NY-26: DCCC Adds Kryzan to Red to Blue

From the DCCC Press:

Following her victory in the Democratic Primary in New York’s 26th Congressional District, Alice Kryzan has immediately been added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program for open seats. Alice Kryzan earned a spot in the competitive program by establishing significant local support and skillfully showing New York’s voters that she stands for change and will represent new priorities.

“Congratulations to Alice Kryzan on her primary victory,” said DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen. “Alice Kryzan is a strong leader who will fight to make college and health care more affordable, and lower gas prices. Alice Kryzan will be a formidable candidate in the general election. With 55 days left to make her case to the voters of the 26th district, the Red to Blue program will give Alice the financial and structural edge to be even more competitive.”

The DCCC has also released a viability memo on this race, indicating that they still consider this one very much on the big board of opportunities. I wonder if EMILY’s List will decide to make a bit of penance for its embarrassing support of Nikki Tinker against Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen earlier this summer by throwing their fundraising support to Kryzan. Might be a good idea for them.

Many have asked if Jon Powers can remove himself from the Working Families line on the November ballot. The short answer? He can’t. But if he endorses and campaigns for Kryzan, his votes should be minimal.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

IA-05: Hidden Gem–Hubler takes on Steve King!

Cross posted at dailykos: Ia-o5: Hubler takes on Steve King!

Here’s a campaign I am getting excited about–Rob Hubler in IA-05 . I’d like to encourage you all to take a look at this (surprisingly) competitive race. We’ve got a real chance to send a progressive, democratic, smart, thoughtful, mature candidate to congress from what is traditionally considered a deep red district. Bonus points: we get to send one of the worst congressmen in the world packing!

We get behind races all over the country: Darcy Burner, Andrew Rice, John Hall, Jon Powers, Scott Kleeb, Eric Massa, Gary Trauner, Charlie Brown-I think this is one race we haven’t looked at closely yet that is worthy of our attention. I’d like to see if we can get some energy  for IA-05 and Rob Hubler here in the blogosphere.

So what’s a nice blue state girl like me doing touting a +8 red district?  Follow me below the fold to find out why this red district is well-positioned to exchange a great progressive candidate for one of the worst wingnuts in Congress.

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So first, why is “Democracylover in NYC” touting a race in Iowa?

I was honored and thrilled to be accepted into Russ Feingold’s Patriot Corps this fall and was looking forward to going to Iowa to work on Rob Hubler’s campaign . Sadly, (and I do mean sadly) I was unable to make it for logistical and financial reasons. But I still got a good look at Hubler and when I saw what a great race this is, I was determined to help, even if I’m stuck in blue New York.

I am convinced that we have a real shot at winning in this traditionally deep red district. Let me describe to you why and how. Then I encourage each of you, if you agree, to help out in whatever way you can (contributions, message amplification etc). Below my very loose analysis (I am not a campaign wonk) of why I think this is a great race.

Throw the bum out…

First for those who are motivated to “throw the bums out” there ain’t no bigger bum in congress than Steve King. I won’t spend too much time on the negative (though for those that like that sort of thing you may want to look at www.kingwatch.org for a comprehensive list at King’s positions, gaffes and general ickiness. I’ll only say a few things

1) He’s the guy that infamously said Islamic fundamentalists would be dancing in the streets when Barack Hussein Obama is elected president…

2) Here’s a recent interview with King in which our hero takes his bigotry  further as he slams Obama . He also comes out pro-“drill, baby, drill” and pro strict constructionist judges. Not exactly the positions we (and most Iowans, as I understand it) would like to see.

3) King has a net negative job approval rating.  And  some well respected and well-connected Iowa republicans are quietly working to get rid of someone even they perceive as an embarrassment to their party.

4) He was voted worst person in the world…by CNBC!!!!

Replace the bum with a true progressive:

First it’s important to remember this is the first time  a serious candidate is running against King. Rob’s positions are good, strong, progressive and much better aligned to his constituents positions than King’s.

Rob Hubler is a serious candidate, who supportsuniversal healthcare, a hybrid economy, andopposed retroactive immunity for telecoms .

And Rob’s personal story is unique and full of heart. He’s a decorated veteran who served his country seven years on the first nuclear-powered submarine, and as a nuclear plant operator. He went on to an impressive career in progressive politics working to help Dick Clark and Tom Harkin among others. Hubler left politics in 1989 to follow his calling as a presbyterian minister (like his father and uncles before him), pastoring churches throughout the midwest and California. He retired from the ministry in 2000 to take care of his dying father and sick aunt (while teaching disabled children) before returning to politics at the request of friends and former colleagues who felt he could make a difference. This is a candidate who puts the heart in heartland.

