Month: March 2009

The University of Texas (2/24-3/6, GOP primary voters):

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 36

Rick Perry (R-inc): 30

Other: 11

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±5.8%)

With a rather portly MoE and an extended polling period, take this one with as many grains of salt as you wish. The last time we dipped our toes into the Lone Star state, Public Policy Polling released a survey in February showing Hutchison creaming Perry by a 56-31 margin; Team Perry must be relatively ecstatic to be seeing numbers like these instead. Burnt Orange Report‘s Phillip Martin offers his take:

While I still contend that polls are more or less meaningless at this stage of the game — as evidenced by 25% undecided — this should push back on the (worthless) conventional wisdom that Rick Perry is somehow out of this race. I still think Perry will win in the primary — he has a presence in the state, he is more connected with the hardcore base voters that will absolutely turn out to vote, and he’s a cyborg that never sleeps so he’ll be able to campaign 3-4 times more than Hutchison.

The UT poll also includes twelve head-to-head match-ups for Hutchison’s senate seat (assuming a vacancy occurs). Since front page real estate on SSP is a hot commodity, I won’t post the full list here, but the results are pretty predictable — Republicans lead most of the hypothetical match-ups by small margins, with huge chunks of undecided voters. In other words: it’s really too early to make sense of a largely undefined field. To see the full numbers for yourselves, click here.

Oh, and speaking of this race’s lack of definition… unnamed sources are telling Roll Call that Hutchison is likely to remain in the Senate while she wages a primary campaign against Perry. (Discussion of this point is already well underway in DTM,B!’s diary.) So, if Perry survives net year, we may not have an open seat Senate race to discuss here at all… unless KBH decides to throw in the towel in 2012, which I suppose isn’t out of the question.

This is almost to surreal for mere words…

http://www.poststar.com/blogs/…

Republican and Conservative congressional candidate turned down an invitation to participate in the WMHT/Times Union debate on Thursday because he already had his own multi-media event planned, said Adam Kramer, a spokesman.

Tedisco will conduct a “Jim Tedisco in 3-D” campaign forum at 7 p.m. Thursday at his campaign headquarters in Halfmoon, Kramer said.

People will be able to participate in three different ways: in person, via telephone conference call or via the Internet, he said.

Democratic, Independence and Working Families candidate Scott Murphy and Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall, the same evening, will participate the WMHT/Times Union debate to be televised live on WMHT, WSKG and Mountain Lakes PBS public television stations.

Kramer said the Tedisco and Murphy campaigns had previously agreed to participate in four debates, that did not include the WMHT/Times Union event.

Tedisco had already planned his own event on Thursday when he was invited to the fifth debate, Kramer said.

Kramer called back to emphasize that there are still two other debates prior to the March 31 special election: one on March 24 to be broadcast on WNYT- News Channel 13 and another on March 26 to be broadcast on Time Warner Capital News 9.

There were only three debates for the 2008 presidential campaign, which was spread out over a longer time period than the 20th Congressional District special election race, Kramer said.

We all know that Connecticut has become an unexpected early battleground in the 2010 cycle, and Republicans are touting Simmons as a strong challenger to the vulnerable Chris Dodd.  

The longtime Senator has had a lot of problems over the past few months, from his seat on Banking to the mortgage controversy. But it now looks like he is at risk of being hit further by AIG. And this is happening very unfairly: people who are actually to blame – especially Timothy Geithner – is unfairly throwing the blame on Dodd!

The controversy stems from a new NYT article:

The administration official said the Treasury Department did its own legal analysis and concluded that those contracts could not be broken. The official noted that even a provision recently pushed through Congress by Senator Christopher J. Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, had an exemption for such bonus agreements already in place.

Campaign Diaries explains why this is outrageous:

In February, Chris Dodd had introduced an amendment to the stimulus bill that would have imposed retroactive bonus caps on companies receiving bailout money – meaning that bonuses agreed to before February 11th would also fall under the legislation’s scope. As numerous news stories attest to, Geithner and Larry Summers both called Dodd, urging him to drop retroactivity. Dodd nonetheless pushed through the amendment (SA 354 to H.R.1) but it was then thrown out during the conference committee. (Jane Hamsher provides a clear and detailed documentation of this sequence of events.) …

[Now, in that NYT story,] a Treasury official is telling the media that there is no way to stop the AIG bonuses because the stimulus bill does not make restrictions radioactive. The official claims that Dodd is responsible for the provision’s ineffectiveness, but, as I explained above, it is Dodd who was trying to introduce radioactivity in the bill and the Treasury (via Geithner) who beat back his efforts to do so! In short: Geithner is deflecting his responsibility on one of the most endangered Democratic Senators of the 2010 cycle.

I know there is a lot of disagreement as to whether Dodd is actually vulnerable, whether Simmons could possibly beat him, but we can’t deny that the Senator’s numbers are truly dismal and that this is the sort of scandal that can drive him further down a hole – especially in the current context.

We’re seeing people like Paterson or Corzine lose their popularity and become VERY endangered in 2009/2010 because of the fiscal crisis. Senators are generally more protected, but Dodd is definitely on the front lines since he is the Chairman of the Banking Committee. For Treasury to (unfairly) throw the blame on a vulnerable Democratic Senator could definitely be a tremendous help for the GOP and it could lead to a whole cycle of anti-Dodd stories in Connecticut, so Treasury’s actions are really incomprehensible to me.

Do you think Dodd will be able to deflect the blame on this one? Or will it feed the growing anti-Dodd frenzy?

Quinnipiac (3/10-3/15, registered voters, 1/29-2/2 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 41 (42)

Rob Portman (R): 33 (27)

Lee Fisher (D): 41 (41)

Mary Taylor (R): 31 (27)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 39 (38)

Rob Portman (R): 34 (28)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38 (38)

Mary Taylor (R): 31 (26)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 51 (56)

John Kasich (R): 31 (26)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 50 (54)

Mike DeWine (R): 34 (32)

(MoE: ±2.7%)

John Kasich (R): 27 (22)

Mike DeWine (R): 32 (37)

Kevin Coughlin: 2 (3)

Rob Portman (R): 31 (33)

Mary Taylor (R): 14 (11)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

Lee Fisher (D): 18 (18)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 14 (16)

Tim Ryan (D): 12 (14)

Tyrone Yates (D): 6 (n/a)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Quinnipiac polls both the 2010 senate and gubernatorial races in Ohio in one sample (the gubernatorial race got a separate release, though); Democrats have to be fairly pleased with the results in each. There’s been some erosion in their positions since early February, but every permutation currently points to a Dem victory.

In the senate race, both Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and SoS Jennifer Brunner are basically holding steady; the gains have mostly come from a few points worth of undecideds moving to the Republicans. Brunner/Portman is the only configuration that’s polling within the margin of error. Despite the conventional wisdom that recruiting ex-Rep. Rob Portman was some sort of GOP coup, he remains largely unknown, with 67% of the sample not knowing enough about him to form an opinion. (Of course, that also means that he has a lot of room to grow, if Dems don’t quickly define him and his Bush administration links.)

The Democratic primary is also largely undefined at this point, with 46% still undecided, plus another 12% for Rep. Tim Ryan, who has announced that he won’t run and has endorsed Fisher. The entry of Cincinnati-based African-American state rep. Tyrone Yates into the race doesn’t seem to have produced any major changes.

On the gubernatorial side, while Ted Strickland’s approvals and head-to-heads have dropped a bit (56/30, down from 63/25 in early February), he’s still in positive territory, which differentiates him from, well, just about every other governor as the economic climate forces them to contemplate draconian cuts and/or tax hikes. (Voters now disapprove of his handling of the state economy 39/45, the first time he’s been negative on that measure.) With ex-Sen. Mike DeWine reportedly becoming more interested in running for state attorney general, Strickland may be left facing the seemingly weaker ex-Rep. John Kasich.

I previously posted new Cook PVIs for all congressional districts.  As many noted, the numbers seem screwy.  This is a function of the formula Cook uses to calculate PVI.

Currently, Cook uses this formula for calculating PVI:

Cook PVI = ((Gore’s 2000 two-party vote share in congressional district – Kerry’s 2004 two-party vote share nationally) + (Kerry’s 2004 two-party vote share in congressional district – Kerry’s 2004 two-party vote share nationally))/2.  Positive numbers are Democratic PVIs and negative numbers are Republican PVIs.

The entire problem with the Cook PVI is that it compares 2000 state results with 2004 national results.  The USA as a whole should have a PVI of 0.0.  But, by comparing 2000 state results with 2004 national results (apples to oranges) it screws things up and, in fact, the USA as a whole had a PVI of R+0.8 for 2005-2008.  Using this same formula to calculate new PVIs after 2008 elections results in the USA as a whole having a PVI of D+2.5.  This is totally screwy and defeats the purpose of the Cook PVI which is to show how much a congressional district is more democratic or republican than the nation as a whole.

The formula fix to correct this problem is simple:

PVI = (Kerry’s 2004 two-party vote share in particular congressional district – Kerry’s 2004 two-party vote share nationally) + (Obama’s 2008 two-party vote share in congressional district – Obama’s 2008 two-party vote share nationally)/2.  Positive numbers are Democratic PVIs and negative numbers are Republican PVIs.  Using this formula to calculate PVI, results in the USA as a whole having a PVI of 0.  So, the numbers for each congressional district truly show how much more Democratic or Republican leaning the district is versus the nation as a whole, unlike the current Cook PVI numbers.

Past discussion of the Cook PVI, problems with it, and how to fix it are here, here, and here.

Using this formula and based on Swing State’s Compilation of presidential results for all 435 Congressional Districts, I have calculated “Swing State” PVIs for each congressional district, for both before the 2008 Presidential Election and afterwards:

State	CD	Member	Party	Old SPVI	New SPVI	Change
AK	AL	Young	(R)	R+ 14.9	R+ 13.1	D+ 1.8
AL	1	Bonner	(R)	R+ 12.4	R+ 14.0	R+ 1.6
AL	2	Bright	(D)	R+ 13.8	R+ 16.5	R+ 2.7
AL	3	Rogers	(R)	R+ 5.1	R+ 8.8	R+ 3.7
AL	4	Aderholt	(R)	R+ 16.5	R+ 25.5	R+ 9.0
AL	5	Griffith	(D)	R+ 7.4	R+ 12.3	R+ 5.0
AL	6	Bachus	(R)	R+ 25.9	R+ 28.6	R+ 2.7
AL	7	Davis	(D)	D+ 16.1	D+ 17.5	D+ 1.3
AR	1	Berry	(D)	R+ 0.3	R+ 7.9	R+ 7.6
AR	2	Snyder	(D)	R+ 0.5	R+ 4.5	R+ 4.0
AR	3	Boozman	(R)	R+ 12.1	R+ 15.5	R+ 3.4
AR	4	Ross	(D)	R+ 0.0	R+ 6.9	R+ 6.9
AZ	1	Kirkpatrick	(D)	R+ 2.8	R+ 5.8	R+ 3.0
AZ	2	Franks	(R)	R+ 9.4	R+ 12.8	R+ 3.4
AZ	3	Shadegg	(R)	R+ 6.9	R+ 9.3	R+ 2.4
AZ	4	Pastor	(D)	D+ 13.6	D+ 13.1	R+ 0.5
AZ	5	Mitchell	(D)	R+ 4.6	R+ 4.8	R+ 0.1
AZ	6	Flake	(R)	R+ 13.0	R+ 14.4	R+ 1.4
AZ	7	Grijalva	(D)	D+ 9.2	D+ 6.1	R+ 3.1
AZ	8	Giffords	(D)	R+ 2.3	R+ 4.5	R+ 2.2
CA	1	Thompson	(D)	D+ 9.7	D+ 13.1	D+ 3.4
CA	2	Herger	(R)	R+ 13.3	R+ 10.6	D+ 2.7
CA	3	Lungren	(R)	R+ 7.5	R+ 5.5	D+ 1.9
CA	4	McClintock	(R)	R+ 11.7	R+ 9.9	D+ 1.8
CA	5	Matsui	(D)	D+ 12.9	D+ 15.3	D+ 2.4
CA	6	Woolsey	(D)	D+ 19.9	D+ 23.3	D+ 3.4
CA	7	Miller	(D)	D+ 18.3	D+ 19.2	D+ 0.9
CA	8	Pelosi	(D)	D+ 35.3	D+ 35.5	D+ 0.3
CA	9	Lee	(D)	D+ 36.9	D+ 37.1	D+ 0.3
CA	10	Tauscher	(D)	D+ 8.9	D+ 11.7	D+ 2.8
CA	11	McNerney	(D)	R+ 3.8	R+ 1.2	D+ 2.6
CA	12	Speier	(D)	D+ 21.7	D+ 22.9	D+ 1.2
CA	13	Stark	(D)	D+ 20.9	D+ 22.4	D+ 1.5
CA	14	Eshoo	(D)	D+ 17.5	D+ 20.7	D+ 3.2
CA	15	Honda	(D)	D+ 13.6	D+ 15.3	D+ 1.7
CA	16	Lofgren	(D)	D+ 15.3	D+ 16.0	D+ 0.7
CA	17	Farr	(D)	D+ 16.1	D+ 18.8	D+ 2.8
CA	18	Cardoza	(D)	D+ 2.6	D+ 3.6	D+ 1.1
CA	19	Radanovich	(R)	R+ 10.2	R+ 8.6	D+ 1.7
CA	20	Costa	(D)	D+ 4.0	D+ 4.8	D+ 0.8
CA	21	Nunes	(R)	R+ 13.5	R+ 12.6	D+ 0.8
CA	22	McCarthy	(R)	R+ 16.8	R+ 16.2	D+ 0.7
CA	23	Capps	(D)	D+ 8.8	D+ 11.9	D+ 3.1
CA	24	Gallegly	(R)	R+ 5.6	R+ 3.7	D+ 1.9
CA	25	McKeon	(R)	R+ 7.9	R+ 5.5	D+ 2.4
CA	26	Dreier	(R)	R+ 4.6	R+ 3.0	D+ 1.6
CA	27	Sherman	(D)	D+ 11.8	D+ 12.6	D+ 0.7
CA	28	Berman	(D)	D+ 24.0	D+ 23.4	R+ 0.6
CA	29	Schiff	(D)	D+ 11.8	D+ 14.6	D+ 2.8
CA	30	Waxman	(D)	D+ 19.2	D+ 17.8	R+ 1.4
CA	31	Becerra	(D)	D+ 29.5	D+ 28.5	R+ 1.0
CA	32		(D)	D+ 16.0	D+ 14.8	R+ 1.2
CA	33	Watson	(D)	D+ 35.2	D+ 34.6	R+ 0.6
CA	34	Roybal-Allard	(D)	D+ 22.1	D+ 21.9	R+ 0.2
CA	35	Waters	(D)	D+ 31.8	D+ 31.5	R+ 0.3
CA	36	Harman	(D)	D+ 10.0	D+ 11.2	D+ 1.3
CA	37	Richardson	(D)	D+ 26.6	D+ 26.6	R+ 0.1
CA	38	Napolitano	(D)	D+ 19.0	D+ 17.8	R+ 1.2
CA	39	Sanchez	(D)	D+ 11.9	D+ 12.3	D+ 0.3
CA	40	Royce	(R)	R+ 8.7	R+ 7.5	D+ 1.1
CA	41	Lewis	(R)	R+ 9.7	R+ 10.1	R+ 0.4
CA	42	Miller	(R)	R+ 10.9	R+ 9.6	D+ 1.4
CA	43	Baca	(D)	D+ 12.4	D+ 12.8	D+ 0.3
CA	44	Calvert	(R)	R+ 6.6	R+ 5.8	D+ 0.9
CA	45	Bono	(R)	R+ 3.8	R+ 3.2	D+ 0.6
CA	46	Rohrabacher	(R)	R+ 6.6	R+ 5.5	D+ 1.1
CA	47	Sanchez	(D)	D+ 3.8	D+ 4.1	D+ 0.3
CA	48	Campbell	(R)	R+ 8.7	R+ 5.8	D+ 2.9
CA	49	Issa	(R)	R+ 11.4	R+ 10.1	D+ 1.4
CA	50	Bilbray	(R)	R+ 5.1	R+ 3.0	D+ 2.1
CA	51	Filner	(D)	D+ 6.3	D+ 7.4	D+ 1.0
CA	52	Hunter	(R)	R+ 9.7	R+ 9.1	D+ 0.6
CA	53	Davis	(D)	D+ 11.5	D+ 14.3	D+ 2.8
CO	1	DeGette	(D)	D+ 17.3	D+ 20.9	D+ 3.6
CO	2	Udall	(D)	D+ 7.2	D+ 10.7	D+ 3.6
CO	3	Salazar	(D)	R+ 6.3	R+ 4.8	D+ 1.6
CO	4	Markey	(D)	R+ 9.1	R+ 5.8	D+ 3.4
CO	5	Lamborn	(R)	R+ 16.4	R+ 14.4	D+ 2.0
CO	6	Coffman	(R)	R+ 10.7	R+ 8.3	D+ 2.5
CO	7	Perlmutter	(D)	D+ 1.5	D+ 4.3	D+ 2.8
CT	1	Larson	(D)	D+ 13.4	D+ 12.4	R+ 1.0
CT	2	Courtney	(D)	D+ 6.8	D+ 6.1	R+ 0.6
CT	3	DeLauro	(D)	D+ 11.0	D+ 9.2	R+ 1.8
CT	4	Himes	(D)	D+ 4.6	D+ 5.3	D+ 0.7
CT	5	Murphy	(D)	D+ 2.9	D+ 2.4	R+ 0.5
DE	AL	Castle	(R)	D+ 5.6	D+ 6.9	D+ 1.3
FL	1	Miller	(R)	R+ 20.0	R+ 21.1	R+ 1.0
FL	2	Boyd	(D)	R+ 3.0	R+ 5.5	R+ 2.5
FL	3	Brown	(D)	D+ 15.5	D+ 18.1	D+ 2.7
FL	4	Crenshaw	(R)	R+ 17.0	R+ 16.5	D+ 0.5
FL	5	Brown-Waite	(R)	R+ 5.8	R+ 8.8	R+ 3.0
FL	6	Stearns	(R)	R+ 9.0	R+ 10.0	R+ 1.0
FL	7	Mica	(R)	R+ 5.0	R+ 6.5	R+ 1.5
FL	8	Grayson	(D)	R+ 4.0	R+ 2.2	D+ 1.8
FL	9	Bilirakis	(R)	R+ 5.0	R+ 6.0	R+ 1.0
FL	10	Young	(R)	D+ 0.5	R+ 0.7	R+ 1.2
FL	11	Castor	(D)	D+ 10.3	D+ 11.4	D+ 1.1
FL	12	Putnam	(R)	R+ 6.0	R+ 5.5	D+ 0.5
FL	13	Buchanan	(R)	R+ 4.7	R+ 5.5	R+ 0.7
FL	14	Mack	(R)	R+ 11.0	R+ 11.0	D+ 0.0
FL	15	Posey	(R)	R+ 5.0	R+ 5.5	R+ 0.5
FL	16	Rooney	(R)	R+ 3.0	R+ 4.5	R+ 1.5
FL	17	Meek	(D)	D+ 34.5	D+ 34.2	R+ 0.3
FL	18	Ros-Lehtinen	(R)	R+ 5.0	R+ 2.7	D+ 2.3
FL	19	Wexler	(D)	D+ 20.0	D+ 14.6	R+ 5.4
FL	20	Wasserman-Schultz	(D)	D+ 17.0	D+ 12.6	R+ 4.4
FL	21	Diaz-Balart	(R)	R+ 7.0	R+ 5.2	D+ 1.8
FL	22	Klein	(D)	D+ 2.5	D+ 0.8	R+ 1.7
FL	23	Hastings	(D)	D+ 28.5	D+ 28.3	R+ 0.2
FL	24	Kosmas	(D)	R+ 3.5	R+ 4.2	R+ 0.7
FL	25	Diaz-Balart	(R)	R+ 5.0	R+ 4.5	D+ 0.5
GA	1	Kingston	(R)	R+ 13.5	R+ 16.0	R+ 2.5
GA	2	Bishop	(D)	D+ 1.5	D+ 0.8	R+ 0.7
GA	3	Westmoreland	(R)	R+ 18.4	R+ 18.9	R+ 0.5
GA	4	Johnson	(D)	D+ 21.3	D+ 24.1	D+ 2.8
GA	5	Lewis	(D)	D+ 24.0	D+ 25.7	D+ 1.7
GA	6	Price	(R)	R+ 18.9	R+ 17.9	D+ 1.0
GA	7	Linder	(R)	R+ 19.0	R+ 16.5	D+ 2.5
GA	8	Marshall	(D)	R+ 9.0	R+ 10.0	R+ 1.0
GA	9	Deal	(R)	R+ 23.5	R+ 27.6	R+ 4.1
GA	10	Broun	(R)	R+ 13.5	R+ 14.5	R+ 1.0
GA	11	Gingrey	(R)	R+ 17.7	R+ 20.1	R+ 2.4
GA	12	Barrow	(D)	D+ 1.2	D+ 0.8	R+ 0.4
GA	13	Scott	(D)	D+ 9.0	D+ 14.6	D+ 5.7
HI	1	Abercrombie	(D)	D+ 6.2	D+ 11.0	D+ 4.8
HI	2	Hirono	(D)	D+ 8.9	D+ 14.0	D+ 5.1
IA	1	Braley	(D)	D+ 4.1	D+ 4.8	D+ 0.8
IA	2	Loebsack	(D)	D+ 5.9	D+ 7.2	D+ 1.3
IA	3	Boswell	(D)	D+ 0.7	D+ 1.3	D+ 0.6
IA	4	Latham	(R)	R+ 0.5	D+ 0.1	D+ 0.6
IA	5	King	(R)	R+ 9.2	R+ 9.1	D+ 0.1
ID	1	Minnick	(D)	R+ 19.8	R+ 17.7	D+ 2.1
ID	2	Simpson	(R)	R+ 19.6	R+ 17.5	D+ 2.1
IL	1	Rush	(D)	D+ 34.0	D+ 33.8	R+ 0.2
IL	2	Jackson	(D)	D+ 34.0	D+ 35.8	D+ 1.8
IL	3	Lipinski	(D)	D+ 9.6	D+ 10.6	D+ 1.0
IL	4	Gutierrez	(D)	D+ 29.9	D+ 31.6	D+ 1.8
IL	5		(D)	D+ 17.0	D+ 19.1	D+ 2.2
IL	6	Roskam	(R)	R+ 3.3	D+ 0.6	D+ 3.9
IL	7	Davis	(D)	D+ 33.9	D+ 34.3	D+ 0.4
IL	8	Bean	(D)	R+ 6.1	R+ 0.9	D+ 5.1
IL	9	Schakowsky	(D)	D+ 18.7	D+ 19.5	D+ 0.8
IL	10	Kirk	(R)	D+ 3.0	D+ 6.1	D+ 3.1
