DE, NH Primary Results Thread

Polls have now closed in Delaware and New Hampshire, where we’ll be keeping an eye on the GOP primaries in NH-01 and NH-02, and the Dem race for DE-Gov, and for the super curious — DE-AL.

RESULTS: DE-AL (AP) | DE-Gov (AP) | NH-01 and NH-02 (AP)

11:31PM: The AP calls NH-01 for Jeb Bradley. I’ve gotta say, for a two-term former Rep, this was a pretty mediocre showing. This was a damaging primary for the GOP, with Bradley receiving scorn from local editorial boards for his misleading attack ads. All year he’s shown little fire in the belly in terms of fundraising, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the DCCC greets him to the general election campaign with a prompt punch in the nose soon. In short: don’t believe the hype of flawed UNH polls until we see some better information.

10:32PM: With 76% in, Bradley is up by 815 votes. Horn seems to have a comfortable lead at 1300 votes with 71% reporting.

9:53PM: Bradley now leads by 700 votes with 59% in. Horn is back up by 700 votes as well, with 54% reporting.

9:43PM: In NH-01, with 54% in, Bradley is back up by 400 votes. In NH-02, Horn’s lead has whittled down to 20 votes with 47% in.

9:42PM: Jack Markell narrowly wins the Dem gubernatorial nomination in Delaware.

9:26PM: 44% in, and Stephen’s lead is down to a mere 40 votes. If he doesn’t have any other strongholds with Manchester-like margins, I’m not sure that he’ll be able to hold onto the lead for much longer.

9:17PM: With 42% in Stephen has pulled ahead by 49-48 (200 votes) based on his strong performance in Manchester, which is now all in. Horn still leads by 3% (250 votes) with 33% in.

9:14PM: Over in Delaware, with 61% reporting, Markell is up by 52-48 (2500 votes), and Karen Hartley-Nagle has won the right to get creamed by Mike Castle in November. Possum with the big 1-0%.

8:58PM: With 29% reporting, Jeb has opened up a 55-42 lead over Stephen. Horn is up 200 votes (4%) in NH-02 with 22% reporting.

8:44PM: Over in Delaware, Markell is up with a slim lead over Carney (53-47) with 4% in. In the House race, Possum is stuck in a borrow at 10%.

8:39PM ET: With 26% in, Bradley is leading Stephen by 50-47 (or 170 votes), but Stephen has a sizable early lead in Manchester. In NH-01, Horn leads Clegg by 42-34. Dismal turnout.

NC-Sen: Dole Leads by 8 in Funky SUSA Poll

SurveyUSA (9/6-8, likely voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 40 (41)

Liddy Dole (R-inc): 48 (46)

Chris Cole (L): 7 (7)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

We’ve seen Kay Hagan surging ahead in other polls, so what’s the dealio here?

Well, this is a weekend poll (which any pollster worth his salt will tell you is a less than ideal time to field a survey) taken immediately after an effective GOP convention. Apparently, McCain’s electrifying convention speech and his selection of moose huntress Sarah Palin has awoken a zombie Republican army, as the poll’s crosstabs reveal a partisan sample of 41% R, 40% D. That’s a dramatic jump from the 46% D, 33% R partisan sample that SUSA found in August.

The findings trickle up the ballot, too: McCain has a monstrous 20% lead over Obama, and Pat McCrory leads Bev Perdue by eight points.

No, I’m not putting much stock in these numbers, although it’s possible that the GOP (especially McCain) received a mini-bump. Our friend Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling doesn’t believe these numbers, either, and that firm is fielding a new poll starting tonight in order to set the record straight.

On Winning the West

(Proudly cross-posted at C4O)

I know you’ve heard this. I have, too. “The battleground has moved West.” To a large extent, this is true. And while we probably will may plenty of attention to traditional swing states like Florida & Ohio this fall, we probably also will be spending much more time analyzing developments in places like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Montana.

But you know what? The Presidential Race isn’t the only interesting race out west. Let’s take a look at some extra goodies that we can look forward to.

