Crazily, though, ten-term GOP Rep. Spencer Bachus is also airing ads in advance of his primary in AL-06, some $70K worth. Bachus has spent an amazing $680K on his campaign so far, even though his challenger, teabagger Stan Cooke, has raised just $29K total. This is the reddest district in the nation according to Cook PVI (R+29), which may explain Bachus’s anxiety, since he is the ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee and voted in favor of the bailout.
Month: May 2010
ID-01 Results Thread
2:46am: Ada County is now all in, and it was a landslide for Labrador: 58-35. With that, SSP is calling it a night! Overall, Labrador has a 48-39 lead on Ward with 426 of 462 precincts reporting.
2:34am: Kootenai, the last best hope of mankind Ward, is now all in, closing the gap to 45.5-40.2 for Raul, but the margin is still 3400 votes with 378 precincts in. This thing rests on Boise, but the indications are that that’s Labrador country.
2:30am: If anyone is mopey about Vaughn Ward losing tonight, just remember these words: Raul Labrador is Bill Sali’s BFF.
2:27am: But that doesn’t mean we’ll stop updating! We’re now at 369/462 (using our corrected math that the AP has yet to notice) and Labrador still has a solid 3400 vote lead.
2:20am: SSP is going to call this baby for Raul Labrador, with our model showing him headed for a 47-40 victory over Vaughn Ward. (jeffmd)
2:11am: We actually think there’s a glitch on the AP’s back end (and our own). Ada county is actually reporting 64 precincts total — that is, for both ID-01 and ID-02. The actual number of Ada precincts that have reported in ID-01 is between 32 and 34 right now. This shouldn’t affect the final result, though, as Labrador is currently beating Ward by a wide margin there. So this brings us down to 348 precincts overall and a 46-40 edge for Labrador.
1:51am: We’re up to 371 precincts, and Labrador leads by 46-40 (or about 3400 votes). Labrador looks good to win this thing — and while I know that may seem disappointing to fans of Vaughn Ward’s idiocy, I have a hunch that this Bill Sali-grade Republican is gonna turn out to be a pretty fun guy to run against, too.
1:41am: I spoke too soon! Our sheet is now up to 332/462. Still a 46-40 Raul lead, though.
1:40am: Oops, the AP has leap-frogged us. Their count, at 325/462, has Labrador up by 46-40. We’ll update our sheet again soon.
1:26am: Check out GOP incumbent Mike Simpson’s sucky showing in ID-02. He’s surviving his required teabagging, but only has 57% of the vote with about three quarters reporting.
1:20am: Finally, some daylight. 286/462 now in, and Labrador leads by 47-40.
1:17am: Check it out, Swingnuts. We’ve now added a “projection” column on our spreadsheet — based on the votes we’re seeing so far, we currently project that Raul Labrador will win this sumbitch by 3255 votes.
1:12am: Oh whoa, we’re halfway there! 235/462 now in, and Raul leads by 4% (or about 1600 votes).
1:09am: 225/462 in (check out our spreadsheet, we’re faster than the AP!), and Labrador is up by just under 1500 votes.
1:04am: 214/462 now, and it’s 45-41 for the Lab.
12:59am: 195/462 now, and Raul leads by 44-41.
12:57am: If you want to see our results spreadsheet in action, click here. We’ll be keeping it updated!
12:51am: 168/462 now, and hey, movement! 45-41 for Labrador, who’s continuing to do well in the Southern part of the district. (jeffmd)
12:47am: 156 precincts in, and, guess what!!!! Still 44-42 for Raul.
12:41am: Pass the dutchie pon’ the lef’ ‘and side. 139 precincts in, and Raul still leads by 44-42.
12:36am: 132 precincts now, and Labrador still has a 44-42 lead. The biggest wildcard left seems to be Kootenai county, where Ward crushed among absentees. He’ll need to do well in the election day vote there to have a shot at winning this.
12:26am: 113 precincts plus the absentees gets us back to a 44-42 Labrador lead.
12:21am: 107 precincts and our assortment of absentees gives Labrador a 43-vote lead out of 21,000 votes counted so far.
12:18am: With 91 precincts and a grab-bag of absentees, Ward has pulled into a 43-43 tie with Labrador.
12:14am: We’re now at 81 precincts plus assorted absentees, and Labrador is still leading by 43-42. Geographically, Labrador is doing well in the north. Ward’s doing better in the south.
12:09am: The AP has also called the GOP gube nod for incumbent Butch Otter, who only has 55% of the vote so far. Not impressive at all!
