Month: February 2009

As a companion to this Senate chart, below is a table listing committee assignments for freshmen members of the House in the 111th Congress (data taken from here):

None of these freshman critters were, of course, lucky enough to make it on to the Appropriations Committee. But when they do get there, there is just one thing they must remember:

(Credit to Crisitunity for uniting Shepard Fairey’s two most iconic images under one geek banner.)

The 2010 Census is coming up, and that means new Congressional districts. After the 2000 Census, New Jersey has 13 districts. After the 2010 Census, New Jersey is projected to have 12 districts. It will lose a district because it has not kept up with national population growth.

Here is the current Congressional Districts:



For a better view of the Congressional Districts, see this pdf provided by the state government.

Some observations:

1. 8 of the districts are represented by Democrats. 5 are represented by Republicans.

2. Some of the districts have very odd shapes. It looks ridiculously gerrymandered.

3. Many individual cities and towns are divided between 2 districts. (Jersey City is in 3 districts.) However no city in New Jersey has enough population to fill a congressional district.

4. 5 of the 21 counties have 4 districts in them. 4 more counties have 3 districts in them. However only a few counties (just Essex, Bergen, and Middlesex) have enough population to fill a congressional district.

5. The district numbers don’t make sense. They seem to be numbered at random. It would look better if the 5th and 12th switch numbers.

Some goals for drawing the new districts should include: make the districts as compact as possible, keep municipalities together at all times, keep counties together as much as possible, and number the districts in a way that makes sense.

When New Jersey does its redistricting, they focus on incumbent protection. Since 2000, one one district has changed parties. (We can still change that in 2010.) Only 3 others have even changed representatives! The 2010 plan should make the district that flipped (NJ-03) more solidly Democratic. But this time NJ is losing a district, so not all of the incumbents can be protected. Ask any NJ Democrat which Congressman they would like to see eliminated, and the answer will invariably be Scott Garrett. So my 2010 map turns the 3 Republican districts in Northern NJ into 2 Republican districts.

I used 2007 population estimates provided by the Census to create the new districts. The estimate for New Jersey is 8,686,000 people. That means each district has close to 724,000 people.

Here is what I came up with:



Look at those beautiful compact districts!

Numbers on the right map are population per district per county, in thousands.

Feel free to steal it. If you want a blank template without numbers and county names then email me.

Representative		old#	new#	old PVI	new PVI
Rob Andrews	D	1	2	D+14	D+13
Frank LoBiondo	R	2	1	D+4	D+1
John Adler	D	3	3	D+3	D+6
Chris Smith	R	4	4	R+1	R+4
Scott Garrett	R	5		R+4
Frank Pallone	D	6	6	D+12	D+12
Leonard Lance	R	7	7	R+1	R+9
Bill Pascrell	D	8	12	D+12	D+9
Steve Rothman	D	9	11	D+13	D+8
Donald Payne	D	10	9	D+34	D+32
Rodney Frehlinghuysen	R	11	8	R+6	R+1
Rush Holt	D	12	5	D+8	D+12
Albio Sires	D	13	10	D+23	D+23

Note: PVI’s are based on the 2000 and 2004 Presidential Elections. New PVI’s are guesses, not calculations.

NJ-01:

Current district NJ-02 has a fairly strong Dem PVI, but Republican Congressman Frank LoBiondo manages to keep getting reelected easily. Except for the Atlantic City area, it is mostly rural. Due to slow population growth in the region, it will have to expand after 2010. It will almost certainly expand into Ocean County (conservative), and probably lose ground in Gloucester County (liberal). Therefore this district will become more Republican after 2010. If a Democrat wants to challenge Frank LoBiondo then 2010 is the year. After that it will get harder.

NJ-02:

Current district NJ-01 is centered around Camden and its immediate suburbs. In 2000 it was designed to be the only Dem district in South Jersey, so it packs in all the Dem strongholds around Camden (directly across the border from Philadelphia). The region’s population growth has not kept up with the national average, so the district will expand. It can’t expand into Cherry Hill because John Adler lives there. All of Camden and Gloucester County minus Cherry Hill and Merchantville has the right number of people to fill a district, according to 2007 Census estimates.