Nevada is a critical state for Democrats this fall. First off, this state is a top target for Barack Obama to make the goal of at least 270 electoral votes. But in addition, we have two important Congressional races that can earn us two much needed seats as we expand our majority.

The 3rd Congressional District is one of the hottest races out West, if not the hottest. Dina Titus is running strong in a district where Democrats now outnumber Republicans. Both the Nevada Democratic Party and the Obama campaign are working hard here, and the key for them will be turning out all the newly registered Democrats while also winning over the swing voters that decide both Presidential elections and Congressional elections here in suburban Las Vegas. The Bush-McCain GOP incumbent Jon Porter is running scared, and we can tell. Dina Titus even has new ads on the air, and with our support she’ll have everything she needs to win.

The 2nd Congressional District may have been tradionally a Republican stronghold, but Jill Derby is changing that. The race is competitive, and the Bush-McCain GOP footsoldier Dean Heller is already throwing everything but the kitchen sink to maintain his edge. We have the power to hold Heller’s feet to the fire, and ultimately help Derby give Heller the boot.

Although Arizona may be John McCain’s home state, that isn’t stopping Democrats from competing hard here. And in addition to the Presidential race, we have a great candidate in Ann Kirkpatrick who looks to replace the corrupt (and retiring) GOPer Rick Renzi. Ann Kirkpatrick has worked hard for her community, has real Arizona values, and is running to bring about real change. This is one of our best chances at picking up a seat out west, so let’s take it!

We all know New Mexico is one of our top swing states that we can turn blue. But in addition to Obama’s victory, we can also send another Democrat to Congress! Martin Heinrich is running strong in this Albuquerque district… In fact, so strong that he’s now taken the lead in the latest independent poll! The voters now see that Republican Darren White is just another Bush-Cheney sycophant, and they’re ready for real change.

OK, so I know these aren’t all of the great races that we’re discovering out West. However, I hope that this gives you an idea of what’s really at stake. If we play our cards right, we may not only wind up with a President Obama next January, but also with more and better Democrats in Congress. But if we don’t stand up for our Democrats now, we can’t win.

So please, stand with us. If you live in any of these areas, help out with the campaign. And no matter where you are, support your party, your values, and your candidates. Are you ready to win? I am! 🙂

DE, MN, NH, NY Primary Predictions Thread

There are a whole lot of primaries that will be decided tonight. Most of them are sideshows, but a few of them are real races. Here’s everything of remote interest:

  • DE-Gov (D): Jack Markell vs. John Carney
  • DE-AL (D): Moose vs. Squirrel Jerry “Possum” Northington vs. Karen Hartley-Nagle and Mike Miller
  • MN-Sen (D): Al Franken vs. Priscilla Lord Faris
  • MN-01 (R): Dick Day vs. Brian Davis
  • NH-01 (R): Jeb Bradley vs. John Stephen
  • NH-02 (R): Jennifer Horn vs. Bob Clegg and various losers
  • NY-10 (D): Ed Towns vs. Kevin Powell
  • NY-13 (D & R): Mike McMahon vs. Stephen Harrison; Jamshad Wyne vs. Robert “Weiner King of Manhattan” Straniere
  • NY-21 (D): Paul Tonko vs. Tracey Brooks vs. Phil Steck vs. Darius Shahinfar
  • NY-26 (D): Crazy Jack Davis vs. Alice Kryzan vs. John Powers

Got any predictions?

WA-Gov: Rossi Ekes Out Lead

SurveyUSA (9/5-7, likely voters, 7/18-20 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 47 (50)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (48)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

In Washington, SurveyUSA comes out with the first poll since March giving GOP challenger Dino Rossi a lead. Two thoughts: this poll was taken over the weekend, at the very peak of the afterglow from the Republican convention, and Rossi has also been hitting the airwaves hard with ads (although that looks to continue for the foreseeable future… the Republican Governor’s Association, not having many other places to spend its money, gave Rossi $1 million on Aug. 21).

