predatory pricing levels during a time of disaster.

If you have any specific information regarding price gouging practices at a gas station or retail outlet, please contact the Attorney General’s office.

On the heels of last week’s announcement to make health insurance available to more of Kentucky’s children, Governor Beshear has again demonstrated his leadership and commitment to Kentucky’s hard working families.

Sincerely,

Jennifer A. Moore

Chair, Kentucky Democratic Party

Heather Ryan, Democratic candidate in Kentucky’s First Congressional District where most of the almost-gouging was centered was also quick to praise our Democratic State leaders:

KUDOS goes out to Governor Beshear for issuing an Executive Order earlier today to prevent price gouging of gasoline and other essential supplies due to the impending hurricane in the Gulf Coast.  When we were returning from a campaign function last night, we witnessed two local gas stations raising their prices a whopping $0.90 a gallon.  I immediately called my campaign manager to ask if we had invaded another oil rich country – since that could be the only reason I could think of that would justify these huge price increases.  Upon hearing that we were still only illegally occupying the same oil rich countries, I realized that the citizens of Western Kentucky were experiencing even worse price gouging at the expense of an industry who has already taken so much for so long, but whose appetite is never satiated.  

Not surprisingly, after the emergency order, those two gas stations dropped their prices by $0.60 a gallon.  It is the leadership and protection from our Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General that helps stave off some of the effects of the greedy oil industry.  It is unfortunate and criminal that our representative in Congress does not feel the same responsibility toward those he represents.  Of course, why would he feel that loyalty?  The man doesn’t live in Kentucky and because of his financial conflict-of-interest in Big Oil, he is not effected the same by the outrageous price of gasoline.  Instead, his wallet increasingly benefits when Exxon and Chevron post record profits.  I intend to change that in November.  

Heather Ryan

Her opponents answer to high gas prices? Driving an empty tractor-trailer with his face on it all over Western Kentucky:

Kentucky Democrats have shown that they will fight for us once in office. With the election in Nov. up in the air, and our lead in the Congressional Generic Ballot dwindling, it is more important than ever that we stand up and fight for a Democrat that will make a difference in the Congress, Heather Ryan. She is right on the cusp of making big noise in this district, and will be filming her first T.V. ad in the next several days. Please help us get on the airwaves and defeat Exxon Ed Whitfield, and join “Fighting Kentucky Democrats” in representing what is right:

Anyone donating $30 or more will automatically get an awesome Ryan for Congress t-shirt sent to them!!

I will put in the first $30, who will match me??

Thanks to our Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and to Heather Ryan and Jennifer Moore for being great Democratic leaders. With leaders such as these, our state is definately looking blue!!

 

One of the many interesting features at 538.com, and one that they’ve particularly drilled into the heads of the blogosphere, is the notion of the “tipping point” states. In other words, which states are in the middle of the left-to-right spectrum and the likeliest to be the ones that put a presidential candidate over the required 270 electoral votes to win (and thus get the most emphasis)?

This left me wondering: is this something that can be applied at the state level to identify which counties are the likeliest to be the decisive ones in terms of which way the state falls? Of course, the method is a little different, because a state is won simply by reaching a plurality of votes, rather than through the complicated machinery of the Electoral College. So while a Democratic campaign might particularly emphasize the swing voters clustered in a state’s median counties, it would also certainly want to push turnout in strongly-Democratic urban areas and still try to mine as many votes dispersed around conservative rural areas. But in an era of micro-targeting (via cable, internet ads, direct mail, etc.), knowing where the decisive voters are located, and how an entire state pivots around them, seems critical.

Naturally, I don’t have access to up-to-the-minute county-by-county polling data, so what I tried is arranging every county in each state from highest Democratic percentage to lowest Democratic percentage, for both the presidential races in 2004 and 2000, and then finding in which county the 50% mark fell, in terms of total number of votes. As you’ll note, the usual location tends to be an affluent suburban county, home to the stereotypical moderate swing voter. The tipping point tends to be in a slightly Republican-leaning county (even in some bluish states like Minnesota), which reflects, well, that the Republicans won the last two presidential elections, as well as the heavy concentration of Democratic votes in a few urban counties in many states.

