Month: March 2010

Quinnipiac (3/9-15, registered voters, 1/8-12 in parens):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 62 (62)

Rob Simmons (R): 26 (27)

Undecided: 10 (10)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 61 (64)

Linda McMahon (R): 28 (23)

Undecided: 10 (11)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 64 (66)

Peter Schiff (R): 21 (19)

Undecided: 13 (14)

(MoE: ±2.6%)

And the GOP primary:

Rob Simmons (R): 34 (37)

Linda McMahon (R): 44 (27)

Peter Schiff (R): 9 (4)

Undecided: 12 (28)

(MoE: ±5%)

Let me ask you this: If you were Rob Simmons, why would you possibly want to stay in this race? Don’t get me wrong; I’m glad to see him duke it out against McMahon’s millions instead of making more winnable runs for Governor or his own old Congressional seat, but staying on this course makes little sense if he actually is planning on winning something in November.

I know that the Dems controlling the trifecta in Texas is about as likely as the Detroit Lions winning the next Super Bowl, but I decided to give a Democratic gerrymander a shot anyways. Without further ado, here it is

East Texas:

District 1 (Blue): Louie Gohmert, a real nutjob’s nutjob, is safe as can be in this district, which is shifted north somewhat, but is still based in the congressman’s hometown of Tyler.

Incumbent: Louie Gohmert

Voting: 30% Obama, 70% McCain

Demographics: 72% White, 19% Black, 7% Hispanic

District 2 (Green): Ted Poe will be spending a lot less time in the suburbs, as this is now an East Texas district, although it still includes his home in Humble, which is located in Harris County.

Incumbent: Ted Poe

Voting: 29% Obama, 70% McCain

Demographics: 77% White, 12% Black, 9% Hispanic

District 5 (Yellow): Jeb Hensarling, much like Ted Poe, suddenly finds that most of his constituents are now East Texans. Much of this new territory is currently represented by Ralph Hall, who becomes a man without a district. However, Hensarling’s home is included in the tendril that reaches into Dallas County

Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling

Voting: 33% Obama, 66% McCain

Demographics: 78% White, 10% Hispanic, 8% Black 5% Asian

District 6 (Teal): Joe Barton gets a cozy Republican vote sink, albeit with a small problem named Ralph Hall, since Rockwall County has been added to the district. Hall, being as old as he is, will probably opt to retire rather than be demolished by Barton in the primary.

Incumbents: Joe Barton, Ralph Hall

Voting: 28% Obama, 71% McCain

Demographics: 77% White, 12% Hispanic, 10% Black

District 8 (Periwinkle): Kevin Brady gets an overwhelmingly Republican district based in Montgomery County (Conroe). While most of the district’s population is in Montgomery County, it includes some other heavily Republican rural counties.

Incumbent: Kevin Brady

Voting: 26% Obama, 73% McCain

Demographics: 77% White, 12% Hispanic, 9% Black

District 4 (Red): This district isn’t quite as East Texas-y as the rest of the districts in this category, but it’s based in Beaumont, so I included it here anyways. It’s an open seat that stretches from Beaumont to Harris County, where it picks up some heavily Democratic neighborhoods. It’s drawn to elect a Democrat, and possibly a member of a minority group. If Nick Lampson still has any desire to be a Congressman, this would be the place for him to run.

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 54% Obama, 46% McCain

Demographics: 42% White, 32% Hispanic, 23% Black

Greater Houston:

District 29 (Weird Grayish Green): Gene Green’s district is still heavily Hispanic and Democratic. Gene Green is safe here.

Incumbent: Gene Green

Voting: 60% Obama, 39% McCain

Demographics: 55% Hispanic, 27% White, 15% Black

District 18 (Yellow): Sheila Jackson Lee’s district now has a slight Hispanic plurality, and sees a drop in Democratic performance, although Obama still won this district in a landslide. The edge Hispanics have over Blacks in the district is small enough that a successful racial primary challenge is unlikely.

Incumbent: Sheila Jackson Lee

Voting: 64% Obama, 35% McCain

Demographics: 33% Hispanic, 31% Black, 30% White, 5% Asian

District 20 (Light Pink): This is an open seat that leans Republican. Its creation was necessitated by the screwing over of Pete Olson. In spite of this fact, it has no overlap with Olson’s current district. However, if 2012 is a good year, it’s possible we could contest this.

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 44% Obama, 55% McCain

Demographics: 63% White, 21% Hispanic, 9% Black, 7% Asian

District 9 (Light Blue): This is a plurality-black district represented by Al Green. Like the 18th district, this district sees a sharp drop in Democratic performance. However, Obama won here in a landslide

Incumbent: Al Green

Voting: 64% Obama, 35% McCain

Demographics: 32% Black, 30% White, 28% Hispanic, 9% Asian

District 7 (Gray): Wanna know how I can get all these Democratic districts out of a county that gave Obama 50.5% of the vote? By making sure Republican votes are wasted in districts like this one, which is represented by John Culberson.

Incumbent: John Culberson

Voting: 34% Obama, 66% McCain

Demographics: 69% White, 17% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 6% Black

District 33 (Medium Blue): Now we get to the fun part; setting Republican incumbents up for defeat. Enjoy it, because you won’t see any more of this until we get to Dallas. This is a new, Democratic district based in Fort Bend County. It also includes some minority-heavy areas currently represented by Al Green. Under these lines, Pete Olson’s second term will probably be his last.

