Month: March 2010

More fresh beats from the C&C Polling Factory Scott Rasmussen.

CO-Gov (3/4, likely voters, 2/4 in parens):

John Hickenlooper (D): 42 (49)

Scott McInnis (R): 48 (45)

Other: 3 (1)

Undecided: 6 (6)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Gov (3/8, likely voters, no trend lines):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 37

Bill Brady (R): 47

Other: 6

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Gov (3/4, likely voters, 2/4-5 in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 38 (41)

Jon Kasich (R): 49 (47)

Other: 6 (5)

Undecided: 7 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Sen (3/4, likely voters, 2/4-5 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 39 (39)

Rob Portman (R): 44 (43)

Other: 5 (5)

Undecided: 12 (13)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 37 (38)

Rob Portman (R): 43 (42)

Other: 6 (5)

Undecided: 15 (15)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

SC-Gov (D) (3/3, likely voters, no trend lines):

Vincent Sheheen (D): 16

Jim Rex (D): 16

Robert Ford (D): 12

Dwight Drake (D): 5

Other: 15

Undecided: 37

(MoE: ±5%)

SC-Gov (R) (3/3, likely voters, no trend lines):

Gresham Barrett (R): 14

Andre Bauer (R): 17

Nikki Haley (R): 12

Henry McMaster (R): 21

Other: 9

Undecided: 29

(MoE: ±3%)

I, for one, am glad that Manan Trivedi has rejected Doug Pike’s self-serving proposal for the candidates to sign some sort of “positive campaign” pledge. There are many reasons why I think such an agreement would have been ridiculous, but this one takes the cake:

Former Philadelphia Inquirer editorialist Doug Pike on Monday suggested he and Trivedi sign an agreement that, among other things, would require the candidates call each other personally to apologize if they or their campaigns made any personal attacks. (Emphasis added.)

That just proves Pike’s proposal wasn’t worth the electrons it was printed on. Remember this?

Andrew Eldredge-Martin is the campaign manager for Doug Pike, a Democrat running in Pennsylvania’s Sixth Congressional District. Drew, who has posted here as DrewEM, used sockpuppet accounts to post disparaging remarks about another Democrat running in the PA-06 primary. As it turns out, Drew also used a sockpuppet account at Daily Kos (where I am also an administrator) over the years to comment on two other races he managed, Bob Lord’s campaign against John Shadegg in AZ-03 in 2008, and Chris Carney’s campaign against Don Sherwood in PA-10 in 2006.

Needless to say, this kind of behavior is completely unacceptable. If campaign officials have something to say about the very race they’re working on, then it is mandatory that they speak out in their own voice. Pretending to be a disinterested observer, especially for the purposes of spreading negative information about opponents, is a complete violation of our trust. For the most senior official, a campaign manager, to do so is especially unacceptable.

I offered Drew the chance to apologize, and told him I would include any apology in this post. Not only did I never hear back, but it appears Drew used the opportunity to edit the bio and signature line of his sockpuppet account at Daily Kos, in a belated attempt at transparency. This information was not present in the sockpuppet account when we first discovered Drew’s malfeasance.

Because it is our policy to ban those who create sockpuppet accounts, we have done so here. But this should also be a lesson to anyone – and to any campaign – contemplating something similar. We will remain eternally vigilant in policing this site. We will not tolerate this kind of behavior. And we will do everything in our power to ensure that the trust which animates this site remains unbroken.

Almost half a year later and Drew still has not apologized for this abuse of trust. Doug Pike is well aware of exactly what his top staffer did, and he has neither disavowed Drew’s actions nor apologized himself. That speaks volumes about the kind of campaign Pike actually wants to run, rendering bogus any pledges he might make to behave otherwise. Manan Trivedi knows all this, and he was wise to reject this entreaty.

I’m back.  Since Dave stole my idea to color-code by presidential vote, I’ve decided to see what would happen to Texas if there were no VRA and no partisan redistricting, therefore keeping counties and cities intact.  Here we go.

1st: No Incumbent Representative-R (R District)DARK BLUE

This district is a rural, conservative, Northeastern district, with some large towns in Longview, Texarkana, Greenville, and Paris.  Voting 69% for McCain and 76% White, this is an easy Republican incumbent hold.  Perhaps popular St Sen. Bob Deuell would run?

