March 2010 – Page 13 – Swing State Project

January Party Committee Fundraising Roundup

Everybody needs money. That’s why they call it money. Here are the January fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (December numbers are here):

Committee	January Receipts	January Spent	Cash-on-Hand	CoH Change	Debt
DCCC	$4,689,595	$3,049,268	$18,321,761	$1,640,328	$1,333,333
NRCC	$4,501,859	$3,043,209	$4,132,927	$1,458,650	$0
DSCC	$5,104,289	$4,791,193	$12,950,254	$450,254	$833,167
NRSC	$5,013,023	$2,689,836	$10,631,311	$2,331,311	$0
DNC	$9,189,882	$7,629,473	$10,204,457	$1,521,120	$4,681,829
RNC	$10,530,291	$9,469,361	$9,482,877	$1,060,929	$0
Total Dem	$18,983,766	$15,469,934	$41,476,471	$3,611,701	$6,848,330
Total GOP	$20,045,173	$15,202,407	$24,247,115	$4,850,890	$0

Like last month, the GOP once again outraises the Dems and narrows the cash-on-hand gap.

Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 9

Like a surly prison cafeteria worker serving up a pot of gruel, Scotty Ras is dishing out another ladle-full of unappetizing polls.

IL-Sen (3/8, likely voters, 2/3 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 44 (40)

Mark Kirk (R): 41 (46)

Other: 5 (4)

Undecided: 10 (10)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MA-Gov (3/8, likely voters, 11/23 in parens):

Deval Patrick (D): 34 (32)

Christy Mihos (R): 19 (26)

Tim Cahill (I): 30 (28)

Undecided: 16 (14)

Deval Patrick (D): 35 (33)

Charlie Baker (R): 32 (28)

Tim Cahill (I): 19 (25)

Undecided: 14 (14)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NH-Sen (3/8, likely voters, 2/10 in parens):

Paul Hodes (D): 37 (39)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 47 (46)

Other: 4 (3)

Not Sure: 12 (13)

Paul Hodes (D): 42 (44)

Ovide Lamontagne (R): 38 (38)

Other: 5 (4)

Not Sure: 15 (13)

Paul Hodes (D): 36 (41)

Bill Binnie (R): 46 (42)

Other: 4 (3)

Not Sure: 14 (13)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WA-Sen (3/9, likely voters, 2/11 in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 46 (46)

Dino Rossi (R): 49 (48)

Some other: 3 (1)

Not sure: 2 (5)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (50)

Don Benton (R): 37 (38)

Some other: 3 (3)

Not sure: 12 (9)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 49 (49)

Clint Didier (R): 30 (34)

Some other: 6 (4)

Not sure: 15 (13)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (48)

Chris Widener (R): 32 (33)

Some other: 5 (5)

Not sure: 16 (14)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Theoretical, improbable majority-minority districts

I thought it would be interesting to use Dave’s Redistricting App to show that it was possible to create minority-majority districts in places that people might not necessarily expect, yet are indeed possible. I know that most of these districts will probably never be created, but it was an interesting chance to see what districts could be created. Technically, the definition of a majority-minority district according to the Supreme Court is any district that is less than 50% white (a coalition district), not necessarily a majority for one specific group. So some of these districts are +50% for one group, such as black or Hispanic, others have a plurality for another group, while others are just less than 50% white. So here are some of the districts I looked at:

California

Racial stats: 51% Asian, 29% white, 12% Hispanic, 4% other, 3% black

This is an Asian majority district in the Bay Area. While several current districts have an Asian plurality with current Census data, none of them have an Asian majority. This district would probably elect an Asian representative, most likely Rep. Mike Honda, who already represents many Asian areas in San Jose. I think this might be the first Asian majority district to ever exist outside of Hawaii.

Colorado

Racial stats: 51% Hispanic, 37% white, 7% black, 3% Asian, 1% Native American, 1% other

It was actually possible to create a district in the Denver area that is majority-Hispanic. I linked Hispanic areas in the cities of Lakewood, Denver, Commerce City, Longmont, Brighton, and Greeley. Most of the voters come from Diana DeGette’s 1st district and Ed Perlmutter’s 7th district, although Jared Polis’s 2nd district and Betty Markey’s 4th district also lose some voters. I assume this district would elect a Democrat, possibly Diana DeGette, or possibly someone else.