NJ-03:

NJ-03 is the only district that flipped parties this decade. It was designed to keep electing Republican Congressman Jim Saxton. In 2008 Saxton retired and Democrat John Adler won it 52-48. The district in its current form has 2 population centers. Cherry Hill and western Burlington County is strongly Democratic. Ocean County is strong Republican. The huge swath of land in between is sparsely populated. The way to make this district safer for Adler is to remove the Ocean County part, and add more Burlington County. In order to get enough people, the proposed district extends into Mercer County to include Hamilton and Trenton.

NJ-04:

In 2008 Chris Smith was elected to his 15th term in Congress. He was first elected to Congress at the age of 27, and he will keep getting reelected for as long as he wants. If we can’t beat him then we should pack more Republican parts into his district. His current district includes parts of Mercer, Burlington, Monmouth and Ocean counties. To make it more Republican, take out the Mercer and Burlington parts (and give them to Adler in NJ-03), and add more Monmouth and Ocean. Monmouth and Ocean counties are trending more Republican. Obama won a smaller percent of the vote in these 2 counties than Gore did in 2000. Chris Smith lives in Hamilton so he will have to move. That won’t be hard because he actually lives in Northern Virginia and he rents an empty apartment in Hamilton.

NJ-05:

This is the Rush Holt district (currently NJ-12 for some reason). The current district is weird-shaped because it reaches into Hunderdon and Monmouth Counties. The proposed district will consist of only Mercer, Middlesex and Somerset. This plan shows the district spanning from Hopewell to Edison, including both Princeton and Rutgers Universities.

NJ-06:

Current NJ-06 is probably the craziest-shaped district in the state. Proposed NJ-06 is much better. It’s still not as compact as the others because it has to follow the coast. The reason for its crazy shape was probably to take in only the very-Democratic parts, so there can be 3 Republican districts in North Jersey. With only 2 Republican districts in North Jersey it is much easier to give NJ-06 intelligible boundaries. Frank Pallone lives in Long Branch, on the Monmouth shore, so the Monmouth shore will continue to be part of the district, even as the region trends more Republican.

NJ-07:

Current NJ-07 is the other very crazy-shaped district. Most of its population is in the high-density suburbs in Union and Middlesex County. But Congressman Leonard Lance is from rural Hunterdon County. To make this district a better fit for Lance I removed Union and Middlesex and added Sussex, Warren, and “outer” Morris.

NJ-08:

This is now the second Republican district in North Jersey. It is made out of the current districts NJ-07 and NJ-11. Rodney Frehlinghuysen will be the incumbent Congressman and he should be able to get reelected easily. But this may become a swing district when it opens up.

NJ-09:

This is the majority-black district. Using 2000 demographic information, the proposed district is 48% black. 48% is enough to elect a black Congressman because black people are more likely than white people to vote in the Democratic primary. It is centered around Newark and the Oranges. The current NJ-10 is 58% black but I traded some black population for compactness.

NJ-10:

This is the majority-Hispanic district. It consists of Hudson County plus Elizabeth. This just happens to have the right number of people for a district. This proposed district is 43% Hispanic. 43% should be enough to elect a Hispanic Congressman (see above). The current NJ-13 is 48% Hispanic. This proposed configuration is nice and compact. There are other possible centers of Hispanic population (Passaic, Paterson) but it would take some creative gerrymandering to reach them.

NJ-11:

The current NJ-09 is in Hudson and Bergen County. The proposed NJ-11 is entirely within Bergen. Northern Bergen County is currently part of NJ-05, represented by Scott Garrett. Show this map to any Dem in Bergen County and you will be greeted as a liberator.

NJ-12:

Proposed NJ-12 consists of the rest of Bergen County, most of Passaic County, and bits of Essex County. Urban northern NJ is losing population, so Steve Rothman and Bill Pascrell are getting pushed into the suburbs.

Cross-posted on Daily Kos.

Vile:

U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning predicted over the weekend that U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg would likely be dead from pancreatic cancer within nine months.

During a wide-ranging 30-minute speech on Saturday at the Hardin County Republican Party’s Lincoln Day Dinner, Bunning said he supports conservative judges “and that’s going to be in place very shortly because Ruth Bader Ginsburg … has cancer.”

“Bad cancer. The kind that you don’t get better from,” he told a crowd of about 100 at the old State Theater.

It’s pretty easy to see why national Republicans want nothing to do with this mess of a man.

The other day, I relayed some informed speculation that Charlie Crist could face a serious primary challenge from his party’s right wing if he were to run for Senate – despite his lofty poll numbers. That’s because Crist is carving out a very public profile these days as a moderate, particularly with regard to stimulus spending.

