Most political analysts agree on the following points:
– Democrats will retain control of the Senate and increase their margins.
– Republicans will forfeit seats to Democrats and concentrate on a handful (5 seats at most).
Therefore, let’s look at the developments so far:
– Republicans have already forfeited two seats to the Democrats: Virginia and New Mexico.
– Expect Colorado, a state where Obama is making strides, to be the next seat forfeited.
– Following the likely verdict of GUILTY, expect the NRSC to abandon “Uncle Ted” in Alaska.
For their part, the DSCC has also abandoned a few races, including NE, KS, and OK. All are states which McCain should win easily.
Expect Susan Collins in Maine to get the first pass by the DSCC. Sure, Maine is an inexpensive market, containing only Portland and Bangor media outlets for the most part, yet Democrats will find themselves with NEW openings.
Here is a breakdown of FORFEITED races as a result:
Republicans: VA, NM, CO, and AK.
Democrats: NE, KS, OK, and ME.
While most polls indicate he is behind, expect the DSCC to spend in protecting the “Santorum” of this cycle: John Sununu. While New Hampshire could go either way (Obama or McCain), expect voters to DUMP Sununu.
The next best hopes for Democrats are Oregon and North Carolina. Both Republicans have been placed on the defensive.
In North Carolina, Dole wished that the election would have been based on illegal immigration, yet she should have learned that this was a flawed Republican strategy from 2006. Now that the economy has taken center stage, Dole finds herself on the Outer Banks of the issue, literally. Dole is also hurt by the fact that Obama is making NC competitive, African-Americans are energized, and Northeastern transplants are favoring Obama over McCain. Bye bye Libby. Expect Reagans former Labor Secretary and another Bush “foot soldier” to be packing it up back to the Watergate, Kansas, or from wherever she calls home.
In Oregon, businessman Smith is being forced to ask questions whether or not he employed illegal immigrants. The answer is really irrelevant at this point since everyone knows that Smith was another “Yes Sir” to Bush. While some call Oregon competitive, most see it as favoring Democrats. At least Smith has a job waiting for him back home.
The final three races are Minnesota, Mississippi, and Kentucky (yes Mitch my MAN you are now in TROUBLE).
While Minnesota should have clearly favored the Democrats, Franken has proven to be a flawed candidate. Coleman is extremely unpopular and Barkley is taking votes from both (more from Franken than Coleman). The race should be interesting, yet the DSCC should not have been forced to spend in a state which Obama should win soundly.
Mississippi is Republican on the federal level, yet clearly Democratic on the state and local level. This gives Musgrove a chance. Expect the race to become more competitive in the final two weeks. Either could prevail.
Kentucky, the final straw, shares the same characteristics as Mississippi. Republican on the federal level, yet Democratic on the state level. Bush’s “Red Horse” may find himself scrambling for votes in the Blue Grass State. While Mitch does have a strong cash advantage, Kentucky has some inexpensive media outlets. Louisville and Cincinnati are the most expensive. Bowling Green, Owensboro, Ashland, and Pikeville are less expensive. Just like the Bunning race, which developed late, and ended fairly close, expect the same here. My man Mitch and his wife, the failed Labor Secretary, are indeed entrenched with Bush.
A final state, which Democrats may make an attempt for, is Georgia. However, Atlanta is a very expensive market for advertising. If Democrats feel that they have 2 of the 3 races above locked up, then expect a late minute dash against Chambliss.
For their part, Republicans are looking at three Democratic incumbents:
– Johnson in South Dakota (An absolute waste of valueable funds. Republicans have essentially given him a pass, yet could always return. Expect them to stay away).
– Lautenberg in New Jersey (There is no doubt the Lautenberg is a flawed incumbent and Corzine is extremely unpopular. However, New Jersey is extremely expensive, Philadelphia and New York are the two major media markets. Atlantic City being the sole remaining market. Lautenberg’s base has always been in Northern New Jersey. He is less favored in South Jersey. Central New Jersey, which favored Lautenberg in the primary, will decisively determine him as the victor in a closer than expected race).
– Landrieu in Louisiana (This is essentially the most vulnerable Democrat, yet vulnerable with a small V. Even with the exodus of African-Americans from New Orleans, Landrieu has proven effective in constituent services. Republicans will advertise against her, yet at the cost of another Republican incumbent – Coleman, Smith, Dole, or Wicker).
In the end, expect all three Democratic incumbents to WIN.
Expect Democrats to pick up VA, NM, CO, AK, NH, NC, and OR.
Also expect, KY, MN, or MS to possibly fall.
GA will be the long shot in the end.