Connecticut

Racial stats: 43% white, 27% black, 24% Hispanic, 3% Asian, 3% other

By linking minority areas in the cities of Bridgeport, New Haven, Waterbury, New Britain, and Hartford, it was possible to create a district that is majority-minority in Connecticut. The district has the homes of John Larson and Rosa DeLauro, and takes in all of the major urban centers in the four eastern and central districts, so it would probably help Republicans in some of the other districts. While the district is less than 50% white, it is almost evenly split between the district’s Hispanic and black populations, so it would be interesting to see what would happen in an election here.

Indiana

Racial stats: 45% black, 43% white, 9% Hispanic, 2% other, 1% Asian

By connecting heavily black areas in Indianapolis and Gary, it is possible to create a district that is plurality (yet not majority) black. I assume that Andre Carson would run here and win, although he would probably be challenged in the primary by Pete Visclosky. However, this district is more Indianapolis, so I think Carson would defeat Visclosky. This district would be incredibly Democratic either way, I’m sure Obama broke 75% here, maybe even 80%.

New Jersey

Racial stats: 39% white, 34% black, 21% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 2% other

This district connects minority areas in Atlantic City, Camden, and Trenton, and could probably be made even less white than this version is. Battle Royale between John Adler and Robert Andrews that would allow a minority candidate to slip through the primary? Thanks to andgarden for this idea.

New Mexico

1st district (blue): 53% Hispanic, 37% white, 5% Native American, 2% other, 2% black, 1% Asian

2nd district (green): 51% Hispanic, 42% white, 4% Native American, 1% black, 1% other, 1% Asian

3rd district (purple): 55% white, 22% Hispanic, 17% Native American, 2% other, 2% black, 1% Asian

As it stands now, all three New Mexico districts are majority-minority, although Dave’s Redistricting App shows a Hispanic majority in only one district, the current NM-02, with updated 2008 numbers. So I wanted to see if it was possible to create not just one, but two Hispanic majority districts. I accomplished this task without too much difficulty, although I admit that it looks a bit strange. The 2nd district remains almost unchanged, although it picks up Torrance County and Hispanic-majority San Miguel County and loses the cities of Carlsbad and Hobbs. Meanwhile, the city of Albuquerque is split in half, along with the northern and eastern edges of the state. The Hispanic western half of Albuquerque as well as other Hispanic areas to the north and east of the 2nd district, as well as Santa Fe go into the 1st district. Meanwhile, the mostly white eastern half of Albuquerque is put into the sprawling 3rd district, which goes from Gallup and Farmington in the northwest all the way down to Hobbs in the southeast.

This would set up an interesting chain of events assuming the three Democratic congressmen currently in office (Heinrich, Teague, and Lujan) were still in office. No one would probably want to run in the new 3rd district, which is the white-majority district and the most Republican of the three. Teague would most likely run in the 2nd district, which is similar to his current district, although he would have to move as his home in Hobbs is now in the 3rd district. Meanwhile, Lujan and Heinrich would probably face off in the 3rd district, although I imagine Lujan would be the favorite since he represents much of this district already and there is now a Hispanic majority in the district. Meanwhile, a Republican would likely win the 3rd district seat, although perhaps I am wrong since New Mexico is a pretty Democratic state on the whole and this district still has significant Hispanic (22%) and Native American (17%) populations. This map would never occur with a Democratic legislature/governor, although perhaps the Republicans would attempt this if they controlled the state government, which is highly unlikely for now.

Ohio

Racial stats: 53% black, 42% white, 2% other, 1% Asian, 1% Hispanic

This district actually inspired the rest of the diary after I thought of it over the summer. This new majority-black district links African-American areas in the cities of Cincinnati, Dayton, and Columbus, and manages to look cleaner than even the current NC-12 (Mel Watt’s district). It would almost certainly elect a black Democrat, and at the same time would take pressure off of other Republicans such as Pat Tiberi and Mike Turner. If Steve Chabot was elected in 2010, he would probably have to run against Boehner or Schmidt in the primary as this district would take up much of the current OH-01’s turf in Cincinnati. If Steve Driehaus hung on in 2010, I think he would probably lose the primary to an African-American, although who knows what would happen.

Also, several people have said that they have been unable to keep OH-10 as a majority-black district in Cleveland without going into Akron.

It is indeed possible, here is a map:

Racial stats: 50% black, 41% white, 5% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 1% other

The main way I did this was by taking a lot of the population from Dennis Kucinich’s district, which puts his district 270,000 people in the red, which makes it almost a given his district will be combined with Sutton’s district in my opinion.

