Month: September 2008

Crossposted from Minnesota Progress

Team Madia is up with it’s second ad. And again, I’m very impressed.

Most Democrats run ads of them talking to people while MIDDLE CLASS TAX CUTS, ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, HEALTH CARE FOR ALL, END WAR IN IRAQ flash on the bottom of the screen. Sure those are all popular poll tested themes but those kind of ads are boring and unmemorable not to mention ineffective.

Madia’s ad’s are unconventional, interesting and convey his message in a much more memorable way. I’d really like to know who made these ads. For those who missed it, here is his last ad:

If you want to help air these ads, donate here.  

The Census Bureau recently started to release 2007 American Community Survey data for the whole country broken down by congressional district. I’m going to start with total population figures, as that may be the most important figure: while it doesn’t tell us how the composition of the district has changed recently, it does give us a pretty clear picture of the trajectory different districts are on, in terms of where they’ll be come redistricting time in 2010. (I’ll get to income and poverty numbers in a different diary soon. Other information, such as race, education, and age, hasn’t been released and won’t be for a few more weeks.)

I’ll start with the districts which have experienced the greatest population gain. These are the areas that will have to shed the most population (often into newly-created districts).

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
AZ-06	Flake (R)	641,360	944,706	303,346
NV-03	Porter (R)	665,345	949,685	284,340
AZ-02	Franks (R)	641,435	923,694	282,259
GA-07	Linder (R)	630,511	874,059	243,548
TX-10	McCaul (R)	651,523	889,342	237,819
FL-05	Brown-Waite (R)	639,719	870,558	230,839
CA-45	Bono Mack (R)	638,553	850,429	211,876
TX-26	Burgess (R)	651,858	843,902	192,044
NC-09	Myrick (R)	619,705	811,360	191,655
TX-22	Lampson (D)	651,657	843,070	191,413
FL-14	Mack (R)	639,298	827,747	188,449
CA-44	Calvert (R)	639,008	821,102	182,094
GA-06	Price (R)	630,613	808,518	177,905
TX-03	S. Johnson (R)	651,782	828,598	176,816
AZ-07	Grijalva (D)	640,996	797,355	156,359
GA-03	Westmoreland (R)	630,052	777,210	147,158
UT-03	Cannon (R)	744,545	891,668	147,123
GA-09	Deal (R)	629,678	774,544	144,866
ID-01	Sali (R)	648,922	791,628	142,706
CO-06	Tancredo (R)	614,491	755,315	140,824
FL-08	Keller (R)	639,026	778,960	139,934
VA-10	Wolf (R)	643,714	780,534	136,820
WA-08	Reichert (R)	655,029	790,781	135,752
IL-14	Foster (D)	654,031	787,087	133,056
FL-25	M. Diaz-Balart (R)	638,315	770,952	132,637

Much more over the flip…

Now here are the districts that have lost the most population between 2000 and 2007, and which will need to absorb the most surrounding territory (or be eliminated and dispersed into surrounding districts).

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
LA-02	Jefferson (D)	639,048	385,399	– 253,649
PA-14	Doyle (D)	645,809	547,019	– 98,790
MI-13	Kilpatrick (D)	662,844	568,760	– 94,084
PA-02	Fattah (D)	647,350	556,246	– 91,104
OH-11	vacant	630,668	539,938	– 90,730
IL-07	D. Davis (D)	653,521	586,439	– 67,082
NY-28	Slaughter (D)	654,464	588,681	– 65,783
IL-04	Gutierrez (D)	653,654	589,874	– 63,780
MI-14	Conyers (D)	662,468	599,005	– 63,463
NY-27	Higgins (D)	654,200	598,044	– 56,156
IL-17	Hare (D)	653,531	598,742	– 54,789
CA-09	Lee (D)	639,426	584,787	– 54,639
KS-01	Moran (R)	672,051	617,449	– 54,602
AL-07	A. Davis (D)	635,631	581,269	– 54,362
MS-02	B. Thompson (D)	710,996	656,843	– 54,153
TN-09	Cohen (D)	631,740	577,995	– 53,745
PA-05	Peterson (R)	646,326	594,617	– 51,709
CA-53	S. Davis (D)	638,703	587,042	– 51,661
MN-05	Ellison (D)	614,874	565,407	– 49,467
OH-17	Ryan (D)	630,316	581,058	– 49,258
MA-08	Capuano (D)	635,185	587,438	– 47,747
OH-10	Kucinich (D)	631,003	585,892	– 45,111
MI-12	Levin (D)	662,559	617,539	– 45,020
PA-01	Brady (D)	645,422	600,957	– 44,465
MO-01	Clay (D)	621,497	577,240	– 44,257

