Month: September 2008

Remember this guy? When we last checked in with Captain Charisma, a.k.a. Dr. Stephen Porter, the twice-failed Democratic congressional candidate had renounced his party and embarked on a quixotic campaign against GOP Rep. Phil English as an independent.

One petition challenge later…

An independent candidate for Congress does not have enough valid signatures on his nomination petitions to have his name on the November ballot, a state judge ruled.

Senior Commonwealth Court Judge James R. Kelley ruled Tuesday that 1,542 of the more than 3,200 signatures Steven Porter collected were invalid because Porter helped some voters fill out his nomination petitions. Porter needed 2,171 valid signatures to be on the ballot.

Porter is vowing to soldier on as a write-in candidate. Good luck with that, sir.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

(H/T: PolitickerPA.com)

I got the following e-mail this afternoon, since I signed up for e-mails from Oliver’s campaign.

Dear [my name],

With just over 60 days until the General Election on November 4th, 2008, the Oliver for US Congress Campaign is at full speed.  We have been talking to people throughout Congressional District 1 and learning about their lives, their struggles, and where they want and need to see improvements in this great state.

As I am sure many of you know, Hurricane Gustav made landfall yesterday in the Gulf Coast.  Gustav hit just after the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s destruction of New Orleans three (3) years ago.  After Hurricane Katrina hit, I traveled south with one of my employees, Ashley Theil, and one of my sisters, Julie Luna.  For several days, we assisted displaced victims at the FEMA site near the Houston Astrodome.  We were able to connect the victims with housing providers and placed over 400 families in less than 10 days.  We did this by:

   * Assessing the needs of each resident based upon their prior housing situation.  For example: if an elderly person had been living in an elderly facility, we worked to house that person in a similar elderly facility.

   * Using our national housing connections to open doors.

   * Providing maps.  The FEMA site did not have maps available for the displaced families.  These maps helped displaced families know where they were going to live, and what schools, stores, and churches were in the area.

   * Connecting church buses with elderly citizens and families who arrived at the FEMA site with nothing – some in wheelchairs and night clothes.  We worked overtime to get the displaced families to the places where people were waiting to help them.

There were a few families I cannot forget, like the teacher and entrepreneur husband with 2 children, and their teenage son who worked at McDonald’s in New Orleans.  They lost everything they had — this proud father was holding back tears when he was trying to figure out what to do for his family.  It was my honor to do my part and connect them with a temporary home until they got a place to start over, but there was no way we could do enough.

There was another woman who had 9 children.  We lost track of this woman on the first day and found out that she and her children slept on the street that night because the shelter was full.  We were finally able to get her housed, but the children will always have those memories of sleeping on the street, among other horrible memories from that disaster.

I felt the obligation to offer my expertise during one of our nation’s greatest human crises and I was honored to be able to do so.  This need and desire to help is an absolute product of my upbringing as a proud Oklahoman.  I was raised to believe that you always help others, no exceptions.  Many of my fellow Oklahomans were deeply affected by Katrina.  Many went above and beyond to help, but unfortunately, we were all sad to see that our elected officials let us down.

Rest assured that as a product of the Great State of Oklahoma, I will always make sure that we take the lead and offer charity when it is needed, but do so in a responsible and accountable manner.

Warm Regards,

Georgianna W. Oliver

To contribute to the Oliver for US Congress campaign, please click here.  Any amount is appreciated.

So yeah.  Just in case anyone was interested in this race.

Maybe I should sign up for race updates from a bunch of other under-the-radar races.  Suggestions, anyone?  (Or are people just going to point me back to my gigantic list of races…heh…)

CQ Politics breaks the news

This is absolutely wonderful and welcome news.  Wayne Gilchrest was one of the few non-insane Republicans in the House, who was taken out in a primary a few months back by one of the typically right right right wingers.  Well, it looks like he cares more about his country than about his party (as I said, he is one of the very few non-insane Republicans).

Our candidate in Maryland’s first district is Frank Kratovil Jr., and with this somewhat unexpected support from Mr. Gilchrest, one of only two Republicans in the House not to support the war, this might end up being yet another winnable race!

“For the 18 years I have been honored to represent the 1st District in Congress, I have always tried to make decisions based on principle rather than partisanship or politics,” Gilchrest said in his prepared remarks at the beginning of a conference call with reporters from the state capital of Annapolis.

He continued, “This decision is no different. I admire Frank’s integrity and independence. He will continue the moderate tradition of Maryland’s Eastern Shore.”