IL	11	Halvorson	(D)	R+ 1.8	R+ 0.9	D+ 0.8
IL	12	Costello	(D)	D+ 4.3	D+ 2.3	R+ 2.0
IL	13	Biggert	(R)	R+ 5.4	R+ 1.4	D+ 3.9
IL	14	Foster	(D)	R+ 5.1	R+ 1.2	D+ 3.9
IL	15	Johnson	(R)	R+ 6.8	R+ 6.2	D+ 0.6
IL	16	Manzullo	(R)	R+ 5.1	R+ 2.0	D+ 3.2
IL	17	Hare	(D)	D+ 3.8	D+ 3.1	R+ 0.7
IL	18	Schock	(R)	R+ 6.1	R+ 5.7	D+ 0.3
IL	19	Shimkus	(R)	R+ 8.9	R+ 9.3	R+ 0.4
IN	1	Visclosky	(D)	D+ 6.8	D+ 7.9	D+ 1.0
IN	2	Donnelly	(D)	R+ 4.8	R+ 2.2	D+ 2.6
IN	3	Souder	(R)	R+ 17.2	R+ 13.8	D+ 3.3
IN	4	Buyer	(R)	R+ 18.0	R+ 14.4	D+ 3.7
IN	5	Burton	(R)	R+ 20.2	R+ 16.9	D+ 3.3
IN	6	Pence	(R)	R+ 11.6	R+ 10.3	D+ 1.3
IN	7	Carson	(D)	D+ 7.8	D+ 13.6	D+ 5.9
IN	8	Ellsworth	(D)	R+ 9.3	R+ 8.2	D+ 1.1
IN	9	Hill	(D)	R+ 7.9	R+ 6.3	D+ 1.6
KS	1	Moran	(R)	R+ 21.1	R+ 22.8	R+ 1.7
KS	2	Jenkins	(R)	R+ 8.0	R+ 9.4	R+ 1.3
KS	3	Moore	(D)	R+ 5.2	R+ 3.2	D+ 1.9
KS	4	Tiahrt	(R)	R+ 12.9	R+ 13.5	R+ 0.6
KY	1	Whitfield	(R)	R+ 10.9	R+ 14.4	R+ 3.4
KY	2	Guthrie	(R)	R+ 13.7	R+ 14.9	R+ 1.2
KY	3	Yarmuth	(D)	D+ 1.5	D+ 2.6	D+ 1.1
KY	4	Davis	(R)	R+ 12.5	R+ 13.6	R+ 1.2
KY	5	Rogers	(R)	R+ 8.8	R+ 15.9	R+ 7.1
KY	6	Chandler	(D)	R+ 7.4	R+ 8.6	R+ 1.2
LA	1	Scalise	(R)	R+ 19.6	R+ 23.9	R+ 4.4
LA	2	Cao	(R)	D+ 27.1	D+ 24.0	R+ 3.1
LA	3	Melancon	(D)	R+ 5.6	R+ 11.6	R+ 6.0
LA	4	Fleming	(R)	R+ 7.4	R+ 10.8	R+ 3.4
LA	5	Alexander	(R)	R+ 10.2	R+ 13.8	R+ 3.6
LA	6	Cassidy	(R)	R+ 7.4	R+ 10.1	R+ 2.7
LA	7	Boustany	(R)	R+ 8.2	R+ 13.7	R+ 5.5
MA	1	Olver	(D)	D+ 14.1	D+ 13.6	R+ 0.5
MA	2	Neal	(D)	D+ 11.5	D+ 8.7	R+ 2.8
MA	3	McGovern	(D)	D+ 11.7	D+ 8.7	R+ 3.0
MA	4	Frank	(D)	D+ 18.2	D+ 14.3	R+ 4.0
MA	5	Tsongas	(D)	D+ 10.2	D+ 8.0	R+ 2.3
MA	6	Tierney	(D)	D+ 10.4	D+ 7.4	R+ 3.1
MA	7	Markey	(D)	D+ 18.2	D+ 15.3	R+ 3.0
MA	8	Capuano	(D)	D+ 32.3	D+ 32.1	R+ 0.2
MA	9	Lynch	(D)	D+ 14.6	D+ 10.9	R+ 3.7
MA	10	Delahunt	(D)	D+ 7.8	D+ 4.8	R+ 3.0
MD	1	Kratovil	(D)	R+ 10.5	R+ 12.4	R+ 1.9
MD	2	Ruppersberger	(D)	D+ 6.8	D+ 6.7	R+ 0.2
MD	3	Sarbanes	(D)	D+ 6.4	D+ 6.2	R+ 0.3
MD	4	Edwards	(D)	D+ 29.2	D+ 31.1	D+ 1.9
MD	5	Hoyer	(D)	D+ 8.4	D+ 10.7	D+ 2.4
MD	6	Bartlett	(R)	R+ 13.8	R+ 13.6	D+ 0.1
MD	7	Cummings	(D)	D+ 24.6	D+ 25.5	D+ 0.9
MD	8	Van Hollen	(D)	D+ 19.4	D+ 21.0	D+ 1.6
ME	1	Pingree	(D)	D+ 5.4	D+ 7.7	D+ 2.2
ME	2	Michaud	(D)	D+ 2.8	D+ 3.4	D+ 0.5
MI	1	Stupak	(D)	R+ 3.1	R+ 2.5	D+ 0.6
MI	2	Hoekstra	(R)	R+ 10.2	R+ 7.3	D+ 2.9
MI	3	Ehlers	(R)	R+ 9.9	R+ 6.0	D+ 3.9
MI	4	Camp	(R)	R+ 4.8	R+ 3.5	D+ 1.4
MI	5	Kildee	(D)	D+ 11.1	D+ 10.6	R+ 0.5
MI	6	Upton	(R)	R+ 3.1	R+ 0.7	D+ 2.4
MI	7	Schauer	(D)	R+ 3.1	R+ 2.0	D+ 1.1
MI	8	Rogers	(R)	R+ 2.8	R+ 1.7	D+ 1.1
MI	9	Peters	(D)	R+ 1.0	D+ 1.6	D+ 2.6
MI	10	Miller	(R)	R+ 5.1	R+ 5.2	R+ 0.2
MI	11	McCotter	(R)	R+ 2.0	R+ 0.4	D+ 1.6
MI	12	Levin	(D)	D+ 12.1	D+ 12.4	D+ 0.3
MI	13	Kilpatrick	(D)	D+ 31.4	D+ 31.8	D+ 0.4
MI	14	Conyers	(D)	D+ 32.9	D+ 33.3	D+ 0.4
MI	15	Dingell	(D)	D+ 12.1	D+ 13.1	D+ 1.0
MN	1	Walz	(D)	R+ 1.6	R+ 1.2	D+ 0.4
MN	2	Kline	(R)	R+ 3.6	R+ 4.0	R+ 0.4
MN	3	Paulsen	(R)	R+ 1.3	R+ 0.4	D+ 0.9
MN	4	McCollum	(D)	D+ 12.1	D+ 12.7	D+ 0.6
MN	5	Ellison	(D)	D+ 20.6	D+ 22.4	D+ 1.8
MN	6	Bachmann	(R)	R+ 6.0	R+ 7.0	R+ 1.1
MN	7	Peterson	(D)	R+ 6.3	R+ 5.1	D+ 1.2
MN	8	Oberstar	(D)	D+ 3.6	D+ 2.6	R+ 1.0
MO	1	Clay	(D)	D+ 24.7	D+ 26.7	D+ 2.0
MO	2	Akin	(R)	R+ 9.6	R+ 9.0	D+ 0.6
MO	3	Carnahan	(D)	D+ 6.8	D+ 7.6	D+ 0.8
MO	4	Skelton	(D)	R+ 11.4	R+ 14.4	R+ 2.9
MO	5	Cleaver	(D)	D+ 11.2	D+ 10.9	R+ 0.3
MO	6	Graves	(R)	R+ 5.6	R+ 7.3	R+ 1.7
MO	7	Blunt	(R)	R+ 15.0	R+ 17.2	R+ 2.2
MO	8	Emerson	(R)	R+ 11.6	R+ 14.9	R+ 3.2
MO	9	Luetkemeyer	(R)	R+ 7.4	R+ 8.5	R+ 1.1
MS	1	Childers	(D)	R+ 10.6	R+ 13.5	R+ 2.9
MS	2	Thompson	(D)	D+ 9.4	D+ 11.6	D+ 2.2
MS	3	Harper	(R)	R+ 14.7	R+ 15.0	R+ 0.4
MS	4	Taylor	(D)	R+ 17.0	R+ 19.6	R+ 2.5
MT	AL	Rehberg	(R)	R+ 11.5	R+ 6.8	D+ 4.6
NC	1	Butterfield	(D)	D+ 8.1	D+ 8.9	D+ 0.8
NC	2	Etheridge	(D)	R+ 3.3	R+ 2.0	D+ 1.3
NC	3	Jones	(R)	R+ 15.8	R+ 16.0	R+ 0.2
NC	4	Price	(D)	D+ 5.0	D+ 8.4	D+ 3.3
NC	5	Foxx	(R)	R+ 16.2	R+ 15.4	D+ 0.8
NC	6	Coble	(R)	R+ 18.2	R+ 17.9	D+ 0.3
NC	7	McIntyre	(D)	R+ 3.5	R+ 5.5	R+ 2.0
NC	8	Kissell	(D)	R+ 3.8	R+ 2.0	D+ 1.8
NC	9	Myrick	(R)	R+ 13.1	R+ 10.5	D+ 2.6
NC	10	McHenry	(R)	R+ 15.8	R+ 16.5	R+ 0.7
NC	11	Shuler	(D)	R+ 7.6	R+ 6.0	D+ 1.6
NC	12	Watt	(D)	D+ 10.8	D+ 15.6	D+ 4.9
NC	13	Miller	(D)	D+ 1.5	D+ 4.8	D+ 3.3
ND	AL	Pomeroy	(D)	R+ 13.8	R+ 10.1	D+ 3.7
NE	1	Fortenberry	(R)	R+ 12.4	R+ 10.6	D+ 1.8
NE	2	Terry	(R)	R+ 9.8	R+ 6.6	D+ 3.2
NE	3	Smith	(R)	R+ 24.4	R+ 23.9	D+ 0.4
NH	1	Shea-Porter	(D)	R+ 1.1	R+ 0.5	D+ 0.6
NH	2	Hodes	(D)	D+ 2.0	D+ 3.3	D+ 1.3
NJ	1	Andrews	(D)	D+ 13.5	D+ 12.1	R+ 1.4
NJ	2	Lobiondo	(R)	D+ 3.1	D+ 0.8	R+ 2.3
NJ	3	Adler	(D)	D+ 2.8	R+ 0.5	R+ 3.3
NJ	4	Smith	(R)	R+ 1.5	R+ 5.5	R+ 4.0
NJ	5	Garrett	(R)	R+ 4.8	R+ 7.0	R+ 2.2
NJ	6	Pallone	(D)	D+ 10.8	D+ 7.6	R+ 3.2
NJ	7	Lance	(R)	R+ 1.3	R+ 2.0	R+ 0.7
NJ	8	Pascrell	(D)	D+ 10.9	D+ 10.1	R+ 0.8
NJ	9	Rothman	(D)	D+ 12.5	D+ 9.1	R+ 3.4
NJ	10	Payne	(D)	D+ 33.4	D+ 33.3	R+ 0.1
NJ	11	Frelinghuysen	(R)	R+ 6.3	R+ 7.5	R+ 1.1
NJ	12	Holt	(D)	D+ 6.7	D+ 5.1	R+ 1.6
NJ	13	Sires	(D)	D+ 22.1	D+ 21.2	R+ 0.9
NM	1	Heinrich	(D)	D+ 1.5	D+ 4.5	D+ 3.0
NM	2	Teague	(D)	R+ 6.6	R+ 5.8	D+ 0.9
NM	3	Lujan	(D)	D+ 5.1	D+ 6.9	D+ 1.7
NV	1	Berkley	(D)	D+ 8.1	D+ 10.2	D+ 2.1
NV	2	Heller	(R)	R+ 8.9	R+ 5.3	D+ 3.6
NV	3	Titus	(D)	D+ 0.5	D+ 1.6	D+ 1.1
NY	1	Bishop	(D)	D+ 2.6	R+ 0.2	R+ 2.8
NY	2	Israel	(D)	D+ 7.2	D+ 4.1	R+ 3.1
NY	3	King	(R)	D+ 1.3	R+ 3.7	R+ 5.1
NY	4	McCarthy	(D)	D+ 8.7	D+ 5.9	R+ 2.8
NY	5	Ackerman	(D)	D+ 16.8	D+ 12.4	R+ 4.4
NY	6	Meeks	(D)	D+ 37.3	D+ 35.7	R+ 1.6
NY	7	Crowley	(D)	D+ 26.9	D+ 26.1	R+ 0.9
NY	8	Nadler	(D)	D+ 27.1	D+ 22.1	R+ 4.9
NY	9	Weiner	(D)	D+ 13.0	D+ 4.6	R+ 8.5
NY	10	Towns	(D)	D+ 39.8	D+ 37.7	R+ 2.0
NY	11	Clarke	(D)	D+ 39.0	D+ 37.7	R+ 1.3
NY	12	Velazquez	(D)	D+ 32.7	D+ 32.6	R+ 0.1
NY	13	McMahon	(D)	D+ 0.1	R+ 4.2	R+ 4.3
NY	14	Maloney	(D)	D+ 25.5	D+ 25.5	D+ 0.1
NY	15	Rangel	(D)	D+ 42.2	D+ 41.2	R+ 1.0
NY	16	Serrano	(D)	D+ 42.9	D+ 41.2	R+ 1.6
