Word comes from Politico that Tim Mahoney may, at this late date, decide not to seek re-election, according to “a Democratic leadership aide with ties to his campaign.” (No direct comment from Mahoney’s campaign, of course.)
The article, if you were to create a word cloud, would include such phrases as “paid $121,000 to a former aide,” “threatened to sue Mahoney for sexual harassment,” “allegedly had a second affair,” and “FBI has begun a preliminary investigation.” And Mahoney doesn’t think he can survive all that? Quitter! Bwak bwak bwak bwak…
Well, if this indeed happens, then it seems like we’re looking at a virtual repeat of 2006, where GOP candidate Mark Foley bailed out shortly before the election, and substitute candidate Joe Negron was handicapped by being referred to as “Mark Foley” on the ballot. (And yet Negron barely lost: one more tribute to Mahoney’s political skills.) So this opens up the question: what FL-16 Democrat would get to play the role of “Tim Mahoney” on this year’s ballot? Despite this district’s R+2 lean, it doesn’t seem like we have much of a bench in this district (which is what led to previously-unelected ex-GOPer Mahoney running for us in the first place).
A quick look through the Florida legislature doesn’t seem to indicate any Democratic state senators in the 16th (except possibly for Dave Aronberg (I say ‘possibly’ because there seems to be partial but not total overlap between the 16th and the state districts)) and almost no state representatives (probably Richard Machek, and possibly Shelly Vana). Anyone from the area, please feel free to chip in with other names.
In this edition of my reports on Oregon political news, I talk about how the Oregon Democrats keep improving their chances of a big win in 19 days. Namely, voter registration for Democrats has crushed all previously existing records and Jeff Merkley, for the second quarter in a row, outraised Gordon Smith.
With the conclusion of the voter registration period on Tuesday, the near final voter registration numbers are now in (registrations count if they were postmarked by Tuesday so these may increase slightly). The winner is unquestionably the Democratic Party. In 2004 there were 829k Democrats and 762k Republicans (these numbers are misleadingly high because the old county by county system meant that if you moved within the state your name was often not removed from your old county’s list). As of Tuesday there are 928k Democrats and 693k Republicans, a record number of Democrats and a record gap between the two parties for Oregon. To quote the article discussing these numbers
According to the state Elections Division, between May 21 and Wednesday, 4,123 registered Democrats became Republicans. During the first four months of the year, 2,106 Democrats did the same. For all of 2008, 26,657 Republicans switched their registration to Democrat and 6,229 Democrats became Republicans, a net gain of 20,428 registered Democrats. The Democrats did even better among nonaffiliated voters, who make up about 20 percent of the Oregon electorate. Since Jan. 1, 52,064 previously nonaffiliated voters registered as Democrats and 6,344 as Republicans, a net gain of 45,720 for the Democrats.
I do not yet have the breakdown by district or county but a look at the most recent statistics available there, covering through the end of last month (http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/sep08.pdf) shows that Democrats have made gains statewide and that, for example, even if you removed Multnomah County (Portland) from the picture) Democrats would still have a statewide registration edge of around 70k voters, more than they had four years ago.
Merkley Outraises Smith for the Second Quarter in a Row:
Following the submission of Gordon Smith’s fundraising numbers for last quarter, I can now safely say that Jeff Merkley once again outraised Smith. According to the wonderful Sarah Lane, Netroots director for Merkley, these are Smith’s numbers:
$1.87 million raised
$4.8 million spent
$1.5 million on hand
.
We know from previous reports that Merkley raised somewhere in the $2-$2.1M range last quarter and although expenditures/COH numbers are not yet available, Merkley looks to be in great shape. Further proof that Merkley’s grassroots-based fundraising effort can outraise the lobbyists and special interests that fund Smith’s campaign.
New Poll Confirms Schrader dominates Erickson in OR-5:
The first poll of the year is out in OR-5 and Democrat Kurt Schrader leads Republican Mike Erickson 51-38 (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=66f4a22a-0b85-4b86-9040-84643db392ec). Although there are some strange findings in this poll, such as that younger voters slightly prefer Erickson, it is further proof the long-held belief that Schrader will cruise this fall.
My Favorite Local Ads
The following are my three favorite local ads of the cycle:
Suzanne VanOrman (D), running against Ultimate Fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland (R) for State Rep:
Greg Matthews (D), running against John Lim (R):
No on 64 ad (Ban on Political Deductions for Public Employee Unions):
If there was ever an indicator of just how unloved Mike Erickson is, it’s the fact that Erickson could only rustle up $31K in campaign contributions this quarter (he made up for the rest of his expenses with his own checkbook). Of course, this scathing non-endorsement of Erickson from The Oregonian is also a pretty good indicator, too.
