Month: November 2009

Something interesting is happening on Election Day and it was anticipated: mayor’s are being blamed for economic woes.  There is no doubt that Republicans will brag about Democratic mayoral loses come Wednesday, yet the reality is that there are even Republican mayors at risk.  Sure there are Democratic incumbents whom will be thrown out due to personal indiscretions (El Monte, CA) or absolutely horrible financial management (Portsmouth, OH), yet there will also be Democrats sidelined and blamed for the economic downturn.  There are also the bitter supporters of defeated incumbents (Harrisburg, PA) who are crossing over to the other side.  We can hardly forget the long term incumbents whom are going to be tested for the first time in years (Albany, NY and Boston, MA) and their fellow veterans whom will be relaxing at home (Minneapolis, MN and New Haven, CT).  Then there are the outgoing mayors with further political ambitions.  A party loss could hardly look good on their resume (Manchester, NH and Stamford, CT).  We cannot forget the Republicans.  To do so would be to take away much of the excitement that Republican races generate.  Utah seems to be the battleground for competitive Republican races (Provo, Saint George, South Jordan, and West Valley).  Finally, with any election we must remember the candidates that went nuts (Miami Beach, FL), the candidates that made history (York, PA), and the candidate that made history, only to drop out before the history could be realized (Annapolis, MD).  

Elections teach us that there are winners and losers and sometimes the winner is our loser.  The electorate also teaches us something about ourselves and the way the nation is progressing.  Three openly gay candidates are on the ballot (Chapel Hill, NC, Houston, TX, and Nampa, ID).  Then there is the downside, candidates whom are dividers and strike unncecessary fear (Danbury, CT and Lima, OH).  As with most races, there is the money and the outsiders (Santa Barbara, CA) and the influence they bring to the race.  Big cities are where dreams are made, yet today, mid-size cities will be where history is made.  Regardless if you’re on the left side of the bridge or the right, the fact remains that you’re on the bridge (sorry to Seattle and Vancouver, WA for such analogy) and being on the bridge is all that matters.

So let me introduce you to the mayoral races shaping the landscape today.  Yes, I have predicted Democratic losses, yet there are also a few Republican losses in the bag as well.  Predicting races is a science, yet turnout is part of that science and without turnout the hypothesis itself can be proven wrong.  Comment as you like, but for the most part follow these races tonight and see how many incumbents actually lose from this group (I predict 6 to 8) and how many seats change hands.    

Seats Most Likely to Switch (Dem to Rep) – Cedar Rapids (IA), Longmont (CO), Stamford (CT), Tulsa (OK), and Woonsocket (RI)

Seats Most Likely to Switch (Rep to Dem) – Lawrence (MA) and Middletown (CT)

Seats In Danger of Switching (Dem to Rep) – Chapel Hill (NC), Harrisburg (PA), Lynn (MA), Quincy (MA), and Santa Barbara (CA)

Seats In Danger of Switching (Dem to Ind) – Fall River (MA)

Seats In Danger of Switching (Rep to Dem) – Altoona (PA), Charlotte (NC), Manchester (NH), New Britain (CT), Norwalk (CT), and Saint Petersburg (FL)

Seats In Danger of Switching (Rep to Ind) – Great Falls (MT)

Normally Safe/Entrenched Incumbent (Dem) – Dayton (OH) and Lima (OH)

Dem Inter-Party Challenge (Incumbent in Danger) – Albany (NY), Boston (MA), El Monte (CA), Hawthorne (CA), Portsmouth (OH), Roseville (MI), Vancouver (WA), and Worcester (MA)

Rep Inter-Party Challenge (Incumbent in Danger) – Roswell (GA), South Jordan (UT), and Yuma (AZ)

Competitive Inter-Party Race (Dems) – Atlanta (GA), Houston (TX), Pontiac (MI), Seattle (WA), Tacoma (WA), Toledo (OH), and Waterloo (IA)

Competitive Inter-Party Race (Rep) – Billings (MT), Bremerton (WA), Centennial (CO), Greeley (CO), Provo (UT), and West Jordan (UT)

Incumbents Defeated in Primary (Dems) – Albuquerque (NM), Fall River (MA), Harrisburg (PA), Pontiac (MI), Prescott (AZ), and Seattle (WA)

Toss Up

Altoona, PA (Pop: 46,144) – Democratic councilman Bill Schirf is running on his conservative voting record, a must in a city such as Altoona.  Republican candidate Bob Johnson withdrew in August for medical reasons, months after winning the primary.  The Republican replacement is businessman Jan Mills.  Schirf is a solid Democratic candidate, yet this is also territory favorable to Republicans.

Chapel Hill, NC (Pop: 52,542) – Democratic councilman Mark Kleinschmidt is openly gay and favored by progressives.  Republican Augustus Cho, the third option, is the most extreme candidate on the ballot, and should have little effect.  Republican councilman Matt Czajkowski is the biggest threat in retaining the seat.  Czajkowski talks about fiscal matters, which should appeal to Republicans and independents.  Kleinschmidt is too focused on social justice issues, which are important, but not the main focus during an economic downturn.  Kleinschmidt is playing to the base in hopes of getting a strong turnout, yet Czajkowski is running the more sensible campaign.  The race would be ranked Leans Republican, if not for the nature of the city itself.  

Charlotte, NC (Pop: 687,456) – As the population continues to grow the demographics favorable to Democrats also grow.  This leads us to a very competitive race featuring two totally different nominees.  Republican John Lassiter, a city councilman, is considered to share the same views as outgoing mayor Pat McCrory.  Democrat Anthony Foxx, also a city councilman, seems to fit the mold of the “new” Charlotte.  If elected, Foxx would be the first African-American mayor in twenty-two years.  Providing much support for Foxx is the African-American community, whom compose close to half the electorate.  However, Foxx’s support goes beyond that and into white middle class neighborhoods as well.  Support for Lassiter is strongest in places such as South Charlotte, where the wealthy and elite reside.  The winner will be decided based on turnout and based on early voting: South Charlotte is ahead.  Not only has this been an expensive race for a place such as Charlotte, it will also be an extremely close race in the end.  Let’s hope that tea-baggers, led by nuts such as Congresswoman Myrick, aren’t provided a victory.  

Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK (Pop: 97,970) – Democrat Luke Hopkins is facing off against Republican Tammie Wilson.  Both serve on the borough assembly.  The race is essentially for the position of county executive (outside Alaska).  Both parties are fighting hard for the position.  Wilson is another Sarah Palin in the making.

Fall River, MA (Pop: 90,931) – The Democratic incumbent, Ralph Correia, was defeated in the primary.  Independenct councilwoman Cathy Ann Viveiros finished first in the primary ahead of both Correia and second place finisher, Democratic attorney William Flanagan.  Democrats and labor unions have lined up behind Flanagan.  The real unknown is which candidate Correia supporters will embrace.  

Great Falls, MT (Pop: 59,251) – Republican city commissioner Bill Bronson is facing off against Independent Michael Winters.  Bronson is both the establishment and better funded candidate.  However, Winter’s grassroots campaigning and strong primary showing, finishing second, when most didn’t view him as being competitive, are assets in the home stretch.  The city tilts slightly toward Democrats, but is also known for close elections.

Lynn, MA (Pop: 86,957) – Democrat Edward Clancy is a 8 year incumbent.  Republican Judith Flanagan Kennedy ran as a write-in candidate during the primary, finishing first.  The third place finisher has endorsed Clancy.  Getting defeated in a primary by a write-in candidate may be hard for Clancy to overcome, especially now that Kennedy is on the ballot.

Middletown, CT (Pop: 48,030) – Republican Sebastian Giuliano is a 4 year incumbent.  Democrat Dan Drew is running a strong grassroots campaign in this strong Democratic city.

Quincy, MA (Pop: 92,339) – Democrat Thomas Koch is a first term incumbent.  Republican William Phelan is back to reclaim the seat which Koch took from him two years earlier.

Saint Petersburg, FL (Pop: 245,314) – The race features two former city council members.  Democrat Kathleen Ford and Republican Bill Foster.  However, both have been reaching out to groups with opposing interests.  Ford has been reaching out to progressives and fiscal conservatives.  Foster has been reaching out to business leaders and African-Americans.  Both have had their flaws throughout the race, including controversial remarks.  Ford, who has been running mostly a grassroots campaign, must hope for a strong African-American turnout if she expects to win.  A conservative group inspired by Glenn Beck and calling itself the Pinellas Patriots, has endorsed Foster.  

Santa Barbara, CA (Pop: 86,093) –  The real race is between two city council members.  Democrat Helene Schneider is favorite of progressives.  Republican Dale Francisco is being funded by a Texas developer in attacking Schneider.  Another Democrat, Stephen Cushman is also on the ballot.  High turnout is expected.

Waterloo, IA (Pop: 66,662) – One race with three solid candidates, two of which share only two things in common: job position and last name.  Democrat Reggie Schmitt and Republican Steve Schmitt (no relation) are both city councilmen.  The third candidate is Democratic businessman Buck Clark, who received both the endorsement and campaign appearance of Vice-President Biden’s sister.      

Leans Republican

Longmont, CO (Pop: 85,928) – Democrat Roger Lange is a first term incumbent.  Republican Bryan Baum is now favored to take the seat.  Jeff Thompson, a fellow Democrat, dropped out of the race two weeks ago, yet the damage to Lange has already been done.  

Manchester, NH (Pop: 108,586) – Republican State Senator Ted Gatsas is in a close battle with Democratic Alderman Mark Roy.  The third place primary finisher was Bobby Stephen, a former State Senator, and considered by many to be a conservative Democrat.  Roy would have to win over 80% of Stephen supporters, not an easy feat.  A Republican loss would be embarassing to Frank Guinta, the current outgoing mayor and highly coveted Republican challenger against Rep. Shea-Porter.

New Britain, CT (Pop: 70,486) – Republican Timothy Stewart is a 6 year incumbent.  Democratic State Representative Tim O’Brien hopes to retake this Democratic city.  O’Brien would need decent turnout from the minority community, which composes 45% of the electorate.  Being an off year election, and the likelihood of low turnout, Stewart has the edge.

Stamford, CT (Pop: 119,303) – Democrat David Martin is President of the Board of Representatives.  The real problem for Martin is overcoming Dan Malloy, the outgoing mayor and leading gubernatorial candidate.  Martin understands the liability and has steered clear of Malloy.  Republican Michael Pavia isn’t exactly a strong candidate, yet the Malloy-Martin connection appears difficult to overcome.

Woonsocket, RI (Pop: 43,268) – Former Democratic State Representative Todd Brien is facing off against Republican City Council President Leo Fontaine.  Brien has twice ran for mayor unsuccesfully.  The candidates are battling it out and hoping to win over supporters of Steven Lima, who finished third in the primary.  Outgoing mayor Susan Menard is hardly popular and has defeated Brien twice before.  This is likely to be the third defeat for Brien, courteousy of Menard’s unpopularity.

Leans Democrat

Cincinnati, OH (Pop: 333,336) – Democrat Mark Mallory is a first term incumbent.  Republican Brad Wenstrup is a doctor and served in Iraq, a fact which he never fails to mention.  The main issue throughout the race is whether the city should invest in streetcars.  Mallory argues they will bring economic investment, whereas Wenstrup believes they are too costly.  Of all the larger cities, this race has been the most calm, with very few sparks.  The city itself is Democratic (the last Republican served in the early 1980’s), yet Wenstrup appears to be that one candidate that tea-baggers would celebrate for if victorious.  Mallory’s weak margin of victory on his first run, against a fellow Democrat running as an Independent, is a concern.  Just like the surprise defeat of Bart Peterson two years ago in Indianapolis, this race has the same feel to it.  Peterson was viewed as a rising star in the party and Mallory is viewed the same way.  Ironically, during the campaign, Wenstrup mentions conversations he had with the Republican mayor of Indianapolis, the one whom defeated Peterson.  If there’s a race on no radar, then this is it.

