Tag: AL-06

There are a few scenarios which could give rise to this map. If control of redistricting is split, then I could see this as a compromise map. As you'll soon see, Mike Rogers' life gets easier while the Second District becomes solidly Democratic (albeit with Bobby Bright is serious trouble in the primary, assuming he's still around).

 Even if Democrats have the redistricting trifecta, the fact that only one of the state's seven districts can be counted on to go Democratic and only one another saw Obama get more than 40% of the vote has got to be worrisome. So, a map such as this can also be seen as a Democratic gerrymander of sorts in that it makes two solidly Democratic districts.

I could even see this as a Republican map, especially if Bobby Bright survives. If that happens, they could concede the Second in return for shoring up their most vulnerable member: Mike Rogers.

Finally, this map could result from a decision by the courts or the Justice Department mandating that Alabama have another black-majority district. 2005 Census estimates put Alabama at 26.7% black. That amounts to just under two districts, and considering that adding another majority black district to Alabama is fairly easy as the heavily black areas tend to be clustered or at least fairly close to each other.

 

First District (Blue)
Old District: 67.8% white | 28% black
Old Demographics: 82% white | 13% black
New Demographics: 81% white | 13% black

The First exchanges heavily black areas in Mobile for rural, white areas along the Florida border. The net result is a significantly whiter and probably more Republican district, as if Jo Bonner needed it.  

Second District (Green)
Old District: 67% white | 29% black
Old Demographics: 44% white | 53% black
New Demographics: 41% white | 55% black

Previous attempts to move the black areas of Mobile to the Seventh District and move extra black areas from the Seventh to the Second were unsuccessful as it left the First and Second underpopulated with nowhere to gain that wouldn’t negate the whole purpose. But moving this area into the Second does work. The Second also picks up heavily black areas from the Seventh and Third and loses whiter areas to the First and Third. As a result, the district is now majority black and, I would assume, pretty solidly Democratic. Bobby Bright would likely have trouble in the primary, though.

Third District (Purple)
Old District: 65% white | 32% black
Old Demographics: 74% white | 22% black
New Demographics: 73% white | 23% black

Things get easier for Mike Rogers. Not only has the district been pushed northward out of the black belt (or at least the blackest parts of it), becoming almost three-quarters white, but Rogers' Democratic opponent Josh Segall is now in the Second District.

Fourth District (Red)
Old District: 90% white | 5% black
Old Demographics: 90% white | 6% black
New Demographics: 88% white | 6% black

The Fourth remains Alabama's whitest and least diverse districts. I tried to make it a heavily rural district, which you may can see in its loss of Fort Payne and Gadsden. That effort may have been futile as I had to put Florence and parts of Tuscaloosa in the district. I would be shocked if Rob Aderholt had any problems here.

Fifth District (Yellow)
Old District: 78% white | 17% black
Old Demographics: 79% white | 15% black
New Demographics: 76% white | 16% black

With this one, I tried to make it more urban (or at least less rural) as well as concentrate the military interests in one district. The new Fifth picks of Decatur and Fort Payne, among other areas, and sheds some more rural areas.

Sixth District (Teal)
Old District: 89% white | 8% black
Old Demographics: 88% white | 8% black
New Demographics: 85% white | 10% black

With the loss of Tuscaloosa County, the Sixth loses much of its former serpentine shape. With the addition of Autauga County, the district becomes more of a Birmingham to Montgomery district.

Seventh District (Gray)
Old District: 36% white | 62% black
Old Demographics: 37% white | 60% black
New Demographics: 35% white | 61% black

Not a whole lot has changed here. It loses some of Clarke County, giving the district a more compact look, as well as parts of Pickens and Wilcox Counties. In return, it gains some Birmingham-area precincts. The story is still the same: heavily black and solidly Democratic.

Let’s do a quick round-up of the results from last night’s races.

Alabama:

• AL-Gov: Who among us would have guessed that outgoing Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks would defeat Artur Davis by a 62-38 margin for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination? Artur Davis led the money race, led in all polling, and had a primary electorate with a large number of African-Americans to persuade and mobilize. This was truly his race to lose — and he did just that, in spectacular fashion. The Birmingham News is calling it “one of the more remarkable upsets in Alabama primary history”. I guess Artur Davis’ strategy of playing for the general election at the expense of the primary by playing up his votes against the Democratic agenda in Washington turned out to be a massive dud. Makes you wonder if Davis is regretting his decision to seek re-election in 2008, and thereby putting himself in the awkward position of casting votes against Obama’s agenda and campaigning in a Democratic primary.

