Month: March 2009

• NJ-Gov: Another day, another ugly poll for Jon Corzine. This time, it’s this month’s installment of the Quinnipiac poll. Not much change from last month: Chris Christie leads Corzine 46-37, up a bit from 44-38. This despite 61% of voters not knowing enough about Christie to form an opinion of him!

• KY-Sen: Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson may be the guy on the GOP’s wish list for the Kentucky Senate seat, but he said yesterday that he’s running for Senate only if Jim Bunning retires. (What are the odds on that?) Meanwhile, state senate president David Williams is accusing Grayson and Bunning of being in cahoots to shut him out of the race. Good times.

• CT-Sen: You gotta love Joe Lieberman, always there to lend a helping hand. Lieberman announced that he’s supporting Chris Dodd for re-election, even though Dodd supported, y’know, the Democrat in the 2006 general. As Lanny Davis puts it, “Being a mensch and a friend is more important than carrying a grudge.”

• CO-04: Nice to see that someone can get a job in this economy: Marilyn Musgrave has emerged from months of post-defeat seclusion to take a leadership position with something called the Susan B. Anthony List, apparently a bizarro-world EMILY’s List that supports anti-abortion female candidates for office. (No word on whether Anthony plans to sue to get her name back.) It’s unclear whether this is permanent or Musgrave is staying close to donors until a rematch in CO-04.

• KS-01, KS-04: Mike Huckabee (who overwhelmingly won the Kansas caucuses) is wading into the primaries to fill the two safe GOP seats left vacant by the Jerry Moran/Todd Tiahrt scrum for the open senate seat. He’s endorsing state senator Tim Huelskamp in KS-01 and state senator Dick Kelsey in KS-04. RNC member Mike Pompeo is also expected to run in KS-04, while ex-aide to Sam Brownback Rob Wasinger and businessman Tim Barker are already running in KS-01.

• Maps: Here’s a nice resource to bookmark, from Ruy Teixeira and the Center for American Progress: it’s a collection of interactive maps showing state-by-state 04-08 and 88-08 shifts, along with piles of 08 exit poll data.

• MN-Sen: As if you needed one more reason not to donate to Republicans, the Norm Coleman campaign accidentally made public 4.3 GB of donors’ personal data, including credit card numbers and security information.

The Daily News:

Gov. David Paterson’s former fundraiser, Cindy Darrison, has officially signed on with the man widely seen as the governor’s top potential rival in 2010: AG Andrew Cuomo. …

Darrison departed after Spitzer was elected in 2006 and was brought back by Paterson soon after he ascended to the governor’s office last spring in the wake of Spitzer’s prostitution scandal.

Darrison said her firm, Darrison Barrett & Associates, will joining Cuomo’s campaign team as a consultant. Cuomo’s finance chair, Amy Dowell, will continue on in her current role.

This could all just be a bunch of inside baseball, but of course it might also be a signal that Cuomo is gearing up to take on the floundering Paterson in the Dem primary next year. Now, even if he doesn’t, Cuomo would still have to seek re-election to the AG post. But a) surely he has fundraisers from his 2006 campaign ready to work for him again and b) it’s doubtful he’d face serious competition. So this suggests to me he’s at least getting the pieces in place in case he does want to go for the brass ring. (Shoulda named him to the Senate, Guvnah.)

The Hill:

Republicans appear to have another repeat candidate in 2010, as former Rep. Virgil Goode (R-Va.) has filed to reclaim the seat he lost in November.

Goode filed Wednesday with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) – a move that allows him to raise money for the race – but he has not publicly said what his 2010 plans are. Regardless, the race is sure to be a top GOP target.

Former Reps. Bill Sali (R-Idaho) and Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) have also filed to run for the seats they lost in 2008. While Chabot is all-in, Sali has not officially stated whether he will follow through with the campaign.

As the article says, filing a statement of candidacy may just be a keeping-the-door-open move. But Goode seems to have at least one foot through the portcullis. Last month, he was seen staging absurd events where he was handing out giant checks to institutions which received earmarks in the most recent omnibus spending bill, even though he’s of course no longer in Congress and didn’t vote on the legislation which disburses this money!

So this makes me feel there are better-than-even odds that Goode will pull the trigger on a rematch. And personally, I think Perriello’s better off going up against a retread rather than a fresh face.

