Now, some more numbers to chew on. Let’s compare the voter registration numbers from Nevada in November 2006 and August 2008. In the chart below, let’s tally the Democratic and Republican registration advantages in all three of Nevada’s congressional districts from both time periods, with blue indicating a Democratic registration advantage and red indicating a GOP advantage. Here’s what we get:
District
Nov. 2006
Aug. 2008
Change
NV-01
40,671
65,679
25,008
NV-02
47,718
29,405
18,313
NV-03
2,882
25,445
22,563
Total
4,165
61,719
65,884
Statewide, Democrats have turned a voter registration deficit of 4,000 into an advantage of 62,000 in less than two years. The biggest shift is in Clark County, where Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley’s 1st District is getting even bluer, and where the ground is shifting rapidly under GOP Rep. Jon Porter’s feet in the 3rd District. Porter is going to have his work cut out for him against Democrat Dina Titus this fall.
It’s also not hard to see why Jill Derby was tempted to make another run in the 2nd District: the reduction of the GOP’s voter registration advantage is bigger than her losing margin in 2006. However, with the increased turnout of a presidential year, she’s going to have a heck of a challenge persuading the big chunk of independent voters that she’ll need to close the gap.
Overall, these are very encouraging signs for Democrats up and down the ballot this fall.
Iraq War Vet and Second District Democratic Nominee Steve Sarvi is up with the first ad of the MN-02 race. It’s a solid ad, I’m not quite as impressed with it as I am with Ashwin Madia’s ads but it’s a good ad that defines Sarvi in the terms that Sarvi wants before Kline has a chance to define him. He also defines Kline before Kline can which is important since despite being the incumbent, Kline is not well known.
It’s essentially the same strategy that Tim Walz used in 2006. If you want to him run this ad you can donate here.
Ivan Moore Research polls the Alaska races (8/30-9/2, likely voters, 8/9-12 in parens):
Mark Begich (D): 49 (56)
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (39)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
I believe we could call this the “Tom Reynolds effect” of political scandals: Stevens’ numbers took a nosedive immediately after his indictment, but now that the shock is wearing off (and after his primary win), the numbers have readjusted back to a tight race. The good news is, Mark Begich is running a brilliant campaign, and is doing everything right. Let’s just hope that Stevens isn’t acquitted before election day.
And now for the House race:
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 54 (51)
Don Young (R-inc): 37 (41)
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 38 (42)
Sean Parnell (R): 49 (46)
The numbers tell you everything you need to know about this race: we better hope that Young survives his primary. The crumb-bum currently leads by 151 votes, but guess what? There are over 25,000 uncounted absentee and provisional ballots still outstanding. This primary isn’t nearly over by any stretch of the imagination — and the electoral fate of Ethan Berkowitz could rest in the balance.
Bonus finding: With Palin on the ticket, Alaska is no longer in play, according to the poll. McCain crushes Obama by a 54-35 margin, up from 47-44 in July.
Howey-Gauge (8/30-31, likely voters, 4/23-24 in parens):
Jill Long Thompson (D): 35 (36)
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 53 (55)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
This is the fourth consecutive poll since June showing Daniels with a big lead. A couple of years ago, My Man Mitch seemed like a juicy target to be taken down by an aggressive populist Democratic campaign. However, Daniels has turned around his once-sagging job approval ratings and has put some serious daylight between himself and JLT.
While we don’t base our ratings system entirely on polls, you can’t outrun the trend lines. SSP is shifting its rating of this race from “Lean Republican” to Likely Republican.
On the bright side, this latest Howey-Gauge poll shows McCain leading Obama only by a 45-43 margin. Can McCain afford to continue to write this state off as a guaranteed GOP win?
Earlier in the week, we wrote about a recent SurveyUSA poll of Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District that showed Republican Jay Love leading Democrat Bobby Bright by an unexpectedly wide margin: 56%-39%.
We wrote at the time that the poll, commissioned by Roll Call, didn’t really pass the sniff test. Despite the 2nd District having an African-American population that makes up between 29 and 30% of the district, SurveyUSA pegged the black vote at only 16% of their voter screen. Other pollsters, including the reputable Democratic firm Anzalone-Liszt, peg the African-American vote at 10 points higher — and consider that a conservative estimate given the historic nature of this year.
The poll, according to SurveyUSA CEO Jay Leve, calculated black turnout at 16 percent. According to exit polling from the 2004 general election, black turnout in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District was 24 percent. Leve said black turnout was calculated at 16 percent because “that’s what we got when we conducted the survey.”
After the poll results were released by Roll Call on Tuesday, Roll Call asked SurveyUSA pollster Jay Leve to “re-weight” the results based on greater black turnout.
According to Leve, Love’s lead shrinks to 50-44 if black turnout equals 2004 levels. It shrinks even more to 49-46 – within the 4 percent margin of error – if black turnout increases to 27 percent.
“I do not consider the Democrat concerns anything other than fairly voiced,” Leve said. “It’s important to understand that there is no way to know which number is closest to the truth, because the truth is hard to know. It is safe to say that depending on what the black turnout is, the Republican will either win by quite a bit, or the race may be very close.”
“Democrat concerns”. Heh, nice one.
As I said on Tuesday, it’s very telling that even Jay Love’s internal polling has shown this race to be neck-and-neck. Alabama pollsters with a long track record in statewide politics like Anzalone and the Capital Survey Research Center have both shown Bright leading by ten. Perhaps the race isn’t quite as favorable for Bright as it was in early August (though there’s no real reason for it not to be), but it’s pretty clear that SurveyUSA popped out a dud — plain and simple.
Louisiana will not hold its scheduled primaries Saturday because of the devastation and voter displacement caused by Hurricane Gustav earlier this week.