Excellent news all around today.

Public Policy Polling (8/25-27, likely voters, 7/2-5 in parens):

Larry Kissell (D): 39 (36)

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 44 (43)

Thomas Hill (L): 4 (7)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Hayes still maintains the edge, on account of his strength among Democrats (19% to Kissell’s 69%), Republicans (83-8) and Independents (43-27). But he’s still well under 50%, and there are ominous signs up the ballot in this R+3 district: Kay Hagan is leading Dole by 45-41 in the state’s U.S. Senate race, and Obama and McCain’t are tied at 43% each.

This one is gonna be a slugfest.

The DSCC is up with their first ads of the general election cycle (to the best of my knowledge) in Minnesota and New Hampshire.

The MN-Sen ad, “Running Man”:

And the NH-Sen ad, “Choice”:

The Minnesota piece, which mimics the style of a TV spot for an upcoming film, is pretty cleverly-made. The first of many more to come, I’m sure.

The NRSC also has their own ad up in New Hampshire. You can view it here.

The following diary discusses whom is behind the campaigns to pass and defeat every single one of Oregon’s ballot measures this fall.  It discusses who is funding them and what their political leanings are.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Data from: ORESTAR

Measure Summary:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 54 (C):

Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

Measure 56 (S):

Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.

Measure 57 (S):

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative.  Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Measure 59 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This is at least the third time that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns.  This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Measure 65 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)

Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Who’s Involved?:

Note: I am doing this down here because some groups support/oppose multiple measures and so it’s simpler to do it this way.  Also note that the person listed as “leading” each group is simply the treasurer of the committee.

Committee to Protect Local Control of Schools-No on 58-led by known Democratic Activist Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Defend Oregon-Yes on 56 and 57, No on 58-64, led by Kevin Neely:

Contributions: $500k.

Expenditures: $620k.

COH: -$120k.

Largest Contributor: Oregon State Council of Service Employees-$455k.

Don’t Pay to the Test-No on 60, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Don’t Silence our Voice-No on 64, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

No Way to Fight Crime-No on 61, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Oregon Anti-Crime Alliance PAC, No on 57, Yes on 61 and 62, led by Kevin Mannix (R):

Contributions: $76k.

Expenditures: $60k.

COH: $16k.

Largest Contributor: Loren Parks, a crazy “sex therapist” originally from Oregon, now lives in Vegas-$75k.

Oregonians Against Unfair Elections, No on 65, led by Kevin Neely:

Contributions: $2,250.

Expenditures: $1,500.

COH: $750.

Largest Contributor: Loan from PacWest Communications-$2,250.

Oregonians Against Unsafe Housing, No on 63, led by Kevin Neely:

Contributions: $150k.

Expenditures: $10k.

COH: $140k.

Largest Contributor: Barnes Labor Management Cooperative Committee-$100k.

PAC 483, No on 59 and 64, led by Donna Bandeen, a longtime D activist:

Contributions: $9k.

Expenditures: $500.

COH: $8.5k.

Largest Contributor: Portlanders for Accountability (a union-backed group formed to fight changes to Portland’s city charter last year)-$5k.

The Better Way to Fight Crime Commitee, Yes on 57, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Voting Matters, Yes on 56, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Vote Yes on 65 Make Every Voter Count, Yes on 65, led by Michael Greenfield, a management consultant, minimal COH.

Let me know what you think.  There may be other groups, the Taxpayer Association of Oregon for one has yet to officially jump in, but this is it for now.

We all know that Texas will likely go red on election night and deliver her electoral votes to John McCain. Many of us also know that Dallas County was, for many years, the heart of the Republican takeover of the Lone Star State. Things began changing two years ago when Democrats swept county office races with the help of voter dissatisfaction and a kickass GOTV operation. Now, you might think that, in a presiential year, Dallas Democrats might be on defense, but not so. According to the Dallas Morning News, no less that four Republican judges have either leaft the Republican Party, or are preparing to leave.

As Texas Republicans gather for their national convention, GOP members back in Dallas are preparing to bolt the party.

Monday, Dallas County Court at Law Judge Mark Greenberg plans to announce at a Democratic Party Labor Day picnic that he’s leaving the Republican Party, said people from both parties familiar with his decision. The judge, who next faces re-election in 2010, could not be reached.

At least two other judges are expected to leave the GOP before November.

“They are looking at the numbers and the demographics and realizing that they can’t win by running as Republicans,” said Darlene Ewing, chairwoman of the Dallas County Democratic Party.

