Month: March 2010

Love of money is the root of all evil. Here are the February fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (January numbers are here):

Outraised across the board, and outraised overall for the third month in a row. At the end of November, Democrats had a $20 million cash advantage. Now that’s down to $16 million.

This was originally going to be a comment on http://www.swingstateproject.c… but it ran long:

The NY GOP seems to be somewhat firmly behind Levy. Additionally, I read something yesterday about Some Dude from Buffalo who wants to run on a Tea Party line. So there could potentially be a 3-way split on the right. Steve Levy by the way, isn’t called “the George Wallace of Long Island” for nothing. He’s a rabid Lou Dobbs style anti-immigration nut who may not be a party-line Republican, but is anything but a Liberal.

And here’s how it gets better:

Ballot order in all elections in NY is determined by that party’s performance in the previous gubernatorial election. Based on the 2006 election, the ballot order is currently:

Row A – Democratic Party (2,740,864 votes for Sptizer/Paterson)

Row B – Republican Party (1,105,681 votes for Faso/Vanderhoef)

Row C – Independence Party (190,661 votes for Spitzer/Paterson)

Row D – Conservative Party (168,654 votes for Faso/Vanderhoef)

Row E – Working Families Party (155,184 votes for Spitzer/Paterson)

Should Levy get Scozzafava’d by Lazio, that would mean that the Conservative Party would move up to row B for the next four years, with the GOP being knocked down to Row C or possibly even lower, which might happen depending on how the yet-to-be-determined (could be anyone, including Cuomo) Independence Party candidate performs on that line.

This kind of split would also obviously help Cuomo immensely, although I doubt he’ll need any help winning in a landslide even against a unified candidate of the right.

It would also be cool to see the WFP move up a row, although I don’t honestly see that happening, and if the Tea Party line is created and gets enough votes, it could take Row E and move the WFP to Row F.  

Even if Suffolk Co. Executive Steve Levy, who until very recently was a Democrat, manages to win the GOP gubernatorial nomination, it looks like he may end up getting severely Scozzafava’d.

The New York Daily News is reporting that the executive committee of the state’s Conservative Party voted this afternoon to endorse the candidacy of ex-Rep. Rick Lazio over Levy by a 13-5 vote. However, this doesn’t mean that Lazio has secured a spot on the ballot on the Conservative line, as the party will have a vote at a statewide convention in June to officially nominate a candidate. Levy’s team is vowing to win that endorsement, but Conservative Chair Mike Long (who, incidentally, is calling Levy’s candidacy “an affront” to Conservatives) may attempt to bump up the convention in order to secure the ballot line for Lazio early:

The Conservative Party’s convention isn’t until June, although Long has suggested he might move the date up to May in hopes of forcing the GOP’s hand.

This gives Levy and Paladino plenty of time to lobby the executive committee members and try to woo them away from Lazio in advance of the weighted vote that will result in the formal nomination of a candidate.

But Long said he believes his members will remain loyal to Lazio, adding:

   “This is the body that issues the Wilson Pakula. That membership is not going to change. This is where we’re going to be. We’re going to be behind Rick Lazio, and he’s riding it all the way to November.”

If successful, Long’s play would force the GOP to either abandon their more electable candidate (Levy) in favor of the underwhelming Lazio, or march willingly into another Scozzafava-esque sawmill. Lazio, for his part, is vowing to stay on the Conservative line through November, which would virtually doom Levy’s chances:

“I commit to running on the Conservative line all the way through to election day,” Lazio continued. “I thank Chairman Long for his principled leadership and his deep commitment to the values we share as conservatives.”

I think I may just O.D. on cat fud tonight.

UPDATE: Diarist Hudi11 makes a great point: If Lazio gets the Conservative nomination and Levy gets the GOP nod, Lazio could conceivably come in second (and Levy 3rd or worse), pushing the Republicans past Column B for the next four years in New York. Now that would be something!

This is the third part of a series of posts analyzing the swing state Virginia. It is the first section of two focusing on Northern Virginia. The fourth part can be found here.