Incumbent: Pete Olson

Voting: 55% Obama, 45% McCain

Demographics: 40% White, 23% Hispanic, 22% Black, 14% Asian

Central Texas:

District 17 (Bluish Purple): My number one priority while making this map was protecting Chet Edwards. Out of all 435 members of the House, he is probably my favorite, which is something I never thought I’d say about a Texan. (Seriously, learn to drive in the snow before you come to Colorado in the winter). This district includes his current base of Waco, his pre-DeLaymander base of Bell County, and some minority heavy areas of Travis County where Obama won a staggering 83% of the vote, enough for Obama to carry this district by about 1,000 votes. Edwards is untouchable here, and this district will be a tossup at worst when he retires.

Incumbent: Chet Edwards

Voting: 50% Obama, 49% McCain

Demographics: 54% White, 22% Hispanic, 20% Black

District 25 (Salmon): This district looks like a sprawling, rural slice of Central Texas where a liberal Democrat like Lloyd Doggett wouldn’t stand a snowball’s chance in hell. However, looks can be deceiving. While Austin accounts for only a tiny fraction of the land area, it consists of most of the district’s population, and its liberal voting habits are more than enough to make this a safe Democratic seat.

Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett

Voting: 58% Obama, 40% McCain

Demographics: 56% White, 30% Hispanic, 10% Black

District 36 (Orangeish): This district runs from southern Williamson County to San Marcos, passing through Austin along the way, which is where it gets most of its population. It is an open seat, with a strong Democratic lean.

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 56% Obama, 43% McCain

Demographics: 67% White, 20% Hispanic, 7% Black, 6% Asian



District 24 (Purple): The vote sink where most of the region’s Republicans, along with Congressman Mike McCaul, end up living. While I could have targeted the perpetually shaky McCaul for defeat, I chose to create a new open seat instead.

Incumbent: Mike McCaul

Voting: 33% Obama, 65% McCain

Demographics: 72% White, 18% Hispanic, 7% Black

District 21 (Wine Red): This district, while less Republican than before, would still be an uphill climb for any Dem. It consists of suburban San Antonio, and is represented by Lamar Smith.

Incumbent: Lamar Smith

Voting: 41% Obama, 58% McCain

Demographics: 62% White, 27% Hispanic, 7% Black

District 11 (Radioactive Green): This is a heavily Hispanic district based in San Antonio. It changes very little, but is renumbered (it used to be the 20th).

Incumbent: Charlie Gonzales

Voting: 62% Obama, 36% McCain

Demographics: 67% Hispanic, 24% White, 6% Black

Central Texas, Part II

District 31 (Yellowish Tan): This district is made much, much more Republican, largely due to the inclusion of some very hostile territory that is currently represented by Chet Edwards, and the removal of both Bell County and Democratic areas of Williamson County. Obama didn’t even break 30% here, and John Carter is completely safe.

Incumbent: John Carter

Voting: 29% Obama, 70% McCain

Demographics: 82% White, 11% Hispanic, 4% Black

District 26 (Dark Gray): Here’s another Republican vote sink. I really wouldn’t consider this a Central Texas district, as most of its residents live in Denton and Tarrant Counties, but it didn’t fit in the screen shot of Dallas, so it gets lumped in here. It is represented by Michael Burgess, who is an anonymous backbencher. However, it was formerly represented by Dick Armey.

Incumbent: Michael Burgess

Voting: 32% Obama, 67% McCain

Demographics: 82% White, 10% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 4% Black

District 12 (Light Blue): This district is designed to pack Republicans, and connects two separate, heavily Republican sections of Tarrant County via Johnson County.

Incumbent: Kay Granger

Voting: 34% Obama, 65% McCain

Demographics: 76% White, 13% Hispanic, 6% Black

Dallas/Fort Worth:

District 35 (Light Purple): This district, which resembles a backward L, is a newly created open seat that is composed of suburbs to the east and south of Dallas. It is contained entirely within Dallas County, and was won handily by Obama.

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 56% Obama, 43% McCain

Demographics: 56% White, 20% Black, 19% Hispanic, 6% Asian

District 30 (Salmon): This is a heavily Democratic, plurality Black district represented by Eddie Bernice Johnson. It meanders about Dallas County, combining minority-heavy Democratic areas with areas to the north of Dallas that are heavily White and Republican, and currently form the base of Pete Sessions, who is unfortunate enough to find his home in this district, although the prospect of him running here is unlikely, as there are several less hostile districts nearby.

Incumbents: Eddie Bernice Johnson, Pete Sessions

Voting: 66% Obama, 33% McCain

Demographics: 34% Black, 32% Hispanic, 31% White

District 34 (Green): This is another open seat which should lean Democratic. It includes a fair bit of territory that is currently represented by Pete Sessions, but I just don’t see a district that’s only 42% White electing a Republican.

Incumbents: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 55% Obama, 44% McCain

Demographics: 42% White, 38% Hispanic, 12% Black, 7% Asian

District 22 (Brown): This is easily the most gerrymandered district in the entire state. It meanders through Tarrant, Denton, Collin, and Dallas counties, picking up swingish areas, and includes a small portion of Central Dallas, which is enough to put Obama over the top here. While Kenny Marchant isn’t a sure loser under these lines, he’ll have a tough fight on his hands hold onto this district, where much of the territory is new to him. Even if he wins in 2012, this district is trending Democratic, and he will never be able to take it for granted.

Incumbent: Kenny Marchant

Voting: 51% Obama, 48% McCain

Demographics: 57% White, 22% Hispanic, 13% Black, 8% Asian

District 3 (Dark Purple): Nothing to see here, folks. This district is heavily Republican and based in Plano. It is represented by Sam Johnson, and even after he retires, as folks his age are bound to do eventually, it will be safe for the Republicans.

