Hello, and welcome to part 9 of my 2010 baseline predictions for the House of Representatives.  In this section I will cover the Rocky Mountains.  This region contains the states of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, and Alaska.  (I threw in the Pacific Northwest because keeping those in the Pacific region would’ve made that zone far too large, thanks California).  This region is kind of strange.  Some states are heavily republican while others are democratic, and some are swingish.  The problem for the democrats is that they are almost maxed out in the region, as they have 27 of the region’s 43 seats, compared with only 16 for the republicans.  Of those 27 seats, 8 of them are R+4 or worse in PVI, including 2 seats of R+15 or worse. Because of that and the fact that many states here have an independent-natured electorate, along with the Upper South and the Central Plains, the Rocky Mountains could be the site of major Dem losses.

First off, a recap of where we’ve been, and where we still have to go*:

Northeast – Rep +3 – (Rep pickups of NH-1, NY-24, NY-29)

Mid-Atlantic – Even – (Rep pickups of PA-11, MD-1, Dem pickups of PA-6, DE-1)

Upper South – Rep +5 (Rep pickups of VA-2, VA-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8)

South Atlantic – Even – (no pickups on either side)

Eastern Great Lakes – Rep +3 (Rep pickups of OH-1, MI-7, IN-8)

South Gulf – Rep +3 (Rep pickups of AL-2, MS-1, LA-3, TX-17, Dem pickup of LA-2)

Western Great Lakes – Dem +1 (Dem pickup of IL-10)

Central Plains – Rep +4 (Rep pickups of IA-3, AR-1, AR-2, KS-3)

Rocky Mountains –

Pacific Coast –

Total National Score – Rep +17

* – Please note that in most cases these ratings were done prior to any polling becoming known.  

Montana-1 – Denny Rehberg/Republican – Montana was the site of a big democratic swing in 2008 as Obama nearly won against McCain four years after Kerry got demolished by Bush.  Maybe that trend will continue, maybe it won’t, but what won’t change is Rehberg’s hold on this district.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Wyoming-1 – Cynthia Lummis/Republican – Lummis had a surprisingly difficult time winning this open seat, as democrat Gary Trauner kept it close most of the way before ultimately falling by 10%.  Seeing as this is Wyoming, it’s likely that Lummis will have this seat for as long as she wants, barring a scandal.  

District PVI – R+20

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Colorado-1 – Diana DeGette/Democrat – From the vast emptiness of Wyoming to the bustle of downtown Denver we move, and boy does the political landscape change.  DeGette probably would have more to sweat in a primary than in a general vs a republican.

District PVI – D+21

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Colorado-2 – Jared Polis/Democrat – The Boulder-based 2nd, along with many college based districts not in the plains or south, is solidly democratic.  It’s on the fringes of what the repubs could conceivably challenge for in the best of red years, but Polis hasn’t drawn any credible opposition.

District PVI – D+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Colorado-3 – John Salazar/Democrat – The 3rd stretches over a wide, mountainous area in the western half of Colorado.  Salazar, who is one of the more conservative democrats in the House, has had a very strong grip on this conservative leaning district, winning with 62% of the vote in both 2006 and 2008 despite McCain beating Obama 50-47.  State representative Scott Tipton, Salazar’s 2006 opponent is back for another run, and he’s barely ahead of a bunch of nobodies looking for the republican nomination.  Given Salazar’s popularity I don’t see a pickup as very likely here.

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Colorado-4 – Betsy Markey/Democrat – The rural eastern part of Colorado is generally very conservative, but a major shift occurred in 2008, as Barack Obama came within 1% of winning the presidential vote here, and Betsy Markey defeated conservative firebrand Marilyn Musgrave by a 56-44 margin.  I tend to think that was more a result of incumbent weakness than anything else.  Regardless, this is going to be a huge battleground in 2008, as the republicans got a very strong candidate in Colorado house minority whip Cory Gardner.  Other candidates in the race include Colorado regent Tom Lucero and Colorado Springs city councilman Diggs Brown.  Markey has been an absolute stalwart in fundraising, having raised 1.17 million, with only Gardner being in the same stratosphere at 596k.  Markey’s voting record has been somewhat pragmatic, and I think she’s positioning herself well, so I want to pick her for a retention.  But seeing just how conservative this district was not long ago, and assuming Gardner makes it out of the primary, I have some serious doubts.  Hickenlooper might be able to provide some coattails at the top of the ticket, but that could be canceled out if Jane Norton is headed for a Senate victory.  Ah, such a tough one to call, kinda like OH-15.  This time though, I go red.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (22nd overall)

National Score – Rep +18

Colorado-5 – Doug Lamborn/Republican – The Colorado Springs-based 5th is the most republican district in Colorado, and should be an easy retention for Lamborn.

District PVI – R+14

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Colorado-6 – Mike Coffman/Republican – This is a seat based mostly in the Denver suburbs that is starting to turn more democratic, but at present, it’s still fairly red.  Looking back on it, with Obama only falling by 6%, the Democrats should have done more to contest this open seat last cycle, which Coffman won with a 60% share.  It’s unlikely to be competitive this cycle, but watch for redistricting in case democrats are holding the hammer.  How they redraw the lines might be dependent on whether Markey survives too.

District PVI – R+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Colorado-7 – Ed Perlmutter/Democrat – The suburban Denver 7th was initially drawn to be a partisan battleground, but it too has trended blue, and is now a D-leaning seat.  Perlmutter won by a huge margin in 2008 but the republicans have a strong challenger for 2010, Aurora city councilman Ryan Frazier.  At present, Perlmutter is leading the fundraising chase 882k to 434k, that combined with the partisan lean of the district lead me to believe that a pickup isn’t likely here.

District PVI – D+4

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

New Mexico-1 – Martin Heinrich/Democrat – The Albuquerque-based 1st was a longtime land of enchanted frustration for the democrats as despite a democratic lean, the district was dominated by republicans for many years.  But opportunity came as incumbent Heather Wilson ran for the open Senate seat, and Martin Heinrich defeated his republican challenger by 12%.  Obama won here by 20% though, so he actually underperformed the top of the ticket, always a bad sign.  Luckily, the republican opposition doesn’t look so tough, former new mexico GOP vice chair Jon Barela is the likely republican nominee.  Heinrich is killing it in fundraising, having raised 1.13 million to Barela’s 293k.  This race is on the board officially, but I’d be stunned if Heinrich were to lose in November.

District PVI – D+5

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

New Mexico-2 – Harry Teague/Democrat – Here’s another big battleground for 2010.  The 2nd, which encompasses much of New Mexico’s southern desert landscape, usually leans republican, but Teague was able to pick up the seat when longtime incumbent Steve Pearce ran for the Senate and got crushed by Tom Udall.  Teague’s victory of 56-44 was strong considering Obama lost to McCain by 50-49.  Pearce is back for a run to reclaim his old seat, and he has railed against Teague’s “liberal” voting record, which has in fact been one of the more conservative in the democratic caucus.  The money race is fairly close at 1.07 million for Teague and 821k for Pearce.  This is another tough call to make, but at the end of the day I think Pearce is a really crappy campaigner, as evidenced by his horrific Senate run in 2008.  Therefore, Teague will win a close one.  Diane Denish leading the top of the ticket will help too.

