StephenCLE’s House Predictions Part 3 – The Upper South
Welcome to the third installment of my 2010 baseline predictions for the US House of Representatives. In this section, I will overview all the seats in the Upper South region, consisting of Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Carolina. This region, in terms of politics, has undergone a lot of change in recent times, with the areas east of the Appalachians turning blue and those in the mountains and west turning red. It’s hard to call this region solidly in the camp of one side or the other.
Current region breakdown – 42 seats (23 Dem, 19 Rep)
Virginia-1 – Rob Wittman/Republican – Wittman won his 2008 re-election by 15%, which was actually his first re-election since he was initially voted in via a 2007 special election. That was better than McCain, who only beat Obama by 3. Surprisingly, the Democrats have two candidates in the race worth noting, Scott Robinson and Krystal Ball (which is a phenomenal candidate name!). Wittman has raised 597k for his re-election, compared to 386k for Ball and 270k for Robinson. It’s hard to imagine either democrat winning here unless Wittman blunders on the campaign trail, but this seat has the potential to be a sleeper, kind of like Maine-1.
District PVI – R+7
Stephen’s Rating – Likely R
Prediction – Strong Rep Hold
Virginia-2 – Glenn Nye/Democrat – This seat is going to be a battleground for sure. Glenn Nye won this seat in his first run for elected office in 2008, defeating conservative firebrand Thelma Drake by 5%. Obama also carried the district but only be a scant 2%. The Republican primary is shaping up to be a battle. The frontrunner is business owner Scott Rigell, who has raised 666k thus far. He faces competition from Ben Loyola and Bert Mizusawa though, who are both over 200k raised as well. Nye himself has raised 1.09 million, and certainly has the campaigning skills to back it up in the face of a bad national environment. It’s going to be a fight no matter how the Republican primary shakes out.
District PVI – R+5
Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up
Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (6th overall)
Total Pickup Counter – Rep +4
Virginia-3 – Bobby Scott/Democrat – The 3rd is the most democratic district in Virginia, and Scott won uncontested in 2008. He’s safe.
District PVI – D+20
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Strong Dem Hold
Virginia-4 – Randy Forbes/Republican – The 4th district was one of the shockers of the nation in the 2008 presidential election, as Obama beat McCain 50-49 in this conservative district. Forbes, the entrenched incumbent, defeated Andrea Miller by 19% in 2008, and with her being the only democrat in the field for 2010, it looks like a rematch is coming. In other words, this looks like a sure retention.
District PVI – R+4
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
Virginia-5 – Tom Perriello/Democrat – Perriello is perhaps one of the most vulnerable democrats in the entire country heading into 2010. He won by less than 1% over Virgil Goode, in a district where Obama fell by 3% against John McCain. The good news for Perriello is that his fundraising has topped 1 million, and the Republican primary looks to be a heated affair between James McKelvey, Lawrence Verga, and Robert Hurt. McKelvey is arguably the favorite, having received over 501k in donations thus far. Perriello’s problem goes far beyond money though, because unlike Nye and some other democrats, Perriello has voted for virtually all major democratic legislation this session, including health care and cap-n-trade. That’s going to make things really difficult for him. There’s no doubt the base will turn out to Perriello to the bitter end, I just wonder if that base is big enough.
District PVI – R+5
Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up
Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (7th overall)
Total Pickup Count – Rep +5
Virginia-6 – Robert Goodlatte/Republican – This district is very conservative in nature, and includes a lot of the Appalachian west of the state. Goodlatte doesn’t have any opposition yet, and won’t have any trouble holding this seat.
District PVI – R+12
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
Virginia-7 – Eric Cantor/Republican – In this mostly republican district, the well established Cantor has only 2008 Dem candidate Anita Hartke to worry about. In other words, he ain’t worrying too much.
District PVI – R+7
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
Virginia-8 – James Moran/Democrat – Unlike a lot of democrats that have gotten caught up in Virginia’s sudden turn back to the right in 2009/10, Moran doesn’t have to lose sleep over his seat, which is heavily Democratic. There are three republicans running in the primary but they all have a very steep climb in a district that went 69-30 for Obama.
District PVI – D+14
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Virginia-9 Rick Boucher/Democrat – This has turned into a very tough region for Democrats, the Appalachian southwest of the state, but Boucher is a fairly entrenched incumbent. He actually ran unopposed in 2008, but this time he won’t be so lucky as the Repubs will look to take advantage of the district’s rightward swing. So far they only have 2 undistinguished names in the Republican primary, but the 2000-lb elephant in the room is Terry Kilgore, who may or may not run. If he does run, Boucher’s in a lot of trouble. If he doesn’t, then he’s probably going to win. Thus, I’ll take the middle road for now.