Note the high number of Republican districts on the growth list, and the high number of Democratic districts on the shrinkage list. The first list is 25 of the districts that are some of the most archetypal exurbs, and the second list is mostly the inner cities of the Rust Belt. Now, I could go all David Brooks on you, and make the case that this spells doom for the Democrats, because Democrats are either dying out or else moving to the exurbs as complete blank slates who get turned into Republicans when they eat the magic GOP fairy dust that they sprinkle over the salad bar at Applebee’s.

However, this needs to be viewed through the lens of the bluening of the people remaining in the cities, and, maybe more importantly, the bluening of the people in the inner ring suburbs. In fact, there’s probably something of a ripple effect going on: people moving from the city to the inner ring suburbs, bringing their city values with them, and people already in the inner city suburbs looking around them, not liking what they see anymore, and moving further out to the exurbs. (Which isn’t to say the suburbs-to-exurbs migration is consciously for racist or ideological reasons; it might be expressed purely in terms of wanting a bigger house with granite countertops, or having more elbow room separating them from neighbors. For whatever reasons, though, someone predisposed to valuing that, more so than an easier commute, a walkable neighborhood, or more interaction with neighbors, may also likelier to be predisposed to being a Republican.)

In addition, immigration plays a big factor. Traditionally, cities were the beachhead for wave after wave of immigrants in American history, but now many of them are making their first stop in the suburbs or even exurbs. As I said earlier, 2007 race data isn’t available yet, but when it is, you’ll see that much of the growth in the fastest growing districts (TX-10 and GA-07 especially come to mind) is non-white. (There’s also another consideration: migration from other states, and people bringing their northern values with them to the Sun Belt.)

Note that this is different from a list of purely the most and least populous districts. Here are the ten most populous districts:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
NV-03	Porter (R)	665,345	949,685	284,340
AZ-06	Flake (R)	641,360	944,706	303,346
MT-AL	Rehberg (R)	902,195	933,264	31,069
AZ-02	Franks (R)	641,435	923,694	282,259
UT-03	Cannon (R)	744,545	891,668	147,123
TX-10	McCaul (R)	651,523	889,342	237,819
GA-07	Linder (R)	630,511	874,059	243,548
FL-05	Brown-Waite (R)	639,719	870,558	230,839
UT-02	Matheson (D)	744,287	857,741	113,454
UT-01	Bishop (R)	744,377	852,082	107,705

And the ten least populous:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
LA-02	Jefferson (D)	639,048	385,399	– 253,649
RI-01	Kennedy (D)	524,189	506,472	– 17,717
WY-AL	Cubin (R)	493,782	508,840	+ 15,058
RI-02	Langevin (D)	524,130	512,250	– 11,880
NE-03	A. Smith (R)	570,532	537,076	– 33,456
OH-11	vacant	630,668	539,938	– 90,730
PA-14	Doyle (D)	645,809	547,019	– 98,790
IA-05	King (R)	585,171	548,055	– 37,116
PA-02	Fattah (D)	647,350	556,246	– 91,104
MN-05	Ellison (D)	614,874	565,407	– 49,467

As you can see, these lists aren’t quite as interesting, because of some oddball picks where states started out the decade with either very large (Montana, Utah) or very small (Rhode Island, Iowa) districts, because their populations put them on the cusp of whether or not to get an extra seat. (Or in the case of Wyoming, because there are so few people there at all.) However, I suppose it might be interesting to start a betting pool as to when Rhode Island drops to one at-large seat (2020?).

