Dennis Cardoza, Jim Costa, Daniel Lipinski, Stephen Lynch, Michael Michaud, James Oberstar, Steve Dreihaus, Charlie Wilson, Marcy Kaptur, John Boccieri, Zack Space, Tom Perriello, Jason Altmire, Christopher Carney, Paul Kanjorski, Tim Holden, Jerry Costello, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Kathy Dahlkemper
Month: March 2010
FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Crist Still in a Tailspin, McCollum Up by Six
Research 2000 for the Daily Kos (3/15-17, likely voters, 11/16-18/2009 in parens):
Charlie Crist (R): 30 (47)
Marco Rubio (R): 58 (37)
Undecided: 12 (16)
(MoE: ±5%)Kendrick Meek (D): 36 (33)
Charlie Crist (R): 45 (50)
Undecided: 19 (17)Kendrick Meek (D): 40 (38)
Marco Rubio (R): 41 (30)
Undecided: 19 (32)
(MoE: ±4%)
Another poll, another dose of heartbreak for Charlie Crist, who entered this race a year ago with a million bucks in his wallet and a pocketful of dreams. What’s especially notable is that this poll was taken in the immediate aftermath of Crist’s first real counter-attack on Rubio, which centered specifically around Rubio’s use of Florida Republican Party credit cards for personal expenses, including some ridiculous allegations of back waxing. It doesn’t look like Crist’s new aggressive posture has paid his campaign any immediate dividends.
And how about a journey into the hypothetical?
Kendrick Meek (D): 24
Charlie Crist (D): 21
Undecided: 55
(MoE: ±5%)Kendrick Meek (D): 27 (31)
Marco Rubio (R): 32 (27)
Charlie Crist (I): 29 (32)
Undecided: 12 (10)Charlie Crist (D): 38 (45)
Marco Rubio (R): 40 (34)
Undecided: 22 (21)
(MoE: ±4%)
An indie run continues to look like the best bet for Crist, turning a certain defeat into a game of jump ball for all three candidates.
And, finally, the gubernatorial race:
Bill McCollum (R): 47 (45)
Paula Dockery (R): 9 (9)
Undecided: 44 (46)
(MoE: ±5%)Alex Sink (D): 35 (33)
Bill McCollum (R): 41 (35)
Undecided: 24 (32)Alex Sink (D): 37 (35)
Paula Dockery (R): 15 (13)
Undecided: 48 (52)
(MoE: ±4%)
This is a slightly more optimistic take than PPP’s poll last week, which had Sink trailing by 13 points. As we’ve said before, there are certain things that Sink can do right now to improve her campaign, but I hope that she has an effective paid media team on contract.
PA-6: Why I Support Manan Trivedi
It has been quite some time since I’ve approached the netroots community to say this is the candidate that you need to support. I try to be modest and about my capacities and try to only make asks of my friends when I’m sure it’s worth it … and my friend Manan Trivedi is worth it.
He’s running for Congress in Pennsylvania’s 6th Congressional District, a gerrymandered monster of a district stretching from Reading to Lower Merion, cobbled together to create a slightly R-leaning district in Philadelphia’s western suburbs which Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) has held since the district was created in 2002. Dan Wofford tried to best him in 2002, and I’m sure you remember Lois Murphy’s nail-biter challenges in 2004 and 2006. It has always been a tight district, which is why Jim Gerlach had announced he was leaving it to run for Governor last year — but with minimal support there, he had no choice but to run for this office again, with it now being clear to everyone that his heart isn’t in this seat anymore.
This is our year. Manan Trivedi is the candidate.
Manan — and I really should be calling him “Dr. Trivedi,” since he is one, but we’ve become friendly over the past few months — grew up in Berks County, where his Indian immigrant parents worked at the Red Cheek apple juice factory. He attended college and med school at Boston University, then joined the United States Navy, where served as the battalion surgeon for a Marine Corps infantry battalion from 2001-03, commanding a medical team that cared for over 1,200 of our troops and hundreds of Iraqi civilians as part of the first ground forces entering Iraq.
For his service, Lt. Commander Trivedi earned the Combat Action Ribbon, the Navy Commendation Medal, and his unit was awarded the Presidential Unit Citation.
After his service in Iraq, Manan earned a Masters in health policy at UCLA. He drew on his experience with combat medicine to become one of the early researchers to investigate the unique mental health issues affecting our troops returning from Iraq and Afghanistan. Trivedi went on to serve as health policy advisor to the Navy Surgeon General and was an Assistant Professor of Medicine at the Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences. He also served as a health policy advisor to the Obama for America campaign. Manan is now back home in Reading, where he’s a board-certified internal medicine doctor at Reading Hospital.