NoVa

A vast and growing suburban metropolis, Northern Virginia has become increasingly important in Virginia politics. There, demographic changes have imperiled Republican dominance of Virginia.

To illustrate the exceptional nature of this movement, compare the two elections below. Here is 2000:

Eight years later, Northern Virginia has transformed:

More below.

In 2000, Governor George W. Bush had won Virginia by a comfortable 8.1% margin, carving out the traditional Republican coalition of rural and suburban Virginia. As this picture indicates, Virginia Democrats in 2000 really don’t have a base of support, except perhaps the heavily black southeast parts of the state. By 2008 Senator Barack Obama won the state by an equally comfortable 6.30% – a 14.3% shift in support.

Before digging into the dynamics of modern NoVa, it is worth exploring its past behavior to gain a sense of context.

A History

Northern Virginia was not always as populous as it is today; well into the twentieth century, it remained a rural (and heavily Democratic) backwater. In the 1940 presidential election, for instance, less than 10,000 people voted in Arlington County.

Growth began in the 1940s, however, driven by an ever-expanding federal government. The inner-ring suburbs in Arlington started expanding first, followed by Fairfax County in the 1950s. Like many other white and wealthy suburbs, Northern Virginia leaned Republican during this era.

Unlike some suburbs, however, Northern Virginia never fell in love with Republicanism. In Fairfax County, Republican presidential candidates only once took more than 65% of the vote (in 1972) – something which would regularly happen in a place like Chesterfield County, a suburb of Richmond.

Change first began in the 1980s, when inner-ring suburbs such as Arlington started voting Democratic. In the 2000 map, one sees Arlington County as the lonely blue bubble to the right of Fairfax County.

By 2000, as the graph above indicates, change was coming to the suburban communities in Fairfax. In 2004 the county voted Democratic by a 7.30% margin, which should have been a warning sign to Republicans. A mere two years later, it powered Democratic candidate Jim Webb to a narrow victory over incumbent Senator George Allen (he won the county by 18.9%). In 2008 Fairfax – well, just look at the map to see what happened in 2008.

In just eight short years, Northern Virginia has turned from a Republican-leaning suburb into a fundamental part of the Democratic base. Virginia has changed from a red state into a purple one, due mainly (but not entirely) to Northern Virginia.

The next post will explore Northern Virginia today – in order to get a sense of how this has happened.

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

UPDATE (David): I know the healthcare reform bill is a hot topic. But as always, I want to remind people to limit any discussion here to the electoral effects of how members vote. We will also post a diary as soon as there is an actual vote. In the meantime, if you are interested in whip counts, I suggest using Twitter or checking out David Dayen’s updates.

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru. You can contribute to terrific Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.}

Recent polling from Public Policy Polling and Research 2000 suggests that Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek is in terrific position to win Florida’s 2010 U.S. Senate race. With Republican Marco Rubio well ahead of primary challenger Charlie Crist in the polls, but far behind on fundraising, Rubio will likely emerge victorious from the primary, but out of campaign funds and politically badly bruised, as well as positioned to the extreme right ideologically. Congressman Meek, on the other hand, is steadily campaigning and fundraising and will be well-positioned for the general election.

As such, Senate Guru has added Congressman Meek’s campaign to its Expand the Map! ActBlue fundraising page, which has raised tens of thousands of dollars for Democratic candidates for Senate in the 2008 and current 2010 cycles.

To kick off the addition of Congressman Meek, we’re looking to start off with just $100 raised to get the ball rolling. Just five $20 contributions would be a great start! Can you chip in $20?

Visit the Expand the Map! ActBlue page to chip in if you can!

• CO-Sen: 50% is a totally arbitrary mark in the Colorado caucus straw poll, and doesn’t mean anything from a legal perspective, but Andrew Romanoff’s total has fallen below the magic mark as ballots keep getting counted. Romanoff’s at 49.9% to Michael Bennet’s 41.9% with 20 precincts left to be counted, which, in the battle of perceptions, takes a tiny bit of shiny luster off his victory.