District PVI – R+11
Stephen’s Rating – Leans D
Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold
Virginia-10 – Frank Wolf/Republican – In many ways this exurban DC northern Virginia district is the opposite of VA-9, a district that is rapidly turning blue but has an entrenched Republican incumbent. Wolf rose above the blue tide in 2008 and netted 60% of the vote, a very impressive statement. The Dems would need somebody of Mark Warner’s popularity to beat him in this environment.
District PVI – R+2
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
Virginia-11 – Gerry Connolly/Democrat – This district, in the heart of “NoVA”, was once solidly Republican but has taken an extreme swing to the left in the past decade, as Obama cleaned up by 15% in 2008. The blue wave helped Connolly, who picked up the open seat here by 11%. That’s not overwhelming strength, but the good news for Connolly is, unlike some other districts in the state, the Republican field here is really unsettled. 2008 candidate Keith Fimian, a businessman, is running again, but against him are state senator Tim Hugo, former CIA officer Rocky Johnson, and Fairfax County commissioner Pat Herrity. None of these are fundraising giants either, so between that and the district’s blue-ing trend, I think Connolly is in very good shape.
District PVI – D+2
Stephen’s Rating – Likely D
Prediction – Strong Dem Hold
West Virginia-1 – Alan Mollohan/Democrat – We move now into West Virginia, a state that is a bit of a political enigma. The state is trending rapidly to the right at the federal level, but is still quite democratic locally. Mollohan is a long entrenched incumbent, who was unopposed in 2008, but he has had to face questions about his ethics following a string of earmarks to non-profit organizations that he may have been close with. He’s been cleared of charges, but the Repubs are going after him anyway. Business executive David McKinley is the favorite of the party, but there are six candidates vying for the Republican primary. It remains to be seen whether Mollohan still has the ability to really campaign, as he hasn’t had to do it in quite a while.
District PVI – R+9
Stephen’s Rating – Leans D
Prediction – Strong Dem Hold
West Virginia-2 – Shelley Capito/Republican – Capito appeared vulnerable in 2008 but defeated her democratic challenger by a wider than expected margin. Given the rightward swing of the state, it’s hard to imagine the Dems contending here.
District PVI – R+8
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
West Virginia-3 – Nick Rahall/Democrat – Rahall is a very entrenched incumbent, and unlike Mollohan, doesn’t seem to have any internal issues that might make him vulnerable. Despite the conservatism of the district, this one should be a slam dunk.
District PVI – R+6
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Kentucky-1 – Ed Whitfield/Republican – Whitfield is well entrenched, and this part of Kentucky, the western part of the state, is intensely republican. Easy hold.
District PVI – R+15
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
Kentucky-2 – Brett Guthrie/Republican – Guthrie had to gut out a close 5% open seat race in 2008 against David Boswell, which was surprising considering that McCain obliterated Obama by 23% in KY-2, which runs over west-central Kentucky. It is a very conservative district, but Guthrie’s sizeable underperformance against the top of the ticket makes me wonder if he may have some individual weakness. 08 Dem candidate Boswell is undecided at present, but another candidate, state representative Edward Marksberry has recently declared, so to some extent this seat will be competitive. A pickup is very unlikely though.
District PVI – R+15
Stephen’s Rating – Likely R
Prediction – Strong Rep Hold
Kentucky-3 – John Yarmuth/Democrat – This is the lone Dem-leaning district in Kentucky, which pretty much centers around greater Louisville. Yarmuth defeated incumbent Anne Northup by 2 points in 2006, then crushed her by 20 in the rematch. His fundraising has been very good so far (665k), and shows that expects a competitive race even though it may not come. There are five repubs running in the primary, but none are all that exceptional.
District PVI – D+2
Stephen’s Rating – Likely D
Prediction – Strong Dem Hold
Kentucky-4 – Geoff Davis/Republican – This northern Kentucky district, like many in this state, is intensely conservative in nature. Davis is well entrenched, and should have no problem.
District PVI – R+14
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
Kentucky-5 – Harold Rogers/Republican – Rogers ran unopposed in 2008, and may do so again in 2010. Even if there is a challenge here, it won’t get very far in this republican bastion.
