AL-02, ID-01, PA-10: Bright and Minnick Won’t Switch, but Carney (!) Mulling It

First, the good news:

With Griffith’s announcement Tuesday, eyes immediately turned to his home state freshman counterpart, Rep. Bobby Bright.

But Bright told the House Democratic leadership Tuesday night that he planned to stay in the party, according to a senior Democratic aide.

Similarly, Rep. Walt Minnick (D-Idaho), another freshman Blue Dog who would be a prime target, indicated in a statement to POLITICO that he won’t switch.

“I will remain as independent as Idaho, I will not be switching parties, and I will win in November,” Minnick said in the statement.

These are two guys who you’d think might have something to gain by switching — they occupy blood-red districts and surely would have an easier time winning re-election as Republicans, right? Well, say whatever you will about their voting records, but they’re not morons like Parker Griffith. They know full well that they would stand a greater chance of being teabagged to death in a GOP primary than they do of losing a general election as a Democrat. In other words, once you go Dem, there ain’t no goin’ back.

But wait, what the hell is this?

Democratic Rep. Chris Carney received a phone call Wednesday from Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) asking him to consider becoming a Republican, a top GOP official told POLITICO.

A spokesman for Carney declined to say if the congressman was considering such a switch.

“No further comment at this time,” said Carney spokesman Josh Drobnyk, who would only confirm that the call took place. […]

But [a House Republican] aide acknowledged that they had gotten “a nibble” from Carney and were now making the pitch that he’d be better off switching parties than running again as a Democrat in a northeastern Pennsylvania seat that President Obama lost by 9 percentage points last year.

Carney would be a damned fool to do this. Perhaps he’s just being coy as a means to foster some kind of cross-ballot appeal, in order to say to his GOP constituents that even DC Republicans think that he’s “their kind of Democrat”. But if Carney thinks that the NRCC could clear a primary field for him, or if he wouldn’t be vulnerable to a generic teabagger in a primary after voting for the stimulus and health care reform, his stupidity is breathtaking.

(H/T: desmoinesdem)

AL-05: Griffith is Friendless and Alone; Ron Sparks May Run

An omnibus of the latest and greatest Parker Griffith news:

  • Things got off to a rocky start for freshly-minted turncoat GOP Rep. Parker Griffith when his hometown paper, the Huntsville Times, eviscerated Griffith’s defection as a move made out of self-preservation that will end up hurting his district, which is heavily dependent on government funding for various aerospace and missile defense projects.
  • The Times was of course correct in their assessment that Griff’s split would hurt his district — Nancy Pelosi just stripped him of his committee assignments.
  • Griffith’s move has also cost him at least some of his staff and political associates: his press secretary called it quits, and all of his DC consultants have severed their ties with him.
  • Griffith was also forced to respond to the news that his campaign downloaded voter data from the Alabama Democratic Party just hours before his switch was made official. Griffith has said that they will delete that data. Also, in the run-up to his switch, Griffith conducted internal polling on the general election — but won’t disclose what the results were.
  • Republicans must be thrilled to welcome such a staunchly conservative Democrat into their ranks, right? Well, no. Not only are the local teabaggers unsupportive of Griffith, it appears that Republicans higher up the food chain are joining the purity chase, too. State Treasurer Kay Ivey, who is currently running for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, slammed Griff for defecting merely as a “ploy” for self-preservation, and that his enrollment in the Republican ranks is an “insult to every grassroots activist who commits untold hours in devotion to getting candidates elected”. (The irony, of course, is that Ivey herself used to be a Dem.) Was this the warm embrace that you were counting on, Griff? Perhaps calling yourself a “lifelong Democrat” and, in previous campaigns, running on a platform of giving “health care for all of the citizens” isn’t the type of background that the Republican base can accept under any circumstances these days — no matter how much you try to apologize for it.
  • And speaking of Republicans who want a piece of Griffith’s hide, here’s a familiar name who may be itching to step up: insurance executive Wayne Parker, who gave Griffith a close shave in 2008, is saying that he’s seriously considering an entry into the Republican primary.
  • So who will run for the Democrats? There are a few options — after all, this district has a pretty healthy Democratic bench. For one, there’s Susan Parker, a member of the state’s Public Service Commission and former State Auditor. Parker was actually interested in the race back in 2008, but demurred after Griffith jumped in. (It was a shame to me at the time, and an overwhelming shame now.) The problem is that Parker is up for re-election to the PSC next year — so she would have to choose between a relatively easy re-election campaign and a hard-fought congressional scrap.

