Month: January 2009

The elves were busy while I was taking Christmas off, and now that I’ve picked the crowdsourcing project back up, we’ve made another big jump, taking us to the point of having presidential election results for 3/4s of all congressional districts.

Results from the first wave are here, and results from the second wave are here. If you want to see all results in one place, they’re permalinked here. Also, please check out our master database; although we’ve made a lot of headway, there’s still plenty to do if you have access to precinct-level data (however, the remaining states are the ones that tend to be most coy about releasing precinct-level data, so those remaining districts may never see daylight until Polidata somehow solves those enigmas).

District	Obama #	McCain #	Other #	2008 %	2004 %	2000 %
CA-01	199,835	96,530	8,264	65.6/31.7	60/38	52/39
CA-02	125,291	161,636	7,041	42.6/55.0	37/62	33/61
CA-03	165,617	164,025	6,440	49.3/48.8	41/58	41/55
CA-04	167,604	206,385	8,368	43.8/54.0	37/61	36/59
CA-05	165,776	67,625	4,709	69.6/28.4	61/38	60/35
CA-06	253,087	73,345	6,802	76.0/22.0	70/28	62/30
CA-07	179,037	66,272	5,450	71.4/26.4	67/32	66/31
CA-08	266,210	38,665	7,519	85.2/12.4	85/14	77/15
CA-09	260,662	29,186	5,919	88.1/9.9	86/13	79/13
CA-10	204,138	104,624	6,972	64.7/33.1	59/40	55/41
CA-12	214,850	69,029	5,213	74.3/23.9	72/27	67/29
CA-13	175,838	56,299	4,270	74.4/23.8	71/28	67/30
CA-17	171,180	61,163	4,932	72.1/25.8	66/33	60/33
CA-22	110,910	172,792	5,879	38.3/59.7	31/68	33/64
CA-25	134,222	131,201	6,010	49.5/48.3	40/59	42/56
CA-26	149,249	137,329	5,885	51.0/47.0	44/55	44/53
CA-27	157,100	75,286	5,219	66.1/31.7	59/39	60/36
CA-28	147,958	42,815	3,492	76.2/22.0	71/28	73/24
CA-29	159,947	71,860	4,840	67.6/30.4	61/37	58/38
CA-30	242,022	95,869	5,710	70.4/27.9	66/33	68/28
CA-31	113,941	25,441	3,280	79.9/18.3	77/22	77/19
CA-32	119,726	52,356	3,557	68.2/29.8	62/37	67/31
CA-33	205,470	27,672	3,539	86.8/11.7	83/16	83/14
CA-34	106,695	33,056	3,023	74.7/23.2	69/30	72/26
CA-35	165,761	27,789	2,923	84.4/14.1	79/20	82/17
CA-36	176,924	92,105	5,754	64.4/33.5	59/40	57/39
CA-37	157,219	36,940	3,388	79.6/18.7	74/25	76/22
CA-38	130,092	48,599	3,846	71.3/26.6	65/34	70/28
CA-39	128,579	63,680	4,117	65.5/32.4	59/40	62/36
CA-40	114,025	125,066	5,456	46.6/51.1	39/60	41/56
CA-41	119,255	147,982	5,890	43.7/54.2	37/62	41/56
CA-42	128,474	152,256	5,529	44.9/53.2	37/62	39/59