Texas

Racial stats: 44% white, 33% black, 19% Hispanic, 1% Asian, 1% other

I know that there are a lot of pockets of black and Hispanic voters in East Texas, so I wanted to see if it would be possible to make a minority-majority district in East Texas without going into Houston or Dallas at all. So I was able to make a meandering district that picks up minority voters in Galveston, Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Huntsville, Lufkin, Longview, Tyler, Texarkana, and Paris. It looks a bit like Cleo Fields’ old district in neighboring Louisiana, although this district emerges at just 33% black. Still, that might be enough to put a black Democrat through the primary and into office, as the entire district is just 44% white overall and many of those white voters are Republicans and wouldn’t vote in the Democratic primary anyway. I made this district before Dave put in the partisan data, so I haven’t calculated the presidential numbers yet, although I imagine that it was probably in the low 50s for McCain, nowhere near as Republican as the current East Texas districts.

So I know that many of these districts are highly theoretical, but I still thought it was an interesting exercise in seeing what is possible and what may even be required by law someday as voting rights law evolves. Let me know what you think of these districts and this subject!

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Analysis of Illinois Congressional Races

Democrats currently hold 12 of Illinois’s 19 congressional districts. In 2010, 8 Democratic seats (IL-01 – Rush; IL-02 – Jackson; IL-03 – Lipinski; IL-04 – Gutierrez; IL-05 – Quigley; IL-07 – Davis, IL-09 – Schakowsky, and IL-12 – Costello) and 5 Republican seats (IL-06 – Roskam; IL-15 – Johnson; IL-16 – Manzullo; IL-18 – Schock; and IL-19 – Shimkus) appear to be safe. Of the 6 potentially competitive races, I predict the Democrats take one seat (IL-10 – OPEN (Kirk)).

DISTRICT 08 – MELISSA BEAN – DEMOCRAT

PVI: R+1

RATING: VERY LIKELY DEMOCRATIC HOLD

The eighth district covers the wealthy Northern Chicago suburbs of Cook, Lake, and McHenry counties.

Democrat Melissa Bean is the sitting Congresswoman. She was a successful sales executive with Fortune 500 companies as clients. She hit the political map in 2002, when she lost to incumbent Phil Crane by only 15% in spite of a lack of party support. She did not have that problem in 2004, when she beat Crane by 4%. She defended the seat by 7% against David McSweeney in 2006, and by 20% against Steve Greenberg in 2008.

Republican Joe Walsh is a businessman and conservative activist. His is a former teacher and social worker. He won a crowded primary by nearly 10%. He is considered the first “Tea Party” candidate to win a contested primary for a major office. It was recently reported that Walsh’s home is being foreclosed.

As of January 13, 2010, Bean had $785,000 on hand, and Walsh had $7,000.

I hesitate to diminish Walsh. He obviously received traction in the primary, and raised over $100,000. However, Bean is pretty flush, and has done a good job of establishing herself in this blueing district. I would be surprised if Bean wins by less than 10%.

DISTRICT 10 – OPEN (MARK KIRK) – REPUBLICAN

PVI: D+6

RATING: TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

The tenth district takes in the wealthy Northern Suburbs of Chicago. It is historically Republican. A Democrat has represented it for only four of the last 100+ years (Abner Mikva 1975-1979).

Democrat Dan Seals is a marketing executive. He is African-American. He ran two strong races against Mark Kirk in 2006 and 2008, losing by 6% both times. Kirk had easily won his 2002 and 2004 contests. Seals defeated State Representative Julie Hamos by less than one percent in the primary.

Republican Bob Dold(!) is a pest control company owner. He served as an investigative counsel for the House Government Reform and Oversight Committee, and worked for former Vice President Dan Quayle. Dold won his primary by 7% over State Representative Beth Coulson.

As of January 13, 2010, Seals had $146,000 on hand, while Dold had $198,000.

Both candidates will do well with fundraising. Seals seems like a much better ideological fit for this rapidly blueing district. I see Seals’s 2006 and 2008 races against Kirk as a sign of his strength in the district, as Kirk had trounced his prior opponents. Others seem to disagree. If the climate is right, Dold could keep this one in GOP hands, but I give Seals the edge.

DISTRICT 11 – DEBBIE HALVORSON – DEMOCRAT

PVI: R+1

RATING: LIKELY DEMOCRATIC HOLD

The eleventh takes in a strip from the Southern Chicago suburbs nearly all the way across the state, and dips into Bloomington. Democrats had represented the district from 1959 to 1995, when Jerry Weller swept in during the 1994 wave and stayed for 15 years before retiring in 2009.