12:07am: With 74 precincts in, plus absentee ballots from Ada and Kootenai counties, Labrador leads Ward by 44-43.
12:01am: And over in ID-02, the AP has called the race for GOP Rep. Mike Simpson. I’ll be interested to see his final margin, though.
12:00am: With 67 of 462 precincts reporting (plus Ada absentees), Raul Labrador now has a 47-41 lead on Vaughn Ward.
11:49pm: SSP’s latest count: With 36 precincts reporting (plus Ada), Labrador leads by 45-42.
11:40pm: Uh, for anyone anxiously waiting for more results out of Ada, check out what their website says: “As in previous years, it is our goal to update our Web results at least once every hour-and-a-half. More frequent Web updates would cause further delays in the counting process, since all counting machines must stop counting in order for us to update results.” Jeez Louise.
11:34pm: Now we’re at 15 precincts (plus Ada), giving Labrador a 46-42 lead. Simpson leads Heileson by 58-26.
11:30pm: The SSP bean-counters now have the race at 45-42 for Labrador. This count includes 10 precincts district-wide plus the Ada County absentees.
11:24pm: The AP has called the Democratic gubernatorial nomination for Keith Allred!
11:22pm: Keep an eye on ID-02, where GOP Rep. Mike Simpson is leading John Birch Society member M.C. Chick Heileson by 57-26 so far after adding up the nums from all sources.
11:14pm: Adding everything up from all sources (unfortunately, no one source has all the reported results just yet), Raul is up by 46-42 on Ward.
11:07pm: Alright, we have our first results. Check out the Ada County link at the bottom — Labrador leads Ward by 1,824 to 1,551 votes there. (These are the absentee ballots.)
10:53pm: We should get our first taste of results some time after polls close in the Pacific Time area of the state (in seven minutes), so hang tight. The key counties to watch are Kootenai (Couer d’Alene), Ada (Boise) and Canyon (Nampa).
Most polls in Idaho close at 8 pm Mountain time (10 Eastern), with some closing at 8 pm Pacific (11 Eastern). We’re a little early for liveblogging, but we may as well get the results thread up now so that you can crack open a sixer and share your predictions in the comments. Also, if you have any additional results links, please post ’em in the comments.
RESULTS: SSP Master Doc | Associated Press | ID SoS | Ada County | Canyon County | Kootenai County | Other counties
SSP Daily Digest: 5/25 (Afternoon Edition)
• Idaho: The only state holding primaries tonight is Idaho, where the only race that’s captivating is the Republican primary in ID-01 between Vaughn Ward and state Rep. Raul Labrador. Ward has quickly turned into one of this cycle’s SSP favorites, parlaying early establishment backing and financial advantages into a dead heat with the teabaggish Labrador through repeat instances of plagiarism and general cluelessness. In fact, the latest incident came just today, when Idaho’s senior senator Mike Crapo asked Ward to clarify an inaccurate e-mail that implied Ward had Crapo’s endorsement. In a Mason-Dixon poll from several days ago, Ward led Labrador 31-28. Politico has some extra background on the race today, focusing on the bizarre intramural rivalries within the Tea Party movement, as local Labrador-backing teabaggers have split off into the Tea Party People’s Front and the People’s Front of Tea Party over the national Tea Party Express’s backing of Ward.
The Republican primary in the Governor’s race is also tonight, with incumbent Butch Otter facing challenges from wacko businessman Rex Rammell (whom you may remember from the 2008 Senate race, where he ran as an independent) and Ada Co. Commissioner Sharon Ullman. Otter, who was a libertarian-leaning House member prior to being Governor, hasn’t really drawn the wrath of the Tea Party though, and is polling well; the same Mason-Dixon poll finds him at 60%, with no opponent over 6%. Most polls in Idaho close at 8 pm Mountain time (10 Eastern), with some closing at 8 pm Pacific (11 Eastern).
• AR-Sen: The AFSCME is up with an $855K ad buy with a negative ad throwing the kitchen sink at Blanche Lincoln, even making fun of her absentee ballot screwup on Election Day. In Arkansas’s cheap media markets, that’s enough to keep the ads running all the way through the runoff.
• CA-Sen: While we at SSP are pleased and even a little honored that political insiders seem to be not only reading us but actually taking seriously things that we say, we also realize that they might not be familiar with all internet conventions. SSP allows (and encourages) user diaries. What is said in these diaries is not reflective of the opinions of the site’s editors. So, for instance, if a user diary says that CA-Sen is a “Tossup,” that does not mean that Swing State Project is calling CA-Sen a “Tossup,” which is precisely what the Carly Fiorina campaign was busy tweeting today.
