Tag: VA-Gov

Hard to believe we’re seeing any Republican anywhere pining for the good ol’ Bush days, but Bob McDonnell went there:

Many of you probably remember after 9/11 we did something to stimulate the economy then, too. You know what we did? We cut taxes. President Bush put in a ten-year tax-cut on everything from the death tax to capital gains tax, and it was followed by an unprecedented period of economic recovery and economic growth. In fact, it almost overheated the economy through about 2006. So, I think that’s the way you stimulate business. And that’s the kind of governor that I’m going to be – to reduce those impediments to entrepreneurship, to let small businesses grow and thrive and create some opportunity.

Maybe tax cuts have tested well in McDonnell’s internal polling. But I refuse to believe that Bush nostalgia sells well to anyone but the most hardcore bitter-enders.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (6/15-17, likely voters, 6/1-3 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 44 (34)

Bob McDonnell (R): 45 (46)

Undecided: 11 (20)

(MoE: ±4%)

This is the second poll we’ve seen of the race since the Democratic primary concluded, and it’s more good news for Deeds (Rasmussen had Deeds up by 47-41 the day after the primary). While McDonnell will be a pretty tough candidate to beat, it’s worth repeating that, four years ago, Tim Kaine didn’t start off his race in nearly as good a position. Kaine lagged behind Republican Jerry Kilgore by mid-single digits in almost every poll prior to October before posting a beautiful finish. McDonnell will be a less embarrassing candidate strictly in terms of messaging and presentation for the GOP than Kilgore was in 2005, but the state has also become more Democratic since then. This will be a fun race to watch.

RaceTracker: VA-Gov

Creigh Deeds’s landslide in the Virginia Gubernatorial Primary on June 9th was shocking to pundits like me. This race was supposed to be a three way nail biter fought by Terry McAuliffe’s money and his big name supporters; Brian Moran who had Northern Virginia roots and Creigh Deeds carrying rural Virginia. Instead, Deeds won everywhere except in a few Hampton Roads independent cities and Alexandria. What happened in this race echoes the 1988 Democratic presidential primary: All the major candidates attacked Rep. Richard Gephardt (D, MO) leaving room for Dukakis to win. Moran attacked McAuliffe and McAuliffe attacked Moran allowing Creigh Deeds to sneak into Northern Virginia and win. Deeds must now beat Republican Bob McDonnell, the conservative Attorney General of Virginia.  It will be a rematch because in 2005, Deeds lost to McDonnell by 360 votes for Attorney General in 2005 out of the 1.9 million cast. Yes, the 2005 election looks like Florida in 2000 but it was more gracious than that. I will explain how Deeds can develop a winning strategy in light of his strengths and weaknesses.

Creigh Deeds was the most Conservative Democrat running in the Gubernatorial Primary. Even though he is pro-choice, he is also pro-gun and the NRA endorsed him in 2005. He will probably get it again. The NRA endorsement helped him in rural areas but not in Northern Virginia. Still, it would be hard to believe that a pro gun control voter in Northern Virginia would support the very conservative McDonnell over Deeds. Since Tim Kaine, the Democratic Governor of Virginia won big in Northern Virginia in 2005, the Democratic voters came out in big numbers and Deeds will need that type of turn out once again. I believe he will do that because of backlash to McDonnell’s record and because of the type of showing Deeds showed in the primary. . He also ran strong in rural areas especially in his home House of Delegates district. Against McDonnell, he won Alleghany County in his home district with 75% of the vote. Even McCain won that county against Obama. Deeds’s district is located near the Shenandoah Valley and borders West Virginia. To win rural areas, Deeds must portray himself as a candidate who stands for rural issues as he showed in the primary. Another trouble spot for Deeds is the Hampton Roads area. . Bob McDonnell, a Virginia Beach resident won it by 15 points when John McCain barely won it against Obama. The only congressional district Deeds lost in the primary was an African American majority district that contained some Hampton Roads cities. Since the Hampton Roads area provided McDonnell with the margin he needed to become Attorney General. Hampton Roads has a large military population. Deeds can pull the race close if he can tout his Veterans record. Deeds wants tax relief for disabled Veterans and is a fan of Virginia’s Wounded Warrior Program. If he fails to make inroads there, he could try to win Loudon and Prince William Counties. They surround Fairfax County and since 2001, they almost always vote for the winner.  If Deeds can paint McDonnell as an extreme religious right candidate, Deeds can win in Northern Virginia. Deeds has one problem in Northern Virginia: He is tough on illegal immigration which would help in Conservative areas but would hurt him among Hispanic voters in Northern Virginia. If Deeds can hold the voters he won in 2005, he can win because more D.C Liberals have moved into Virginia since 2005, making it easier for Deeds to win to pick up the additional votes. A recent state wide poll showed Deeds leading by six points. Was this just a post primary bounce or a harbinger for this election?