Democrat Debbie Halvorson is the sitting Congresswoman. Her base is in the Southern exurbs of Chicago. She began as a Mary Kay cosmetics saleswoman. Starting in 1997, she served 12 years in the Illinois Senate, including the last four as majority leader. She defeated Marty Ozinga by 24% to win this seat in 2008.

Republican Adam Kinzinger was a member of the McLean County Board from 1998 to 2003. McLean County includes Bloomington, and is in the Southern part of the district. Kinzinger is a former National Guard pilot who served in Afghanistan and Iraq. He was named Wisconsin Red Cross “Hero of the Year” for an incident wherein he wrestled a knife-wielding assailant to the ground who had just cut a woman’s throat in downtown Milwaukee. He easily won his primary.

As of January 13, 2010, Halvorson had $952,000 on hand, while Kinzinger had $196,000.

Kinzinger seems like a compelling candidate, but Halvorson will be extremely difficult to beat, particularly with nearly a million dollars in the bank. Halvorson has a reputation as an energetic campaigner – the anti-Martha Coakley. Her demolition of Marty Ozinga speaks volumes. When Halvorson defeated incumbent Aldo DeAngelis for the State Senate seat she held for 12 years, DeAngelis’s campaign manager quipped: “Aldo knew all the bank presidents, but Debbie knew all the tellers.” I would say Halvorson holds on by low double digits, maybe high single digits.

DISTRICT 13 – JUDY BIGGERT – REPUBLICAN

PVI: R+1

RATING: VERY LIKELY REPUBLICAN HOLD

The thirteenth district covers the Southwestern suburbs of Chicago, extending into DuPage and Will counties. It is the wealthiest district in Illinois. It has been represented by a Republican for over 100 years.

Republican Judy Biggert is the sitting Congresswoman. An attorney by trade, she served in the Illinois House from 1993-1999. She was elected in 1998, and was easily re-elected until 2008, when her current opponent Scott Harper held her to a 10% victory.

Democrat Scott Harper is the founder of a successful media, design, and marketing company.

As of January 13, 2010, Biggert had $638,000 on hand, while Harper had $99,000.

Harper is a serious candidate, but there is no reason to believe that he will improve on his 10% loss in 2008 in what will probably be a Republican year.

DISTRICT 14 – BILL FOSTER – DEMOCRAT

PVI: R+1

RATING: LEAN DEMOCRATIC HOLD

The fourteenth district extends from the Western Chicago suburbs nearly all the way across the state. Prior to 2008, it had been represented by Republicans for nearly 70 years.

Democrat Bill Foster is the sitting Congressman. His base is in the Western Chicago exurbs. He is an award-winning research physicist and co-founder of a successful theater lighting company. He won a 2008 special election for the seat over Jim Oberweis by 6%, and then won the general election over Oberweis by 16%.

Republican Randy Hultgren is a State Senator representing the Western Chicago exurbs. An attorney by trade, he was elected to the State Senate in 2006. He defeated Ethan Hastert, the son of former House Speaker Dennis Hasters, in the primary by 10%.

As of January 13, 2010, Foster had $1 million on hand, while Hultgren had $10,000.

Hultgren should be taken seriously as a candidate. He has a base in the less conservative Eastern part of the district, and his defeat of Hastert was no small feat. However, he spent nearly all of his money on the primary and is far behind in fundraising. I expect Foster to win by high single digits here.

DISTRICT 17 – PHIL HARE – DEMOCRAT

PVI: D+3

RATING: VERY LIKELY DEMOCRATIC HOLD

The seventeenth district is a gerrymandered district concentrated along the Mississippi River in West Central Illinois, but jutting out into Springfield and Decatur. It is heavily white and heavily blue collar. Democrat Lane Evans held the seat from 1983 to 2007. Prior to that, it had been represented by Republicans since 1918, with the exception of a single, one-term Democrat.

Democrat Phil Hare is the sitting Congressman. He is from Rock Island in the Northern part of the district. He was a union leader before becoming an aide to Representative Evans. Evans retired prior to the 2006 election, and Hare defeated Andrea Zinger by 14% to take the seat. He was unopposed in 2008.

Republican Bobby Schilling owns a restaurant in East Moline, in the Northern part of the district. He touts his background as a union Treasurer at Prudential Insurance. He is a movement conservative supported by the Tea Party.

As of January 13, 2010, Hare had $716,000 on hand, while Schilling had $45,000.

In a November 22, 2009 local media poll had Hare’s re-elect at 40% re-elect, 47% against.