Harrisburg, PA (Pop: 47,148) – The twenty-eight year Democratic incumbent, Stephen Reed, was defeated in the primary.  Democratic City Council President Linda Thompson relied of heavy turnout from African-Americans in order to accomplish the task.  Since his loss, Reed supporters have been reluctant to support Thompson.  Republican Nevin Mindlin has been the beneficiary of these detractors.  The local newspaper, The Patriot News, summed up its endorsement best: “We Can’t Endorse Either.”  The city is heavily Democratic and majority African-American, yet without a heavy African-American turnout, Mindlin has the ability to create an upset here.

Lawrence, MA (Pop: 70,014) – Democratic State Representative William Lantigua has attacked Republican/Independent councilman David Abdoo solely on one issue: party affiliation.  Abdoo states he is a former Republican.  The city is fertile territory for Democrats, yet turnout will be key.  Lantigua finished first in the primary, but a strong turnout from a electorate which is 57% Hispanic, will be necessary for victory.

Likely Republican

Cedar Rapids, IA (Pop: 128,056) – Republican Ron Corbett is a former Speaker of the State House.  Democrat Brian Fagan is a city councilman.  The city is traditionally Democratic, yet momentum appears to be on the side of Corbett.  The last week of the campaign is arguing over the theft of campaign signs, a perfect Republican strategy, which appears to be keeping Fagan from discussing the real issues.

Danbury, CT (Pop: 79,256) – Republican Mark Boughton is a 8 year incumbent.  Boughton is a divisive and polarizing figure, especially within the immigrant community.  However, Democrats have always come up short in providing stiff competition.  Democrat Gary Goncalves will be no exception.  

Kent, WA (Pop: 83,978) – Republican Suzette Cooke is a first term incumbent.  Democrat Jim Berrios is president of the Kent School Board.  The city is two-thirds Democratic, yet Cooke appears to have won over moderate Democrats.  The recent suicide of her husband is also likely to bring over sympathetic voters.  A Republican winning in a strong Democratic city is rare, yet this is one exception.

Norwalk, CT (Pop: 83,185) – Republican Dick Moccia is 4 year incumbent.  Democratic councilman Steve Serasis is running on an increase in crime, an issue which Moccia disputes.  The Republican is better funded, yet if there was a surprise upset not on any radar, then this could be it.

Likely Democrat

Binghamton, NY (Pop: 44,729) – Democrat Matt Ryan is a first term incumbent.  Republican Rich David is hoping to upset Ryan in this Democratic city, yet complicating that feat is Independent candidate Douglas Walter Drazen, running on a fiscal conservative platform.  Ryan faced a very competitive primary, yet has since been endorsed by his former opponent.  The main issue has been cuts to the public safety budget in order to keep the tax rate increase lower than would have been needed.  Demographics favor Ryan, yet there are clear signs of eroding support.  

Dayton, OH (Pop: 154,200) – Democrat Rhine McLin is an 8 year incumbent.  Gary Leitzell reminds people that he’s an Independent, yet he’s been endorsed by the Montgomery County Republicans.  Leitzell has no previous elected experience and could hardly be considered competition in most races, yet McLin hasn’t been the most effective incumbent.  The state Democratic Party is spending on the race in hopes of driving African-Americans out to vote (they compose half of the electorate).  Leitzell has been running a grassroots campaign, void of much detail on improving a deteriorating city, yet McLin has to confront astonishing facts: 41% of the population has been lost from the all time population peak of 1960, the city unemployment rate hovers around 14%, and high foreclosures are forcing banks to abandon properties outright, creating urban blight.  The only bright spot for McLin is that crime has not increased.  Demographics favor McLin, yet Democrats should have considered a replacement candidate.  The fact that the state party is spending against a poorly funded Leitzell must indicate they have some concerns.  

Lancaster, PA (Pop: 54,626) – Democrat Rick Gray is a first term incumbent.  Former Republican mayor Charles Smithgall, who was defeated by Gray four years ago, is back for a rematch.  Originally, Republicans did not have a candidate to challenge Gray, yet Smithgall decided to accept nomination after receiving 153 write-in votes during the primary.  Unlike 2005, Smithgall doesn’t seem to be putting much effort toward retaking the office.

Lima, OH (Pop: 37,829) – David Berger is a 20 year incumbent.  Republican Dan Beck, former sheriff of Allen County, is running a fear mongering campaign.  Beck is an anti-illegal immigrant candidate running on crime and urban blight.  Berger is running on job creation.  However, there is no doubt that incumbency is not an asset this year, especially with the higher than national average unemployment rate.  Assisting Berger is the liberal leanings of the city and the narrow majority carried during the primary.

San Bernardino, CA (Pop: 198,580) – Democrat Pat Morris is a first term incumbent.  The race is a rematch from 2005.  Republican city attorney Jim Penman has also raised the same issues from the last election: crime and graffiti.

Syracuse, NY (Pop: 138,068) – Democratic councilwoman Stephanie Miner is in a heated battle with Republican Steve Kimatian and Conservative Otis Jennings.  Under normal circumstances, the Conservative candidate would be taking from the Republican, yet Jennings is an exception.  He has been grounding himself in the African-American community and reaching out forcefully.  Miner cannot afford to lose an important voting bloc, since it could be substantial enough to give Kimatian a narrow victory.  Due to the nature of the city and its Democratic roots Miner has the edge, yet a surprise upset could occur, courteousy of Jennings.