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Hold

New Mexico-3 – Ben Lujan/Democrat – The mountainous northern part of the state, Lujan won big in an open seat race here in 2008, and the opposition doesn’t look all that strong for 2010.  Plus, the democratic lean of the district makes this one safe.

District PVI – D+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Utah-1 – Bob Bishop/Republican – Heading into Mormon country, Utah is one of the nation’s most conservative states, and this northern Utah district is the 13th most conservative in the country.  No problem for Bishop.  

District PVI – R+21

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Utah-2 – Jim Matheson/Democrat – Utah’s answer to Texas’s Chet Edwards and Mississippi’s Gene Taylor, Jim Matheson has weathered several republican attempts to dislodge him, most notably the 2002 re-districting that was done solely to get rid of him by cutting out Salt Lake City’s west side and replacing it with eastern and southern Utah.  But Matheson remains, and he won by a huge 29% margin in 2008 while his district was a surprisingly close 58-40 spread for John McCain.  Still, you’d expect the republicans to put up a strong challenge in 2010.  Only token opposition is up there right now.  I’m nervous taking a district this conservative off the board entirely, but it’s hard to imagine any scenario in which Matheson loses this cycle.

District PVI – R+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Utah-3 – Jason Chaffetz/Republican – This is the 7th most republican district in the country, and Chaffetz is a weapons-grade wingnut.  Pretty much a perfect match.

District PVI – R+26

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Arizona-1 – Ann Kirkpatrick/Democrat – Kirkpatrick benefitted from a scandal-tainted incumbent retiring in 2008, but had to fight a bit of a home state vote for John McCain as she won this open seat by a 55-39 count.  Republicans claim her victory was scandal-induced, but the field is a bit unsettled in 2010.  The fundraising lead is held by dentist Paul Gosar, but former state senator Rusty Bowers could be a stronger name.  Kirkpatrick has banked 875k so far this cycle, so all things considered her standing looks pretty good.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Arizona-2 – Trent Franks/Republican – Franks presides over largely republican territory in the state’s northwest and west central.  I think he’s safe.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Arizona-3 – Open/Republican – This R-leaning seat in north Phoenix and it’s northern suburbs is open thanks to John Shadegg calling it quits.  The republican primary field is a free-for-all, including state representative Sam Crump, state senators Jim Waring and Pamela Gorman, Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker, and attorney Ben Quayle.  The democrats got a bit of bad news when their #1 choice, Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon decided not to run, but they got a very solid #2 in businessman John Hulburd, who already has a sizeable lead in the fundraising race.  That lead could become larger as the republican primary candidates beat each other up.  McCain won this district by a 56-42 count in 2008, so it’s a tough one for the democrats but not impossible.  If the GOP primary gets ugly then Hulburd might have a shot at pulling an upset.  

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Arizona-4 – Ed Pastor/Democrat – This area consisting of downtown Phoenix, is the most liberal part of the state.  Easy hold for Pastor.

District PVI – D+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Arizona-5 – Harry Mitchell/Democrat – This northeastern Maricopa county district is going to be the site of some serious fireworks in 2010, the question is who will be setting them off?  Mitchell won this seat by defeating uber-wingnut J.D. Hayworth in 2006, then held it against Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert last cycle.  Schweikert is running again, and he is fundraising fairly well at 405k so far, but the republican primary looks to be hotly contested.  Businessman Jim Ward and physician David Salvino are in, but of greater interest is the candidacy of former state representative Susan Bitter Smith, who was somewhat responsible for de-railing Schweikert’s 2008 run thanks to a brutally nasty primary.  This race is going to be a close one, but I have a feeling the environment won’t be a strong argument in Arizona, where McCain provided a good topline for the GOP in 2008.  

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Arizona-6 – Jeff Flake/Republican – This is the most Republican district in Arizona, and Flake’s conservatism fits well here.  

District PVI – R+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Arizona-7 – Raul Grijalva/Democrat – One of only two democratic PVI districts in Arizona, Grijalva is pretty much safe.

District PVI – D+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Arizona-8 – Gabrielle Giffords/Democrat – Giffords won this seat in 2006 and defended it against a strong republican challenger in 2008, winning by 12%.  Her name was floated in both the Senate and gubernatorial races this year but she’s hanging in for re-election.  Giffords has fundraised with the best of them, banking 1.19 million this cycle.  The republican field is splintered and not all that impressive, as the top possible GOP candidates all passed on the race. For what its worth, Iraq war veteran Jesse Kelly holds the fundraising lead, but is behind the incumbent by about 1-5. To be honest, I think Giffords is a rising star in the democratic caucus, and I really don’t understand why so many pundits have this race as a big pickup opportunity for Team Red.  

District PVI – R+4

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Nevada-1 – Shelley Berkley/Democrat – This seat, lying right in the heart of Las Vegas, is very democratic.  Berkley has never really had to fight much for her seat but this year looks to be very ugly for Democrats in Nevada.  Obama cleaned up here 64-34 and Berkley won by almost 40% that year, but 2008 might as well be 1908 when you consider how much the landscape has changed here.  Craig Lake Jr is the likely republican nominee and he is off to a decent fundraising start in the 250k range.  If you haven’t guessed by now, the only reason I even have this race in play is because of the double albatross at the top of the ticket, Harry Reid for Senate and Rory Reid for governor.  I still think Berkley’s going to win, but she’d better be willing to work because otherwise I could see this one becoming somewhat Coakley-esque.

District PVI – D+10

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Nevada-2 – Dean Heller/Republican – This district consists of pretty much the whole state minus Las Vegas.  Heller won this seat in an open seat race in 2006 and held it by 10% in 2008.  The democratic opposition doesn’t look very strong this cycle which is a shame since Obama and McCain finished tied at 49% in 2008 and this district isn’t the republican stronghold it once was.

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Nevada-3 – Dina Titus/Democratic – The 3rd district, which consists mostly of the Vegas suburbs, has been a partisan battleground for many years.  Titus knocked off 3-term incumbent Jon Porter by a 47-42-11 plurality to win the seat, a bit of an underperformance against Obama’s 55-43 win over McCain.  Titus has fundraised very well at 993k so far this cycle, and the republican opposition is headed for a tough primary.  The leading candidates are former state senator Joe Heck and real estate investor Robert Lauer, neither of whom is over 200k raised.  However, this is a race where I don’t think fundraising is going to matter very much.  Las Vegas has gotten pounded, and I mean pounded by the recession, way more than your typical American city, which is also going to be an albatross for Berkley in NV-1.  Secondly, the Reid father-son pairing at the top of the ticket is going to really be a drag.  I like Titus, but sadly due to factors outside of her control, she’s fighting a battle she can’t win.  

District PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Moderate Rep Pickup (23rd overall)

National Score – Rep +19

Idaho-1 – Walt Minnick/Democrat – I have a feeling that due to his conservative voting record and apparent popularity in the district, that Walt Minnick could be in better shape than some would suspect. (maybe similar to Bobby Bright in AL-2, which we found out about last week after I had already made my preliminary call there)  That being said, this is an extremely republican district, the 27th most conservative in the nation in fact, and Minnick only won here because former incumbent Bill Sali was a lunatic.  Former marine corps major Vaughn Ward is the leading candidate for the GOP, having been promoted by the NRCC’s “young guns” program.  Minnick is way ahead in fundraising with 1.16 million, a huge total, with Ward at 341k.  Maybe if the environment wasn’t as bad as it is, I’d stick to my suspicions and stick with Minnick to retain, but in the absence of any polling to corroborate my thoughts, I will defer to the PVI and give Team Red a pickup here.