2nd: Louie Gohmert-R (R District)GREEN

Gohmert should be very happy here.  70% McCain, 72% White, containing Tyler, Palestine, and Nacogdoches.

3rd: Kevin Brady-R (R District)PURPLE

Brady should be pleased as well.  73% McCain and 79% White makes a Democratic representative all but impossible.  This district is Houston Suburbs.

4th: No Incumbent Representative (R District)RED

While not immune to a very very strong Democrat, this 59% McCain district containing large Black areas (21%) in Beaumont is still 64% White Texans in the Houston Area.  I have absolutely no clue who would represent this district.  Ideas?

5th: Ted Poe-R (R District)YELLOW

More fun with Houston suburbs.  Poe’s safe in a 55% McCain district, although not to the extent that he need never worry about re-election in a Democratic year.  This district is only 51% White, with 32% Hispanic.

6th: No Incumbent Representative (R District)GREENISH-BLUE

Due to gerrymandering and population growths, there are many open districts on this map, ten in total, I believe. Here’s another, at 61% McCain and 62% White.  I’d give it to State Sen. Dan Patrick

7th: John Culberson-R (R District)GRAY

West Houston and Suburbs make Culberson relatively safe.  54% McCain and 44% White, however, do not make him immune to a strong challenge.  This district is over 10% in four different races.

8th: Sheila Jackson-Lee-D (D District)PERIWINKLE

Our first Democratic district.  Central and East Houston are 65% Obama supporters and only 29% White, with a plurality Hispanic.  Barring a racial-primary, she’s safe.

9th: Al Green-D (D District)LIGHT BLUE

South Houston’s 9th is 71% Democratic and only 24% White, with 34% Hispanic and 34% Black,but a Black plurality.  Green’s safe.

10th: Gene Green-D (R District)PINK

I have a feeling Gene Green is gone, giving Republicans a 2010 pickup.  A suburban, 59% McCain district is not really what he wants, particularly a majority white one.  R + 1 seat (not PVI, just my tracker for who benefits from redistricting).

11th: Pete Olson-R (R District)LIGHT GREEN

This one could end up being Democratic by the end of the decade, but Pete Olson, who will force Ron Paul into retirement, should be safe for a bit, at 52% McCain in another suburban district.  Also 10% for four different races, with 52% White.

12th: No Incumbent Representative (R District)BLUE

Another open seat, this one based around Texas A&M.  66% McCain and 66% White gives this to a Republican, possibly St. Sen. Steve Ogden.

13th: Chet Edwards-D (R District)PEACH

Just because a district is 61% McCain does not mean Chet Edwards can’t survive, particularly since it contains his Waco base.  However, once he retires, it’s gone, and so we are at (R+2) for a 64% White district.

14th: Joe Barton-R (R District)PUKE

Now entering the Metroplex, Barton’s new district is 54% McCain and 68% White, containing Mesquite and other Eastern and Southern Suburbs.

15th: Eddie Bernice Johnson-D (D District)ORANGE

This is very diverse South Dallas, 39% Hispanic, 38% Black, and 21% White.  At 78% Obama, any Democrat is safe.

16th: Jeb Hensarling-R or Pete Sessions-R (S District)BRIGHT GREEN

North Dallas is less diverse, at 50% White and 49% McCain (so many districts have the same or similar percentage White and McCain), and so this district leans Republican while remaining a swing district.  This means the total is now (+ 1.5 R), and we get to have a contested primary too.

17th: Sam Johnson-R (R District)PURPLE

More DFW Suburbs, in Garland and Plano, and at 66% White, 57% McCain, Johnson’s more than fine here.

18th: No Incumbent Representative (R District)YELLOW

64% McCain, 80% White.  Need I say more?

19th: Kenny Marchant-R (R District)LIGHT GREEN

Marchant just got a lot safer in this Denton Co. district, at 62% McCain and 75% White.

20th: Michael Burgess-R (R District)PINK

The reason the Dallas area is so conservative.  A 62% McCain, 70% White suburban district, containing Irving and Euless.