• IA-Gov: Actually, maybe the departure of Jonathan Narcisse from the Democratic gubernatorial primary isn’t the good news for Chet Culver that it originally seemed. The gadflyish Narcisse has decided to run as an independent instead, and if he a) gets on the ballot and b) gets any votes, it seems likelier they might come from Culver’s column than that of the GOP nominee (although he does talk a lot of shrinking government, so who knows).

• MD-Gov: Prince George’s Co. Exec Wayne Curry has occasionally flirted publicly with the idea of a challenge to Martin O’Malley in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, and he’s popping up with the idea again today. (O’Malley already faces a challenge from the right in the primary from former state Del. George Owings). Meanwhile, Dems are launching some pre-emptive salvos at possible GOP candidate Bob Ehrlich, accusing him of using employees at his law firm to do campaign work for him.

• NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B: Apparently there’s been some behind-the-scenes pressure on ex-Rep. Rick Lazio to get out of the GOP governor’s primary, where he’s aroused little enthusiasm despite having the field to himself for months, and into the Senate race instead — to clear the way for ostensibly prized recruit Steve Levy, the Suffolk Co. Exec who appears set to change parties and run as a Republican. Lazio says no way is he switching, though, assailing Levy as a liberal Democrat who called the stimulus package “manna from heaven.”

• AZ-03: The John McCain/J.D. Hayworth primary fight is turning into one of the main fracture lines in the primary further down the ballot to replace retiring GOP Rep. John Shadegg. Ex-state Sen. Jim Waring and Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker have both endorsed McCain, while former state Rep. Sam Crump backs Hayworth. Former state Sen. Pamela Gorman says she isn’t getting involved.

• GA-07: Looks like GOP state Rep. Clay Cox is sitting in the catbird’s seat, as far as replacing retiring Rep. John Linder. Not only did his main rival, state Sen. Don Balfour, drop out of the race (and out of politics altogether) yesterday, leaving Cox alone in the field, but now state Sen. David Shafer (who many initially expected to run to succeed Linder) gave Cox his endorsement.

• ID-01: This is terribly disappointing… ex-Rep. Bill Sali called a big press conference today, just before Idaho’s filing deadline, to announce something, hopefully another kamikaze run to get his House seat back. (Or why stop there? Why not a primary run against Mike Crapo?) Unfortunately, it was just to endorse state Rep. Raul Labrador in the primary.

• MA-09: Is Stephen Lynch opening himself up to a primary challenge? Despite meeting personally with President Obama, he says that he is “firmly a ‘no’ vote” on healthcare reform. Lynch has always received strong support from labor, but with unions whipping this vote with unusual fervor, perhaps things might change on that front. (D) Here’s one possible explanation for Lynch mugging for the cameras today… Lynch may be thinking about a challenge to Scott Brown in 2012; he sorta-deflected questions on that front.

• NC-08: Tim d’Annunzio, the self-funding Republican who gets treated as the frontrunner in the GOP field to challenge freshman Rep. Larry Kissell, just keeps on pulling hot-headed stunts that threaten his status as a credible candidate. D’Annunzio got into a physical confrontation with Republican state Rep. Justin Burr (no punching, just lots of poking) and then issued a press release attacking the state party chair, Tom Fetzer, for “coordinated personal attacks” in the wake of the incident.

• NY-24: Speaking of strategically-challenged “no” votes, it looks like the Working Families Party isn’t bluffing on its threats to cut loose Rep. Mike Arcuri. They’re actively recruiting a challenger to run against him on their own ballot line, and the SEIU is supportive of the effort.

• Fundraising: Here’s a really interesting chart, which plots the DW/Nominate scores (i.e. ideological position) of Congress members against what sectors of the economy their contributions come from. The results aren’t too surprising: motion pictures, professors, printing and publishing, public schools, and lawyers lean the most left (darned cultural elite!) and oil and gas, auto dealers, construction, energy production, and agriculture lean most right. Health care and real estate seem to be smack in the middle.

