Congressman elect Cao is behind schedule so the show will be a little later this afternoon. We will try and give a 10-15 minute notice
We are doing a podcast with Joseph Cao (LA-02) this afternoon. We will be focusing on Cao becoming the first Vietnamese-American Congressman. Fascinating story.
Click on this link to check it out. If you miss it you can click on the link on site later and listen to the podcast.
Granted, it’s not a lot of cash, but it’s still cash on a D+28 seat.
From today’s FEC filings:
Supports Candidate: AHN CAO
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Louisiana District 02
Payee: MARATHON STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS
Date Expended = 12/02/2008 Amount Expended = $7071.38
Purpose: FIELD ORGANIZINGOpposes Candidate: WILLIAM J JEFFERSON
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Louisiana District 02
Payee: MARATHON STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS
Date Expended = 12/02/2008 Amount Expended = $7071.38
Purpose: FIELD ORGANIZING
Just a few responses to comments from old topics that I missed while out of town.
http://swingstateproject.com/s…
Did Kanjorski do something bad? If not, it seems that the only ones who need to go are Mahoney and Jefferson.
http://swingstateproject.com/s…
Well, granted, Negron ran a strong campaign, as I heard, and they had a really nice slogan for it too (“Punch Foley for Negron”).
http://swingstateproject.com/s…
Do we have evidence about Anzalone-Liszt’s quality other than MS-01?
http://swingstateproject.com/s…
And make those funny EV rules actually worth something!
Also, some funny thoughts about Florida, in response to a comment whose location I forgot:
No one puts faith in Florida. Here are the rules of dealing with Florida:
1. No one understands Florida. It does not make sense.
2. Florida does not do what you want it to do. However, if you expect it not to do what you want it to do, it will do what you want it to do. But this therefore starts an endless cycle in which you expect it to do either what you want or what you don’t want.
3. Florida has the inexplicable quantum ability to exist in more than one state of affairs simultaneously, allowing statement #2 to be true. Thus, it is possible to simultaneously win and lose an election.
4. No one puts faith in Florida. If you do, you are dutily rewarded. Al Gore put his faith in Florida and he was rewarded with a supreme court decision. George W. Bush put his faith in Florida and he was rewarded with a Middle Eastern mess, a sinking economy, and the worst presidential disapproval ratings ever. Christine Jennings put her faith in Florida and she was rewarded with voting problems in Sarasota County. Katherine Harris put her faith in Florida and she was rewarded with a good ass-whupping courtesy of Bill Nelson. Heck, I put my faith in Florida and I was rewarded with with classical music stations disappearing from the south Florida radio airwaves, and with Florida being called for Bush with 97% reporting in 2004.
5. Florida also has the ability to create votes from thin air and erase votes into thin air. No one is ever sure of the numbers, absolute or relative, of each. These numbers are not necessarily whole; Florida has a record of involving fractions of votes as well.
RESULTS: Associated Press | LA SoS
Polls have now closed in Louisiana; we’ll be following the results in this thread.
12:25AM: 464 precincts in, and it’s 25 Jefferson, 20 Moreno, 17 Richmond. 28 precincts outstanding, but it looks like we’re headed for a Jefferson-Moreno runoff, which is probably what Jefferson was hoping for.
11:51PM: 356 of 492 precincts reporting in LA-02, and it’s 25 Jefferson, 22 Moreno, 16 Lee, 15 Richmond.
11:44PM: 2 precincts remaining in LA-04, and Carmouche has topped off at 48%. Damn. I was really hoping to avoid a runoff here.
11:35PM: 23 precincts remaining in LA-04, and Carmouche is at 47.5%. I don’t think he has enough gas in the tank to avoid a runoff against Willie Banks, my friends.
11:19PM: Over in LA-04, Carmouche has pulled up to 47%, with 42 precincts in Bossier outstanding. Bossier has been breaking pretty heavily for the ‘Mouche, but will it be enough to escape a runoff?
11:11PM: 247 precincts reporting. 26 Jefferson, 22 Moreno, 17 Lee, 14 Richmond. James Carter is also getting a decent share of the vote in Orleans Parish (where most of the outstanding votes are), though it doesn’t look like it’ll be enough to get him into the top two.
10:58PM: It’s now 26 Jefferson, 23 Moreno, 20 Lee in LA-02 with 171 precincts in. Richmond fell back a bit to 13.5%.
10:55PM: Fleming is now just nosing Gorman by less than 80 votes in LA-04, but that race is definitely headed for a nasty runoff. Carmouche is sitting at 46% with 93 precincts left, mostly from Bossier Parish but also 18 from Caddo.