• NC-Sen: If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em. Third-place Democratic primary finisher Kenneth Lewis has signed on as campaign chair for Elaine Marshall. Marshall faces a runoff against Cal Cunningham, who got a good endorsement of his own yesterday, from Jim Neal (who you might remember lost the 2008 Senate primary after running to Kay Hagan’s left).
• WI-Sen: You see allegations of this kind of thing in small-ball state legislative contests a lot, but usually when you get up to the U.S. Senate level, you have your staffers do this kind of thing. Well, I guess Ron Johnson is a man of the people, willing to go out there and get his own hands dirty tearing down his opponents’ signs (as seen on this video).
• AL-Gov: Artur Davis is out with a last-minute hit on Ron Sparks, throwing around “corruption” in reference to the thorny issue (in Alabama) of gambling. Usually campaigns like to close on a happy note; is Davis worried about a last-minute Sparks surge?
• MN-Gov: With Margaret Anderson Kelliher having announced a running mate pick, the other two guys in the Democratic primary have now, too. Mark Dayton picked state Sen. Yvonne Prettner Solon. She represents Duluth, an important but oft-overlooked Democratic stronghold in the state’s north. Matt Entenza seems to be going for star power rather than geographical balance, though, reportedly asking retiring news anchorwoman Robyne Robinson.
• CA-36: Looks like the Democratic primary between Rep. Jane Harman and activist Marcy Winograd is getting nationalized. Democracy for America (the descendant of the Dean campaign) is endorsing Winograd over the centrist Harman in this D+12 district.
• HI-01: A day after sounding noncommital about running in the regularly-scheduled primary in the 1st after finishing a surprising 3rd in the jungle-style special election, Ed Case is now confirming that he will keep running. Case has challenge Colleen Hanabusa to jointly commission a poll on who’s more competitive against Charles Djou (who was sworn in today, by the way) and the loser would drop out. Um, maybe the time to do that would be before the weird special election, not before the conventional primary where Hanabusa’s probably the favorite.
• OH-18: State Sen. Bob Gibbs and ex-state Agriculture Director Fred Dailey will have to wait a while longer for a conclusion to their super-close GOP primary, as SoS Jennifer Brunner ordered a recount. Gibbs finished ahead of Dailey by 156 votes, out of 52,700 (so it falls within the half a percentage point margin where an automatic recount is ordered by state law).
• VA-02: The GOP primary in the 2nd seems to be following a familiar pattern this cycle: the establishment candidate wins with a plurality after the Tea Partiers and assorted other hard-right constituencies can’t unite behind any one standard-bearer. A POS internal poll from wealthy auto dealer Scott Rigell (who has a bipartisan contibution record that must be dismaying to the local teabaggery) has Rigell way in the lead at 47, followed by 10 for Bert Mizusawa, 9 for Scott Taylor, 6 for Ben Loyola, and 1 each for Ed Maulbeck and Jessica Sandlin. Virginia’s primary is on June 8, but remember that, unlike most Southern states, they don’t employ runoffs.
• WI-07: EMILY’s List is getting involved in the open seat race in the 7th, now that state Sen. Julie Lassa has the Democratic field to herself. Their endorsement give her access to a nationwide donor base.
• Nevada: Democrats in Nevada have been able to point to a steadily increasing registration advantage over the last few years, but that petered out in the state’s newest release of numbers. The GOP increased its share, not by gaining more new registrations than the Dems, but by losing fewer registrations! Dems lost 42K since January, the GOP lost 20K, and nonpartisans went down 13K. I doubt people are burning their registration cards in a fit of pique, which instead suggests that there’s a lot of migration out of Nevada this year as it’s particularly hard hit by unemployment and foreclosures.
• Redistricting: Here’s some bipartisanship you can believe in: GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart and Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown — both beneficiaries of minority-majority districts, including an ugly gerrymandered one in Brown’s case — joined together to sue to stop the Fair Districts initiative that will be on Florida’s ballot in November.
Pennsylvania Redistricting: Democrats in the Driver’s Seat
After Mark Critz narrowly held on to PA-12 for the Democrats I began considering redistricting plans. Right now I expect Democrats to narrowly hold on to the State House of Representatives, and I see the Governor’s race as no worse than a toss up, with, in my opinion, Onorato having the advantage over Corbett, due to simple geography. Corbett has only barely won two tight races against second tier candidates before, while this time he’s up from against a candidate with a strong base in Southwestern Pennsylvania. No Republican can win statewide in PA anymore without holding Democrats to a very narrow margin in the SW corner of the state. Corbett is floating along in the Philly suburbs right now based on nothing more than name recognition, and the liberal lean of those areas will eventually bite him once Onorato gets his message out and points out how out of line Corbett’s views are with this blue state, (he joined the campaign to challenge the new health care laws for Christ’s sake).