That’s all background. Let me tell you a story.
A few months ago a mutual friend encouraged Manan and I to meet, and we sat down for breakfast across the street from my office. At this point — and this is not to brag but for context — I do meet with candidates fairly frequently, and they all seem to want to know the answers to two questions: (1) how can I raise money from the Netroots?, and (2) how can I raise money from your law firm?
Manan was different. We spent the whole time in full wonk mode, talking about things Congress should be doing as part of the next wave of health care reform to increase the number of primary care doctors in America and the quality of that care. I hope his genuineness and humility comes across in this early campaign video:
And make no mistake, he believes in the things we do — on health care, education, on energy and issues of war and peace. And he is not shy. Late last week, when 25 of 26 leading Democratic House challengers declined to answer whether they’d vote for the Senate bill, Manan said yes:
Out of the more than two dozen Democratic challengers and open-seat House candidates, only 10 commented for this story. Eight outright declined to comment. Eight more didn’t respond to several days’ worth of requests via phone and e-mail.
The only candidate to say unequivocally that he would support the Senate bill, which could be voted on in the House next week, is a primary-care physician running to face Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.). Dr. Manan Trivedi said it’s important to get the ball rolling on reconciliation. “The answer is yes,” he said flatly. That was about as direct as the answers got…
Among those declining to respond was his primary opponent, Doug Pike. You may have met Doug at Netroots Nation last year, and he’s not like evil or anything … but he’s not the right guy, either, for a variety of reasons.
Basically, Pike is someone who at the age of 59 had decided to use his accumulated wealth and move into the 6th District for Congress, where he’s largely self-financing this campaign. (His father, Otis Pike, was a Congressman from New York.) Before that, his main job was as an editorial writer for the Philadelphia Inquirer, where he wrote some weird things — endorsing St. Rep. Stephen Freind, whom he acknowledged as “a zealous opponent of abortion” but stated that some issues were “more important” at the height of the Gov. Casey era.
The other reason you might have heard of Pike is, ironically, the reason you aren’t hearing from Pike. His campaign manager was banned from DailyKos and here last September for sockpuppetry employed to bash Trivedi at the start of Trivedi’s campaign. The campaign declined numerous opportunities to apologize, to this day.
But I want to get back to the positives, because they’re so strong: with all apologies to my chosen profession in law, it’s doctors we need more of in Congress. And, honestly, we need more South Asians in Congress as well — it’s about time.
Those who meet Trivedi love him. That’s why the Chester and Montgomery County Democrats — the two counties in the party which have endorsed so far — endorsed Manan Trivedi. Several incumbents who had backed Pike when he was the only declared candidate either declared neutral or flipped to Trivedi altogether, including liberal St. Rep. Josh Shapiro’s hopping off the Pike train this morning. And momentum is building. Here’s some of what he said at that Chester County endorsement meeting:
(Another good campaign speech here.) But Dr. Manan Trivedi doesn’t have Doug Pike’s million-dollar bank account. He needs each of us.
Here’s my goal for today. I want to add 100 new contributors to Trivedi for Congress. In addition, I will match the first $500 you contribute, dollar for dollar. I have established a new ActBlue page, Change We Need, to help Manan and other worthy challengers down the line.
Do you remember back when this community was so eager to get involved in Democratic primaries, in order to elect more and better Democrats? Manan Trivedi is both, and it’s time for us to get into this primary. All of us. Can you help with $5, $10, $25 or more?
I have met a lot of candidates over the past year, and I am telling you this right now: Manan Trivedi deserves all the help you can give.
MA-09: Stephen Lynch switches to “No” on HCR. Any primary opponents for this DINO-posing-as-lefty?
Rep. Stephen Lynch, in MA-9, voted for the health care bill in November but announced today that he’s voting against the new compromise bill — supposedly from the LEFT.
That is, he says he won’t back the new bill because it’s weaker than the original House bill, doesn’t do enough to constrain insurance companies and doesn’t allow for a public option. In other words, we’re supposed to believe Lynch is to the left of Kucinich on this issue. This is wildly implausible. Lynch is a DINO, and his opposition to the bill is from the right. Who does he think he is fooling?
My larger question is: Is there any possibility of a labor-backed primary opponent for Lynch — from the actual left? MA-09 (South Boston) is not the bluest of MA districts, but my hunch is that labor is pretty strong there. It might be important for the larger project of keeping wavering “Yes” votes in line on this bill for some plausible primary opponent to at least begin to get talked about for Lynch.
