Month: May 2010

Quinnipiac (5/24-25, registered voters, 3/9-15 in parens):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 56 (61)

Linda McMahon (R): 31 (28)

Undecided: 10 (10)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (62)

Rob Simmons (R): 28 (26)

Undecided: 13 (10)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 59 (64)

Peter Schiff (R): 25 (21)

Undecided: 13 (13)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

If Quinnipiac is to believed, it looks like Richard Blumenthal has weathered the storm of his Vietnam flap with remarkable ease, only losing a handful of points off of his ample margins from March. Indeed, Quinnipiac asked a number of specific questions on the issue, finding that, by a margin of 53-35, voters were satisfied with Blumenthal’s explanation of the matter, and that, by a 54-38 margin, voters believe he misspoke rather than lied. A full 61% say that the issue isn’t impacting their preferences in the race one way or the other, while 33% say that it’s made them less likely to vote for Blumenthal. While this flare-up has not been pleasant at all, it certainly starting to look like the weight of the issue has been overstated.

Meanwhile, Quinnipiac also polled the GOP primary. Keep in mind that half of this sample was polled before Simmons pulled the plug on his own campaign:

Rob Simmons (R): 23 (34)

Linda McMahon (R): 49 (44)

Peter Schiff (R): 11 (9)

Undecided: 15 (12)

(MoE: ±6.5%)

And we also have some gubernatorial primaries:

Ned Lamont (D): 41 (28)

Dan Malloy (D): 24 (18)

Undecided: 30 (44)

(MoE: ±5%)

Tom Foley (R): 37 (37)

Mike Fedele (R): 11 (13)

Oz Griebel (R): 5 (7)

(MoE: ±6.5%)

NV-Sen: Chicken Lady, meet Couch Lady? Does Tea Party fave Sharron Angle have a Scientology problem? It looks like Angle scrubbed a passage from her campaign website about how she, along with actresses Kelly Preston and Jenna Elfman, lobbied John Ensign to sponsor legislation prohibiting school employees from requiring students to take psychotropic drugs. Preston and Elfman are noted Scientologists, and psychotropic drugs are considered to be anathema to that, uh, belief system. Another curious nugget is Sue Lowden’s attacks on Angle for “her support in 2003 of a drug-treatment program for inmates that included saunas and massages as treatment”. It’s amazing how this race has transformed itself from one of the most depressing to one of the most amusing.

MI-Gov: Hotline OnCall sits down for an entertaining interview with Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, the populist progressive choice in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Calling himself a “FDR-Kennedy-Truman-Obama Democrat” and the candidate most in-touch with average angry voter, Bernero is blasting his opponent, House Speaker Andy Dillon, as the “Speaker of the Mess”.

SC-Gov: Dick Cheney is showing his lovable mug in South Carolina, issuing an endorsement for Rep. Gresham Barrett, who was the House equivalent of Some Dude for most of us before he announced his gubernatorial campaign. One of Barrett’s opponents, state AG Henry McMaster, used the news as an opportunity to remind voters of Barrett’s vote for the Cheney-backed TARP legislation.

AL-05: If you want the endorsement of the freakshow Minuteman Project and its founder, Jim Gilchrist, be prepared to cut a fat check to the Election Impact Group, a political firm run by a close associate of Gilchrist. Ben Smith takes a thorough look at the financial strings attached to a Gilchrist endorsement, specifically honing in Republican Mo Brooks, who lobbied for a Gilchrist endorsement but was rebuffed after he refused to hire the Impact Group. Five months later, Gilchrist endorsed turncoat Rep. Parker Griffith instead… just two weeks after Griffith paid $6500 to the Gilchrist-connected firm. Sleazy stuff, all around.

CA-11: David Harmer, a demi-hero among Republicans for his decent performance against John Garamendi in the CA-10 special election last year, says that he is “disgusted” by healthcare reform, stimulus packages, and bailouts. The only problem? Harmer previously worked for Washington Mutual, which was acquired by JPMorgan Chase, who in turn received $25 billion in TARP funds. JPMorgan Chase then sent Harmer out the door with a $160,000 bonus and severance package.