District PVI – R+18

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (24th overall)

National Score – Rep +20

Idaho-2 – Mike Simpson/Republican – This is going to be an easy win for Simpson, as this part of Idaho is just as conservative as it’s counterpart.

District PVI – R+17

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Oregon-1 – David Wu/Democrat – Wu went through the 2008 election without a republican challenger, and he romped while Obama fought to a 61-38 win over John McCain here.  Sports management consultant Robert Cornilles is in the race against Wu, but aside from being a self-funder, I don’t see much appeal around him.  

District PVI – D+8

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Oregon-2 – Greg Walden/Republican – The lone republican in Oregon’s house delegation, Walden represents the eastern 2/3 of the state, which is rural and mostly conservative.  He’s safe.

District PVI – R+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Oregon-3 – Earl Blumenauer/Democrat – This district, based in Portland, is a rather blue liberal bastion.  No republican is going to be winning here for quite some time.  

District PVI – D+19

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Oregon-4 – Peter Defazio/Democrat – Republican hopes in the Eugene/Springfield-based 4th were pretty much dependent on Defazio running for the open gubernatorial seat.  But he declined that, and the republicans top candidate, Springfield mayor Sid Leiken, just hit the eject button on his candidacy.  

District PVI – D+2

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Oregon-5 – Kurt Schrader/Democrat – If there’s going to be any activity in the Beaver/Duck State in 2010, it’ll probably be here.  Schrader won this district in a 2008 open seat race by 16% while Obama won the district by 11%, a remarkable turnaround considering that Bush carried this district twice.  State representative Scott Brunn is the likely republican nominee, but he’s got an uphill climb in both the money race and against an electorate that is moving pretty quickly to the left.  

District PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Washington-1 – Jay Inslee/Democrat – We turn our attention now to Washington state, where Inslee sits in a district of mostly Seattle’s northern suburbs.  A fairly democratic district, it shouldn’t be all that competitive in 2010.

District PVI – D+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Washington-2 – Rick Larsen/Democrat – This district is less democratic than WA-1, but it doesn’t look as though Larsen has much to worry about.  There’s only one republican running against him and it’s somebody in the “some dude” category.  

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Washington-3 – Open/Democrat – The 3rd, which covers most of southwestern Washington, is going to be the site of some strong political fighting this fall as incumbent Brian Baird is retiring.  The primary fields look to be crowded.  The democratic primary will be contested by state representative Denny Heck, state senator Craig Pridemore, and Hispanic activist Maria Rodriguez-Salazar.  Heck is seen as the slight favorite at this point but it’s anyone’s game really.  On the republican side, retired marine David Hedrick, financial advisor David Castillo, and Washougal city councilman Jon Russell are in, but the prospective favorite is youthful state representative Jaime Herrera.  My feeling is, if Herrera does win the nomination, the repubs will probably score a pickup here, but if she loses the primary then the dems will probably hold the seat.  For now, I’m going with Team Red, but stay tuned on this one.

District PVI – Even

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (25th overall)

National Score – Rep +21  

Washington-4 – Doc Hastings/Republican – One of only two safe R seats in Washington and the most conservative seat in the state, Hastings is safe here.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Washington-5 – Cathy McMorris-Rodgers/Republican – This western Washington district was actually pretty close in 2008 as McCain beat Obama 52-46, but Rodgers steamrolled to a big win.  She’s safe.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Washington-6 – Norm Dicks/Democrat – The long serving Dicks, representing this district on the Olympia peninsula, is very solidly entrenched and shouldn’t have anything to worry about here.

District PVI – D+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Washington-7 – Jim McDermott/Democrat – This district is centered around Seattle and is one of the country’s most democratic.  Safe.

District PVI – D+31

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Washington-8 – Dave Reichert/Republican – One of the few incumbents that have survived the democratic onslaught in recent years within a democratic district, Reichert is used to having to fight for re-election, and this year looks no different.  The expected democratic candidate, Suzan Delbene, has actually outraised Reichert 1.04 million to 985k and leads him by an even wider margin in cash on hand.  It’s uncertain how well of a campaigner Delbene is, and if she’ll be able to blunt Reichert’s obvious popularity in the district, but with a democratic leaning electorate and a cash advantage, she’s got the tools necessary to pull off an upset.  This one is going to be one to watch for sure.  Sidebar: in the event that Reichert pulls off another win in 2010, redistricting is going to be a major problem for him as the democrats hold the hammer (unless WA does independent redistricting, I’m not sure).

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Rep Hold

Washington-9 – Adam Smith/Democrat – Smith’s southern Puget Sound based district is fairly democratic for the most part, and he’s very well entrenched.  Methinks he’s safe.

District PVI – D+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Alaska-1 – Don Young/Republican – Young shocked many when he got past Ethan Berkowitz despite the ethical clouds hanging over his head, perhaps the result of Sarah Palin’s coattails at the top of the ticket.  (Which consequently nearly saved Ted Stevens against Mark Begich in the Senate race)  For what it’s worth, he’s facing a primary challenge from Andrew Halcro.  The only democrat in the race is state representative Harry Crawford, who I admittedly don’t know much about.  There’s always the chance that Young could get swept down by corruption ahead of the election, but otherwise I think this seat stays red.

District PVI – R+13

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Region Recap – There’s a lot of competitiveness in the mountain states this year, and ultimately I see a lot of the toss up races not going our way, at least not at the moment.  I have the republicans picking up 4 seats, CO-4, NV-3, ID-1, and WA-3, bringing them to 25 total pickups and a national score of Rep +21 with only one region to go.  The Democrats really don’t have many good opportunities at pickups, with AZ-3 and WA-8 being the best opportunities.  

Final stop…The Pacific Coast…next time

With redistricting looming, one of the most important parts of the 2010 elections (at least for most states) is the race for the state legislatures. Democrats won big in 2006 and 2008, but with the national climate souring, local Democrats may find themselves dragged down by their Washington counterparts. So I thought I’d take a look at the state legislative elections going on this year; first, I’ll be looking at the chambers controlled by the Democrats, and second, I’ll take a look at Republican-held chambers. Some of this is still pretty tentative, as filing deadlines for most states have yet to pass, so candidate recruitment is still a question.

A few notes first: there are a few legislatures not up this year: Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia will have their elections in 2011, while the Kansas and New Mexico Senates are both elected in Presidential years. Finally, the Nebraska unicameral is, of course, nonpartisan.

Also, for the current composition, Democrats are listed first, Republicans second, and independents/others listed third. Vacancies are not noted, and the numbers were pulled from Wikipedia, so they’re not perfect. Also, I am using the generic term “House” for the lower house of each legislature. I know some are called Assembly, it’s just simpler to do it this way.

Finally, I obviously don’t have my ear to the ground in all 40-odd states that I’m covering, so a local perspective is always welcome.

Democrats are going to be mostly playing defense this year, defending legislatures they won in 2006 and 2008, states where their popularity is lagging, like North Carolina, and states where the Republicans at the top of the ticket are expected to have a good year, like Pennsylvania and Ohio. I’ve ranked them based on the likelihood of flipping, and comments follow all except the safe legislatures.