The situation on the ground:

Rob  has spent 18 months running an aggressive campaign and positioning his organization for a strong finish. The campaign has 6 field offices open with a full complement of paid and volunteer veteran staff. The Iowa coordinated campaign is running canvasses and has regional full time staff working with Hubler’s group.  Meanwhile Hubler is coordinating with the huge Iowa Obama organization which has placed 20 organizers in the 5th district alone (!).  All the Obama data is shared and they are able to base targeted mail on independents they already know are supporting a democratic ticket.

There is growing support for Rob’s campaign. He’s brought Joe Trippi as Media Advisor on board, and beloved former congressman, Dean supporter and local icon Berkley Bedell is now General Chair to the campaign. Bedell was in congress for 12 years, was known for his populist stances and for  winning deep republican counties with 60% of the vote. Rob’s communications director, Keith Dinsmore, ran 1/3 of the newspapers in the state, has worked on many campaigns, and knows how to talk with Iowans. It’s a great, thoughtful campaign.

Rob has been selected for funding and staff support from the Patriot Corps as noted above, and he has active support from Governer Chet Culver, former Governer Vilsack, and Senator Harkin.

Meanwhile in King’s Court:

Let’s  take a look at King’s organization…Well, he has his son, who is a car salesman, paid as his manager. He has no campaign offices and no staff except a spokeswoman. That’s it. Seriously. He has no plan on the ground. This is a major weakness, folks. We can hit King before he knows what happened.

What about the famous republican “War Chest”? Surely King has money to burn? King had as of mid August, less than a quarter of a million dollars. This is the least amount of money of any incumbent in Iowa, Democrat or Republican.

Can we win? You bet we can!

I know, I know it’s all very nice unless we have a viable race. This is a red district …yep, that’s true. At the bottom, I know people don’t want to waste time and money where they don’t think it can accomplish much. Well let me tell you this could be one of the most satisfying victories ever on election day. Let’s  take a look at some recent polling numbers.

The first and only poll conducted in this race, shows that these candidates are neck-and-neck. In a nutshell, likely voters are tipping in Hubler’s favor with dissent in republican ranks and independents breaking democratic. All that’s missing? Name recognition and some national support. A couple of ads in the district could put Hubler over the top.

The findings are so compelling I’ll let them speak for themselves**:

Our recent poll results indicate that Iowa’s 5th Congressional District has officially reached the tipping point, as the generic ballot between any “Democrat” and a “Republican” for Congress starts out virtually even, 36% to 38%.   Key results are as follows:

– The first finding of note, as mentioned above, is that the generic ballot choice, one without any information about the candidates, is tied at 36% Democrat and 38% Republican. In addition, the key subgroup of Independents favor the “Democrat”  by a 35% to 29% margin.  

– After hearing one positive statement about Hubler and nothing critical of King, voters are quickly able to reevaluate the congressional race, preferring Hubler over King by 47% to 30%.  This again underscores how potentially fluid this electorate is.  Hubler is a different type of nominee for this district, and his views match up more closely with voters then their current congressman’s.

King’s job rating is a poor showing of only 36% excellent/good to 43% only fair/poor; aside from the fact that it is a net negative showing, one should note that 36% approval is a long way from 50%; voters are clearly connecting the dots between their discontent and King’s work in Washington.

**Four hundred registered, likely 2008 voters were interviewed.  The poll was designed to assess the strengths and weaknesses of Rob Hubler and his opponent Steve King as candidates for Congress.

Likely voters in the 5th district of Iowa are ready to fire Steve King.  Our challenge is to get the resources in place to communicate Rob’s message so that they know him well enough to hire him as their new Congressman.

So what can you do to make a difference?

As always, contribute, contribute, contribute. And get the word out. As we know we’re all committed to more and better democrats from everywhere.

Also just because I couldn’t get out there, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t yourselves. If you are anywhere near Western Iowa in the next few weeks, please get out and help. I’ve been in touch with these guys and they are a great, great team. Also there are Obama offices all over the state. We can turn Iowa blue, boys and girls, and we should do it!

So take a closer look. See if this is someone you can get behind. Write to your friends who think nationally about Hubler if you like what you see. Bug the DFA. Tell the good Doctor to take a close look. And put him on your support list if you can.