ID-01: Raul Labrador proudly boasts that he’s been called one of the “most extreme conservatives in the legislature”. I love this guy.

KS-03: The Kansas City Star hears word that physician and teabagger Milton Wolfe — a cousin of Barack Obama — may run in the Republican primary for the seat of retiring Dem Rep. Dennis Moore. If he does, he’ll certainly turn the heads of a few national media types.

SC-01: National Research Inc for the Club for Growth (5/23-24, likely voters):

Tim Scott (R): 30

Carroll “Tumpy” Campbell III (R): 10

Paul Thurmond (R): 9

Clark Parker (R): 9

Larry Kobrovsky (R): 8

W. Stovall White (R): 6

Mark Lutz (R): 4

Others: 4

(MoE: ±5.7%)

For the sake of completeness (this is Swing State Project, after all), a poll from early April that we missed showed Tumpy in the lead. The poll, commissioned by ex-Charleston County School Board member Larry Kobrovsky and taken by Victory Communications, had Tumpy with 18%, the Club for Growth-backed Scott at 16%, and Kobrovsky at 10%.

SC-05: Public Opinion Strategies for Mick Mulvaney (5/17-18, likely voters, October in parens):

John Spratt (D-inc): 43 (48)

Mick Mulvaney (R): 41 (35)

(MoE: ±5.3%)

Twitter: As of this writing, SSP is only ten followers shy of a cool 2000 on Twitter. Who will step up to push us over the top? Begging is my business.

SurveyUSA (5/23-25, likely voters, no trend lines):

Susana Martinez (R): 43

Allen Weh (R): 33

Doug Turner (R): 8

Pete Domenici, Jr. (R): 8

Janice Arnold-Jones (R): 3

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.6%)

SurveyUSA has a number of early voters in this sample (19%), and they’ve broken for Sarah Palin-endorsed Dona Ana District Attorney Susana Martinez over businessman Allen Weh by a 50-33 margin. (Another poll floating around the tubes, this one paid for by New Mexico political gossip blogger Joe Monahan, has Martinez up by 41-30 over Weh.)

But the most interesting part of this poll is its general election match-ups, which may shake up assumptions that Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish is favored in November:

Diane Denish (D): 43

Susana Martinez (R): 49

Undecided: 8

Diane Denish (D): 49

Janice Arnold-Jones (R): 35

Undecided: 16

Diane Denish (D): 46

Pete Domenici, Jr. (R): 40

Undecided: 14

Diane Denish (D): 50

Doug Turner (R): 36

Undecided: 14

Diane Denish (D): 47

Allen Weh (R): 42

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±2.7%)

I have feared for some time now that SSP’s current rating of this race, Likely Democratic, may have been too optimistic given the nature of this cycle, but the absence of any poll numbers to confirm that suspicion has made any move difficult to justify. Indeed, even Rasmussen found Denish crushing Martinez by nearly 20 points back in March, and a PPP poll from February found Denish leading her opponents by spreads varying from five points (against Domenici the younger) and 18 points (against Weh). The one parallel between PPP’s poll and this one is that Denish was in the mid-40s in all of her match-ups back in February — it’s really only Martinez’s strength that has changed the ballgame this time around. It seems possible that Martinez’s primary ad blitz is carrying over into some general election appeal.

Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons was one of the NRSC’s brightest and earliest recruits, a major coup for the committee early in the cycle. So it’s not hard to understand why the man is bit bitter after moneybags ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon decided to stroll into the race and eat his lunch. And he’s speaking out:

In an interview with the conservative National Review, the former congressman said McMahon cannot defeat state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democratic nominee:

Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R., Conn.) tells National Review Online that he does not think that Linda McMahon can win in the Nutmeg State. “No, I don’t think so at all,” he tells us. And if McMahon asks Simmons for help on the trail, he says he’ll say he is “preoccupied.”

[…] But the ex-congressman said McMahon could also face attacks on her character on the trail due to allegations of suspect activity during her tenure running the wrestling circuit.

“While she was there, they had a mentally-handicapped character, Eugene, who they thought was humorous,” he said. “I find that whole issue, and how it was handled by [McMahon], severely disappointing,” adding that she has “countless entertainment products that she’ll have to defend, especially when Democrats make them known to the public in coming months.”