    The other choice is a name that any self-respecting SSP fan is thoroughly familiar with: state Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries Ron Sparks, who is currently waging an underdog campaign for Governor against Artur Davis. The DCCC called Sparks, and by the sound of it, he seems pretty interested in the campaign. When a candidate doesn’t swat down rumors that he’s considering race-switching with haste, that’s usually a pretty good sign that they’re giving the matter more than just serious thought.

RaceTracker Wiki: AL-05

GOP trying to get Carney (PA-10) to switch (updated)

According to the Politico:

Democratic Rep. Chris Carney received a phone call Wednesday from Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) asking him to consider becoming a Republican, a top GOP official told POLITICO.

A spokesman for Carney declined to say if the congressman was considering such a switch.

“No further comment at this time,” said Carney spokesman Josh Drobnyk, who would only confirm that the call took place.

In a brief interview, McCain declined to offer details about the conversation.

“I just said, ‘Whatever you do, I know that you’ll make the right decision for the country,'” said the Arizonan.

Carney defeated Republican incumbent Don Sherwood in 2006. Pennsylvania’s 10th district has a PVI of R+8.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Martin tweeted today that Walt Minnick (ID-01) and Bobby Bright (AL-02) are not switching.

UPDATE: Forgot to mention that Carney voted for the stimulus bill and the House version of health care reform, so it’s questionable whether he could survive a GOP primary in PA-10. He did vote against the climate change bill.

SECOND UPDATE: Carney says he’s not switching:

“I am flattered by the overtures of Sen. McCain and other Republican Party officials and consider their outreach a sure sign that I have worked in a truly bipartisan manner,” Carney said in a statement.

“I always put my district above political party and have maintained an independent voice. I have enjoyed widespread Republican support throughout my district and will continue to work closely with Democrats, Republicans and independents alike. I appreciate the Republican Party’s outreach, but I have no plans to change parties.”

KY-Sen: Republicans Take the Lead

Public Policy Polling (12/18-21, registered voters, 4/2-3 in parens):

Jack Conway (D): 33 (37)

Trey Grayson (R): 40 (33)

Jack Conway (D): 36

Rand Paul (R): 42

Dan Mongiardo (D): 35 (36)

Trey Grayson (R): 44 (40)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 36

Rand Paul (R): 42

(MoE: ±2.8%)

There are a few takeways from this: First, all of these candidates are fairly unknown and undefined. Conway and Grayson have “Not Sure” numbers of 63% and 64%, respectively, in their favorability scores. The circus act that is Rand Paul, on the other hand, has left more of an impression than either of these statewide-elected officials, with only 51% of the electorate being unfamiliar with him. The best known of this lot, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, has less room for growth: only 38% are unfamiliar with him, while his favorables are underwater at 25-37 (Conway, Grayson, and Paul all have close to net neutral favorable ratings). I’m still kind of surprised that Mongiardo stayed in the primary after a string of profanity-laced tirades against Gov. Steve Beshear were released on tape, but the primary head-to-heads released yesterday suggest that he still has shot at the pie.

Next, speaking only for myself, I’m not optimistic about this race if Grayson can squeak through the primary. Now, perhaps the national environment will improve enough to give a guy like Conway an easier shot in such a race, but I’m not going to hold my breath. However, if Paul can ride a wave of his own freaknut base and forge an alliance with the teabag crowd in the GOP primary, I like the general election a lot better. As we’ve mentioned many times in the past, Paul represents a weirder strain of conservatism, one that isn’t exactly a perfect fit for a mainstream Kentucky electorate. It’s possible that a candidate cut from his cloth could get swept into office if the national trends are that bad, but his libertarian views will be vulnerable against a competently-run Democratic campaign in a general election. It should be a very fun race to watch.

