Month: February 2010

Yet another blast of polls from America’s most annoyingly prolific pollster.

LA-Sen (2/10, likely voters, 1/14 in parens):

Charlie Melancon (D): 33 (35)

David Vitter (R-inc): 57 (53)

Other: 3 (4)

Undecided: 7 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MI-Gov (2/9, likely voters):

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 29

Mike Bouchard (R): 42

Other: 8

Undecided: 20

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 28

Peter Hoekstra (R): 44

Other: 8

Undecided: 20

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 30

Mike Cox (R): 45

Other: 8

Undecided: 18

Andy Dillon (D): 32

Mike Bouchard (R): 40

Other: 10

Undecided: 18

Andy Dillon (D): 34

Peter Hoekstra (R): 41

Other: 10

Undecided: 15

Andy Dillon (D): 36

Mike Cox (R): 35

Other: 11

Undecided: 17

Virg Bernero (D): 31

Mike Bouchard (R): 40

Other: 9

Undecided: 20

Virg Bernero (D): 30

Peter Hoekstra (R): 43

Other: 7

Undecided: 19

Virg Bernero (D): 34

Mike Cox (R): 40

Other: 9

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MO-Sen (2/10, likely voters, 1/19 in parens):

Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (43)

Roy Blunt (R): 49 (49)

Some other: 3 (3)

Not sure: 6 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-Sen (2/9-10, likely voters):

Tracy Potter (D): 17

John Hoeven (R): 71

Other: 4

Undecided: 8

Heidi Heitkamp (D): 29

John Hoeven (R): 65

Other: 1

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-AL (2/9-10, likely voters):

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 40

Rick Berg (R): 46

Other: 3

Undecided: 11

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 45

Kevin Cramer (R): 44

Other: 3

Undecided: 7

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 47

Paul Schaffner (R): 38

Other: 5

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NH-Sen (2/10, likely voters, 1/12 in parens):

Paul Hodes (D): 39 (40)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 46 (49)

Other: 3 (3)

Not Sure: 13 (8)

Paul Hodes (D): 44 (45)

Ovide Lamontagne (R): 38 (38)

Other: 4 (6)

Not Sure: 13 (11)

Paul Hodes (D): 41 (43)

Bill Binnie (R): 42 (37)

Other: 3 (5)

Not Sure: 13 (15)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Gov (2/8, likely voters):

Jack Wagner (D): 28

Tom Corbett (R): 49

Other: 5

Undecided: 17

Joe Hoeffel (D): 29

Tom Corbett (R): 51

Other: 5

Undecided: 15

Dan Onorato (D): 26

Tom Corbett (R): 52

Other: 5

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Sen (2/8, likely voters, 1/18 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 38 (40)

Pat Toomey (R): 47 (49)

Other: 5 (4)

Undecided: 10 (8)

Joe Sestak (D): 35 (35)

Pat Toomey (R): 43 (43)

Some other: 7 (6)

Not sure: 15 (16)

(MoE: ±3%)

Looks like Tea Party activists didn’t learn from NY-23

http://politicalwire.com/archi…

Political Wire says that they’ve registered as an official party for this November and will have a candidate. Further down in the comments thread of the Political Wire story, a comment says that Jon Ralston is reporting that their candidate will be Jon Ashjian. Apparently he is the president of a few companies in Las Vegas.

Does anything think a Tea Party candidate will gain traction in an election in Nevada? For some reason Nevada doesn’t strike me as Tea Party-land, but I could be wrong.

I think even if this guys only musters 1-2% of the vote it could be a huge difference. I’m giving Reid a 55-45 shot at being re-elected with a Tea Party candidate on this ballot.

What say you?