21st: No Incumbent Representative (R District)MAROON

I think we’ve seen this one before.  57% McCain, Arlington and exurbs, 67% White equals another Republican, maybe St. Sen. Chris Harris.

22nd: Kay Granger-R (Swing District)BROWN

Granger may have slight issues here, at 53% Obama in a Fort Worth district.  I’d say she loses in a Democratic year to a strong challenger (+1 R).

23rd: No Incumbent Representative (R District)LIGHT BLUE

74% McCain,80% White gives this to any Wichita Falls-based Republican, or DFW exurbs. Granger might rather run here, but otherwise, St. Sen. Craig Estes may do so.

24th: No Incumbent Representative (R District)DARK PURPLE

A Victoria and Gulf Coast district, Ron Paul may run here instead, as it has much of his territory.  63% McCain and 57% White, with 33% Hispanic for Paul or another Republican.

25th: Lloyd Doggett-D (D District)ROSE

Austin can no longer be split into 50 districts under this plan, and so it is merely split into two. Doggett gets the liberal eastern portions, where i would assume UT lies, for 46% White and 73% Obama, with 35% Hispanic.

26th: John Carter-R (S District)GRAY

Score half a point for the Dems (+ .5 R)

West Austin, Round Rock, and Georgetown equal a 49-49 split, while still 77% White.  Carter is most likely safe, but open seats won’t be.

27th: Lamar Smith (R District)WEIRD GREEN

These San Antonio suburbs and surrounding rural areas are conservative,67% McCain and 73% White, and so I’m giving this district to the GOP.

28th: Ciro Rodriguez-D (S District)PINK

A half point for the GOP (+ 1 R).  Rodriguez’s 48% Dem, NW San Antonio district, although plurality Hispanic, is Republican, and Republican Hispanic representative outside of Florida is again a possiblity here.

29th: Charlie Gonzalez-D (D District)LIGHT PUKE

Gonzalez and successors are fine here in East San Antonio, at 53% Obama, they aren’t immune, however. Plurality Hispanic as well.

30th: Solomon Ortiz-D (S District)SALMON

Ortiz is probably fine, successors may not be (+ 1.5 R).  Containing some of San Antonio, all of Corpus Christi (who names a town after a dead body), and rural areas in between, this district is 52% Democrat and 64% Hispanic.  

31st: Ruben Hinojosa-D (D District)BEIGE

Kingsville, Brownsville, and Harlingen = 65% Obama, 84% Hispanic.  Maybe the most Hispanic district in the nation?  Hinojosa is fine.

32nd: No Incumbent Representative (D District)ORANGE

now down to R + 1 again.  McAllen and border/rural S. Texas-based district is perfect for a Hispanic Democrat at 86% Hispanic (I spoke too soon) and 67% Obama.  I’d go with St. Sen. Juan Hinjosa (is there a relation here?)

33rd: Henry Cuellar-D (R District)BLUE

Yeah, I know this is horrible for the Dems (R + 2), containing both Hispanic Laredo, Del Rio, and Eagle Pass and the White Plains, but it turned out that way.  44% Obama and 61% Hispanic means another Hispanic Republican, possibly.

34th: Mac Thornberry-R (R District)GREEN

Amarillo, Plains, 77% McCain, 66% White.  Enough said.

35th: Randy Neugebauer-R (R District)PURPLE

Lubbock, Midland, Odessa, 68% McCain, 53% White.  Also enough said.

36th: Silvestre Reyes-D (D District)MAC N CHEESE (Thanks, Crayola)

El Paso gets the last district in Texas, and it’s safe, at 65% Obama and 77% Hispanic.

Oh, and by the way, Mike McCaul is gone, as is Ralph Hall, as is Mike Conoway.  They can retire.

So we go from (2009): 8D, 3S, 1 Chet Edwards, and 20 R to (2012): 8D, 5S, 1 Chet Edwards, and 21 R.

The End.

• AR-Sen: Like I always say, flip-flopping at every opportunity is the best way to win elections. Then:

Lincoln: I Will Fight Reconciliation as Tool to Achieve Health Insurance Reform

Now:

Asked twice whether she was wavering on her previous statements to vote against a reconciliation bill, Lincoln said: “I’ll wait to see what’s in it.”