Yee-ouch.

UPDATE: Now Robbie is saying that he’s sorry. Simmons: “I talked too much and I’m sorry.” Aw, c’mon, he was just getting warmed up!

Suffolk (pdf) (5/20-23, RVs, 2/21-24 in parens):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 42 (33)

Charlie Baker (R): 29 (25)

Tim Cahill (I): 14 (23)

Jill Stein (G): 8 (3)

Undecided: 7 (16)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

It may be premature to say that Patrick is “on the mend”, but when you start accumulating enough polls like this one, it’s hard not to feel that way. A recent Rasmussen poll pegged the race at 45 Patrick, 31 Baker, and 16 Cahill — not far off Suffolk’s mark at all.

You may recall that, when they last polled this race in February, Suffolk head David Paleologos hyperventilated that this was now a two-way race “between Charlie Baker and Tim Cahill”, despite the fact that Patrick was still technically leading the field by eight points. Paleologos is now smartly singing a different tune, saying that the RGA’s big media buy against Cahill has actually been more of a net positive for Patrick. In any case, three-way races like this one can end up throwing some serious curveballs, but Patrick seems to be in the strongest shape we’ve seen him in a while. His job approval has ticked up to a bad 42-49, up from a dismal 34-59 in February, and his favorable rating is up to 45-46 from 38-50. Still, his re-elects remain poor: 33-55 (up from 29-60).

• Idaho: The numbers from Idaho’s primary election last night that everyone is focused on is state Rep. Raul Labrador’s somewhat surprising victory over Vaughn Ward in ID-01, by a 48-39 margin. This means that the NRCC-preferred, Sarah Palin-endorsed candidate lost… although given the way Ward’s wheels fell off over the last few weeks, Republicans may be breathing a sigh of relief. Not that Labrador may turn out that well either, as he’s poorly-funded and apparently not a favorite of the local establishment (as he’s tight with ex-Rep. Bill Sali). Democratic freshman Rep. Walt Minnick may actually be feeling… dare I say it… confident going into November?

ID-02 had some eyebrow-raising numbers too, consistent with mediocre primary performances from establishment incumbents on both sides of the aisle in previous months; Rep. Mike Simpson — not exactly a moderate, but certainly not the flamethrower you’d expect in such a dark-red district – had an unexpectedly rough time in the GOP primary, winning against Chick Heileson only 58-24. And incumbent GOP governor Butch Otter, who’d looked dominant in polling, got a teabagging of his own, scoring only 55% while rancher Rex Rammell (the only guy around with a name even manlier than “Butch Otter”) got 25%, as apparently there was a lot of resentment on the right over Otter’s failed attempt to raise the state gas tax. Dem nominee Keith Allred has a fundraising lead over Otter and good bipartisan credentials as former head of group Common Interest; combined with Otter’s underperformance in the primary, that leaves us thinking Allred might have a legitimate shot here.

• CA-Sen: Anti-abortion group the Susan B. Anthony List (whom you might remember from their involvement in the WV-01 Dem primary) is getting involved in California, in support of Carly Fiorina. They’re spending $215K in IEs, as Fiorina opposes the pro-choice Tom Campbell in the GOP primary.

• IN-Sen: The spotlight is starting to turn back toward Dan Coats’ lobbying past, with state Democrats demanding that Coats disclose a full list of his lobbying clients. Coats (who worked for law firm King & Spaulding as a lobbyist) is citing attorney-client privilege as a reason for keeping mum, although recent court cases have made clear that the privilege doesn’t extend to lobbying activities.

• KY-Sen: No matter how pure you try to be, someone’s always going to be more pure than you: dissatisfied with Rand Paul’s sops to Republican orthodoxy, the Libertarian Party is saying that they’re planning to run a candidate against him in November. They’re accusing Paul of having deviated from the Libertarian line on social issues and foreign policy. Meanwhile, the Paul camp’s emergency retooling continues apace; he’s hired Jesse Benton as his new campaign manager (to replace David Adams, who was the behind-the-scenes equivalent of Some Dude). Benton’s not a GOP establishment figure, though; he was the communications director for the 2008 Ron Paul presidential campaign.