  For the Republicans, ex-state Sen. Bradley Byrne, who recently served as chancellor of the Alabama Community College System, bought a ticket to the runoff with 28% of the vote. Second place is still officially up in the air, with a recount likely between state Rep. Robert Bentley, who has 123,870 votes, and “Speak American!” businessman Tim James, who’s sitting on 123,662 votes. However, unless there was a tabulation error or a pile of uncounted absentees sitting somewhere, it’s hard to imagine James making up the ground he needs. Ten Commandments judge Roy Moore fizzled out with just 19% of the vote.

• AL-AG: Republicans soundly turfed state Attorney General Troy King by a 60-40 margin, favoring instead ’06 Lt. Governor candidate Luther Strange. The Democratic race appears to be headed for a runoff, with Montgomery attorney James Anderson just barely missing the 50% cut-off. Giles Perkins, a former executive director of the state Democratic Party, placed second.
• AL-Ag Comm’r: It’s a tough pill to swallow when Alabama Republicans decided to side with thugs and criminals over Dale Peterson. Peterson, who ran one of the teabagging-est campaigns in modern political history, only won 28% of the vote. Yard-sign stealer and absolute “dummy” Dorman Grace came in second with 35%, and John McMillan won 37%. The runoff just won’t be the same without Dale. (The winner will take on Democrat Glen Zorn, one of Ron Sparks’ deputies.)
• AL-02: Montgomery city councilwoman Martha Roby, the NRCC-crowned establishment favorite, will have to slug it out in a runoff against teabagging businessman Rick “The Barber” Barber. Roby won 49% of the vote to Barber’s 29%. The winner will face Democrat Bobby Bright in November.
• AL-05: What a fun race. Parker Griffith capped off one of the more embarrassing party switches in recent history with a blow-out loss to Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks by a 51-33 margin. It was such an ignominious loss that Griffith refused to speak to the media or even show up at his election night reception to thank his supporters. Brooks will face Democrat Steve Raby, a former aide to Sen. Howell Heflin, who won his nomination with 60% of the vote over Taze Shepard, the grandson of legendary Sen. John Sparkman.

  In his election night statement, Brooks excitedly gushed: “I know who our general election opponent is: (Speaker of the House) Nancy Pelosi.” That’s very much reminiscent of the PA-12 Tim Burns playbook; and maybe it’ll have more legs in a district like this one, but it’s probably an unwise course to chart given the lack of traction Republicans have gotten when adopting such framing wholesale.

• AL-06: It’s a TARP! There was little worth seeing here as GOP incumbent Spencer Bachus defeated insurgent challenger Stan Cooke by a 76-24 margin in this impossibly red district.
• AL-07: We’re looking at a runoff between securities attorney Terri Sewell, the candidate who seems closest in style to outgoing Rep. Artur Davis, and progressive Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot. Thanks to her large fundraising advantage, Sewell won the first round with 37% to Smoot’s 29%. Earl Hilliard, Jr., son of the former Representative of this district, placed third with 27%. It’s going to be a tough battle for Smoot to overcome Sewell’s vastly superior fundraising and EMILY’s List backing, but hopefully she can make something happen.

Mississippi:

• MS-01: GOP state Sen. Alan Nunnelee won the Republican nomination to face Travis Childers and his mighty ‘stache in November with 52% of the vote. Underfunded teabagger Henry Ross took 33%, while former Fox News talking head Angela McGlowan, the 12th hour pick of Sarah Palin, won only 15%. McGlowan is apparently refusing to endorse Nunnelee, calling him a RINO of the first order.
• MS-04: Republican state Rep. Steven Palazzo took 57% of the vote in his primary against businessman Joe Tegerdine. Palazzo will attempt to dislodge entrenched Democratic incumbent Gene Taylor in the fall.

New Mexico:

• NM-Gov: Republicans picked former Dona Ana DA Susana Martinez over former state party chair Allen Weh by a 51-28 margin, ensuring that New Mexico will have its first female Governor in its history. (The Democratic nominee is current Lt. Gov. Diane Denish.) The general election promises to be very competitive, as Martinez has actually exhibited some strength in recent general election polling.

In lieu of our usual morning digest, here is a roundup of all the killer primaries from outer space that we’ll be liveblogging tonight. Get your scorecards ready!