Garin-Hart-Yang for David Boswell (8/23-25, likely voters):

David Boswell (D): 41

Brett Guthrie (R): 33

(MoE: ±4.9%)

This is a real opportunity, no doubt. An earlier poll this summer from SurveyUSA showed Boswell, a longtime state Senator, leading Guthrie by three points for this open seat. While Kentucky’s 2nd has a PVI of R+12.9, it’s an ancestrally Democratic seat and Boswell has a good deal of name recognition from his long stint in Kentucky politics, including serving a term as the state’s Agriculture Commissioner.

However, if Boswell hopes to win this one, he’s gonna need to bundle some money together, and fast. When we last checked in with the Bos at the end of June, he had only $45K in the bank (compared to Guthrie’s $661K). Former Senate candidate (and richie rich) Greg Fischer has stepped forward in recent weeks to help money find Boswell, and other Kentucky Dems were pushing this race hard in Denver. However, Boswell needs to crank it up in order to seize this opportunity.

Guess who’s running to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Rob Andrews?

U.S. Rep. Rob Andrews is calling key local Democrats today to inform them he is planning to run for his congressional seat after months of vowing he would not. The veteran Camden County Democrat is expected to receive the full support of South Jersey Democratic leader George Norcross who according to a report on PolitickerNJ.com last week had told Andrews he would respect whatever decision he reached.

Of course, Rob Andrews repeatedly denied that he’d be running again, and bristled at the suggestion that his wife’s successful primary bid was just a stalking horse for his congressional re-entry after his Senate campaign fizzled.

The press conference will be held tomorrow morning.

(H/T: Blue Jersey)

SSP’s latest batch of House race ratings changes:

AZ-01 (Open): Tossup to Lean Democratic

With the Democratic and Republican fields now set after last night’s primary, it’s now safe to acknowledge the Democratic lean of this contest — and it all comes down to candidate recruitment. The GOP’s top choices to run in the place of retiring Rep. Rick Renzi, including former state Senate President Ken Bennett and state Rep. Bill Konopnicki, all bailed on this race. Instead, the GOP has nominated Arizona Mining Association President Sydney Hay.

Having only raised $342K as of August 13th (compared to Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick’s $1.14 million), Hay is hardly a prolific fundraiser. Moreover, personal statements on the campaign trail and on her website reveal her to be part of the Bill Sali wing of the GOP party. Case in point: She has showered Alan Keyes with glowing praise. And despite being the front-runner for many months, Hay barely won her primary against physician Sandra Livingstone by a 40-36 margin. That’s a serious warning sign for the GOP.

Democrats, on the other hand, have nominated state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, a former prosecutor who has touted her law-and-order credentials in campaign advertising. Another tea leaf shows promise: Despite both primaries being contested, Democrats had a turn-out advantage of 51,248 to 41,646.

IN-02 (Donnelly): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

Two words sum up the campaign of mosquito-plagued Republican Luke Puckett: shit show.

I’d love to talk to you about fundraising and the like, but Puckett’s campaign has been plagued by something more than just mosquitoes lately: managerial incompetence. After filing reports with the FEC that indicated that Puckett had -$72K cash-on-hand (yes, negative seventy-two grand), the Puck fired his campaign treasurer (as humorously noted in a document filed with the FEC) and has been trying to sort the mess out ever since. Of course, he has another hole to urgently fill, as his campaign manager abruptly quit earlier this week.

With a PVI of R+4.1, Indiana’s 2nd CD was drawn to help elect a Democrat, and we have to believe that the top-of-the ticket dynamics are stronger than ever for Democrats here. Despite facing a tough road statewide in her gubernatorial race, Jill Long Thompson has unique strength in Northern Indiana and has been polling well in the region so far. Additionally, Barack Obama has been targeting the state as a bona fide swing state, and will likely post a stronger than usual performance in the state this November. Between the Democratic coordinated campaign and Puckett’s dismal operation, it’s hard to see how the GOP is in any condition to stage an upset here — even remotely.

