Month: March 2009

After nary a peep in months from the office of Dem Rep. Ben Chandler on the subject of a potential challenge to GOP crumb-bum extraordinaire Jim Bunning, Chandler tells the AP that he’s considering making a bid after receiving encouragement from the DSCC. He’s even gone so far as to meet with Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear on Friday to discuss his potential run. (Hat-tip: Senate Guru)

If Chandler were to jump in, this would set up a primary battle with Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo. Attorney General Jack Conway and state Auditor Crit Luallen are also considering the race, with Conway seemingly being the most eager of the pair to run. However, in a recent interview with Page One, Conway said he was “regularly speaking” with both Luallen and Chandler about a bid, and I would expect both of them to back off if Chandler pulls the trigger.

Meanwhile, Jim Bunning is already casting aspersions on wide swaths of his home state:

At a Fourth District Lincoln/Reagan Day Dinner in Boone County, Bunning said, “I need your support to offset Lexington, Louisville and some other people who don’t think like we do in Northern Kentucky.”

True, Bunning didn’t go so far as to call these folks “fake Kentuckians”, but I still don’t think a strategy of polarizing the vote around the Cinci ‘burbs is going to cut it for him.

Many of you are aware that New Jersey is one of the two states with high profile Governor races in 2009, and some of you may know that former US attorney and Bush toadie, Chris Christie is the republican frontrunner to challenge Governor Jon Corzine.  And as of now, Christie has jumped out to a pretty big lead (between 10-15 points) based largely on a reputation of a tough prosecutor as well as being undefined and dodging every issue and making statements which are long on buzzwords but short on meaning.

I don’t have to give many examples of what happens when someone who is largely undefined, flies under the radar with a false persona and doesn’t do much other than repeat slogans and more-of-the-same republican talking points gets into a high level Executive office.  But when it is someone who has very questionable and deep ties to many of the worst parts of the Bush administration and has questionable loyalties – even more so in the ever deepening blue northeast – it is more than a local or regional matter.

So, it is time to start spreading the word about who Chris Christie really is – something that I have been doing in bits and pieces for close to 2 years since he first found himself on and then mysteriously off of the short list of US attorneys to be fired and the questionable events surrounding his appearance and disappearance from “the list”.  Oh yeah, his brother was also involved in a securities fraud suit while a top executive at Spear, Leeds & Kellogg while Christie was US attorney in a neighboring district, he somehow got more favorable treatment then all but a handful of the 20 people charged.

But I’ll touch on that a bit below – as the first thing that will give you a sense of what type of republican Christie would be as Governor and why it is so dangerous for him to continue to fly under the radar is an interview that he did with Brian Lehrer just the other day.  I’ll spare you the full 25 minutes here, but there are a few things that must be pointed out.  I mentioned him being the “Jersey Jindal”, and that is because of Jindal’s comments about not accepting stimulus money under certain conditions, and that is precisely what Christie said he would do as well.  Yes, another in league with “those republican Governors”.   Here is the exact quote in context as a short audio clip where he says just that.  

As we are about to make the entire Northeast (save a district here or there) blue, can we really afford to have this petty nonsensical partisan failure of a strategy at a time when there is a tremendous economic crisis in the country (and the state as well)?

His interviews and remarks tend to take on the generic republican “buzzword Mad Libs” template, and he was called on it during the interview.   His response? (audio at the link and transcript here – emphasis mine)

LEHRER: “A number of people want me to follow up again on the back and forth we had about what you would actually cut, because they said you never gave a specific answer to what you would cut, even if you wouldn’t do the same spending policies as Governor Corzine.”

CHRISTIE: “Well listen, I think again, that you know, I know people love to continue to press on that, but the fact of the matter is that Governor Corzine has a responsibility for putting together this budget and my responsibility is to critique what he’s done.”

Um…..for someone who is in the middle of the interview process for New Jersey Governor, he damn well has a responsibility to do more than just critique it.   How about an actual idea or two? other than (as he quotes), “some people are going to have to lose jobs”

That is what we have heard from the republican frontrunner for Governor in New Jersey:  People have to lose jobs and I won’t accept stimulus money.

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As I said above, there are a lot of other things about Christie that would make anyone shudder over and above the fact that we know that he wants to be called the Governor but hasn’t done or said anything to show what he would actually do as or why he wants to be the Governor.  While I’ll get into them in more detail over the next few months, here are some of the “highlights”:

• He accepted of disgraced former Mayor Giuliani’s endorsement for Governor, disregarding the fact that Giuliani took public money, tax dollars, intended to help the disabled and the poor and used it to cheat on his wife.  That’s supposed to be the kind of politician Christie hates so much it makes his head spin.  That’s supposed to be the guy Christie puts in jail.
• He awarded a lucrative no-bid contract to former boss and Attorney General John Ashcroft’s firm worth between $28 and $52 million, as well as directed similar monitoring contracts in 2007 to two other former Justice Department colleagues from the Bush administration as well as to a former Republican state attorney general in New Jersey.  If these weren’t questionable enough on their own, why didn’t Christie or Ashcroft want to testify and clear their names in this matter?
• Christie owes his political career to the Bushies, as he was a “Bush Pioneer” in 2000, meaning that he raised over $100,000 for the campaign
• Most interestingly, the story of how he got on and off the US attorney firing list has never been resolved or questioned.  In short, in January 2006, Chris Christie was on a list of US Attorney’s who were being looked at for replacement.  Then, in September 2006, in the midst of a hard-fought US Senate campaign being dominated by accusations of corruption, Chris Christie authorizes a last minute subpoena that plays into Tom Kean Jr.’s political attacks against Bob Menendez.  Miraculously, in November 2006, after the election is over, Chris Christie is taken off the list and allowed to keep his job.