Safe Democrat

Albany, NY (Pop: 93,539) – Democrat Gerald Jennings is a 16 year incumbent.  The biggest threat for Jennings does not come from Republican Nathan Lebron, rather it comes from Working Families candidate Corey Ellis, a Democratic councilman.  In the Democratic primary Ellis took 44% of the vote against Jennings.  The closeness of the primary has only made Ellis work harder.  He is running an underfunded grassroots campaign and the possibility of upsetting Jennings is very likely.  

Allentown, PA (Pop: 107,250) – Democrat Ed Pawlowski is a first term incumbent.  Republican councilman Tony Phillips almost dropped out of the race after a sexually raved cyber chat became public.  Phillips is African-American and may be able to chip into some of the African-American and Puerto Rican electorate, yet making a dent is not practical.

Annapolis, MD (Pop: 36,524) – Democrat Josh Cohen finished second in the primary, yet became the replacement candidate after primary winner Zine Pierre dropped out.  Republican Dave Cordle has no hope in this solid Democratic city.  

Asheville, NC (Pop: 74,543) – Democrat Terry Bellamy is a first term incumbent.  Republican Robert Edwards sums it up best: he only ran because he saw that no one else was going to challenge Bellamy.  Republicans do not seem to be seriously contesting the race.

Atlanta, GA (Pop: 537,958) – The three most viable candidates are all Democrats.  They include Councilwomen Mary Norwood and Lisa Borders, as well as former State Senator Kasim Reed.  Norwood is hoping to avoid a run-off by capturing a majority of the vote.  However, if there is a run-off, then expect Reed to join Norwood.

Atlantic City, NJ (Pop: 39,408) – Democrat Lorenzo Langford is a 5 year incumbent (non-consecutive).  The local newspaper, The Press of Atlantic City, describes the race best: None of the Above.  The city is strongly Democratic, even with light turnout, Langford should have no trouble defeating Republican Jesse Kurtz.

Auburn, WA (Pop: 55,426) – Democrat Pete Lewis is an 8 year incumbent.  Republican Councilwoman Virginia Haugen, whom is not supported by any of her fellow council members, is facing an uphill climb.  In a four way primary, Lewis came up slightly short in taking a majority of the votes.  However, Haugen’s erratic behavior, including storming out a city council meeting, are not going to help her close the gap.

Boston, MA (Pop: 609,023) – Democrat Tom Menino is a 16 year incumbent.  Democratic councilman Michael Flaherty is up against a wall.  Menino has enjoyed high approval ratings, yet there have been signs of erosion.  Menino barely took a majority of votes in the primary.  Bearing a disaster, Menino should be back.

Bozeman, MT (Pop: 39,442) – Democrat Sean Becker is facing off against tea-bag endorsed Republican Bob Chase.  Brian Leland, founder of “The Green Coalition of Gay Loggers for Jesus” is running as a write-in candidate.  The city is considered Democratic friendly and Becker should be safe.

Brockton, MA (Pop: 93,007) – Democrat James Harrington is a 4 year incumbent.  Democrat Linda Balzotti will have a difficult time denying Harrington re-election, especially considering that he took 57% of the vote against her in the primary.

Cleveland, OH (Pop: 433,748) – Democrat Frank Jackson is a first term incumbent.  Former Democratic councilman Bill Patmon has little hope, considering that Jackson took 70% of the vote during the recent primary.

Dearborn, MI (Pop: 86,477) – Democrat Jack O’Reilly is a first term incumbent.  For a city that is struggling economically, one would expect a serious competitor, yet Independent Michael Prus is that competition, albeit hardly serious competition.

Detroit, MI (Pop: 912,062) – Democrat David Bing is a first term incumbent.  Democrat Tom Barrow, whom was convicted and imprisoned for federal tax evasion and fraud, is hoping for a miraculous upset.  However, considering that Bing came extremely close to the three-fourth’s mark in the primary, hope seems unlikely for Barrow.

El Monte, CA (Pop: 121,791) – The last thing a financially struggling city needs is for their mayor to be drunk at a party, grope his girlfriend in public (while the wife’s at home), and then get arrested for domestic violence.  Democrat Ernie Gutierrez is a first term incumbent being challenged by prosecutor Andre Quintero, also a Democrat.  Anyone and everyone, including labor unions, have come out strongly for Quintero.  This is one incumbent who will be packing up shortly after the polls close.  

Erie, PA (Pop: 103,817) – Democrat Joseph Sinnott is a first term incumbent.  Republican Jack Anderson is a five time mayoral candidate.  

Everett, WA (Pop: 98,212) – Democrat Ray Stephanson is a six-year incumbent.  There is a small challenge for the incumbent, in the form of Democrat Jim Johnson, yet considering that the party and unions (this is Boeing territory) are completely behind Stephanson, it’s fair to say that Johnson is no serious threat.

Fayetteville, NC (Pop: 174,091) – Democrat Tony Chavonne is a 4 year incumbent.  Republican Bob White is merely on the ballot.  Chavonne took two-thirds of the vote total during the primary, essentially making re-election a given.

Greensboro, NC (Pop: 250,642) – Democrat Yvonne Johnson is a first term incumbent.  Republican Bill Knight poses no serious challenge.

Hawthorne, CA (Pop: 84,305) – Democrat Larry Guidi is a 16 year incumbent.  Democratic councilman Daniel Juarez is depending on high turnout from the Hispanic community.

Houston, TX (Pop: 2,242,193) – Four candidates are vying to succeed outgoing Democratic mayor Bill White.  The real race is between wealthy Democratic city councilman Peter Brown and Democratic City Controller Annise Parker, an openly gay candidate.  Former Democratic City Attorney Gene Locke and Republican Harris County School Board Trustee Roy Morales are also in the running.  Locke should be able to take in a sizeable number of African-Americans, whereas Morales may have the same effect with Hispanics, unaware of his conservative extremism.  Expect Brown and Parker to meet once again in a run-off.