Alabama:

• AL-Gov (D): Rep. Artur Davis has led Ag. Comm’r Ron Sparks in the money race and all polling that’s been made public to date. But a lot of Alabama Democrats – and especially the black political establishment – are unhappy with Davis’s conservative voting record, especially his vote against healthcare reform. This has led to persistent rumors that Davis is “in trouble,” and Sparks (who just scored an endorsement from ex-Gov. Don Siegelman) even claimed to have an internal showing the race tied. But he declined to share so much as a one-page polling memo – and if he’s right, quite a few other pollsters are wrong. (Though Nate Silver notes that polls of Southern Democratic primaries have, in recent years, been off by wider margins than in other regions.) We’ve seen some surprising primaries on the congressional level involving reps who’ve voted against HCR, but no one has yet paid the ultimate price for it. If Davis is the first, it would be a very big deal indeed. Note that there’s no possibility of a runoff, since Davis and Sparks are the only two candidates on the ballot. (D)
• AL-Gov (R): With seven candidates in a crowded field, this race is certain to be resolved in the runoff to be held on July 13th. Bradley Byrne has been considered the front-runner and is the choice of most establishment Republicans. However, as the moderate amongst his primary foes, Byrne has come under heavy criticism as opponents question his commitment to conservative causes. Interestingly, traditional Democratic interests in the state have spent heavily against Byrne in the primary. Tim James, son of former Gov. Fob James, is likely Byrne’s strongest adversary and has gained national attention with a series of controversial ads. While Byrne and James will most likely face each other again in July, Roy Moore of Ten Commandments fame still has a chance to snag a ticket to the runoff. (T)
• AL-Ag. Comm’r (R): This is it. The big one. The eyes of the nation, and indeed, the world, will fall upon the Republican primary for Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries of Alabama. Dale Peterson, a farmer, a businessman, a cop, a Marine in Vietnam, and an usher in a movie theater one summer will be battling for the GOP nod for this most prestigious office. Little needs to be said about Peterson’s opponents, Dorman Grace and John McMillan, other than the fact that it’s clear that they don’t give a rip about Alabama! The winner of this primary will face Democrat Glen Zorn, a current assistant Agriculture Commissioner and former mayor of Florala.
• AL-AG (R): One of the most vulnerable incumbents anywhere is Alabama’s Republican Attorney General Troy King. This isn’t a clear-cut establishment vs. movement primary, though; if anything, the state’s GOP legal establishment has soured on the erratic King and is backing his challenger Luther Strange. Polls give a large edge to Strange, who counts Jeff Sessions, Richard Shelby and even Gov. Bob Riley — the man who first appointed King to the position — among his backers. (C)
• AL-02 (R): Four Republicans are on the ballot for the right to challenge frosh Dem Rep. Bobby Bright. Montgomery city councilor Martha Roby is the NRCC-crowned establishment favorite, and the only candidate in the field to raise significant money. Teabagging businessman Rick “The Barber” Barber, an owner of several “billiards facilities” in the area, is next in line, followed by State Board of Education member Stephanie Bell. If Bell ever looked like a threat to Roby, her late entry (in March) and her weak fundraising (just $26K) seem to suggest her chances of making it to a runoff are weak. Former Marine John “Beau” McKinney rounds out the field. Back in February, Bright’s campaign released an internal poll showing him in surprisingly strong shape, but it’ll be interesting to see how he fares once this race becomes engaged.
• AL-05 (D): After Ron Sparks declined to switch over from the gubernatorial race, four Democrats got into the contest here: attorney and former state Board of Education member Taze Shepard (who also happens to be the grandson of the late Sen. John Sparkman); political consultant Steve Raby, a longtime chief-of-staff to Sen. Howell Heflin (the guy who succeeded Sparkman); attorney and former Air Force JAG officer Mitchell Howie; and physicist David Maker. The race is largely between Shepard and Raby, who have hit each other with negative TV ads in recent weeks: Shepard has attacked Raby for being a “lobbyist,” while Raby fired back that Shepard mismanaged the U.S. Space & Rocket Center (home of Space Camp) during his tenure as a commissioner overseeing the center. Though Shepard leads in the money department, he’s mostly been self-financed. Meanwhile, Raby has secured a good bit of establishment backing, including an endorsement from former Rep. Ronnie Flippo, who held this seat from 1977 to 1991. An internal poll for Shepard had him up 20-14 over Raby, but with 58% undecided. A runoff seems likely here. (D)
• AL-05 (R): Democrats everywhere will be watching this race closely to see if turncoat Rep. Parker Griffith gets teabagged to death in the wake of his party switch. He faces two rivals in the primary: Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks and businessman Les Phillip. Though Phillip has raised considerably more money than Brooks, his burn rate marks him as a client/victim of BMW Direct. Consequently, most of the “true conservatives” who are unhappy with Griffith’s attempt to bogart their nomination have rallied around Brooks, who has even been the target of a Griffith attack ad – not something you usually see from an incumbent. There’s a good chance we’ll see a runoff here between these two. (D)
• AL-06 (R): Spencer Bachus isn’t what you’d normally think of as vulnerable; he’s a conservative Republican in one of the reddest districts in the nation, in Birmingham’s suburbs. However, establishment GOPers like Bachus have reason to worry this year because of the GOP’s restive base. He in particular may have a target on his back as ranking House Republican on Financial Services, and as an architect of TARP. Bachus faces teabagger Stan Cooke; leaving nothing to chance, he’s already spent $680K on his primary. (C)
• AL-07 (D): The Democratic primary in the race to replace Rep. Artur Davis is the only election which matters in this 72% Obama district. The three chief contenders are: state Rep. Earl Hilliard, Jr., the son of the guy Davis primaried out of this seat in 2002, Earl Hilliard, Sr.; Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot; and securities lawyer Terri Sewell. Hilliard and Smoot until recently had the edge in name recognition, but only Sewell, who began as an unknown, has had the money to air TV ads. While early internal polling showed this to be a race between Hilliard and Smoot, Sewell’s spending has almost certainly had an impact, and her own poll had the race a three-way tie a couple of weeks ago. A runoff seems almost certain here. (D)

