SurveyUSA (6/5-7, likely voters, 5/31-6/2 in parens):
Terry McAuliffe (D): 30 (35)
Brian Moran (D): 21 (26)
Creigh Deeds (D): 42 (29)
Other/Undecided: 7 (11)
(MoE: ±4.3%)
Looking good for Deeds. General election match-ups (registered voters):
Creigh Deeds (D): 43 (43)
Bob McDonnell (R): 47 (44)Terry McAuliffe (D): 41 (40)
Bob McDonnell (R): 48 (47)Brian Moran (D): 38 (37)
Bob McDonnell (R): 49 (48)
(MoE: ±2.4%)
Public Policy Polling is going to release their final VA-Gov survey very shortly. Tom Jensen teased us with this:
Looks like a tight race in Virginia… for second place. The undecideds seem to almost all be moving in the same direction.
I’m not going to call the race like I did the Saturday before the election for Kay Hagan based on early returns from our final poll because preferences in this race have been so fluid. But it doesn’t look like things are going to be as close on Tuesday as the polling in the last week suggested.
What do you think the numbers will look like? For reference, their prior numbers are here. We’ll post the results just as soon as PPP makes them available.
UPDATE (James): It’s out.
Public Policy Polling (6/6-7, likely voters, 5/28-31 in parens):
Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (27)
Terry McAuliffe (D): 26 (24)
Brian Moran (D): 24 (22)
Undecided: 10 (26)
(MoE: ±3.0%)
Wow. What a huge movement for Creigh Deeds in just a few short weeks. Remember, Deeds was lagging at 14% in PPP’s 5/1-3 poll, but a well-timed endorsement from the Washington Post was clearly the catalyst for Deeds’ remarkable surge — and probably also a sign that a sizable share of Moran and McAuliffe’s support was pretty soft in the first place. Indeed, in the vote-rich DC burbs in Northern Virginia, where Deeds has been almost a non-factor for much of the race, Deeds has now pulled ahead of Moran by a 38-35 margin, with 20% going to McAuliffe.
And speaking of McAuliffe, take a look at his horrid favorability rating; among Democratic primary voters, just as many voters have a favorable opinion of the ex-DNC chair as those who dislike him (40%-40%). That’s pretty brutal. If Deeds can hold onto his lead on Tuesday, we may be dodging a major bullet here.
Of course, the usual caveats apply: Pegging the primary voter universe is a notoriously tough business (especially in an ultra-low turnout state like Virginia), and the ground game will be key on Tuesday. For now, though, the momentum is clearly at the back of Deeds.
No, we haven’t hired R2K. Rather, we’re curious to know who folks here would vote for if given the opportunity this Tuesday. So whether you live in Virginia or not, please let us know who you’d support in this SSP poll. And feel free to elaborate in comments!
Loading ...Research 2000 for the Great Orange Satan (6/1-3, likely voters, 5/18-20 in parens):
Terry McAuliffe (D): 26 (36)
Brian Moran (D): 27 (22)
Creigh Deeds (D): 30 (13)
Undecided: 17 (29)
(MoE: ±5%)
This is the third public poll (of the last four) to show Deeds grabbing the lead, but with the number of undecideds as high as they are and the primary voter ‘verse as uncertain as ever, the nomination is effectively a three-way jump ball right now. It would be quite the Cinderella story if Deeds could pull this off.
Meanwhile, McAuliffe is rolling out an endorsement from a surprising source: Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer… who is also serving as the chair of the Democratic Governors Association this cycle. The DGA, in case you’re not familiar, is the campaign and fundraising arm for Democratic gubernatorial candidates across the country. While Schweitzer’s people are claiming that he’s only making a personal endorsement, doing so while serving as DGA chair is misguided and unacceptable — especially when the chances are very real that McAuliffe won’t end up being the Democratic nominee on Tuesday. When you’re in the position that Schweitzer is in, the only smart and sensible move is to remain neutral until the nominee is decided by the primary electorate.