But apart from a few non-insane fellow travelers like Arnold Schwarzenegger, the GOP has made opposition to the stimulus the sine qua non of modern-day Republicanism. The Florida GOP is no exception, and now its most conservative faction has trotted out George P. Bush (Jeb!’s son) to chide Charlie:

George P. Bush may not be ready to follow his father, grandfather and uncle into politics just yet, but he is trying to help the Republican Party regain a conservative message, which on Saturday included criticism of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist.

Bush, the son of former Gov. Jeb Bush, grandson of former President George H.W. Bush and nephew of former President George W. Bush, addressed a national conference of young Republicans and told them there is a rift in the party between fiscal conservatives and what he calls “D light” — Republicans trying to appeal to the political middle.

“There’s some in our party that want to assume that government is the answer to all of our problems,” Bush said. “I’m not going to name any names.”

Of course, he did go right ahead and name names:

Afterward, Bush said he doesn’t think Crist is a fiscal conservative and that he may have hurt himself with some Republicans for his appearance with Obama and his support of the stimulus plan.

“That will be on his track record, and people are going to remember that,” Bush said, adding that Crist is running the risk of falling in the “D light” category of the party.

“There are numerous actions that I have seen legislatively that do not speak to a strong conservative; it speaks more to a moderate,” Bush said. “That’s fine, but when you run as a conservative and then you lead as a moderate, that’s one thing that any leader would have to reconcile.”

Could this be a prelude to a fierce moderate-vs-conservative primary fight for the Senate nomination? Or could malcontents like George P. even be hinting at a gubernatorial challenge, if Crist chooses to stay put? This isn’t just a fight for the soul of the Florida Republican Party, but really the GOP itself. Crist is their most prominent moderate on the national scene, and from the wingnut point of view, he must be kneecapped.

I’m starting to really believe we could see a major R-on-R food-fight here. Let’s at least keep our fingers crossed!

President Obama’s Homeowner Relief Plan is an important step towards resolving the current financial crisis. In particular, I support the key premises of the plan: 1) Preventing foreclosures will keep houses from being dumped onto the market, which drags down the value of neighboring properties and perpetuates the downward spiral in real estate prices; and 2) It is crucial to keep families in their homes in order to minimize the human toll of this serious economic downturn.

However, the President’s plan can be improved in a way that would accomplish both of those objectives while minimizing the cost to taxpayers and holding borrowers accountable for imprudent borrowing decisions. The government should place a lien on any property that is eligible for mortgage relief equal to the difference between the old and new mortgages. If the property is eventually sold at a profit, as is likely to happen with many of these properties when the real estate market eventually recovers, then taxpayers ought to recover some or all of the government funds that were used to keep homeowners in their homes during these difficult times.

As an example, the program might work like this in the 5th District:

A homeowner currently has a $200,000 mortgage on a home in Franklin Park that is now worth $180,000 and the payments are no longer affordable. The President’s plan would avert foreclosure by offering a new, more affordable $150,000 mortgage. However, this plan should also include a lien on that home for $50,000, which is the amount of taxpayer-funded relief offered to this homeowner.

If the property is eventually sold for $280,000, the government would receive $50,000 at the time of the sale. The property owner would still benefit from the appreciation in the value of the property; however, it is fair that the taxpayers be reimbursed for having averted foreclosure during this sharp downturn in the real estate market.

If a home does not appreciate in value before being sold, then the lien would not be exercised. Similarly, if a property appreciates only modestly, then only some percentage of the lien would be collected. The point of the program is simply to recover the cost of taxpayer assistance from the profits that would otherwise go to homeowners who have benefited from this government program.

President Obama’s plan is a crucial step towards stabilizing the housing market. This modification would reduce its total cost for taxpayers and impose a reasonable responsibility on the homeowners who take advantage of the mortgage relief.

From the right-leaning KYPolitics.org:

A political bombshell this weekend from several well-placed GOP sources, in Frankfort and Washington: State senate President David Williams met with officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) on Friday to discuss his interest in running for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Jim Bunning.  Williams, in town for the National Governor’s Association winter meeting, impressed GOP officials, who called his interest “serious.”

Over at The Hill, Reid Wilson confirms the scoop. The real question for Williams is does he actually want to enter a primary battle against Bunning? He recently supported a tax increase on alcohol and tobacco — something that wouldn’t go over well with the GOP rank-and-file.

