Month: March 2009

Swing State Project is pleased to announce a final and official tally of the presidential election results in all 435 congressional districts. As you might recall, when we last left off a few weeks ago, we were still six districts shy, with only Nassau County, NY and Tuscaloosa County, AL outstanding. With these last few counties relinquishing their data, we can wrap up those last few districts, making Swing State Project the first outlet anywhere, blogosphere or elsewhere, to provide a full public release of presidential election results by CD… not just of percentages, but a transparent display of the underlying precincts, if you’re interested in delving that deep. If you want to bookmark the summary of the percentages for all districts for future reference, click here.

If you’re looking for additional detail about previously-discussed districts, see waves one, two, three, four, five, and six. For a truly ridiculous level of detail, each state’s database is accessible through our master database.

District	Obama #	McCain #	Other #	2008 %	2004 %	2000 %
AL-06	74,657	243,465	2,625	23.3/75.9	22/78	25/74
AL-07	179,227	67,554	895	72.4/27.3	64/35	66/33
NY-02	164,106	125,978	2,272	56.1/43.1	53/45	57/39
NY-03	149,995	164,682	2,654	47.3/51.9	47/52	52/44
NY-04	171,346	122,166	1,945	58.0/41.4	55/44	59/38
NY-05	128,276	73,143	1,431	63.2/36.1	63/36	67/30

As you can see, AL-06 was one of our roughest districts, in about a three-way tie with AL-04 and TX-13 for worst Obama performance. And while Obama won Nassau County on Long Island by a decent margin, he didn’t improve on Kerry’s numbers by much. In fact, the 2008 numbers in both NY-03 (the Republican part of Long Island, relatively speaking) and NY-05 (a mix of Nassau County’s wealthiest areas and working-class white and Asian parts of Queens) matched the 2004 numbers exactly. The more diverse NY-02 and NY-04 saw larger improvements.

As with the last few waves, our commitment to accuracy compels us to issue a few more minor adjustments as we’ve refined our databases and/or gotten newer numbers. And, for one last time, thanks to jeffmd, Democratic Luntz, californianintexas, Benawu, Benjamin Johnstone-Anderson, and all the other SSP contributors who helped out anonymously… you all put the “crowd” in crowdsourcing.

District	Obama #	McCain #	Other #	Updated %	What we’d said
AL-03	119,489	156,075	2,086	43.0/56.2	42.9/56.4
HI-01	152,990	61,116	3,103	70.4/28.1	70.1/28.1
HI-02	172,881	59,450	4,028	73.1/25.2	72.8/25.0
MS-01	134,066	217,671	3,475	37.7/61.3	37.8/62.2
MS-02	196,582	100,211	1,708	65.9/33.6	66.4/33.6
MS-03	130,793	209,255	2,571	38.2/61.1	37.8/62.2
MS-04	93,221	197,460	2,852	31.8/67.3	32.0/68.0
TN-01	75,255	182,499	3,836	28.8/69.8	28.8/69.8
TN-02	104,166	195,146	4,586	34.3/64.2	34.3/64.2
TN-03	103,878	174,372	3,603	36.9/61.9	36.9/61.9
TN-04	92,964	173,892	4,581	34.3/64.1	34.2/64.0
TN-05	166,231	127,795	3,620	55.9/42.9	55.7/43.1
TN-06	112,575	190,364	4,739	36.6/61.9	36.6/61.9
TN-07	121,272	229,068	3,374	34.3/64.8	34.4/64.6
TN-08	112,943	148,050	3,338	42.7/56.0	42.7/56.1
TN-09	198,153	57,993	1,456	76.9/22.5	77.4/22.1

• NRSC/NRCC: The NRSC and NRCC announced yesterday that Alaska governor Sarah Palin would headline their fundraising dinner in June, which is a big ‘get’ since she couldn’t be bothered to come out all the way to DC for CPAC. The Anchorage Daily News then reported that Palin wouldn’t be attending after all. Turns out that one hand of PalinCo doesn’t know what the other is doing… the appearance was arranged through SarahPAC, while the actual governor’s office had no idea this was happening. The NRCC and NRSC still say “that to their knowledge” she’s still coming.