NY-Sen-B, NY-03: Pete King Reconsidering Senate Race

You may recall that, back in August, GOP Rep. Pete King made one of the mopiest exits from Senatorial consideration in recent memory, kvetching that Gov. David Paterson’s decision to tap Kirsten Gillibrand instead of Caroline Kennedy to fill Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat robbed him of the opportunity to enter a competitive race. Well, it looks like King, at the urging of Rudy Giuliani, may be having second thoughts:

While Mr. Giuliani mentioned Mr. Pataki and Representative Peter T. King of Long Island as potential challengers to Ms. Gillibrand, those who know Mr. Pataki say the odds of his running are remote. (Efforts to reach Mr. Pataki through a spokesman on Tuesday were unsuccessful.)

Mr. King ruled out a race against Ms. Gillibrand in August, but said in an interview on Tuesday that he would give it a second thought, at the urging of party strategists. A run would mean giving up his House seat and his spot as ranking member of the Homeland Security Committee, and winning would leave him facing re-election in 2012.

Who knows how seriously King is taking this — if he wants to run, he wasted a hell of a lot of fundraising time in dithering for so long while the industrious Gillibrand has been flooding her coffers. The GOP can’t seem to come to terms with letting this race slip away, but they have nothing substantive to show for this race 11 months after Gillibrand’s appointment.

UPDATE: King tells Politico that it’s unlikely that he’ll run, with the chances that he’ll take the plunge on a scale of 1-to-10 being a “three”.

RaceTracker Wiki: NY-Sen-B | NY-03

EVIL Republican Gerrymander of New York

After messing around with Dave’s App to learn about how to enter a good product into the contest, I see that it is somewhat difficult to strengthen all Democratic incumbents. Based on my knowledge about the 2002 lines, I know that many of the districts (Reynolds, Sweeney, Kelly, etc.) were designed to keep GOP congressmen safe. I decided it would be cool to see what a GOP gerrymander would look like, knowing full-well that the GOP will never be in complete control of the redistricting process. Please enjoy a grossly gerrymandered upstate New York that, in a normal year, would result in a 20-8 Democratic congressional delegation (assuming King was made safer and Bishop made significantly weaker).

Please also enjoy something that is probably worthless.

When creating this map, I stupidly closed the tab that had all of the exact numbers for each of the districts. All of the numbers are based on my memory of when I drew them, though I’m pretty sure my estimates are very accurate. I have redrawn some of them to check if I’m correct.

Goals:

Create an upstate map that at least six GOP candidates could win

Force Democratic congresscritters to compete against each other

Ax one Democratic district (I actually combined a number of them, so none was really “axed” per se, but one can argue Arcuri’s district is the most axed)

Map without counties:

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Map with counties:

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Analysis:

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District 17: DARKISH BLUE

Obama: 65%

McCain: 33%

PVI D+13

Incumbent: Nita Lowey and Eliot Engel

Both Lowey and Engel live in this district, but I presume Engel would run in the neighboring 19th. This district is safe for any Democrat.

District 18 TEAL

Obama: 49%

McCain: 49%

PVI: R+3

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri

Keeps his base in Utica, but without Tompkins County, Arcuri should lose.

District 19: LIGHT GREEN

Obama: 63%

McCain: 35%

PVI D+11

Incumbent: None (but probably Engel)

This district is gerrymandered to take all of the Democratic votes in the upper suburbs, so any Democrat running here would be safe.

District 20: MEDIUM GREEN

Obama: 49%

McCain: 50%

PVI R+3

Incumbent: John Hall

This would add a lot of new territory for Hall, and it still has the same Republican bent. I would say that in any regular year, Hall would have a very difficult time.

District 21: BROWN

Obama: 55%

McCain: 44%

PVI D+3

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey

Hinchey’s district loses Democratic votes. His base in Ultser should make him fine in this district, but when he decides to retire, it’s going to be tough to find a Dem as progressive as he is.