Bob McDonnell is a candidate with contrasts. Unlike Deeds, McDonnell is not a Virginia native. Even though Deeds will try hard to win Hampton Roads, McDonnell had military service while Deeds did not. Also, McDonnell’s home area is home to many evangelicals and McDonnell has close ties to Pat Robertson and that voting block. Those ties probably helped McDonnell enough in rural areas to enable him win against Deeds in 2005. Yet, those ties will hurt McDonnell in Northern Virginia where the population is generally averse to the Southern Virginia Religious Conservatives. Northern Virginia voted against then Sen. George Allen in 2006, against Jerry Kilgore who was the Republican Gubernatorial nominee in 2005. McDonnell needs to keep those ties to Pat Robertson to compete for votes in rural areas but also needs to shed them to compete in Northern Virginia. If Deeds wants to win, he needs to run ads in Northern Virginia highlighting McDonnell’s ties to Pat Robertson.

These are the main strengths, strategies and weaknesses of each candidate. Here is the winning strategy for Deeds: rack up large margins in Northern Virginia by campaigning there and running ads portraying Bob McDonnell as a religious Conservative with ties to Pat Robertson. Try to at least reduce the margins in Hampton Roads by spending time there and running ads promoting Deeds’s record on Veterans. In the rural areas, Deeds needs to run ads referring to him as “just another hardworking Virginian” and highlight his record on guns. If the NRA endorses him, he needs to run ads with their endorsement. Even though Loudon and Prince William Counties are considered the important key, I believe the key area is rural Virginia. The real bellwether county appears to be suburban Henrico County near Richmond. It has many Conservatives and African Americans. So on election night, watch not only Loudon and Prince William Counties but also Henrico County. Deeds should win the bellwether counties if he sticks to his strategy. The most important tactic he must use is just to well….be himself. He has a lovely family and a great personality. If Virginians can see that combined with his positions and record compared to McDonnell’s, they will probably vote for him.  

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{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

While 2010 will be chock-full of exciting races at all levels of government.  In 2009, though, there will be two marquee races across the country: the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey.  Republicans are favored in both races, but both races should come down to the wire, and Democrats can hold both seats – with your help.

In Virginia, Democratic State Senator Creigh Deeds won an impressive, come-from-behind victory for the nomination this past Tuesday, demonstrating a strong ground game.  The Republican nominee will be far-right-winger Bob McDonnell.  The best description for McDonnell’s brand of Republicanism is that he is a Pat Robertson disciple.  You can learn more about McDonnell at TheRealBobMcDonnell.com.  Deeds and McDonnell have tangled before, in the 2005 Virginia Attorney General race, where McDonnell barely edged Deeds by 323 votes (yes, just 323 votes – that’s not a typo with zeroes missing) out of over 1.94 million votes counted.  This race will be exceptionally close, so every single dollar contributed and every single hour spent volunteering will make a real difference.  A bit of good news is that the first poll taken after Tuesday’s primary, by Rasmussen Reports, shows Deeds with a 47-41 lead over McDonnell, but this could just be due to a primary bump.  Rasmussen’s last poll showed McDonnell leading Deeds 45-30.  Your support will help Deeds sustain his new lead.