Incumbent: Sam Johnson

Voting: 37% Obama, 62% McCain

Demographics: 78% White, 10% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 5% Black

District 32 (Orange): This is a new, Democratic district which encompasses much of Tarrant County. Obama won here handily, and whoever wins the Democratic nomination will be a strong favorite.

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 56% Obama, 43% McCain

Demographics: 48% White, 27% Hispanic, 20% Black

West Texas:

District 13 (Light Pink): It’s unbelievable that this district was represented by a Democrat as late as the 1990s, because now it’s the most Republican district in Texas, and possibly in the entire nation. Obama flirted with the 20% mark here, while McCain scored close to 80%. It’s based in Amarillo, and includes the Texas Panhandle, and expands to take in some conservative areas south of Wichita Falls.

Incumbent: Mac Thornberry

Voting: 22% Obama, 77% McCain

Demographics: 74% White, 18% Hispanic, 5% Black

District 19 (Pea Soup Green): This district, while still stretching from Lubbock to Abilene, takes on a much less gerrymandered appearance, but doesn’t lose any Republican strength. Randy Neugebauer is still a Congressman for life.

Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer

Voting: 28% Obama, 71% McCain

Demographics: 63% White, 29% Hispanic, 6% Black

More West Texas/El Paso:

District 10 (Hot Pink): This Midland-based district exists due to Tom Craddick. It does an excellent job of packing Republicans, so I figured I’d keep it around.

Incumbent: Mike Conaway

Voting: 24% Obama, 75% McCain

Demographics: 67% White, 28% Hispanic, 3% Black

District 16 (Bright Green): This is a heavily Democratic and Hispanic district based in El Paso. It hardly changes at all from its current form.

Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes

Voting: 65% Obama, 34% McCain

Demographics: 76% Hispanic, 18% White, 3% Black

District 23 (Pale Blue): Ciro Rodriguez comes out of redistricting as a big winner. His district goes from one that barely supported Obama over McCain to one that supported Obama with over 60% of the vote. This is because it no longer includes nearly as many Republican areas of Bexar County. Taking the place of those Republican areas are heavily Democratic neighborhoods in San Antonio.

Incumbent: Ciro Rodriguez

Voting: 61% Obama, 38% McCain

Demographics: 72% Hispanic, 21% White, 5% Black

South Texas:

District 28 (Light Purple): This district, which stretches from the border town of Laredo to the exurbs of Houston, adds some Democratic strength. I find the current map, where a couple of the South TX districts, including this one, have Republican PVIs, to be no bueno, and I set about rectifying that situation.

Incumbent: Henry Cuellar

Voting: 55% Obama, 44% McCain

Demographics: 76% Hispanic, 20% White, 3% Black

District 15 (Orange): This district becomes much more compact and Democratic, and is concentrated mostly in Hidalgo County. Ruben Hinojosa has nothing to worry about here.

Incumbent: Ruben Hinojosa

Voting: 66% Obama, 33% McCain

Demographics: 85% Hispanic, 13% White

District 27 (Greenish): This district, which stretches from Corpus Christi to Brownsville is, heavily Hispanic. Like the other Hispanic districts in South Texas, it becomes somewhat more Democratic.

Incumbent: Solomon Ortiz

Voting: 56% Obama, 43% McCain

Demographics: 74% Hispanic, 22% White, 2% Black

District 14 (Greenish Brown): We finish with the district of Ron Paul. The vast majority of this district’s population is in Brazoria County, which is where Paul is from. The district is heavily Republican.

Incumbent: Ron Paul

Voting: 34% Obama, 65% McCain

Demographics: 62% White, 28% Hispanic, 7% Black

• CO-Sen, CO-Gov: As we mentioned on the front page yesterday, Andrew Romanoff won the Democratic primary precinct-level caucuses last night; the final tally, percentage-wise, was 51-42 (with 7% uncommitted) over Michael Bennet (who, by the way, hit the airwaves with the first TV spot yesterday, a decidedly anti-Washington ad). Things were actually much closer on the GOP side, where it looks like ultra-conservative Weld County DA Ken Buck is actually leading establishment fave Jane Norton by a paper-thin margin (37.9% to 37.7%). Of course, the activist-dominated straw polls are going to be Buck’s strong suit and his strength here may not translate as well to the broader GOP electorate, but he performed well enough to show that he’s in this for the long haul. (A similar dynamic played out in the Governor’s race, where ex-Rep. Scott McInnis easily beat teabagger Dan Maes, 61-39, although Maes has polled in the single digits out in reality.)

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP’s monthly poll of the North Carolina Senate race general election shows little change, with Richard Burr (with a 35/37 approval) still winning in very humdrum fashion. Burr leads Elaine Marshall 41-36 (a positive trend, as she was down by 10 last month, although she was also within 5 of Burr in December). He also leads both Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis 43-32, and leads Generic Dem only 41-39. With low familiarity for all three Dems (Marshall’s the best-known, but even she generates 71% “not sure”s), PPP’s Tom Jensen expects the race to tighten once they actually have a nominee.

• WA-Sen: Here’s some food for thought on why Dino Rossi has retreated back to the private sector and has seemed reluctant to come back out to play, despite the NRSC’s constant entreaties: his financial links to Seattle real estate developer Michael Mastro, whose local real estate empire collapsed in late 2008, leaving hundreds of investors out to dry.

• MA-Gov: Here’s more evidence that Tim Cahill, a Democrat until a few months ago, is heading off to the right to try and claim some of Republican Charlie Baker’s turf for his independent challenge to Deval Patrick: he fessed up to having voted for John McCain and is attacking Massachusetts’s universal health care plan (which even Scott Brown didn’t have a beef with, during his campaign) and saying that if the nation took the same approach it would be bankrupt “in four years.”