So, assuming Democrats held those two areas I would figure Republicans in the Senate would pretty much have to acquiesce, I know in Indiana that however holds two of the three is able to control redistricting.
What I decided to do was mainly incumbent protection.
That is what I did to the Southeast corner of the state. First off I kept Reps Brady and Fattah in basically the same district. I might have made Fattah’s a few percentage points more black, and Brady’s a few percentage points more white.
Unfortunately there are no PA partisan numbers available yet for Dave’s Redistricting App, so I was largely left to guesswork. But my intentions were to help Patrick Murphy. He gets all of Bucks County, and the remaining population requirements are filled by a small, (and hopefully heavily Democratic), tendril of southern Montgomery County and northeastern Philadelphia.
I was fed up with the jumbled look Montgomery County had, so I cleared up the boundaries of PA-04 and PA-06, (Schwartz’s and Gerlach’s districts). PA-04 should be basically the same, partisan leanings wise, while PA-06 might have inadvertently gotten more Republican, though I did my best to change that by taking in the cities of Reading and Lancaster proper with two narrow tendrils. Both those urban areas have a fairly strong Democratic lean, (I can assume), and add a significant minority population to the district, (mostly Hispanic). So hopefully it’s current Democratic leanings, 58-41 Obama, are preserved.
CD-17 and CD-18 are basically preserved as districts that gave McCain double digit wins, or something close to that.
Now for two of the districts that I have calculated, as best I can, the new Presidential numbers.
First is the new PA-07, built for savvy Rep Tim Holden who defeated George Gekas in the biggest upset of 2002. I decided to give him a Democratic leaning swing district by taking Dauphin County, (where he seems to have established quite nice base and political machine the past decade), his home area of Pottsville in Schuylkill County, and Allentown/Lehigh County.
The result is, as carefully as I can measure it:
New District: Obama: 55%, McCain: 45%
Old District: Obama: 48%, McCain 51%
However there is a minor flaw in those numbers, which is that I simply had to figure out how much population of this district was in Schuylkill, then find what percentage of the county’s total population that was, and, making turnout and voting patterns even, take that percentage of the total votes cast in the district to get numbers for the new PA-07’s portion of Schuylkill.
I know Charlie Dent is from Allentown. It is irrelevant. I’m being aggressive here. One I expect him to lose this time around, and two, even if he doesn’t I don’t think he can beat a savvy, moderate Dem like Holden in this district. Not only did Obama win it by double digits, (and will be on the ballot again in 2012), but all the Republican areas that he needs to win are Holden’s base and are places he’s never represented before. Dent has never impressed me with his political skills, and in a difficult campaign, during a Presidential year, against a savvy, moderate Dem like Holden, I don’t think he could even win Lehigh County, (his base). Thus one Republican in the PA map is gotten rid of, and a more reliably Democratic seat is created along the edge of Central Pennsylvania.
The next one I want to discuss is a district that I made for John Callahan/Paul Kanjorski. I expect Kanjorski to lose at the moment, and Callahan to win, so this district is technically more tailored to Callahan and intended to retire Kanjorski if he somehow survives yet again.
Here the political numbers for this new PA-08:
New District: Obama: 56%, McCain: 44% w/o Luzerne County. Estimate 55.5% Obama.
Old District: Obama: 57%, McCain: 42%
And I admit the Luzerne numbers are a complete guess. I just assumed Hazelton was more conservative, and thus put areas I guess to be closer to 55% Obama in this district to keep up the Democratic lean. I think it would be difficult for this district to be won by a Republican.
Now my wider map looks like this:
The new PA-09 is my proudest creation on this entire map. I secured a Republican area, pushing it over into the realm of Democratic leaning swing district, and tailor made it for Chris Carney to defeat another Republican in the state’s delegation, Lou Barletta, who I expect to win.
New District: Obama: 52.7%, McCain: 47.3% w/o Luzerne County, I estimate that it’s 51-48 Obama.
Old District: 54% McCain, 45% Obama
Again those estimates are largely geographical guesstimates based on the overall political leanings of Luzerne County. Still Barletta has his work cut out for him. Most of the district would be new to him, and he’d be left only with with his Hazeltown base. It keeps Scranton, which is bad news for Barletta because it really singlehandedly kept Kanjorski in office this last cycle. Even worse is that Carney has dominated the outer, more conservative areas of Lackawanna County, and I can only imagine what he’ll do with the entire County.