Although the crosstabs look quite normal, there’s also something kind of fishy about how some of the numbers break down. In May, Gregoire led by 24 points among women, and trailed by 20 points among men. Today, Gregoire and Rossi are tied among women, and Rossi leads by 2 among men. The Palin pick couldn’t have had that much of an effect, could it? (Especially since polls have generally indicated that pick was more popular with men than women.) In addition, the same sample gave Obama a lead of only 49-45, which is the smallest lead he’s had in Washington since February.

The Pollster.com graph for the race can be seen here.

MS-Sen-B: GOP Goons Move Race to Bottom of the Ballot

More Republican ballot box bullshit:

Over the objection of state Attorney General Jim Hood, the state sample ballot to be used in the November general election will have the U.S. Senate race between Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker at the end of the ballot.

Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann recommended to Gov. Haley Barbour today during a meeting of the state Election Commission that the special election between Musgrove, a Democrat, and Wicker, a Republican, be placed at the end of the ballot.

Barbour approved the recommendation.

All in all, this is a pretty brazen move designed to discourage first-time voters — many of which are expected to be African-American Obama Democrats — from casting a ballot in the state’s hotly-contested Senate special election. Barbour and the boys really went to great pains in order to hide this race at the tail end of the ballot.

Full statement from the Ronnie Musgrove campaign after the jump.

UPDATE: A local judge has blocked the ballots from being distributed after a restraining order was filed by Pike County Election Commissioner Trudy Berger earlier this afternoon.

Secretary of State Presents Unlawful Ballot, Buries US Senate Race in Ballot

Secretary Hosemann Unable to Cite any Statute to Move Race from Top

Jackson, MS- Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann today presented an unlawful sample ballot which buries the special US Senate race between Governor Ronnie Musgrove and interim US Senator Roger Wicker.  The ballot was approved by Governor Haley Barbour.

Hosemann buried the Musgrove-Wicker race below all local races near the bottom of the ballot.

Hosemann could cite no statue supporting his decision to move the race from the top of the ballot.  However, Attorney General Jim Hood did cite election law requiring federal races be placed at the top of the ballot.

“We will win this election no matter where the Secretary of State puts it on the ballot,” Tim Phillips, Musgrove for Senate campaign manager said.  “But this is about the law and they don’t get to make up their own laws.”

The unlawful ballot is expected to cause confusion for voters expecting to find the Musgrove-Wicker race with other federal elections where it belongs.  The most prominent election in the state will be one of the hardest races to find on Election Day.  

Mississippi election law, code 23-15-367, clearly states federal races, like the Musgrove-Wicker race, belong on the top of the ballot.

PA-04: Altmire Leads by 5 in Hart’s Poll

Public Opinion Strategies for Melissa Hart (8/17-18, likely voters):

Jason Altmire (D-inc): 49

Melissa Joan Hart (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Hart held this district for three terms before the socially conservative, economically moderate Altmire took the shine out of her rising star in 2006. Despite the close margin, it’s hard for me to imagine the voters of this R+2.6 district deciding that they made a mistake in firing her, especially with Hart getting badly beaten in the money race so far.

Bonus finding: The poll shows McCain smacking Obama by a 52-39 margin in this district. Bush beat Kerry by 54-45 here in 2004.

SSP rates this race as Lean Democratic.

Step Up for Red State Democratic Candidates for Senate

One of the primary ways to Expand the Map of competitive U.S. Senate seats in 2008 is to empower with resources Democrats in states that Republicans hope to take for granted, so that they can focus on more traditionally battleground states.  Four such red states in 2008 are Mississippi, Kansas, Georgia, and Tennessee, where former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, former Congressman Jim Slattery, former state legislator Jim Martin, and former Tennessee Democratic Party Chair Bob Tuke are running to oust ethically questionable Roger Wicker, Bush-cover-up-artist Pat Roberts, Shameless Saxby Chambliss, and Lamar!, respectively.