In New Jersey, Democratic incumbent Governor Jon Corzine will square off against Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.  Christie is very much at home in the Republican Culture of Corruption.  Republican Christie has faced scandals involving no-bid contracts, abuse of the state pension system, pay-to-play, and even allegedly cutting a deal to get his younger brother’s sentence reduced after being implicated for fraudulent trading practices on Wall Street.  Despite Christie’s mountain of scandal, New Jersey’s lagging economy has hurt Governor Corzine’s poll numbers.  Recent polling gives Christie a 7 to 13 point lead over Corzine.  Research 2000, May 25-27: Christie 46, Corzine 39; Rasmussen Reports, June 4: Christie 51, Corzine 38; and, Quinnipiac, June 10: Christie 50, Corzine 40.  In other words, Christie has an edge, but the fundamentals of the race moving forward favor Governor Corzine.  As the economy gradually picks up over the coming months and voters learn more about Christie’s corrupt background, New Jersey’s blue state status will shine through and Governor Corzine should tighten the race back up.  Your support will help Governor Corzine tighten the race up even faster.

Below are the links to how you can connect with the gubernatorial campaigns (and – please – contribute anything you can to these campaigns, and spread the word!).  Republicans are expecting (and expected) to win both of these races.  However, after being upset in the NY-20 special U.S. House election and losing a U.S. Senator to a Party switch, the GOP is reeling.  Losing either (or both!) VA-Gov or/and NJ-Gov would be a major body blow and simply crush Republicans heading into the 2010 calendar year.  If Democrats across the country are able to support these Democratic campaigns, we can flush the conventional wisdom down the toilet and deliver two more embarrassments to the Rush-Newt-Cheney Republican Party and two more losses to the Michael Steele RNC.

Rasmussen (6/10, likely voters, 4/15 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 47 (30)

Bob McDonnell (R): 41 (45)

Some other candidate: 2 (5)

Not sure: 10 (20)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

That was fast! Hot off his surprisingly strong victory in Tuesday’s Democratic primary, state Senator Creigh Deeds seems to have gotten quite a post-primary bounce, pulling into a 6-point lead against AG Bob McDonnell. This is the first poll I can find where Deeds led McDonnell in a head-to-head matchup (although if you go back to December, Rasmussen found them tied at 39 apiece), and a huge improvement from the 45-30 gap in April… not coincidentally at a time in the primary when Deeds seemed to be lagging, tortoise-like, and Terry McAuliffe was sprinting ahead, hare-like.

The question is how long this will last. Obviously, there’s a lot of media visibility for Deeds right now and good buzz as well (as seen in his 59/27 favorables), thanks to his dominant statewide performance and also thanks to T-Mac’s quick and effusive endorsement. This may settle back into a tied race during the summer doldrums… or, given that Deeds seems to have already made strong inroads among NoVa voters even while doing what he was expected to do (put the rural parts of the state into play), maybe this will be the new normal. (Discussion already underway in DCCyclone‘s diary, which also contains a little more information about the crosstabs.)

I thought even before the primary that a Deeds win would get us a nice post-primary bump in general election trial heat polling, and that bump is happening a little faster than I imagined!  More below the jump.

Rasmussen has Deeds up 47-41 on the strength of Democratic unity.  McDonnell has the edge among independents, but only with a 43-36 plurality as but 16% of them are undecided.  Only 4% of Dems are undecided with Deeds picking up 89%, and Repugs have 11% undecided with 9% going to Deeds.

Another key demographic is that Deeds trails 49-36 among white voters with 12% undecided and 3% saying they’ll vote for “some other candidate,” although almost all of that 3% will end up choosing between the 2 so that the true undecided whites are 15%.  In Virginia about 40% of the white vote means a Democratic victory in a Governor’s race, so Deeds sitting at 36% with another 15% still persuadable puts him in a great position for victory.

Yes, yes, it’s early, and anything can happen, so this poll isn’t to be relied on too strongly……I’m a campaigns junkie and I know all that.

But the fact is this poll does mean something, that this race is winnable, and McDonnell no longer can be called “the frontrunner” as he was legitimately called in the pre-primary stretch.

It’s a toss-up at worst for us.

I voted for Deeds in the primary thinking he was the only one of the 3 who could beat McDonnell, and today that seems more true than ever.

Creigh’s top responsibilities for the next few weeks need to be fundraising and outreach to minority voters, especially blacks but also Hispanics and Asians.  I hope he raises the cash he needs this time, as he failed to do 4 years ago vs. McDonnell in the A.G. race.