It’s again a Tim Holden like case, on paper the Republican seems to have a chance, but the problem is all the Republican/swingish to conservative areas he needs to win are not his turf, but the Democrats. Carney has won Wayne and Pike in the past, and has a political base in Susquehanna County, and has also won Columbia. It’s another case where I can’t see the Republican managing to steal these new voters away from their Representative of more than half a decade.
Next I made an effort to help Kathy Dahlkemper. This is also one of my proud, thinking outside of the box moments. Whereas her old district went for McCain by a few hundred votes, her new district looks like this:
New District: Obama: 53.8%, McCain: 46.2%
Old District: McCain 49%, Obama: 49%
A full four point shift. It remains an Erie based district, and it extends outward into more conservative areas like Crawford and Warren that she would likely need to win, but I also went out into rural central Pennsylvania, adding Elkhart County, which is a traditional, old school Democratic county, (it even went for McGovern in 1972), and more importantly Democratic trending Centre County, which gave her a big boost.
Not having political data of course completely ended any attempts for me to do what I needed to in the Southwest corner. My intentions are quite simple; no matter how ugly it looks I wanted to split up Doyle’s 70% Obama Pittsburgh based district and create three 55% Obama districts in order to hold that area down for Democrats for another decade. Mark Critz probably got the best deal, getting the southern half of Cambria County, including Johnstown, while losing the outer and more Republican areas to Murphy, and then getting a large swath of black neighborhoods in north Pittsburgh, while Doyle gets a Washington-Fayette-Green based district along with southeast Allegheny and a good sized portion of Pittsburgh, including his base.
Meanwhile CD’s 15, 16 and 11 are all made 60+ percent McCain districts that Democrats have no shot at ever competing in.
As a whole I think this is a damn good map, and it tackles ever weak spot or want of Democrats in PA while also aggressively taking out a pair of Eastern PA Republicans.
CT-Sen: Simmons Drops Out
Remember when ex-Rep. Rob Simmons was touted as the GOP’s Dodd-slayer? Let’s pour one on the ground for that sumbitch:
Republican Rob Simmons, the one-time frontrunner for U.S. Senate, announced this morning that he is ending his campaign after losing his party’s nomination to multimillionaire Linda McMahon.
“This is not an easy decision,” Simmons said this morning at a press conference. “This is not a happy decision. But I believe it’s the right decision.”
Simmons is releasing his campaign staff and curtailing fundraising efforts, but his name will remain on the primary ballot. He did not say whether he would endorse McMahon or vote for her in November.
“Speaking for myself and my family, however, we understand the mathematical reality of competing against an opponent with unlimited financial resources who has already invested … $16.5 million in this campaign.”
This now leaves the Republican Senate nomination in the hands of Linda McMahon and Paulist weirdo Peter Schiff, whose existence is barely remembered at all these days. I’m still pretty amazed that Simmons didn’t see the writing on the wall earlier and accepted a demotion to a CT-02 rematch against Dem Rep. Joe Courtney, but I guess we can all be glad that didn’t happen.
New U.S. Senate projection: Dems hold on, 53-47
Last January, I asserted that, despite President Obama’s floundering approval rating and even stronger discontent with Congressional Democrats, political analysts were overestimating the Republican Party’s hand in re-taking control of the U.S. Senate. I projected Democrats would lose only two seats, bringing them to 58-42 control over the body. This, of course, was prior to Sen. Scott Brown’s stunning upset over Attorney General Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts special election; a win which robbed Democrats of their Senate super majority. My suspicion was, while Democrats were hardly in the best of shape, the GOP just wasn’t fielding strong-enough candidates to actually defeat some of these fading Dem incumbents.
That is no longer the case.
While I continue to believe Republicans don’t have the candidates to re-take the Senate, I do suspect they have the strength to knock off more than just one or two incumbents. President Obama’s approval is below 50% and Harry Reid’s health care reform bill is still unpopular, months after its passage. Though I don’t believe November will be a catastrophic month for Democrats, I do think they’re in for a modest thumping, and thus, I am now projecting a Democratic hold of the Senate by a margin of only 53-47.
To explain my thinking in a more detailed fashion, it’s necessary to delve into a few specific races which have evolved in the past months. After all, what is causing much of the general ineptness among Democrats is not necessarily Obama-related, but rather stemmed from local problems regarding the candidates themselves.