Lansing, MI (Pop: 113,968) – Democrat Virg Bernero is a first term incumbent.  Democratic councilwoman Carol Wood finished second in the primary.  Third place finisher Charles Ford has endorsed Bernero.

Miami Beach, FL (Pop: 84,633) – Democrat Matti Herrera Bower is a first term incumbent.  Democrat Laura Rivero Levey presents a small challenge.  Bower is popular with the gay community, yet Levey should appeal to the Jewish community.  The ballot also includes Raphael Herman, who was briefly questioned by the Secret Service after showing up at City Hall bloody and screaming, demanding a meeting with Obama.

Minneapolis, MN (Pop: 382,605) – Democrat R.T. Rybak is a 8 year incumbent.  The competition is undescribable.

Murray, UT (Pop: 46,201) – Democrat Daniel Snarr is a 12 year incumbent.  Councilwoman Krista Dunn, also a Democrat, is advocating change.  Coincidentally, it was Snarr, ten years earlier, who assisted her in a campaign for a city council seat.  In the recent primary, Snarr finished first with a majority of the votes, thereby providing him with another likely term.

New Bedford, MA (91,365) – Democrat Scott Lang is a 4 year incumbent.  Lang secured three-fourths of the vote total in the primary, an early indicator that Democrat Fernando Coelho has no chance.

New Haven, CT (Pop: 123,669) – Democrat John DeStefano is a 16 year incumbent.  The competition is best described as pathetic.  

Pittsburgh, PA (Pop: 310,037) – Democrat Luke Ravenstahl is a first term incumbent.  Republican/Independent Kevin Acklin and Independent Franco Harris are in the running for second place loser.  Both have sought to present Ravenstahl as corrupt, yet the tactic hasn’t been working.

Pontiac, MI (Pop: 66,095) – The Democratic incumbent, Clarence Phillips, was defeated in the primary.  Democrat Leon Jukowski finished first followed by Democrat Sandy-Michael McDonald.  The city is on the verge of bankruptcy, yet Phillips is bitter about his loss, endorsing fellow African-American McDonald.  Half of the electorate is African-American.

Portsmouth, OH (Pop: 20,297) – Democrat Jim Kalb is a 6 year incumbent.  The city is on the verge of bankruptcy and the mayor is advocating an income tax increase.  The rate of unemployment is at 12%, higher than the national average.  Local Democrats have all but abandoned Kalb and are endorsing newcomer Jane Murray, also running as a Democrat.  Union support is evenly split amongst the two.  In the primary, Murray took more than twice the number of votes received by Kalb.  The likelihood of Kalb being re-elected is zero.  

Roseville, MI (Pop: 46,782) – Democrat John Chirkun was appointed mayor in January.  The main issue is blight, particularly what to do with foreclosed properties.  Union worker and fellow Democrat Ron Blazejewski is running a grassroot campaign.

Saint Paul, MN (Pop: 279,590) – Democrat Chris Coleman is a first term incumbent.  Republican Eva Ng is hardly a threat.

Seattle, WA (Pop: 598,541) – The main issue on the ballot is the future of the Alaska Way Viaduct.  Democratic activist Mike McGinn has based his entire campaign on opposing the proposed tunnel which would replace the Viaduct.  However, recently he showed tacit support for the tunnel after defeated incumbent Greg Nickels received city council approval to move forward with the city-state cost sharing agreement.  McGinn indicated he still opposes the tunnel, yet he also wanted to respect the decision of the city council.  Challenging McGinn is fellow Democrat Joe Mallahan, considered a wealthy activist by McGinn supporters.  A heated primary had McGinn finishing first, closely followed by Mallahan and the defeated Nickels.  However, heading into the finish the momentum appears to be with Mallahan.  He has the most support from labor unions and Democratic leaders.  McGinn’s supporters are mostly environmentalists and progressives.  Considering his surprise first place finish in the primary, it’s hard to say that Mallahan has any advantage over McGinn.  The grassroot campaign undertaken by McGinn is very strong, therefore Mallahan is pushing for turnout to be on his side this round.

Southfield, MI (Pop: 75,392) – Democrat Brenda Lawrence is an 8 year incumbent.  Democratic councilwoman Sylvia Jordan has a heavy task ahead, considering that Lawrence captured more than three-fourth’s of the vote during the primary.

Springfield, MA (Pop: 150,640) – Democrat Domenic Sarno is a first term incumbent.  Crime has steadily increased in the minority-majority city, an issue which Bud Williams, a Democratic city councilman, hopes to accentuate.  

Sterling Heights, MI (Pop: 127,160) – Democrat Richard Notte is a 16 year incumbent.  Notte had a strong first place primary finish, thereby making Republican David Magliulo weak competition.

Tacoma, WA (Pop: 197,181) – Two Democrats are battling it out to lead the city.  Businessman Jim Merritt is the moderate candidate, whereas Councilwoman Marilyn Strickland is favored by progressives.  Support from the Democratic establishment is equally divided amongst both candidates.

Toledo, OH (Pop: 293,201) – Four years ago, Democrat Keith Wikowski, former President of the Toledo School Board, finished third in the primary.  This year Wikowski and Democrat Mike Bell are battling it out for support from the African-American community.  The 1% difference in separation during the primary is an indication that the race will be an all out battle for turnout.  The city is a quarter African-American and Bell has endorsements from several labor unions.    

Vancouver, WA (Pop: 163,186) – Democrat Royce Pollard is a 14 year incumbent.  The race has become the costliest in the city’s history as a battle ensues over a replacement for the Columbia River Crossing Bridge.  Pollard has placed his mayorship on the successful completion of the project, arguing that it must include a light rail train.  City Councilman Tim Leavitt is a conservative Democrat, arguing that the tolls endorsed by Pollard, in order to fund costs, are wrong and would cost taxpayers thousands annually.  Unions are coming out hard in support of Pollard, whereas fiscal conservatives are embracing Leavitt.  Many have sought to brand Leavitt a Republican, due to his past support for Dino Rossi, yet Leavitt has support within key Democratic groups, including Hispanics, three unions, and several prominent Democratic leaders.  Pollard is in serious trouble and the state Democratic Party is coalescing around him strongly.