I’m restricting my list to the states where there are prominent statewide races this year, as well as a few states where there isn’t a prominent statewide race but that are key to the presidential race (yes, I know this is Swing State Project, but I also know what everyone is fixated on right now, with the realization that the presidential race is going to turn into yet another house-by-house battle in a few key swing states… so if nothing else, this can be a handy scorecard for watching election returns in November). Rather than list every single freakin’ county in each state, I’m listing only counties with more than 100,000 residents (c. 2000). I’m also listing the D and R percentages for each county for each year. The !!! indicates the county where the tipping point falls. (In a few cases, it fell in a small rural county instead, which I’ll mention in the footnotes.)

Let’s start with Colorado, which is on a lot of people’s minds right now. Other states are over the flip…

County	2004	County	2000
Denver	70/29	Denver	62/31
Boulder	66/32	Pueblo	54/42
Pueblo	53/46	Adams	50/44
Adams	51/48	Boulder	50/36
Arapahoe	47/51	Arapahoe	43/51
Larimer !!!	47/52	Jefferson !!!	43/51
Jefferson	47/52	Larimer	39/53
Weld	36/63	Weld	36/58
Douglas	33/67	Douglas	31/65
El Paso	32/67	El Paso	31/64
Mesa	32/67	Mesa	30/63

Florida

County	2004	County	2000
Broward	64/35	Broward	67/31
Leon	61/38	Palm Beach	62/35
Palm Beach	60/39	Leon	60/38
Alachua	56/43	Alachua	55/40
Miami-Dade	53/47	St. Lucie	53/44
St. Lucie	52/48	Volusia	53/45
Volusia	50/49	Miami-Dade	53/46
Orange	50/50	Osceola	51/47
Pinellas	50/50	Pinellas	50/46
Osceola	47/52	Orange	50/48
Hillsborough !!!	46/53	Hernando	50/47
Hernando	46/53	Pasco !!!	49/48
Sarasota	45/54	Hillsborough	47/50
Pasco	44/54	Sarasota	45/52
Charlotte	43/56	Manatee	45/53
Manatee	43/57	Polk	45/53
Citrus	42/57	Citrus	45/52
Martin	42/57	Brevard	45/53
Duval	42/58	Charlotte	44/53
Brevard	42/58	Marion	43/54
Seminole	41/58	Seminole	43/55
Marion	41/58	Martin	43/55
Polk	41/59	Lake	41/56
Indian River	39/60	Duval	41/57
Lee	39/60	Lee	40/58
Lake	39/61	Indian River	40/58
Collier	34/65	Escambia	35/63
Escambia	34/65	Collier	32/66
St. John’s	31/69	St. John’s	32/65
Bay	28/71	Bay	32/66
Clay	23/76	Clay	25/73
Santa Rosa	22/77	Santa Rosa	25/72
Okaloosa	22/78	Okaloosa	24/74

Georgia

County	2004	County	2000
DeKalb	73/27	DeKalb	70/27
Clayton	70/29	Clayton	65/33
Fulton	59/40	Fulton	58/40
Clarke	58/40	Richmond	55/44
Richmond	57/43	Muscogee	54/45
Muscogee	51/48	Clarke	52/41
Bibb	51/49	Bibb	50/48
Chatham	50/50	Chatham	49/49
Cobb !!!	37/62	Cobb !!!	37/60
Gwinnett	33/66	Houston	36/63
Houston	33/66	Gwinnett	32/64
Henry	33/67	Henry	31/66
Hall	21/78	Hall	27/70
Cherokee	20/79	Cherokee	23/73