District PVI – R+16
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
Kentucky-6 – Ben Chandler/Democrat – This is a fairly hostile seat outside of the liberal haven of Lexington, which is where I believe Chandler hails from. This is a district that supported McCain by a 55-43 count, but Chandler won by 29% over his 2008 opponent, suggesting that he has dug himself into the district pretty deep. That being said, he has a pretty serious opponent in 2008, attorney Andy Barr, who has raised over 300k thus far. Chandler has raised almost twice that however. The partisan lean of this district and the environment has me nervous about this district, but like Alan Mollohan in WV-1, it seems Chandler will be awfully hard to dislodge.
District PVI – R+9
Stephen’s Rating – Leans D
Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold
Tennessee-1 – Phil Roe/Republican – This is one of the most Republican districts in the country, and Roe won an open seat race here in 2008 by 47%. Forgettaboutit.
District PVI – R+21
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
Tennessee-2 – John Duncan/Republican – This district is also intensely conservative, and Duncan has been around since the 80s. I think we can write this one off too. Dems are pretty much DOA in eastern TN.
District PVI – R+17
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
Tennessee-3 – Open/Republican – The Democrats appeared to have small chance at pulling off an upset here in the dark red 3rd when former state insurance commissioner Paula Flowers jumped in. With a fractured Republican primary field, the chance of an injured survivor taking on Flowers made this district one to watch. But now she’s dropped out due to family concerns, and without her, the Dems don’t even have a candidate. Shame, but really, it wasn’t likely she was going to win anyway in this environment.
District PVI – R+13
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
Tennessee-4 – Lincoln Davis/Democrat – Now here is another case of a democratic incumbent holding onto a hostile district. Lincoln Davis was able to defeat his republican opponent by 20% in 2008, but the bottom totally fell out in the presidential race, as Obama was demolished by McCain by 30%. For a district that nearly voted for Gore in 2000, that’s a brutal drop. The question is can the Repubs take advantage of that drop. Four republicans are running in the primary, and the most notable of them are physician Scott Desjarlais and attorney Jack Bailey. Davis’s fundraising this cycle, just 400k, is somewhat underwhelming for an incumbent in a district like this. Maybe I’m just very pessimistic on this one, but I think unless the Republican primary is a brutal and bloody affair, Davis is going down because this district has moved out from under him very quickly.
District PVI – R+13
Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up
Prediction – Moderate Rep Pickup
Total Pickup Count – Rep +6
Tennessee-5 – Jim Cooper/Democrat – Cooper had no trouble winning re-election in 2008, winning by 34% while Obama defeated McCain by 13%. As far as I know the Repubs don’t have much in the way of opposition here, just some no-namers in the primary field. That won’t get it done here.
District PVI – D+3
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Tennessee-6 – Open/Democrat – This is, without question, the worst open seat dilemma the Democrats are facing in the 2010 House cycle. Bart Gordon’s decision to pack his bags has really left the Dems in a bind in a very republican district. In fact, the situation is worse considering that three republican candidates, Diane Black, Lou Ann Zelenik, and Jim Tracy have already raised 150k or more for their runs at the seat. The Democrats don’t even have a confirmed candidate yet. This situation, along with the huge republican lean of the district and the environment tells me we have no shot here.
District PVI – R+13
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Pickup
Total Pickup Count – Rep +7
Tennessee-7 – Marsha Blackburn/Republican – Blackburn is very safe in this district, which amounts to a republican vote sink in western Tennessee.
District PVI – R+18
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
Tennessee-8 – Open/Democratic – Another R-leaning open seat for the Dems. This is precisely why Tennessee is probably the worst state in the nation going into 2010 for Team Blue. This seat supported McCain by a 13% margin in 2008, and the seat has drifted away from democrats in general, but not as much as TN-4 or TN-6. Surprisingly, it appears that both sides have agreed on a candidate already, as farmer Stephen Fincher has settled in well ahead of the Republican primary field. On the Dem side, state senator Roy Herron is the guy, as he stepped down from a run at the governorship to run here in TN-8. Both have raised approximately 680k thus far, so we’re looking at a toss-up battle at the moment.
District PVI – R+6
Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up
Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup
Total Pickup Count – Rep +8
Tennessee-9 – Steve Cohen/Democratic – Finally we hit the Memphis-based 9th, the only truly safe D seat in Tennessee and also the only VRA seat in the state. Cohen is being primaried by Willie Herenton but it’s doubtful that he’ll lose that. Even if the sullied Herenton were to win, it’s unlikely the Repubs would be able to mount much of a challenge.