Waterbury, CT (Pop: 107,037) – Democrat Michael Jarjura is an 8 year incumbent.  Second to Lieberman, Jarjura is highly despised by his own party statewide, partially due to a successful write-in campaign in 2005, following a primary loss against a fellow Democrat.  Independent John Theriault shouldn’t interfere with his re-election, yet it should be noted that Waterbury is the only city statewide where the Independent Party is considered competitive.

Wilmington, NC (Pop: 100,192) – Democrat Bill Saffo is a 3.5 year incumbent.  Republican’s erred greatly with Bill Knight.  He’s been spending more time explaining how he reached number six in wives and suing the local newspaper for the identity of the individual that posted negative information about him online.

Worcester, MA (Pop: 175,011) – Democrat Konnie Lukes is a first term incumbent.  By most measures, Lukes is a fiscally conservative Democrat in a liberal city, a matter which does not go over well with her predecessor, current Lieutenant Governor Tim Murray.  Democratic councilman Joe O’Brien is being supported heavily by Murray and fellow progressives.

York, PA (Pop: 40,097) – The only given is that forty years after a race riot, the city will have its first African-American mayor.  Democrat Kim Bracey is heavily favored over Republican Wendell Banks.

Safe Republican

Billings, MT (Pop: 103,994) – Republican councilman Richard Clark is being aggressively challenged by Republican Tom Hanel, a former city Police Lieutenant.

Bremerton, WA (Pop: 36,006) – A primary race which featured five candidates has now been cut down to two Republicans.  City councilman Will Maupin will face off against former Kitsap County Commissioner Patty Lent.  Mike Shepherd, the candidate that came in third place, has endorsed neither, arguing that they are beholden to developers.  Maupin appears to be the more moderate alternative in the race and has even won endorsement from the former Democratic mayor.  The race should be close, yet Maupin appears to have a slight edge.

Centennial, CO (Pop: 99,680) – Republican councilman Todd Miller and fellow Republican Cathy Noon, a businesswoman, are hoping to be the second mayor of Colorado’s newest city.

Greeley, CO (Pop: 91,492) – Former Republican State Senator Tom Norton and Greeley Councilman Ed Phillipsen, also a Republican, are battling it out.  Norton is endorsed by the far right movement.

Hialeah, FL (Pop: 210,542) – Republican State Representative Julio Robaina is being challenged by fellow Republican Dr. Santiago Cardenas.  

Miami, FL (Pop: 413,201) – Republican councilman Tomas Regalado is attacking his fellow Republican councilman Joe Sanchez rather easily.

Nampa, ID (Pop: 80,362) – Republican Tom Dale is an 8 year incumbent.  Republican Jim Dorsey is more of a thorn than a credible opponent.  Allegations of sexual harassment and an out of court settlement with the city have hurt more than helped.  Coincidentally, both the mayor and Dorsey own competing hamburger joints.  The Democrats have a candidate who has no hope in this conservative city.  Melissa Sue Robinson is a recent transplant, having lived less than a year in the city, yet what hurts more is that Robinson is transgender.  

New York, NY (Pop: 8,363,710) – Independent Michael Bloomberg is an 8 year incumbent.  Comptroller Bill Thompson is as equally weak as Fernando Ferrer, the Democrat Bloomberg defeated four years earlier.  The Bronx will be the only consolation prize Thompson takes home.

Novi, MI (Pop: 54,054) – Republican David Landry is a 4 year incumbent.  Former Republican councilwoman Laura Lorenzo is running an uphill campaign.  

Orem, UT (Pop: 93,250) – Republican Jerry Washburn is a 10 year incumbent.  Republican Philip Hornberger is running on a strong conservative platform, yet the challenge is not serious.  Washburn took more than three-fourths of the vote in the primary.  

Palmdale, CA (Pop: 143,197) – Republican James Ledford is a first term incumbent.  This is a repeat from 2005 when Ledford took 80% of the vote against Democrat Desmond Kester.

Provo, UT (Pop: 118,581) – Republican State Representative Steve Clark is in a heated race with fellow Republican/former Democrat John Curtis.  Ironically, Curtis ran for State Senate in 2000 as a Democrat, losing overwhelmingly to popular State Senator Curt Bramble.  This year Bramble is endorsing his former opponent.  In the primary, Curtis finished four percentage points ahead of Clark.  Realizing the closeness of the race, Clark has begun to portray Curtis as a Democrat masquerading as a Republican in the conservative city.  

Riverside, CA (Pop: 295,357) – Republican Ron Loveridge is a 16 year incumbent.  Art Gage is a former Republican councilman.

Roswell, GA (Pop: 87,657) – Republican Jere Wood is a 12 year incumbent.  Two Republican members of the city council are hoping to dethrone him.  Lori Henry states she is the most conservative candidate in the race, whereas David Tolleson seems to be the most formible opponent.  A run-off is likely.

Saint George, UT (Pop: 72,718) – Republican Daniel McArthur is a 16 year incumbent.  Perennial Republican candidate Ed Baca, an anti-illegal immigrationist, is endorsed by the Saint George Tea Party Against Amnesty.  Coincidentally, two years earlier, Baca and his fellow anti-illegal slate of candidates, failed to win a single seat on the city council.  McArthur took a majority of the vote during the primary and should be safe for re-election.

Sandy, UT (Pop: 96,660) – Republican Tom Dolan is a 16 year incumbent.  Constitution Party State Vice-Chair Dave Perry provides marginal competition.  The motto, adopted by Perry, sums it up best: “Honor God…Defend the Family…Fortify for the Future…”  One must wonder if one of the Branch Davidian members escaped from Waco.  