This race has a chance to be competitive. This is the type of hardscrabble, blue collar district where Democrats may struggle in 2010. That said, Hare has a 16 to 1 cash on hand advantage, and Schilling appears to be very conservative. I expect Hare to win by about 15%.

SSP Daily Digest: 3/10 (Afternoon Edition)

• DE-Sen: Good news on the cat fud front, as according to the press release: “O’Donnell announcement adds Delaware to growing list of states hosting conservative insurgencies against liberal Republican incumbents.” Activist and occasional Fox News commentator Christine O’Donnell is making official today that she’s running in the Republican Senate primary against Rep. Mike Castle (although she’s been “unofficially” running for months), who, of course, is neither liberal nor incumbent. O’Donnell lost the 2006 Republican Senate primary and opposed Joe Biden in 2008, losing 65-35.

• NV-Sen: Danny Tarkanian is charging Harry Reid with shenanigans, accusing him of putting Tea Party candidate Jon Ashjian up to running in the race. Tarkanian’s proof? “No one in the Tea Party knows who he is. He didn’t know the principles of the Tea Party.” He’s also accusing Reid’s camp of picking Ashjian in particular because, like Tarkanian, he’s Armenian, and that’ll split the Armenian vote.

• OR-Sen (pdf): A few people (perhaps those who’ve never heard of Rasmussen before) seemed caught off guard when Rasmussen found that Ron Wyden wasn’t breaking 50% against law professor Jim Huffman. Wyden just released an internal poll via Grove Insight showing him in better position against Huffman: 53-23 (with 5% for the Libertarian candidate). He also polls almost the same against the state’s top Republicans, who at any rate (with filing day having passed) won’t be running against him: state Sen. Jason Atkinson (53-22) and Rep. Greg Walden (52-24).

• WA-Sen: The Hill has a little more… well, I’d hesitate to say detail, as that implies there’s some substance there… on the prospect of a Dino Rossi run for Senate, with various anonymous GOP sources saying that Rossi’s “thanks but no thanks” attitude has “changed in recent weeks,” and that if there’s a 1-10 scale of being likely to run for office, Rossi’s at a 3.

• AL-Gov: Bradley Byrne, the Republican former state community colleges chancellor, got an endorsement from Jeb Bush, which may help shore up some more conservative votes in a primary that includes right-wing judge Roy Moore. Bush has been active on the endorsements front lately, giving his imprimatur to Wisconsin’s Scott Walker and to John McCain as well.

• CA-Gov: This is kind of a strange media strategy: kicking out reporters for daring to do their jobs and ask questions of you at a scheduled appearance. It all seems to be part of the plan for Meg Whitman, though: silence from the candidate, and let the ads do the talking.

• HI-Gov: Recently-resigned Rep. Neil Abercrombie has a real race on his hands to get out of the Democratic gubernatorial primary: his main rival, Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann, just got the endorsement of the state’s largest union, the ILWU (the Longshoremen). Abercrombie can still boast a new union endorsement of his own from the IBEW.

• MA-Gov: There seems to be a lot of smoke coming out from under the hood of Christy Mihos’s campaign for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, as seen not only in dwindling poll numbers but now the departure of campaign manager Joe Manzoli. Manzoli claims to be owed $40K in back pay but says that wasn’t the reason for his departure, while Mihos bounced a check from himself to his campaign fund in January.

• ME-Gov: Here’s a jolt of life in the sleepy Maine governor’s race, one of the least-noticed and least clear-cut races in the country. Bill Clinton weighed in, offering an endorsement to state Senate president Libby Mitchell in the Democratic primary.

• NY-Gov: One more snap poll on David Paterson’s perilous political predicament today. It seems like there’s been nothing but noise in these polls, with very wide-ranging responses on whether Paterson should resign or stay, but if you follow the trendlines from today’s Quinnipiac poll back to the previous one, it looks like his position is stabilizing. 50% say he should stay, and 39% say he should resign (compared with 46-42 last seek), although is approval is still awful at 21/61.

• CT-04: One more Republican entrant in the crowded field to take on freshman Rep. Jim Himes in the 4th, with the entry of Easton First Selectman Tom Herrmann. First Selectman is analogous to mayor in Connecticut municipalities that are organized as towns, not cities, but in his spare time he’s a managing director at a private equity firm (so presumably he has some money to burn). The GOP field in the 4th is dominated by state Sen. Dan Debicella and former state Sen. Rob Russo.