NY	17	Engel	(D)	D+ 19.9	D+ 18.3	R+ 1.6
NY	18	Lowey	(D)	D+ 9.4	D+ 8.8	R+ 0.6
NY	19	Hall	(D)	R+ 2.3	R+ 2.7	R+ 0.4
NY	20		(D)	R+ 3.4	R+ 2.5	D+ 0.9
NY	21	Tonko	(D)	D+ 8.0	D+ 6.4	R+ 1.6
NY	22	Hinchey	(D)	D+ 5.2	D+ 6.2	D+ 1.0
NY	23	McHugh	(R)	R+ 1.1	R+ 1.0	D+ 0.1
NY	24	Arcuri	(D)	R+ 1.3	R+ 2.0	R+ 0.7
NY	25	Maffei	(D)	D+ 2.6	D+ 2.6	D+ 0.0
NY	26	Lee	(R)	R+ 4.4	R+ 5.8	R+ 1.4
NY	27	Higgins	(D)	D+ 5.7	D+ 3.4	R+ 2.3
NY	28	Slaughter	(D)	D+ 13.9	D+ 15.4	D+ 1.6
NY	29	Massa	(D)	R+ 5.7	R+ 5.5	D+ 0.1
OH	1	Driehaus	(D)	R+ 1.3	D+ 1.1	D+ 2.4
OH	2	Schmidt	(R)	R+ 14.0	R+ 13.0	D+ 1.0
OH	3	Turner	(R)	R+ 3.3	R+ 4.2	R+ 0.9
OH	4	Jordan	(R)	R+ 14.3	R+ 14.7	R+ 0.4
OH	5	Latta	(R)	R+ 10.7	R+ 8.8	D+ 2.0
OH	6	Wilson	(D)	R+ 0.5	R+ 2.2	R+ 1.7
OH	7	Austria	(R)	R+ 6.6	R+ 7.0	R+ 0.4
OH	8	Boehner	(R)	R+ 13.3	R+ 14.2	R+ 0.9
OH	9	Kaptur	(D)	D+ 8.1	D+ 9.4	D+ 1.3
OH	10	Kucinich	(D)	D+ 7.7	D+ 8.2	D+ 0.5
OH	11	Fudge	(D)	D+ 32.1	D+ 32.6	D+ 0.5
OH	12	Tiberi	(R)	R+ 1.5	D+ 0.0	D+ 1.6
OH	13	Sutton	(D)	D+ 5.8	D+ 5.6	R+ 0.2
OH	14	LaTourette	(R)	R+ 3.1	R+ 2.7	D+ 0.4
OH	15	Kilroy	(D)	R+ 1.6	D+ 1.1	D+ 2.6
OH	16	Boccieri	(D)	R+ 4.4	R+ 3.7	D+ 0.7
OH	17	Ryan	(D)	D+ 13.6	D+ 11.9	R+ 1.7
OH	18	Space	(D)	R+ 6.7	R+ 6.5	D+ 0.1
OK	1	Sullivan	(R)	R+ 13.3	R+ 15.7	R+ 2.4
OK	2	Boren	(D)	R+ 5.3	R+ 13.7	R+ 8.4
OK	3	Lucas	(R)	R+ 18.3	R+ 23.7	R+ 5.4
OK	4	Cole	(R)	R+ 13.8	R+ 17.7	R+ 3.9
OK	5	Fallin	(R)	R+ 12.5	R+ 12.7	R+ 0.2
OR	1	Wu	(D)	D+ 4.9	D+ 8.0	D+ 3.1
OR	2	Walden	(R)	R+ 11.9	R+ 9.9	D+ 2.0
OR	3	Blumenauer	(D)	D+ 16.8	D+ 18.9	D+ 2.1
OR	4	Defazio	(D)	R+ 0.9	D+ 1.6	D+ 2.5
OR	5	Schrader	(D)	R+ 0.0	D+ 1.4	D+ 1.4
PA	1	Brady	(D)	D+ 35.3	D+ 35.2	R+ 0.1
PA	2	Fattah	(D)	D+ 38.4	D+ 37.7	R+ 0.6
PA	3	Dahlkemper	(D)	R+ 2.0	R+ 2.7	R+ 0.7
PA	4	Altmire	(D)	R+ 3.3	R+ 6.3	R+ 3.0
PA	5	Thompson	(R)	R+ 10.4	R+ 9.5	D+ 0.9
PA	6	Gerlach	(R)	D+ 1.5	D+ 4.1	D+ 2.6
PA	7	Sestak	(D)	D+ 3.0	D+ 3.6	D+ 0.6
PA	8	Murphy	(D)	D+ 2.5	D+ 1.8	R+ 0.7
PA	9	Shuster	(R)	R+ 15.7	R+ 16.9	R+ 1.2
PA	10	Carney	(D)	R+ 8.4	R+ 8.5	R+ 0.1
PA	11	Kanjorski	(D)	D+ 4.8	D+ 4.1	R+ 0.8
PA	12	Murtha	(D)	D+ 3.8	R+ 1.0	R+ 4.7
PA	13	Schwartz	(D)	D+ 7.3	D+ 6.6	R+ 0.8
PA	14	Doyle	(D)	D+ 21.1	D+ 19.0	R+ 2.1
PA	15	Dent	(R)	D+ 0.7	D+ 2.1	D+ 1.3
PA	16	Pitts	(R)	R+ 12.0	R+ 7.8	D+ 4.2
PA	17	Holden	(D)	R+ 7.4	R+ 6.0	D+ 1.4
PA	18	Murphy	(R)	R+ 2.8	R+ 6.0	R+ 3.2
PA	19	Platts	(R)	R+ 13.0	R+ 11.5	D+ 1.5
RI	1	Kennedy	(D)	D+ 15.6	D+ 13.6	R+ 2.1
RI	2	Langevin	(D)	D+ 11.8	D+ 9.0	R+ 2.8
SC	1	Brown	(R)	R+ 10.4	R+ 10.5	R+ 0.1
SC	2	Wilson	(R)	R+ 9.7	R+ 8.8	D+ 0.9
SC	3	Barrett	(R)	R+ 14.7	R+ 16.5	R+ 1.9
SC	4	Inglis	(R)	R+ 15.3	R+ 14.7	D+ 0.7
SC	5	Spratt	(D)	R+ 6.4	R+ 6.8	R+ 0.4
SC	6	Clyburn	(D)	D+ 10.6	D+ 11.6	D+ 1.0
SD	AL	Herseth	(D)	R+ 10.7	R+ 8.9	D+ 1.9
TN	1	Roe	(R)	R+ 14.7	R+ 20.9	R+ 6.3
TN	2	Duncan	(R)	R+ 11.9	R+ 16.2	R+ 4.3
TN	3	Wamp	(R)	R+ 9.4	R+ 13.3	R+ 3.9
TN	4	Davis	(D)	R+ 4.1	R+ 13.2	R+ 9.1
TN	5	Cooper	(D)	D+ 5.3	D+ 3.1	R+ 2.2
TN	6	Gordon	(D)	R+ 4.5	R+ 12.5	R+ 8.0
TN	7	Blackburn	(R)	R+ 12.6	R+ 17.4	R+ 4.7
TN	8	Tanner	(D)	R+ 0.3	R+ 6.0	R+ 5.7
TN	9	Cohen	(D)	D+ 17.3	D+ 22.7	D+ 5.4
TX	1	Gohmert	(R)	R+ 17.7	R+ 20.2	R+ 2.5
TX	2	Poe	(R)	R+ 12.5	R+ 12.7	R+ 0.2
TX	3	Johnson	(R)	R+ 18.0	R+ 13.5	D+ 4.5
TX	4	Hall	(R)	R+ 17.5	R+ 21.1	R+ 3.6
TX	5	Hensarling	(R)	R+ 16.0	R+ 16.5	R+ 0.5
TX	6	Barton	(R)	R+ 15.5	R+ 14.2	D+ 1.3
TX	7	Culberson	(R)	R+ 16.0	R+ 12.5	D+ 3.5
TX	8	Brady	(R)	R+ 20.0	R+ 24.2	R+ 4.2
TX	9	Green	(D)	D+ 20.0	D+ 22.3	D+ 2.3
TX	10	McCaul	(R)	R+ 13.7	R+ 10.0	D+ 3.7
TX	11	Conaway	(R)	R+ 26.0	R+ 28.2	R+ 2.2
TX	12	Granger	(R)	R+ 15.0	R+ 16.5	R+ 1.5
TX	13	Thornberry	(R)	R+ 25.5	R+ 28.7	R+ 3.2
TX	14	Paul	(R)	R+ 15.0	R+ 18.1	R+ 3.0
TX	15	Hinojosa	(D)	D+ 2.0	D+ 3.3	D+ 1.3
TX	16	Reyes	(D)	D+ 8.2	D+ 10.0	D+ 1.8
TX	17	Edwards	(D)	R+ 18.5	R+ 20.1	R+ 1.5
TX	18	Jackson-Lee	(D)	D+ 22.5	D+ 23.7	D+ 1.2
TX	19	Neugebauer	(R)	R+ 25.5	R+ 26.1	R+ 0.6
TX	20	Gonzalez	(D)	D+ 7.0	D+ 8.1	D+ 1.1
TX	21	Smith	(R)	R+ 17.0	R+ 13.5	D+ 3.5
TX	22	Olson	(R)	R+ 15.0	R+ 12.5	D+ 2.5
TX	23	Rodriguez	(D)	R+ 4.7	R+ 4.0	D+ 0.8
TX	24	Marchant	(R)	R+ 16.0	R+ 11.5	D+ 4.5
TX	25	Doggett	(D)	D+ 1.0	D+ 5.6	D+ 4.6
TX	26	Burgess	(R)	R+ 13.0	R+ 13.0	R+ 0.0
TX	27	Ortiz	(D)	R+ 2.0	R+ 2.0	D+ 0.1
TX	28	Cuellar	(D)	R+ 1.5	R+ 0.2	D+ 1.3
TX	29	Green	(D)	D+ 7.0	D+ 7.8	D+ 0.8
TX	30	Johnson	(D)	D+ 25.0	D+ 27.3	D+ 2.3
TX	31	Carter	(R)	R+ 17.2	R+ 13.7	D+ 3.5
TX	32	Sessions	(R)	R+ 11.5	R+ 8.0	D+ 3.5
UT	1	Bishop	(R)	R+ 22.5	R+ 21.5	D+ 1.1
UT	2	Matheson	(D)	R+ 17.7	R+ 14.9	D+ 2.8
UT	3	Chaffetz	(R)	R+ 27.1	R+ 25.8	D+ 1.3
VA	1	Wittman	(R)	R+ 9.7	R+ 7.3	D+ 2.4
VA	2	Nye	(D)	R+ 6.6	R+ 4.7	D+ 1.9
VA	3	Scott	(D)	D+ 17.5	D+ 20.1	D+ 2.6
VA	4	Forbes	(R)	R+ 5.6	R+ 4.5	D+ 1.1
VA	5	Perriello	(D)	R+ 6.4	R+ 5.3	D+ 1.2
VA	6	Goodlatte	(R)	R+ 12.3	R+ 11.8	D+ 0.4
VA	7	Cantor	(R)	R+ 11.4	R+ 8.8	D+ 2.6
VA	8	Moran	(D)	D+ 12.8	D+ 16.0	D+ 3.1
VA	9	Boucher	(D)	R+ 8.2	R+ 11.3	R+ 3.2
VA	10	Wolf	(R)	R+ 6.2	R+ 2.2	D+ 3.9
VA	11	Connolly	(D)	R+ 1.6	D+ 2.3	D+ 3.9
VT	AL	Welch	(D)	D+ 8.3	D+ 13.2	D+ 4.9
WA	1	Inslee	(D)	D+ 7.0	D+ 9.0	D+ 2.0
WA	2	Larsen	(D)	D+ 2.0	D+ 3.4	D+ 1.3
WA	3	Baird	(D)	R+ 0.6	R+ 0.2	D+ 0.4
WA	4	Hastings	(R)	R+ 13.9	R+ 13.0	D+ 1.0
WA	5	McMorris	(R)	R+ 7.8	R+ 6.8	D+ 0.9
WA	6	Dicks	(D)	D+ 4.9	D+ 4.9	D+ 0.0
WA	7	McDermott	(D)	D+ 29.5	D+ 31.5	D+ 2.0
WA	8	Reichert	(R)	D+ 1.8	D+ 3.3	D+ 1.6
WA	9	Smith	(D)	D+ 4.9	D+ 5.3	D+ 0.5
WI	1	Ryan	(R)	R+ 3.1	R+ 2.5	D+ 0.6
WI	2	Baldwin	(D)	D+ 12.7	D+ 14.9	D+ 2.3
WI	3	Kind	(D)	D+ 2.0	D+ 3.8	D+ 1.8
WI	4	Moore	(D)	D+ 19.9	D+ 21.7	D+ 1.8
WI	5	Sensenbrenner	(R)	R+ 13.3	R+ 12.3	D+ 1.0
WI	6	Petri	(R)	R+ 5.7	R+ 4.2	D+ 1.4
WI	7	Obey	(D)	D+ 1.0	D+ 2.3	D+ 1.3
WI	8	Kagen	(D)	R+ 4.7	R+ 1.7	D+ 2.9
WV	1	Mollohan	(D)	R+ 6.3	R+ 9.0	R+ 2.7
WV	2	Capito	(R)	R+ 5.9	R+ 7.8	R+ 1.9
WV	3	Rahall	(D)	R+ 0.3	R+ 6.6	R+ 6.3
WY	AL	Lummis	(R)	R+ 20.3	R+ 19.6	D+ 0.7