NY-25 (Open): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

The benefit of the doubt is quickly slipping away from Onondaga County legislator Dale Sweetland, who is running to replacing retiring GOP Rep. Jim Walsh in this D+3.4 district. Sweetland has raised a paltry $193,000 for his campaign so far, and has $104K on-hand — a drop in the bucket compared to Democrat Dan Maffei’s $1.44 million raised and $578K on-hand. Given Maffei’s strong performance in 2006, and his heavy spending so far this summer on district-wide television advertising, Democrats are strongly favored to pick up this open seat. The GOP isn’t poised to put up much of a fight for this one.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps (8/20-26, likely voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 50

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±3.4%)

Damn, son. Those are some great numbers for Kay Hagan, and this is the second poll in a row to show her with a lead over Liddy Dole. In fact, the Pollster.com graph is looking downright exciting as of late.

Now, Hagan and the DSCC have landed several weeks worth of unanswered hits on Dole, and the NRSC has only started to fire back this week. The Democratic attacks on Dole (e.g. on her effectiveness, her weak relationship with her state, and her lockstep record with George Bush) have been hitting at all the right targets. I really like this trend, and am hoping that the post-Labor Day polls confirm what we’re seeing here.

Bonus findings: The same poll also finds McCain leading Obama by 47-44, and McCrory and Perdue tied at 46-46 in the gubernatorial race.

Have you seen this: http://a5.vox.com/6a00d4142880… ?

Well, I discovered that in a Facebook group about nerd jokes a while back, and apparently, it’s pretty well known around the internet.

But doesn’t that remind you of something?  Don’t elephants tend to get in the way…politically?

Well, here’s an excellent opportunity to highlight that!  What if someone stuck someone’s face–how about that of lead obstructionist Mitch McConnell–onto the elephant?  Well, he’s already an elephant, and he’s in the way, so why not?

Unfortunately, I don’t have Photoshop, and I’m no good with MS Paint either.

So, would someone like to do this?  Go upload it somewhere and post about it in a diary of your own.  Then we can start spreading this around the blogs, and have fun with it!

(I’ll also post about any more stupid political joke ideas I come up with. 😉 )

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/26-28, likely voters):

Martin Heinrich (D): 51

Darren White (R): 46

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Nice. Those are some very swanky numbers for Heinrich. However, these ones are even swankier for Team Blue:

Barack Obama (D): 55

John McCain (R): 41

If Obama is doing that well in the 1st District (which Kerry won by only three points in 2004), that bodes very well for Obama’s statewide efforts here. It’s also an ominous sign for Sheriff Disco White — he’ll have to swim strongly upstream in order to win here if these numbers are accurate.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here. Comparing this poll to SUSA’s last poll in NM-01 (from November 2006), the D-R breakdown is basically unchanged, but this most recent poll is significantly older (46% under 50 vs. 59% under 50 in 2006) and less Hispanic (24% vs. 37%). So on its face, it doesn’t seem like the sample was juked in Heinrich’s favor — if anything, the opposite.

In 2006, we went a long way towards defeating corruption in the Congress. The former Republican Congress, led by such men as Tom Delay was shown the door by American voters. Despite this, we still have a long way to go towards defeating Corruption in the Congress. As long as men like Exxon Ed Whitfield are allowed to haunt the hallowed halls of Congress, we have work to do.

We have already seen how Exxon Eddie and his staff believe in theft and vandalism. We have seen how Exxon Eddie attacks opponents for supporting battered women and children. However, Exxon Eddie’s Corruption runs even deeper than that.

We can all see how Exxon Eddie owns much Exxon and Chevron stock. That in itself is not corrupt, but when you own stock and vote in the interests of that stock over the interests of your constituents, that is corrupt.

Although Kentucky has a multitude of farmland and could profit handsomely from investment in renewables, Exxon Eddie votes his stock options and against any kind of investment in Kentucky farmland by researching the fuels of the future. It seems his own profits are much more important to him than the betterment of our district. I am not against any American being successful, and making a profit, but to do so at the expense of those you have spent thousands of dollars of special interest money from Big Oil to attack opponents is corrupt.

Even more disturbing for 47 million Americans are the campaign contributions from Drug, Health, and Insurance industries. This insures that Exxon Ed Whitfield with do anything in his power to insure that the power to decide who gets healthcare in country will fall to the Drug, Health, and Insurance industries. Even healthcare for children is off the table for Exxon Eddie.