• GA-07: We won’t have Ralph Reed to kick around – this cycle, at least. As expected, he won’t run in the GOP primary to fill outgoing Rep. John Linder’s seat. (D)

• NC-08: One other Republican campaign manager hit the trail, getting out of the seeming trainwreck that is the campaign of Tim d’Annunzio in the 8th. Apparently the leading candidate there by virtue of his self-funding ability, d’Annunzio made waves last month for wading into the comments section of the local newspaper – and now his former manager, Jack Hawke, seems to have had enough with d’Annunzio’s lack of message discipline, with d’Annunzio storming off the stage during a recent candidate forum and also with his postings to the end-times-focused “Christ’s War” blog.

• VA-11: Here’s a warning flare from a race that’s not really on too many people’s radars: Rep. Gerry Connolly’s first re-election in the 11th. His rematch opponent, home inspection firm owner Keith Fimian, is boasting of an internal poll (from McLaughlin) showing him beating Connolly 40-35. Considering that Connolly already beat Fimian by 12 points in 2008, while Barack Obama was carrying the 11th by 15, that’s pushing the edges of credulity, but certainly indicates this race needs monitoring. (And of course, Fimian may not even survive his primary, where he matches up against Fairfax Co. Supervisor Pat Herrity.)

• IL-Lt. Gov.: In an attempt to clear the smoke out of the back room, IL Dems have opened up their process for selecting a replacement lieutenant governor candidate. (You may recall that primary winner Scott Lee Cohen dropped out last month.) You can apply via email – and over 200 people have so far. (D)

• Filings: There’s a little more on the Arkansas filings fail by the GOP: they left uncontested 8 of the 17 state Senate seats up for grabs, making it mathematically impossible for them to retake the Senate, and also left 44 of the 100 House seats and the Attorney General’s race uncontested. Filing deadlines passed yesterday in Pennsylvania and Oregon, without any major surprises. In Pennsylvania, there weren’t any last-minute entries in the Senate or Governor’s races; the big story may be the LG race, with 12 different candidates, including a last-minute entry by Republican state Rep. Daryl Metcalfe. The Republican field in the 6th seems to have vaporized at the last moment, leaving Rep. Jim Gerlach opposed only by teabagger Patrick Sellers; Manan Trivedi and Doug Pike are the only Dems there.

In Oregon, there was a brief hubbub that Steve Novick might run for Multnomah County Chair, just vacated by newly appointed state Treasurer Ted Wheeler, but alas, it wasn’t to be; he threw his support to County Commissioner Jeff Cogen for the job. Blue Oregon also looks at the state Senate and House landscapes; Republicans fared better here, leaving only 1 Senate race and 1 House race unfilled (Dems left 3 House races empty). Of the 16 Senate seats up this year, Dems are defending 12 of them, but a lot of them are dark-blue; the main one to watch is SD-26, an exurban/rural open seat being vacated by Rick Metsger (running in the Treasurer special election) where Dem state Rep. Brent Barton faces GOP Hood River Co. Commissioner Chuck Thomsen. (Dems control the Senate 18-12.)

• Fundraising: While we at SSP are often rather blunt about Congressional Dems’ need to give to their campaign committees, at least they’re doing a better job of it than their GOP counterparts. Reid Wilson crunches the numbers and finds out that Dem House members have given $15.7 million to the DCCC while GOPers have given the NRCC only $4.7 million. The disparity is greater on the Senate side, where Senate Dems have given the DSCC $2.6 million but the NRSC has gotten only $450K.

• Passages: We’re saddened to report the death of Doris “Granny D” Haddock, the 2004 candidate for Senate in New Hampshire. Haddock was 100; she was 94 when she challenged Judd Gregg in his most recent re-election. She’s probably best known for walking across the country to support campaign finance reform at the age of 89.

• Social media: Like Swing State Project, but does your head start to hurt after you get past 140 characters? Sign up to get SSP wisdom in its most condensed form, via our Twitter feed or on Facebook.

FL-Sen: Nowhere to Run for Charlie Crist?

Public Policy Polling (3/5-8, registered voters, no trend lines):

Kendrick Meek (D): 33

Charlie Crist (R): 46

Undecided: 22

Kendrick Meek (D): 39

Marco Rubio (R): 44

Undecided: 18

Kendrick Meek (D): 25

Marco Rubio (R): 34

Charlie Crist (I): 27

Undecided: 14

Charlie Crist (D): 34

Marco Rubio (R): 43

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±3.4%)

It’s clear that the situation is pretty dire for Charlie Crist. Already facing a primary challenge that has proven so overwhelming that Crist has resorted in recent days to ridiculous allegations of back waxing against his opponent, it’s looking like the path to victory for Crist in a general election as an indie or a Democrat don’t look particularly promising, either.