Indiana

County	2004	County	2000
Lake	61/38	Lake	62/36
Monroe	53/45	La Porte	50/48
Marion	51/49	St. Joseph	49/49
La Porte	50/49	Vigo	48/50
St. Joseph	48/51	Marion	48/49
Vigo	46/53	Delaware	47/50
Porter	45/54	Porter	45/52
Delaware	43/56	Madison	45/54
Vanderburgh	41/59	Vanderburgh	44/54
Madison	40/59	Monroe	44/48
Tippecanoe	40/59	Tippecanoe *	39/56
Allen *	36/63	Allen	36/62
Elkhart	29/70	Elkhart	30/67
Hendricks	26/73	Johnson	28/70
Johnson	26/74	Hendricks	27/71
Hamilton	25/74	Hamilton	24/74

Maine

County	2004	County	2000
Cumberland	58/40	Androscoggin	53/41
Androscoggin	54/44	Kennebec	53/41
York !!!	53/45	Cumberland	52/41
Kennebec	53/45	York !!!	49/45
Penobscot	49/49	Penobscot	45/49

Michigan

County	2004	County	2000
Wayne	69/30	Wayne	69/29
Washtenaw	63/35	Genesee	63/35
Genesee	60/39	Washtenaw	60/36
Ingham	58/41	Ingham	57/39
Muskegon	55/44	Bay	55/43
Bay	54/45	Muskegon	55/43
Saginaw	53/46	Saginaw	54/44
Kalamazoo	51/48	Monroe	51/47
Oakland !!!	50/49	Macomb	50/48
Macomb	49/50	Calhoun	50/48
Monroe	49/51	Oakland !!!	49/48
Calhoun	48/51	Kalamazoo	48/48
Eaton	46/53	St. Clair	48/49
St. Clair	45/54	Eaton	47/50
Berrien	44/55	Jackson	45/52
Jackson	43/56	Berrien	43/55
Kent	40/59	Livingston	38/59
Livingston	36/63	Kent	38/59
Allegan	36/63	Allegan	35/63
Ottawa	28/72	Ottawa	27/71

Minnesota

County	2004	County	2000
St. Louis	65/34	St. Louis	60/33
Ramsey	63/36	Ramsey	57/36
Hennepin	59/39	Hennepin	54/39
Dakota !!!	48/50	Dakota !!!	47/48
Washington	48/51	Anoka	47/48
Olmsted	47/52	Washington	46/48
Anoka	46/53	Olmsted	43/52
Stearns	43/55	Stearns	40/52

Mississippi

County	2004	County	2000
Hinds	59/40	Hinds	53/43
Harrison !!!	36/63	Harrison *	36/61
Jackson	30/69	Jackson	31/67
De Soto	27/72	De Soto	27/71
Rankin	20/79	Rankin	19/80

Missouri

County	2004	County	2000
St. Louis city	80/19	St. Louis city	77/20
Jackson	58/41	Jackson	59/38
St. Louis	54/45	St. Louis	51/46
Boone	50/50	Jefferson	50/48
Jefferson	49/50	Clay	49/49
Clay !!!	46/53	Boone !!!	48/48
St. Charles	41/59	St. Charles	42/56
Greene	37/62	Greene	40/57
Jasper	29/71	Jasper	31/66

New Hampshire

County	2004	County	2000
Strafford	56/44	Strafford	51/43
Merrimack	52/47	Merrimack	48/47
Hillsborough !!!	48/51	Hillsborough !!!	47/49
Rockingham	47/52	Rockingham	46/49

New Mexico

County	2004	County	2000
Santa Fe	71/28	Santa Fe	65/28
Bernalillo !!!	51/47	Dona Ana	51/46
Dona Ana	51/48	Bernalillo !!!	49/47
San Juan	33/66	San Juan	35/62