Lean Republican takeover

Indiana House (Currently 52/48) – Democrats were expected to lose this chamber in 2008, but thanks to the strong Obama campaign, they were able to actually increase their caucus by 1 seat. It seems much less likely that, in the negative national climate for the Democrats, they will manage to pull off that feat again. Compounding problems is the fact that Democrats are only contesting 18 Republican seats, while Republicans are running against 41 of the 52 House Democrats.

Pennsylvania House (Currently 104/99) – Democrats have managed to cling to a slim majority through the last two cycles, thanks to Democratic landslides at the top of the ticket. With Corbett on track to clean up in 2010, the trend will likely reverse itself.

Tossup

Alabama Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 60/45) – One of the remnants of the Old South, the Alabama legislature has remained in the hands of the Democrats since the end of Reconstruction. The Republicans have had several special election victories lately, shaving away at the Democrats’ majorities in each chamber. The Democrats here have weathered plenty of bad election cycles, but it is unclear whether they will be able to do so again in 2010.

Iowa House (Currently 56/44) – Before 2006, the Iowa legislature remained split almost evenly, with voters selecting narrow Republican majorities. The Democrats, of course, had two great election cycles, winning a majority in 2006 and narrowly expanding the majority in 2008. Unfortunately for them, Terry Brandstad looks likely to decimate Chet Culver in the gubernatorial election, which may spell doom for the House majority.

Montana House (Currently 50/50) – The Montana House is split right down the middle, with only Brian Schweitzer giving the Dems control. The Republicans will only need to net one seat to win it back.

New York Senate (Currently 32/30) – Possibly the most dysfunctional state house in the country, the New York Senate’s pro-Republican gerrymander has almost entirely survived three successive Democratic landslides, with the Republicans needing only one seat to tie and two to take back control. Democrats will have to guard all their seats in order to prevent another decade in the weeds.

North Carolina Senate (Currently 30/20) and House (Currently 68/52) – North Carolina’s government is extremely unpopular, from Governor Bev Perdue down to the state legislature. The Republicans are hoping to finally take control of the legislature, which I believe they have failed to do since Reconstruction. They are contesting every Democratic seat in the Senate and nearly 60 of the 68 Democratic House seats, while the Democrats have left a majority of the Republican seats uncontested.

Ohio House (Currently 53/46) – Another Republican gerrymander which finally broke in 2008, Democrats are defending a narrow majority. Term limits will give Republicans a shot at ten open Democratic seats, and a number of freshmen are up also. Compounding matters for the Democrats is Gov. Ted Strickland’s fall in popularity; they don’t have a 60-38 margin to back them up this time.

Wisconsin Senate (Currently 18/15) and House (Currently 52/46/1) – The Wisconsin Assembly was another house where Democrats gained a narrow majority in 2008, while they picked up the Senate in 2006. In the Senate, they will be defending four freshman who scored narrow wins in 2006, while in the House the Republicans will need to pick up four seats to regain control (there is an independent who is retiring in 2010, but I’m not sure which party he caucuses with, if any).

Lean Democratic

Colorado Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 37/27/1) – Democrats were riding high in Colorado earlier this decade, winning two Senate seats, three House seats, the Governor’s mansion and the state legislature. Bill Ritter’s retirement is probably a blessing to them, as John Hickenlooper is looking to be a much better candidate under which the legislature can run. I won’t be surprised to see the margins narrow in the 2010 election, but Republicans still have an uphill climb to win back the legislature, especially since they have Dick Wadhams running the show.

Delaware House (Currently 24/17) – It took Democrats a long time to scrape together a majority here; the previous Speaker of the House, Republican Terry Spence, served in that capacity for over two decades, just to give you an idea of how solid the Republican majority had been. But, times change, and the Delaware Republican Party is on the ropes, given that Mike Castle is their only candidate able to win a major statewide election these days. Good news for Democrats is a couple of Republicans in vulnerable districts have opted to retire, giving them offensive opportunities as they defend their current 24 seats.

Maine Senate (Currently 20/15) – Although solidly Democratic on the Presidential level, Maine remains more competitive on the local level. Republicans controlled the House up to 2006, while the Senate has remained closely-divided in recent years, with the Democrats only hitting 20 seats in the 2008 elections. Democrats should be favored to hold the Senate, but with the race for Governor still nebulous, it’s hard to say what party will have coattails.

New Hampshire Senate (Currently 14/10) and House (Currently 223/176) – It was an historic win for New Hampshire Democrats in 2006; the state legislature hadn’t been controlled by the Democrats since the 19th century. Of course, a big swing one way can swing right back in a bad year. Luckily for Democrats, John Lynch will be leading the ticket again, likely winning an overwhelming majority of the vote.

Likely Democratic

Iowa Senate (Currently 32/18) – While Democrats have a large majority in the Senate, 19 of the 25 seats up this year were won by Democrats in 2006, giving the Republicans ample targets. Boosting the Republicans’ chances is Terry Branstad’s likely landslide in November. However, it still requires a 7-seat swing to tie, which is a tall order regardless of the number of potential targets.

Michigan House (Currently 66/43) – With John Cherry out of the picture, Michigan Democrats actually have a fighting chance at the governor’s mansion, which is good for Dems downticket; there will be no double-digit victory pulling them over the finish line this time, but neither will they be facing a tsunami in the other direction.

Nevada Senate (Currently 12/9) – With only 11 of the 21 seats up, and only five of the 11 held by Democrats, Republicans would need to pick up two of the five while not losing any of their own seats to take control of the Senate. Not an impossible task, but very difficult, given that the Democrats have at least one or two seats targeted as well. The unpopularity of the Reid boys would be the only thing that could drag the Senate’s Democrats down.

Oregon Senate (Currently 18/12) and House (Currently 36/24) – Democrats don’t hold an overwhelming majority in the Oregon legislature, but it looks like Democrats in Oregon have managed to escape the poor national climate. With John Kitzhaber and Ron Wyden leading the ticket, they shouldn’t have too much problem retaining their majorities.

Safe Democratic

Arkansas Senate (Currently 27/8) and House (Currently 72/28)

California Senate (Currently 25/14) and House (Currently 49/29/1)

Connecticut Senate (Currently 24/12) and House (Currently 114/37)

Delaware Senate (Currently 15/6)

Hawaii Senate (Currently 23/2) and House (Currently 45/6)

Illinois Senate (Currently 37/22) and House (Currently 70/48)

Kentucky House (Currently 65/35)

Maine House (Currently 95/55/1)

Maryland Senate (Currently 33/14) and House (Currently 104/36/1)

Massachusetts Senate (Currently 34/4) and House (Currently 144/16)

Minnesota Senate (Currently 46/21) and House (Currently 87/47)

Nevada House (Currently 28/14)

New Mexico House (Currently 45/25)

New York House (Currently 106/42/2)

Rhode Island Senate (Currently 33/4/1) and House (Currently 69/6)

Vermont Senate (Currently 22/7/1) and House (Currently 94/48/8)

Washington Senate (Currently 31/18) and House (Currently 61/37)

West Virginia Senate (Currently 26/8) and House (Currently 69/31)

Democrats hold significant majorities in all of these legislatures, and even in states where Republicans are experiencing unprecedented chances at Congressional seats, they are hampered by poor candidate recruitment downticket.