• NM-Gov: Oooops. Pete Domenici Jr. got a little presumptuous prior to the state’s Republican convention, issuing fliers touting his “great success” and his getting put on the ballot. Turns out neither happened — his 5% showing was last place, not a great success, and didn’t qualify him for the ballot either (he can still do so by gathering signatures).

• NY-Gov: This may be a tea leaf that Democratic Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy is gearing up to challenge ex-Rep. Rick Lazio for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. He hired a Republican consultant, Michael Hook, to help with preparations. Meanwhile, will the last person left in David Paterson‘s employ please turn the lights out? Another top staffer, press secretary Marissa Shorenstein just hit the exits today.

• PA-Gov, PA-Sen: Could ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel be knocked off the Democratic gubernatorial primary ballot? That’s what Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato is trying to make happen, as his team is challenging the validity of Hoeffel’s 7,632 ballot petitions. In order to qualify for the ballot, candidates need 2,000 valid signatures, including at least 100 from 10 different counties. (JL) Hoeffel’s not the only one; Joe Sestak‘s also challenging signatures in the Senate primary. Sestak’s target isn’t Arlen Specter, though, but rather Joseph Vodvarka, a Pittsburgh-area businessman who was a surprise last-minute filer and is the primary’s only third wheel. Sestak, no doubt, is worried that Vodvarka could peel off enough anti-Specter votes to throw a very close election.

• HI-01: Here’s a sign of life from the seemingly placid Colleen Hanabusa campaign; she just got the endorsement of the Hawaii State Teachers’ Association. (Not that it was likely they’d endorse Ed Case, but it’s still important for GOTV.)

• NY-13: Politico’s Ben Smith reported that Republican state Senator Andrew Lanza was taking a second look at the race in the 13th, now that the possibility of the Working Families Party withdrawing its support for Rep. Mike McMahon (if he votes against health care reform) could make a GOP challenge easier in the face of a divided left. The NRCC denied having reached out to Lanza; Lanza confirmed, though, that they had, but said that he was still unlikely to get in the race, preferring to focus on taking back GOP control of the state Senate. While the two GOPers in the race, Michael Grimm and Michael Allegretti, both have had some fundraising success, Lanza would be a definite upgrade for the GOP in the unlikely event he runs.

• PA-06: Another bummer for Doug Pike, who seems to be losing as many endorsements as he’s gaining these days. State Rep. Josh Shapiro, who briefly explored a bid for U.S. Senate last year, has officially switched his endorsement from Pike to “neutral”. (JL)

• SC-03: With rivals Rex Rice and Jeff Duncan (both state Reps.) having gotten the lion’s share of the endorsements and money, state Sen. Shane Massey appears ready to drop out of the GOP primary field in the 3rd. It looks like it’ll be a two-man fight between the Huckabee-backed Rice and CfG-backed Duncan.

• VA-05: I’ll repeat all the usual caveats about how straw polls reflect the most extreme and engaged activists, not the broader electorate, bla bla bla, but there’s just no good way for state Sen. Robert Hurt to spin his showing at the Franklin County GOP Republican Womens’ straw poll. The establishment pick drew 11.6% of the vote, while self-funding teabagger Jim McKelvey grabbed 51%.

• WA-03: The Dick Army (aka FreedomWorks) has weighed in with a rare primary endorsement in a rather unexpected place: the GOP primary in the open seat in the 3rd. They endorsed David Castillo, the financial advisor and former Bush administration underling who stayed in the race despite state Rep. Jaime Herrera’s entry. Here’s the likely explanation: Castillo actually used to work for FreedomWorks’ predecessor organization, Citizens for a Sound Economy. Still, that’s a boost for Castillo, who’s been faring pretty well on the endorsements front against the establishment pick Herrera (and a boost for Dems, who’d no doubt like to see a brutal GOP primary). Meanwhile, on the Dem side, state Sen. Craig Pridemore is holding outgoing Rep. Brian Baird’s feet to the fire to get him to switch his vote to “yes” on health care reform; primary opponent Denny Heck has avoided taking much of a position on HCR.

• Census: Here’s some interesting background on how the Census protects respondents’ privacy. Not only are individual responses sealed for 72 years, but the Census intentionally adds “noise” that camouflages individuals whose particular combination of data would make them unique in some way and thus not be anonymous, at least to someone seeking them out (for instance, they cite the hypothetical only 65-year-old married woman attending college in North Dakota). (P.S.: You probably got your form in the last day or two. Please fill it out!)

AR-Sen: As Reid Wilson says, here’s something you don’t see every day – at least, not in a Dem primary. Blanche Lincoln is attacking the labor unions who are supporting her opponent, Bill Halter. Lincoln is also doing her best to warm the hearts of the faithful by taking John Boehner’s side in the latest kerfuffle over House procedural tactics with regard to healthcare reform.

CO-Sen: Dem Sen. Michael Bennet has his first TV ad up, a $300K buy in Denver and Colorado Springs. Greg Giroux suggests that the timing is deliberate, since Bennet will be looking to blunt any possible momentum Romanoff might have received coming out of last night’s precinct caucuses.

FL-Sen: All the cool kids have already done it, which means anyone getting on the Marco Rubio bandwagon at this late date is just a fair-weather fan. Still, GOP Rep. Tom Price is chair of the Republican Study Committee, which is the Borg collective mothership of right-wing crazy, so this gives Rubio the Good Wingnut Seal of Approval™. Resistance is futile.