North Carolina

County	2004	County	2000
Durham	68/32	Durham	64/36
Orange	67/32	Orange	63/36
Robeson	53/47	Robeson	60/39
Mecklenburg	52/48	Cumberland	50/49
Guilford	50/49	Guilford	49/51
Buncombe	49/50	Mecklenburg	48/51
Wake	49/51	Wake	46/53
Cumberland	48/52	Pitt	46/54
Pitt	46/53	Buncombe *	45/54
Forsyth !!!	46/54	New Hanover	44/55
New Hanover	44/56	Forsyth	43/56
Alamance	38/61	Wayne	38/61
Wayne	38/62	Alamance	37/62
Cabarrus	33/67	Onslow	34/65
Rowan	32/67	Iredell	34/65
Catawba	32/67	Rowan	34/66
Gaston	32/68	Johnston	33/66
Johnston	32/68	Cabarrus	33/66
Iredell	32/68	Gaston	33/67
Onslow	30/69	Catawba	32/67
Union	29/70	Union	32/68
Davidson	29/71	Davidson	31/68
Randolph	25/74	Randolph	27/73

Ohio

County	2004	County	2000
Cuyahoga	67/33	Cuyahoga	63/33
Mahoning	63/37	Mahoning	61/35
Trumbull	62/38	Trumbull	60/36
Lucas	60/40	Lucas	58/39
Summit	57/43	Lorain	53/43
Lorain	56/43	Summit	53/43
Franklin	54/45	Ashtabula	50/45
Portage	53/46	Portage	50/45
Ashtabula	53/46	Montgomery	50/48
Montgomery	51/49	Franklin	49/48
Stark !!!	51/49	Clark	49/48
Clark	49/51	Stark !!!	47/49
Lake	48/51	Columbiana	46/49
Columbiana	47/52	Lake	45/50
Hamilton	47/53	Wood	43/53
Wood	46/53	Hamilton	43/54
Medina	43/57	Medina	40/56
Richland	40/60	Richland	39/57
Greene	39/61	Greene	38/58
Wayne	38/61	Licking	37/60
Licking	38/62	Fairfield	35/62
Fairfield	37/63	Wayne	35/61
Butler	34/66	Butler	34/63
Delaware	34/66	Allen	32/65
Allen	33/66	Delaware	31/66
Clermont	29/71	Clermont	30/67
Warren	28/72	Warren	28/70

Oregon

County	2004	County	2000
Multnomah	72/27	Multnomah	64/28
Lane	58/40	Lane	52/40
Washington	52/46	Washington	49/46
Clackamas !!!	49/50	Clackamas !!!	47/48
Marion	44/54	Marion	44/51
Jackson	43/55	Jackson	39/54
Deschutes	42/56	Deschutes	38/56
Linn	38/60	Linn	38/57
Douglas	33/66	Douglas	30/64

Pennsylvania

County	2004	County	2000
Philadelphia	80/19	Philadelphia	80/18
Allegheny	57/42	Lackawanna	60/36
Delaware	57/42	Fayette	57/40
Lackawanna	56/42	Allegheny	57/40
Montgomery	56/44	Delaware	54/43
Erie	54/46	Montgomery	54/44
Fayette	53/46	Washington	53/44
Luzerne	51/48	Erie	53/44
Bucks	51/48	Beaver	53/44
Beaver	51/48	Luzerne	52/44
Lehigh !!!	51/48	Northampton	51/45
Washington	50/50	Bucks !!!	50/46
Northampton	50/49	Cambria	50/46
Monroe	50/50	Mercer	49/47
Cambria	49/51	Lehigh	49/48
Mercer	48/51	Monroe	47/50
Centre	48/52	Westmoreland	46/52
Chester	48/52	Schuylkill	45/51
Berks	46/53	Dauphin	44/53
Dauphin	46/54	Berks	44/53
Schuylkill	45/55	Chester	44/53
Westmoreland	44/56	Centre	43/53
Cumberland	36/64	York	36/61
York	36/64	Butler	35/62
Butler	35/64	Cumberland	35/62
Lancaster	34/66	Lebanon	35/62
Blair	33/66	Blair	35/63
Lebanon	33/67	Lycoming	34/63
Lycoming	31/68	Lancaster	31/66
Franklin	28/71	Franklin	30/67