CA-43	112,020	49,594	3,216	68.0/30.1	58/41	64/34
CA-44	133,535	131,003	5,169	49.5/48.6	40/59	44/53
CA-45	142,305	129,664	4,251	51.5/46.9	43/56	47/51
CA-46	145,393	150,937	6,921	47.9/49.8	42/57	42/55
CA-47	77,144	48,461	2,672	60.1/37.8	49/50	56/42
CA-48	163,063	160,584	7,091	49.3/48.6	40/58	40/58
CA-49	117,283	137,739	4,805	45.1/53.0	36/63	39/59
CA-50	172,962	158,845	5,616	51.3/47.1	44/55	43/54
CA-51	135,960	76,438	3,021	63.1/35.5	53/46	57/41
CA-52	135,848	161,332	4,827	45.0/53.4	38/61	40/57
CA-53	177,863	77,930	5,101	68.2/29.9	61/38	58/38
GA-01	96,818	167,122	2,149	36.4/62.8	34/66	38/62
GA-02	130,109	111,559	1,322	53.6/45.9	50/50	52/48
GA-03	129,895	235,263	3,178	35.3/63.9	29/70	32/68
GA-04	208,874	54,868	1,974	78.6/20.7	71/28	70/30
GA-05	249,927	63,053	2,734	79.1/20.0	74/26	73/27
GA-06	133,716	227,701	4,301	36.6/62.3	29/70	32/68
GA-07	140,009	212,721	3,710	39.3/59.7	30/70	31/69
GA-08	123,877	162,376	1,978	43.0/56.3	39/61	42/58
GA-09	70,366	225,929	3,611	23.5/75.3	23/77	29/71
GA-10	113,915	183,441	2,773	38.0/61.1	35/65	37/63
GA-11	103,112	204,275	3,987	33.1/65.6	29/71	35/66
GA-12	143,624	120,150	1,733	54.1/45.3	49/50	52/48
GA-13	200,567	80,327	2,180	70.9/28.4	60/40	57/43
IN-01	184,871	111,895	2,582	61.8/37.4	55/44	56/42
IN-04	141,946	184,389	3,509	43.0/55.9	30/69	32/66
IN-05	143,447	210,103	3,172	40.2/58.9	28/71	30/69
IN-07	191,381	76,530	2,056	70.9/28.4	58/42	56/43
IN-09	149,587	151,543	3,783	49.1/49.7	40/59	42/56
KS-01	79,638	184,501	4,813	29.6/68.6	26/72	29/67
KS-02	133,759	170,279	6,003	43.1/54.9	39/59	41/54
KS-03	186,196	177,019	5,148	50.6/48.1	44/55	42/53
KS-04	113,418	166,705	5,440	39.7/58.4	34/64	37/59
NY-18	184,182	112,214	2,294	61.7/37.6	58/42	58/39
NY-19	160,645	153,424	3,100	50.7/48.4	45/54	47/49
OH-01	164,824	133,576	3,147	54.7/44.3	49/51	46/51
OH-02	126,796	190,109	4,297	39.5/59.2	36/64	34/63
OH-03	155,610	167,897	4,830	47.4/51.1	46/54	45/52
OH-04	112,543	176,973	5,882	38.1/59.9	34/65	35/62
OH-05	136,666	159,433	5,981	45.2/52.8	39/61	37/59
OH-07	142,154	171,568	5,194	44.6/53.8	43/57	42/56
OH-08	118,915	189,578	5,499	37.9/60.4	35/64	36/61
OH-09	194,682	113,095	4,925	62.3/36.2	58/42	55/41
OH-10	174,575	115,005	5,489	59.2/39.0	58/41	53/42
OH-11	245,149	41,606	2,463	84.8/14.4	81/18	79/18
OH-12	213,177	183,233	5,172	53.1/45.6	49/51	46/52
OH-15	167,441	139,425	5,486	53.6/44.6	50/50	44/52
OH-18	112,545	128,735	6,122	45.5/52.0	43/57	41/55