Texas is going to add 3 or 4 Congressional seats after the 2010 census. At least theoretically, there are four possible types of Congressional maps that could be drawn for Texas in 2010. In rough order of probability, they are:

1) A Republican Gerrymander

2) A Bi-Partisan Compromise Map

3) A Court Drawn Map

4) A Democratic Gerrymander

Texas is a very easy state to gerrymander. Geographically, Texas has a number of large population centers – chiefly Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Austin, with vast sparsely populated rural areas in between. For example, it is not difficult to draw a geographically relatively compact looking district which start on the New Mexico border but jut into downtown Fort Worth. But the reality in terms of population distribution will belie the appearance of the map.

Another basic fact about Texas is it has a very large number of counties – 254. As a result, it is only rarely really necessary to split counties up between multiple districts for the purpose of achieving population equality. The real reasons for most county splits you will see on a map of Texas are political, and sometimes racial in the case of Voting Rights Act districts.

So any time you see a map of Texas that splits up lots of counties, you can be pretty sure that it is a major gerrymander. It’s just simply not necessary to split up counties for anything other than an extreme gerrymander.

A compromise map would be most likely if neither party completely controls the redistricting process. Currently Republicans have complete control Texas’ redistricting apparatus. That could change if Texas Democrats can manage to win back either the State House or the Governorship, with the Governorship looking like the likelier possibility of the two at this point.

A compromise map would give the Legislature (and the Governor) a chance to change the overall structure. A court drawn map, on the other hand, would likely maintain the basic structure of most or all existing districts.

In the case of split control, both Democrats and Republicans would have some incentives to compromise, but also some incentives to block any map and throw things into the courts, if they were not happy with a compromise map.

Democrats would want to roll back the worst abuses of the existing Republican Gerrymander, replacing many of the current districts (which stretch from the middle of major cities out hundreds of miles away via spiraling rural spaghetti strands 1 or 2 counties in width) with more geographically coherent districts confined to major metro areas and their immediate suburbs. This would involve substantial overall changes to the existing redistricting scheme – something Democrats could only achieve with assurance through a compromise map. On the other hand, the Republican gerrymander has started to come under some real strain, and a number of GOP incumbents are in increasingly serious long term danger. If the basic structure of the existing gerrymander remains in place without major political alteration, that will remain the case. So if Democrats cannot get what they want through a compromise map, they are unlikely to hesitate too much before throwing things to the courts.

On the other hand, Republicans would want to protect their incumbents in major metropolitan areas who are coming under increasing threat. In the case of many districts, such as TX-24, that can only be done by changing the basic structure of the districts. So Republicans will want to have a chance to change things to protect their existing gerrymander. While a court plan might strengthen some GOP incumbents, there are many that could be gravely endangered by the sorts of relatively small changes that a court might make when adding new districts and shifting boundaries around to achieve population equality. On the other hand, if Republicans do not feel that their incumbents are generally being well protected, they may conclude that taking the risk of a court drawn map is a better option.

This is my attempt at creating a relatively realistic compromise map. Geographically, I tried to generally respect county lines. Because nearly all of Texas’ population growth is Hispanic, and also because more Democratic districts are necessary to protect Republican incumbents, 3 of 4 new seats are Hispanic Voting Rights Act Districts. On the other hand, if no new Hispanic Voting Rights districts were added and all the new seats were designed to elect Republicans in the immediate term, Democrats could potentially flip many more than 3 seats by 2020. I reduced the mixing of rural areas with very different suburban and urban areas, and reduced the number of spaghetti strand districts – except in the Rio Grande Valley, where it is necessary to avoid over-packing Hispanic voters in order to comply with the Voting Rights Act. TX-21 is also still a bit of a spaghetti strand district, but other than that, I think the districts are generally much more compact and sensible than the current districts. In total there are 14 Democratic districts, 20 Republican districts, and 2 swing districts (TX-6 and TX-10). One Republican district would likely be won by a Democratic incumbent, Chet Edwards in TX-17, but if he retires the seat will very probably go GOP. Democrats would have a pretty good chance of winning both of the swing districts as well, because Republican primary voters in Texas have a hard time nominating the sorts of candidates with the broad appeal necessary to win in swing districts.

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East Texas

East Texas as a region was one of the big losers of the 2003 redistricting. While East Texas has the population to support 3 or 4 Congressional districts, there is only 1 true East Texas district – TX-01. This was an intentional part of the Republican gerrymander of Texas. East Texas was tied in with suburban Republican areas in a series of Dallas and Houston based districts designed to defeat rural East Texas Democratic incumbents and replace them with Suburban Dallas/Houston Republican challengers. This compromise map tries to change that a little bit, while still being basically friendly to the existing Republican incumbents. Under this map, there are 4 districts that can reasonably be considered predominantly East Texas districts.

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TX-01

Incumbent: Louie Gohmert (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	73%	16%	2%	10%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	31%	69%
New District	29%	70%
Change	-2%	+1%

TX-01 remains very similar. A few counties shift, but overall the district remains heavily Republican and centered on Tyler. Louie Gohmert is not going anywhere.

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TX-02

Incumbent: Ted Poe (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	72%	18%	3%	7%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	40%	60%
New District	34%	65%
Change	-6%	+5%

TX-02 shifts out of Houston and further into Harris County, as other districts collapse towards Houston. But Humble, where Ted Poe lives, remains in the district. Democrats are not happy about submerging African American voters in Beaumont in an unwinnable district, and would much rather link Jefferson County with something competitive in the Houston area, to make a district that someone like Nick Lampson could win.

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TX-04

Incumbent: Ralph Hall (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	78%	13%	2%	7%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	30%	69%
New District	30%	69%
Change	0%	0%

TX-04 moves out of fast growing Collin County and is now more of a North-East Texas district, with Rockwall County appended. It remains heavily Republican, and after Ralph Hall eventually retires will elect another Republican.

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TX-36

Incumbent: None

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	69%	15%	2%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	…	…
New District	31%	68%
Change	…	…

TX-36 is a new East-Central Texas Republican district. As I mentioned, in the previous Republican gerrymander, Tom DeLay split up East Texas between many different districts based in the suburbs of Dallas and Houston, because he did not trust East Texas not to keep on electing Democratic incumbents to Congress. That is no longer an issue, particularly in a compromise map. Because the political reason for the Dallas and Houston suburbs splitting up and dominating East Texas no longer really exists, East Texas can have more districts to itself. TX-36 will elect a Republican. The only question is which part of the district that Republican will come from.

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West Texas

All three West Texas districts retain the same basic shape in this compromise map. However, their boundaries are smoothed out because the Republican political desire to ensure the defeat of former Democratic representative Charlie Stenholm is no longer a factor.

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TX-13

Incumbent: Mac Thornberry (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	75%	5%	3%	17%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	23%	77%
New District	22%	77%
Change	-1%	0%

TX-13 has to expand to meet its population quota, but still connects Amarillo and Wichita Falls, and is still ridiculously lopsidedly Republican. McCain beat Obama by 55% here.