This should really be a win (whoever gets the nomination) along with New Hampshire and Missouri.

“In Columbus there may be a great deal of jockeying about the Senate race, but around the state voters have not yet begun to pay attention to the contest,” said Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown. “It is clear at this point that there remains a Democratic advantage in the Ohio electorate that evidenced itself in 2006 and 2008.”

Dem Primary

Fisher 18

Brunner 14

Ryan 12

Yates 6

GOP Primary

Portman 31

Taylor 14

General

Fisher 41

Portman 33

Fisher 41

Taylor 31

Brunner 39

Portman 34

Brunner 38

Taylor 31

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128…

• NY-20: As we pass the two-week mark on the special election, Jim Tedisco has a new TV ad out that’s apparently the first salvo in his new decision to run far, far away from those mean national Republicans. Says Tedisco: “Like the president said, we’re not Republicans or Democrats, we’re Americans. And that’s the team I’m on.” So this is what we’ve come to, in just a few short years… a panicked and fearful Republican has to abandon the noble American rhetorical tradition of attack ads, and instead stoop to craven positive messaging?

• PA-Sen: Shortly after publicly spurning attempts by Democratic bigwigs to get him to party-switch, Arlen Specter sends up an interesting trial balloon: he may consider running as an independent in 2010, with the understanding that he would continue to caucus with Republicans. Since Pennsylvania has a sore loser law, he’d have to decide ahead of time to take this route rather than only after losing the GOP primary. The article gives the last word to Joe Lieberman: “I’d be delighted to have him in my caucus.”

• Maps: Pew Research Center has released a really interesting series of maps showing migration patterns between the four census regions of the country. The results shouldn’t be surprising (the most dominant pattern is northeast to south, followed by midwest to south, with the west basically holding steady), but they illustrate what we’re looking at with redistricting in 2010 (and also illustrates why we’re starting to see better results for Dems in the non-Deep parts of the South).

• Media: On a personal note for me, my daily newspaper is dead; long live my daily newspaper. This is the first day with no dead-tree edition of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer in about 150 years, but as you can see, seattlepi.com (with a dramatically reduced staff) just keeps humming right along (which doesn’t really affect me, since I was part of the problem; I only read only it online for free). Time will only tell whether this is the first bold step in reimagining the media business… or one more nail in journalism’s coffin as ‘newspapers’ keep moving toward aggregating other people’s information and not doing the actual work of reporting.

• WI-08: Republican John Gard, who lost two consecutive races to Democrat Steve Kagen, tells a local Fox affiliate that it is “highly unlikely” that he’ll run in 2010. Meanwhile, Door County Board of Supervisors member Mark Savard is in the race, and is already running radio ads. (J)

From the WaPo:

Word is that Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.), chair of the House Armed Services Committee’s subcommittee on strategic forces and a staunch superdelegate for presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton, is in line for a top post at the State Department, most likely for the undersecretary for arms control and nonproliferation slot.

It had been widely reported that highly regarded arms control guru Robert Einhorn, who had been assistant secretary for arms control in the Clinton administration, was penciled in to move up to that post, but we’re hearing he has turned it down for personal reasons. And Secretary of State Clinton did, after all, win the California primary.

Well, I don’t really see what Hillary’s California primary win has to do with any of this, but that’s neither here nor there. Assuming Tauscher is tapped for this gig, we’ll have another California special election on our hands (Hilda Solis’ vacancy in CA-32 being the other). While Tauscher used to hold a competitive district in the ’90s, her CD was redrawn after the most recent census to include more Democratic turf — on top of that, the 10th CD has taken a sharp turn in the Democratic direction over the last pair of Presidential elections. According to SSP’s Prez-by-CD analysis, Obama carried the 10th district by a 65-33 margin, a significant jump from the 59-40 Kerry win here four years earlier (and the 55-41 performance by Gore in 2000).

If a special election happens here, Team Blue will be in pretty good shape. Anyone have any ideas as to who may run?

(Hat-tip: mikeel)

UPDATE: Roll Call says that it’s a done deal:

Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.) will be tapped for a top State Department post, sources with knowledge of the pending nomination said.

Ellen Tauscher is heading to the State Department as the undersecretary for arms control:

http://voices.washingtonpost.c…

She is considered a “blue dog,” but is this seat really in jeopardy?  Who might run?  Will the primary be on May 19, or it too late for that?

A lot of questions.

Based on Swing State’s Compilation of presidential results for all 435 Congressional Districts, I have calculated the new Cook PVIs for each congressional district:

State	CD	Member	Party	Old PVI	New PVI	Change
AK	AL	Young	(R)	R+ 14.1	R+ 15.5	R+ 1.4
AL	1	Bonner	(R)	R+ 11.7	R+ 16.5	R+ 4.8
AL	2	Bright	(D)	R+ 13.1	R+ 19.0	R+ 5.9
AL	3	Rogers	(R)	R+ 4.3	R+ 11.3	R+ 6.9
AL	4	Aderholt	(R)	R+ 15.7	R+ 27.9	R+ 12.2
AL	5	Griffith	(D)	R+ 6.6	R+ 14.8	R+ 8.2
AL	6	Bachus	(R)	R+ 25.1	R+ 31.1	R+ 5.9
AL	7	Davis	(D)	D+ 16.9	D+ 15.0	R+ 1.9
AR	1	Berry	(D)	D+ 0.5	R+ 10.4	R+ 10.8
AR	2	Snyder	(D)	D+ 0.2	R+ 7.0	R+ 7.2
AR	3	Boozman	(R)	R+ 11.3	R+ 18.0	R+ 6.6
AR	4	Ross	(D)	D+ 0.7	R+ 9.3	R+ 10.1
AZ	1	Kirkpatrick	(D)	R+ 2.0	R+ 8.2	R+ 6.2
AZ	2	Franks	(R)	R+ 8.6	R+ 15.3	R+ 6.6
AZ	3	Shadegg	(R)	R+ 6.1	R+ 11.8	R+ 5.6
AZ	4	Pastor	(D)	D+ 14.4	D+ 10.7	R+ 3.7
AZ	5	Mitchell	(D)	R+ 3.9	R+ 7.2	R+ 3.4
AZ	6	Flake	(R)	R+ 12.2	R+ 16.8	R+ 4.6
AZ	7	Grijalva	(D)	D+ 10.0	D+ 3.6	R+ 6.3
AZ	8	Giffords	(D)	R+ 1.6	R+ 7.0	R+ 5.4
CA	1	Thompson	(D)	D+ 10.4	D+ 10.6	D+ 0.2
CA	2	Herger	(R)	R+ 12.5	R+ 13.1	R+ 0.5
CA	3	Lungren	(R)	R+ 6.7	R+ 8.0	R+ 1.3
CA	4	McClintock	(R)	R+ 10.9	R+ 12.4	R+ 1.4
CA	5	Matsui	(D)	D+ 13.6	D+ 12.8	R+ 0.8
CA	6	Woolsey	(D)	D+ 20.7	D+ 20.8	D+ 0.2
CA	7	Miller	(D)	D+ 19.1	D+ 16.8	R+ 2.3
CA	8	Pelosi	(D)	D+ 36.0	D+ 33.1	R+ 3.0
CA	9	Lee	(D)	D+ 37.6	D+ 34.7	R+ 3.0
CA	10	Tauscher	(D)	D+ 9.7	D+ 9.3	R+ 0.4
CA	11	McNerney	(D)	R+ 3.1	R+ 3.7	R+ 0.6
CA	12	Speier	(D)	D+ 22.5	D+ 20.4	R+ 2.1
CA	13	Stark	(D)	D+ 21.6	D+ 19.9	R+ 1.7
CA	14	Eshoo	(D)	D+ 18.2	D+ 18.3	D+ 0.0
CA	15	Honda	(D)	D+ 14.3	D+ 12.8	R+ 1.5
CA	16	Lofgren	(D)	D+ 16.1	D+ 13.5	R+ 2.6
CA	17	Farr	(D)	D+ 16.8	D+ 16.4	R+ 0.4
CA	18	Cardoza	(D)	D+ 3.3	D+ 1.2	R+ 2.1
CA	19	Radanovich	(R)	R+ 9.5	R+ 11.0	R+ 1.6
CA	20	Costa	(D)	D+ 4.8	D+ 2.4	R+ 2.4
CA	21	Nunes	(R)	R+ 12.7	R+ 15.1	R+ 2.4
CA	22	McCarthy	(R)	R+ 16.1	R+ 18.6	R+ 2.5
CA	23	Capps	(D)	D+ 9.6	D+ 9.4	R+ 0.1
CA	24	Gallegly	(R)	R+ 4.9	R+ 6.2	R+ 1.3
CA	25	McKeon	(R)	R+ 7.1	R+ 8.0	R+ 0.8
CA	26	Dreier	(R)	R+ 3.9	R+ 5.4	R+ 1.6
CA	27	Sherman	(D)	D+ 12.6	D+ 10.1	R+ 2.5
CA	28	Berman	(D)	D+ 24.7	D+ 21.0	R+ 3.8
CA	29	Schiff	(D)	D+ 12.6	D+ 12.1	R+ 0.4
CA	30	Waxman	(D)	D+ 20.0	D+ 15.4	R+ 4.6
CA	31	Becerra	(D)	D+ 30.2	D+ 26.0	R+ 4.2
CA	32		(D)	D+ 16.7	D+ 12.3	R+ 4.4
CA	33	Watson	(D)	D+ 35.9	D+ 32.2	R+ 3.8
CA	34	Roybal-Allard	(D)	D+ 22.8	D+ 19.4	R+ 3.4
CA	35	Waters	(D)	D+ 32.6	D+ 29.1	R+ 3.5
CA	36	Harman	(D)	D+ 10.7	D+ 8.8	R+ 2.0
CA	37	Richardson	(D)	D+ 27.4	D+ 24.1	R+ 3.3
CA	38	Napolitano	(D)	D+ 19.8	D+ 15.4	R+ 4.4
CA	39	Sanchez	(D)	D+ 12.7	D+ 9.8	R+ 2.9
CA	40	Royce	(R)	R+ 7.9	R+ 10.0	R+ 2.1
CA	41	Lewis	(R)	R+ 8.9	R+ 12.5	R+ 3.6
CA	42	Miller	(R)	R+ 10.2	R+ 12.0	R+ 1.9
CA	43	Baca	(D)	D+ 13.2	D+ 10.3	R+ 2.9
CA	44	Calvert	(R)	R+ 5.9	R+ 8.2	R+ 2.4
CA	45	Bono	(R)	R+ 3.1	R+ 5.7	R+ 2.6
CA	46	Rohrabacher	(R)	R+ 5.9	R+ 8.0	R+ 2.1
CA	47	Sanchez	(D)	D+ 4.6	D+ 1.7	R+ 2.9
CA	48	Campbell	(R)	R+ 7.9	R+ 8.3	R+ 0.3
CA	49	Issa	(R)	R+ 10.7	R+ 12.5	R+ 1.9
CA	50	Bilbray	(R)	R+ 4.4	R+ 5.4	R+ 1.1
CA	51	Filner	(D)	D+ 7.1	D+ 4.9	R+ 2.2
CA	52	Hunter	(R)	R+ 8.9	R+ 11.5	R+ 2.6
CA	53	Davis	(D)	D+ 12.3	D+ 11.8	R+ 0.4
CO	1	DeGette	(D)	D+ 18.0	D+ 18.4	D+ 0.4
CO	2	Udall	(D)	D+ 7.9	D+ 8.3	D+ 0.4
CO	3	Salazar	(D)	R+ 5.6	R+ 7.2	R+ 1.7
CO	4	Markey	(D)	R+ 8.4	R+ 8.2	D+ 0.1
CO	5	Lamborn	(R)	R+ 15.6	R+ 16.8	R+ 1.2
CO	6	Coffman	(R)	R+ 10.0	R+ 10.8	R+ 0.8
CO	7	Perlmutter	(D)	D+ 2.3	D+ 1.9	R+ 0.4
CT	1	Larson	(D)	D+ 14.2	D+ 10.0	R+ 4.2
CT	2	Courtney	(D)	D+ 7.5	D+ 3.7	R+ 3.8
CT	3	DeLauro	(D)	D+ 11.7	D+ 6.7	R+ 5.0
CT	4	Himes	(D)	D+ 5.4	D+ 2.9	R+ 2.5
CT	5	Murphy	(D)	D+ 3.6	R+ 0.1	R+ 3.7
DE	AL	Castle	(R)	D+ 6.4	D+ 4.4	R+ 2.0
FL	1	Miller	(R)	R+ 19.3	R+ 23.5	R+ 4.3
FL	2	Boyd	(D)	R+ 2.3	R+ 8.0	R+ 5.7
FL	3	Brown	(D)	D+ 16.2	D+ 15.7	R+ 0.6
FL	4	Crenshaw	(R)	R+ 16.3	R+ 19.0	R+ 2.7
FL	5	Brown-Waite	(R)	R+ 5.1	R+ 11.3	R+ 6.2
FL	6	Stearns	(R)	R+ 8.3	R+ 12.5	R+ 4.2
FL	7	Mica	(R)	R+ 4.3	R+ 8.9	R+ 4.7
FL	8	Grayson	(D)	R+ 3.3	R+ 4.7	R+ 1.4
FL	9	Bilirakis	(R)	R+ 4.3	R+ 8.4	R+ 4.2
FL	10	Young	(R)	D+ 1.2	R+ 3.2	R+ 4.4
FL	11	Castor	(D)	D+ 11.0	D+ 8.9	R+ 2.1
FL	12	Putnam	(R)	R+ 5.3	R+ 7.9	R+ 2.7
FL	13	Buchanan	(R)	R+ 4.0	R+ 7.9	R+ 4.0
FL	14	Mack	(R)	R+ 10.3	R+ 13.5	R+ 3.2
FL	15	Posey	(R)	R+ 4.3	R+ 7.9	R+ 3.7
FL	16	Rooney	(R)	R+ 2.3	R+ 6.9	R+ 4.7
FL	17	Meek	(D)	D+ 35.2	D+ 31.8	R+ 3.5
FL	18	Ros-Lehtinen	(R)	R+ 4.3	R+ 5.2	R+ 0.9
FL	19	Wexler	(D)	D+ 20.7	D+ 12.1	R+ 8.6
FL	20	Wasserman-Schultz	(D)	D+ 17.7	D+ 10.1	R+ 7.6
FL	21	Diaz-Balart	(R)	R+ 6.3	R+ 7.7	R+ 1.4
FL	22	Klein	(D)	D+ 3.2	R+ 1.7	R+ 4.9
FL	23	Hastings	(D)	D+ 29.2	D+ 25.8	R+ 3.4
FL	24	Kosmas	(D)	R+ 2.8	R+ 6.7	R+ 3.9
FL	25	Diaz-Balart	(R)	R+ 4.3	R+ 6.9	R+ 2.7
GA	1	Kingston	(R)	R+ 12.8	R+ 18.5	R+ 5.7
GA	2	Bishop	(D)	D+ 2.2	R+ 1.7	R+ 3.9
GA	3	Westmoreland	(R)	R+ 17.6	R+ 21.4	R+ 3.7
GA	4	Johnson	(D)	D+ 22.1	D+ 21.7	R+ 0.4
GA	5	Lewis	(D)	D+ 24.7	D+ 23.2	R+ 1.5
GA	6	Price	(R)	R+ 18.1	R+ 20.3	R+ 2.2
GA	7	Linder	(R)	R+ 18.3	R+ 19.0	R+ 0.7
GA	8	Marshall	(D)	R+ 8.3	R+ 12.5	R+ 4.2
GA	9	Deal	(R)	R+ 22.8	R+ 30.1	R+ 7.3
GA	10	Broun	(R)	R+ 12.8	R+ 17.0	R+ 4.2
GA	11	Gingrey	(R)	R+ 16.9	R+ 22.5	R+ 5.6
GA	12	Barrow	(D)	D+ 2.0	R+ 1.7	R+ 3.7
GA	13	Scott	(D)	D+ 9.7	D+ 12.2	D+ 2.4
HI	1	Abercrombie	(D)	D+ 7.0	D+ 8.5	D+ 1.5
HI	2	Hirono	(D)	D+ 9.7	D+ 11.6	D+ 1.9
IA	1	Braley	(D)	D+ 4.8	D+ 2.4	R+ 2.4
IA	2	Loebsack	(D)	D+ 6.6	D+ 4.7	R+ 1.9
IA	3	Boswell	(D)	D+ 1.5	R+ 1.1	R+ 2.6
IA	4	Latham	(R)	D+ 0.2	R+ 2.4	R+ 2.6
IA	5	King	(R)	R+ 8.4	R+ 11.5	R+ 3.1
ID	1	Minnick	(D)	R+ 19.0	R+ 20.2	R+ 1.1
ID	2	Simpson	(R)	R+ 18.9	R+ 20.0	R+ 1.1
IL	1	Rush	(D)	D+ 34.7	D+ 31.3	R+ 3.4
IL	2	Jackson	(D)	D+ 34.7	D+ 33.3	R+ 1.4
IL	3	Lipinski	(D)	D+ 10.3	D+ 8.1	R+ 2.2
IL	4	Gutierrez	(D)	D+ 30.6	D+ 29.2	R+ 1.5
IL	5		(D)	D+ 17.7	D+ 16.7	R+ 1.1
IL	6	Roskam	(R)	R+ 2.6	R+ 1.9	D+ 0.7
IL	7	Davis	(D)	D+ 34.7	D+ 31.8	R+ 2.8
IL	8	Bean	(D)	R+ 5.3	R+ 3.4	D+ 1.9
IL	9	Schakowsky	(D)	D+ 19.4	D+ 17.1	R+ 2.4
IL	10	Kirk	(R)	D+ 3.8	D+ 3.6	R+ 0.1
IL	11	Halvorson	(D)	R+ 1.0	R+ 3.4	R+ 2.4
IL	12	Costello	(D)	D+ 5.1	R+ 0.1	R+ 5.2
IL	13	Biggert	(R)	R+ 4.6	R+ 3.9	D+ 0.7
IL	14	Foster	(D)	R+ 4.4	R+ 3.7	D+ 0.7
IL	15	Johnson	(R)	R+ 6.1	R+ 8.7	R+ 2.6
IL	16	Manzullo	(R)	R+ 4.4	R+ 4.4	R+ 0.0
IL	17	Hare	(D)	D+ 4.6	D+ 0.6	R+ 3.9
IL	18	Schock	(R)	R+ 5.3	R+ 8.2	R+ 2.9
IL	19	Shimkus	(R)	R+ 8.1	R+ 11.7	R+ 3.6
IN	1	Visclosky	(D)	D+ 7.6	D+ 5.4	R+ 2.2
IN	2	Donnelly	(D)	R+ 4.1	R+ 4.7	R+ 0.6
IN	3	Souder	(R)	R+ 16.4	R+ 16.3	D+ 0.1
IN	4	Buyer	(R)	R+ 17.3	R+ 16.8	D+ 0.5
IN	5	Burton	(R)	R+ 19.5	R+ 19.3	D+ 0.1
IN	6	Pence	(R)	R+ 10.9	R+ 12.8	R+ 1.9
IN	7	Carson	(D)	D+ 8.5	D+ 11.2	D+ 2.7
IN	8	Ellsworth	(D)	R+ 8.5	R+ 10.7	R+ 2.2
IN	9	Hill	(D)	R+ 7.1	R+ 8.7	R+ 1.6
KS	1	Moran	(R)	R+ 20.4	R+ 25.3	R+ 4.9
KS	2	Jenkins	(R)	R+ 7.3	R+ 11.8	R+ 4.6
KS	3	Moore	(D)	R+ 4.4	R+ 5.7	R+ 1.3
KS	4	Tiahrt	(R)	R+ 12.1	R+ 15.9	R+ 3.8
KY	1	Whitfield	(R)	R+ 10.2	R+ 16.8	R+ 6.6
KY	2	Guthrie	(R)	R+ 12.9	R+ 17.3	R+ 4.4
KY	3	Yarmuth	(D)	D+ 2.3	D+ 0.1	R+ 2.2
KY	4	Davis	(R)	R+ 11.7	R+ 16.1	R+ 4.4
KY	5	Rogers	(R)	R+ 8.0	R+ 18.4	R+ 10.3
KY	6	Chandler	(D)	R+ 6.6	R+ 11.0	R+ 4.4
LA	1	Scalise	(R)	R+ 18.8	R+ 26.4	R+ 7.6
LA	2	Cao	(R)	D+ 27.9	D+ 21.6	R+ 6.3
LA	3	Melancon	(D)	R+ 4.9	R+ 14.1	R+ 9.2
LA	4	Fleming	(R)	R+ 6.6	R+ 13.3	R+ 6.7
LA	5	Alexander	(R)	R+ 9.5	R+ 16.3	R+ 6.9
LA	6	Cassidy	(R)	R+ 6.6	R+ 12.6	R+ 5.9
LA	7	Boustany	(R)	R+ 7.4	R+ 16.1	R+ 8.7
MA	1	Olver	(D)	D+ 14.8	D+ 11.1	R+ 3.7
MA	2	Neal	(D)	D+ 12.2	D+ 6.2	R+ 6.0
MA	3	McGovern	(D)	D+ 12.4	D+ 6.2	R+ 6.2
MA	4	Frank	(D)	D+ 19.0	D+ 11.8	R+ 7.2
MA	5	Tsongas	(D)	D+ 11.0	D+ 5.5	R+ 5.5
MA	6	Tierney	(D)	D+ 11.2	D+ 4.9	R+ 6.3
MA	7	Markey	(D)	D+ 19.0	D+ 12.8	R+ 6.2
MA	8	Capuano	(D)	D+ 33.0	D+ 29.6	R+ 3.4
MA	9	Lynch	(D)	D+ 15.3	D+ 8.4	R+ 6.9
MA	10	Delahunt	(D)	D+ 8.6	D+ 2.4	R+ 6.2
MD	1	Kratovil	(D)	R+ 9.8	R+ 14.9	R+ 5.1
MD	2	Ruppersberger	(D)	D+ 7.6	D+ 4.2	R+ 3.4
MD	3	Sarbanes	(D)	D+ 7.2	D+ 3.7	R+ 3.5
MD	4	Edwards	(D)	D+ 29.9	D+ 28.6	R+ 1.3
MD	5	Hoyer	(D)	D+ 9.1	D+ 8.3	R+ 0.8
MD	6	Bartlett	(R)	R+ 13.0	R+ 16.1	R+ 3.1
MD	7	Cummings	(D)	D+ 25.4	D+ 23.1	R+ 2.3
MD	8	Van Hollen	(D)	D+ 20.1	D+ 18.5	R+ 1.6
ME	1	Pingree	(D)	D+ 6.2	D+ 5.2	R+ 1.0
ME	2	Michaud	(D)	D+ 3.6	D+ 0.9	R+ 2.7
MI	1	Stupak	(D)	R+ 2.3	R+ 4.9	R+ 2.6
MI	2	Hoekstra	(R)	R+ 9.5	R+ 9.7	R+ 0.3
MI	3	Ehlers	(R)	R+ 9.2	R+ 8.5	D+ 0.7
MI	4	Camp	(R)	R+ 4.1	R+ 5.9	R+ 1.9
MI	5	Kildee	(D)	D+ 11.9	D+ 8.1	R+ 3.7
MI	6	Upton	(R)	R+ 2.3	R+ 3.2	R+ 0.8
MI	7	Schauer	(D)	R+ 2.3	R+ 4.4	R+ 2.1
MI	8	Rogers	(R)	R+ 2.1	R+ 4.2	R+ 2.1
MI	9	Peters	(D)	R+ 0.3	R+ 0.9	R+ 0.6
MI	10	Miller	(R)	R+ 4.3	R+ 7.7	R+ 3.4
MI	11	McCotter	(R)	R+ 1.3	R+ 2.9	R+ 1.6
MI	12	Levin	(D)	D+ 12.9	D+ 10.0	R+ 2.9
MI	13	Kilpatrick	(D)	D+ 32.1	D+ 29.3	R+ 2.8
MI	14	Conyers	(D)	D+ 33.7	D+ 30.8	R+ 2.8
MI	15	Dingell	(D)	D+ 12.9	D+ 10.7	R+ 2.2
MN	1	Walz	(D)	R+ 0.8	R+ 3.7	R+ 2.8
MN	2	Kline	(R)	R+ 2.9	R+ 6.5	R+ 3.6
MN	3	Paulsen	(R)	R+ 0.6	R+ 2.9	R+ 2.4