OR-02	155,301	192,627	10,632	43.3/53.7	38/61	35/60
OR-04	200,841	161,645	11,572	53.7/43.2	49/49	44/49
PA-01	246,006	32,174	1,310	88.0/11.5	84/15	84/15
PA-02	270,695	26,521	1,264	90.7/8.9	87/12	87/12
PA-08	186,372	157,544	3,814	53.6/45.3	51/48	51/46
PA-11	164,451	121,559	3,229	56.9/42.0	53/47	54/43
PA-12	131,544	132,497	3,892	49.1/49.5	51/49	55/44
PA-14	209,771	86,927	2,886	70.0/29.0	69/30	70/28
PA-15	162,471	122,163	3,804	56.3/42.4	50/50	49/48
PA-16	150,341	161,844	2,719	47.7/51.4	38/61	36/62
PA-17	144,897	152,406	3,737	48.1/50.6	42/58	41/56
PA-18	149,824	186,297	3,215	44.2/54.9	46/54	47/52
TN-01	75,052	181,912	3,829	28.8/69.8	31/68	38/61
TN-02	104,287	195,540	4,600	34.3/64.2	35/64	39/59
TN-03	103,817	174,248	3,600	36.9/61.9	38/61	41/57
TN-04	92,924	173,841	4,917	34.2/64.0	41/58	49/50
TN-05	166,293	128,615	3,636	55.7/43.1	52/48	57/42
TN-06	112,064	189,729	4,721	36.6/61.9	40/60	49/49
TN-07	123,063	230,779	3,397	34.4/64.6	33/66	40/59
TN-08	110,390	144,957	3,255	42.7/56.1	47/53	51/48
TN-09	196,824	56,130	1,432	77.4/22.1	70/30	63/36
TX-02	105,736	159,141	1,805	39.7/59.7	37/63	37/63
TX-03	124,027	171,119	3,283	41.6/57.3	33/67	30/70
TX-04	90,191	206,621	2,992	30.1/68.9	30/70	34/66
TX-05	90,135	158,356	2,128	36.0/63.2	33/67	34/66
TX-06	112,025	167,778	2,243	39.7/59.5	34/66	34/66
TX-07	121,472	173,162	2,673	40.9/58.2	36/64	31/69
TX-08	73,428	213,450	2,464	25.4/73.8	28/72	31/69
TX-09	137,619	40,240	850	77.0/22.5	70/30	69/31
TX-10	149,112	183,908	3,987	44.3/54.6	38/62	34/67
TX-11	56,939	182,074	2,332	23.6/75.4	22/78	25/75
TX-12	99,083	171,408	2,539	36.3/62.8	33/67	36/64
TX-13	52,691	175,174	2,087	22.9/76.2	22/78	25/75
TX-14	88,532	177,370	2,230	33.0/66.2	33/67	36/64
TX-16	118,178	60,279	1,773	65.6/33.5	57/44	59/41
TX-17	78,756	166,649	2,351	31.8/67.3	30/70	32/68
TX-18	150,973	43,292	1,104	77.3/22.2	72/28	72/28
TX-19	64,541	168,789	1,912	27.4/71.8	23/77	25/75
TX-20	115,470	64,724	2,163	63.3/35.5	55/45	58/42
TX-21	149,261	214,569	4,299	40.6/58.3	34/66	31/69
TX-22	129,414	183,172	2,454	41.1/58.1	36/64	33/67
TX-23	124,568	117,704	2,348	50.9/48.1	43/57	47/54
TX-24	124,128	153,758	2,688	44.2/54.8	35/65	32/68
TX-25	176,016	118,183	4,805	58.9/39.5	54/46	47/53
TX-26	135,285	185,468	2,746	41.8/57.3	35/65	38/62
TX-28	103,037	80,192	1,251	55.9/43.5	46/54	50/50
TX-29	66,808	40,884	815	61.6/37.7	56/44	57/43
TX-30	170,826	37,465	1,306	81.5/17.9	75/25	74/26
TX-32	96,203	110,397	2,509	46.0/52.8	40/60	36/64