District 22: DARK RED

Obama: 48%

McCain: 51%

PVI R+4

Incumbent: None

This sprawling district makes up the suburbs of Albany and dances around Albany and Schenectady. This district could be winnable by a Scott Murphy-type (who I imagine would run in here instead of the 23rd, where he lives), but Murphy barely won in his home district, which Obama carried.

District 23 PINK

Obama: 61%

McCain: 37%

PVI D+9

Incumbent: Paul Tonko, Scott Murphy, Bill Owens

Packing the urban areas of Albany and Schenectady and combining them with the heavily Democratic counties up north, and you have a solidly-Democratic district (making districts around it more Republican).

District 24 GRAY

Obama: 47%

McCain: 51%

PVI: R+5

Incumbent: Eric Massa

Massa could theoretically win this district, as his present district is hostile enough to Democrats. The new 24th has the same Southern Tier character, but is probably a bit more conservative. It takes in Syracuse’s suburbs instead of Rochester’s.

District 25 WEST GREEN DISTRICT

Obama: 48%

McCain: 51%

PVI: R+4

Incumbent: Chris Lee

Buffalo and Rochester suburbs should keep Lee safe.

District 26 DARK PINK

Obama: 47%

McCain: 52%

PVI: R+5

Incumbent: None

A newly-minted Republican district.

District 27 PURPLE

Obama: 59%

McCain: 39%

PVI: D+7

Incumbent: Dan Maffei

Packs metro Syracuse with Ithaca for a solid Democratic district.

District 28 WESTERN PINK DISTRICT

Obama: 71%

McCain: 27%

PVI: D+19

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter and Brian Higgins

The dreaded earmuffs district packs all of Rochester and Buffalo into one district for a super-Democratic disctrict.

AL-05: Parker Griffith Can Lose

Could newly-minted turncoat Parker Griffith get teabagged to death? It’s looking like a real possibility. You’d think that if the NRCC could score a party switch (always a big deal), it would come with assurances that the primary field would be swept clear. And just a few years ago, when the Republicans were in the majority and promoting conservatism was equated with supporting Bush, I have no doubt that would have happened. (After all, no GOPers complained when Rodney Alexander changed parties.) But today, with wingnuts demanding absurd levels of purity, it’s a different ballgame:

Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks (R) said Tuesday afternoon that he won’t be clearing out of the GOP primary in Alabama’s 5th district to make way for Rep. Parker Griffith, who announced earlier in the day that he was switching parties and joining the Republican Conference.

Brooks also warned the Congressman that his party switching ways will not go over well with GOP primary voters, who make up the vast majority of the 48 percent of the 5th district electorate that voted against Griffith in the 2008 general election.

“That’s a tough jury to sell, particularly when you’ve voted with [Speaker] Nancy Pelosi [D-Calif.] 85 percent of the time,” Brooks said. “It’s unbelievably good fortune that Parker Griffith would jump into our pool and want to play. … He has just propelled us to favored candidate status.”

This just goes to show you: You can vote against the Democrats on every single big-ticket item – the stimulus, the Obama budget, cap-and-trade, healthcare, finacial regulatory reform, and even equal pay for women – and they’ll still find something to hit you on. In this case, Mo Brooks is smacking Griffith for his WaPo “Voting with Party” score. Nevermind that Griffith has one of the lowest scores on the list – trying to fight from a defensive crouch is almost always a recipe for failure. The GOP would surely have used this number against him had he stayed a Dem; it’s nice to see he’ll still get whaled on with it as a Republican. (And let that be a lesson to other conservadems who think they can hide behind lousy voting records.)

But don’t worry – Griffith’s new Republican buddies have plenty more ammo:

But just five years ago, Griffith donated $1,500 to the presidential campaign of liberal icon Howard Dean – with one donation coming when Dean’s campaign was already faltering in February 2004.

(Griffith also gave $1,000 to Sen. Harry Reid [D-Nev.] in December 2003 – something his conservative detractors will be sure to point out.)