The filing deadline in MA is not until 6/1…
Despite pressure from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats, Representative Stephen F. Lynch of South Boston said today that he will vote against President Obama’s health care overhaul when it comes to the House floor, contending that it doesn’t put enough pressure on insurance companies to reduce costs.
The move is a switch for Lynch, who voted in favor of the House health care bill in November. But he said the current version, which was approved by the Senate, is not as strong as that measure.
— http://blogcabin.boston.com/mt…
Lynch goes on to criticize the raw deal Massachusetts gets financially from the bill because it’s already so far ahead of other states in covering the uninsured, but the main line of his critique is that this bill is weaker than the House bill (not surprising, since he has to justify his vote switch).
This is not the first time a conservative Democrat has characterized skepticism about HCR as being from the left when it is actually from the right. (Isn’t that the trick Massa tried to pull before his spectacular recent flameout?)
CA-Sen: Field Poll Shows Boxer in a Tough Fight
Field Poll (pdf) (3/9-15, likely voters, 1/5-17 in parentheses):
Tom Campbell (R): 28 (30)
Carly Fiorina (R): 22 (25)
Chuck DeVore (R): 9 (6)
Undecided: 41 (39)
(MoE: ±5.5%)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 43 (48)
Tom Campbell (R): 44 (38)
Undecided: 13 (14)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 45 (50)
Carly Fiorina (R): 44 (35)
Undecided: 11 (15)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 45 (51)
Chuck DeVore (R): 41 (34)
Undecided: 14 (15)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Shit just got real.
SSP Daily Digest: 3/18 (Afternoon Edition)
• NV-Sen: It’s starting to look like the investigation into John Ensign may really take off. The DOJ is actually serving subpoenas to at least six different Las Vegas area businesses, as they expand a criminal probe into the tangle of quid pro quos that arose as Ensign tried to find lobbying work for cuckolded friend Doug Hampton.
• CA-Gov: Usually politicians wait to say this kind of thing privately instead of publicly, but maybe Jerry Brown, as is his way, is engaged in some sort of Jedi mind trick. Brown openly encouraged his union allies to start spending now in the governor’s race and to go on the attack against likely GOP opponent Meg Whitman, so that he can stay “the nice guy” in the race.
• MI-Gov: Chris Cillizza has access to a new poll from Inside Michigan Politics/Marketing Resource Group, which looks at the Republican primary in the Michigan Governor’s race. It’s more evidence that businessman Rick Snyder’s splashy spending and catchy “one tough nerd” ad has turned this into a real three-way race. The poll finds AG Mike Cox and Rep. Peter Hoekstra tied at 21, with Snyder right there at 20. Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard trails, at 10.
• NY-Gov: Guess who doesn’t like the idea of running a Democrat for the Republican nomination for Governor (even if NY GOP head Ed Cox seems to think it’s the best idea since sliced bread)? The RNC has threatened not to put money into New York races (and note that says “races,” not just the Gov’s race) if Democratic Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy winds up the GOP’s nominee. Meanwhile, David Paterson‘s case just gets weirder and weirder, as now he’s saying he himself was the anonymous source for the NYT story on his interceding on his aide’s behalf.
• WY-Gov: It’s still not clear that state Sen. Mike Massie is going to run for Governor on the Democratic side, but it is looking like he’s planning to move up. He confirmed he won’t run for his Senate seat again, although he’s interested in Superintendent of Public Education as well as Governor.
• NY-24: Chalk Rep. Mike Arcuri up as a “no” vote on health care reform. This comes despite the threat of losing the Working Families Party line in November, which will probably imperil his chances of re-election more so than any Republican votes he might pick up (which will probably equal zero, regardless of how he might vote on HCR).
• NY-29: Corning mayor Tom Reed has a bright idea on how to pay for the special election caused by Eric Massa’s resignation: make Massa pay for it, out of the money in his campaign fund (which is roughly equal to the actual cost of holding the election). Not that it’s going to happen, but it raises an interesting question: is there a legal mechanism for Massa to write a $644K check to the state of New York out of his account?
• PA-12 (pdf): There’s a second poll of the 12th, from a slightly more established pollster (although one who still requires a grain or two of salt): Republican pollster Susquehanna. Their numbers are pretty close to the weird robopoll from yesterday, finding Democrat Mark Critz leading Republican Tim Burns 36-31. Bad news for Dems: by a 49/44 margin, voters want to turn away from a candidate who, in the John Murtha tradition, supports earmarks for the district. Good news for the Dems: of the undecideds, 67% are Democrats, meaning that Critz has more room to grow.