District PVI – D+23
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
North Carolina-1 – George Butterfield/Democrat – We move now into North Carolina, a state that has moved in the blue direction recently. This district, in the northeastern part of the state, is essentially a racial gerrymander to comply with the VRA. That makes the seat very democratic, and while the republicans have a half decent candidate in insurance executive Ashley Woolard, it’s not likely that she’ll make much headway against Butterfield.
District PVI – D+9
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
North Carolina-2 – Bob Etheridge/Democrat – This district is actually a swing battleground, but you’d never know it watching Etheridge score 67% of the vote in 2008. Obama did win, but only by 5%. Ultimately the Republican challenge here doesn’t look like much anyway.
District PVI – R+2
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
North Carolina-3 – Walter Jones/Republican – This is the other racially gerrymandered district in the northeast part of the state, and this one has all the white people in it. Seeing as we’re in the south, I don’t think I need to go much further than that.
District PVI – R+16
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
North Carolina-4 – David Price/Democrat – The Raleigh-Durham based 4th is the most democratic of all parts of the state, well, at least of those that occur naturally. Price isn’t likely to be challenged much here.
District PVI – D+8
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
North Carolina-5 – Virginia Foxx/Republican – The 5th, which encompasses Appalachian territory in the northwest corner of the state, is solidly republican. Even a firebrand like Foxx can pretty much breathe easily in a district like this.
District PVI – R+15
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
North Carolina-6 – Howard Coble/Republican – This is one of the most republican districts in the nation, which isn’t surprising given that some of the districts around it are racially gerrymandered. No chance here.
District PVI – R+18
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
North Carolina-7 – Mike McIntyre/Democrat – Here’s a rarity, a democrat representing a republican-leaning district in the south that has virtually no competition for re-election. 2008 Repub candidate Will Breazeale is the only challenger, and he lost by 37% last time around.
District PVI – R+5
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
North Carolina-8 – Larry Kissell/Democrat – This is an intriguing seat to predict. Kissell won this seat by 11% in 2008 while Obama scored a 5% win over McCain. His win followed a 2006 campaign that was impressive though he fell short. It’s notable that he performed well in both years despite not being a great fundraiser, which is good because his fundraising numbers haven’t been all that great so far. More good news, the Republican field is fractured big time, with 7 candidates in the race. I think whoever emerges on the Repub side could raise funds and have a shot at this, but their odds aren’t as good as the NRCC might think.
District PVI – R+2
Stephen’s Rating – Leans D
Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold
North Carolina-9 – Susan Myrick/Republican – In this affluent, suburban Charlotte district, Sue Myrick is pretty well entrenched and she’s got the back of a republican lean. The Dems aren’t likely to challenge this seat this cycle but it should be noted that the whole Charlotte area is trending blue fairly rapidly. If NC-12 is broken up in the next redistricting (and it SHOULD be) Myrick could be in trouble.
District PVI – R+11
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
North Carolina-10 – Patrick McHenry/Republican – This seat isn’t much to see, McHenry’s a very conservative fellow in a very conservative district.
District PVI – R+17
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
North Carolina-11 – Heath Shuler/Democrat – This Appalachian district is somewhat conservative in nature, though not quite as much as the neighboring 5th and 10th. Shuler has projected a centrist profile for the most part, and he’s well liked in the district. Better yet, the Republicans don’t have a top tier candidate to face him, and Shuler has already banked 586k, over 500k more than any of his challengers. Right now it’s hard for me to see him losing. Still, as with just about any R-leaning district in the south, I can’t completely rule it out.
District PVI – R+6
Stephen’s Rating – Likely D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
North Carolina-12 – Mel Watt/Democrat – Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the most hideous gerrymander in America. It’s a safe dem district for sure, and Watt will have no trouble retaining the seat, but could they try to make that less of an eyesore in redistricting? Please??
District PVI – D+16
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
North Carolina-13 – Brad Miller/Democrat – This is a fairly democratic district in north central NC, and Miller is fairly well established. I don’t see a challenger in the field that could make this district interesting in 2010.
District PVI – D+5
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Region Recap – The Upper South is going to be one of the toughest regions for the Democrats in 2010, of that I am sure. Open seats in Tennessee are partly responsible for that indigestion. Overall, I see the Dems losing 5 seats and picking up none, giving the Republicans 10 total pickups to the Democrats’ 2.
Current region breakdown – 23 Dem, 19 Rep
Projected breakdown after 2010 – 24 Rep, 18 Dem
Next stop…The South Atlantic
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