MA-Sen: That didn’t take long – newly-minted GOP Sen. Scott Brown will be hosting his first inside-the-beltway fundraiser, at $1000 a head. Of course, it’ll be at the offices of lobbying firm Duane Morris. My advice to Scott Brown is to hold lots and lots of events with lobbyists. Also, become the anti-healthcare frontman for your party. Thanks for helping out with that, Mitch McConnell!

NV-Sen: Memo to reporters: Please include information about the size of ad buys (especially for attack ads) when you’re writing them up. There are too many tiny buys made solely for the purpose of spinning the media. We the people need to know if we’re being spun, too.

NY-Sen-B: Republican ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi officially offered himself up as a sacrificial lamb entered the race to take on Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand yesterday.

PA-Sen: Arlen Specter snagged another valuable endorsement yesterday, this time from the 191,000-strong Pennsylvania State Education Association. (JL)

WI-Sen: A source close to Tommy Thompson’s jowls says that the former governor is “50-50” on whether he will play Droopy Dog in the upcoming remake.

SC-Gov: It’s payback time – Willard Mitt Romney is endorsing Mark Sanford protégé and state Rep. Nikki Haley for governor. Haley, as you’ve probably gathered, had endorsed Mittens in 2008 for the key SC primary. Other presidential wannabes have also returned the favor to their respective buddies; Reid Wilson has the full scorecard.

AZ-08: GOPer Jonathan Paton, who recently resigned from the state Senate to challenge Rep. Gabby Giffords, was added to the NRCC’s Young Guns program. Three other Republicans are seeking their party’s nod, including one candidate already on the Young Guns list, Marine Corps vet Jesse Kelly. Paton is almost certainly the establishment favorite, though.

LA-02: It’s hard to know what to make of the GOP’s attitude toward Joe Cao’s seat. On the one hand, they let him get mixed up with the sketchmeisters at BMW Direct. On the other, John Boehner just held a $500/person fundraiser for Cao last night on Capitol Hill. But then on the flipside, it looks like Cao will flip-flop and vote against healthcare this time, which will surely doom him in November. So why waste the money on him? Perhaps GOP bigs figure that buying Cao off will pay dividends when the party is able to point to unanimous opposition to the healthcare bill.

ND-AL: The campaign manager for former state House Majority Leader Rick Berg, a leading challenger to Earl Pomeroy, resigned yesterday, after misusing a state Republican Party email list and lying about it.

NY-13: Andy Stern wasn’t kidding. The SEIU is running a full-page ad in today’s Staten Island Advance urging Rep. Mike McMahon to vote in favor of healthcare reform. Greg Sargent has a copy of the full ad (PDF). This ad could presage a primary or third-party challenge should McMahon vote no, something Stern has already threatened.

SD-AL: Steve Hildebrand, a top Obama campaign official, says he’s considering a challenge to Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in the Democratic primary, particularly if she votes against healthcare.

DNC: This is Not News. DNC chair Tim Kaine says that Organizing for America will help Dems who vote “yes” on healthcare reform… but of course doesn’t say that he’ll withhold help from Dems who vote “no.” I wouldn’t expect him to, hence why this is Not News.

Healthcare: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce absolutely, definitely, most assuredly is not not NOT concern trolling House Democrats on the upcoming healthcare vote. They have our best interests at heart, and spent money on polling because they genuinely care about us.

Much more interesting poll numbers on healthcare can be found here. It turns out that the public was evenly divided on Medicare before it became law, too. Now, of course, the program is unassailable.

Kentucky: A bill to let independents vote in Democratic or Republican primaries died in the KY House.

WATN: I guess with Eric Massa stealing the limelight these days, Mark Foley feels emboldened to make his return to DC. He’ll be a guest at one of those unduly cozy black-tie beltway affairs, the Radio and TV Correspondents’ Dinner.

SSP: I’m not done begging. We’re at 1,386 Twitter followers. SO close to 1,400. Make it happen. Pretty please?

Sorry for not putting up a thread earlier. In tonight’s special election for the state Senate in Queens, it looks like Dem Jose Peralta is crushing disgraced ex-Sen. Hiram Monserrate (now running as an independent) 60-33 with a quarter of precincts reporting.

UPDATE (James): Looking for Colorado caucus results? Democrats have a nice spreadsheet of results, while Republicans are actually forcing you to download an Excel file to see their state of affairs. The Colorado Springs Gazette and the Denver Post are also liveblogging the caucuses.

UPDATE (J): With 56 of 158 precincts in, Peralta leads Monserrate by 61-33.

CONCESSION UPDATE (J): Monserrate has conceded the race. Woo-hoo!

UPDATE: So far, Romanoff leads Bennet by 904-704 in the precinct caucus count.

UPDATE: Romanoff now has a 4764-3248 edge on Bennet after a big win in the Denver precincts.

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Lots of pollsters that I’ve never heard of seem to be coming out of the woodwork to poll California lately, and here’s yet another one of them: some firm called ccAdvertising. They polled the Republican primaries, finding, on the Senate side, that Tom Campbell leads at 24, with Carly Fiorina at 12 and Chuck DeVore at 8. On the gubernatorial side, Meg Whitman leads Steve Poizner 40-15.

• CO-Sen: Tonight is the first step in the Colorado caucus process, with precinct-level gatherings. The results are non-binding, really more of a straw poll than anything, but are monitored as a sign of candidates’ strength. (Of course, in 2004, neither Ken Salazar nor Pete Coors won the caucuses yet went on to win their primaries.) The bigger hurdle is in May, when candidates must clear 30% at the state assembly to make the primary ballot (although those that don’t can still get on by collecting signatures). With the Governor’s race pretty much locked down, there’s still action aplenty on both the Dem and GOP sides in the Senate. Michael Bennet comes into tonight’s caucuses with a boost: he just got the endorsement from the state’s AFSCME, which may help fight the perception that rival Andrew Romanoff is labor’s one horse in the race.