• VA-11: Rich guy Keith Fimian is up with his first radio ad in the 11th, attacking Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly for saying, in reference to the stimulus, “I want to be there with all four paws and snout in the trough.” Um, yeah… except Connolly was saying that long after the stimulus passage, making fun of Eric Cantor’s hypocrisy on the issue. Too bad snark tags don’t translate to radio very well.
• NY-Something: Former Republican Lt. Governor, and then unsuccessful former health care industry spokesbot, Betsy McCaughey, apparently is looking for a way into the Republican field in one of the various statewide races in New York; she’s been polling both races. (There’s one small wrinkle: she’s still registered as a Democrat, and voted in the 2009 Democratic primary. She became a Dem after George Pataki dropped her from his 1998 ticket, and tried to run against Pataki as a Dem instead.)
• Votes: After all the sturm and drang surrounding the cloture vote, the final vote on the Senate jobs bill was pretty uninteresting, with 11 different GOPers crossing the aisle to vote for it: Alexander, Bond, Brown, Burr, Cochran, Collins, Inhofe, LeMieux, Murkowski, Snowe, and Voinovich.
• WATN?: A must-read editorial in today’s WaPo comes from ex-Rep. Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky, whose despite her two years in the House looms large in history as the decisive vote on the 1993 Clinton budget, which is usually assigned as the reason for her loss in 1994. She pushes back against the mind-numbing Beltway conventional wisdom that your electoral survival depends on bucking the party line on the tough votes, and seems to be weighing on the minds of members like the aforementioned Mike Arcuri. A wave is a wave, and it takes out those in unsafe districts who vote for or vote against; the key is to not let the wave become a wave in the first place:
Votes like this are never a zero-sum game…. While it is easy to say my balanced-budget vote cost me reelection, that assumes the line of history that followed the bill’s passage. Had I voted against it, the bill wouldn’t have passed, the Republican opposition would have been emboldened, the Clinton presidency would have moved into a tailspin . . . and all of this could have just as easily led to my undoing.
Simply put, you could be Margolies-Mezvinskied whether you vote with or against President Obama. You will be assailed no matter how you vote this week. And this job isn’t supposed to be easy. So cast the vote that you won’t regret in 18 years.
There’s still one strange contention in her piece: that “I was in the country’s most Republican district represented by a Democrat.” Sorry, not even close: that district would’ve been R+4 at the time, based on its 1988 and 1992 results, good for 51st most Republican held by a Democrat. Even though she famously got bounced out in 1994, the 13th was promptly back in Democratic hands in 1998, courtesy of Joe Hoeffel (and now, thanks to trends in the Philly suburbs and thanks to redistricting, it’s a safe Dem district). The most Republican district held by a Dem in 1993? FL-01, then held by Earl Hutto, at R+20. (Hutto retired in 1994, giving way to… wait for it… Joe Scarborough.)
SSP Daily Digest: 3/18 (Morning Edition)
While our polling operation is only entering its 5th year, the principals of our firm have each been involved in political polling for nearly three decades. Since our founding, We Ask America has been conducting private polls for clients ranging from gubernatorial, congressional and state-level candidates, as well as large national trade associations and private businesses. We call an average of four million household a year through the U.S. In addition, we also perform many live interview polls as well.
The decision to enter the public-polling arena was made only after we experienced a great deal of success privately. We fully understand that taking a more public stance will require time and quality work to earn a reputation as a reliable voice in the public polling industry.
NY-Gov: Levy Set to Run
It appears to be on:
A governor’s race that seemed all but settled is about to be upended again, by a popular Democrat from Long Island who is set to announce that he is switching parties. The move is certain to excite Republican leaders pessimistic about their party’s hopes this fall. […]
[Steve] Levy, 50, the Suffolk County executive, said he wanted voters to see him as “Scott Brown II,” referring to the Massachusetts senator who pulled off an upset against a heavily favored Democrat in January.
“There really seems to be a void out there that I can fit perfectly,” Mr. Levy said, describing Albany’s political culture as a “cesspool.”
“We’ve got to clean house, tear that place down and build it back in a cleaner, more efficient manner,” he added.
A spokeswoman for Mr. Levy, Rene Babich, said late Wednesday that Mr. Levy would announce in a news conference in Albany on Friday that he was seeking the Republican nomination for governor.