Mississippi:

• MS-01 (R): For a while there, it looked like former FOX News talking head Angela McGlowan posed a threat to the NRCC’s favorite candidate in the race against twice-elected Dem Rep. Travis Childers, Tupelo-area state Sen. Alan Nunnelee. But her campaign has fizzled, bringing in only $85,000 for the primary compared to nearly $650,000 for Nunnelee. However, a Democratic 527 called “Citizens for Security and Strength” recently entered the fray, spending money on mail and robocalls against Nunnelee in the hopes of aiding Henry Ross, the teabagging former mayor of Eupora. Ross hasn’t raised much money either (just $127K), but it’ll be interesting if his outsider message (and the Dem attacks) will stick.
• MS-04 (R): In a year like this, you’ve gotta keep an eye on old dogs in deep red districts like this one. Republicans have mostly nominated driftwood against Democrat Gene Taylor in the past decade despite his district’s comically insane R+20 Cook PVI. However, it looks like Taylor will have to actually exert himself this year, as Republicans have fielded a bona fide elected official, state Rep. Steven Palazzo, to run against him. Palazzo will first have to get past businessman Joe Tegerdine, though, and the race has already gotten a bit testy, with Palazzo charging that Tegerdine works for a Chinese corporation, and Tegerdine jabbing Palazzo for being too scared and/or lazy to show up to any debates.

New Mexico:

• NM-Gov (R): The Republican field in New Mexico was left in a sort of second-tier disarray when ex-Rep. Heather Wilson decided to pass on the race. Polling shows the two main contestants here to be Susana Martinez — the Dona Ana County DA, who despite a Sarah Palin endorsement is polling competitively with certain Dem nomineee Lt. Gov. Diane Denish — and Allen Weh, the former state party chair and bit player in the US Attorneys firing scandal, who’s financing his run mostly out of pocket. Pete Domenici Jr. had been expected to be competitive but foundered after offering no rationale for his campaign other than his lineage. Janice Arnold-Jones and Doug Turner round out the field. (C)

AR-Sen: The Big Dog is coming back home to stump for Blanche Lincoln, the first time he’s done so this race. Meanwhile, the SEIU just tossed in another $100K for phonebanking and another $100K for field on behalf of Bill Halter. (There’s also an amusing negative $100K entry for “reverse phonebanking.”)

CA-Sen: Chuck DeVore is as insane as this ad. A true must-see. In news of the normal, President Obama kept to his promise to return to CA for two more Barbara Boxer fundraisers. The events raised $1.75 million, $600K of which will go to Boxer and the balance to the DSCC.

KY-Sen: Heh, that was quick. Rand Paul is already planning the dreaded “staff shakeup.” The only problem is that he can’t fire himself. Barring that, Mitch McConnell is telling his least-favorite fellow Kentuckian to shut the fuck up and hide under a rock – “for the time being.”