Last week, Dallas County Republicans lost another when county Criminal Court Judge Elizabeth Crowder said she’s switching to the Democrats.

It’s the latest political shift since the 2004 elections, when Democrats started to make inroads in county offices held firmly by Republicans since the Reagan years.

Since last year, five Republicans have defected, including state District Judge John Creuzot, who presides over the county’s felony courts, and state Rep. Kirk England of Grand Prairie. Judge Creuzot and Mr. England face Republican opposition in November.

There is a debate in political circles as to whether partisan change begins at the top or the bottom. Some argue that people first start voting for a particular party at the top of the ticket and eventually work their way down. Others contend that it begins on the local level and works its way up as lower-tier recruits run for office.

In the South, people started voting Republican for president, but still elected Democrats to Congress and local office. At the same time, local politicians started chaging their affiliation from Democrat to Republican before climbing their way to the top. In Texas, it’s beginning at the local level. County Republicans in Dallas and Harris Counties are reading the hadwriting on the wall and understand that voters are losing faith in their ability to govern. As a matter of fact, Barack Obama’s ativities in Texas are not about winning the state, but helping Democrats build on the gains they made in the State House and perhaps even take it over.

It’s slow, painstaking work. Winning judgeships is not as exciting as winning a senate seat, but this is exactly how Karl Rove started the party takeover, and perhaps this is where we begin the long march back. My eyes are upon you, Texas.

A sweet score for Democrat Frank Kratovil:

Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest, ousted after nine terms in a bitter Republican primary campaign last winter, will cross party lines today to endorse Democrat Frank M. Kratovil Jr. in the 1st Congressional District.

A senior member of Gilchrest’s staff confirmed yesterday that the veteran lawmaker – who earned a reputation as a staunch environmentalist who frequently clashed with Republican Party leaders – will join Kratovil, an Eastern Shore prosecutor, at appearances today in Annapolis and Easton.

Gilchrest succeeded for nearly a decade in the far-flung district, which covers the Eastern Shore and parts of Anne Arundel, Harford and Baltimore counties, by tapping support from moderate Democrats and Republicans in general election wins.

Gilchrest was defeated in the GOP primary by state Sen. Andy Harris, and has now done what seemed inevitable and endorsed the Democrat in the race. It’s a timely boost that gives Kratovil a fighting chance this November in this R+10 district.

(H/T: conspiracy)

UPDATE: Like clockwork, Kratovil is out with this new ad starring none other than Rep. Wayne Gilchrest:

The light at the end of the tunnel is upon us: the last batch of primaries occurs during the first few weeks of September. While there’s only one last good shot at bouncing an incumbent (LA-02), there is still a wide variety of tasty races in this smorgasbord.

September 2

AZ-01: As Rick Renzi looks forward to his golden years in prison retirement, there are battles on each side of the aisle to replace him. On the Democratic side, the frontrunner is former state representative Ann Kirkpatrick. There haven’t been any polls, but Kirkpatrick has thoroughly dominated the fundraising chase. Two of her opponents can’t be ruled out, though, especially given their connections to the Native American community (Natives make up nearly one-quarter of this district which encompasses much of rural Arizona, by far the most of any congressional district): environmental attorney Howard Shanker, who has often represented the tribes in court, and former TV reporter Mary Kim Titla, who as an Apache would be the first-ever Native American woman in Congress.

On the Republican side, ultra-conservative mining industry lobbyist Sydney Hay somehow got stuck carrying the party’s flag after more prominent (and electable) recruits demurred. Hay’s fundraising has been sub-par, giving attorney/ex-State Dept. official Sandra Livingstone an opening to surprise her. The odds still favor Hay… which may favor the Dems this November, given Hay’s unlikeability, the narrow lean of the R+2 district, and the stench left behind by Renzi.

AZ-05: Freshman Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell might have been endangered in this suburban R+4 district in a less Dem-friendly year, having drawn a slew of credible challengers in the Republican primary. Former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert seems to have the best shot, based on fundraising and having the largest constitutency. However, ex-city councilor Susan Bitter Smith, ex-state senator Laura Knaperek, ex-state representative Mark Anderson, and lobbyist Jim Ogsbury are all in this thing, and without a runoff, one of the lesser candidates could easily sneak by, if they have a more cohesive bloc.

September 6 (?)