Now, call me what you will, but I think it is corrupt to take money from such organizations, and then deny healthcare coverage to millions of American CHILDREN!! From a party that will run on character, and “Christian Values”, I simply ask. What did Jesus say to us about the treatment of Children? Do you really believe it is Christian to deny healthcare to any child?

While we are talking character, I simply ask what kind of person, or campaign attacks and mocks a candidate for doing a fundraiser for a center that cares for battered women and children. I submit that Ed Whitfield should be there too, asking what he can do for some of the people that need it the most in this district. Not mocking those who do.

I will tell you all that this election DOES come down to character. On one side we have the character of a wife, mother, veteran, and fellow citizen of the First Congressional District of Kentucky, who lives and works among us and knows the battles we face because she faces them too. On the other side, we have a career politician, a Washington insider that has been corrupted by the lust for money and power that comes from being in that town too long. His campaign will say and do anything as evidenced by their very actions in this election. While we will fight them in the arena of ideas and character in any forum, we would rather lose than display the childish, unprofessional conduct that has marked their campaign.

We can win with the resources to run just some T.V. and radio. We have Whitfield running scared, and I honestly beieve by their recent actions they have some internal polling that isn’t too hot. Make a real diffence and a real statement this year. Support new Leadership!!:

If we get T.V., we win!!

Polls will close in Arizona in about 15 minutes. We’ll be using this thread to follow the returns for the GOP primaries in AZ-01 and AZ-05, and we’ll also be keeping an eye on the Dem vote in AZ-01.

RESULTS: Associated Press | AZ SoS

1:04AM: 88% in, and Hay’s lead is back up to 3.8%. Looking at the precinct-by-precinct returns, I can’t see a path for victory for Livingstone. Hay it is!

12:57AM: The AP calls it for Kirkpatrick. In AZ-05, Club For Growth blockhead Dave Schweikert leads Susan Bitter Smith by 30-28 with 94% in.

12:40AM: 86% in, and Hay still claims a 3.6% lead. There are what look to be a few marginally Livingstone-friendly precincts outstanding, but I think it’s going to be pretty tough for her to rise above.

12:24AM: Hay’s lead is at 3.6% with 79% in. We want this to hold, because Hay is a supremely unqualified far-right nutter who would be a big fat target for the DCCC and Ann Kirkpatrick to pummel into submission this fall. Go Hay!

12:15AM: 77% reporting in AZ-05, and Schweikert leads Bitter Smith by 30-28. Over in AZ-01, Hay continues to lead Livingstone by 3.9% with over 75% counted. On the Dem side, it seems pretty clear that Ann Kirkpatrick has won the nod.

12:04AM: Hay’s lead continues to hold steady at 4% with 73% in. Come on, baby, hold together.

11:55PM: While Hay now leads by 4.0% with 69% in, it’s worth noting that Dem primary votes (so far) are outpacing the GOP by about 2600.

11:45PM: 58% reporting in AZ-05, and Schweikert leads Bitter Smith by 31-28. And with two thirds of the vote counted in AZ-01, Hay is clinging to her 3.9% lead.

11:37PM: 64% in, and Hay leads by 3.9%. On the flipside, Kirkpatrick has a 21-point lead over Titla.

11:31PM: I guess it’s the mandated time for a ganja break in Arizona.

11:22PM: Over in AZ-05, Club For Growth nutcase Dave Schweikert is leading Susan Bitter Smith by tight 32-28 margin with 36% in.

11:21PM: Now it’s 39-35 for Hay with 57% reporting.

11:20PM: Taking a look at the AZ SoS, Hay leads Livingston by 40-36 with 48.5% of precincts reporting.

11:15PM: The trickle begins. With 13% reporting in AZ-01, Ann Kirkpatrick has a 35-point lead on Howard Shanker; on the GOP side of the aisle, Sydney Hay leads Sandra Livingstone by only a 40-33 margin. Nothing from AZ-05 yet.

10:33PM ET: We most likely won’t see any returns until another 30 minutes or so. Hang tight.