A few words about some of the states. Many of you have already seen the California numbers, which californianintexas published in her excellent diary; for those of you who haven’t, here they are on the front page again. There are unfortunately some California districts missing; a number of large counties (Santa Clara, San Joaquin, Ventura, and Fresno especially) haven’t provided precinct-by-precinct data, so districts incorporating parts of those counties can’t be completed.

The missing precinct-level data problem explains missing districts in certain other states, too. (In some cases, there was missing data for smaller counties, but I made a judgment call that the counties in question were small enough that they wouldn’t affect the overall percentage much, so they’re included.) In Indiana, we’re still missing data for Allen and Elkhart Counties, so that rules out IN-02, IN-03, and IN-06. (I already did the 8th in the first wave.) The partial totals for the left-out districts are still available in the Indiana database (the same is true for OH, PA, and TX as well), if you click the link. They may well be very close to the actual percentages, but there’s just no way of knowing.

In Ohio, large counties we’re missing include Mahoning, Trumbull, and Medina, so we’re short OH-06, OH-13, OH-14, OH-16, and OH-17.  Pennsylvania is missing Montgomery, Butler, and Cumberland Counties among others, so there we’re also missing the PA-03, PA-04, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, PA-09, PA-10, PA-13, and PA-19. (MontCo also occupies a tiny bit of PA-02, PA-08, and PA-15, but it’s such a small percentage of those districts I decided to let it slide.)

In Texas, Cameron County is missing, so that leaves out TX-15 and TX-27. (I also did the 1st and 31st in the first wave.) Finally, there’s the matter of New York, where only a few counties bother to report by precinct. Luckily, two of them are Westchester and Rockland, so at least we can do NY-18 and NY-19 there.

There was also one missing county in Oregon, which kept me from including OR-02 and OR-04 in the first wave. I found enough information about Josephine County to decide how to allocate its votes (66.8% of the county’s voters voted for a candidate in the OR-02 congressional race, while 33.1% voted in OR-04, so I just applied those percentages to the presidential race).

In Georgia, as with many of the other southern states, early votes aren’t broken down, so what jeffmd did, as before, was to use both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ totals, where soft totals included early votes allocated proportionately. I’m including the soft totals (otherwise, we wouldn’t have even won GA-02 and GA-12, where victory clearly depended heavily on black turnout).

So what are some of the highlights in this data set? Check out some of the traditionally Republican districts in California (where in many, not coincidentally, we came very close to surprising long-term incumbents) like CA-03, CA-26, CA-44, and even GOP strongholds like CA-25 and CA-48: all won by Obama.

Some of the biggest gains were in Indiana, especially in the Indianapolis area, where both the city itself (IN-07) and its right-wing suburbs (IN-05) zoomed to the left. Amazing what you can accomplish when you actually try to contest a formerly uncontested state.

One area where the GOP might take heart is western Pennsylvania, where there’s apparently the one district in the nation that flipped from going for Kerry to going narrowly for McCain: John Murtha’s PA-12. Also, the Philly burbs didn’t move as much as one might expect (the needle barely budged in PA-08 in Bucks County); where the biggest progress occurred in Pennsylvania was out in places like Lancaster and Harrisburg (see PA-16 and PA-17).

Texas is a very complicated tapestry: in many rural parts of the state, there was no real improvement from 2004, despite the loss of the favorite son effect. For example, expect TX-13 to replace UT-03 as the district with the worst PVI once they recalculate. And look at TX-08, where both growing right-wing exurbs and declining Dem fortunes in the Beaumont area were a double-whammy. Contrast that, though, with not just hugely improved percentages in the minority districts, but also a lot of progress in the suburban districts that we’ve discussed a lot recently where the minority growth is accelerating: TX-10, TX-22 (where the growth wasn’t enough to save Nick Lampson, sadly), TX-32, and especially TX-24 in the area around DFW airport.

And, as always, if more results trickle into the master database, I’ll be sure and post them to the front page. So keep on number-crunching!

New Hampshire Governor John Lynch is probably the most popular Democrat in the state, and seems like the ideal candidate to take on Senator Judd Gregg in 2010. However, today at a press conference he’s taken himself out of the running in pretty definitive fashion:

“I can tell you that although I don’t know what I’ll be doing in 2010, I’m not going to run for the United States Senate. So, that shouldn’t be a distraction as I continue to work on the budget.”

Given that Washington has seemed to be outside of Lynch’s comfort zone, however, his demurral shouldn’t be seen as too much of a surprise. Speculation will continue to focus on New Hampshire’s two Democratic representatives, Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter.