MN	4	McCollum	(D)	D+ 12.9	D+ 10.3	R+ 2.6
MN	5	Ellison	(D)	D+ 21.3	D+ 19.9	R+ 1.4
MN	6	Bachmann	(R)	R+ 5.2	R+ 9.5	R+ 4.3
MN	7	Peterson	(D)	R+ 5.5	R+ 7.5	R+ 2.0
MN	8	Oberstar	(D)	D+ 4.4	D+ 0.1	R+ 4.2
MO	1	Clay	(D)	D+ 25.5	D+ 24.2	R+ 1.3
MO	2	Akin	(R)	R+ 8.9	R+ 11.5	R+ 2.6
MO	3	Carnahan	(D)	D+ 7.6	D+ 5.1	R+ 2.5
MO	4	Skelton	(D)	R+ 10.7	R+ 16.8	R+ 6.1
MO	5	Cleaver	(D)	D+ 12.0	D+ 8.4	R+ 3.5
MO	6	Graves	(R)	R+ 4.9	R+ 9.7	R+ 4.9
MO	7	Blunt	(R)	R+ 14.2	R+ 19.7	R+ 5.4
MO	8	Emerson	(R)	R+ 10.9	R+ 17.3	R+ 6.5
MO	9	Luetkemeyer	(R)	R+ 6.6	R+ 11.0	R+ 4.4
MS	1	Childers	(D)	R+ 9.9	R+ 16.0	R+ 6.1
MS	2	Thompson	(D)	D+ 10.1	D+ 9.1	R+ 1.0
MS	3	Harper	(R)	R+ 13.9	R+ 17.5	R+ 3.6
MS	4	Taylor	(D)	R+ 16.3	R+ 22.0	R+ 5.8
MT	AL	Rehberg	(R)	R+ 10.7	R+ 9.3	D+ 1.4
NC	1	Butterfield	(D)	D+ 8.8	D+ 6.4	R+ 2.4
NC	2	Etheridge	(D)	R+ 2.5	R+ 4.4	R+ 1.9
NC	3	Jones	(R)	R+ 15.1	R+ 18.5	R+ 3.4
NC	4	Price	(D)	D+ 5.8	D+ 5.9	D+ 0.1
NC	5	Foxx	(R)	R+ 15.4	R+ 17.8	R+ 2.4
NC	6	Coble	(R)	R+ 17.4	R+ 20.3	R+ 2.9
NC	7	McIntyre	(D)	R+ 2.8	R+ 7.9	R+ 5.2
NC	8	Kissell	(D)	R+ 3.0	R+ 4.5	R+ 1.4
NC	9	Myrick	(R)	R+ 12.4	R+ 13.0	R+ 0.6
NC	10	McHenry	(R)	R+ 15.1	R+ 19.0	R+ 3.9
NC	11	Shuler	(D)	R+ 6.8	R+ 8.4	R+ 1.6
NC	12	Watt	(D)	D+ 11.5	D+ 13.2	D+ 1.6
NC	13	Miller	(D)	D+ 2.3	D+ 2.4	D+ 0.1
ND	AL	Pomeroy	(D)	R+ 13.0	R+ 12.5	D+ 0.5
NE	1	Fortenberry	(R)	R+ 11.6	R+ 13.0	R+ 1.4
NE	2	Terry	(R)	R+ 9.1	R+ 9.0	D+ 0.0
NE	3	Smith	(R)	R+ 23.6	R+ 26.4	R+ 2.8
NH	1	Shea-Porter	(D)	R+ 0.3	R+ 2.9	R+ 2.6
NH	2	Hodes	(D)	D+ 2.8	D+ 0.9	R+ 1.9
NJ	1	Andrews	(D)	D+ 14.2	D+ 9.6	R+ 4.6
NJ	2	Lobiondo	(R)	D+ 3.8	R+ 1.7	R+ 5.5
NJ	3	Adler	(D)	D+ 3.6	R+ 2.9	R+ 6.5
NJ	4	Smith	(R)	R+ 0.7	R+ 7.9	R+ 7.2
NJ	5	Garrett	(R)	R+ 4.1	R+ 9.5	R+ 5.4
NJ	6	Pallone	(D)	D+ 11.5	D+ 5.1	R+ 6.4
NJ	7	Lance	(R)	R+ 0.5	R+ 4.4	R+ 3.9
NJ	8	Pascrell	(D)	D+ 11.7	D+ 7.6	R+ 4.0
NJ	9	Rothman	(D)	D+ 13.2	D+ 6.6	R+ 6.6
NJ	10	Payne	(D)	D+ 34.2	D+ 30.8	R+ 3.3
NJ	11	Frelinghuysen	(R)	R+ 5.6	R+ 10.0	R+ 4.4
NJ	12	Holt	(D)	D+ 7.4	D+ 2.6	R+ 4.8
NJ	13	Sires	(D)	D+ 22.9	D+ 18.7	R+ 4.2
NM	1	Heinrich	(D)	D+ 2.3	D+ 2.1	R+ 0.2
NM	2	Teague	(D)	R+ 5.9	R+ 8.2	R+ 2.3
NM	3	Lujan	(D)	D+ 5.9	D+ 4.4	R+ 1.5
NV	1	Berkley	(D)	D+ 8.9	D+ 7.8	R+ 1.1
NV	2	Heller	(R)	R+ 8.2	R+ 7.8	D+ 0.4
NV	3	Titus	(D)	D+ 1.2	R+ 0.9	R+ 2.1
NY	1	Bishop	(D)	D+ 3.3	R+ 2.7	R+ 6.0
NY	2	Israel	(D)	D+ 8.0	D+ 1.6	R+ 6.3
NY	3	King	(R)	D+ 2.1	R+ 6.2	R+ 8.3
NY	4	McCarthy	(D)	D+ 9.4	D+ 3.4	R+ 6.0
NY	5	Ackerman	(D)	D+ 17.6	D+ 10.0	R+ 7.6
NY	6	Meeks	(D)	D+ 38.1	D+ 33.2	R+ 4.8
NY	7	Crowley	(D)	D+ 27.7	D+ 23.6	R+ 4.1
NY	8	Nadler	(D)	D+ 27.8	D+ 19.7	R+ 8.1
NY	9	Weiner	(D)	D+ 13.8	D+ 2.1	R+ 11.7
NY	10	Towns	(D)	D+ 40.5	D+ 35.3	R+ 5.3
NY	11	Clarke	(D)	D+ 39.8	D+ 35.3	R+ 4.5
NY	12	Velazquez	(D)	D+ 33.5	D+ 30.2	R+ 3.3
NY	13	McMahon	(D)	D+ 0.8	R+ 6.7	R+ 7.5
NY	14	Maloney	(D)	D+ 26.3	D+ 23.1	R+ 3.2
NY	15	Rangel	(D)	D+ 43.0	D+ 38.7	R+ 4.2
NY	16	Serrano	(D)	D+ 43.6	D+ 38.8	R+ 4.8
NY	17	Engel	(D)	D+ 20.7	D+ 15.8	R+ 4.9
NY	18	Lowey	(D)	D+ 10.1	D+ 6.3	R+ 3.8
NY	19	Hall	(D)	R+ 1.6	R+ 5.2	R+ 3.6
NY	20		(D)	R+ 2.6	R+ 4.9	R+ 2.3
NY	21	Tonko	(D)	D+ 8.8	D+ 4.0	R+ 4.8
NY	22	Hinchey	(D)	D+ 5.9	D+ 3.7	R+ 2.2
NY	23	McHugh	(R)	R+ 0.3	R+ 3.4	R+ 3.1
NY	24	Arcuri	(D)	R+ 0.5	R+ 4.4	R+ 3.9
NY	25	Maffei	(D)	D+ 3.3	D+ 0.1	R+ 3.2
NY	26	Lee	(R)	R+ 3.7	R+ 8.3	R+ 4.6
NY	27	Higgins	(D)	D+ 6.5	D+ 0.9	R+ 5.6
NY	28	Slaughter	(D)	D+ 14.6	D+ 13.0	R+ 1.7
NY	29	Massa	(D)	R+ 4.9	R+ 8.0	R+ 3.1
OH	1	Driehaus	(D)	R+ 0.5	R+ 1.4	R+ 0.9
OH	2	Schmidt	(R)	R+ 13.2	R+ 15.5	R+ 2.2
OH	3	Turner	(R)	R+ 2.6	R+ 6.7	R+ 4.1
OH	4	Jordan	(R)	R+ 13.5	R+ 17.1	R+ 3.6
OH	5	Latta	(R)	R+ 10.0	R+ 11.2	R+ 1.2
OH	6	Wilson	(D)	D+ 0.2	R+ 4.7	R+ 4.9
OH	7	Austria	(R)	R+ 5.8	R+ 9.5	R+ 3.6
OH	8	Boehner	(R)	R+ 12.5	R+ 16.6	R+ 4.1
OH	9	Kaptur	(D)	D+ 8.9	D+ 7.0	R+ 1.9
OH	10	Kucinich	(D)	D+ 8.4	D+ 5.7	R+ 2.7
OH	11	Fudge	(D)	D+ 32.9	D+ 30.2	R+ 2.7
OH	12	Tiberi	(R)	R+ 0.8	R+ 2.4	R+ 1.6
OH	13	Sutton	(D)	D+ 6.6	D+ 3.1	R+ 3.5
OH	14	LaTourette	(R)	R+ 2.3	R+ 5.2	R+ 2.8
OH	15	Kilroy	(D)	R+ 0.8	R+ 1.4	R+ 0.6
OH	16	Boccieri	(D)	R+ 3.7	R+ 6.2	R+ 2.5
OH	17	Ryan	(D)	D+ 14.3	D+ 9.5	R+ 4.9
OH	18	Space	(D)	R+ 5.9	R+ 9.0	R+ 3.1
OK	1	Sullivan	(R)	R+ 12.6	R+ 18.2	R+ 5.6
OK	2	Boren	(D)	R+ 4.5	R+ 16.2	R+ 11.7
OK	3	Lucas	(R)	R+ 17.6	R+ 26.2	R+ 8.6
OK	4	Cole	(R)	R+ 13.1	R+ 20.2	R+ 7.1
OK	5	Fallin	(R)	R+ 11.8	R+ 15.2	R+ 3.4
OR	1	Wu	(D)	D+ 5.6	D+ 5.5	R+ 0.1
OR	2	Walden	(R)	R+ 11.1	R+ 12.3	R+ 1.2
OR	3	Blumenauer	(D)	D+ 17.5	D+ 16.4	R+ 1.1
OR	4	Defazio	(D)	R+ 0.1	R+ 0.8	R+ 0.7
OR	5	Schrader	(D)	D+ 0.7	R+ 1.1	R+ 1.8
PA	1	Brady	(D)	D+ 36.1	D+ 32.7	R+ 3.3
PA	2	Fattah	(D)	D+ 39.1	D+ 35.3	R+ 3.9
PA	3	Dahlkemper	(D)	R+ 1.3	R+ 5.2	R+ 3.9
PA	4	Altmire	(D)	R+ 2.6	R+ 8.7	R+ 6.2
PA	5	Thompson	(R)	R+ 9.7	R+ 12.0	R+ 2.3
PA	6	Gerlach	(R)	D+ 2.2	D+ 1.6	R+ 0.6
PA	7	Sestak	(D)	D+ 3.8	D+ 1.1	R+ 2.7
PA	8	Murphy	(D)	D+ 3.3	R+ 0.7	R+ 3.9
PA	9	Shuster	(R)	R+ 14.9	R+ 19.3	R+ 4.4
PA	10	Carney	(D)	R+ 7.6	R+ 11.0	R+ 3.3
PA	11	Kanjorski	(D)	D+ 5.6	D+ 1.6	R+ 4.0
PA	12	Murtha	(D)	D+ 4.5	R+ 3.4	R+ 8.0
PA	13	Schwartz	(D)	D+ 8.1	D+ 4.1	R+ 4.0
PA	14	Doyle	(D)	D+ 21.8	D+ 16.5	R+ 5.3
PA	15	Dent	(R)	D+ 1.5	R+ 0.4	R+ 1.9
PA	16	Pitts	(R)	R+ 11.2	R+ 10.2	D+ 1.0
PA	17	Holden	(D)	R+ 6.6	R+ 8.4	R+ 1.8
PA	18	Murphy	(R)	R+ 2.0	R+ 8.5	R+ 6.4
PA	19	Platts	(R)	R+ 12.2	R+ 14.0	R+ 1.8
RI	1	Kennedy	(D)	D+ 16.4	D+ 11.1	R+ 5.3
RI	2	Langevin	(D)	D+ 12.6	D+ 6.5	R+ 6.1
SC	1	Brown	(R)	R+ 9.7	R+ 13.0	R+ 3.3
SC	2	Wilson	(R)	R+ 9.0	R+ 11.3	R+ 2.3
SC	3	Barrett	(R)	R+ 13.9	R+ 19.0	R+ 5.1
SC	4	Inglis	(R)	R+ 14.6	R+ 17.1	R+ 2.5
SC	5	Spratt	(D)	R+ 5.6	R+ 9.2	R+ 3.6
SC	6	Clyburn	(D)	D+ 11.3	D+ 9.1	R+ 2.2
SD	AL	Herseth	(D)	R+ 10.0	R+ 11.3	R+ 1.4
TN	1	Roe	(R)	R+ 13.9	R+ 23.4	R+ 9.5
TN	2	Duncan	(R)	R+ 11.2	R+ 18.7	R+ 7.5
TN	3	Wamp	(R)	R+ 8.6	R+ 15.8	R+ 7.2
TN	4	Davis	(D)	R+ 3.3	R+ 15.6	R+ 12.3
TN	5	Cooper	(D)	D+ 6.0	D+ 0.6	R+ 5.4
TN	6	Gordon	(D)	R+ 3.8	R+ 15.0	R+ 11.2
TN	7	Blackburn	(R)	R+ 11.9	R+ 19.8	R+ 8.0
TN	8	Tanner	(D)	D+ 0.5	R+ 8.5	R+ 9.0
TN	9	Cohen	(D)	D+ 18.1	D+ 20.2	D+ 2.1
TX	1	Gohmert	(R)	R+ 16.9	R+ 22.7	R+ 5.8
TX	2	Poe	(R)	R+ 11.8	R+ 15.2	R+ 3.4
TX	3	Johnson	(R)	R+ 17.3	R+ 16.0	D+ 1.3
TX	4	Hall	(R)	R+ 16.8	R+ 23.5	R+ 6.8
TX	5	Hensarling	(R)	R+ 15.3	R+ 19.0	R+ 3.7
TX	6	Barton	(R)	R+ 14.8	R+ 16.7	R+ 1.9
TX	7	Culberson	(R)	R+ 15.3	R+ 15.0	D+ 0.3
TX	8	Brady	(R)	R+ 19.3	R+ 26.7	R+ 7.4
TX	9	Green	(D)	D+ 20.7	D+ 19.8	R+ 0.9
TX	10	McCaul	(R)	R+ 12.9	R+ 12.5	D+ 0.5
TX	11	Conaway	(R)	R+ 25.3	R+ 30.7	R+ 5.4
TX	12	Granger	(R)	R+ 14.3	R+ 19.0	R+ 4.7
TX	13	Thornberry	(R)	R+ 24.8	R+ 31.2	R+ 6.4
TX	14	Paul	(R)	R+ 14.3	R+ 20.5	R+ 6.3
TX	15	Hinojosa	(D)	D+ 2.7	D+ 0.8	R+ 1.9
TX	16	Reyes	(D)	D+ 9.0	D+ 7.5	R+ 1.4
TX	17	Edwards	(D)	R+ 17.8	R+ 22.5	R+ 4.8
TX	18	Jackson-Lee	(D)	D+ 23.2	D+ 21.2	R+ 2.0
TX	19	Neugebauer	(R)	R+ 24.8	R+ 28.5	R+ 3.8
TX	20	Gonzalez	(D)	D+ 7.7	D+ 5.6	R+ 2.1
TX	21	Smith	(R)	R+ 16.3	R+ 16.0	D+ 0.3
TX	22	Olson	(R)	R+ 14.3	R+ 15.0	R+ 0.7
TX	23	Rodriguez	(D)	R+ 4.0	R+ 6.4	R+ 2.4
TX	24	Marchant	(R)	R+ 15.3	R+ 14.0	D+ 1.3
TX	25	Doggett	(D)	D+ 1.7	D+ 3.1	D+ 1.4
TX	26	Burgess	(R)	R+ 12.3	R+ 15.5	R+ 3.2
TX	27	Ortiz	(D)	R+ 1.3	R+ 4.4	R+ 3.2
TX	28	Cuellar	(D)	R+ 0.8	R+ 2.7	R+ 1.9
TX	29	Green	(D)	D+ 7.7	D+ 5.3	R+ 2.4
TX	30	Johnson	(D)	D+ 25.7	D+ 24.8	R+ 0.9
TX	31	Carter	(R)	R+ 16.4	R+ 16.2	D+ 0.2
TX	32	Sessions	(R)	R+ 10.8	R+ 10.4	D+ 0.3
UT	1	Bishop	(R)	R+ 21.8	R+ 23.9	R+ 2.1
UT	2	Matheson	(D)	R+ 17.0	R+ 17.4	R+ 0.4
UT	3	Chaffetz	(R)	R+ 26.3	R+ 28.3	R+ 1.9
VA	1	Wittman	(R)	R+ 9.0	R+ 9.7	R+ 0.8
VA	2	Nye	(D)	R+ 5.8	R+ 7.2	R+ 1.4
VA	3	Scott	(D)	D+ 18.2	D+ 17.7	R+ 0.6
VA	4	Forbes	(R)	R+ 4.8	R+ 6.9	R+ 2.1
VA	5	Perriello	(D)	R+ 5.7	R+ 7.7	R+ 2.0
VA	6	Goodlatte	(R)	R+ 11.5	R+ 14.3	R+ 2.8
VA	7	Cantor	(R)	R+ 10.7	R+ 11.3	R+ 0.6
VA	8	Moran	(D)	D+ 13.6	D+ 13.5	R+ 0.1
VA	9	Boucher	(D)	R+ 7.4	R+ 13.8	R+ 6.4
VA	10	Wolf	(R)	R+ 5.4	R+ 4.7	D+ 0.7
VA	11	Connolly	(D)	R+ 0.8	R+ 0.1	D+ 0.7
VT	AL	Welch	(D)	D+ 9.1	D+ 10.8	D+ 1.7
WA	1	Inslee	(D)	D+ 7.7	D+ 6.5	R+ 1.2
WA	2	Larsen	(D)	D+ 2.8	D+ 0.9	R+ 1.9
WA	3	Baird	(D)	D+ 0.2	R+ 2.7	R+ 2.9
WA	4	Hastings	(R)	R+ 13.2	R+ 15.4	R+ 2.2
WA	5	McMorris	(R)	R+ 7.0	R+ 9.3	R+ 2.3
WA	6	Dicks	(D)	D+ 5.7	D+ 2.4	R+ 3.2
WA	7	McDermott	(D)	D+ 30.3	D+ 29.0	R+ 1.2
WA	8	Reichert	(R)	D+ 2.5	D+ 0.9	R+ 1.7
WA	9	Smith	(D)	D+ 5.6	D+ 2.9	R+ 2.7
WI	1	Ryan	(R)	R+ 2.3	R+ 4.9	R+ 2.6
WI	2	Baldwin	(D)	D+ 13.4	D+ 12.5	R+ 0.9
WI	3	Kind	(D)	D+ 2.8	D+ 1.4	R+ 1.4
WI	4	Moore	(D)	D+ 20.6	D+ 19.2	R+ 1.4
WI	5	Sensenbrenner	(R)	R+ 12.5	R+ 14.8	R+ 2.3
WI	6	Petri	(R)	R+ 4.9	R+ 6.7	R+ 1.8
WI	7	Obey	(D)	D+ 1.8	R+ 0.1	R+ 1.9
WI	8	Kagen	(D)	R+ 3.9	R+ 4.2	R+ 0.3
WV	1	Mollohan	(D)	R+ 5.6	R+ 11.5	R+ 5.9
WV	2	Capito	(R)	R+ 5.1	R+ 10.2	R+ 5.1
WV	3	Rahall	(D)	D+ 0.5	R+ 9.0	R+ 9.5
WY	AL	Lummis	(R)	R+ 19.5	R+ 22.0	R+ 2.5