You can blow the Senate Guru‘s mind by helping meet the below goals in the week ahead by contributing to these red state Democrats via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page:

Red state Democrat
Currently At
Goal Amount
Distance to Goal
Bob Tuke
$40
$100
$60 to go
Jim Slattery
$350
$500
$150 to go
Ronnie Musgrove
$413
$500
$87 to go
Jim Martin
$760
$1,000
$240 to go

$100 makes a huge difference.  $10 makes a huge difference.  We’re now less than two months from Election Day.  Supporting these red state Democrats at this critical juncture expands the map, makes the NRSC sweat even more, and increases Democrats’ chances for overcoming historic Republican obstructionism in the U.S. Senate.  Let’s keep that momentum going!

WV-02: Capito likes when Bush plays politics with soldiers’ lives

Over and over again we’ve seen a pattern from Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-Big Oil). When Democrats in Congress tried to take steps to do what the American people want and bring the troops home from Iraq, Capito called it “playing politics.” But when George W. Bush and his administration plays politics with the lives of troops, we hear only silence from her. So much for her “independence.” The only conclusion that can be reached: Capito likes it when Bush plays politics with the lives of soldiers.

Capito on March 23, 2007 regarding a Congressional bill in support of timelines:

“By giving our enemy a date-certain timeline for withdrawal, we are simply asking them to duck into the shadows and wait for us to leave.  Such timelines hog-tie the hands of our commanders in the field and essentially hand our enemy a roadmap to victory.

Yet the Bush administration reached a timeline agreement with the Iraqi government as reported on Aug. 22, 2008 that sets specific dates.

A deal between American and Iraqi officials was given fresh impetus by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s surprise visit to Baghdad on Thursday. Ms. Rice met with Mr. Maliki and other Iraqi leaders and confirmed that both sides saw the value in “aspirational timetables” to govern the continuing role, mission and size of American forces in Iraq.

She declined to discuss the timing, saying that to go into details of the talks “would be inappropriate at this time.” Instead, she reiterated the consistent American position that decisions must be based on events, not timetables.



Iraqi officials were more forthcoming with their interpretation of the draft agreement. In an interview by telephone in Baghdad, Mohammad Hamoud, the chief Iraqi negotiator, said that the draft contained two dates: June 30, 2009, for the withdrawal of American forces from “cities and villages” and Dec. 31, 2011, for combat troops to leave the country altogether.

But we heard nothing from Capito after Bush and the Iraqis agreed, in Capito’s own words, to giving the enemy “a roadmap to victory.”

Capito also on March 23, 2007 expressed her “belief” that decisions should be left to the commanders on the ground:

“Congress has the power of the purse, but it should not micromanage this war or any war by making decisions best left for those on the battlefield.  I want our troops to come home, but I want that decision to be made by our commanders who are basing their decisions on the conditions on the ground and in what is best for the security of our nation.”

Yet we find out today from Bob Woodward’s interviews with Bush and those very same commanders on the ground and in the Pentagon that Bush made decisions for political reasons. He took the decisions out of the hands of the commanders and made the country less safe.

At the Joint Chiefs of Staff in late November 2006, Gen. Peter Pace was facing every chairman’s nightmare: a potential revolt of the other chiefs. Two months earlier, the JCS had convened a special team of colonels to recommend options for reversing the deteriorating situation in Iraq. Now, it appeared that the chiefs’ and colonels’ advice was being marginalized, if not ignored, by the White House.

During a JCS meeting with the colonels Nov. 20, Chairman Pace dropped a bomb: The White House was considering a “surge” of additional troops to quell the violence in Iraq. “Would it be a good idea?” Pace asked the group. “If so, what would you do with five more brigades?” That amounted to 20,000 to 30,000 more troops, depending on the number of support personnel.

Pace’s question caught the chiefs and colonels off guard. The JCS hadn’t recommended a surge, and Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the Iraq commander, was opposed to one of that magnitude. Where had this come from? Was it a serious option? Was it already a done deal?

Pace said he had another White House meeting in two days. “I want to be able to give the president a recommendation on what’s doable,” he said.