Research 2000 for the Daily Kos (3/15-17, likely voters, 8/31-9/2/2009 in parens):

Rand Paul (R): 40 (25)

Trey Grayson (R): 28 (40)

Other: 14 (18)

Undecided: 18 (17)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 47 (37)

Jack Conway (D): 31 (30)

Other: 8 (15)

Undecided: 14 (18)

(MoE: ±5%)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 37 (42)

Rand Paul (R): 46 (37)

Undecided: 17 (21)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 38 (41)

Trey Grayson (R): 43 (45)

Undecided: 19 (14)

Jack Conway (D): 39 (41)

Rand Paul (R): 45 (37)

Undecided: 16 (22)

Jack Conway (D): 36 (40)

Trey Grayson (R): 44 (46)

Undecided: 20 (14)

(MoE: ±4%)

Research 2000 doesn’t have very appealing numbers out of the Kentucky Senate race, where, over the last half a year, Rand Paul seems to have strengthened his position considerably. Very little else has changed — in the Dem primary, Dan Mongiardo leads Jack Conway by about the same a bigger margin, while Mongiardo and Conway both poll about the same as before vis-a-vis Trey Grayson — but Paul has shot into the lead in the GOP primary. And Paul is now overperforming Grayson in relation to the Dems, instead of losing to them, as was the case in September.

Color me a little puzzled; the libertarian-minded Paul just seems to have the wrong profile for Kentucky, an Appalachian-flavored state that’s socially conservative and likes its earmarks. The SurveyUSA poll of a few weeks ago seemed to promise a competitive race in Kentucky, but it was based on a Generic D/R question. The problem seems to be that Paul is by no means a Generic Republican, and Grayson hasn’t seemed to be able to find a way to make a case on just how weird Paul is (while the Dems have been mostly focused on walloping each other). Let’s hope the Dems’ May 18 nominee will fare a little better on that front.

RaceTracker Wiki: KY-Sen

For this diary, the South Atlantic is defined as South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.  This area is one of the fastest growing areas in the nation in regards to population growth.  50 years ago the Democratic party dominated this region.  Today?  Well, it’s just complicated.  I will review the results of certain general election results over the last 50 years.

US House Representation Realignment

After the 1960 general election, the Democrats had approximately 60% of all house seats (and 64 of the 100 senate seats).  I have inserted below the results of certain general elections.

After each US House election, The South Atlantic

1960:  23(D), 1(R)

1964:  25(D), 3(R)

1966:  22(D), 6(R)

1972:  24(D), 7(R)

1978:  25(D), 6(R)

1980:  22(D), 9(R)

1982:  25(D), 10(R)

1990:  22(D), 13(R)

1992:  20(D), 20(R)

1994:  14(D), 26(R)

2000:  13(D), 27(R)

2002:  14(D), 30(R)

2006:  17(D), 27(R)

2008:  18(D), 26(R)

50 years ago, the Republicans literally had no strength in this area.  With the introduction of the civil rights era, the Republicans made some modest gains.  However, the gains were very minimal until the 1992 election of Bill Clinton.  The Contract with (on) America resonated well with the South Atlantic, sweeping in Republicans on record pace.  The Democrats were fairly decimated as a result.  However, with the Bush Administration policies, this area became more skeptical of the Republicans.  There were some Democratic gains, but not as much as other regions in the US.

After each US Senate election, The South Atlantic

1960:  6(D), 0(R)

1964:  5(D), 1(R)

1966:  5(D), 1(R)

1972:  4(D), 2(R)

1978:  5(D), 1(R)

1980:  3(D), 3(R)

1982:  3(D), 3(R)

1990:  4(D), 2(R)

1992:  3(D), 3(R)

1994:  3(D), 3(R)

2000:  5(D), 1(R)

2002:  4(D), 2(R)

2006:  1(D), 5(R)

2008:  1(D), 5(R)

The Democrats had firm control in 1960.  The first Republican held seat in this region resulted from Strom Thurmond’s conversion to a Republican.  In 1980, on the coattails of the Reagan Revolution, the Republicans had a split with the Democrats.  In 2000, with Zell Miller having been appointed in 1999 as the replacement for Corvedell and Bill Nelson’s victory over McCollum, the Democrats again had firm control.  However, over the next few cycles the Democrats lost a seat in SC (Hollings retirement), 2 seats in GA (Miller’s retirement, Cleland’s defeat to Chambliss), and 1 seat in FL (Graham’s retirement).  The sole Democrat representing this region is Bill Nelson, a moderate Democrat.