This is Democracylover in NYC with her heart in the heartland…

Contribute to Rob Hubler

NJ-07: Stender Edges Lance by 3 in New Poll

Anzalone-Lizst for Linda Stender (8/20-25):

Linda Stender (D): 36

Leonard Lance (R): 33

Michael Hsing (I): 9

Tom Abrams (I): 2

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Hsing is a Republican councilman from Bridgewater who is running as an independent, and Abrams, who ran on the “Withdraw Our Troops Now” line in 2006 (might as well have been the “Stay In Iraq Forever” line, but I digress), is again running as an anti-war independent. Without those two pretenders on the ballot, Stender leads Lance by 43-42.

Up the ballot, this district is incredibly tight, with a slight GOP lean: McCain leads Obama by 45-43. It’s worth mentioning that Bush carried New Jersey’s 7th twice — by a single point in 2000, and six points four years later. Looks like it could be another close one. I’ve been told that the DCCC has just gone up on the air in this district with a negative spot against Lance.

I’m still trying to obtain some key info about this poll — including its margin of error and the date lines, and will update this post accordingly once I get the details. (Update: Got it.)

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

NM-Sen: Udall Sits on 7-Point Lead

Rasmussen (9/8, likely voters, 8/20 in parens):

Tom Udall (D): 51 (52)

Steve Pearce (R): 44 (44)

(MoE: ±4%)

Republicans are coming home for Steve Pearce — that much is clear from the crosstabs. Pearce now enjoys 86% support from Republicans, up significantly from 77% in July. This isn’t that surprising — with groups like the Club For Growth beaning Udall, the GOP was bound to rally the base.

We still feel very confident about this race, and SSP rates it as Likely Democratic. With no help from the NRSC, Pearce has extremely slim odds barring a major stumble by Tom Udall.

Bonus finding: John McCain is nosing Obama by 49-47 in the same poll.

AK-Sen: Stevens Bounce in Effect in New Poll

Rasmussen (9/9, likely voters, 7/30 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 48 (50)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (37)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Stevens isn’t dead yet — no doubt about it. This is the third poll confirming the incredible closeness of this race (releases by Moore Information and Ivan Moore being the other two).

It’s clear that even with the taint of corruption, Stevens is still gonna be one tough sumbitch to beat. Let’s hope for a conviction.

Bonus finding: With Palin on the ticket, McCain is now utterly wrecking shop in Alaska: 64-33. Not very surprising.

GA-08: Now Goddard Steps In It

Lynn Westmoreland got nailed for referring to Barack Obama as “uppity” last week. Well, it turns out he’s not the only one, suggesting more of a pattern and practice by white Georgian politicians than an innocent misuse of what one might mistakenly think is a racially-neutral word.

On Thursday (the same day as Westmoreland’s gaffe) Retired Air Force major general Rick Goddard, who’s running against Jim Marshall in the neighboring Eighth District, referred to MSNBC reporter Ron Allen, who is African-American, as “uppity” while being interviewed on a Macon radio news show.

Last night, Newt Gingrich disarmed a very uppity newscaster who tried to question him on the capabilities and leadership of Governor Palin.

Now unlike Westmoreland, who’s not in any immediate electoral peril, Goddard is a challenger and was considered a strong recruit against the perenially-endangered Marshall. This may have made Goddard’s slog a little more uphill.

NC-Sen: Hagan Edges Dole in New Poll

This is more like it.

Public Policy Polling (9/9, likely voters, 8/20-23 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 43 (42)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 42 (39)

Chris Cole (L): 6 (5)

Undecided: 9 (13)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Ahh, that feels a lot better than that funked up SUSA poll from last night showing Dole up 8 (and Johnny Mac up 20). In this poll, Democrats have a more reasonable 49%-36% advantage in the crosstabs, compared to the one-point GOP advantage in SUSA’s latest and greatest.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 48-44 in the same poll.

UPDATE by Crisitunity: Bonus bonus finding: Dem Bev Perdue is up over Republican Pat McCrory by only 41-40 in the governor’s race, down from 43-38 in the last PPP poll.

SPECIAL UPDATE by J. Hell: Bev Perdue has released an internal poll by Garin-Hart-Yang (9/5-7): Perdue +6, McCain +3, Dole +2.