LA-02: Here’s the big opportunity for Democrats to clean house, by ridding themselves of their most corrupt member, Bill Jefferson. In a purely one-on-one race, Jefferson might be facing some long odds (although maybe not, given Louisiana residents’ tendency to be a little more forgiving of their pols’ indiscretions than in most places). Unfortunately, Jefferson faces an extremely crowded field, with the anti-Jefferson vote split among six other candidates (some of whom might actually be pro-Jefferson Trojan horses?): state representative Cedric Richmond, Jefferson Parish councilor Byron Lee, New Orleans city councilor James Carter, former New Orleans city councilor Troy Carter, Ray Nagin aide Kenya Smith, and former TV anchor Helena Moreno. Jefferson also has the edge in very cold, very hard cash on hand, although his pre-primary numbers showed slackening fundraising.

The good news is, what with a corrupt incumbent and a raft of challengers, this is almost certainly going to a runoff (which will be held October 4). I have absolutely no idea who will be opposing Jefferson in the runoff… and remember that the runoff didn’t work so well in 2006, when then-state representative Karen Carter Peterson lost to Jefferson despite the corruption allegations having surfaced (prior to his indictment, however). The runoff is the de facto general in this D+28 district.

LA-04: There’s a three-way fight among the top-tier Republicans in this battle to replace the retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery in this Shreveport-based R+7 district. The fundraising advantage seems to go to former Bossier Chamber of Commerce president Jeff Thompson and to self-funding trucking company executive Chris Gorman. However, several internal polls give a sizable edge to physician John Fleming.

The good news (for us) is that each of these guys is a relative unknown, and going up in November against Paul Carmouche, who has been the district attorney in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport) for literally decades, and who faces only token primary opposition. With the likelihood of none of the three GOPers hitting 50%, and the nastiness getting dragged out for another month till a runoff, Carmouche looks to be in the catbird’s seat.

September 9

DE-Gov: The main event in Delaware is the Democratic primary in the governor’s race, between Lt. Gov. John Carney and Treasurer Jack Markell. (Either one is expected to coast in November, against retired judge Bill Lee.) Both seem like solid Dems; Carney is more associated with labor and party insiders, and Markell is considered more of a ‘fresh’ face, despite an endorsement from the DLC last year. This becomes more interesting when considering that the winner may be the one who appoints Joe Biden’s successor (although that could also be Ruth Ann Minner’s last act), and the gubernatorial loser may be the one who gets to be the next senator.

DE-AL: On paper, this should be a competitive race; at D+6, it’s the most Democratic-leaning district still occupied by a Republican (Mike Castle). Barring something weird happening, though, Castle will continue to occupy this seat for at least the next two years. This is worth mentioning mostly because this primary gets a lot of netroots focus; veterinarian and Kossack Jerry Northington is running, as well as ’06 independent candidate Karen Hartley-Nagle and accountant Mike Miller.

MN-Sen: Al Franken pretty much locked this nomination down long ago at the DFL convention, which is ordinarily the end game in Minnesota. However, attorney Priscilla Lord Faris is hanging around the margins, raising arguments about Franken’s electibility and otherwise trying to bleed him to death with paper cuts. Don’t look for Faris to come close to winning, but Franken’s numbers in the primary might help us gauge just how vulnerable he is to the whole ‘juicy porn’ line of attack in the general.

MN-01: There’s still a duel going on in this R+1 Rochester-based district for the right to get flattened by freshman Dem Tim Walz. State senator Dick Day seemed an early favorite for the GOP nomination, but Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis has run an aggressive campaign well to the right of the affable Day, and with his sizable fundraising edge (much of which may be out of his own pocket) may shoot past Day. Either way, the nasty primary only serves to bolster Walz, who’s on the verge of securing this seat for good.

NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter was one of the biggest Democratic upsets in the 2006 cycle, and with mediocre polling numbers, a desire to hold the DCCC at arm’s length, and a potential rematch against the narrowly-defeated ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, she may be one of this cycle’s most endangered Dem incumbents. However, the good news is that Bradley has been stumbling around in his own primary, against former New Hampshire Health and Human Services Director John Stephen. Stephen has been hitting the more moderate Bradley hard from the right, and has drawn even with him in fundraising. Both lag Shea-Porter’s cash stash (for a woman who hates to raise money, she sure raises money). Even if Bradley makes it through the primary, his empty wallet and mud-spattered suit will complicate efforts to retake this D+0 seat.