Conclusions

The former Dixicrats are reluctant to support Democratic candidates.  However, certain Blue Dog Democrats are found appealing to these socially conservtive voters.  This region will support Blue Dogs, evident by Boyd (FL-2), Barrow (GA-12), Bishop (GA-2), Marshall (GA-8), and Scott (GA-13).  The area also contains several majority-African American districts which will be in the hands of Democrats for many years.  However, I believe that the Democrats can still build on these numbers in future years.  Florida is still seeing population growth, and Georgia is a fast growing state too.  Even South Carolina will gain a district from the 2010 Census.  I honestly believe that while the Republicans should hold a mild advantage, the Democrats should be able to obtain a split in the Senate and the House.  We haven’t reached our limit here at all.  Promoting moderate and Blue Dog Democrats in areas controlled by Republicans could help, along with an emphasis on Senior issues, especially in Florida.

Jonathan Narcisse told the Des Moines Register’s Kathie Obradovich yesterday that he won’t run against Governor Chet Culver in the Democratic primary. He plans to register for the ballot as an independent candidate. Narcisse served a term on the Des Moines School board is the publisher of several African-American and Latino-oriented publications. He also appears regularly on some talk radio programs in Iowa. His political views are an unusual blend, as you can see from reading his manifesto, An Iowa Worth Fighting For. Narcisse advocates some ideas commonly associated with Republican candidates (big reductions in corporate and property taxes and the size of government), as well as others usually heard on the political left (e.g. supporting living wage legislation and reform of drug laws and sentencing).

Obradovich reported yesterday,

Narcisse says he collected enough signatures to get on the ballot (the deadline is Friday), but he said his changed his mind about filing based on what he heard from Iowans as he’s traveled around the state.  “They really want an independent voice,” he says, someone not tied to either party.

I asked Narcisse if he would be willing to release the signatures, because otherwise people will be skeptical that he was able to collect them. He didn’t outright refuse but he also didn’t say he would release them. He said he’s used to dealing with skepticism from the media but he’s focused on making his case to voters around the state.  But if he’s going to say he’s collected them, he should prove it.

Obradovich posted a press release from Narcisse, which explained his decision and thanked the volunteers who “helped me obtain the signatures that I needed to be on the June 8th primary ballot.”

Ever since Narcisse announced plans late last month to run for governor as a Democrat, many political observers have privately predicted that he would not be able to meet the signature requirements. Narcisse can speak knowledgeably about public policy for hours, but his campaign manager is a management consultant and former teacher with no previous political experience. Democrats seeking statewide office in Iowa had to submit more than 4,000 total signatures (0.5 percent of the party’s statewide vote in the 2008 presidential election), including at least 1 percent of the party’s vote total in that election in at least 10 counties. (Statewide Republican candidates needed to meet the same percentage targets, but that worked out to fewer total signatures because Barack Obama did so much better than John McCain in Iowa.)

A strong statewide organization could collect more than 4,000 signatures on short order; Republican candidate Rob Gettemy’s campaign collected 3,000 in the second Congressional district in just two weeks. I agree with Obradovich that observers will remain skeptical about Narcisse’s campaign if he doesn’t release his nominating petitions. Republican blogger Craig Robinson writes today that Narcisse’s story has shifted dramatically in the last three days. He concludes, “The inability for Narcisse to get on the Democratic primary ballot is a deadly blow to any credibility he may have had as a candidate.”

Ed Fallon had been recruiting some Democrat other than Narcisse to challenge Culver, but nothing materialized. In my opinion, Culver didn’t deserve a primary challenger despite the many complaints you hear about him from Iowa Democrats.