From PPP

When it comes to whether they would prefer to see Kennedy or Andrew Cuomo

appointed, 58% now prefer Cuomo to 27% for Kennedy.  Cuomo is favored by 65% of

Republicans, 59% of independents, and 54% of Democrats.  A PPP survey conducted a

month ago showed Cuomo as the top choice for just 23% of Democrats, compared to

44% who wanted Kennedy.

“When Caroline Kennedy was first mentioned as a possible Senate appointee there was a

lot of enthusiasm among New York Democrats about her,” said Dean Debnam, President

of Public Policy Polling.  “Her reputation has taken a pretty clear hit over the last month,

and if Governor Paterson does end up appointing her she’s going to have some work to

do to overcome this bad first impression she’s made on New York voters.”

57% of New Yorkers view Andrew Cuomo favorably with just 20% having an

unfavorable opinion of him.  For Kennedy the numbers are 44% favorable and 40%

unfavorable.

PPP surveyed 700 New York voters on January 3rd and 4th.  The survey’s margin of error

is +/-3.7%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce

additional error that is more difficult to quantify.  

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

EDIT:

New York State voters have cooled on Caroline Kennedy and more voters now prefer State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 31 – 24 percent for Hillary Clinton’s U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney gets 6 percent, with 5 percent for U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, 2 percent for U.S. Rep. Steve Israel, 18 percent for someone else and 14 percent undecided.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128…

The most striking thing in this poll to me is the lowering of Kennedy’s favorable from a previous poll, and the rapid increase in Cuomo’s favorables and choice of New Yorkers’ of him as the next Senator.

Doesn’t this mean that Patterson should move quickly to appoint, given that he has interviewed about 15 people and because the public is so far in one person’s corner.  

EDIT: Also look at the q poll which shows a smaller margin.

Or is Cuomo not the right person?

Ya, Obama is really destroying the Democratic Party.  Whatever.  Illinois, New York and DEelaware are their golden opportunities?!?  What is Cornyn smoking?  “Big John” Cornyn deathwatch thread time?

Cornyn: Obama Helping Senate GOP in 2010

Sen. John Cornyn, the Texas Republican tasked with helping his party bounce back in the Senate, argued Wednesday that the Senate GOP has been inadvertently helped by Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats.

“President-elect Barack Obama has given us some opportunities,” said Cornyn.

Cornyn, the newly installed chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the GOP went from having no chance in Illinois to a fairly good one.

“I don’t see how Mr. Burris can separate himself from the circumstances of how he was appointed,” said Cornyn.

Cornyn did not name any specific Illinois Republicans who are planning to run for the Senate in 2010 but Rep. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., is considered a top contender.

In New York, Cornyn thinks Republicans could be helped if Gov. David Paterson appoints Carolyn Kennedy, a political novice, to replace Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., Obama’s nominee for Secretary of State.

“Caroline Kennedy has never run for office before,” said Cornyn.

Cornyn cited Rep. Peter King as a New York Republican seriously weighing a Senate bid now that Clinton is expected to become the nation’s top diplomat.

Cornyn is also eyeing Colorado where Obama’s selection of Ken Salazar to be Secretary of the Interior removes a seasoned politician from the seat.

Gov. Bill Ritter has chosen Michael Bennet, the well-regarded Superintendent of Denver public schools, as Salazar’s replacement.

The NRSC is also hoping to put Delaware, the home state of Vice President-elect Joe Biden, into play.

Democrat Beau Biden, the state attorney general and son of the vice president-elect, is expected to seek the seat which will be held for the next two years by Ted Kaufman, a former Biden staffer who agreed not to run in 2010.  

The NRSC chair said Republicans have also been helped by Obama’s nomination of Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano to be Secretary of Homeland Security and former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack to be Secretary of Agriculture.

The appointments remove Napolitano as a possible challenger to Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Vilsack as a possible challenger to Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa.

Cornyn downplayed speculation that Grassley would be the next Senate Republican to retire by saying that the Iowa Republican has held eight fundraisers since the new year.

Cornyn, who was sporting a pair of black boots with his business suit, made his comments in Washington, D.C., during a pen-and-pad briefing with reporters.