And I won’t even begin to get into the issue of McAuliffe being about as antithetical as possible to the populist, DC-despising image that Schweitzer has carefully crafted for himself over the years…
SurveyUSA (5/31-6/2, likely voters, mid-May in parens):
Terry McAuliffe (D): 35 (37)
Brian Moran (D): 26 (22)
Creigh Deeds (D): 29 (26)
Other/Undecided: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Cap’n, will you have a look a’ that!
Deeds was also the only candidate of the three to improve in head-to-heads against Bob McDonnell – in the last poll, he trailed 46-40, but is now just a point back at 44-43. McAuliffe and Moran both treaded water. The primary is this coming Tuesday, June 9th. Once again, SSP will be here to liveblog the results.
UPDATE (James): Suffolk has released a poll this morning showing Deeds with 29% to McAuliffe’s 26%, with Moran at 23%. And with that, Deeds takes the lead in Pollster.com’s graph.
• MN-Sen: Despite the seemingly increased likelihood that he’d jerk Al Franken around now that he doesn’t have to worry about re-election and how impatient Minnesotans feel about the Senate vacancy, Gov. Tim Pawlenty says he’ll certify Al Franken as winner of the Senate race if the state Supreme Court directs him to do so. Also, many are interpreting John Cornyn‘s comments about how the Senate GOP doesn’t have the votes to filibuster Sonia Sotomayor, even if they wanted to, as being a tacit admission that Franken would be seated soon.
• NC-Sen: It never quite seemed likely, but Elizabeth Edwards silenced any speculation that she might run for Senate against Richard Burr next year.
• KY-Sen: Here’s a new name sniffing out the Kentucky Senate primary. A staffer for Rep. Ed Whitfield from KY-01 just bought both domain names for “whitfieldforsenate.com” and “whitfieldforgovernor.com” (and inexplicably paid $800 for the two names). Maybe SoS Trey Grayson may have some company in the primary if Jim Bunning truly does bail out?
• VA-Gov: Ex-Del. Brian Moran leaked an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner to Political Wire. Lo and behold, it shows Moran in the lead, with 29% to 27% for Creigh Deeds and 26% for Terry McAuliffe. (Meaning that in the last week, each of the three primary candidates have led a poll.) (UPDATE: PPP points out a flaw here: this isn’t a topline, but the result from a subsample that’s disposed to do well for Moran: people who’ve participated in Democratic primaries prior to last year’s presidential race.)
Fundraising numbers for the three candidates also just came out: McAuliffe is way ahead on the money front, with $1.8 mil raised last quarter and $1.3 mil CoH ($7 mil total). Deeds raised $676K with $521K CoH ($3.8 mil total), and Moran raised $844K with $700 CoH ($4.8 mil total).
• MN-Gov: With T-Paw getting out, a flood of second-tier Republicans has spilled out in search of the nomination. State Sen. David Hann, state Sen. Geoff Michel, state Rep. Marty Seifert, state Rep. Paul Kohls, and former legislator Charlie Weaver are “interested.” Former Auditor Pat Anderson is going so far as to say she’ll announce in a month or two. Others mentioned include state Rep. Laura Brod, national committee member Brian Sullivan, and former state House speaker and current Labor and Industry Commissioner Steve Sviggum. The Star-Tribune also mentioned former Rep. Jim Ramstad (who’d do well in the general but may be too moderate to survive the nominating convention), state Sen. minority leader David Senjem, and one very big wild card… Norm Coleman, although his dragging-out of the Senate race can’t have helped his favorables. One prominent name who apparently isn’t interested: Rep. Michele Bachmann.
• MI-Gov: The Republican field in the Michigan governor’s race got even more crowded, as Oakland Co. Sheriff Rick Bouchard got in. (Bouchard lost the 2006 Senate race to Debbie Stabenow.) Bouchard’s entry was faciliated when his boss, Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, declined to run — but Bouchard may do exactly what Patterson would have done, which is split the Detroit suburban vote with AG Mike Cox, making it easier for Rep. Pete Hoekstra from the state’s west to sneak through.