While he once seemed invincible, Crist has plummeted back down to earth much like his fellow governors around the nation. His approval rating is at a quite bad 35-51, and almost half the electorate — 47%! — say they want him “out of elected office” next year. Ouch.

We’ve seen similar permutations of this race polled before. Back in November, Research 2000 had Crist doing quite a bit better as an independent or as a Democrat, but that same poll also gave him a 59-32 favorable rating. Even if PPP is not quite on the mark with this poll, I’d bet serious money that Crist’s favorables have taken a big hit since November.

CO-Gov: Hickenlooper Leads McInnis by 11 Points

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (3/5-8, likely voters, no trend lines):

John Hickenlooper (D): 50

Scott McInnis (R): 39

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Well, these numbers are a little different from Rasmussen‘s, aren’t they? PPP’s first look at the Colorado governor’s race since the tradeoff from retiring Democratic incumbent Bill Ritter (currently saddled with a 38/50 approval) to Denver mayor John Hickenlooper (51/27 favorable) finds that the upgrade looks poised to pay dividends. Hickenlooper has an 11-point lead on Republican ex-Rep. Scott McInnis, whose favorables are 28/27.

PPP’s sample composition is 39 D/36 R/24 I, which is a little optimistic compared with the actual registration numbers of 34 D/35 R/31 unaffiliated (or 33 D/33 R/34 UAF if including inactive registrations). Still, the same sample broke 49/49 for Obama and McCain, so it’s still not as Dem-favorable a sample as the actual voters who showed up in 2008.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Gov

PA-12: Hafer Drops Out

All that sound and fury for nothing. Babs Hafer pulls the plug on her primary bid:

Hafer’s withdrawal came less than 24 hours after she was still defiantly questioning the process by which her opponent, Mark Critz, had won the party’s nomination for a special election. On Tuesday, she was still telling reporters that she planned to run in the May primary against Critz. She filed nominating petitions to get on the ballot, but said Wednesday she was withdrawing those petitions.

“We had a spirited campaign for who would make the best nominee in the special election, but in the spirit of Jack Murtha I believe now is not the time to continue this race,” Hafer said in a statement. “I look forward to finding other ways to continue to serve the public and change this state and this country for the better.”

This is good news for Critz, who now only faces primary competition from the lesser-known threesome that is Cambria County Controller Ed Cernic Jr., Navy veteran Ryan Bucchianeri and attorney Ron Mackell Jr. While it’s pretty irritating that Hafer was continuing her attacks at fever pitch right up until yesterday, at least this is one less distraction to worry about.

UPDATE: As Adam B. notes in the comments, it looks like Hafer would have very likely been thrown off the ballot after barely filing enough signatures to qualify for the primary ballot. As you know, it’s pretty easy to challenge the validity of signatures, which is why candidates with a competent organization ensure that they file many more signatures than they actually require.

SSP Daily Digest: 3/10 (Morning Edition)

IL-Sen: In DC celebrating Greek Independence Day, Alexi Giannoulias also met with White House political advisors David Axelrod and Patrick Gaspard. No real word on what was discussed.

PA-Sen: Ouch – check out this blistering broadside directed at Joe Sestak from PA Democratic Chair T.J. Rooney. Rooney blasted Sestak in a sternly-worded letter for not paying his campaign workers the minimum wage and encouraged him to make a concerted effort to vote more often on the House floor. (JL)

TX-Sen: Will she resign or won’t she? The Politico catches up with GOP Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, still fresh from her massively underwhelming performance in the Texas gubernatorial primary, and reports that she “has nothing to say, and I won’t for a while” regarding her future plans. Senate Republicans, apparently, are taking her silence as a sign that a resignation is not actually in the cards, despite KBH’s repeated promises in the past year that she would definitely be leaving the Senate regardless of the primary result. (JL)

CO-Gov: Teasing teaser Tom “The Teaser” Jensen teases us with this tease:

Well we’ll have Colorado Governor numbers out [today] and here’s a little preview – John Hickenlooper’s net favorability is 36 points better than Bill Ritter’s net approval. As you can imagine that makes Hickenlooper just a little more competitive in the horse race.