• CT-Sen: Paulist economist Peter Schiff is finally dipping into the spoils from his moneybombs, running ads on Connecticut radio introducing himself to Republican primary voters and touting his having predicted the financial crisis of 2008.

• ID-Sen: Democrats are already way ahead of where they were in their last race against Mike Crapo in 2004: they’re actually fielding a candidate. Two, in fact, have filed, although they’re little known: Tom Sullivan and William Bryk.

• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk is up with his first TV spot for the general election campaign, calling himself an “independent-minded Republican.” Having beaten back various teabagger challengers in the primary, he’s now free to label himself as such.

• MD-Sen: File this under news of the weird: Bob Ehrlich is confirming he’s interested in running for office this year, but one idea he’s floating is running for Senate against Barbara Mikulski instead of for Governor against Martin O’Malley. That’s a very strange choice, as Mikulski is more popular than O’Malley and generally considered unassailable, but maybe Ehrlich thinks he can goad the 73-year-old Mikulski into retirement.

• NC-Sen: Two polls of the Democratic primary in the Senate race show fairly different pictures, with the main difference being how well Cal Cunningham is keeping pace with Elaine Marshall. PPP’s most recent poll of the primary shows Cunningham gaining four points from last month, trailing Marshall 20-16, with 11 for Kenneth Lewis (up from 5). On the GOP side, Richard Burr is at 58%, with his minor rivals all in the low single digits. Marshall, on the other hand, released her own internal yesterday, from Lake Research. The poll’s a little stale (in the field mid-February), so if the PPP poll reflects late movement to Cunningham, Marshall’s poll wouldn’t capture it. At any rate, her internal has her up 31-5 over Cunningham, with Lewis at 4.

• NJ-Sen: A weird-ass ruling from a New Jersey appellate court says the Tea Party may proceed with collecting recall petitions to recall Bob Menendez. The court, however, stayed its own decision in order to allow Menendez to appeal, presumably to a federal court which will disabuse the state judges of the notion that one can recall federal officials. (Adam B. points to the crux of the case here and here).

• AL-Gov, AR-Gov: Financial filings for gubernatorial candidates in Alabama and Arkansas are both available. In Alabama, Tim James ($2.6 mil) leads the GOPers, while Artur Davis ($2.1 mil) has the most cash among the Dems. In Arkansas, Mike Beebe is sitting on $1.2 million (having raised $313K in February); his opponent, Jim Keet, hasn’t been in long enough to report.

• ME-Gov: It looks like there won’t be a Green Party candidate on the ballot this year; Lynne Williams suspended her campaign after failing to gather the 2,000 required signatures. That’s good news for Dems, as this could turn out to be a close race (although with this little information and the fields this cluttered, who the hell knows?) and Greens often poll well in Maine, getting 9% of the vote in the convoluted 2006 gubernatorial election.

• PA-Gov (pdf): There was a gubernatorial portion to that poll from Republican pollster Susquehanna released yesterday, too. As with every poll of this race, undecideds are still very heavy, but Republican AG Tom Corbett leads Democratic state Auditor Jack Wagner 37-26, and leads Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato 39-24. Wagner has been dominating in terms of getting the endorsements of county-level party apparatuses, and he picked up one more yesterday, getting the nod from Cambria County (i.e. Johnstown) Democrats.

• WY-Gov: To almost no one’s surprise, Republican state House speaker Colin Simpson pulled the trigger, officially entering the gubernatorial race. (If his name sounds familiar, he’s the son of popular ex-Sen. Alan Simpson.) He faces three other high-profile GOPers, while Democrats, sorting out what to do after Dave Freudenthal’s late decision not to seek a third term, are still lining up a candidate.

• AK-AL: Rep. Don Young is refusing to get with the program, as far as the GOP’s new self-imposed ban on earmarks goes. Considering that Young seems most valued by his constituents for his ability to bring home the bacon (which may have saved his bacon twice, in both the primary and general in 2008), that may actually be the politically savvy thing for him to do.

• HI-01: The first debate was held in the special election in the 1st, and it may be most interesting in that ex-Rep. Ed Case was trying to stake out positions that sound pretty, well, Democratic. Case spoke out in favor of both health care reform and the stimulus package. Moderate Republican Charles Djou tried to differentiate himself by railing against both.

• IA-03: I don’t know if this is just one ex-wrestling coach sticking up for another, or if there’s an establishment movement afoot to coronate Jim Gibbons in the 3rd, but ex-Speaker Dennis Hastert is showing up to host a Des Moines fundraiser for Gibbons tomorrow. They’ll be joined by ex-Rep. Greg Ganske.

• PA-07: I love the smell of cat fud in the morning. While former local Fox affiliate news anchor Dawn Stensland didn’t file to run in the Republican primary as has been rumored, now she’s not ruling out an independent, teabagger-powered run instead. While she hasn’t begun gathering signatures, she is looking to move into the 7th. Even if she only garners a few percent, that could still tip the balance in what promises to be a very close race between Democrat Bryan Lentz and GOPer Pat Meehan.

• House: The Hill has an interesting survey of eight different primaries where the one participant’s vote on TARP could weigh heavily on the results (as it seemed to do in the Texas gubernatorial primary). Most are on the GOP side, but one Dem race to watch is PA-11, where Paul Kanjorski, the chair of the House subcommittee on Capital Markets, was one of TARP’s architects.