Siena College (3-9/10, likely voters, 2/18-19 in parentheses):

Scott Murphy (D): 41 (34)

Jim Tedisco (R): 45 (46)

Eric Sundwall (L): 1 (n/a)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Yesterday you may remember that the Scott Murphy camp came out with an internal poll showing a 7-point lead for Jim Tedisco, but I questioned whether the race was actually closer than that, given that the internal poll was more than two weeks old and the intervening weeks involved a lot of hammering on Tedisco for his inability to commit one way or the other to the stimulus package. I may have been on to something: Siena comes out with another poll (so finally we have some trendlines) of NY-20, and Murphy has shaved his previous 12-point deficit to 4.

As you can see from the trendlines, Tedisco is holding steady while Murphy is vacuuming up the undecideds. Tedisco also doesn’t seem to be impressing anyone new: his favorable/unfavorable is 49/30, which looks good on the surface, but two weeks ago he was at 47/20. (Murphy’s favorable/unfavorable is 40/25, up from 29/10, so his ad blitz is at least erasing his #1 problem, lack of name recognition.) The trajectory of the trendlines points to a very close race, and this being a special election, it’s likely to boil down to turnout, enthusiasm, and ground game.

This poll also breaks down the race by region within the district. Tedisco has a big edge in suburban Saratoga County, where he’s ostensibly from (he represents Schenectady in the state assembly, which is outside the district), while Murphy has a big edge in the district’s blue-collar northern counties (Murphy is from Glens Falls). The two are close in the Hudson Valley counties south of Albany, which looks to be the swing area where the real battle will be fought.

As I’m sure you’ve read elsewhere, this race is also turning into a bit of a behind-the-scenes referendum on RNC chairman Michael Steele. While I’m starting to look forward to winning this race, one unfortunate consequence of winning may be the end of the Steele chairmanship… which, at least in terms of driving the media narrative, has so far proven to be a much bigger gift to Democrats than one more seat in the House.

UPDATE: The RNC can read polls, too. They just transferred $100,000 to the New York GOP to buttress Tedisco’s campaign.

So we are still about a year and a half away from the 2010 primary election and you must be thinking I’m insane. However, I indicated about a week ago that I was going to make an announcement early in my 2010 endorsement for the Alabama 7th Congressional District seat. Not only am I making an endorsement, but I am announcing to going to be working with  Shelia Smoot who  just formed a committee to be a candidate for the seat to be vacated by Artur Davis.

I’m telling everyone now so that they will know where I am coming from when I talk about this race or my candidate. I have found that I like it when bloggers are candid in their affiliations with candidates. So I am practicing what I preach.   Below the thread is more info on my candidate.  

Why Smoot?

I have known Shelia since 2001 and believe that she would be an excellent representative for the constituents of the 7th Congressional District. I find her to be concerned about all people and always willing to lend a helping hand. I’ve talked to people throughout the country that have stories about how Shelia helped them in some capacity.

She also will surround herself with competent people who understand the issues important to those in her community. She knows that transportation and infrastructure, health care, senior housing and creation of jobs are the most pressing of those issues in the 7th Congressional District.

I know several other candidates will likely announce and I welcome all of those to enter the race. I believe that it will be a spirited campaign that will be about how to improve the quality of life in the 7th Congressional District.

I know some of the other potential candidates and I genuinely like them. I think this will be an election with good options. I also have friends who will be working with some of the other candidates.

While not a factor in my choice, I also think it is time that we send the first African American Female to Congress. Alabama needs a female representative in Congress and Shelia Smoot has been a trailblazer throughout her career as a journalist and as a politician.

Our website is under construction, so please let me know if you have any questions or comments.  

Ok, this is going to be short, but a sweet little piece of gossip.  My boyfriend and I were just over at his two best friends’ house.  We got to talking politics and it turns out that one of them personally knows the mayor of Rogers, Steve Womack, who’s thinking about running against senator Blanche Lincoln.  According to him, “Steve is the man who once said he was going to ‘run all the n***ers, f*gs, and (something else, I forget what exactly as it was a little unusual sounding) out of my town’ in front of…(wait for it)…the city council meeting!”  So somewhere in the public record are some really nasty racist comments by a potential Republican senate candidate…boy I can’t wait for this to break!

From the Hotline on Call:

The release of ex-Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick’s text messages earlier this week could threaten to derail MI AG Mike Cox’s (R) GOV campaign before it officially gets underway.

In the messages, Cox reportedly suggested he would clear Kilpatrick of any wrongdoing relating to a party at Manoogian Mansion before a probe into the bash even began.

(The rumored ’02 gathering was grist for the Detroit gossip mill after stripper Tamara Greene reportedly filled out a police report claiming she was assaulted by Kilpatrick’s wife, Carlita, during the “out-of-control” party at the mayor’s official residence. Greene later was shot to death, and the killing remains unsolved.)