Considering she already voted for healthcare reform in the first place, this actually is probably the better move for her, believe it or not. (D)

• CO-Sen, CO-Gov: More evidence that the teabaggers and assorted other movement conservative aren’t takin’ kindly to outsiders coming in and imposing Jane Norton on them. Norton lost a GOP straw poll to right-wing Weld County DA Ken Buck after a Denver candidate forum sponsored by the Tea Partiers and 9-12ers. Interestingly, no-name Dan Maes also triumphed over ex-Rep. Scott McInnis on the gubernatorial side.

• LA-Sen: Rep. Charlie Melancon is going on the offensive, having a lot of ground to make up against David Vitter if polls are any indication. He’s filed an ethics complaint against Vitter for having violated federal law by sending out fundraising appeals on official Senate letterhead.

• NY-Sen-B: Hardcore movement conservative and – get this – former chief economist for Bear Stearns (!!) David Malpass says he’s weighing a run against Kirsten Gillibrand, presumably as a Republican. Jonathan Chait hits all the high points as to how badly out-of-touch Malpass is, and Paul Krugman zings him for an especially good bit of moranocity. If I were Gillibrand, I think I’d love to go up against a mouthbreather like this. (D)

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter got a boost from labor, with an endorsement from the United Auto Workers. Also, speaking of Pennsylvania, check out my latest installment at Salon.com, where I used the disparate polling in PA-Sen as a means of introducing the non-SSP-reading masses to the idea of polling likely voters vs. registered voters.

• WA-Sen: It looks like the NRSC hasn’t given up on trying to lure Dino Rossi into the Senate race, as Rossi has confirmed having had a conversation with John Cornyn about it. Rossi continues to maintain a “never say never” attitude about it in the face of questions. The NRSC may also have a Plan B if Rossi says no, that’s an upgrade from their current top candidate, state Sen. Don Benton. They’re also interested in former news anchor Susan Hutchison. Despite presenting a somewhat moderate profile and the advantage of running without an “R” next to her name in the nonpartisan race, she still managed to rack up only 41% while losing November’s King County Executive race. (Still, that makes her only a one-time loser, compared with Rossi’s two strikes.) Hutchison says that she’s undecided, and she’ll wait for Rossi’s decision to make her own.

• IA-Gov: One other candidate who’s not faring so well in the straw poll venue, despite an overwhelming consensus from the political establishment, is ex-Gov. Terry Branstad. He just lost a quick succession of three different county-level straw polls to social conservative Bob Vander Plaats, and these aren’t dinky rural counties either. Vander Plaats cleaned up in Woodbury County (his home turf of Sioux City), while earning narrow victories in Story County (Davenport Ames) and Dallas County (Des Moines suburbs).

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo may not be a declared candidate for Governor just yet, but he’s certainly fundraising like one. His camp is planning to hold a high-priced fundraiser in DC on March 22nd with some high-powered Democratic money players in attendance. (JL) Some of David Paterson’s nosediving approvals may have rubbed off a bit on Cuomo, if Marist‘s new snap poll (pdf) is any indication: Cuomo’s approval is down to a relatively human 54/39. Paterson is at an appalling 19/79, but 68% say he might as well still serve out his term with 28% saying resign. Still trying to find an upgrade from the lackluster campaign of Rick Lazio to go up against Cuomo, the GOP is meeting with conservaDem Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy (who’s been mulling a run in the Democratic primary) to try and get him to switch over to the GOP line to run for Governor.

• DE-AL: Republicans may have found an upgrade in the Delaware at-large seat, which has pretty much already slipped out of their grasp but where they can at least force former Democratic Lt. Gov. John Carney to work for it. They’re courting philanthropist Michele Rollins, the widow of former Republican Lt. Gov. John Rollins (and a former Miss USA) who has access to her former husband’s personal fortune.

• LA-02: Rep. Joe Cao seems to have read yesterday’s big expose of BaseConnect (the former BMW Direct) at TPM, and it seems to have been the first time he’d learned that they’re up to no good. He just severed all ties with the group, who’ve been doing his fundraising for the last year (and skimming off almost all his proceeds, which explains his terrible burn rate). Does this mean that no one from the NRCC was giving him any guidance on how to raise funds? It doesn’t seem like the kind of scam an incumbent would ordinarily fall for.