A rift had been growing between the country’s military and civilian leadership, and in several JCS meetings that November, the chiefs’ frustrations burst into the open. They had all but dismissed the surge option, worried that the armed forces were already stretched to the breaking point.

Where is Capito’s criticism that she made before of politicians making decisions instead of the “commanders on the ground”?

It was so important to her that Capito made that point the basis of another statement on Nov. 14, 2007:

“This is yet another politically motivated resolution by the Majority that would undercut the decision-making power of commanders on the ground in Iraq,” said Capito.

And yet that is what top Pentagon officials told Bob Woodward Bush did. Bush was motivated by politics at home to take away their decision to withdraw troops in order to have his escalation, his “surge” that they thought stretched the military to the breaking point and left the country with out a strategic reserve in the event of another crisis elsewhere:

The president was not listening to Casey’s boss, Gen. John P. Abizaid at Central Command, anymore, either.

“Yeah, I know,” the president said to Abizaid at a National Security Council session in December, “you’re going to tell me you’re against the surge.”

Yes, Abizaid replied, and then presented his argument that U.S. forces needed to get out of Iraq in order to win.

“The U.S. presence helps to keep a lid on,” Bush responded. There were other benefits. A surge would “also help here at home, since for many the measure of success is reduction in violence,” Bush said. “And it’ll help [Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-] Maliki to get control of the situation. A heavier presence will buy time for his government.”

The rest of Iraq wasn’t as tenuous as Baghdad, Abizaid said. “But it’s the capital city that looks chaotic,” Bush said. “And when your capital city looks chaotic, it’s hard to sustain your position, whether at home or abroad.”

Clearly Bush was motivated by political reasons. Think that’s just my interpretation:

Pace, Schoomaker and Casey found themselves badly out of sync with the White House in the fall of 2006, finally losing control of the war strategy altogether after the midterm elections. Schoomaker was outraged when he saw news coverage that retired Gen. Jack Keane, the former Army vice chief of staff, had briefed the president Dec. 11 about a new Iraq strategy being proposed by the American Enterprise Institute, the conservative think tank.

“When does AEI start trumping the Joint Chiefs of Staff on this stuff?” Schoomaker asked at the next chiefs’ meeting.

Yet where is Capito’s criticism of Bush making “politically motivated” decisions that tied the hands of the commanders on the ground?

She made that criticism to justify her roadblocking of legislation to do EXACTLY what the generals were wanting to do – to pull the troops out to let the Iraqis take over. Yet we hear only silence from her now.

She’s not independent. She’s a coward who only does what Bush and the Republican leaders tell her to do. Capito knew the surge would not work. She said as much:

However, I have grave concerns regarding the call for increased American troop numbers in Iraq and am skeptical of this new plan’s success.  I believe the escalating sectarian violence in Iraq requires a political solution, not a military solution rooted in increased numbers of American troops.

Never forget this. Despite expressing those “concerns,” Capito backed it anyway. She made the politically motivated decision to back Bush’s politically motivated surge and then she accused Democrats and Republicans who opposed the surge and sought to bring the troops home of tying the hands of the commanders in the field, when that is exactly what she supported George W. Bush in doing.

How many died since she made the decision to back the president playing politics with the lives of soldiers instead of standing up and representing the American people?

Capito shouldn’t be running for reelection. She should be hanging her head in shame.

We have a chance to elect a Congressional representative who wants to end the war in Iraq quickly and responsibly.

Here’s Anne Barth’s position:

We must focus on training the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own security soon, set benchmarks for the Iraqi military, and give more emphasis to diplomatic strategies.  

The war in Iraq has had a serious impact on our military, and our brave men and women are stretched thin by extended deployments. In Congress, I will work to strengthen America’s national security and refocus on the terrorist threats around the globe that are currently ignored.

Look how closely it mirrors the exact view held by the commanders on the ground – the same ones whose views Capito said were so important and for years she ignored as Bush played politics and others paid the ultimate price.

More on Anne Barth here. More on Capito here.

Our West Virginia Blue Act Blue page for Anne Barth here.