• SC-01, SC-02: Linda Ketner is sounding a little iffy about a rematch against Henry Brown, worried about diminished African-American turnout in an off-year election (and also the costs; even wealthy philanthropists get hit by the recession). Former state rep. Mike Barber and state rep. Leon Stavrinakis are possibilities if she demurs. Next door, though, Iraq vet Rob Miller has begun fundraising for a rematch against Joe Wilson.

• OR-04: Peter DeFazio may get his first substantive challenger in ages; the GOP is recruiting Springfield (the district’s 2nd largest city) mayor Joe Quimby Sid Leiken to run. While DeFazio would still be a heavy favorite in such a race, he’s been mentioned frequently as a potential 2010 gubernatorial candidate, and in this D+0 district the GOP could be competitive with an open seat.

• VA-02, VA-05, VA-11: Southern Political Report takes a look at potential challengers to the three new Virginia freshmen. In VA-02, the only Republican in the race so far is Chuck Smith, an African-American, former chair of the Virginia Beach GOP, and an ex-Navy JAG, although moderate state senator Ken Stolle and Virginia Beach mayor Will Sessoms are eyeing the race. In VA-11, wealthy businessman Keith Fimian is interested in a rematch, but so is Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, who recently narrowly lost the special election to replace Gerry Connolly as chairman of the Fairfax County Board.

• CT-Sen: Robbie Simmons may not have the GOP field to himself in his bid to unseat Chris Dodd: CT GOP Chairman Chris Healy tells The Hill that former Ireland Ambassador Tom Foley and state Sen. Sam Caligiuri will also run in the Republican primary. (J)

• AL-02: Add another name to the retread watch — state Rep. Jay Love says he’s considering challenging frosh Dem Rep. Bobby Bright in a rematch next year. Another name tossed around as a potential candidate for the GOP is none other than George Wallace, Jr., who lost an open seat race in this very same district as a Democrat in 1992 to Terry Everett. (J)

The shifty bastard finally comes clean:

It’s no longer a hypothetical question.

Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco just came out against the stimulus package passed last month by Congress after having previously saying only that he supported a package with amendments. The question has been used by his Democratic opponent, Scott Murphy, in their race to succeed Kirsten Gillibrand in Congress.

“My position is: yeah, I worked as hard as I could have to get those amendments in and to get them passed. I realize now that people don’t understand that if they didn’t get passed, I would have voted no,” Tedisco said. “I’m going on the record now to say I would have voted no, because what we should have done was go back to the drawing board, get a stimulus package that truly creates jobs, invests in infrastructure and the economy.”

Shorter Tedisco: I would have voted against the actual stimulus so that I could instead vote for a non-existent stimulus. It seems that national Republicans would rather lose this seat than win with a pro-stimulus platform. Wild. I am sure Scott Murphy will eviscerate him for this nonsense.

We’ve all heard the phrase before – so-and-so couldn’t get elected dogcatcher. I have two questions, though:

     1) When and where did this phrase originate?

     2) Has there ever, ever been a contested election for dogcatcher anywhere?

I really hope the answer to number two is yes.

• NH-Sen, NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter has announced she won’t seek the Senate nomination, giving Paul Hodes a clear path and also preventing us the trouble of holding an open seat.

• PA-Sen: Ed Rendell told a local news affiliate that he, Bob Casey Jr., and Joe Biden have all tried to talk Arlen Specter into switching over to the Democratic Party, but he remains “bound and determined to stay a Republican.”

• NH-02: Stonyfield Farms CEO Gary Hirshberg, a possible candidate to replace Paul Hodes, just wrote his first diary at Daily Kos (on coal power). Is he gearing up to take on a higher political profile? (D)

• TN-Gov: Chris Cillizza fingers Mike McWherter, the son of former Gov. Ned McWherter, as the likely Democratic nominee for Tennessee’s gubernatorial election in 2010 according to “informed insiders”. McWherter, a businessman who has never held elected office, considered running for Senate last year, but ultimately decided to keep his powder dry. (J)

• AL-Gov: Alabama’s AG Troy King plans to run for re-election, rather than pursue the governor’s seat as had been rumored. King may not even survive his re-election, though, what with a gambling-related federal investigation.

• CA-Gov: Got a spare $50 million sitting around? Meg Whitman does, and apparently that’s how much she’s willing to spend out-of-pocket on her quest to become the Golden State’s next governor.