The latest Iowa poll by Selzer and Co. for the Des Moines Register finds Governor Chet Culver’s approval rating at a new low of 36 percent. Only 34 percent of respondents said Iowa is headed in the right direction, while 57 percent said the state is on the wrong track. The poll was in the field from January 31 to February 3 and surveyed 805 Iowa adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Culver’s approval rating fell to 36 percent, with 53 percent disapproving. The Des Moines Register’s Iowa poll from September had Culver in positive territory, with 50 percent approval and 39 percent disapproval. The Des Moines Register’s November poll had Culver with 40 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval.

The Des Moines Register noted that since September, Culver’s approval among Democrats has fallen from 72 percent to 57 percent, while Senator Tom Harkin’s approval among Democrats was measured at 77 percent in both polls.

The economic recession is probably a major factor in Culver’s slide. Although the state’s eight leading economic indicators were measured in positive territory in December 2009 (for the first time since April 2007), employment remains weak. Iowa’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.6 percent in December 2009, and Iowa Workforce Development found,

Compared to last December, the Iowa economy has lost 40,100 jobs. Manufacturing still leads all sectors in terms of losses, down 19,900 over the year. Trade and transportation and construction followed with losses of 7,900 and 7,700, respectively. Education and health services remained the most resilient sector, adding 2,600 jobs since December 2008.

The slow economy has caused state revenues to fall below projections, which prompted Culver to make a 10 percent across-the-board cut in current-year spending in October. Spending cuts are rarely popular with anyone.

Side note: I wondered last fall whether the scandal surrounding Iowa’s film tax credit, which broke in September, would hurt Culver. I was surprised to see that 61 percent of respondents in the Des Moines Register’s poll think the film tax credit is “good for the state.” The poll question didn’t mention how much the film tax credit has cost compared to the economic impact. I agree with economist Dave Swenson, who thinks the program was flawed from the start.

The latest Register survey also polled Culver against the four Republican challengers. The hypothetical match-ups come from a subset of 531 “likely voters,” producing a slightly higher margin of error: plus or minus 4.3 percent.

Former Governor Terry Branstad remains the strongest challenger, beating Culver 53 percent to 33 percent. Bob Vander Plaats leads Culver 43 percent to 40 percent. Strangely, Culver trailed Branstad and Vander Plaats by slightly larger margins in the Register’s November poll, even though his approval rating was a little higher then. Culver barely beats the other Republicans, who are less well known. He leads State Representative Chris Rants 41 percent to 37 percent and State Representative Rod Roberts 41 percent to 36 percent.

Needless to say, it’s never a good sign when an incumbent governor is below 40 percent approval and barely breaks 40 percent against any challenger. Culver needs to make up ground this year in order to be re-elected. The right direction/wrong track numbers show that voters under 35 were more likely than the overall population to think things are going in the right direction, but most of the electorate in November will be over 35.

Culver has chances to improve his standing this year. If the state’s leading economic indicators continue a positive trend, the job market may improve. Also, spending on infrastructure projects supported by the I-JOBS state bonding initiative will pick up in the spring and summer. So far nearly $600 million in I-JOBS money has been awarded, but only $20.7 million has been spent. As the projects take shape, more Iowans will be employed and more people will see the benefits to their communities.

On the political side, Branstad hasn’t received much scrutiny from the media yet, but when the gubernatorial campaign heats up, his accountability problem may become more apparent. A hard-fought Republican primary will exacerbate the rift between moderates and conservatives. Some conservatives have already vowed not to support Branstad if he is the GOP nominee. More focus on the inconsistencies between candidate Branstad and Governor Branstad may help Culver’s standing with Democrats and independents.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

UPDATE: The Des Moines Register’s Kathie Obradovich says Culver may as well start shopping his resume around, but Iowa blogger John Deeth argues that Culver is not dead yet.

SECOND UPDATE: The latest poll commissioned by The Iowa Republican blog and the Republican Concordia group found Branstad leading Culver 57 percent to 29 percent and Vander Plaats leading Culver 43 percent to 39 percent. I don’t know much about the firm that conducted that poll, and I would put more stock in Selzer’s numbers for the Des Moines Register.