South Jordan, UT (Pop: 51,131) – Republican Kent Money is an 8 year incumbent.  Republican newcomer Aaron Osmond hopes to upset the establishment candidate.  The Republican battle should be a close one.

Taylorsville, UT (Pop: 58,785) – Republican Russ Wall is a first term incumbent.  Rebekah Whyte, a Republican who wants to fire the police chief, is facing an uphill climb.  Her main argument is that the police are too quick in passing out tickets for ordinance violations, yet slow in responding to emergency calls.

West Jordan, UT (Pop: 104,447) – Republican councilwoman Melissa Johnson and businesswoman Irene Casper, also a Republican, are hoping to become the first female mayor of the city.  A majority of the city council is supporting Casper.  Johnson is touting support from ulta-conservative Congressman Chaffetz.

West Valley, UT (Pop: 123,447) – Republican councilman Mike Winder is facing off against Republican (RINO) Kevin Fayles, spokesman of Envision Utah.  Winder has the backing of Governor Herbert, yet Fayles has the backing of recently appointed Lieutenant Governor Greg Bell, a moderate Republican.  During the primary, Winder took three-fourths of the vote, essentially guaranteeing him a safe finish.  Ironically, the race has turned to issues such as gay parades and gay benefits, ideas which Fayles is comfortable advocating, earning him the endorsement of Equality Utah.

Yuma, AZ (Pop: 90,041) – Republican Larry Nelson is an 8 year incumbent.  Al Krieger is a former Republican councilman.

Seeing as how there is a very well done post on the most interesting Senatorial Races of the last half century, I’d like to add my thoughts on the ten most interesting Gubernatorial races.

1. Douglas Wilder’s victory in Virginia, which is used as the infamous example of the Bradley Effect. Truthfully Wilder got hit hard late in the campaign about his very strong pro-choice views and the Republican GOTV effort was very good. Still this was a landmark election. Now Wilder’s term in office and efforts since are not the best, Wilder slashed higher education funding rather than raise taxes, but generally put forth good policies.

2. George Bush’s 1994 victory in Texas. This still surprises me when I read up on it, and it cuts me right in the chest that Democrats might have had an opportunity to end Bush’s political career and we would never have had a Bush Presidency if perhaps Richards had taken the campaign a little more seriously. Still for all the talk about Chafee losing in 2006 pales in comparison to Richards, who had an approval rating of more than 70% and lost. A lot of it falls on her, though she made honest mistakes. Her wisecracking debates with Bush, and seeming dismissal of him make complete sense to me, as an informed voter looking at an experienced and competent Governor with a long record of service mockingly pointing out her opponent is a privileged rich kid with no experience in Government. However at the end of the day Texas voters didn’t feel that way and they gave it, for some unknown and unfathomable reason, to Bush over the truly wonderful woman that Anne Richards was.

3. Minnesota’s 1998 Gubernatorial campaign wasn’t supposed to be a mess. Two straightforward candidates, turncoat Democrat Norm Coleman and Hubert Humphrey III. One was Mayor of St. Paul, and the other the son of the legendary Senator and state Attorney General for two decades in his own right. Humphrey won the fragmented primary 3:1 without much harsh feelings and Coleman was unopposed. Now where in this picture an opening was given to a virtually unfunded, mid-size suburban city Mayor and former Pro-Wrestler, (who talks and looks like a former pro-wrestler), to come and win the election is something that I still cannot see. All that’s apparent is that Ventura won sweeping the Twin cities and their suburbs and virtually all of central Minnesota, winning mostly the Republican areas. Its still a miracle really that he won with only 300k to spend on TV ads against two candidates of that caliber. But we all know the story, incompetent wrestler, (who by the way had supporting roles beside Schwarzenegger in Predator and The Running Man, coincidence?), but Ventura is a guy it’s hard for me not to like, I do kind of, (feeling ashamed here), enjoy his off-color and tell it as it is remarks on many issues, and I can appreciate many of his views on social issues, Religion, but at the end of the day he’s a gadfly at the same level as Kinky Friedman. That being said I’d almost vote for any candidate that comes up with a saying like, “He ain’t Kinky, he’s my Governor.”

4. CA Gov Recall 2003: I can’t think of any election that will go down etched in popular culture more than Arnold Schwarzenegger, the movie star, defeating the hapless and pathetic Cruz Bustamante to become Governor of California. The jokes it inspired and place it has in both satire and political memory are not likely to be soon gone. Of course California will not soon be recovering from the Gubernatorial Tenure of the Governator, who true to his name, has terminated the state of California in accordance with his programming.

5. 2002 CA Gov Election: I find this one equally interesting, Gray Davis spending millions on what was perhaps the dirtiest and most despicable political move I’ve ever seen from a Democrat; he blitzed the state with 7 million dollars of campaign ads supporting the conservative challenger of Richard Riordan. However, for all his criticism, Gray Davis was not a bad governor, and at one point was posting massive approval ratings and in a similar situation to Arnold they collapsed during budgetary deficits when the dot com bubble collapse, again a situation where Proposition 13 and California’s anti-tax elements continue to hamper that state’s government. Davis’ only other mistake was his mishandling the electrical shortages and appearing too preoccupied with fundraising and securing his own reelection; in the end he spent, I believe, 100,000,000 to secure 47% of the vote over a hard-right candidate.