Virginia

County	2004	County	2000
Richmond city	70/29	Richmond city	65/31
Arlington	68/31	Portsmouth city	63/36
Alexandria city	67/32	Norfolk city	62/35
Norfolk cit	62/37	Alexandria city	61/34
Portsmouth city	61/38	Arlington	60/34
Hampton city	57/42	Hampton city	57/41
Fairfax	53/46	Newport News city	51/47
Newport News city	52/47	Fairfax	47/49
Prince William	46/53	Chesapeake city	45/53
Henrico	46/54	Prince William	45/53
Loudoun *	44/56	Henrico *	43/55
Chesapeake city	42/57	Virginia Beach city	42/56
Virginia Beach city	40/59	Loudoun	41/56
Chesterfield	37/63	Chesterfield	35/63

Washington

County	2004	County	2000
King	65/34	King	60/34
Thurston	56/43	Thurston	52/41
Whatcom	53/45	Snohomish	52/44
Snohomish !!!	53/46	Pierce !!!	51/44
Kitsap	51/47	Kitsap	49/45
Pierce	50/48	Whatcom	46/46
Skagit	48/50	Clark	46/50
Clark	47/52	Skagit	45/49
Spokane	43/55	Spokane	43/52
Yakima	39/60	Yakima	38/59
Benton	32/66	Benton	33/64

The 2004 tipping point in Indiana is Fayette County; Allen is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in Indiana is Wayne County; Tippecanoe is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in Mississippi is Scott County; Harrison is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in North Carolina is Duplin County; Buncombe is the closest large county.

The 2004 tipping point in Virginia is Nottoway County; Loudoun is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in Virginia is Dinwiddie County; Henrico is the closest large county.

(I know that, short of looking at a map, it’s not always readily apparent what cities are in a county or where the county is, so if you have any geographic questions, feel free to ask in the comments.)

The Swing State Project: Often imitated, never beaten.

It’s beer o’clock. Have at it.

Hinds County Circuit Judge Tomie Green is ordering Haley Barbour’s illegal ballot to be recalled:

Judge Green’s ruling is that the Wicker, Musgrove race should be with the other senate race on the ballot. Meaning it will be just under the race for president.

And because sample ballots have already been sent out to county election commissioners, Judge Green says those ballots must be recalled and corrected as soon as possible.

Attorneys for Governor Haley Barbour and Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann are expected to appeal.

Knowing how perverse the state of justice is in the Mississippi Supreme Court, this victory could be short-lived. We’ll see.

Cooper & Secrest for Mike Montagano (9/9-10, likely voters, 4/24,26-27 in parens):

Mike Montagano (D): 37 (28)

Mark Souder (R-inc): 50 (55)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Montagano has been making great progress, cutting Souder’s lead by half since April. This is a deeply Republican district that gave 68% of its vote to Bush in 2004, but Souder has been dramatically under-performing in recent years, including a 54-46 win over physician Tom Hayhurst in 2006 — a performance so pathetic that the NRCC was forced to spend $225K in his defense.

Blue Indiana gives us some more details:

Only 30% of the electorate consider themselves “strong Souder voters.”

Mike Montagano has increased his name ID from 16% to 59%, and of voters who recognize both candidates, Montagano leads Souder by a 47% to 41% margin

Of voters who have seen Montagano’s television advertisements, he leads 47% to 37%.

Montagano leads Souder among Independent voters by an 8-point margin.

Souder’s job performance is still sub-fifty, and 44% have a negative opinion of him as the district’s representation in Congress.

Overall, these are some pretty awful numbers for a GOP incumbent in a district this red. Will it be enough to put Montagano over the top? I’m not sure, but he seems poised to at least give Souder another serious scare.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.