My campaign manager recently drafted a letter to discuss the electability of my candidacy. Recently, we had a strong showing at the gubernatorial caucuses, stunning the pundits who said we didn’t have a chance.

As the Chief Author of the Minnesota Health Plan, I’ve helped organize over 70 signers onto the bill, including several of my opponents in this primary race. If I have the opportunity to serve as Minnesota’s next Governor, I will push for real changes. That is my promise to you. We will see real change!

I look forward to hearing any questions, comments or concerns relating to the electability of my candidacy and addressing them directly.

I hope you will join us.

Sincerely,

John

—

John Marty

DFL Candidate for Governor

http://www.johnmarty.org  

Traveling around the state, our campaign has heard from countless people who believe in John Marty’s vision, they respect his values, they trust his integrity — they say he could become a truly great governor. However, some say he can’t win.  Some say he’s too nice.

   John is actually more electable than other candidates this year, and here’s why:

   Many independent and Independence Party voters believe that both major parties are controlled by corporate interests and special interest money. John has consistently rejected lobbyist and PAC money, and he has been recognized, time and time again, for his courage and independence in standing up to powerful interests. John is the candidate with the credibility to win over those independents.

   At a time when voters are increasingly cynical about politicians, John has earned a reputation of being trust-worthy and honest. Research has shown that candidates do best, not by appealing to the center, but by holding firm convictions that, while they may be less popular, show evidence of commitment and integrity. John is the candidate who can overcome that cynicism, and win the respect of voters who know he will do what he says.

   Many Green Party members are former DFLers who left the party because it has too often surrendered to political expedience. John is the candidate who has demonstrated the courage of his convictions and speaks to the values of the Green Party.

   Tens of thousands of low-income people who were inspired and came out to vote in 2008 are once again feeling that the political system doesn’t care about them. John’s promise of affordable health care for all, through his single-payer, Minnesota Health Plan can give them renewed hope. His commitment to ending poverty — through his legislation for affordable childcare, living wages, and fair taxes legislation — gives them a chance to see a brighter future ahead. John is the candidate who can inspire and re-engage disenchanted voters.

   So why do some DFLers say that John Marty cannot win? Because John ran for Governor in 1994 and lost by a large margin.

   In that race, John was challenging a popular incumbent governor. And in 1994, the beginning of the Gingrich “revolution,” Republicans saw landslide victories across the country; not a single Republican incumbent in any gubernatorial race or U.S. House or Senate race lost that November. Even so, it wasn’t a perfect campaign. John has acknowledged his mistakes — and learned from them. He is sixteen years older and wiser and has the confidence and experience to match his vision and courage.

   Times change, and in 2010, John Marty is the right person at the right time.

   In recent years, John has repeatedly shown his ability to appeal to independents and Republicans. Although his suburban senate district had a four point Republican edge according to the court redistricting panel,  John has won by large margins — over 62% last time — which means he picks up both independent and Republican votes. John has shown an ability to win — not by avoiding tough issues but through his bold vision and ethical leadership.

   On caucus night, John exceeded expectations, outperforming seven other gubernatorial candidates in the straw poll, without being a wealthy, self-financed candidate, without accepting a penny of special interest money, and without compromising his values.

   We need John to be the DFL candidate for Governor, and delegates around the state are joining forces to see that John receives the party endorsement in April.  Please join us!

   Warm regards,

   Taina Maki

   Campaign Manager

   P.S. Please visit our new website at: JohnMarty.org.

NYT:

Representative William Delahunt, Democrat of Massachusetts, was speaking by phone Friday about the decision of his colleague Patrick Kennedy not to seek re-election in Rhode Island. In doing so, Mr. Delahunt, who has yet to say whether he will seek re-election himself this year, might have signaled a hint about his own future.

“He went through a process that all of us in public life go through,” said Mr. Delahunt of Mr. Kennedy. “Honestly, I am going through that process myself.”