• NY-23: Doug Hoffman’s made it official – he’s going to try to win the Republican, Conservative, and Independence Party nominations, “and unite them, as one team, to defeat the agenda of Nancy Pelosi and Bill Owens.” Sounds like someone has seen the Lord of the Rings movies a few times too many. This also seems a wee bit delusional, since of course most of the Independence Party quickly embraced Owens (who seems like a good fit for them) when Dede Scozzafava abandoned the race at the last moment. (D)

• NY-29: Strike two names from the list of potential Democratic candidates for the special election to replace crumb-bum Rep. Eric Massa. Assemblywoman Barbara Lifton has announced that she won’t run for the seat, as has Monroe County DA Mike Green. (JL) On the GOP side, state Sen. Cathy Young has also just declined.

• PA-12: Barbara Hafer continues to attack the manner in which former Murtha aide Mark Critz was selected as the Dem nominee for the May special election – and by extention the people behind the process. Several Dems have gone on record expressing their distaste for Hafer’s attacks, and state party chair T. J. Rooney thinks they contributed to her being passed over. (D)

• TN-03: Democrats seem to have found a willing candidate, finally, to fill the gap in the open seat in the R+13 3rd (which looked like a promising race while former Insurance Comm. Paula Flowers was in it). Brenda Short decided to take the plunge; she used to be a Hill aide long ago for former Rep. Marilyn Lloyd (whose 1994 retirement turned the seat over to Rep. Zach Wamp, who’s finally vacating the seat to run for Governor).

• OR-Treasurer, OR-04: In something of a surprise, Multnomah County Chair Ted Wheeler today got named as interim state Treasurer, in the wake of the unfortunate death of Ben Westlund. Wheeler will still need to run again in a special election to be held as part of the November 2010 ballot; he’s confirmed he’ll run in that election but will face at least two prominent Dems: retiring state Sen. Rick Metsger (well-known from his time as local sports anchor), who filed yesterday before Wheeler’s appointment, and former Treasurer (and 2006 gubernatorial primary contestant) Jim Hill. Adding to the general sense of chaos is that it’s the last day of filing in Oregon, meaning now people are piling into Wheeler’s vacant seat as well. Finally, it looks like, with Springfield mayor Sid Leiken’s departure, OR-04 Rep. Peter DeFazio will merely face Some Dude: home-schooling activist Art Robinson.

• West Virginia: One other state where the filing deadline has passed is West Virginia. Despite the state’s red-ward trend (and significant challenges to both its Dem Reps., Alan Mollohan and Nick Rahall), one area where the GOP doesn’t look poised to make much of any progress is the state legislature, already thoroughly dominated by Democrats. In fact, if the Republicans won every race in the state Senate where they managed to field a candidate, they still would come up short on controlling the chamber. In the state House, they managed to leave 27 seats uncontested.  

Remember back when Marion Berry’s retirement in the R+8, trending-the-wrong-direction AR-01 was going to hand one more vulnerable southern seat to the Republicans? Turns out… eh, not so much:

Arkansas’ filing deadline passed Monday afternoon and while Republicans made a lot of noise about their chances in the 1st district in the days after Rep. Marion Berry (D) announced his retirement, all the sound and fury may have actually signified nothing….

In the end, the only Republican to join the contest after Berry announced his retirement was Princella Smith, a former congressional aide to freshman Louisiana Republican Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao.

Smith will face off against the equally unknown and untested Rick Crawford, an Army veteran, farm broadcaster and businessman who entered the race in May 2009.

Republicans had sought to get one of several state legislators into the race — state Sens. Davy Carter or Johnny Key. However, both said no, leaving the GOP without a backup plan. Meanwhile, top-tier Democrats piled into the race in this historically-Democratic district, including state Sen. Steve Bryles, former state Sen. Tim Wooldridge, state Rep. David Cook, and Berry’s former CoS, Chad Causey. Like PA-12, here’s a district where the Democratic tradition and the disparity between the two parties’ benches may just save our bacon despite an ominous trend at the presidential level.