Here are the five races which have most changed in ranking since my projections back in January:
California – Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) vs. fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R)
January projection: Likely Dem
Current projection: Toss-up
First off, with all due respect to my Tea Party readers, Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who typically polls double-digits behind his better-known GOP challengers, doesn’t have the slightest chance at winning the Republican nomination; hence, I’ve left him from the match-up. Even in January, Boxer looked a bit vulnerable, but nearly all polling ever since has shown a strikingly-competitive race, whether it’s against the centrist Campbell or outsider Fiorina. Boxer gets the leg-up, if solely on the basis of the state’s overwhelming Dem registration, but if Boxer starts bleeding moderate Independents and conservative Democrats, she’s in a whole heap of trouble. Plus, should the GOP nominate Fiorina, they’ve got a candidate with the ability to self-fund, hence relieving national Republicans of pumping funds into a state as expansive and expensive as California.
Delaware – Rep. Mike Castle (R) vs. New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D)
January projection: Toss-up
Current projection: Likely GOP
Just a few months back, political analysts were salivating over what looked to be one of the hottest midterm races of 2010: the popular GOP Congressman Mike Castle vs. the equally-popular Democratic Attorney General Beau Biden. Alas, Biden stunned political junkies and Delaware Democrats alike when he opted to pass on the race, all but assuring Castle a huge pick-up in a hugely-Democratic state. State Dems settled on the lesser-known Chris Coons for the nomination. On paper, Coons may seem to have an advantage with the state’s massive Democratic registration, but Castle is no ordinary GOP-er; he’s a moderate figure, beloved statewide by figures on both the left and right. Castle could surely run up a 30-35% score among members of Coons’ party, especially since the lack of a substantive primary challenge has allowed the Republican to remain in his centrist position.
Indiana – Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. fmr. Sen. Dan Coats (R)
January projection: Likely Dem
Current projection: Toss-up
After Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh dropped the mother of all bombshells with his decision not to run for re-election, Republicans quickly began to celebrate over the likelihood of picking up this conservative-leaning state. For my money, however, such a party was premature. Democrats are fielding a strong, moderate candidate here in Ellsworth, while Republicans have a less exciting recruit in fmr. Sen. Coats, who barely squeaked by in the state’s recent GOP primary. The Tea Party crowd isn’t especially keen on the uber-establishment Coats, and if they stay home, Ellsworth squeaks out a victory.
Kentucky – Attorney General Jack Conway (D) vs. eye surgeon Rand Paul (R)
January projection: Likely GOP
Current projection: Toss-up
Here’s one of the very few, if perhaps only, cases where a Democrat could pick up a GOP-held Senate seat. Though Paul practically destroyed his better-known, establishment-supported opponent in the recent Kentucky GOP primary, he’s since made a number of controversial statements, among them ones regarding the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and President Obama’s handling of the BP crisis, which all but assure Paul won’t be walking away handily in this overwhelming-conservative state. Conway is a very strong recruit for the Dems – stronger than his primary opponent, ’04 nominee Dan Mongiardo – and should perform well among Independents who don’t aspire to the Tea Party movement. For now, edge to Conway.
Louisiana – Sen. David Vitter (R) vs. Rep. Charlie Melancon (D)
January projection: Lean GOP
Current projection: Safe GOP
For about fifteen minutes, national Dems thought they’d scored a major recruit in Melancon, a relatively-popular and well-known Democratic Congressman, to compete against the seemingly-vulnerable Sen. Vitter, once embroiled in a hot infidelity scandal. Alas, recent polling has shown Vitter all but trouncing Melancon, safely removing this seat from potential Dem pick-up territory. Melancon can run as centrist and appealing a campaign as he wants, but it looks like Louisiana folks have forgiven their incumbent Senator.
Here is my complete run-down of each upcoming Senate race. In most of the “Safe Dem” and “Safe GOP” races, there are no candidates listed for the losing party. In some cases, this is because no candidates have been fielded for the nomination, and in others, there are several contenders who have about as much name recognition as me.
Safe Dem (>20% victory) :
Hawaii – Sen. Daniel Inouye > GOP nominee (?)
Maryland – Sen. Barbara Mikulski > GOP nominee (?)
New York – Sen. Charles Schumer > GOP nominee (?)
Oregon – Sen. Ron Wyden > GOP nominee (?)
Vermont – Sen. Patrick Leahy > GOP nominee (?)
Likely Dem (10-20% victory):
New York – Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand > GOP nominee (?)
Wisconsin – Sen. Russ Feingold > GOP nominee (?)