Mr. Delahunt, who has served in Congress since 1997, said he would announce whether he would seek re-election in March.

Delahunt, as you may know, occupies a district that Obama won by 55-44 in 2008, Kerry by 56-43 in ’04, and Gore by 54-39 in 2000. Yet Republicans view his seat as their ripest pick-up opportunity in the state after Scott Brown handily carried the district last month in the state’s special Senate election. Republicans actually have a bench to choose from here: ex-state Treasurer Joe Malone has begun polling for the race, and state Rep. Jeffrey Perry is already in.

For the Democrats, there has been some buzz about Joe Kennedy III swapping himself in, but that’s yet to be substantiated as anything more than idle chatter at this point.

RaceTracker Wiki: MA-10

So I’ve gotten the feeling that our prospects in the Senate have been sinking recently, even more so than during the last quarter of 2009.  So I asked myself, “Why do I have that feeling?”  And then I went back and looked.  The answer in more cases than not is Scott Rasmussen.

I’m not saying Rasmussen is a bad pollster.  In fact, he may just be ahead of the curve in terms of predicting what may be a dismal Democratic turnout in 2010.  But he is an incredibly frequent pollster, and his polls have dominated the narratives in many of these races as a result of their sheer frequency.  

Here are the races rated by Cook as Lean Retention or better for the challenger:

(1) ND-OPEN – Hoeven’s dominance here has been tracked by several pollsters.  Not a case in point.

(2) DE-OPEN – The proposition that Castle v. Coons is a washout is based on a single Rasmussen poll taken January 25 showing a 56-27 Castle lead.  There is no other recent polling.

(3) AR-Lincoln – Ras is at least corroborated by PPP in showing Lincoln’s sorry ass getting blown out.

(4) NV-Reid – Much like Arkansas, PPP corroborates Rasmussen’s solid R leads.

(5) CO-Bennet – All of the gloom and doom in this race comes from two recent Rasmussen polls showing double-digit leads for Norton over Bennet.  Research 2000 actually showed a small lead for Bennet only a month ago.  

(6) PA-Specter – Again, the gloom and doom here comes from two recent Rasmussen polls showing 9-point leads for Toomey over Specter.  Quinnipiac showed an even race on December 8.

(7) IL-OPEN – Once again, the gloom and doom here comes from a single Rasmussen poll showing Kirk up 6, which was directly contradicted by a PPP poll just a week prior showing Giannoulias up 8.

(8) MO-OPEN – Yet again, more gloom and doom exclusively from Rasmussen, showing Blunt up 7 and 6.  Every non-Rasmussen poll has Carnahan ahead.

(9) OH-OPEN – Again, the narrative that Portman is winning comes from Rasmussen, although Quinnipiac had a 3-point Portman lead back in November.  

(10) NH-OPEN – Several polls have corroborated Rasmussen’s high single digit lead for Ayotte over Hodes, so this is not a case in point.

(11) KY-OPEN – Like New Hampshire, Rasmussen’s polling showing high single single digit leads for Republicans is corroborated by other pollsters here.

(12) IN-Bayh – The only reason that this race is viewed as competitive as far as I can see is a Rasmussen poll that showed Mike Pence up on Bayh and John Hostettler within 3.  Today, Research 2000 showed Bayh up 16 on Hostettler and 20 on Indiana-hating Dan Coats.  Cook has now moved this from Safe D to Lean D, presumably based largely on Rasmussen.

(13) CA-Boxer – Kind of like Indiana.  The main reason this race is viewed as competitive is Rasmussen’s polling, starting in July when Ras showed a 4-point race with Fiorina while others showed 15 to 20 point leads.  In fairness to Ras, a recent PPIC poll showed Tom Campbell within 4, giving some corroboration for Ras’s take.  But nobody else has had Fiorina closer than 8.  Cook has had this at Lean D for some time, and I suspect that was partly based on the July Rasmussen poll.