NH-02: Of the two new New Hampshire representatives from 2006, conventional wisdom has always viewed Paul Hodes as the safer one. Talk radio host Jennifer Horn is the challenger who’s probably drawn the most attention from the rest of the right-wing punditsphere (gee, I wonder why?), and she leads the fundraising chase. State senator Bob Clegg and former congressional aide Grant Bosse are still in the mix. Between the seat’s D+3 lean and Hodes’ huge cash advantage, though, any of them are likely to be no more than a speed bump for Hodes (as seen by our recent upgrade of this race to Safe Dem).

NY-10: At D+41, in this mostly African-American seat in Brooklyn, the primary is the main event. Edolphus Towns, who has held this seat since 1982, survived a three-way challenge in 2006, giving him the whiff of vulnerability. (Indeed, he’s seen stiff primary fights in other years as well.) This year, he faces another spirited challenge, this time from writer and community organizer Kevin Powell (best known for playing the role of ‘angry black guy’ on the very first season of MTV’s The Real World back in 1992). Towns has survived higher-profile challenges before, but with his checkered past (voting for bankruptcy reform and CAFTA, snuggling up to black Republican J.C. Watts) and Powell’s celebrity-fueled run, this is one to watch.

NY-13: This race has been an SSP staple since May. Rather than give you a blow-by-blow recap, I’ll simply redirect anyone not familiar with this race to SSP’s Timeline of GOP Disasters, as this race seems to make up a large portion of that epic work. Starting with Vito Fossella’s retirement upon his admission of his affair and love child, the GOP has with each subsequent incident fallen deeper and deeper into a rabbit hole of embarrassing absurdity.

As it stands, there is still an ostensibly competitive primary on each side of the aisle in this D+1 seat. On the Dem side, city councilor Mike McMahon is poised to win over attorney Steve Harrison. (McMahon is considered more conservative than Harrison, and Harrison has the advantage of being the ’06 candidate, but McMahon has the gigantic advantage of being from Staten Island, unlike Brooklynite Harrison, which is key in this parochial SI-based district.) McMahon has a large cash edge and DCCC backing.

On the GOP side, after every credible candidate (and some incredible ones as well) passed on the race, we’re down to a primary between Manhattan resident Robert Straniere (always referred to as “ex-Assemblyman/hot dog restauranteur”) and Jamshad “Jim” Wyne, treasurer of the Staten Island GOP. Both Straniere and Wyne are widely detested, have no money, and to make matters worse (for them), are now bashing each other incessantly.

NY-21: This race is a little reminiscent of CO-02: a big slate of liberal Democrats vying to take over a safe Democratic (D+9) seat being vacated by long-timer Mike McNulty. There are at least four credible candidates here: ex-Assemblyman Paul Tonko, former Hillary Clinton aide Tracey Brooks, Albany County Legislator Phil Steck, and former congressional aide Darius Shahinfar. Steck received the endorsement of the Albany County Democratic Committee, but Tonko seems to have a big edge in name recognition, based on an internal poll giving him a sizable lead. Tonko has key labor endorsements such as the SEIU; Brooks has the NOW endorsement; Steck and Shahinfar are endorsers of the Responsible Plan. In other words, we have four pretty solid progressives; just pick the flavor you like.

NY-26: This R+3 open seat in the Buffalo suburbs, left vacant when Tom Reynolds decided to hit the eject button, looked to present one more easy pickup for the New York Dems. Charismatic Iraq War vet Jon Powers quickly moved to grab the endorsement of all the Democratic Party organizations in each county. However, there’s one huge obstacle between Powers and the nomination: crazy tycoon Jack Davis, who, with his single-minded focus on fair trade and illegal immigrants, was possibly the only person who could have wrested defeat from the jaws of victory against Reynolds in 2006 at the height of the Mark Foley scandal. Davis, if you’ll recall, was the vanquisher of the Millionaire’s Amendment, freeing him to spend willy-nilly to buy this race. He was last heard from worrying about how immigrants will lead to the Second Civil War.

Although Powers has been a strong fundraiser, Davis has still been outspending Powers lately, purely out of his own pocket, and pummeling Powers over the alleged inefficacy of Powers’ charitable efforts for Iraqi kids. Either outcome doesn’t look good: Davis buying the primary and being cannon fodder in the general against the well-funded and uncontroversial Republican businessman Chris Lee, or a wounded and depleted Powers staggering into the general. (There’s a third candidate, “environmental” lawyer Alice Kryzan, but it doesn’t seem she has enough of a base to sneak unnoticed past the other two.)