Lean Dem (5-10% victory):
Connecticut – Attorney General Richard Blumenthal > WWE CEO Linda McMahon
Washington – Sen. Patty Murray > fmr. State Sen. Dino Rossi
Toss-up:
California – Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) > fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell or fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R)
Colorado – fmr. Lt. Gov. Jane Norton or District Attorney Ken Weld (R) > Sen. Michael Bennett or fmr. House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D)
Florida – fmr. House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) > Gov. Charlie Crist (I) or Rep. Kendrick Meek (D)
Indiana – Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) > fmr. Sen. Dan Coats (R)
Kentucky – Attorney General Jack Conway (D) > eye surgeon Rand Paul (R)
Missouri – Rep. Roy Blunt (R) > Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D)
Nevada – Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, State GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden, or Attorney Danny Tarkanian (R) > Sen. Harry Reid (D)
Ohio – fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) > Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D)
Pennsylvania – fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R) > Rep. Joe Sestak (D)
Lean GOP (5-10% victory):
Illinois – Rep. Mark Kirk > State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias
New Hampshire – Attorney General Kelly Ayotte > Rep. Paul Hodes
North Carolina – Sen. Richard Burr > fmr. State Sen. Cal Cunningham or Secretary of State Elaine Marshall
Likely GOP (10-20% victory):
Arkansas – fmr. Rep. John Boozman > Sen. Blanche Lincoln or Lt. Gov. Bill Halter
Arizona – radio host JD Hayworth or Sen. John McCain > businessman Rodney Glassman
Delaware – Rep. Mike Castle > New Haven County Executive Chris Coons
Iowa – Sen. Chuck Grassley > Attorney Roxanne Conlin
Safe GOP (>20% victory):
Alabama – Sen. Richard Shelby > Dem nominee (?)
Alaska – Sen. Lisa Murkowski > Dem nominee (?)
Georgia – Sen. Johnny Isakson > Dem nominee (?)
Idaho – Sen. Mike Crapo > Dem nominee (?)
Louisiana – Sen. David Vitter > Rep. Charlie Melancon
Kansas – Rep. Jerry Moran or Rep. Todd Tihart > Dem nominee (?)
North Dakota – Gov. John Hoeven > Dem nominee (?)
Oklahoma – Sen. Tom Coburn > Dem nominee (?)
South Carolina – Sen. Jim DeMint > Dem nominee (?)
South Dakota – Sen. John Thune > Dem nominee (?)
Utah – businessman Tim Bridgewater or Attorney Mike Lee > Dem nominee (?)
FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Crist, McCollum Hold Slim Leads (And Dockery Quits)
Ipsos Public Affairs for the St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald (5/22-24, registered voters):
Charlie Crist (I): 30
Kendrick Meek (D): 15
Marco Rubio (R): 27
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±4%)
We’ve seen our share of Florida polls this cycle, but with a three-way Senate race and weirdo gazillionaires forcing themselves into the Republican gubernatorial primary and the Democratic Senatorial primary, it’s always worth it to take a look at this freak state.
Ipsos lends another piece of weight behind the evidence that suggests that Crist is beginning his independent bid for Senate with a slight lead on Rubio thanks in part to significant support from Democratic voters. Crist leads Meek by 38-33 among Democrats, while trailing Rubio by 51-26 among Republicans. Crist also manages to clean up among independents, earning 39% of their votes to only 12% for Rubio and 7% for Meek. I still have to wonder if Crist’s 26% among Republicans may represent something of a high-water mark, given that his campaign is now aggressively attempting to eat Meek’s lunch. Still, Crist will always have Meek’s presence on the ballot as a foil, and maybe that fact alone will help him retain some conservative-leaning votes that he might have otherwise lost.
Also interesting is the fact that Crist’s veto of a controversial teacher “merit pay” bill appears to be a political winner, with voters supporting Crist’s decision by a 53-29 margin. Of more immediate concern is that, by a 55-31 margin, voters want Crist to veto a bill that would require women seeking abortions to undergo ultrasounds at their own expense. That number includes a 47-40 plurality among Republicans, and a massive 72-26 spread among indies. This really looks like a no-brainer for Crist if he’s looking to score some easy moderate cred.
Meanwhile, check out the Dem primary numbers:
Kendrick Meek (D): 33
Maurice Ferre (D): 10
Jeff Greene (D): 9
Undecided: 41
(MoE: ±6.5%)
Meek at 33% is some truly weak stuff by this point.
The gube race:
Alex Sink (D): 32
Bill McCollum (R): 34
Undecided: 26
(MoE: ±4%)
After seeing McCollum lead Sink by wide-ish margins for months, I’ll take results like these. Sink manages to hold together Democrats almost as well as McCollum retains Republican support, while splitting independents down by the middle by 26-26. Not too shabby, if accurate.