Howard Dean! LOL! Who knew that me and Grif had so much in common? I was a big Dean supporter back then, too! But I think that even I knew it was time to jump ship by February (hell, his campaign folded in the middle of that month). You can bet that if a guy pretending to be a Southern-fried conservative was at one point a Dean backer, he’s said and done a lot of other libruhl shit over the course of his career. Like this:

A Dem source noted that while all of his back-and-forth with GOPers was going on, Griffith actually took the time to attend the 12/9 DCCC holiday party, an event that featured Speaker Nancy Pelosi. That doesn’t exactly paint the picture of a man wavering in his party commitments.

You can bet that isn’t the only time Grif has hobnobbed with Pelosi. But wait – there’s more! Plenty more. I think Griffith’s primary opponents could run this old ad – courtesy of the NRCC, circa 2008 – without changing a single word:

I know you didn’t think I was done yet. Our compadres at the Club for Growth is happy to Scozzafava good ol’ Grif, too:

Griffith’s voting record is far from conservative, too. Granted, he voted against the Big 4 – Obama’s first budget, the Stimulus, Cap and Trade, and ObamaCare.  However, his vote on the budget is slightly deceptive since he originally voted for 9 of the 12 spending bills that make up the budget.  And he voted against all the Stimulus amendments that would reduce its size.

But just a quick perusal of 2009 shows that he voted  YES on the 2009 pork-filled Omnibus; YES on Cash for Clunkers, NO on waiving the harmful Davis-Bacon provision, and had a pathetic 0% score on the 2009 RePORK Card.

This party switch signals Griffith’s nervousness, but it doesn’t signal that his incumbency is safe.

Zing! I think it’s very possible that it will be easier for Brooks to beat Griffith in a primary rather than a general. The DCCC is squeezing Grif to get back their money (something they did successfully with Rodney Alexander), so that’ll hurt him on the financial front. What’s more, he’s got a bit of a “damned-if-he-do, damned-if-he-don’t” situation on his hands: If the NRCC decides to openly support Griffith, it would almost certainly provide major fodder to the teabaggers – Charlie Crist 2.0. On the flipside, if they don’t back him (very possible, since they have to care more about blue seats than red ones), well, then, he loses out on major institutional backing. Not a good problem to have.

It’s important to remember that to remain a member in good standing of the conservative movement, it isn’t enough just to vote a certain way. You have to evidence a very particular tribal belonging – you need to hate the right people, be ignorant of the right facts, be fearful of the right bogeymen, and be arrogant about the whole enterprise. If you somehow fail this tribal litmus test, it doesn’t matter how right-wing you are – that’s how, for example, a wildly conservative guy like former Rep. Chris Cannon could lose a primary to another wildly conservative maniac.

And Parker Griffith is no Chris Cannon. Good luck, li’l buddy.

EVIL Republican Gerrymander of New York (

After messing around with Dave’s App to learn about how to enter a good product into the contest, I see that it is somewhat difficult to strengthen all Democratic incumbents. Based on my knowledge about the 2002 lines, I know that many of the districts (Reynolds, Sweeney, Kelly, etc.) were designed to keep GOP congressmen safe. I decided it would be cool to see what a GOP gerrymander would look like, knowing full-well that the GOP will never be in complete control of the redistricting process. Please enjoy a grossly gerrymandered upstate New York, that, in a normal year, would result in a 19-9 Democratic congressional delegation (assuming King was made safer and Bishop made significantly weaker).

When creating this map, I stupidly closed the tab that had all of the exact numbers for each of the districts. All of the numbers are based on my memory of when I drew them, though I’m pretty sure my estimates are very accurate.  

Map without counties:

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Map with counties:

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SSP Daily Digest: 12/22

CT-Sen: In an effort to calm fears that he’s facing an unwinnable path to re-election, Chris Dodd’s campaign released an internal poll that’s… well… pretty fugly. The GQR poll has ex-Rep. Chris Simmons leading by 51-46, while Dodd and former WWE CEO Linda McMahon are tied at 46% each. McMahon, for her part, released an internal poll showing her leading Simmons by two in the Republican primary. Mmmm… cat fud.