State election officials could decide as early as today when to reschedule the elections, and as of Wednesday there still was some hope of being able to hold the primaries on Sept. 13. Doing so would allow any required runoffs to take place on Oct. 4, the state’s currently scheduled runoff date.
Another possibility could be to hold all primaries on Oct. 4. That would push any required runoffs back to November and mean that some districts may not have a general election until December.
If Louisiana’s congressional elections are pushed back to December, that could be bad news for Democrats in LA-04, LA-06, and LA-07 — as a high African-American turnout inspired by Barack Obama is considered a key element of Dem chances here.
On the other hand, if Obama does win in November, the GOP’s hard-right base could be in such a state of depression and malaise that they might not be feeling pumped up about showing up for a December general election. (Shades of TX-23, anyone?)
The following is the first of two parts reviewing the fun, the interesting and the just plain odd in Oregon’s Voters’ Pamphlet this year. Think of this as a bit of humor to brighten your days.
Please note that this is the “Military/Overseas” edition and as such is a bit rough (it is basically scanned in PDFs).
For each candidate I will present their main message (for Rs and any fun third party folks), and my thoughts on what they are really saying. Candidates are Rs unless otherwise indicated.
President:
McCain
What he says: Washington in broken.
What he means: I broke Washington and you fools expect me to fix it.
Nader (Peace Party)
What he says: Only I can fight for these issues that you care about.
What he means: I can do this because I apparently don’t read any newspapers and have a huge ego.
US Senate:
Smith
What he says: I am a centrist who supports both the Republican and Democrat (he spells it that way) parties.
What he means: HA HA, you fools, I love playing moderate for two years so I can be a typical Repub for four.
US Congress
2nd District
Walden
What he says: Being environmentally responsible is good for all of us.
What he means: Drilling and clear-cutting are good for all of us.
3rd District
Lopez
What she says: Local government is best.
What she means: But I want to be part of the federal government because they have all the $.
5th District
Erickson
What he says: I ran a business so I can run a government.
What he means: I hope to God people don’t remember how much of a hypocrite I am, I mean that trip to Cuba was a bit shady…
Secretary of State
Dancer
What he says: I want a nonpartisan Secretary of State.
What he means: Because that’s the only way a Republican will ever win this office.
State Treasurer:
Alley
What he says: I have run a business so I can run the state.
What he means: I hope to God people don’t know I ran my business (Pixelworks) into the ground (The price of the stock has dropped from $9/share two years ago to $1.60 now and was worth $60/share in 2004).
State Legislature:
I only profile selected races here due to space (e.g. those that are most humorous.
State Senate:
2nd District
Atkinson
What he says: I am a smart, independent and principled leader.
What he means: Yet I managed to shoot myself in the knee while fixing a friend’s bike.
14th District (My District)
Michaels
What she says; Vote by mail is rife with voter fraud (it’s not actually).
What she means: I don’t like vote by mail because it means Republicans lose.
State House:
9th District
Pearn
What he says: Government regulation has cost Oregon jobs.
What he means: I hate government, I want to drown it in a bath tub.
Note: This guy is f-ing crazy. Among other things, he lists that he has a social security card and is married. He also lists “The Bible” as part of his education, as well as “Pesticide application recertification training”.
36th District
Oppenheimer
What he says: My ideas should become law.
What he means: I know I have no chance to win, so why don’t I just propose the craziest things possible?
52nd District
Lindland
What he says: I’m not a normal politician.
What he means: If people f-k with me, I’ll use all my UFC skills against them, like in this video (except I won’t lose this time):
As I’ve said quite a few times on this site, I absolutely love the city of Detroit (and stop laughing if you’ve never been there — it’s a wonderful place that has shouldered the downsides of de-industrialization more than anywhere else in the country). When he was elected, I had high hopes for Kwame Kilpatrick. I think he did some good things, brought a fresh approach to politics, and truly cared about the city. And he broke the law. And assaulted people. And should go to jail. And Detroit needs and deserves a better advocate. Talk about what might be the most difficult job in America.
As many of you may know, grassroots Democrats are fighting hard to retake our district in Kentucky’s First Congressional District. It was taken with Exxon Ed Whitfield’s “Contract with America” which devolved into a “Culture of Corruption” after generations of Democrat control, and will be taken back for our party again one day soon. No matter what the outcome of any election, our solemn oath is that we will all continue the fight for what we believe in.
That is why here at Ryan for Kentucky, we want to just say thanks to Russ Feingold. His record of accomplishment in the representation of every Progressive in America has been impeccable.
Russ Feingold has long led the defense of our civil liberties due to the “War on Terror”, starting with thePatriot Act and going all the way to FISA Capitulation. He even tried to explain it so everyone could easily understand:
His Progressive Patriots Fund helps many grassroots Democrats all across the nation. We were honored to be selected by his organization in one such election in the first place, but were lucky enough to actually win. What makes it even sweeter is that Russ Feingold represents the kind of leadership we wish to offer.
So to Russ Feingold we say thanks to not only a distinguished career of fighting for many of us out of state, and for being a true leader within our party helping Democrats who are fighting a tough race and truly needed his help. Once again, he delivered for us!!
Please help the “Progressive Patriots” of Western Kentucky build on it!!:
Not exactly thrilling numbers, especially compared to the recent Momentum Analysis internal poll which showed Baker leading by two points in this R+6.5 open seat race. One tidbit leaves me a bit skeptical: McGramps is leading Obama by a 61-36 margin in this district. While I certainly don’t think that Obama will be neck-and-neck with McCain in this district, I would have expected him to be at least running even with John “The Haunted Tree” Kerry’s 2004 performance (he lost this district by 59-41).
I’ll have to wait until SUSA releases the full crosstabs in the morning for further comment, though.