This news is pretty extraordinary. It’s hard to think of another recent example of a campaign committee so actively working to dump one of their incumbents — even going so far as to line up a potential primary foe. I’m looking forward to hearing Bunning’s response to this chicanery.

It’s the third year that Democrats control both chambers of the Iowa legislature as well as the governor’s chair, and party leaders want to seize the opportunity to pass some good labor legislation. In 2007, Democrats controlled the Iowa House 53-47 but couldn’t find enough votes to pass a “fair share” bill that would have forced individuals represented by unions to stop being “free riders.” In 2008, Governor Chet Culver angered labor activists by vetoing a bill that would have expanded collective bargaining rights. That prompted several major labor unions in Iowa to stop giving to Culver’s campaign committee.

This week a “prevailing wage” bill dominated debate in the Iowa House. It’s one of organized labor’s top legislative priorities for this session. Democratic leaders want to pass this bill, and Culver, who wants to heal last year’s wounds, has spoken out strongly on the issue.

Although Democrats now have a 56-44 majority in the lower chamber, they were unable to find a 51st vote for the prevailing wage bill during five hours of debate on Friday. Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy now plans to keep the vote open all weekend, sleeping in the chamber, until some Democrat’s arm can be twisted on this issue.  

I don’t want to wade too far into the Iowa weeds here; I’ve written more on this mess at Bleeding Heartland.

I’m bringing this to the attention of the Swing State Project community because it underscores the cost of the inadequate get-out-the-vote effort last year on behalf of our statehouse candidates.

Last summer Barack Obama’s campaign took over the “coordinated campaign” role from the Iowa Democratic Party and promised to work for candidates up and down the ticket. But staffers and volunteers in the unprecedented number of Obama field offices didn’t even collect voter IDs for our state House and Senate candidates. Our legislative candidates weren’t usually mentioned in scripts for canvassers and rarely had their fliers included in lit drops. After the election, Rob Hubler, the Democratic candidate in Iowa’s fifth Congressional district, took the unusual step of publicly criticizing the GOTV effort.

In the end, Obama carried this state by 9 points, but we lost several excrutiatingly close races in the Iowa House (more details on that are at Bleeding Heartland). If even one of those races had gone the other way, we would have the votes to pass the prevailing wage bill without the fiasco that is now unfolding.

The Iowa Democratic Party must run a better coordinated campaign in 2010 and must insist that the GOTV in 2012 is about more than re-electing President Obama. Even Obama’s general election campaign director in Iowa, Jackie Norris, admitted that more could have been done for the down-ticket candidates:

I also think that a lot of the people who voted were new voters and while we educated them enough to get them out to support the president they need to now be educated about the down ballot races.

I have stopped donating to the Democratic National Committee for now, because I am concerned that new DNC chairman Tim Kaine plans to replace efforts to strengthen state parties across the country with a 50-state strategy to re-elect President Obama.

We need better coordinated campaigns to GOTV in 2010 and 2012, because even if Obama remains as popular as he is now, support for him will not magically translate into votes for other Democratic candidates.

As the fate of the prevailing wage bill in Iowa shows, lack of attention to down-ticket races will affect what Democrats can achieve long after the election.

The rumor mill is churning out a now-famous name:

One of the more interesting rumors rattling around in Democratic circles is that Lilly Ledbetter might run for AL-03 against Republican incumbent Mike Rogers in 2010. Interesting to think about, unlikely to happen, one reason being that she is over 70 years old. While several have heard the rumor, no one could tell the Parlor where it might have started.

Democrat Josh Segall challenged Rogers in 2008 and is said to be strongly considering another run. Another name in the mix on the Democratic side could be Calhoun County Commissioner Robert Downing.

I agree that Ledbetter is probably past the age where most people would consider making a first run for office, but it’s an interesting thought nonetheless. Alabama’s third CD was originally drawn to help elect a Democrat, so this district is potentially fertile territory. In 2002, Republican Mike Rogers won by just 50-48 when the seat was open. And last year, the unheralded and outspent Josh Segall held Rogers to a relatively meager 53-47 win.

So, Ledbetter or no, this could be a sleeper seat worth watching.

(Hat-tip: alpolitics)

I was seriously thinking of hiding the receiver when the switch broke ’cause it’s old. They’re saying things that I can hardly believe — they really think we’re getting out of control.