FL-Sen: Big trouble in South Florida for Charlie Crist? GOP Reps. Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart have suddenly and unilaterally rescinded their endorsements of Crist’s senatorial campaign. The Diaz-Balarts offered no explanation as to why they’re leaving Crist to hang, but Lincoln offered this cryptic elaboration: Crist “left us no alternative and he knows why.” Is a Marco Rubio endorsement forthcoming?

GA-Gov: Republican SoS Karen Handel, who is very much the underdog in the GOP primary, announced today that she will be resigning from her office to concentrate on her gubernatorial bid. This will allow her to raise money during the legislative session — something her opponents currently holding political office will not be able to do.

IA-Gov: The Terry Branstad comeback express keeps chugging along — and it picked up another passenger today, as state Sen. Jerry Behn dropped out of the gubernatorial race today and handed Branstad his endorsement.

RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee will make a “major announcement” sometime after New Year’s Day, presumably to make his candidacy for Rhode Island Governor official.

SC-Gov: InsiderAdvantage takes a look at the Dem and GOP primary fields, and finds some pretty wide-open contests. For the Republicans, the McCain-backed state AG Henry McMaster and Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer are tied at 22%, with Sanford protege Nikki Haley at 13%, and the House of Representative’s very own “Some Dude”, Gresham Barrett, lagging behind at 9%. For the Dems, state Superintendent Jim Rex leads with 21% to lobbyist Dwight Drake’s 15%. State Sen. Vince Sheheen has 8%.

CA-20: Dem Rep. Jim Costa may be facing a legitimate challenger next year… but one whom he already beat. Term-limited state Sen. Roy Ashburn, who lost an open seat race to Costa in 2004 by 7%, said he’s considering running for Congress again after ruling it out earlier. Local Republicans don’t sound too thrilled, though, pointing out Ashburn’s less than completely brain-dead record on opposing tax hikes.

PA-10: Sophomore Dem Rep. Chris Carney has had a charmed start to his second term up until this point, managing to avoid any serious Republican competition from emerging. However, that streak has ended in recent weeks with the interest of state Rep. Mike Peifer and ex-US Attorney Tom Marino in the race. On the bright side, Peifer announced yesterday that he won’t be running, after all, but can we read that as a tea leaf that Marino is pretty serious about making this candidacy happen?

PA-19: Here’s another reason why GOP Rep. Todd Platts should hope that he lands the job as head of the GAO: he’s now facing a primary challenge from freedom-loving businessman Mike Smeltzer. Maybe Platts would rather just retire than be forced to defend his Main Street Partnership-style voting record?

SC-05: Republicans made their list, but now they better check it twice. The office of veteran Dem Rep. John Spratt confirmed yesterday that Spratt will indeed run for another term next year in spite of Republican-fueled speculation that he was looking for the exits.

Pollsters & Scoundrels: Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal offers a wrap-up of the strange, strange saga of Strategic Vision LLC.

Approvals: Seeking approval? Don’t look at me — go talk to SUSA; they’ve just released a ton of approval ratings for Senators and Governors across the nation. On your station.

MN-06: Bachmann Looks Comfy

Public Policy Polling (12/17-20, registered voters):

Tarryl Clark (D): 37

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 55

Undecided: 8

Maureen Reed (D): 37

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 53

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Clark is generally considered to be a pretty solid recruit for Team Blue, but this looks like a pretty challenging environment in which to topple a Republican incumbent — even one as touched in the head as Bachmann. More, from Jensen:

53% of Bachmann’s constituents approve of the job she’s doing in Congress to 41% who disapprove. Her numbers certainly reflect her polarizing nature, with 86% of Republicans giving her good marks and 83% of Democrats saying they don’t like her performance. But in a GOP leaning district and with a 51% approval from independents it all adds up to a pretty solid standing.

RaceTracker Wiki: MN-06

(Update: An earlier version of this post mistakenly stated that Clark was the DCCC’s preferred candidate.)