• CO-04: Ex-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave fired off a rather unhinged-sounding fundraising letter on behalf of her new employers in the culture war, the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List. This may actually work to Rep. Betsy Markey’s advantage; she made reference to Musgrave’s letter in her own appeal for contributions.
• FL-17: Politics1 has an interesting, if a bit unsavory, rumor coming out of south Florida: 83-year-old former Rep. Carrie Meek may get on the ballot in FL-17, essentially to act as a one-term placeholder for her son, Rep. Kendrick Meek. (If he lost the Senate race, she would re-retire in 2012 and thus let him get his old job back. Or, if Meek won the Senate race, she’d still retire and let someone new take over FL-17.) Meek denied the rumor, though, to National Journal.
• FL-25: Here’s a potentially big name to take on Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who beat Joe Garcia by a small margin in 2008. Miami Mayor Manny Diaz is reportedly taking a look at the race; his name has also been mentioned in connection with the open Lt. Gov. slot.
• NC-11: PPP’s Tom Jensen looks at possible Democratic successors in this R+6 district if Rep. Heath Shuler gives up the seat to run for Senate. He cites state Sens. John Snow and Joe Sam Queen as likeliest. (He also links to a great map from Civitas that calculates the PVI for all of North Carolina’s state Senate districts.)
• SC-01: Rep. Henry Brown threw a “thank you” party in Myrtle Beach for his supporters, and at least 11 people walked away with the best possible tokens of his gratitude: diarrhea and nausea. State health officials are investigating to see if it was the result of food poisoning or just of the Republican rhetoric. Also, 2008 challenger Linda Ketner, who came close to knocking off Brown as an openly lesbian candidate in a dark-red district, may not be looking to run again. She did a refreshingly honest interview with FireDogLake, maybe a little too refreshing vis-a-vis her future viability, in terms of referring to “the conservative, religious crazy vote” and outing several prominent South Carolina politicians.
• UT-LG: A third generation of Romneys is getting warmed up (in a third state). Mitt Romney’s 33-year-old son Josh has been in talks with soon-to-be-Gov. Gary Herbert about the open Lieutenant Governor’s position.
• AL-St. Senate: Democrats can still be a downballot force in Alabama, managing to hold a state Senate seat in a deep-red part of rural Alabama north of Mobile. State Rep. Mark Keahey (who’s only 28) narrowly defeated Republican former state Rep. Greg Albritton, in a special election triggered by the January death of Democratic Sen. Pat Lindsey. (UPDATE: Actually, it turns out that the margin wasn’t so tight. Keahey crushed Albritton by a devastating 58-42 margin.)
• NH-St. House: In another special election, Democrats held a state House seat based in Lebanon, New Hampshire, as fire captain Andy White beat Republican Randy Wagoner. It’s Democratic-leaning turf, but the GOP turned this into a proxy battle over gay marriage (White is a vote in favor of it), and out-of-district money enabled Wagoner to outspend White at least 4-to-1.
Public Policy Polling (5/28-31, likely voters, 5/19-21 in parens):
Creigh Deeds (D): 27 (20)
Terry McAuliffe (D): 24 (29)
Brian Moran (D): 22 (20)
Undecided: 26 (31)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Tom Jensen breaks down the factors that are currently benefiting Deeds:
Two developments in the race appear to have fueled the movement over the last week and a half:
-Deeds’ endorsement by the Washington Post has resulted in a significant increase in support in northern Virginia. He was polling at 11% there two weeks ago and that has more than doubled in the wake of the endorsement to 23%. With that region casting about 30% of the primary vote, more than half of his progress since the last poll has come there alone.
