Month: September 2008

Just down the road from Paducah, Kentucky sits St. John’s Catholic Church. Every year, they have an annual picnic with games and political speaking. While not as famous, and a lot tamer than the Fancy Farm Picnic, it is a really good idea for candidates to stop in and work for votes in Western Kentucky.

As with a lot of events in Kentucky Politics today, Heather Ryan stole the show. Unfortunately, at the last minute our camera had some technical difficulties, but I want to share a transcript of Heather’s speech, that once again fired up Democrats in attendence, and offended Republicans deeply with the hard truth of their records:

Well, we were going to bring our tractor-trailer to St. John’s Picnic like Exxon Eddie, but we simply couldn’t afford it.

After the Republican National Convention ended this week, analysts said the Republicans didn’t mention their achievements because they didn’t have any. Unfortunately, I disagree.

Republicans achieved everything they set out to achieve. They’ve made the rich richer, and the middle-class poor. You may think it is unfair for me to say, but when my opponent votes against Healthcare for poor children, he is representing Insurance companies, not you.

When Exxon Eddie votes against funding Alternative Energy, he is representing Big Oil, and his own stock options, not you. When he votes to give himself and the richest 1% of Americans a huge tax break while cutting veteran’s benefits he is representing his own wallet, not yours.

(Republican heckles from side) That is unless you are sitting over there with that bunch, who obviously aren’t hurting.

Because that is what we have had in office for 14 yrs, a cookie-cutter Republican who votes over 90% of the time with President Bush. If you are proud of what George W. Bush has done to our country, then by all means vote for Exxon Ed Whitfield.

But if you are embarrassed that we are the only industrialized nation in the world that doesn’t provide healthcare for it’s citizens, and if you are angry that Big Oil holds our economy hostage, and if your furious that the richest among us own the politicians that are supposed to represent us, then vote for me, Heather Ryan and support the Democratic ticket.

I am Heather Ryan and I am just an ordinary person during an extra-ordinary time. I am a wife, and mother, previous labor union member, and a veteran, which means that even I have more experience than Sarah Palin.

You have heard a lot of talk about change in this election. Its something we desperately need in Kentucky’s First Congressional District, and in fact in America. Friends, if you always do what you did, then you will always get what you have gotten. So please, vote Democrat on Nov. 4th. Change isn’t a campaign slogan, it is a neccesity.

Thank you.

Now for some pics of St. John’s!! Here is Heather, and her daughter Heaven, everyone’s favorite Mitch McConnell antagonist arriving at the picnic. (McConnell was a no-show):

Here is Bruce Lunsford, McConnell’s opponent who did show to meet with the voters of Western Kentucky:

Here is our opponent, Exxon Eddie, looking worried as he arrived in an empty tractor-trailer with his face and name on the side, burning $4.10 a gallon diesel while Paducah Trucking Companies are closing their doors. Of course, with his Exxon and Chevron Stock he will get it back. The taxpayers of Western Kentucky won’t:

Here is Exxon Eddie on the stage, trying to explain away $4.00 a gallon gas, and voting against Healthcare for Children:

Here is the reaction of Democrats as Exxon Eddie states how he has worked for Energy Independence. From left to right, Former Congressman and State Senate candidate Carroll Hubbard, Bruce Lunsford, Heather Ryan, and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo:

Here is Heather, doing what she does like no other, calling the Republicans out on their sorry records of representing us:

Here is Carroll Hubbard, showing he still has what it takes to deliver a knockout speech:

Here is the leader of the Kentucky Democratic Party, Jennifer Moore, who is doing an awesome job and as Carroll Hubbard reminded us at Breakfast is the prettiest leader of the KDP ever:

It was a long, and great day for Democrats. Heather fired everyone up as usual, and better yet got under some Republican skin. As is the case every time people hear Heather for the first time, we signed up many new volunteers and recieved several contributions.

Please, help us in this race. This seat is ripe for the picking if we get the funds, and Heather would be an awesome Democrat with a spine in the Congress. Just ask Russ Feingold!! We are fighting hard here, and Exxon Eddie knows he is vulnerable. Go here to expand our Congressional majority!!:

We need your support!!

 

This is a pretty big deal. Billionaire industrialist (and all-around racist nutjob) Jack Davis is hell-bent on using his considerable personal resources in order to buy the seat of retiring GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds. Since Davis is currently embroiled in a contentious primary with Iraq vet Jon Powers, he has gone to great lengths in order to guarantee a spot on the November ballot no matter the outcome of the Democratic primary next Tuesday. Davis formed a new party (the “Save Jobs and Farms Party”) for exactly this purpose.