10:45PM: 152 precincts in, and Jefferson leads with 27%, followed by Moreno at 22, Lee at 17, and Cedric Richmond now at 15.
10:23PM: 78 precincts in, and Jefferson has pulled ahead over Moreno by 27-24, with Lee sitting at 22. In LA-04, Fleming now has a 41-36 lead over Gorman.
10:17PM: 55 precincts in, and while Lee has taken a small lead over Moreno, Dollar Bill has closed the gap: 26.6-26.1-25.6.
10:11PM: 29 precincts reporting now in LA-02, and it’s a 31-30-22 race between Moreno, Lee, and Jefferson. Over in LA-04, I’m a bit less confident in my earlier prediction that Carmouche would hit 50% tonight, but we’ll see. He’s at 44% right now with a little under one-half counted.
10:05PM: He did it! With only 121 of 506 precincts reporting in LA-01, Jim Harlan has already surpassed Gilda Reed’s vote haul in the May special election. Hooray.
10:00PM: 13 precincts reporting in LA-02, and it’s dramatically closer three-way race between Moreno, Lee, and Jefferson: 681-658-525. In LA-04, Carmouche is at 43%, and Fleming has a 40-36 lead over Gorman.
9:50PM: Alright, a few more votes have been counted, and Jefferson has 13%. Former TV anchor Helena Moreno, the lone white candidate in this primary, has an early 38-28 lead over Jefferson Parish Councilman Byron Lee.
9:47PM: Also amusing. With a single precinct reporting and 37 votes tallied in LA-02, Bill Jefferson has zero votes.
9:45PM: Amusing. With 77 of 640 precincts reporting in LA-04, the third-ranked candidate in the Democratic primary, John Milkovich, has more votes than the leader of the GOP primary, John Fleming (3087 to 2963 votes).
9:43PM: Here’s my question: Will Jim Harlan score more votes in the LA-01 Democratic primary than Gilda Reed won in the May special election for this seat? The magic number: 10,142 votes.
9:30PM: Some early results from LA-04 with just 2% reporting: physician John Fleming is up over trucking executive Chris Gorman by 41-37, with Bossier Chamber of Commerce President Jeff Thompson in third. On the Democratic side, Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche is sitting at 44%. With very few votes counted from Caddo (Shreveport) so far, I’d expect him to hit 50% and avoid a runoff against his lesser-known opponents.
It’s primary day in Louisiana, and polls will close at 8pm Central/9pm Eastern. We’ll have a results thread up later. There are two key races worth watching, which Crisitunity wrote about last month (before the primaries were postponed due to Hurricane Gustav):
LA-02: Here’s the big opportunity for Democrats to clean house, by ridding themselves of their most corrupt member, Bill Jefferson. In a purely one-on-one race, Jefferson might be facing some long odds (although maybe not, given Louisiana residents’ tendency to be a little more forgiving of their pols’ indiscretions than in most places). Unfortunately, Jefferson faces an extremely crowded field, with the anti-Jefferson vote split among six other candidates (some of whom might actually be pro-Jefferson Trojan horses?): state representative Cedric Richmond, Jefferson Parish councilor Byron Lee, New Orleans city councilor James Carter, former New Orleans city councilor Troy Carter, Ray Nagin aide Kenya Smith, and former TV anchor Helena Moreno. Jefferson also has the edge in very cold, very hard cash on hand, although his pre-primary numbers showed slackening fundraising.
The good news is, what with a corrupt incumbent and a raft of challengers, this is almost certainly going to a runoff (which will be held October 4). I have absolutely no idea who will be opposing Jefferson in the runoff… and remember that the runoff didn’t work so well in 2006, when then-state representative Karen Carter Peterson lost to Jefferson despite the corruption allegations having surfaced (prior to his indictment, however). The runoff is the de facto general in this D+28 district.
LA-04: There’s a three-way fight among the top-tier Republicans in this battle to replace the retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery in this Shreveport-based R+7 district. The fundraising advantage seems to go to former Bossier Chamber of Commerce president Jeff Thompson and to self-funding trucking company executive Chris Gorman. However, several internal polls give a sizable edge to physician John Fleming.
The good news (for us) is that each of these guys is a relative unknown, and going up in November against Paul Carmouche, who has been the district attorney in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport) for literally decades, and who faces only token primary opposition. With the likelihood of none of the three GOPers hitting 50%, and the nastiness getting dragged out for another month till a runoff, Carmouche looks to be in the catbird’s seat.
While these races are almost certainly set to go to runoffs, does anyone care to guess who will be the top two in each district? And how large of a share of the vote will “Dollar” Bill Jefferson pull in?
