Texas Redistricting: No VRA and No Partisanship

I’m back.  Since Dave stole my idea to color-code by presidential vote, I’ve decided to see what would happen to Texas if there were no VRA and no partisan redistricting, therefore keeping counties and cities intact.  Here we go.

1st: No Incumbent Representative-R (R District)DARK BLUE

This district is a rural, conservative, Northeastern district, with some large towns in Longview, Texarkana, Greenville, and Paris.  Voting 69% for McCain and 76% White, this is an easy Republican incumbent hold.  Perhaps popular St Sen. Bob Deuell would run?

2nd: Louie Gohmert-R (R District)GREEN

Gohmert should be very happy here.  70% McCain, 72% White, containing Tyler, Palestine, and Nacogdoches.

3rd: Kevin Brady-R (R District)PURPLE

Brady should be pleased as well.  73% McCain and 79% White makes a Democratic representative all but impossible.  This district is Houston Suburbs.

4th: No Incumbent Representative (R District)RED

While not immune to a very very strong Democrat, this 59% McCain district containing large Black areas (21%) in Beaumont is still 64% White Texans in the Houston Area.  I have absolutely no clue who would represent this district.  Ideas?

5th: Ted Poe-R (R District)YELLOW

More fun with Houston suburbs.  Poe’s safe in a 55% McCain district, although not to the extent that he need never worry about re-election in a Democratic year.  This district is only 51% White, with 32% Hispanic.

6th: No Incumbent Representative (R District)GREENISH-BLUE

Due to gerrymandering and population growths, there are many open districts on this map, ten in total, I believe. Here’s another, at 61% McCain and 62% White.  I’d give it to State Sen. Dan Patrick

7th: John Culberson-R (R District)GRAY

West Houston and Suburbs make Culberson relatively safe.  54% McCain and 44% White, however, do not make him immune to a strong challenge.  This district is over 10% in four different races.

8th: Sheila Jackson-Lee-D (D District)PERIWINKLE

Our first Democratic district.  Central and East Houston are 65% Obama supporters and only 29% White, with a plurality Hispanic.  Barring a racial-primary, she’s safe.

9th: Al Green-D (D District)LIGHT BLUE

South Houston’s 9th is 71% Democratic and only 24% White, with 34% Hispanic and 34% Black,but a Black plurality.  Green’s safe.

10th: Gene Green-D (R District)PINK

I have a feeling Gene Green is gone, giving Republicans a 2010 pickup.  A suburban, 59% McCain district is not really what he wants, particularly a majority white one.  R + 1 seat (not PVI, just my tracker for who benefits from redistricting).

11th: Pete Olson-R (R District)LIGHT GREEN

This one could end up being Democratic by the end of the decade, but Pete Olson, who will force Ron Paul into retirement, should be safe for a bit, at 52% McCain in another suburban district.  Also 10% for four different races, with 52% White.

12th: No Incumbent Representative (R District)BLUE

Another open seat, this one based around Texas A&M.  66% McCain and 66% White gives this to a Republican, possibly St. Sen. Steve Ogden.

13th: Chet Edwards-D (R District)PEACH

Just because a district is 61% McCain does not mean Chet Edwards can’t survive, particularly since it contains his Waco base.  However, once he retires, it’s gone, and so we are at (R+2) for a 64% White district.

14th: Joe Barton-R (R District)PUKE

Now entering the Metroplex, Barton’s new district is 54% McCain and 68% White, containing Mesquite and other Eastern and Southern Suburbs.

15th: Eddie Bernice Johnson-D (D District)ORANGE

This is very diverse South Dallas, 39% Hispanic, 38% Black, and 21% White.  At 78% Obama, any Democrat is safe.

16th: Jeb Hensarling-R or Pete Sessions-R (S District)BRIGHT GREEN

North Dallas is less diverse, at 50% White and 49% McCain (so many districts have the same or similar percentage White and McCain), and so this district leans Republican while remaining a swing district.  This means the total is now (+ 1.5 R), and we get to have a contested primary too.

17th: Sam Johnson-R (R District)PURPLE

More DFW Suburbs, in Garland and Plano, and at 66% White, 57% McCain, Johnson’s more than fine here.

18th: No Incumbent Representative (R District)YELLOW

64% McCain, 80% White.  Need I say more?