The formula I used for calculating the Old and New Cook PVIs are as follows:  

Old Cook PVI = ((Bush’s 2000 two-party vote share in congressional district – Bush’s 2004 two-party vote share nationally) + (Bush’s 2004 two-party vote share in congressional district – Bush’s 2004 two-party vote share nationally))/2.  Postive numbers are Republican PVIs and negative numbers are Democratic PVIs (or you could get the same reults using the Democratic candidate’s numbers and then positive numbers would be D PVIs and negative numbers would be R PVIs).

New Cook PVI = ((Bush’s 2004 two-party vote share in congressional district – McCain’s 2008 two-party vote share nationally) + (McCain’s 2008 two-party vote share in congressional district – McCain’s 2008 two-party vote share nationally))/2.

The Cook PVI formula is very flawed, IMHO, in that part of the formula compares how results from a particular district in 2004 with how McCain did nationally in 2008.  Because McCain did much worse nationally than Bush did in 2004, this makes districts look much more Republican than they would be with a truly neutral formula (if the USA as a whole had a PVI of 0.0).  Under the Cook PVI formula, the USA as a whole had a PVI of R+0.8 for 2005-2008 and a PVI of D+2.5 currently.  This is totally screwy and defeats the purpose of the Cook PVI which is to show how much a congressional district is more democratic or republican than the nation as a whole.  To adjust for this flaw in the formula, mentally add D+2.5 to a district to see where it “really” is now, and add D+3.3 to all districts to see how much a district changed as a result of the 2008 election.