Because Hurricane Gustav pushed back Louisiana’s primaries from September to this Saturday (be sure to check SSP for all your liveblogging needs), House candidates had to file yet another pre-primary fundraising report with the FEC, this one covering the period from August 18th through September 14th. (For reference, the 7/1-8/17 pre-primary reports are available here.) Here are all the pertinent numbers:
All numbers, of course, are in thousands.
The King of Pop and Republican pretender Bill Cassidy have yet to file in LA-06, but we’ll update this post accordingly when they do.
Check out the mad money that Jim Harlan is spending in the deep-red LA-01. He’s spent $790K to date.
The latest Bayou Buzz:
According to the Secretary of State’s office, the Governor plans to set the election dates, at their request, for the Democratic and Republican Primaries, as well as the general, as follows: the 1st District race (Oct. 4th primary; November 4th general), the 2nd District race (Oct. 4th primary; Nov. 4th runoff; Dec. 6th or Nov. 4th general), the 4th District race (Oct. 4th primary; Dec. 6th or Nov. 4th general), and the 5th District race (Oct. 4th primary; Nov. 4th general).
So, in most cases, Louisiana’s congressional races will be decided on November 4th, with two big exceptions: LA-02 and LA-04, where it’s looking very likely that runoffs will need to be held on November 4th. The Buzz offers its take on that timeline’s impact on the Democratic primary to topple crumb-bum Rep. Bill Jefferson.
As for the 4th District race, where Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche is offering Democrats a strong shot at picking up the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery, this move could end up working in Carmouche’s favor. Democrats have had a pretty good record of success in recent Louisiana runoffs (e.g. Mary Landrieu in 2002, Kathleen Blanco in 2003, and Charlie Melancon in 2004), and if Dems are successful at the presidential and congressional levels in November, the GOP base could end up being rather deflated a month later. Furthermore, you could expect the DCCC to bring its full resources to bear here, while it’s a good bet that the Republican candidate will be tapped out after a hard-fought three-way primary and runoff.
From Roll Call:
Louisiana will not hold its scheduled primaries Saturday because of the devastation and voter displacement caused by Hurricane Gustav earlier this week.
State election officials could decide as early as today when to reschedule the elections, and as of Wednesday there still was some hope of being able to hold the primaries on Sept. 13. Doing so would allow any required runoffs to take place on Oct. 4, the state’s currently scheduled runoff date.
Another possibility could be to hold all primaries on Oct. 4. That would push any required runoffs back to November and mean that some districts may not have a general election until December.
If Louisiana’s congressional elections are pushed back to December, that could be bad news for Democrats in LA-04, LA-06, and LA-07 — as a high African-American turnout inspired by Barack Obama is considered a key element of Dem chances here.
On the other hand, if Obama does win in November, the GOP’s hard-right base could be in such a state of depression and malaise that they might not be feeling pumped up about showing up for a December general election. (Shades of TX-23, anyone?)
The decision is up to Gov. Bobby Jindal.
The light at the end of the tunnel is upon us: the last batch of primaries occurs during the first few weeks of September. While there’s only one last good shot at bouncing an incumbent (LA-02), there is still a wide variety of tasty races in this smorgasbord.
September 2
AZ-01: As Rick Renzi looks forward to his golden years in prison retirement, there are battles on each side of the aisle to replace him. On the Democratic side, the frontrunner is former state representative Ann Kirkpatrick. There haven’t been any polls, but Kirkpatrick has thoroughly dominated the fundraising chase. Two of her opponents can’t be ruled out, though, especially given their connections to the Native American community (Natives make up nearly one-quarter of this district which encompasses much of rural Arizona, by far the most of any congressional district): environmental attorney Howard Shanker, who has often represented the tribes in court, and former TV reporter Mary Kim Titla, who as an Apache would be the first-ever Native American woman in Congress.
On the Republican side, ultra-conservative mining industry lobbyist Sydney Hay somehow got stuck carrying the party’s flag after more prominent (and electable) recruits demurred. Hay’s fundraising has been sub-par, giving attorney/ex-State Dept. official Sandra Livingstone an opening to surprise her. The odds still favor Hay… which may favor the Dems this November, given Hay’s unlikeability, the narrow lean of the R+2 district, and the stench left behind by Renzi.
AZ-05: Freshman Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell might have been endangered in this suburban R+4 district in a less Dem-friendly year, having drawn a slew of credible challengers in the Republican primary. Former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert seems to have the best shot, based on fundraising and having the largest constitutency. However, ex-city councilor Susan Bitter Smith, ex-state senator Laura Knaperek, ex-state representative Mark Anderson, and lobbyist Jim Ogsbury are all in this thing, and without a runoff, one of the lesser candidates could easily sneak by, if they have a more cohesive bloc.