SurveyUSA (10/13-14, likely voters, 9/17-18 in parens):
Kay Barnes (D): 40 (42)
Sam Graves (R-inc): 51 (51)
Dave Browning (L): 4 (4)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
This race was one of the earliest pickup opportunities touted by the DCCC in 2007, and for a while it looked like former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes would make this one a real monster of a race. While she’s certainly been spending heavily in recent weeks (and so has the DCCC), and I still wouldn’t count her out yet, it’s disappointing that we haven’t seen any promising poll numbers from this race in quite some time.
We’ve been talking about the $500,000 dropped by the DSCC into Atlants, but according to subcription-only Roll Call, they’re doing more than we originally thought.
As a result, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has begun dumping cash into the race. According to Democratic sources, the DSCC this week gave cash to the state Democratic party to help pay for an ad buy that the state committee would be taking out against Chambliss.
Additionally, the Atlanta Journal Constitution on Wednesday reported the committee had made a $500,000 television ad buy. According to the paper, the DSCC will run ads on five television stations serving the Atlanta area. The ad is scheduled to run 369 times, largely during prime time and newscasts, by next week, the paper reported.
Roll Call did not say how much was transferred to the GA State Party, but it is obvious by now the DSCC takes this race very seriously. Should be a lot of fun!
SurveyUSA for Roll Call (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jim Himes (D): 48
Chrissy Shays (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±4%)
Shays’s favorables: 43-32; Himes: 39-22. Shays has a small lead among independents, 46-42, but it’s not going to be enough. That’s because Obama leads McCain 59-37 in this district – in other words, Democrats are energized. (Remember, Kerry carried this district by just six points.)
This race is far from over, but I wouldn’t want to be in Shays’s shoes right now.
Apparently a Garin-Hart-Yang poll showed incumbent Roscoe Bartlett only beating Jennifer Dougherty by six points. Being from Maryland, this was an absolute shock to me. No one thought this would be close.
Tonight’s the night when House candidates must file their third quarter fundraising reports with the FEC. So instead of posting the numbers in full after midnight, I think I’ll try something different this time — I’ll just post the embedded chart and you can watch as I fill it in. I’ll be here all night, folks. The tip jar is at the bar.
Congressman Bill Sali and his campaign staff disrupted a NewsChannel 7 reporter and a representative for his opponent during an interview Tuesday in Downtown Boise
KTVB reporter Ysabel Bilbao was interviewing Walt Minnick’s campaign director John Foster Wednesday afternoon. During the interview, someone loudly yelled and was laughing during the interview at the Grove plaza.
Bilbao and Foster initially ignored the intrusion, but quickly noticed the source of the heckling: Sali and members of his staff.
Foster stopped the interview and noted the commotion.
“I am sorry I was a little bit distracted,” Foster said. “I think at some point you even have to question his maturity.”
Foster said he saw Sali making faces at him and holding up “bunny ears.”
What an utter boob. And Sali’s response?
“Look, I think that the Minnick campaign needs to take an approach like we have,” he said. “I wish they would be a little more light hearted instead of so mean spirited.” […]
After this story first appeared, a representative for Sali’s campaign challenged the characterization of the incident as heckling.
“I sincerely apologize if you took it as heckling. That’s absurd,” spokesperson Wayne Hoffman said via e-mail. “If we can’t laugh at ourselves, then what have we become?”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee has decided to pull its television advertising out of Louisiana, a decision that drastically reduces the party’s chances at its lone takeover opportunity in this election cycle.
The ads, according to buy information obtained by The Fix, will end next Tuesday — two weeks before the Nov. 4 election between Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) and state Treasurer John Kennedy (R).
NRSC communications director Rebecca Fisher offered no comment when asked about the move to pull down the ads. […]
The NRSC’s decision to pull their resources out of the state makes Kennedy’s task significantly more difficult. Those familiar with the Kennedy campaign argue he will have enough resources to win the race but with Landrieu and the DSCC now pounding him on television it’s hard to see how the NRSC’s pull out as anything but bad news for Kennedy’s chances.
Remember how doomed Mary Landrieu was supposed to be this year? Remember how giddy Republicans were when Karl Rove himself poached turncoat Democrat John Kennedy to run against Landrieu? Remember when certain prognosticators called this race “a tossup all the way until election day”?
Looks like we can finally close the book on all of that.