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TX-19

Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	64%	6%	2%	28%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	27%	72%
New District	27%	72%
Change	0%	0%

TX-19 remains a Lubbock-Abilene district, but is no longer quite so gerrymandered, because it is no longer necessary to ensure the defeat of Charlie Stenholm. Democrats and Hispanics voting rights advocates look at the high Hispanic populations in parts of TX-19 and TX-11 and dream of a Hispanic majority district in West Texas, reaching down into El Paso and Del Rio, would look like. That could happen in a Democratic gerrymander, and will likely happen regardless in 2020, but probably won’t happen in a 2010 compromise map.

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TX-11

Incumbent: Mike Conaway (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	65%	4%	2%	29%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	24%	76%
New District	24%	75%
Change	0%	-1%

TX-11 was created in 2003 to give former GOP House Speaker Tom Craddick’s Midland a distinct to “dominate.” It remains a Midland-Odessa dominated district, but is sucked into the Hill Country towards San Antonio, because the population numbers simply are not there in West Texas. If a West Texas GOP district were to be sacrificed to create a new Hispanic majority district, look for it to be TX-11 that gets the axe. Craddick remains controversial even among some Republicans, and if something has to be sacrificed, many would rather that it be Midland than anything else.

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Dallas-Fort Worth

In Dallas-Fort Worth, this compromise map generally tries to respect county and municipal lines, to the extent practicable. Incumbent Republicans are generally protected (with the exceptions of Joe Barton and possibly Pete Sessions), and a new Democratic Hispanic seat is added. Dallas-Fort Worth districts are actually generally restricted to the actual Dallas-Fort Worth area, rather than extending hundreds of miles away into different parts of Texas.

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TX-03

Incumbent: Sam Johnson (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	78%	5%	7%	10%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	42%	57%
New District	36%	62%
Change	-6%	+5%

Collin County has grown enough in the last 10 years that it now can have a Congressional District all to itself, and still have some room to spare. TX-03 ditches its old portion of Dallas County, and also the part of the City of Dallas that is in Collin County. In the process, it becomes much more safely Republican. This TX-03 is strongly Republican enough to withstand even a very powerful continued trend towards Democrats.

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TX-26

Incumbent: Michael Burgess (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	77%	6%	5%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	41%	58%
New District	37%	62%
Change	-4%	+4%

Like Collin County, Denton County has also grown a great deal in the last 10 years. But it is not quite large enough to have a whole Congressional District to itself, so TX-26 reaches into Collin County. In any sort of compromise map, TX-26’s ridiculous tentacle reaching into heavily African American parts of Fort Worth will be dismantled. Democrats would rather throw redistricting to the courts than abide a map that did not rectify that wrong. On the other side, Republicans will go along with dismantling the Great Tarrant Tentacle because they will want to protect Burgess through 2020.

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TX-12

Incumbent: Kay Granger (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	72%	7%	5%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	36%	63%
New District	40%	59%
Change	+4%	-4%

TX-12 is brought within Tarrant County. It remains strongly Republican, though not as overwhelmingly so as before. However, Kay Granger is relatively moderate for a Texas Republican, so even if Fort Worth continues to become more Democratic, she will be less in danger than another Republican might be.

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TX-24

Incumbent: Kenny Marchant (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	75%	5%	8%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	44%	55%
New District	37%	62%
Change	-7%	+7%

The southern part of TX-24, (Grand Prairie, Cedar Hill, and Duncanville) is lopped off, and TX-24 becomes a North Tarrant/Dallas County district, with a small piece of South-West Collin County thrown in. The new TX-24 is much more Republican. Formerly it was only a matter of time before Marchant succumbed to a Democratic challenger. In this new district, he stands a good chance of surviving another decade.

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TX-34

Incumbent: None

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	22%	20%	3%	54%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	…	…
New District	71%	28%
Change	…	…

TX-34 is a new Democratic Dallas-Fort Worth district with a small Hispanic majority. The 54% majority is small enough that there is a good chance that this district would not actually end up electing a Hispanic representative. Slight changes can increase the size of the Hispanic majority, most notably in the Tarrant County part of the district. But if you do that, then there are extra African American voters lying around. If they ended up in TX-12, 24, or 6, they would make those districts substantially more Democratic. From a partisan perspective, that would be good for Democrats, but endangering too many GOP incumbents would probably be a deal breaker for the GOP. So in a compromise map, the end result in the Dallas-Fort Worth area might be the creation of a Hispanic VRA district, but not one that is too heavily Hispanic.

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TX-06

Incumbent: Joe Barton (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	56%	16%	7%	21%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	40%	60%
New District	52%	48%
Change	+12%	-12%

Even after the creation of a new Hispanic majority TX-34 packed full of as many minority voters as possible, and after Eddie Bernice Johnson’s TX-30 is similarly packed full of minority voters, there are still Democratic votes left over in Dallas-Fort Worth, particularly in the Southern Mid-Cities. There are three ways that these extra Democratic votes could be dealt with.

A) They could be split up between tendrils of multiple GOP districts spiraling out in all directions for hundreds of miles.

B) They could be combined in one district to create a third solidly Democratic district in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. This could be done while making TX-34 more heavily Hispanic, taking out African American voters and adding them to another district (in this case, TX-6).

C) Some could be put in one district, but not enough to make the district solidly Democratic. In other words, a swing district could be created.

Democrats would balk at option A, while Republicans would balk at option B. In any sort of compromise map, therefore, option C is the most likely. This is one area where compromise would probably be most difficult, and where either side could easily throw in the towel on negotiations and decide to let the courts draw the map.

On the GOP side, for there to be a compromise, something in the Dallas-Fort Worth area has to be sacrificed. TX-6’s status a safe GOP district is a logical choice. The new TX-6 basically consists of the city limits of Arlington, Grand Prairie, Duncanville, Cedar Hill, and a small piece of Irving. Incumbent GOP Representative Joe Barton has talked about retiring, and this redistricting could push him – voluntarily or involuntarily – out of Congress. If he chose not to retire, Barton would have a chance of holding this seat for a while. But if he did, or even if he did not, Democrats would have a stable of strong potential candidates for this swing district, such as State Representatives Kirk England, Chris Turner, and Paula Pierson.

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TX-32

Incumbent: Pete Sessions (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	62%	12%	8%	18%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	46%	53%
New District	45%	54%
Change	-1%	+1%

This new TX-32 loses the heavily Hispanic arm reaching down to Oak Cliff to the new TX-34. The current TX-32 actually does not have a white majority, but this re-drawing does. While the Obama percentage does not decrease by much, Pete Sessions is probably made a bit safer than might appear. In the current district, it is only a matter of time and Hispanic turnout before Sessions loses. But with this new district, many Democratic base voters are swapped out for North Dallas swing voters who may have voted for Barack Obama, but will at least consider voting GOP. But even though this new TX-32 extends slightly into Collin County, up to the edge of the Plano city limits, it is not necessarily safe GOP for a decade. It’s just a basic unavoidable fact that Northern Dallas county is changing demographically and politically. It would take either the removal of much of TX-32 from Dallas County or some major gerrymandering in order to make it really and permanently safe GOP. That could theoretically be accomplished by having TX-30 (already well packed at 78% Obama) extend a tendril up the LBJ freeway (towards, but not actually into Richardson) to pick up Democratic precincts, and rotating TX-32, TX-24, TX-12, and TX-6, and TX-30 all counter-clockwise in a circle around TX-34. But that would push TX-6 into heavily African American precincts in TX-30, turning it from a swing district into a safe Democratic district. TX-12 could also be endangered one day by being dragged into Arlington. Alternatively, TX-05 could pick up lots of Democratic precincts from TX-30, to make up room from TX-30’s hypothetical LBJ arm. But that would be a GOP gerrymander, not a compromise map. Unless Democrats got something major in return, they would be foolish to allow anything like that.