After paying field workers to gather 7,000 signatures from around the district, the move looked to be a slam dunk. The only problem? Davis forgot to officially accept the nomination:

The state Board of Elections on Friday threw Davis’ new party off the November ballot because he failed to file a document accepting the party’s nomination for Congress in the 26th District, commission spokesman Robert A. Brehm said.

“The state board commissioners voted today to determine that the . . . petitions of Mr. Davis are invalid,” Brehm said. “The reason was the failure to timely file an acceptance by the candidate, which is required by state Election Law.”

Davis has until Wednesday to appeal the decision, but the commissioners agree that it was a slam-dunk move that stands no chance of being reversed. If Jon Powers can win Tuesday’s primary — and folks close to the action in the district tell me that the primary is a true tossup — getting Davis weeded from the November ballot is crucial to Democratic chances here.

(H/T: The Albany Project)

As another month begins, it’s time for us to pause and take note of the constantly shifting picture of 2008’s Senate races. You know what to do: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.

Yesterday, we looked at the dramatic voter registration shift in Nevada, where Democrats have added far more voters to the rolls than Republicans in all three of the state’s congressional districts over the past two years. It occurred to me that we might want to expand this analysis to as many “swing states” as we could.

SEK over at The Edge of the American West has done yeoman’s work on this score, keeping tabs on the Democratic gains since the beginning of the year in all states with available data on party registration. Let’s take that approach a step further and compare the voter registration changes between today and 2006.

Nearly five years ago, DavidNYC defined a swing state as any state where the vote margin between both sides was ±10%. Let’s take David’s 2004 list of swing states (and add North Carolina and Arizona, for good measure) and see just how much movement there has been in voter registration in these states since November 2006. Unfortunately, not all of these states have voter registration, or publicly available data covering the last two years, so our list is much shorter than I’d like. But you blog with the stats you have, not the stats you want.

Just as we did yesterday, let’s present the data in terms of the margin of each party’s voter registration advantage in their respective states, with blue indicating a Democratic registration advantage and red indicating a GOP advantage.

No doubt a super-charged presidential primary was a big factor in the hard blue turn in many of these states, but that contest only fanned the flames of an already present (and continuing) trend. These are definitely some numbers worth chewing on — and definitely ones causing heartburn for GOP strategists.

I’ve included links to my sources below the fold.

Update: I’ve revised the chart above to include inactive voters in the tallies for Arizona and Nevada, as well as update the Iowa numbers with the new September stats (Dems posted another net gain of 2,500 voters here).

AZ: 2006 | 2008

CA: 2006 | 2008

CO: 2006 | 2008

DE: 2006 | 2008

FL: 2006 | 2008

IA: 2006 | 2008

NV: 2006 | 2008

NJ: 2006 | 2008

NC: 2006 | 2008

OR: 2006 | 2008

PA: 2006 | 2008

The Alaska Division of Elections has just updated the primary results for the state’s at-large House race:

Don Young: 48,006 (45.45%)

Sean Parnell: 47,767 (45.22%)

Gabrielle LeDoux: 9,856 (9.33%)

That looks to be just about it, although the state is still accepting oversees absentee ballots until Wednesday, when the count will be made final.

All told, Young has made a net gain of 21 votes since election night. However, given that either Parnell or ten petitioning voters can request a state-paid recount if the margin is tighter than 0.5% (as is the case here), a recount seems likely.

So far, so good for Ethan Berkowitz.

Update: The Anchorage Daily News writes that “an uncertain number of absentees and questioned ballots remain to be counted”.

Later Update: With another cluster of votes counted, Young’s lead has expanded from 172 to 239 votes.

Buried deep in the crosstabs of last week’s PPP poll of the Hagan-Dole seate race, there is this little gem:

One thing the Democracy Corps poll asked was who people would support for Congress in each district of the state. The sample sizes on these are pretty small (51-86 respondents per CD) so should be taken with a bit of a grain of salt but they still tell an interesting story:

– Folks who have leads over 15 points include G.K. Butterfield, Bob Etheridge, Walter Jones, David Price, Howard Coble, Mike McIntyre, Sue Myrick, and Heath Shuler. Shuler has a remarkable 66-27 advantage. It’s amazing how quickly a district can become ‘safe,’ but that’s sort of the choice the Republicans made by nominating Carl Mumpower. Unless I’m missing something it doesn’t look like the 12th and 13th district crosstabs are on the report but I am pretty comfortable saying that Mel Watt and Brad Miller will be reelected this fall.