9/9 Primary Results Round-up

A quick round-up of last night’s congressional and gubernatorial primaries:

  • DE-Gov (D): State Treasurer Jack Markell edged Lt. Gov. John Carney by 1,700 votes for the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Gov. Ruth Ann Minner. Markell will face Republican Bill Lee in November.
  • DE-AL (D): Children’s rights activist Karen Hartley-Nagle beat Mike Miller by a 55-34 margin for the right to take on GOP Rep. Mike Castle in November. Kossack Jerry “Possum” Northington gobbled up 10% of the vote.
  • MN-Sen (D): Al Franken jogged past attorney Priscilla Lord Faris by a 65-30 margin for the Dem nomination against Norm Coleman.
  • MN-01 (R): Physician Brian Davis schooled state Sen. Dick Day by 67-33 for the right to challenge Democratic Rep. Tim Walz. I guess it just wasn’t a Dick Day Afternoon.
  • NH-01 (R): Former Rep. Jeb Bradley squeaked by former state Health Commissioner John Stephen by a 51-47 margin for the GOP nod against frosh Dem Rep. Carol Shea Porter.
  • NH-02 (R): Radio personality Jennifer Horn beat state Sen. Bob Clegg by a 40-34 margin for the dubious prize of a GOP nomination in this D+2.7 district. Horn faces steep odds against Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes in November.
  • NY-10 (D): Crusty Democratic Rep. Ed Towns held back a primary challenge from former reality TV star Kevin Powell, winning with a comfortable 67-33 spread.
  • NY-13 (D & R): NYC Councilman Mike McMahon easily dispatched ’06 candidate Steve Harrison by a 75-25 margin for the Dem nod for this open seat. In what has been the most pathetic offering of candidates by the Staten Island GOP in decades, unpopular ex-Assemblyman Robert Straniere bounced unpopular physician Jamhsad Wyne by 59-41.
  • NY-21 (D): Ex-Assemblyman Paul Tonko nabbed the Dem nod to replace retiring Rep. Mike McNulty in this D+8.7 district by 39-30 over former Hillary Clinton aide Tracey Brooks.
  • NY-26 (D): I believe this is called a “murder-suicide”. Iraq Vet Jon Powers and perennial candidate (and billionaire nativist industrialist) Jack Davis were trounced by unheralded environmental attorney Alice Kryzan, who won the Dem nod for this open seat with 42% of the vote to Powers’ 36% and Davis’ 23%. Kryzan will go up against businessman Chris Lee, who is partially self-funding his campaign, in November.

NY, MN Primary Results Thread

Polls have now closed in New York and Minnesota. Lots of sideshows here, but NY-26 is by far the biggest marquee race of the night.

RESULTS: NY (AP) | MN-01 (AP) | MN-Sen (AP)

11:38PM: The AP has called it for Brian Davis in MN-01. Al Franken’s at 66%-30%, which doesn’t strike me as so hot.

10:53PM: It’s now official — Alice Kryzan is the Dem nominee in NY-26. She leads by 1200 votes with 4% outstanding.

10:42PM: Amusing tidbit of the day: The loser of the Dem primary in NY-13, Steven Harrison, claimed more votes than the winner of the GOP primary, Robert “Weiner King of Manhattan” Straniere, by 3,805 to 3,591 with 98% reporting.

10:36PM: Checking in on Minnesota, Franken leads by 68%-28% over Priscilla Lord Faris with 40% reporting. In MN-01, Brian Davis leads Dick Day by 68%-32% with 38% of precincts reporting. I guess it wasn’t a Dick Day afternoon.

10:22PM: 91% in, and Kryzan leads by 1300 votes. I think we can stick a fork in this one. With Powers still on the ballot as the Working Families Party candidate, I think we can strike this district off the map of Democratic pick-up opportunities.

10:10PM: 85% in, and Kryzan still leads by 995 votes. Tonko with a big 42%-29% lead over Brooks in NY-21.

10:04PM: 41%-36% now, but the gap is now 1000 votes for Kryzan, with 82% reporting.

10:00PM: Powers just closed the gap a bit, but Kryzan still leads by 42%-36% (900 votes) with 69% reporting.

9:57PM: In NY-21, Paul Tonko has huge lead over Tracey Brooks with 11% reporting: 59%-19% (1200 votes).

9:44PM: 41% reporting now, and Kryzan is building her lead: 45%-32%-23% (a 1300 vote margin over Powers). On the one hand, it’s lovely to see Davis in third so far, but Kryzan is not exactly an A-game general election candidate.

9:39PM: 25% in now for NY-26, and Kryzan still leads: 43%-33%-24% (Powers-Davis). Could Powers and Davis have bludgeoned each other to death, allowing Kryzan to slip up the middle? Over in NY-10, Towns is back up with a 20% lead with 22% reporting.

9:33PM: Over in NY-26, Kryzan has an early lead with 22% reporting: 43% Kryzan, 33% Powers, 24% Davis.

9:29PM ET: With 9% reporting in NY-13, McMahon and Straniere have comfortable early leads. Over in NY-10, with 3% in, Kevin Powell leads Edolphus Towns by 10% (43 votes).