• NRCC: The NRCC is threatening to go on the air against Dems who change from “no” to “yes” votes on HCR, targeting them with the dread “flip-flop” label that served them so well in 2004. They have 42 Dems in mind to target, although there’s still the little wee matter of the NRCC finding the money to pay for the ads.

• NY-St. Sen.: Tonight’s the special election in SD-13 in Queens, where Hiram Monserrate is trying to win back the seat he just got kicked out of after his assault conviction. Monserrate, now an indie, is running against Democratic Assemblyman Jose Peralta. Peralta had a dominant lead in the one poll of the race made public.

• Ads: With the Demon Sheep and Boxer Blimp ads having established Carly Fiorina’s campaign as the new gold standard in bizarre advertising, Huffington Post has a nice wrapup of some of the other craziest political ads of the last few years, ranging from the well-known (Mike Gravel skipping rocks, Big John Cornyn) to the “huh?” (Nancy Worley on strangling cats).

• TV: Obsessive-compulsive political junkies and opposition researchers alike are dancing a jig right now, as C-Span has announced that it’s releasing its entire archives onto the Web. All 160,000 hours worth. (If you don’t have a calculator handy, that’s 18 years.)

• Redistricting: Eager not to get behind the redistricting 8-ball in 2012 like they were ten years ago, the DLCC has launched a $20 million push aimed at keeping control of state legislatures in key states. They point to “swing” chambers in 17 states that have the capacity to affect almost half of all House seats. Dem-held chambers they’re focusing on are the Alabama State Senate, Colorado State Senate, Indiana House, Nevada State Senate, New Hampshire State Senate, New York State Senate, Ohio House, Pennsylvania House, Wisconsin Assembly and the Wisconsin State Senate, while GOP-held chambers are the Michigan State Senate, Missouri House, Oklahoma State Senate, Tennessee House, and the Texas House.

{Originally posted at my blog Senate Guru.}

Best I can tell, there are five 2010 U.S. Senate races that still don’t have a Democratic candidate.

State	Republican Incumbent	Filing Deadline
Alaska	Lisa Murkowski	June 1
Georgia	Johnny Isakson	April 30
Idaho	Mike Crapo	March 19
Oklahoma	Tom Coburn	June 9
South Dakota	John Thune	March 30

It should be unacceptable to not run a candidate.  For Party building and grassroots organizing, for holding the Republican incumbent accountable, and for the rare occasion when we catch lightning in a bottle, there should not be a race for U.S. Senate that doesn’t feature a Democratic option on the ballot.

Of the five, the soonest deadlines are Idaho (March 19 – this Friday!) and South Dakota (March 30 – two weeks from today).  While no race should go unchallenged, these two would be among our most uphill of challenges.  In 2008, of course a very Democratic-friendly year, the Democratic nominee in Idaho, a former Congressman, could only achieve 34% on Election Day.  (Note that Idaho is, technically, not without a Democratic candidate.  Attorney William Bryk has said that he will seek the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Idaho.  The one hang-up: he lives in Brooklyn, New York.  He simply believes that no race should go unchallenged and doesn’t think that the Idaho Democratic Party will field a candidate.  Though Idaho law states that a candidate need only be a resident of the state by the day of the general election, obviously no out-of-state candidate will be taken seriously.)  Further, John Thune enjoys significant popularity in South Dakota, without any recent murmurs of Democratic challengers.  While seemingly unlikely at this point, I hope Democratic candidates of some substance emerge in these two states.

The next two deadlines on the list – Georgia (April 30) and Alaska (June 1) – would be the most unforgivable of the five if Democrats were unable to find credible challengers.  Georgia is a state where Democrats can surprise Republican incumbents.  Recall the 2008 election in which Democrat Jim Martin entered the race relatively late, won a crowded primary, and forced incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss to a run-off by holding him under 50% on Election Day.  On top of that, the 2010 Republican incumbent, freshman backbencher Johnny Isakson, has poor approval numbers.  Public Policy Polling recently put Isakson’s numbers at 36% approve, 38% disapprove.  Less than a year ago, a hypothetical match-up by Research 2000 between Isakson and Democratic former Governor Roy Barnes showed a statistical dead heat.  Isakson can be beaten.  Georgia has Democrats strong enough to take on and defeat Isakson.  Currently, the Democratic primary for Governor is crowded, though former Governor Barnes has comfortably led the pack.  Georgia Attorney General Thurbert Baker has been running second to Barnes in the primary pack.  Also in the Democratic scrum is David Poythress.  Poythress hasn’t been able to get traction with primary voters to climb out of single digits in any poll, but he brings with him an outstanding resume of service to Georgia: an Air Force veteran, a former Georgia Secretary of State, a former State Labor Commissioner, and a former Adjutant General leading Georgia’s National Guard, having been elected statewide multiple times and appointed to office by Governors of both Parties.  If either Baker or Poythress switched gears from a gubernatorial bid to a Senate bid, either could sew up the nomination and offer Isakson an extremely tough race.  Baker is running strongly enough in some primary polls that it would be unlikely that he’d switch gears; but, Poythress – again, unable to climb out of single digits in the Democratic primary against Barnes and Baker – might be more amenable to a switch from a likely-fruitless gubernatorial bid to a high profile, winnable Senate campaign.