19th: Kenny Marchant-R (R District)LIGHT GREEN

Marchant just got a lot safer in this Denton Co. district, at 62% McCain and 75% White.

20th: Michael Burgess-R (R District)PINK

The reason the Dallas area is so conservative.  A 62% McCain, 70% White suburban district, containing Irving and Euless.

21st: No Incumbent Representative (R District)MAROON

I think we’ve seen this one before.  57% McCain, Arlington and exurbs, 67% White equals another Republican, maybe St. Sen. Chris Harris.

22nd: Kay Granger-R (Swing District)BROWN

Granger may have slight issues here, at 53% Obama in a Fort Worth district.  I’d say she loses in a Democratic year to a strong challenger (+1 R).

23rd: No Incumbent Representative (R District)LIGHT BLUE

74% McCain,80% White gives this to any Wichita Falls-based Republican, or DFW exurbs. Granger might rather run here, but otherwise, St. Sen. Craig Estes may do so.

24th: No Incumbent Representative (R District)DARK PURPLE

A Victoria and Gulf Coast district, Ron Paul may run here instead, as it has much of his territory.  63% McCain and 57% White, with 33% Hispanic for Paul or another Republican.

25th: Lloyd Doggett-D (D District)ROSE

Austin can no longer be split into 50 districts under this plan, and so it is merely split into two. Doggett gets the liberal eastern portions, where i would assume UT lies, for 46% White and 73% Obama, with 35% Hispanic.

26th: John Carter-R (S District)GRAY

Score half a point for the Dems (+ .5 R)

West Austin, Round Rock, and Georgetown equal a 49-49 split, while still 77% White.  Carter is most likely safe, but open seats won’t be.

27th: Lamar Smith (R District)WEIRD GREEN

These San Antonio suburbs and surrounding rural areas are conservative,67% McCain and 73% White, and so I’m giving this district to the GOP.

28th: Ciro Rodriguez-D (S District)PINK

A half point for the GOP (+ 1 R).  Rodriguez’s 48% Dem, NW San Antonio district, although plurality Hispanic, is Republican, and Republican Hispanic representative outside of Florida is again a possiblity here.

29th: Charlie Gonzalez-D (D District)LIGHT PUKE

Gonzalez and successors are fine here in East San Antonio, at 53% Obama, they aren’t immune, however. Plurality Hispanic as well.

30th: Solomon Ortiz-D (S District)SALMON

Ortiz is probably fine, successors may not be (+ 1.5 R).  Containing some of San Antonio, all of Corpus Christi (who names a town after a dead body), and rural areas in between, this district is 52% Democrat and 64% Hispanic.  

31st: Ruben Hinojosa-D (D District)BEIGE

Kingsville, Brownsville, and Harlingen = 65% Obama, 84% Hispanic.  Maybe the most Hispanic district in the nation?  Hinojosa is fine.

32nd: No Incumbent Representative (D District)ORANGE

now down to R + 1 again.  McAllen and border/rural S. Texas-based district is perfect for a Hispanic Democrat at 86% Hispanic (I spoke too soon) and 67% Obama.  I’d go with St. Sen. Juan Hinjosa (is there a relation here?)

33rd: Henry Cuellar-D (R District)BLUE

Yeah, I know this is horrible for the Dems (R + 2), containing both Hispanic Laredo, Del Rio, and Eagle Pass and the White Plains, but it turned out that way.  44% Obama and 61% Hispanic means another Hispanic Republican, possibly.

34th: Mac Thornberry-R (R District)GREEN

Amarillo, Plains, 77% McCain, 66% White.  Enough said.

35th: Randy Neugebauer-R (R District)PURPLE

Lubbock, Midland, Odessa, 68% McCain, 53% White.  Also enough said.

36th: Silvestre Reyes-D (D District)MAC N CHEESE (Thanks, Crayola)

El Paso gets the last district in Texas, and it’s safe, at 65% Obama and 77% Hispanic.

Oh, and by the way, Mike McCaul is gone, as is Ralph Hall, as is Mike Conoway.  They can retire.

So we go from (2009): 8D, 3S, 1 Chet Edwards, and 20 R to (2012): 8D, 5S, 1 Chet Edwards, and 21 R.

The End.