But will New York Republicans, the same party that turned the name “Scozzafava” into a verb, be willing to accept a guy who will still technically be a Democrat on election day?
Mr. Levy will face considerable hurdles in winning the Republican nomination. Technically, his change in party registration would not take effect until after the November election; so to gain a spot on the Republican primary ballot, he would have to receive more than 50 percent of the vote at the state party convention in June.
Levy will have to go toe-to-toe with ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, which could promise to be a pretty fun primary — if Levy’s bid even gets that far.
PA-07: Lentz Campaign Attempting to Knock Meehan Off Ballot
Last week, former US Attorney Pat Meehan flagged his own nominating petitions for possible forgeries, asking the Delaware County DA (who, incidentally, is a major donor to Meehan’s campaign) to investigate the matter. Meehan’s campaign isolated the possible forgeries as the work of one veteran GOP operative, Paul Summers, who was responsible for 650 of Meehan’s 3,627 submitted signatures. (To qualify for the ballot, House candidates must file 1,000 valid signatures.)
It looks like the Lentz campaign thinks there may be even more meat on that bone:
Republican congressional candidate and former U.S. attorney Patrick Meehan filed nominating petitions riddled with enough errors to disqualify him from the ballot in the Seventh District U.S. House race, according to a challenge filed with Commonwealth Court.
The motion asks the court to rule that most of the 3,623 signatures Meehan submitted are invalid, leaving him with fewer than the 1,000 required to run in the May 18 GOP primary. […]
Technically, the petition challenge was brought by four unknown registered Republican voters in Delaware County, though the Lentz campaign expressed support in a statement released Tuesday night after the document was filed.
The challenge says two longtime leaders of the county GOP, Thomas Judge Sr. and John McNichol, were among those who signed affidavits as circulators of Meehan petitions without witnessing the signatures of voters, as required by law.
A line-by-line examination of the petition sheets found fictitious signatures, people who were not registered to vote or were not enrolled with the Republican Party, illegible signatures, and other defects, the complaint said. All signatures gathered by circulators who acted improperly should be thrown out, it said.
“What’s unusual is when a candidate recognizes impropriety,” said Cliff Levine, a Pittsburgh lawyer specializing in election law who filed the challenge. “Mr. Meehan agrees with us that there was impropriety. Our point of difference is over the scope.”
More from PA2010:
The complaint is nothing if not wide in scope, claiming to have evidence enough to strike 2,284 signatures simply on their individual merits. The signatures in question, according to the complaint, include ones that, among other things, were illegible; incomplete; belonging to voters not registered in the district; belong to voters not registered as Republicans; or forged entirely by someone else. It further alleges that many of the petitions on which signatures were gathered were circulated by people other than those who signed affidavits confirming they had witnessed each signature.
The full complaint is available here (.pdf). This looks like it’ll yield some pretty juicy news in the coming weeks, to say the least. I especially love Meehan’s response:
Meehan also said this his campaign had reviewed Lent’s nominating petitions and found 550 signatures that could be challenged (Lentz’s campaign collected more than 5,000).
“But I chose not to engage in the waste of court resources that your campaign has willingly embraced,” Meehan wrote. “I believe voters deserve better.”
So are we to believe that Meehan is not challenging Lentz’s petitions because he respects “court resources”, or because he knows that, even if his challenges were successful, Lentz would still have over four times the required signatures to qualify for the ballot? I think we all know the answer to that one.
RaceTracker Wiki: PA-07
CA-Gov: Brown Slips, Whitman Takes the Lead in New Field Poll
Field Poll (pdf) (3/9-15, likely voters, 1/5-17 in parens, 9/18-10/6 in brackets):
Meg Whitman (R): 63 (45) [22]
Steve Poizner (R): 14 (17) [9]
Undecided: 23 (38) [49]
(MoE: ±5.5%)Jerry Brown (D): 43 (46) [50]
Meg Whitman (R): 46 (36) [29]
Undecided: 11 (18) [21]Jerry Brown (D): 49 (48) [50]
Steve Poizner (R): 32 (31) [25]
Undecided: 19 (21) [25]
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Whitman’s had the airwaves to herself, utterly pummeling state Insurance Co. Steve Poizner into submission. Unless Poizner can hit back, the chances of seeing a Westley/Angelides-style dogfight for the GOP nomination look pretty grim, indeed.
Fun stat: 8% of voters who “identify a lot” with the Tea Party movement favor Brown over Whitman. (Not that it matters, though, as 20% of Democrats defect to Whitman.) Whatever the case, it certainly appears that Brown is no longer in control of this race.