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TX-30

Incumbent: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	30%	43%	2%	25%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	82%	18%
New District	78%	21%
Change	-4%	+3%

This new TX-30 gives up Hispanic areas near down town Dallas to TX-34 and makes up the population loss by extending further east into suburbs like Mesquite. This makes it marginally less Democratic, but it is still the most lopsided district in the state on the Obama/McCain measure.

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TX-05

Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	76%	7%	3%	14%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	36%	63%
New District	31%	68%
Change	-5%	+5%

TX-6 moves not only out of Dallas County and also more out of the rural areas to which it was previously attached. Instead, it becomes an exurban ring district around the southern half of Dallas-Fort Worth. From Garland, it goes through the counties of Kaufman, Ellis, Johnson, and finally Parker to the west of Fort Worth. Geographically, this does look somewhat odd, but these counties have a lot in common – certainly much more so than North Dallas and rural Cherokee county, as in the former district.

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Central Texas

For the purposes of this map, I am using a broad definition of Central Texas, including everything from Waco all the way down Interstate-35 to San Antonio. The 7 Central Texas districts are largely confined to areas that can be reasonably considered part of Central Texas, if a broad definition is used. The safety of Chet Edwards is traded for the safety of John Carter, Austin is put largely back together again, Lamar Smith is made very safe, and Ciro Rodriguez gets a district entirely within Bexar county.

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TX-17

Incumbent: Chet Edwards (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	61%	19%	3%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	32%	67%
New District	40%	59%
Change	+8%	-8%

Democrats and Republicans make a trade. Chet Edwards, the only white Democrat to survive redistricting in 2003, is a less ridiculously Republican (but still Republican) district. In exchange, John Carter is given a district which he should be able to hold for the longer term. TX-17 becomes much like it was before 2003 Redistricting – centered on McLennan and Bell counties. The Fort Worth suburbs in the north are gone, as is Brazos County in the south. Edwards might like to keep Brazos county, but Brazos, Bell, and McLennan counties cannot all be in the same district without being split, because the combined populations are too large. Edwards should be safe in this district, but when he retires it will flip to the Republicans.

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TX-31

Incumbent: John Carter (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	79%	4%	3%	14%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	42%	58%
New District	35%	63%
Change	-7%	+5%

TX-31 is the other half of the trade. John Carter has started feeling pressure to his re-election prospects on two fronts. First, Williamson County is undergoing the process of being assimilated into the weirdness of Austin. Second, Bell County (home to Fort Hood) has been becoming less favorable to the GOP. Killeen’s large and steadily growing African American population combined with the unpopularity of the Iraq war helped make Bell County swing much more Democratic in 2008. That could turn out to be a one time event, but it might not. In any event, John Carter could not feel safe in a district that consisted only of Williamson and Bell counties. So this keeps Williamson County but bypasses Bell, instead heading to the around it to the west, and then north as far as the outskirts of Fort Worth’s exurbs. This change makes the district once again heavily Republican, but if Williamson County does the same thing it has done over the past 10 years, TX-31 could conceivably become more competitive again as 2020 approaches.

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TX-25

Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	46%	13%	6%	35%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	59%	40%
New District	73%	25%
Change	+14%	-15%

Austin is put back together, something which will happen if Democrats have any so whatsoever in Texas redistricting, and probably even if they do not. However, Travis County has a population of about a million people, so it will have to be split somehow between (at least) two Congressional districts regardless. The split in this map is by no means the optimal scenario for Democrats, as Democratic votes are packed into TX-25. In fact, the rest of Travis County not in this TX-25 only voted 52-46 Obama. For the record, Travis County could be split east-west almost exactly along the line of I-35. If that were done and TX-10 otherwise were the same as on this map, TX-25 would be a 61% Obama district and TX-10 would be 56% Obama – enough to send another Austin area Democrat to Congress alongside Lloyd Doggett. On the other hand, in a GOP gerrymander competitive Austin area counties could be parceled out between multiple surrounding rural districts. So Democrats would be very foolish to accept anything less than at least two Democratic or winnable Democratic districts out of the Austin area. A court drawn map would almost certainly be more favorable.

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TX-10

Incumbent: Mike McCaul (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	73%	5%	4%	18%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	44%	55%
New District	48%	50%
Change	+4%	-5%

Even after the creation of a TX-25 that is packed full of Democratic votes, and is more Democratic than Travis County as a whole, there is left over competitive territory in Travis, Hays, Caldwell, and Bastrop counties. Those counties have to go somewhere. They could be split up between multiple districts, but that would be a Republican gerrymander. There’s simply no alternative in a compromise map to another Austin area district winnable by Democrats. To Mike McCaul’s chagrin, TX-10 becomes a real live swing district. Democrats have a number of strong potential candidates for this TX-10, including State Representatives Valinda Bolton, Donna Howard, and Patrick Rose. While this district voted narrowly for McCain, I have a very hard time imagining that it will stay Republican all the way through 2020.

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TX-20

Incumbent: Charlie Gonzalez (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	30%	8%	3%	58%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	63%	36%
New District	59%	40%
Change	-4%	+4%

Yes, I mixed up the colors between TX-20 and TX-23. TX-20 is light blue, while TX-23 is light pink.

There is now a high enough Hispanic population in Bexar county to support 2 Congressional districts with healthy Hispanic majorities. Charlie Gonzalez will be safe in TX-20.

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TX-20

Incumbent: Ciro Rodriguez (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	30%	8%	3%	59%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	51%	48%
New District	58%	41%
Change	+7%	-7%

TX-23 is no longer a sprawling mega-district, extending from San Antonio to El Paso. It is now all in San Antonio. Ciro Rodriguez should like that fact, and will like the new, much smaller, and more Democratic TX-23.

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TX-21

Incumbent: Lamar Smith (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	70%	6%	3%	21%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	41%	58%
New District	32%	67%
Change	-9%	+9%

Lamar Smith’s TX-21 is gracefully extracted from its tenuous perch in downtown Austin. Because there are now two Hispanic Congressional seats entirely within Bexar county, its piece of San Antonio also becomes smaller, whiter, and more intensely Republican. To get the rest of its population, it goes east through a spaghetti strand line of counties roughly following I-10 into the Houston exurbs. This arrangement does not make much sense, but is the only real option if Austin is not to be diluted and gerrymandered (which would be a dealbreaker for Democrats). It can’t go South because it cannot mess with Voting Rights Hispanic districts. It can’t go West because there is not enough room in West Texas even for TX-11, 13, and 19 as it is. So there has to be something connecting parts of San Antonio, Austin, and/or Houston. In this case, TX-21 is it. After making this map, I realized that it could actually go into Fort Bend County rather than Harris, leaving all of Western Harris County in TX-7.