First off, as always, thanks to everyone who participated in the Swing State Project’s VA-Gov Dem primary predictions contest. Fifty-seven folks submitted guesses, and what’s particularly awesome is that the skunkworks down at SSP Labs shows we have a flat-out tie for first place! Congratulations to RedefiningForm and stevenaxelrod, who both had winning scores of just four points – you each get half a loaf! Just kidding… send me an email and a super-mega-delicious Green’s babka will be on its way to each of you shortly.

The actual final results were Deeds 50, McAuliffe 26, Moran 24. For the record, here were the winning guesses, along with the average for all of SSP:

RedefiningForm:

Deeds: 48

McAuliffe: 26

Moran: 26

stevenaxelrod:

Deeds: 48

McAuliffe: 27

Moran: 25

SSP Median

Deeds: 41.1

McAuliffe: 31.7

Moran: 26.7

If you want to see exactly how you did, please click here. If you aren’t going to be the recipient of tasty babka, please try again next time (or treat yourself!). Thanks again to all, and congrats once more to the winners!

Well, it looks like we get to take a jenga break a bit early tonight. We thought we’d open up the floor to what surely is topic #1: how did Creigh Deeds win? And looking forward, what does he need to do to win again in the fall? Please share your thoughts in comments.

UPDATE: In some not-so-great news, it looks like Democrats have decisively lost the race to hold on to Rep. Parker Griffith’s state Senate seat in Alabama.

Polls close at 7:00pm Eastern in Virginia, and we’ll be using this thread to track the returns in the state’s hotly-contested Democratic gubernatorial primary.

RESULTS: VA SBoE | Associated Press (by county)

8:24PM: Deep Thoughts: Think T-Mac wants his $6.9 mil back? Think Brian Schweitzer wants his endorsement back? (Hey Brian, I hope you can clean the egg off your bolo tie.)

8:08PM: The AP has called this race for Deeds! Woo-hoo! What a tremendous result.

7:57PM: 1491 precincts in (close to 60% of the vote), and Deeds has 50.2% of the vote — it’s pretty clear that he’s going to be the Democratic nominee. The only question now is who’ll end up in second place: McAuliffe (currently at 26%) or Moran (24%). In the Lt. Governor’s race, Jody Wagner has the nomination locked.

7:44PM: 1001 precincts now in, and Deeds is holding onto 50.5%. Across the board, he’s pulling in an impressive share of the vote, especially in NoVA; just check out the Fairfax returns to see what I mean. Go Creigh!

7:36PM: 623 precincts in, and Deeds is looking hot: 51% to McAuliffe’s 25 and Moran’s 24. Check out the early returns in VA-10 and VA-11 — Creigh is destroying the competition so far.

7:31PM: 324 precincts in (13% of the vote) and it’s Deeds 53, T-Mac 24, and Moran 23. Check Arlington again — Deeds is over 50% there. Deeds has also taken the lead from McAuliffe in VA-04, and is leading the very early VA-11 returns.

7:23PM: 123 precincts now in, and Deeds is still in charge at 52%, but Moran has now slipped into second place at 25 (McAuliffe’s lagging at 23%). Here’s something interesting: check out Arlington County, where you might expect Moran to be performing well. But it’s Deeds who’s leading the pack there (albeit with only 2 of 52 precincts in): Deeds at 47% and Moran at 34%. So far, so good for Deeds in NoVA.

7:15PM: 61 precincts in, and it’s Deeds 55, T-Mac 23, and Moran 22. Votes are trickling in from every Congressional District in the state except for the 2nd and the 11th, and so far, Deeds is winning all of them except for the 3rd and 4th (McAuliffe) and the 8th (Moran).

7:11PM: 20 precincts in (of 2504), and Deeds leads T-Mac by 67%-18%, with Moran at 14%.

7:07PM ET: Polls are now closed, and a lone precinct is reporting 7 votes for Deeds, 4 for T-Mac. This precinct is in Southwest Virginia, so Deeds’ early strength is to be expected. If this primary follows the normal pattern of Virginia elections, vote-rich Northern VA will report last — so hold off on the champagne for now.

Alright, folks. It’s that time. List your predictions for today’s Democratic gubernatorial primary in Virginia in comments. The person with the the smallest aggregate deviation from the correct totals for each candidate just might earn a babka.