–The closest Congressional district in the state is the 5th, where Virginia Foxx leads Roy Carter 48-46. I really hope the DCCC and other folks take the pick up opportunity in this district seriously. There are races on the Red to Blue list that based on the data I’ve seen are less winnable than this one. Carter is a uniquely appealing candidate and has the opportunity to pull off the same kind of shocker Larry Kissell almost did in 2006 if he gets the resources he needs to run the strongest campaign possible.

– In the 8th District they show Robin Hayes up 50-42 on Larry Kissell- I think it’s a little closer than that right now but that’s simply a sample size issue. Same thing in the 10th District where Daniel Johnson trails Patrick McHenry 54-39 based on 65 interviews.

Admittedly, the sample sizes are small since these are just subsets of the statewide polls. But if NC-5 is 48-46, what a golden opportunity we have there.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

Great news.  After the Alaska Division of Elections counted the remaining 25,000 absentee and questioned votes, Don Young’s lead is at 129 votes, down from 151.  

With the lead shrinking a bit, it looks like we’re headed to recount territory, but Young is holding on.  This is solid news for Ethan Berkowitz, as Palin and Young’s bitter relationship likely won’t bring the longtime incumbent many coattails.  

http://www.ktuu.com/Global/sto…

Young’s lead over Parnell down to 129 votes

Posted: Sep 5, 2008 09:22 PM EDT

by Jason Lamb

Friday, Sept. 5, 2008

ANCHORAGE, Alaska — After counting absentee and questioned ballots Friday the Alaska Division of Elections released new numbers in the airtight Republican primary race between incumbent Congressman Don young and Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell for Alaska’s U.S. House seat.

Young now leads Parnell by a mere 129 votes.

There were 85,000 votes cast in the race leading up to today’s adjusted tallies.

Elections workers began counting the questioned and absentee ballots Friday morning at the Anchorage office of the Division of Elections.

The most recently counted ballots were checked to ensure they were postmarked correctly. Absentee ballots had to be postmarked by the Aug. 26 primary election day.

Elections officials also made sure that ballots were cast by registered Alaska voters.    

Parnell released a statement earlier Friday, saying, “We understand that over 25,000 ballots were to be counted today. Given that the current difference in votes is so small, anything can happen and we remain cautiously optimistic about the results.”

Despite Friday’s updated results, though, the race is still not over.

Elections officials still must count a few areas that ran out of ballots on primary election day, totaling about 250 votes.    

Absentee ballots cast overseas will not be counted until next week.

The results for Alaska’s at-large primary are due tonight, and will be announced sometime after 5pm Alaska Time. Stay tuned! (Hat-tip: WestCoastMC)

UPDATE (David): Young’s lead has now shrunk to 129 votes. “Absentee and questioned ballots from about a dozen House districts remain to be counted tonight, according to division director Gail Fenumiai.”

Unreal:

Georgia Republican Rep. Lynn Westmoreland is standing by his statement that Barack Obama is “uppity,” claiming that he has never heard of the term being used in a “racially derogatory sense.”

“It is important to note that the dictionary definition of ‘uppity’ is ‘affecting an air of inflated self-esteem – snobbish,'” Westmoreland said in a statement. “That’s what we meant by uppity when we used it in the mill village where I grew up.”

“I’ve never heard that term used in a racially derogatory sense,” the Georgia Republican added.

The only way you could fail to instantly recognize “uppity” as racist is if racism is all you’ve ever known.

The latest Bayou Buzz:

According to the Secretary of State’s office, the Governor plans to set the election dates, at their request, for the Democratic and Republican Primaries, as well as the general, as follows: the 1st District race (Oct. 4th primary; November 4th general), the 2nd District race (Oct. 4th primary; Nov. 4th runoff; Dec. 6th or Nov. 4th general), the 4th District race (Oct. 4th primary; Dec. 6th or Nov. 4th general), and the 5th District race (Oct. 4th primary; Nov. 4th general).

So, in most cases, Louisiana’s congressional races will be decided on November 4th, with two big exceptions: LA-02 and LA-04, where it’s looking very likely that runoffs will need to be held on November 4th. The Buzz offers its take on that timeline’s impact on the Democratic primary to topple crumb-bum Rep. Bill Jefferson.

As for the 4th District race, where Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche is offering Democrats a strong shot at picking up the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery, this move could end up working in Carmouche’s favor. Democrats have had a pretty good record of success in recent Louisiana runoffs (e.g. Mary Landrieu in 2002, Kathleen Blanco in 2003, and Charlie Melancon in 2004), and if Dems are successful at the presidential and congressional levels in November, the GOP base could end up being rather deflated a month later. Furthermore, you could expect the DCCC to bring its full resources to bear here, while it’s a good bet that the Republican candidate will be tapped out after a hard-fought three-way primary and runoff.