PPP (1/10-11, registered voters):

Robin Carnahan (D): 45

Roy Blunt (R): 44

Robin Carnahan (D): 47

Jim Talent (R): 43

Robin Carnahan (D): 47

Sarah Steelman (R): 36

(MoE: ±3.3%)

As we suspected, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is more or less the front-runner for the open seat left behind by Kit Bond’s retirement. At the same time, it’s not currently a cakewalk for her, as Rep. Roy Blunt and ex-Sen. Jim Talent poll within close striking distance of her.

I’ll admit I’m surprised to see Blunt so close to Carnahan and in fact doing better than Talent, considering that Blunt, at least in his House leadership role, seemed like an unlikable, polarizing figure (and add to that the fact that Talent has run statewide a number of times, while Blunt may not be that well known outside MO-07). That’s just not my gut talking; PPP finds that Blunt is the only one of the four candidates with greater unfavorables than favorables (he’s at 40/43, while Carnahan is at 45/36 and Talent is at 45/39.

PPP has a good explanation, though. Their crosstabs suggest that Blunt has a large bipartisan core of support in his conservative southwestern House district, and some of that support includes a fair number of Democrats in his district who apparently would support Carnahan in a Carnahan/Talent matchup.

Given the voting results in 2008, we should actually be very hopeful for 2010.  Obama took 52.41% to McCain’s 45.99%, while Paulsen took 48.48% to Madia’s 40.85%.  The outlier?  An independent candidate taking 10.56%.  

So, who are our best candidates going into 2010 to unseat this incumbent?

-Terri Bonoff (D), State Senator

-Ashwin Madia (D), Iraq War Veteran, past candidate in 2008

-Jim Hovland (D), Mayor of Edina

-Paul Rosenthal (D), State Representatives

All three of these candidates, except for Rosenthal, have “run” in the past, and are known in the community.  If one has to handicap the race, it is clear that Madia was a disappointment to DFLers, which would give Bonoff the clear opportunity to step up and challenge Paulson.  

See below for bios and more analysis.

Probable Candidates:

Terri E. Bonoff is a Democratic Farmer Labor Party member of the Minnesota Senate, representing District 43 since a special election in November 2005. Her district includes portions of Minnetonka, Plymouth and Medicine Lake.

Bonoff serves as Vice Chair of the E-12 Budget Division, and as a member of the Education Committee, the Business, Industry and Jobs Committee, and the Transportation Budget and Policy Committee. Her stated legislative interests include education, transportation, health care and the environment.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T…

Madia was endorsed by VoteVets.org.[6] He was also endorsed by the Teamsters Local 120[7] and the United Auto Workers Minnesota State CAP Council.[8] Because of his progressive views on LGBT issues, Madia also received the endorsement of Minnesota StonewallDFL [9] LGBT group and eQualityGiving.[10]

According to Madia’s website, he hoped to “draw on his record of leadership, service, and advocacy to represent the 3rd District in the U.S. Congress. Madia ran on positions such as ending the war in Iraq responsibly, balancing the budget, addressing global warming, expanding access to health care, renewing the federal commitment to education, and safeguarding constitutional liberties”. He also said that he will abide by the endorsement of Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.

Ashwin Madia earned a majority of delegates at the senate district conventions that took place across the 3rd District on March 1[11], March 8[12], and March 15.[13]. At the 3rd District DFL endorsing convention, which took place on April 12, 2008, Madia and his final opponent, State Senator Terri Bonoff, competed with indecisive results through eight ballots. Following the eighth ballot, Bonoff dropped out.[14]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A…

I am not going to post much about Hovland because I don’t think he has a chance given he didn’t get a delegate in the DFL race.

Here is the person I think could come out of nowhere.  Paul Rosenthal, newley elected State Representative of 41B.

Altogether, my personal and professional experiences have introduced me to many issues that create either opportunities or roadblocks for our state, businesses and neighborhoods.  My parents taught me that one person who stops complaining and works hard can achieve solutions. Now, I want my own children to see that lesson in action.