AL-05: It’s the party switch which keeps on backfiring. Unlike a lot of other, uh, Republicans, Parker Griffith accepted a bunch of money from Charlie Rangel, which he was in a hurry to give back. The problem is that Rangel donated in 2008 – and Griffith recently told angry ex-supporters (to whom he had promised refunds) that he couldn’t return their money from the previous cycle since it had already been spent.

GA-07: Ralph Reed says he’ll announce his plans today, but according to Roll Call, GOP bigs think he’s going to pass on a run. Reed’s previous run for office did not go particularly well – he got crushed in the 2006 Republican primary for GA Lt. Gov., losing 56-44.

LA-03: Lawyer Jeff Landry joined the GOP field to replace Rep. Charlie Melancon yesterday, but CQ thinks that there are bigger names still in the offing: House Speaker Hunt Downer and Scott Angelle, “a Democrat who was named by Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal in late 2007 to serve as Louisiana’s secretary of the Department of Natural Resources.” Dems are also holding out hope for a more prominent candidate, such as state Rep. Fred Mills (who might decide after the legislative session ends on June 21) or former Rep. Chris John.

MI-01: Teacher and former Charlevoix County commissioner Connie Saltonstall plans to challenge Bart Stupak in the Democratic primary, specifically citing Stupak’s infamous anti-choice amendment and threats to vote against healthcare reform if he doesn’t get his way. Saltonstall lost a race against incumbent GOP state Rep. Kevin Elsenheimer in 2008, 61-37.

NM-01: NRCC Chair Pete Sessions will campaign in Albuquerque with fellow GOPer Jon Barela, who is hoping to unseat frosh Dem Martin Heinrich.

NY-13: Here’s a nice score for frosh Dem Rep. Mike McMahon. Richmond County Borough President James Molinaro, an elected Republican who came up with the Conservative Party, has endorsed McMahon for another term in the House. Molinaro endorsed McMahon in 2008, but that was against the detested specimen that was Bob Straniere, who seemed to turn off just about every member of the Republican and Conservative Staten Island hierarchy. (JL)

NY-29: David Paterson says that he’s going to call the special election “as soon as possible,” and that he doesn’t think the seat will be left vacant for the rest of the year.

House: Some chair shuffling as 69-year-old Rep. Norm Dicks, the second most-senior member of the House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, takes over the reins in the wake of John Murtha’s passing, as expected. This mondo committee post potentially means tons more campaign donations will head Dicks’ way, giving him a chance to shower that wealth on others.

WATN?: Ex-Rep. Eric Massa is now under investigation “for allegations that he groped multiple male staffers working in his office.” Also yesterday, Glenn Beck apologized at the end of his Massa interview, saying: “America, I’m going to shoot straight to you. I think I’ve wasted your time.”

DCCC Unveils 2010 Red to Blue Slate

I think it’s safe to say that the days of six rounds of Red to Blue waves are well behind us. The DCCC has just launched their first slate of Red to Blue candidates for the cycle. The lucky 13:

District	Candidate	Incumbent	PVI	2008 (R) Margin
CA-03	Ami Bera	Lungren	R+6	6%
CA-45	Steve Pougnet	Bono Mack	R+3	16%
DE-AL	John Carney	OPEN	D+7	23%
FL-12	Lori Edwards	OPEN	R+6	15%
IL-10	Dan Seals	OPEN	D+6	5%
KS-04	Raj Goyle	OPEN	R+14	31%
NE-02	Tom White	Terry	R+6	4%
OH-12	Paula Brooks	Tiberi	D+1	13%
PA-07	Bryan Lentz	OPEN	D+3	-19%
PA-15	John Callahan	Dent	D+2	17%
SC-02	Rob Miller	Wilson	R+9	8%
TN-08	Roy Herron	OPEN	R+6	-100%
WA-08	Suzan DelBene	Reichert	D+3	6%

Of course, the DCCC is cheating a bit here by including a pair of Dem-held open seats (TN-08 and PA-07), but I suppose they didn’t feel the need to create a separate program called “Keeping Blue Blue” or somesuch. This is a bit of a dog’s breakfast, but it’s no secret that offense is not exactly a priority for Team Blue this year. Some will probably question the placement of Lori Edwards, who only managed to raise $35,000 in the 4th quarter. (Even Charlie Justice found a way to raise more than that!) I suppose that’s just a sign of the times.

Still, the most striking thing to me is the realization that, beyond this list, it’s hard to think of too many other potential Red to Blue targets that could constitute a second wave of the program. Beyond the winner of the PA-06, MN-06 and LA-02 primaries, and probably John Hulburd (AZ-03), I’m drawing a bit of a blank.