Filing information about the rest of the Arkansas races is here. AR-02 is still a very vulnerable seat to Republican takeover, with former US Attorney Tim Griffin armed with lots of money and Beltway connections. Dems still have a top-tier recruit here, though, state House speaker Robbie Wills, so even here we’re in Tossup territory. Mike Ross in AR-04 seems to have emerged with only bottom-rung opposition, so hopefully he can contribute some time and money to shoring up the other races in the state. Democratic State Sen. Shane Broadway also seems poised to hold onto the Lt. Governor seat being vacated by Bill Halter; he faces off against only a pastor and a pizza restaurant owner.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-01

Public Policy Polling (3/5-8, registered voters, no trendlines)

Charlie Crist (R): 28

Marco Rubio (R): 60

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.4%)

David teased this poll earlier in the digest, but as you can see, things are seriously getting bad for Charlie Crist.

This is PPP’s first poll on Florida, but Rubio’s more than doubling up on Crist now; Rasmussen had this race at 49-37 in Late January. Republican primary voters now disapprove of Crist by a margin of 29-56, which worsens to 20-64 among conservatives.

So what’s the road ahead for Charlie Crist? Probably not in the Governor’s race either:

Charlie Crist (R): 35

Bill McCollum (R): 49

Undecided: 16

Crist’s now also losing to conservative AG Bill McCollum by a hefty margin as well.

With 41% of Republicans wanting Crist out of the party as either an Indy (15%) or Democrat (26%) – compared to 43% who want him to stay, good ol’ Charlie should seriously consider a party switch.

CA-Sen: Arianna Packard, granddaughter of Hewlett-Packard co-founder David Packard, is slamming Carly Fiorina for “almost destroying” HP. Packard, who had pushed for Fiorina’s ouster from the company in 2005, is supporting rival Chuck DeVore in the GOP primary. (P.S. Carlyfornia just officially filed to run.)

FL-Sen: Tom Jensen is such a tease:

We are going to have absolutely brutal numbers out on Charlie Crist tomorrow.

Here’s a little preview: among Republican primary voters 19% would like to see him as Governor a year from now, 14% want him in the Senate, and 56% want him out of elected office.

If there is any path to his winning office in Florida again – and there may not be – it’s as something other than a Republican.

NC-Sen: Attorney Ken Lewis scored a pretty good endorsement in his uphill Dem primary against Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham: Rep. Mel Watt (NC-12) has given Lewis his backing. Watt is the second member of Congress to support Lewis; Rep. G. K. Butterfield, another CBC member, had previously endorsed.

ND-Sen: Former SoS candidate and businesswoman Kristin Hedger (D) is passing on a run to replace the retiring Byron Dorgan. Still, Dems do have a candidate in state Sen. Tracy Potter.

NV-Sen: Huzzah! Harry Reid has officially filed for re-election!

AL-05: This is bipartisanship you can believe in, my friends: Dems and conservatives alike, some 400 strong, protested John Boehner and Parker Griffith outside of a closed-door fundraiser the Minority Leader held in Huntsville for the newest, and least-popular, member of his caucus.

LA-02: CQ Politics sat down for an interview with state Rep. Juan LaFonta, who is aiming to take down GOP Rep. Joe Cao. (So is fellow state Rep. Cedric Richmond.)

PA-06: Doug Pike has proposed a “positive campaign agreement” to Manan Trivedi, his rival for the Dem nomination to take on erstwhile Rep. Jim Gerlach this fall. Trivedi hasn’t made a formal decision yet, but his manager said of Pike’s offer: “It certainly sounds like someone who’s afraid of his own record.”

SC-05: After Dem Rep. John Spratt’s anemic fourth quarter filing prompted renewed speculation that the veteran incumbent may be heading for the exits this year, he’s taking some positive steps towards a re-election bid. Spratt’s office says that the congressman “intends to run again” and will hold a fundraiser at DNC headquarters this week. (JL)

Census: Only one Representative voted against a non-binding resolution to promote participation in the Census last week… did you guess Ron Paul? You guessed right! Memo to U.S. Gov’t: Keep your nose out of my gold bullion stash! Be really curious what happens to this fucking weirdo in redistricting. In less wacky Census news, the Census Bureau started sending out advance notification letters to 120 million households today. Research shows that these letters boost response rates.