• NV-Sen: The feathers are flying in the Nevada GOP primary, where the Club for Growth is taking aim at the very large target on Sue Lowden’s back, hitting her for voting to raise taxes while in the state Senate and her previous support for Harry Reid. The CfG, of course, endorsed opponent Sharron Angle last week.

• CA-Gov: MoveOn co-founder Peter Schurman apparently got tired of polling at 1% in the Democratic primary, and ended his recently-launched bid against Jerry Brown. Seeming satisfied that Brown has been stepping up his game lately, he threw his backing to Brown.

• FL-Gov: It’s looking like insiders are realizing that Bill McCollum screwed up by letting wealthy health care magnate Rick Scott run rampant on their airwaves for the last month, letting him get a major foothold in the GOP primary. Now rumors suggest that an unnamed independent group is about to start a major advertising blitz on McCollum’s behalf, to try and level the playing field.

• NV-Gov:  The most recent batch of polls have shown incumbent GOP governor Jim Gibbons down but not out in the Republican primary. But with the primary only a few weeks away, this new poll from the RGA by POS looks like Gibbons is in too deep a hole to dig out of: Brian Sandoval is at 50, with Gibbons at 27 and Mike Montandon at 11.

• NY-Gov: It’s convention time in New York, and now that Andrew Cuomo isn’t playing coy any more, his first order of business is picking a running mate. He’s chosen Rochester mayor Robert Duffy for the position. Duffy will still need to win his own primary, though, before getting joined to the ticket (a la Scott Lee Cohen in Illinois). Cuomo also got welcome news from the Independence Party: he’ll be getting that centrist third party’s line on the ballot in November. (The IP backed Eliot Spitzer last time, but rich weirdo Tom Golisano three times before that.)

• OH-01: In the War of the Steves, Republican ex-Rep. Steve Chabot is out with a poll giving himself a substantial lead over freshman Democratic Rep. Steve Driehaus. The poll by POS gives Chabot a 53-39 lead. That’s actually a smaller Chabot lead than that notorious Firedoglake poll from January, but regardless, Driehaus is going to need huge African-American turnout in Cincinnati if he’s going to pull this out.

• OH-16: If that wasn’t enough, there’s also a Republican poll of the 16th giving a significant lead to Jim Renacci, who has a 47-35 lead over fellow Democratic freshman Rep. John Boccieri. The press release touts this as an independent poll, but it was conducted by Republican pollster Fabrizio, McClaughlin, & Associates, and it was paid for by the innocuous-sounding U.S. Citizens Association who, if you go to their website, have a major ax to grind over health care reform (for which Boccieri was a ‘no’ to ‘yes’ vote).

• TN-06: Illegal immigration isn’t the kind of issue you’d expect to take center stage in rural Tennessee, but in the race to succeed retiring Bart Gordon, the two main GOP contestants are trying to outflank each other to the right on the issue. State Sen. Jim Tracy is accusing state Sen. Diane Black of trying to water down legislation requiring local authorities to report the arrest of illegal immigrants to ICE.

• Polltopia: Jonathan Chait joins the chorus of Rasmussen doubters, pointing nicely to Rasmussen’s role in the cycle of right-wing epistemic closure. Nate Silver also an interesting tidbit that promises to be part of a forthcoming larger revamping of his pollster ratings, one that seems likely not to see Rasmussen in as positive a light as his previous ratings: he finds that while Rasmussen was OK in 2004 and 2006,  its performance in 2000 was way off, as they missed seven states, with a Republican bias of 3.5%.

Well, for the most part, that is.