I was drawn to Minnesota 17 years ago because I saw it as a model of social progress, good jobs and fiscal responsibility.  Working together, we can make state government work for Minnesotans again in the 21st century.

Now, I don’t want to relive the battles of 2008, but there were a lot of discussions about Paulsen’s education stances, and if Rosenthal really delved into education as Vice Chair of the Early Childhood Finance and Policy Division, then he could attack Paulsen very easily, either in 2 or 4 years.  

The typical route the DFL goes, from what my memory serves, is that they will go back to the next strongest candidate as opposed to looking to new ones.  That means that State Senator Terri Bonoff will be the person that most people see as the front runner.

Also, Bonoff is slated to be the main person, according to my friend in her district, on education reform, which would lend to her ability to counter Paulsen.  

So, who is missing here?  Any other surprises that we could expect?  

Also, what suggestions do you have for me for these threads?

Little Bobby Portman wants to make good:

Rob Portman will run for the U.S. Senate in 2010, the former Cincinnati congressman told The Enquirer.

“I’ve made up my mind. I really think that our state is in such deep economic trouble right now, and our country has so many challenges that it’s time to step forward,” Portman said in a phone interview.

Portman, 53, of Terrace Park, said he will make a formal announcement of his candidacy at an 11 a.m. event at the Golden Lamb in Lebanon. He’ll then depart on a two-day campaign announcement tour through the state with stops in Toledo, Cleveland, Columbus and ending back in Cincinnati with an event at the Montgomery Inn on Thursday.

I’m really looking forward to watching the DSCC do their thing against this Bush lackey. Still, I have to wonder if any of the other potential candidates (Ken Blackwell, state Auditor Mary Taylor, and Mike DeWine) will make it a contested GOP primary. Let’s hope so!

Last week we had some unexpected fireworks in the Texas State House of Representatives, where the Republicans have a narrow numeric edge but a coalition of Democrats and non-insane Republicans joined together to kick out long-time, thuggish Speaker Tom Craddick in favor of a more moderate Republican. Today, a very similar scenario played out on in the Tennessee House of Representatives.

The Democrats have long held the Tennessee House, and the GOP’s pickup of the chamber (by a 50-49 margin) was one of the few surprises on the state legislative front in the 2008 election. Tennesseans seemed resigned to at least two years of wingnuts-gone-wild, under the leadership of House Republican leader Jason Mumpower (not to be confused with one of SSP’s favorite punching bags, eccentric failed NC-11 candidate Carl Mumpower).

However, outgoing Democratic Speaker Jimmy Naifeh came up with a bright idea: promote Kent Williams, probably the most moderate member of the GOP caucus, as Speaker. The result: Williams beat Mumpower by a vote of 50-49 (all the Democrats, plus Williams himself). While Williams will continue to be a Republican, he promises that a number of committee chairs will be Democrats.

Tennessee Republicans, in the aftermath, conducted themselves with their usual level of decorum and graciousness:

Speaker Williams said he heard expletives being used by fellow Republicans. He said he still considers himself a Republican and emphasized that he would be fair to Republicans and Democrats. He predicted that history will show that this will be a “great thing” for the state.

When state Rep. Gerald McCormick, R-Chattanooga, approached the new Speaker, Rep. Williams warned him that if he used “the f-word,” he would be thrown out.

Rep. McCormick responded by telling the new Speaker that he is a “disgrace to the state. You are a disgrace to the state.”

Let’s start looking at the seat that freezer-burn cash built.

-Helena Moreno (D), TV Personality

-William Jefferson (D), former Congressman

-Karen Carter Peterson (D), Speaker Pro Tem, State House

-Edwin Murray (D), State Senator

-Cheryl Gray (D), State Senator

-Keva Landrum Johnson, New Orleans District Attorney

Every week, I am going to try to start up a new thread on a possible cool race to identify possible candidates.