Finally, we have the Republican gubernatorial primary:
Bill McCollum (R): 46
Rick Scott (R): 22
Paula Dockery (R): 3
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±6.1%)
I’d like to see chrome-domed creep Rick Scott pull even closer, but I’ll accept numbers like these for the time being. State Sen. Paula Dockery, meanwhile, has finally seen the writing on the wall, and pulled the plug on her pathetic campaign yesterday. Let’s hope she endorses Scott!
April Party Committee Fundraising Roundup
Oh, we ain’t got a barrel of money. Here are the April fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (March numbers are here):
| Committee | April Receipts | April Spent | Cash-on-Hand | CoH Change | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC | $5,140,302 | $3,906,970 | $27,276,651 | $1,233,737 | $0 |
| NRCC | $7,184,320 | $5,662,873 | $11,456,418 | $1,521,446 | $0 |
| DSCC | $3,100,000 | $3,300,000 | $17,100,000 | $100,000 | $0 |
| NRSC | $4,400,000 | $2,300,000 | $17,000,000 | $2,000,000 | $0 |
| DNC | $10,432,485 | $10,052,584 | $15,128,361 | $379,901 | $2,728,493 |
| RNC | $6,864,684 | $5,738,571 | $12,492,877 | $1,126,113 | $0 |
| Total Dem | $18,672,787 | $17,259,554 | $59,505,011 | $1,713,637 | $2,728,493 |
| Total GOP | $18,449,004 | $13,701,444 | $40,949,295 | $4,647,559 | $0 |
Our House & Senate committees got crushed last month, and now the NRSC is at parity with the DSCC. While the DNC numbers look good at first blush, they spent as much as they took in. I’m not really sure why the DNC has been burning so much lately – they spent over $9 million in March, too. I’m posting a little table of all their expense categories over $100K (which acounts for almost all of their April spending):
| Item | Expenditures |
|---|---|
| Direct Mail | $1,872,736 |
| Salaries | $1,365,960 |
| Telemarketing | $1,140,580 |
| Payroll Taxes | $571,075 |
| Catering, Food & Beverage | $520,613 |
| Online Store Merchandise | $494,304 |
| Contributions to Dem Parties | $487,762 |
| Voter File Updates and Maintenance | $426,596 |
| Transfer – Joint Fundraising | $399,469 |
| Technology Consulting | $331,966 |
| Loan Repayment | $277,778 |
| Polling Expenses | $267,933 |
| Benefits Cost | $245,231 |
| Internet Advertising | $226,564 |
| Travel | $216,921 |
| Data Services Subscription | $189,510 |
| Bank Charges | $173,673 |
| Rent | $167,998 |
| Phone | $132,958 |
| Postage & Shipping | $106,355 |
| Computer Equipment | $105,042 |
SSP Daily Digest: 5/25 (Morning Edition)
NC-08: Tim-diana Jones & the Raiders of the Lost Snark
This is El Bulli-level cat fud:
Republican Party leaders have escalated an unprecedented campaign against one of their own congressional candidates, with N.C. GOP chairman Tom Fetzer calling Tim D’Annunzio “unfit for public office at any level.”
Just get a load of this fucking guy:
Court documents portray D’Annunzio as “a self-described religious zealot” who once called the U.S. government the Antichrist and told his ex-wife that he’d found the Ark of the Covenant.
The records are part of a contentious child-custody case, which included a 1995 psychiatric evaluation. The attending doctor said he couldn’t say for sure that D’Annunzio suffered from any emotional disorders.
However, Dr. Rodolfo de los Santos Ongjoco wrote that D’Annunzio told him he once entered a drug program for heroin dependence and was jailed three times for offenses including burglary and assaulting a police officer.
D’Annunzio’s blaming the NRCC for putting out this hit-job, but you really gotta read the article for the full flavor. Just one more little taste, this time from the AP:
In Hoke County divorce records, his wife said in 1995 that D’Annunzio had claimed to be the Messiah, had traveled to New Jersey to raise his stepfather from the dead, believed God would drop a 1,000-mile high pyramid as the New Jerusalem on Greenland and found the Ark of the Covenant in Arizona. A doctor’s evaluation the following month said D’Annunzio used marijuana almost daily, had been living with another woman for several months, had once been in drug treatment for heroin dependence and was jailed a couple times as a teenager.
That pyramid stuff is some crazy-ass G.I. Joe shit. Please win, you magnificent bastard!