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Houston

Under this map, Houston is pretty clearly the most gerrymandered part of Texas. That is an inevitable consequence of squeezing two African American and two Hispanic Voting Rights Act districts into the area. The cost of adding a new Hispanic majority district in Houston is reducing the Hispanic percentage in the existing TX-29. While it is uncertain at best that Hispanic voters actually make up a majority of the electorate in either district, the chances of a Hispanic representative from Houston go up, if only because Gene Green can only occupy one Congressional seat at a time. All incumbent Republicans are made safe – even John Culberson, who is given a district so Republican that it ought to be impossible even for him to lose.

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TX-07

Incumbent: John Culberson (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	74%	5%	8%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	41%	58%
New District	32%	67%
Change	-9%	+9%

TX-7 becomes much more Republican. It is bleached of all the minority voters it possibly can be, who end up in Houston’s various minority districts. After every remotely competitive precinct is removed from the district, what remains is a 32% Obama district extending through Katy way out into Fort Bend County. If John Culberson is not safe in this district, he might as well retire today. Still, if this TX-07 shifts Democratic as quickly as the previous iteration did over the last decade, Culberson could actually face a competitive challenge by the end of the next decade.

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TX-07

Incumbent: John Culberson (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	35%	37%	6%	23%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	77%	22%
New District	68%	31%
Change	-9%	+9%

TX-18 is like a mutant Octapus, stretching all around Houston. The reason it does this is to make the new TX-35 as heavily Hispanic as possible. It maintains an African American plurality, and while TX-18 is less Democratic than before, it will continue to elect Sheila Jackson-Lee. There may well be a neater and more compact way to draw while creating a maximally Hispanic TX-35, but if there is a better way, I could not figure out what it was.

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TX-35

Incumbent: Gene Green? (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	22%	12%	5%	60%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	…	…
New District	60%	40%
Change	…	…

TX-35 is a new Hispanic district in Houston. Will it actually elect a Hispanic representative? I am not at all sure it will. Will Gene Green run in it, or in TX-29? Probably depends on where exactly he lives.

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TX-29

Incumbent: Gene Green? (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	25%	13%	4%	58%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	62%	38%
New District	64%	36%
Change	+2%	-2%

TX-29 is a new Hispanic district in Houston. Will it actually elect a Hispanic representative? I am not at all sure it will. Will Gene Green run in it, or in TX-35? Probably depends on where exactly he lives.

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TX-09

Incumbent: Al Green (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	23%	42%	11%	23%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	77%	23%
New District	75%	24%
Change	-2%	+1%

TX-09 extends a bit further into Fort Bend County, picking up some of the Democratic precincts that have been bleeding into TX-22 and giving Republicans heartburn. It also loses the more heavily Hispanic areas of Southwest Houston to TX-35. The result is a heavily Democratic district with a substantial African American plurality – bigger now than in TX-18.

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TX-22

Incumbent: Pete Olson (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	68%	7%	11%	15%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	41%	58%
New District	36%	63%
Change	-5%	+5%

Fort Bend county is changing demographically and politically more quickly than just about any other place in Texas. It is that change which has been rapidly shifting TX-22. To rectify this problem (problem for the GOP, that is) TX-09 and TX-15 combine to take in many more of Fort Bend’s Democratic precincts. It is possible that even after these major changes designed to make TX-22 much more Republican, it could well be quite competitive by 2020. The rest of the district remains largely the same, though silliness – such as including heavily minority areas in the district just because Tom DeLay thought it would be fun to have an airport (Hobby) in his district – is eliminated.

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TX-14

Incumbent: Ron Paul (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	62%	14%	3%	21%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	33%	66%
New District	40%	60%
Change	+7%	-6%

Though it still extends south along the Gulf of Mexico all the way to Port Aransas, TX-14 is sucked largely into greater Houston. The rural areas around Victoria are gone. The district is still strongly Republican, but not as overwhelmingly so as before. There is also some careful precinct trading between TX-14 and TX-22. If either Ron Paul or Pete Olson has to be in some sort of hypothetical danger, Republicans would rather it be Paul, and I can easily foresee Democrats obliging. Ron Paul should be fairly safe, but if Brazoria county starts going the way of Fort Bend, Paul could find himself in some minor trouble.

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South Texas and El Paso

A common reaction upon seeing South Texas’ Congressional districts is wondering why they are all long, thin strips running from the Mexican border hundreds of miles north. Why, one wonders, didn’t they just draw a compact district or two along the border? The reason is that doing so overly packs Hispanic voters in a handful of districts. In fact, this was tried in 1980, and found to be illegal. So the long spaghetti strand districts are a fact of life for South Texas Congressional Districts. In any event, in this compromise map, South Texas districts remain largely similar to the previous versions. However, there has been a lot of population growth, and there is room for 1 (or even 2 in a Democratic Gerrymander) additional Hispanic majority seat which will send a Hispanic Democratic representative to Washington.

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TX-27

Incumbent: Solomon Ortiz (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	25%	2%	2%	71%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	53%	46%
New District	55%	44%
Change	+2%	-2%

TX-27 remains almost entirely the same as the old district. The only change is that it retreats from San Patricio County, and picks up a very small part of Harlingen in exchange. Solomon Ortiz should be quite safe here.

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TX-15

Incumbent: Ruben Hinojosa (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	25%	4%	1%	70%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	60%	40%
New District	54%	45%
Change	-6%	+5%

TX-15 is still based firmly in Weslaco-Harlingen in South Texas. But it now extends northwards all the way to the outskirts of Houston, where it skirts into Fort Bend county to pick up Hispanics in Rosenberg. For the record, that’s a 7 hour drive.

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TX-33

Incumbent: None

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	21%	2%	1%	76%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	…	…
New District	55%	45%
Change	…	…

TX-33 is our new Hispanic border district. Like TX-15, it is based firmly in South Texas, and it is essentially a certainty that it will elect a Hispanic Democrat from McAllen.

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TX-28

Incumbent: Henry Cuellar (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	20%	1%	1%	77%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	56%	44%
New District	57%	43%
Change	+1%	-1%

TX-28 becomes much larger geographically, as it expands along the border, running through Eagle Pass and Del Rio, all the way to the outskirts of El Paso. This is actually very likely to make Henry Cuellar very happy, because this ensures that Laredo is the predominant population center in the district. And the only real threat to Cuellar’s re-election prospects is the risk of a geographically based Democratic primary challenge from a Hispanic Democrat in another population center. There is quite simply nowhere else in this district with a population base to support a primary challenge against a Laredo Democrat like Cuellar. The district also becomes more Democratic, mainly because it no longer contains Guadalupe County or any of San Antonio’s eastern suburbs.

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TX-16

Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	18%	3%	2%	77%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	66%	34%
New District	65%	34%
Change	-1%	0%

Finally we arrive out in the West Texas town of El Paso, home to TX-16. TX-16 shrinks very slightly due to population growth, but otherwise remains exactly the same.

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The End

So, there’s my try at a compromise map for Texas congressional districts, assuming 36 seats. This is by no means the most likely scenario for redistricting Texas. Even if Democrats were able to gain partial control over the process, both sides would have incentives to throw the re-mapping to the courts. But it’s possible, and that’s what it might look like. Overall, it has 14 Democratic seats, 2 Swing seats, and 20 Republican seats. If Chet Edwards holds on and Democrats can win the swing seats, Texas could have up to a 17D-19R delegation. A GOP gerrymander would obviously be less favorable, and a Democratic gerrymander (of which there is a 0% chance, since it would require taking back the State Senate) could hypothetically deliver a Democratic majority.