Former Detroit Corporation Counsel Ruth Carter texted Kilpatrick on 5/19/03: “[Cox] called me and asked who we would rather be cleared by him or (Wayne Co. Prosecutor Mike) Duggan. I said him.”

After an investigation by his office, Cox told reporters 6/24/03: “The party has all the earmarks of an ‘urban legend,’ and it should be treated as such.”

In his defense, Cox does make a good point – why would he bother helping the likes of Kwame Kilpatrick? In the often crazy world of Michigan politics, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some kind of reason. Any ideas?

AP:

A leading Democrat in the New York City mayor’s race says he may not run this year, after all.

Rep. Anthony Weiner, a U.S. congressman who represents parts of Brooklyn and Queens, said in a letter to supporters Wednesday that the nation’s economic crisis “is a time for problem solving” in Washington.

He says he’ll reassess his plans in a few months.

Assuming Weiner does pass on the race, this clears the field for Comptroller Bill Thompson. I thought both would make good candidates, so as long as Thompson doesn’t bail, too, I think this could be a good move. New York has an extremely late September primary, and given Bloombo’s monstrous resources, Dems need to be united. This is still a very tough race, but quite a bit less so than in 2005.

Roll Call:

According to an HOH tipster who witnessed the scene, the Louisiana Republican arrived Thursday evening at his United Airlines gate 20 minutes before the plane was scheduled to depart, only to find the gate had already been closed. Undeterred, Vitter opened the door, setting off a security alarm and prompting an airline worker to warn him that entering the gate was forbidden.

Vitter, our spy said, gave the airline worker an earful, employing the timeworn “do-you-know-who-I-am” tirade that apparently grew quite heated.

That led to some back and forth, and the worker announced to the irritable Vitter that he was going to summon security.

Vitter, according to the witness, remained defiant, yelling that the employee could call the police if he wanted to and their supervisors, who, presumably, might be more impressed with his Senator’s pin.

But after talking a huffy big game, Vitter apparently thought better of pushing the confrontation any further. When the gate attendant left to find a security guard, Vitter turned tail and simply fled the scene.

Best snark in the comments wins a prize.

(Hat-tip: Taegan)

• CT-Sen: All the warning signs are there for Chris Dodd, and now a respected pollster confirms that even “Generic R” holds the incumbent well under 50%. In all likelihood, a serious race is in store here for Team Blue, so SSP is moving our rating on this race to “Likely Democrat.” (D)

• CA-32: The Governator has finally set the dates for the special election to replace Hilda Solis in the House: July 14. But the key date to watch is May 19, when there will be a special primary for the seat. With a number of strong Dems in the race, including state Sen. Gil Cedillo and state Board of Equalization Chairwoman Judy Chu, the real action is in the primary in this D+17 district. (Candidates of all parties rumble in one primary, and if one candidate breaks 50%, there is no general. With a third solid Dem in the race, investment banker Emanuel Pleitez, breaking 50% will be difficult, setting up a likely general election between the top Dem and a sacrificial GOPer.) (J)

• SC-01: Looks like GOP Rep. Henry “Smoky” Brown might be facing a pretty crowded primary field in 2010. In addition to yesterday’s news that Carroll “Tumpy” Campbell III would run against the crusty incumbent, Paul Thurmond, the son of the late Strom Thurmond, is now saying that he too is considering taking on Brown. (J)

• PA-Sen: Roll Call does some interesting number crunching, revealing just how bad a position Arlen Specter starts from in a GOP primary against Pat Toomey. The problem is that Specter beat Toomey by only 17,000 votes in 2004, but Republican enrollments in Philadelphia and its suburbs (Specter’s base, and location of most of the state’s moderate Republicans) have dropped by 83,412 since then. With a closed primary, Specter may have to rely on moderate ex-GOPers who switched parties in 2008 to switch back tactically for 2010 to save his bacon in the primary. (It’s not unheard of: Ed Rendell wooed pro-choice Republicans to temporarily switch over for his 2002 gubernatorial primary against pro-life Bob Casey Jr.)

• CT-05: Connecticut’s executive director of the state Office of Military Affairs (and former Rob Simmons aide) Justin Bernier has resigned his post. Bernier told the New Britain Herald that he’s doing so in order to lay the groundwork for a run against Chris Murphy (who had little trouble disposing of state senator David Cappiello in 2008).

• Census: There wasn’t much doubt that incoming Commerce Secretary Gary Locke would have command over the 2010 Census (rather than direct White House control), but the White House officially confirmed the arrangement today.