(14) CT-OPEN – Ras shows a pretty solid Blumenthal blowout, although less so than other pollsters.  Not a case in point.

I am using Wikipedia to track polling, and may be missing some polls.  Please correct me if I am mischaracterizing anything.

Of these 14 races, I would say that Rasmussen has had a stranglehold on the recent gloom and doom narratives in 7: DE, CO, PA, IL, MO, OH, and IN.  Put another way, I have been led to the subconscious belief that we are going to lose the first 6, and be in for a dogfight in IN, strictly based on Rasmussen polling.  I would also put CA in pretty close to the same category as IN, although PPIC did recently confirm a close race with Campbell at least.

I do not think this is an accident.  I do not remember this kind of frenetic pace from Rasmussen before Obama took office.  SSP recently suggested Rasmussen has gotten so prolific that he could be called “spammy.”  My gut tells me Ras is getting as many polls out there as he can precisely so that he can dominate the narratives with his polls and their aggressive turnout model.  Combine this with his right wing framing on issue polling, his inexplicable use of an aggressive likely voter screen for presidential approval three years before the election, his haste to poll Republican “dream” candidates, and his frequent yucking it up with conservative talking heads, and you’ve got yourself a Republican cheerleader trying to influence elections rather than study them.  Again, his polls may be right.  But his transparent efforts to drive the narrative seem very partisan to me.

Take these polls with a grain of salt, considering that they were taken before Debra Medina was nailed for expressing 9/11 truther-esque sentiments in an interview with Glenn Beck. If Perry can scoop up enough votes from her hide, he could avoid a runoff, but that’s a big if.

Here’s the Texas-sized round-up:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/8-10, likely voters):

Rick Perry (R-inc): 42

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 30

Debra Medina (R): 17

Undecided: 11

Rick Perry (R-inc): 43

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 33

Undecided: 24

Rick Perry (R-inc): 44

Debra Medina (R): 23

Undecided: 33

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 38

Debra Medina (R): 30

Undecided: 32

(MoE: ±4.9%)

General election match-ups:

Bill White (D): 42

Rick Perry (R-inc): 46

Undecided: 12

Bill White (D): 41

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 47

Undecided: 12

Bill White (D): 43

Debra Medina (R): 44

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4%)

Hamilton Campaigns (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R) for the Texas Credit Union League (1/3-4 & 6, likely voters):

Bill White (D): 51

Farouk Shami (D): 19

Felix Alvarado (D): 7

Undecided: 16

Rick Perry (R-inc): 49

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 27

Debra Medina (R): 19

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.9%)

University of Texas/Texas Tribune (2/1-7, likely voters):

Bill White (D): 50

Farouk Shami (D): 11

Someone Else: 9

Undecided: 30

(MoE: ±6%)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 45

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 21

Debra Medina (R): 19

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±5.1%)

General election match-ups:

Bill White (D): 35

Rick Perry (R-inc): 44

Someone Else: 8

Undecided: 12

Bill White (D): 34

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 43

Someone Else: 9

Undecided: 14

Bill White (D): 36

Debra Medina (R): 36

Someone Else: 8

Undecided: 21

Farouk Shami (D): 25

Rick Perry (R-inc): 49

Someone Else: 15

Undecided: 14

Farouk Shami (D): 23

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 49

Someone Else: 15

Undecided: 14

Farouk Shami (D): 24

Debra Medina (R): 40

Someone Else: 14

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±3.5%)

And, in the (increasingly unlikely) event of a special Senate election, U-T took a crack at that one, too:

John Sharp (D): 29

David Dewhurst (R): 15

Michael Williams (R): 3

Florence Shapiro (R): 2

Elizabeth Ames Jones (R):  2

Roger Williams (R): 1

Craig James (R): 1

Undecided: 47

(MoE: ±3.5%)