Polling: Jed Lewison has some great visualizations of exactly how stark Rasmussen’s “house effect” is.

Voting: This is a good bit of news (and shows you why having Dems in charge of Washington still matters, even if they can’t seem to get anything done in Congress): The Obama DoJ blocked one of the biggest voting machine makers, Electronic Systems & Software, from purchasing Premier Election Solutions (an arm of Diebold). Had the deal gone forward, ES&S would have controlled 70% of the voting machine market. Hooray for competition!

First it was a cancer scare. Then it was sexual harassment allegations. Now, Eric Massa’s traded in his captain’s cap for a tinfoil helmet:

Embattled Rep. Eric Massa (D-NY) lashed out in an emotional radio appearance Sunday, accusing Dem leaders of what he suggested was an orchestrated campaign to force his resignation.

“There’s a reason that this has all happened, frankly one that I had not realized,” Massa said on WKPQ radio on Sunday. “Mine is now the deciding vote on the health care bill, and this administration and this House leadership have said, quote unquote, they will stop at nothing to pass this health care bill. And now they’ve gotten rid of me and it’ll pass.”

This is sun-drenched lunacy, of course. Massa originally claimed he voted against the healthcare bill from the left. The only other person to do so was Dennis Kucinich. Every other freshman voted against it from the conservadem point of view, so Massa couldn’t possible be made into an example for them.

But whatever – that’s all nuts. You think Steny Hoyer would trade all this bad press just to break some balls? That’s absurd. Massa wouldn’t quit unless someone really had the goods on him. Even if the D-Trip completely cut him off, he’s a prolific fundraiser and could well have won re-election against Tom Reed. At the very least, he could have served out his term if he wanted to. You don’t bail midstream without a damn good reason. I only wish Hoyer were that all-powerful!

Anyhow, get a load of Massa recollecting his alleged transgression:

“I said goodnight to the bridesmaid,” Massa continued. “I sat down at the table where my whole staff was, all of them by the way bachelors.”

“One of them looked at me and as they would do after, I don’t know, 15 gin and tonics, and goodness only knows how many bottles of champagne, a staff member made an intonation to me that maybe I should be chasing after the bridesmaid and his points were clear and his words were far more colorful than that,” Massa said. “And I grabbed the staff member sitting next to me and said, ‘Well, what I really ought to be doing is fracking you.’ And then [I] tossled the guy’s hair and left, went to my room, because I knew the party was getting to a point where it wasn’t right for me to be there. Now was that inappropriate of me? Absolutely. Am I guilty? Yes.”

Because that’s how I always react when a buddy ribs me for leering at bridesmaid…. Ugh, whatever. Why doesn’t this guy have the good sense to shut up? This dingbat is going on the Glenn Beck show tomorrow, and I’m sure we’ll be hearing more crap like this:

“Eric Massa’s probably not going to go back to Congress, because the only way I would go back there would be as an independent. A pox on both parties.”

I can’t believe I supported this guy through two election cycles, helping to raise six figures for him across a few different ActBlue pages with Daily Kos. What an asshole. Glad he’s gone.

Though Massa’s not the only one expressing these kinds of Broderite sentiments – Hornell Mayor Shawn Hogan (D) says he won’t run, because the “atmosphere in politics today is toxic, fueled by extremism on both sides of the aisle.” Can’t say I’m unhappy he’s declining – doesn’t sound like my type of Democrat at all. Fortunately, CQ mentions several other names, some of which are new (to me, at least):

Democrats continue to emerge in the 29th district, which takes in a big chunk of eastern New York state. Democratic Assemblywomen Barbara Lifton and Susan John and Assemblyman David Koon have all expressed interest in the seat. And local Democrats are also now talking up Monroe County District Attorney Michael Green, a former Republican, as a strong possible contender.

No word yet on when the special might be held. Since David Paterson is a man without a future, he can do whatever he pleases, which could include holding the special at some random date, scheduling it to coincide with the September primary, scheduling it to coincide with the general, or not having one at all. Who knows.