In Alaska, incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski apparently enjoys higher approval among her constituents than Isakson does among his.  Nevertheless, Murkowski is beatable.  In recent years, the Alaska Republican Party has become synonymous with corruption.  The blowback from this Alaska GOP Culture of Corruption culminated with the 2008 dethroning of Ted Stevens.  And Murkowski herself has been touched by considerable controversy of her own.  You may recall that she started off on the wrong foot when she won her job courtesy of nepotism.  Her dad, Frank, appointed her to his old seat when he became Governor.  (Thanks in part to this nepotism, Frank was himself kicked out of office courtesy of a primary loss to small town Mayor Sarah Palin.)  Since then, Murkowski dipped her toe into the Alaska GOP Corruption pool when she took part in a sweetheart land deal, purchasing prime property at well below market value from, of all people, one of Ted Stevens’ corporate cronies – only selling back the land at the discount price for which she received it once the media caught wind of the shenanigans.  Murkowski’s shady dealings earned her a spot in the 2007 edition (in PDF) of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington’s annual “most corrupt members of Congress” list.  Alaska Dems have about two and a half months to secure a credible challenger.  Please share your thoughts on a potential strong recruit in the comments.

Finally, Oklahoma (June 9), like Idaho earlier on this list, had a 2008 Democratic Senate nominee who enjoyed substantial charisma and a solid message, but was unable to crack 40%.  No doubt, Oklahoma would be a similarly uphill race for any Democrat.  Even popular Democratic Governor Brad Henry trailed Republican incumbent Tom Coburn by double digits in a 2009 hypothetical match-up by Public Policy Polling.  Still, as always, not finding any Democratic candidate of substance to run is political malpractice.

Of the five U.S. Senate races still seeking a credible Democratic candidate, two are not only potentially competitive but truly winnable with the right candidate.  Your thoughts?  Do you have a preferred candidate in Georgia or Alaska (or the other three states)?  Do you have a preferred course of action – a movement to urge/persuade/beg David Poythress to switch races or a draft effort in Alaska?  Share in the comments!

The Upper South has previously been defined as Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina.  I am a native of this region (North Carolina), and the one thing I want to emphasize is that this region is continually evolving.  Back in 1992 and 1996, WV, KY, and TN supported the Democratic Presidential Candidate while NC and VA supported the Republican presidential candidate.  In 2008, these states switched their support:  KY, TN, and WV supported McCain while NC and VA supported Obama.  Yes, two great Southerners named Al Gore and Bill Clinton were on the 1992 and 1996 Presidential ticket, which partially explains why KY, TN and WV voted Democratic, but 4 years later, in 2000, Al Gore lost all three of these states.

This region is comprised of two distinct areas:  VA/NC, where we are seeing considerable population growth, and WV/KY/TN, where population growth is slow.  

House Representation Realignment

In 1960, the Democrats occupied roughly 60% of all of the House Seats.  I have inserted selected final results of certain general elections.

After each US House election, Upper South

1960:  37(D), 8(R)

1964:  33(D), 9(R)

1966:  27(D), 15(R)

1970:  26(D), 16(R)

1972:  22(D), 18(R)

1974:  28(D), 12(R)

1978:  26(D), 14(R)

1980:  19(D), 21(R)

1982:  27(D), 14(R)

1992:  28(D), 13(R)

1994:  19(D), 22(R)

2000:  16(D), 25(R)

2004:  17(D), 25(R)

2006:  19(D), 23(R)

2008:  23(D), 19(R)

After reviewing this data, I determined that this area is very sensitive towards “wave” elections, such as 1966, 1974, 1980, 1982, 1994, and 2006/2008.  When measuring the mood of the National electorate, we probably should give special consideration to this region.

After each US Senate election, Upper South

1960:  8(D), 2(R)

1964:  8(D), 2(R)

1966:  7(D), 3(R)

1970:  6(D), 4(R)

1972:  5(D), 5(R)

1974:  6(D), 4(R)

1978:  7(D), 3(R)

1980:  6(D), 4(R)

1982:  5(D), 5(R)

1992:  6(D), 4(R)

1994:  4(D), 6(R)

2000:  3(D), 7(R)

2004:  2(D), 8(R)

2006:  3(D), 7(R)

2008:  5(D), 5(R)

Fifty years ago, this area was dominated by the Democrats.  Both Republicans represented KY, and both were fairly moderate for that period of time.  The Democrats included Sam Ervin, Everett Jordan, Robert Byrd, Willis Robertson, and Harry Byrd, all of whom were initially against the Civil Rights movement.  By 1972, with the election of Jesse Helms, the Republicans and Democrats split control of this region, probably on the strength of Richard Nixon.  After the Watergate fiasco and having a Southerner (Jimmy Carter) as President, the Democrats regained some strength, maintaining a slight advantage thru 1992.  In 1994, with many clouds of uncertainty around Bill Clinton’s administration, the Republicans gained the upper hand.  By 2004, the only 2 Democratic Senators in the Upper South were Jay Rockefeller and Robert Byrd.  As a result of the Bush administration’s problems with the Iraq War/Ecomony/Ethics issues, the Democrats gained some momentum, and by 2008 this region was split in half between the GOP and the Democrats.

Conclusions

Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have a strong foothold in this region.  KY and TN may have 2 GOP senators, but both state governors are currently Democrats.  West Virginia might have two Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor, but they have taken a sharp turn to the right in Presidential elections.  Virginia also has two Democratic Senators, but the Commonwealth just elected a Republican Governor.  NC, the only state in this region that has 1 Democratic Senator and 1 Republican Senator, has for the first time in 32 years supported a Democratic Presidential candidate, albeit a narrow margin.  

2010 will be a pivotal year for this region.  The western portion of the Upper South might see a couple of house seats switching hands to the Republicans.  Virginia has several Democratic seats that Republicans might win (VA-02, VA-05, and possibly VA-09 and VA-11).  We should closely monitor the house seats in this area for signs of trouble for the Dems.   I feel that if the Dems only lose 2-3 Upper South house seats in 2010, we will be just fine.  Luckily for the Dems, none of the 5 Democratic Senators are up for reelection.