6. Washington Governor, 2004: This is another race I find interesting if only because I can’t see what a liberal state like Washington sees in Dino Rossi, I mean the guy is a virtual McDonnell without that level of Christian Fundamentalism. He’s a sleazy businessman, a sleazier politician, and he holds highly conservative positions. His campaign was propped out by Right-wing groups dumping millions into advertisements in the state. I can only say that Christine lost the election more than Rossi won it, however she did still hold on by edge of her teeth, winning by 134 votes out of nearly 3 million cast, one of the closest elections I can think of in modern times. Moving on from the ridiculous claims that King County stole the election by noticing during the manual recount that correct protocol was not followed with a batch of 700+ absentee ballots which had eligible signatures and were valid votes, something Washington Republicans swear by, Gregoire has been a very good Governor in this outsider’s opinion, at least in her first term she was very active at addressing issues and introducing progressive reforms.

7. 2003 Louisiana Election: An interesting campaign. Of course the white, pro–business Mayor of New Orleans, Ray Nagin, (who would later change to run as the black candidate against Mitch Landrieu when it suited him), endorsed Bobby Jindall, as did the normally Democratic Times-Picayune. To the disappointment of most dedicated, real Democrats in Louisiana, Kathleen Blanco beat Attorney General Richard Ieyoub, (who is Syrian, not Cajun), by 17,000 votes to be the Democratic standard bearer in the run off. Ieyoub would have been a far better Governor.

Of course in what is the interesting storyline the highly conservative Blanco won in an upset. It was finally an incident when racism bit Republicans in the butt in the South, and the utterly incompetent, (but much beloved for his perceived but non-existent non-corruptness), Mike Foster’s handpicked and groomed young successor, Bobby Jindall defeated for Governor. When I look at the map of Blanco’s victory I have to stop and make sure New Orleans is blue and I’m not looking at the Republican map with an inverted color. She won virtually all of North Louisiana, including 80% McCain and Bush parishes like Grant, LaSalle, and West Feliciana. Racism in rural north Louisiana created a big upset as Blanco coasted to an easy seven point victory in completely unique political map for a competitive LA election, as New Orleans and other Democratic strongholds voted with virtually every rural county in the state to beat Jindall.

Of course Blanco showed herself and in a disgrace to the type of campaign strategies Democrats should be using, her campaign doctored its TV ad photos of Jindall making him look much darker than he actually is and trying to make him look black to low information North Louisiana voters. It worked. Of course Blanco went on to become a popular governor, with approval ratings in the upper fifties until Katrina and she was ridiculed for the ineptitude, by and large, of Ray Nagin and the rest of the impossibly corrupt New Orleans Political machinery and FEMA. In strange turn around Republican Governor Haley Barbour was hailed as a leader and brilliant organizer in dealing with Mississippi’s problems and his previously double digit negatives became double digit positives that carried him to reelection. I always find these storylines interesting; the National did find it very important at the time to constantly temper any criticism of Bush by noting that Louisiana had a Democratic Governor, as if trying to shift blame on Blanco, and a Democratic Mayor of New Orleans. Of course that’s if you can consider a Republican who switched parties to run and was funded by primarily white business interests, a Democrat.

8. GA-Gov 2006: Poor Roy Barnes, he wasn’t a bad Governor, he just screwed up. His support of the Northern Arc destroyed his showing in the Atlanta suburbs and his plans to redesign the state flag among the general 2002 wave flattened his percentages in the in the rural southern counties that used to make up Georgia Democrats’ statewide coalitions. It was an upset and in the end it wasn’t even that close, at a five point margin. Following that four Democrats defected in the State Senator and handed over control to the good ole Sunday School Teacher Sunny Perdue.

9. Oklahoma 2002: If there was a bigger surprise in 2002 than Barnes losing it was that 39 year old State Senator Brad Henry beat Steve Largent with the help of a huge performance by libertarian candidate, (and former Republican candidate), Gary Richardson, to become Governor of Oklahoma. Henry’s campaign is a combination of all the flukes a Democrat would need to win. He went traveling in the back country rural areas, he benefited from a wave of ire at the banning of chicken fighting which turned out a Democratic margin in the state’s rural areas, and he got the backing of Barry Switzer. Won’t happen again, and Henry established himself as a highly popular Governor by taking nearly no risks and attempting to appease conservative platforms.

Won’t happen again even though Democrats hold every statewide office coming off an impressive string of 2006 statewide victories, while they were losing the State Senate much to mine and others surprise.

10. Wyoming 2002: I’m not going to say it surprises me as much as some people. Three of the last four governor’s of Wyoming have been Democrats and the state has gotten more or less conservative in that time, although Democratic strength at the legislative level imploded by the 1980s. In 2002 Bebout simply screwed up by running too negative a campaign against Freudenthal and being narrowly beaten as a result, in addition he had to deal with a very divisive moderate versus rabid conservative primary as sane Wyoming Republicans squared off against the Barbara Cubin’s.

Still the timing was surprising, and while a relatively unimportant race its still an interesting state for Democrats to hold that power. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the race is the 80-15 lead Bebout supposedly had immediately after winning his primary.

I suppose I should not an honorable mention or two.

Kansas Governor 2002: This was a close race, Sebelius looked to be favored with moderates coalescing around her and a fantastic campaign being run.

Hawaii 2002: Linda Lingle’s win shocked a lot of people. But really the old guard of the HA Democratic party had it coming to them eventually, the strangest thing to me is that it came from a white, Jewish woman who grew up in Missouri and southern California. Long term she accomplished little, you could say Lingle has been a disaster for state Republicans despite her popularity, as she oversaw the implosion of their position in the State Legislature and has accomplished very little of her standard fare conservative, pro-business agenda. More than anything she was probably elected out of sheer frustration with Cayetano and the incompetency and the out of touch Democratic old guard.

Still don’t let Obama’s numbers fool you, the state is much more conservative that and favorable to Republicans, he has single-handedly, perhaps, turned back a Republican trend but Honolulu remains very open to Republicans and is the population center. That being said Abercrombie will wipe the floor, 72 or not he’s said to be a lifetime weightlifting enthusiast, and Hawaii is known for its old politicians, its not a place to set up a political career if your idea of “your turn” and “maturity” is when you start collecting social security.