PA-Sen: I agree – this is a magnanimous move. Arlen Specter introduced Joe Sestak to his Senate colleagues at their weekly lunch yesterday. Very gracious.

AL-06, AL-07: Unsurprisingly, corporate lawyer Terri Sewell is the only Democrat airing TV ads in the primary to succeed Rep. Artur Davis, spending about $200K so far. With $783K, she’s far outraised her chief competitors, Earl Hilliard, Jr. ($328K) and Shelia Smoot ($100K). Sewell can also count among her contributors Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz.

Crazily, though, ten-term GOP Rep. Spencer Bachus is also airing ads in advance of his primary in AL-06, some $70K worth. Bachus has spent an amazing $680K on his campaign so far, even though his challenger, teabagger Stan Cooke, has raised just $29K total. This is the reddest district in the nation according to Cook PVI (R+29), which may explain Bachus’s anxiety, since he is the ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee and voted in favor of the bailout.

AR-01: A similar situation in AR-01 as in AR-02 below, where first-rounder David Cook endorsed the somewhat less-conservative Chad Causey over the extremely conservative Tim Wooldridge in (you might be a little surprised to hear me say this if you don’t already know the names) the Democratic runoff.

AR-02: Some runoff endorsements on both sides from the also-rans. Patrick Kennedy and John Adams (great names, huh?) both endorsed Robbie Wills in the Democratic race, while David Boling endorsed Joyce Elliott. I suspect national Dems would prefer Wills over the more-liberal Elliott, but this race is probably too touchy to get involved in.

DE-AL: Joe Biden returned home to do a fundraiser in Wilmington for John Carney. No word on whether he’ll also do one for Senate candidate Chris Coons, but it’s not like it’s a big schlep.

FL-25: The statewide Florida AFL-CIO, following the lead of its South Fla. branch, endorsed little-known longshoreman Luis Meurice in the Democratic primary, rather than Joe Garcia. The union, Florida’s biggest, backed Garcia in 2008.

IN-05: This is exactly the kind of weird that Dave Weigel specializes in. Tim Crawford, the teabagging “Democrat” who snuck to victory in the Democratic primary here, abruptly dropped out of the race after an unpleasant meeting with, you know, actual Democrats… and then wrote a long, rambly email saying he was un-dropping-out. Ah well.

IN-09: Speaking of Joe Biden, he’ll also be doing a fundraiser in late June for Rep. Baron Hill in Jeffersonville, Indiana.

NC-08: I would really freakin’ love to see Tim D’Annunzio pull this one off. The entire NC House GOP delegation just collectively endorsed former TV sportscaster Harold Johnson, terrified as they are of the spastic-fantastic Tim-diana Jones. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, click here stat.

RI-01: Scott Brown is coming to Rhode Island for a fundraiser with state Rep. John Loughlin, the GOP’s candidate in this open seat. To date, Loughlin’s raised about $344K, which might not seem too bad, but in fact he’s been running for a long time, since well before Rep. Patrick Kennedy announced his retirement.

VA-11: Businessman Keith Fimian has a new poll from McLaughlin & Associates showing him with a 36-23 lead over Fairfax Co. Supervisor Pat Herrity in the GOP primary. A March poll had Fimian up 29-17. Herrity had his own poll out last month, though, showing him with a 42-21 lead – and pointed out that Fimian claimed his internals had him just three points behind Gerry Connolly before election day 2008, but lost by twelve.

DSCC: Uh, good, I guess. The DSCC has cancelled plans to have EPA chief Lisa Jackson headline an NYC fundraiser next week – but what a retarded idea in the first place. It seems pretty inappropriate to me to have cabinet members doing hackwork like this (can you imagine Hillary Clinton or Eric Holder shilling for dollars?), but it’s even worse when you’re talking about the head of the EPA in the midst of the oil spill crisis in the Gulf. I also find it unctuous that the original invitation promised that the event would be “intimate, so each of you will have a real opportunity to get to know and to speak to Lisa about issues of concern to you and our nation.” Pretty gross when it’s our team selling access to the ultra-wealthy. Barf.

Ideology: Alan Abramowitz has a great piece up at the Democratic Strategist, looking at the correlation between ideology (as measured by DW-NOMINATE) and election performance by Republican senators. Using a modified eight-point DW-N scale, Abramowitz finds: “For every additional one point increase in conservatism, Republican incumbents lost an additional three percentage points in support relative to their party’s presidential candidate.” But shhh… don’t tell the Republicans!