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Any one of these bullet points is questionable enough.  All of them taken together blow a hole right through the “caped crusader” façade that he has built.  Added to his bobblehead approach to running for Governor, and you have a perfect storm of political incuriosity, party first mentality and questionable ethics.

This country, and the good people of New Jersey, can’t afford to have someone of those characteristics in a position to appoint replacement Senators, act as a fair executive with the people of the state’s interests first and be in charge of the administration of elections – even more so with one of the least reliable voting machines in the country.

Manhattanville College (PDF, 2/28-3/5, registered voters, no trendlines):

David Paterson (D-inc): 36

Rudy Giuliani (R): 50

Undecided: 14

Andrew Cuomo (D): 51

Rudy Giuliani (R): 36

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.4%)

I still very much doubt that Rudy will run, but these are ugly numbers for Paterson nonetheless. His favorables are 41-46 and his job approval is 29-66, matching what we’ve seen in other polls. I don’t love Andrew Cuomo, but the deep dissatisfaction with Paterson certainly gives him the “argument” he needs to justify a run.

The Manhattanville poll is also interesting because they asked a lot of open-ended questions (something you don’t see in most surveys) trying to pin down exactly why people don’t like Paterson. It’s worth checking out for an in-depth look.

Public Policy Polling (3/5-8, registered voters):

John Carney (D): 32

Mike Castle (R-inc): 49

Undecided: 19

Chris Coons (D): 21

Mike Castle (R-inc): 56

Undecided: 23

(MoE: ±3.5%)

This poll is already a couple of days old now, but it’s still worth a look. After being given a pass by Democrats since he was first elected to the House in 1992, PPP tests Castle against two credible potential 2010 foes: former Lt. Gov. John Carney and New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (Carney has expressed interest in the race, but I’m not sure if I can say the same for Coons). The results are unsurprising: Castle would begin the campaign with a wide lead, but rests just under the 50% bubble against Carney. Tom Jensen takes a look under the hood:

Carney, who seems the more likely of the two candidates, is under performing with Democrats and several key demographics that tend to support the party’s candidates. For instance he has just a 48-34 advantage with voters in his own party, and also is at 48% with black voters and only 24% with those under 30. Those numbers would all likely improve a good deal if he made the race.

There’s also a matter of name recognition, which is still an issue for Carney despite a high profile gubernatorial primary campaign last fall; a full 35% of voters don’t have an opinion of him either way. In other words: Carney has room to grow, and while this would be an uphill climb, he’d have an outside shot at an upset — and perhaps an even better shot if Castle’s campaign skills prove rusty.

Another point worth mentioning about this poll is the rather surprising fact that it was written up by the National Journal’s Hotline. In case you’re not aware, in previous cycles, the Hotline had clung to a strict policy of ignoring the existence of IVR (a.k.a. “automated”) polling, seemingly in adherence to the Beltway belief that automated polling is unreliable and untrustworthy (“the dog could be answering the questions!”). I’m not sure what’s behind the editorial change-of-heart over at the Hotline (perhaps the generally solid performance of IVR firms in 2008 had something to do with it), but I’m glad that they’ve made the decision to join the 21st Century.

Despite being caught kvetching like a major league douchebag at the Dulles airport a few days ago, it looks like the week is ending on a positive note for Diaper Dave Vitter, as yet another potential primary challenger has removed his name from consideration:

Family Research Council president Tony Perkins has decided not to challenge [Vitter] in next year’s Republican primary.

“I am grateful for those who’ve encouraged me to consider returning to elected office, but this is not the right time,” wrote Perkins in a letter to state party chairman Roger Villere. “Along those lines, I would like members of the State Central Committee to know that I support Senator David Vitter’s bid for reelection in 2010.”

With Perkins out, Secretary of State Jay Dardenne may be our last hope for a major R-on-R battle here… and somehow I suspect that the odds of such a cage match occurring are getting slimmer.

Meanwhile, for Team Blue, Cillizza brings up a new potential candidate whose name has escaped my notice until now: Baton Rouge-area state Sen. Rob Marionneaux.

• CT-Sen: The new lovefest between Joe Lieberman and the Democratic Party seems to be reaching the point where they need to get a room. In the wake of yesterday’s endorsement of Chris Dodd, Lieberman is today floating the idea of running in 2012 in the Democratic primary, instead of just as an independent. (Of course, unless Connecticut passes a sore loser law in the next few years, what’s the downside? If he loses the Dem primary again, he can just switch back to CfL one more time.)

• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: The GOP is running out of options for a good challenger to Harry Reid. Former state senator Joe Heck (who lost his Las Vegas-area seat last year) has decided to run in the GOP primary against chronically embattled governor Jim Gibbons instead. (Although if Heck is going against Gibbons, what is Rep. Dean Heller planning to do then?) With ex-Rep. Jon Porter taking the K Street route and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki under indictment, the GOP’s Nevada bench is nearly empty.

• PA-Sen: Joe Torsella won’t have the Democratic primary in the Pennsylvania senate race to himself. State Rep. Josh Shapiro, a 35-year-old reform-minded legislator from the Philadelphia suburbs, is now exploring the race. This may be a tea leaf that Rep. Allyson Schwartz isn’t getting in the primary, as Shapiro (who’s in PA-13) would likely run for Schwartz’s seat instead if it were going to be open.

• CA-32: EMILY’s List has weighed in in the CA-32 primary, and they’re endorsing… believe it or not… the woman in the race: Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu. Chu’s main competition is state senator Gil Cedillo, who comes in with the endorsement of nearby House members like Xavier Becerra, Linda Sanchez, and Grace Napolitano (Hilda Solis, who used to occupy CA-32, hasn’t endorsed). The district is about 65% Hispanic and 20% Asian.

• NH-01, NH-02: We’re looking at a crowded field for Republican opponents to Carol Shea-Porter: John Stephen, who barely lost the primary last time to ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, is eyeing the race, as is Manchester mayor Frank Guinta. Businessman Jim Wieczorek also plans to run. Meanwhile, next door in the open NH-02, radio host Jennifer Horn says there’s a good chance she’ll run again in 2010.  

• FL-22: State house majority leader Adam Hasner has been launching a series of attacks on Rep. Ron Klein over EFCA… is this a preview of the 2010 race? (It’s a Dem-leaning district, but Klein’s 2008 victory margin wasn’t impressive.)

• Votes: Also on the EFCA front, Campaign Diaries has an impressively thorough chart head-counting the positions staked out by all the Democratic senators (and potential GOP votes).

• Blue Dogs: After lifting their self-imposed 20%-of-the-Dem-caucus cap to expand to 51 members, the Blue Dogs are talking about growing again, to 56 members. No word on who that might be (although the door’s apparently open to Scott Murphy if he wins).

• NRSC: Roll Call is running a story today with the banner headline “McConnell Criticizes GOP for Lack of Diversity.” What’s next? “Sanders Criticizes KFC for Serving Chicken?”

Following up on James’s post from last night (which gets my vote for funniest diary title of the year), it looks like the NRCC is putting its foot down and not letting Jim Tedisco go rogue. Tedisco has vowed to seize control of his message and run only positive ads in the remaining three weeks… not a bad idea, considering that one of the tidbits buried in the game-changing Siena poll from yesterday was that his negative ads were killing him. The poll found that Tedisco’s ads made 12% of voters more likely to back him, while 28% were less likely.

Not so fast, says the NRCC. They’re professionals, they know exactly what works based on their previous excellent track record, and are just going to keep running negative ads on Tedisco’s behalf, regardless of his ingratitude. According to NRCC spokesperson Ken Spain:

“The NRCC has an obligation to hold Scott Murphy accountable for the past he is trying to hide as a Wall Street executive whose actions represent everything that has gone wrong with our economy. We have no plans to shirk our responsibilities.”

(Cue footage of Tedisco pounding his head on his desk.)

Also today, as part of a somewhat smarter ad campaign, the Scott Murphy campaign rolled out a new ad starring the most popular person in NY-20 according to Siena: Kirsten Gillibrand, who sports a deity-like 78% favorable rating. (The ad doesn’t seem to be YouTubed yet, but you can see it at the Murphy website in the lower right corner.)

Y’know, when this campaign started off, I figured that Democrat Scott Murphy faced long odds in his bid to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in the House. But when your Republican opponent is “shaking up” his campaign three weeks before e-day after being nailed repeatedly in the press for his non-position on the recent stimulus bill, well, that’s a pretty promising sign for Team Blue. From the Glens Falls Post-Star:

Reacting to his Democratic opponent’s surge in the polls, Tedisco said Thursday he’s taking control of the content of his advertising from the National Republican Congressional Committee.

“I’m taking over and we’re going to run a campaign that relates to the people of the 20th Congressional District,” he said.

The first depiction of “the real Jim” will air in a new television commercial set to debut this evening, he said. […]

Tedisco blamed his drop in the poll on an advertising strategy that has focussed heavily on attacking his Democratic opponent.

Tedisco said going forward the content of his ads will be more positive with him making the decisions instead of the national party.

“We’re going to run a 20th District campaign and talk about the positive issues, and leave the rest of the distortions to the other side,” he said.

This reminds me a bit of the Greg Davis apology tour in Northeast Mississippi last fall — only, y’know, in advance of the vote.

The Albany Project has more.