-McAuliffe has seen a decline in support in the Hampton Roads and greater Richmond areas since Brian Moran went on the airwaves with ads attacking him. He’s dropped from 34 to 23% in Richmond and from 33 to 25% in Hampton Roads.
Even still, PPP cautions that the race is anyone’s game: that block of undecideds is still pretty huge (26%), and even among voters who do have a preference, a large number of them (44%) say that they could still change their mind. McAuliffe’s favorables are by far the weakest in the Dem field (39-35, comapared to 48-13 for Deeds and 44-18 for Moran), but he’s currently launching a costly moneynuke in the vote-rich DC media market — something that the cash-strapped Moran and Deeds can’t compete with.
And speaking of Northern VA, SUSA has a NoVA-only poll showing Moran leading McAuliffe by 43-27, with Deeds checking in at 20%. That’s not far off from the Moran 36/McAuliffe 27/Deeds 23 split from PPP’s innards.
PPP will be releasing one final poll of this race on Sunday night (or Monday morning), so we’ll have one final chance to see if McAuliffe’s big-spending ways are having an impact.
(Discussion already underway in conspiracy‘s diary.)
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/18-20, likely voters, early April in parens):
Terry McAuliffe (D): 36 (19)
Brian Moran (D): 22 (24)
Creigh Deeds (D): 13 (16)
Undecided: 29 (41)
(MoE: 5%)
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-21, likely voters, early May in parens):
Terry McAuliffe (D): 29 (30)
Brian Moran (D): 20 (20)
Creigh Deeds (D): 20 (14)
Undecided: 31 (36)
(MoE: 3.9%)
Despite what you see here, PPP and R2K actually showed similar surges for McAuliffe – it’s just that PPP has polled more frequently. If you go back to their late March survey, the numbers are very similar to R2K’s. The biggest difference between the newest polls is that PPP, like SUSA, shows Deeds – who was just endorsed by the Washington Post – moving up, while R2K has him stagnating.
Even if Deeds does have positive momentum, will it be enough? The primary is just two weeks from today, and this is what all the recent polling looks like:
PPP suggests that McAuliffe is benefitting from the fact that neither Moran nor Deeds has been able to consolidate the support) of people who don’t like T-Mac (they split that group 40-35 in Moran’s favor). Time is running out for either man to break that logjam.
P.S. R2K also tested general election matchups, which you can find here.
SurveyUSA (5/17-19, likely voters, late April in parens):
Terry McAuliffe (D): 37 (38)
Brian Moran (D): 22 (22)
Creigh Deeds (D): 26 (22)
Other/Undecided: 14 (18)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (39)
Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (44)Terry McAuliffe (D): 40 (39)
Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (46)Brian Moran (D): 37 (34)
Bob McDonnell (R): 47 (46)
(MoE: ±2.4%)
Reasearch 2000 will have a new primary poll out tomorrow, and PPP will have one Friday or Saturday. They note that the three candidates are evenly split among frequent primary voters, but more casual voters lean decidedly toward McAuliffe. The primary is on June 9th.
Survey USA for WDBJ 7 in Roanoke
Survey USA polled the Virginia Governor’s race again, and with less than three weeks to go, State Senator Creigh Deeds is surging.
Terry McAuliffe leads with 37%. Deeds is now in second with 26%. Former Delegate Brian Moran now sits in third place with 22%.
I think this is great news. I’m rooting for Deeds–I thought he was very impressive in the debate I saw on C-SPAN, and think that he would be the strongest challenger against Attorney General Bob McDonnell. He’s the only candidate who gained ground since the last SUSA poll, and now leads in Central Virginia.
Being the only candidate from Southern Virginia, I think Deeds can hold our margin down there. I think he’ll be able to run up the score in NoVA, too–at least as much as he has to. McAuliffe still seems like a wild-card, and I don’t see Moran pulling it out. The primary is on June 9; the general in November.
This is certainly a race to watch.
http://www.deedsforvirginia.com/
http://www.terrymcauliffe.com/
http://www.brianmoran.com/
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