• Demography (warning: big pdf): Ruy Teixeira comes through with yet more demographics-as-destiny wizardry. His new report on the state of the nation sees an America that’s no longer a majority white Christian nation within the next ten years (where four-fifths of growth is non-white), where culture war appeals have diminished force, and where the white working class becomes small enough to lose its iconic swing vote status.

David Paterson’s mistake gets uglier by the day:

Ten New York House members are warning state Party chairwoman June O’Neill not to use party resources to help promote Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in a potential primary next year. …

Sources said this morning that the concern stems from the party sending out emails that included articles about Gillibrand’s re-election bid next year, but nothing about the other candidates considering a run.

The signatories:

     Tim Bishop (NY-01)

     Steve Israel (NY-02)

     Carolyn McCarthy (NY-04)

     Jerrold Nadler (NY-08)

     Yvette Clark (NY-11)

     Nydia Velázquez (NY-12)

     Carolyn Maloney (NY-14)

     Jose Serrano (NY-16)

     Maurice Hinchey (NY-22)

     Eric Massa (NY-29)

Personally, I think the idea of the state party not helping the incumbent is a bit ridiculous, though obviously a few somewhat influential members of Congress (and a passel of backbenchers) disagree. On the other hand, how much help can the New York State Democratic Party actually offer a sitting senator?

I guess perceptions are probably what’s most at stake here – anyone considering a challenge (or worried that the too-conservative Gillibrand might be getting too comfortable) doesn’t want the conventional wisdom to congeal around the idea that she’s untouchable. This seat might be safely blue in a general election, but this intra-party split is unpleasant in the extreme. (And note that it’s not just upstate-vs.-city – Hinchey and Massa signed the letter, too.)

The full letter is available at the link above.

It’s on:

Former Republican Rep. Rob Simmons said Sunday that he plans to run against Democratic Sen. Christopher Dodd.

Simmons said he made the decision to join the race after talking with relatives.

“The family had a long meeting today and was unanimous that I run,” he said in an e-mail message to The Associated Press. “So I am running.”

This is a pretty huge score for John Cornyn and the NRSC. While Simmons did get washed out (barely) in the 2006 Democratic landslide, he held onto a D+7.6 district for three terms after beating a complacent incumbent, Sam Gejdenson, in 2000. Simmons will bring some serious chops to the table in a state that hasn’t seen the GOP field a viable Senate candidate in, well, decades. A recent Q-poll even showed Simmons edging Dodd by a 43-42 margin.

While Dodd will still be considered the early favorite in this deep blue state, this is shaping up to be the most challenging campaign since he began his Senate career. How aggressively Dodd moves to rehabilitate his image and deflect Simmons’ scrappy attacks will be of particular interest in the coming weeks — and months.

(Hat-tip: trowaman)

From today’s (16 March 2009) Politics1 update:

P2012. Congressman Bill Posey (R-FL) introduced legislation requiring future Presidential candidates to produce a birth certificate in order to be eligible to run in future White House races.

Rest of the quote below the fold.

Do we have anyone to deal with this first-term crackpot standing in an R+5-ish central Florida district?  Posey won his first race with 53.1% against Stephen Blythe, who took 42%.

The rest of the paragraph from Politics1:

Conservative conspiracy theorists have accused President Obama of being foreign-born and constitutionally ineligible. Obama last year produced a certified copy of his birth certificate from the Hawaii Department of Health, but critics argued that it was a fake or possibly altered. Hawaii officials confirmed the original document is in state records. The US Supreme Court has already rejected several lawsuits challenging the President’s citizenship. “Congressman Posey should be focused on creating jobs and jump-starting the economy, but it seems he’s only obsessed with pandering to the right wing,” said Florida Democratic Chair Karen Thurman. “I think we are going to take the president at his word for it, just like we take every other candidate’s word for it,” replied Posey’s spokesman.

PS: Am I getting a hang of making good titles?

http://www.courant.com/news/po…

Titles says it all really. SImmons is officially in. If I was Sen. Dodd, I would consider retirement and let A.G. Richard Blumenthal or Rep. Chris Murphy have a crack at it.

Tough break for team blue. Still, if defense is only Connecticut and Deleware if Castle enters (Nevada GOP has no bench and the best of the Colorado GOP has passed) this still looks like a decent cycle for us. Dem +3 would be enough to let us run roughshod with our agenda for two years.