Probable Democrats:

I see the two clear front runners being people who have run before against Jefferson, Helena Moreno, and Karen Carter Peterson.  EDIT: Cedric Richmond has been added.  See bios:

-Helena Moreno (D):

Throughout her college years, Helena wrote for the SMU college newspaper, The Daily Campus. She interned with KHOU-TV and KTRK-TV in Houston. In 1999, Helena graduated and immediately began working as a television reporter in Savannah, Georgia’s WTOC. In short order, she began anchoring on the weekends. One year later, Hearst-Argyle Broadcasting Corporation recruited Helena to report for its New Orleans station, WDSU-TV.

Her journalistic talents earned top honors from the Associated Press and Press Club of New Orleans. She was part of the team that earned an EMMY for outstanding coverage of Hurricane Katrina. During Katrina, Helena reported non-stop for 18 hours through the worst of the storm, and then reported throughout the recovery.

http://www.morenoforcongress.com/

She took 43% of the primary vote away from Jefferson this time around and would make a formidable candidate again.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2…

-Karen Carter Peterson (D)

Peterson is a political protégé of Jim Singleton, a former city councilman and the leader of the powerful BOLD political organization. With the help of BOLD, Peterson was elected in 1999 to the Louisiana state legislature as a representative for the 93rd district, which encompasses New Orleans’s CBD, the upper French Quarter, and parts of Central City and Mid-City. In the state legislature, she was one of the most vocal supporters of a plan to reform the New Orleans public school system by putting it under state control, and was a backer of the levee board consolidation bill. Peterson is a member of the moderate Democratic Leadership Council.

http://house.louisiana.gov/H_R…

She took 49% in 2006 again Jefferson, and can make the claim that she alone was fighting against him and his corruption.  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K…

-Cedric Richmond (D)

After passing the Louisiana Bar Exam, Cedric was elected to the Louisiana House of Representatives where he has been a leader and served with distinction since 2000. Currently, he is the Chairman of the committee on Judiciary and a member of the Ways and Means, House Executive, and Legislative Audit Advisory committees.

Cedric has been instrumental in many important issues in the legislature. He created the State New Markets Tax Credit program which spurred over 250 million dollars in investment in Louisiana’s devastated areas after the storms of 2005. He also secured funding for small business incubators and grant programs. As a member of the and Co-chairman of the Legislative Audit Advisory committee, Cedric was vital in ending the waste and misappropriation of funds in the Orleans Parish School system.

During his tenure in office, Cedric has remained a strong advocate for the people of his district and vows to continue to keep fighting to make tomorrow and all of the tomorrows to come better.

He got 17% against Jefferson and Moreno is 2008 in the Democratic Primary.

http://www400.sos.louisiana.go…

Other Dems:

Now, there are other democrats who could make an entry, from what I can tell, who would be good.  I have listed them below and provided links:

-Edwin Murray (D), State Senator

Represents the French quarter and has served in some post since 1992.  Is well known in the district and could be the only bona-fide male running which would be to his advantage.  

http://www.edwinmurray.com/ind…

-Cheryl Gray (D), State Senator

Gray appears to highlight her crime and education reform issues, which is appealing in New Orleans post-Katrina.  

http://www.electcherylgray.com…

-Keva Landrum Johnson, New Orleans District Attorney

Might be appealing because she is African-American, a woman, and someone who is viewed with genuine respect.  Is a registered Democrat.  

http://blog.nola.com/times-pic…

So, who is missing?  How needs to be eliminated?  Who needs to be considered more closely?  Is Jefferson going to run again?

http://www.minnpost.com/politi…

Looks like RT Rybak is out of the race for governor.  Chris Coleman, St Paul mayor, is also running for re-election.  That leaves:

Susan Gaertner, Ramsey County Attorney

Mark Dayton, Former (1 Term) Senator

Matt Etenza, Former MN House Democratic Leader

Margaret Kelliher, MN Speaker of the House

Mark Ritchie, MN Secretary of State

Paul Thissen, MN Rep

Tom Bakk, MN Sen

Tim Walz, US Rep

I don’t think Kelliher will run.  I hope Dayton doesn’t.  Walz looks like the clear favorite.