Public Policy Polling (5/22-23, South Carolina voters):

Jim Rex (D): 36

Gresham Barrett (R): 38

Undecided: 25

Vincent Sheheen (D): 33

Gresham Barrett (R): 43

Undecided: 25

Jim Rex (D): 40

Andre Bauer (R): 38

Undecided: 22

Vincent Sheheen (D): 38

Andre Bauer (R): 38

Undecided: 23

Jim Rex (D): 36

Nikki Haley (R): 45

Undecided: 19

Vincent Sheheen (D): 34

Nikki Haley (R): 44

Undecided: 22

Jim Rex (D): 36

Henry McMaster (R): 42

Undecided: 22

Vincent Sheheen (D): 36

Henry McMaster (R): 43

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Of course, the Fort McHenry-sized red flag here is that this poll was taken before the maybe-dubious revelations that state Rep. Nikki Haley, the Republican front-runner, was involved in an “inappropriate physical relationship” with an ex-Sanford aide. Who knows what kind of havoc that’s wreaking on this race, but hopefully we’ll see some kind of follow up in advance of the state’s June 8th primary. (Though keep in mind that South Carolina is a runoff state.)

More, from Jensen:

The Democratic candidates may have some room to grow. Right now neither of them is as well known as any of the Republican contenders. 67% of voters don’t know enough about Sheheen to have formed an opinion and despite a term in statewide office 62% are ambivalent toward Rex as well. The eventual nominee’s name recognition will obviously pick up by the fall and that could provide an opportunity to pick up more support.

Still, Barrett and McMaster aren’t that all well-known, either. Other than Haley, the best bet for Dems has got to be frat boy Lt. Governor Andre Bauer, whose reputation is notoriously bad in insider circles, and who nearly lost his race in 2006.

Meanwhile, here’s what the primaries looked like over the weekend:

Vincent Sheheen (D): 36

Jim Rex (D): 30

Robert Ford (D): 11

Undecided: 23

(MoE: ±4.8%)

Nikki Haley (R): 39

Henry McMaster (R): 18

Gresham Barrett (R): 16

Andre Bauer (R): 13

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±3.9%)

It’s interesting to see Sheeheen, a state senator, perform so well against the only statewide elected Democrat in the race, state School Superintendent Jim Rex. As for the Republican primary… well, who knows.

Bummer:

Vito Fossella, who’s set to hold a news conference outside his office at 1:30 p.m., has started dialing top state Republicans in New York to tell them he’s not going to accept the GOP nomination for his old NY-13 seat, according to sources familiar with the calls.

I guess his families weren’t thrilled with the idea.

UPDATE: Some more detail, from his presser:

In an announcement outside his Manhattan office, the Republican said he decided against taking another shot at Washington after weighing his options.

“I’m where I need to be, where I want to be” Fossella said, adding that he’s “honored and humbled” that he was endorsed by Republican officials.”As a result… I will not seek election to congress this year.”

Fossella, in a surprise decision, was endorsed last Thursday by the Staten Island GOP executive committee to run a primary in September. He said he did not request the endorsement and said he doesn’t know if he’ll support any of the other candidates in the race.

It looks like we won’t have NY-13 to kick around anymore as the nation’s craziest race. Oh well.

It’s been clear for a few days now that Dino Rossi was ready to run for Senate, and, as expected, today was the official launch day:

In a five-minute video posted to his web site, www.dinorossi.com, Rossi reaches out to voters upset with the direction the country is headed, citing rising unemployment, plummeting housing values, “wasteful” stimulus plans and “massive new debt as far as the eye can see.”

In language straight out of Ronald Reagan’s playbook, Rossi says “America’s best days” lie ahead if we “unleash the power of the people” and restore government to its “proper, more limited role….”

Rossi says he’d start by “replacing the Pelosi-Reid health care bill with something that will actually reduce costs and increase access,” though he gave no specifics.

Before facing off against Patty Murray, though, Rossi needs to survive the state’s top-two primary. State Sen. Don Benton was considered the more-or-less establishment frontrunner before Rossi’s entry; he’s a friend of Rossi and is likely to share the same pool of votes and donors, so he may be ready to bail out. Rossi’s bigger problem is likelier to be Clint Didier, who has been explicitly courting the Tea Party vote (which doesn’t have much goodwill left for Rossi… and whom Rossi doesn’t seem too interested in, as he spent last Friday hinting about his plans not with them but rather in front of the Mainstream Republicans of Washington) and who has a freshly-minted Sarah Palin endorsement.

With many polls giving Murray a lead in the single digits over Rossi, Swing State Project is moving this race to “Lean Democratic” from our list of Races to Watch.