September 6 (?)
LA-02: Here’s the big opportunity for Democrats to clean house, by ridding themselves of their most corrupt member, Bill Jefferson. In a purely one-on-one race, Jefferson might be facing some long odds (although maybe not, given Louisiana residents’ tendency to be a little more forgiving of their pols’ indiscretions than in most places). Unfortunately, Jefferson faces an extremely crowded field, with the anti-Jefferson vote split among six other candidates (some of whom might actually be pro-Jefferson Trojan horses?): state representative Cedric Richmond, Jefferson Parish councilor Byron Lee, New Orleans city councilor James Carter, former New Orleans city councilor Troy Carter, Ray Nagin aide Kenya Smith, and former TV anchor Helena Moreno. Jefferson also has the edge in very cold, very hard cash on hand, although his pre-primary numbers showed slackening fundraising.
The good news is, what with a corrupt incumbent and a raft of challengers, this is almost certainly going to a runoff (which will be held October 4). I have absolutely no idea who will be opposing Jefferson in the runoff… and remember that the runoff didn’t work so well in 2006, when then-state representative Karen Carter Peterson lost to Jefferson despite the corruption allegations having surfaced (prior to his indictment, however). The runoff is the de facto general in this D+28 district.
LA-04: There’s a three-way fight among the top-tier Republicans in this battle to replace the retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery in this Shreveport-based R+7 district. The fundraising advantage seems to go to former Bossier Chamber of Commerce president Jeff Thompson and to self-funding trucking company executive Chris Gorman. However, several internal polls give a sizable edge to physician John Fleming.
The good news (for us) is that each of these guys is a relative unknown, and going up in November against Paul Carmouche, who has been the district attorney in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport) for literally decades, and who faces only token primary opposition. With the likelihood of none of the three GOPers hitting 50%, and the nastiness getting dragged out for another month till a runoff, Carmouche looks to be in the catbird’s seat.
September 9
DE-Gov: The main event in Delaware is the Democratic primary in the governor’s race, between Lt. Gov. John Carney and Treasurer Jack Markell. (Either one is expected to coast in November, against retired judge Bill Lee.) Both seem like solid Dems; Carney is more associated with labor and party insiders, and Markell is considered more of a ‘fresh’ face, despite an endorsement from the DLC last year. This becomes more interesting when considering that the winner may be the one who appoints Joe Biden’s successor (although that could also be Ruth Ann Minner’s last act), and the gubernatorial loser may be the one who gets to be the next senator.
DE-AL: On paper, this should be a competitive race; at D+6, it’s the most Democratic-leaning district still occupied by a Republican (Mike Castle). Barring something weird happening, though, Castle will continue to occupy this seat for at least the next two years. This is worth mentioning mostly because this primary gets a lot of netroots focus; veterinarian and Kossack Jerry Northington is running, as well as ’06 independent candidate Karen Hartley-Nagle and accountant Mike Miller.
MN-Sen: Al Franken pretty much locked this nomination down long ago at the DFL convention, which is ordinarily the end game in Minnesota. However, attorney Priscilla Lord Faris is hanging around the margins, raising arguments about Franken’s electibility and otherwise trying to bleed him to death with paper cuts. Don’t look for Faris to come close to winning, but Franken’s numbers in the primary might help us gauge just how vulnerable he is to the whole ‘juicy porn’ line of attack in the general.
MN-01: There’s still a duel going on in this R+1 Rochester-based district for the right to get flattened by freshman Dem Tim Walz. State senator Dick Day seemed an early favorite for the GOP nomination, but Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis has run an aggressive campaign well to the right of the affable Day, and with his sizable fundraising edge (much of which may be out of his own pocket) may shoot past Day. Either way, the nasty primary only serves to bolster Walz, who’s on the verge of securing this seat for good.
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter was one of the biggest Democratic upsets in the 2006 cycle, and with mediocre polling numbers, a desire to hold the DCCC at arm’s length, and a potential rematch against the narrowly-defeated ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, she may be one of this cycle’s most endangered Dem incumbents. However, the good news is that Bradley has been stumbling around in his own primary, against former New Hampshire Health and Human Services Director John Stephen. Stephen has been hitting the more moderate Bradley hard from the right, and has drawn even with him in fundraising. Both lag Shea-Porter’s cash stash (for a woman who hates to raise money, she sure raises money). Even if Bradley makes it through the primary, his empty wallet and mud-spattered suit will complicate efforts to retake this D+0 seat.
NH-02: Of the two new New Hampshire representatives from 2006, conventional wisdom has always viewed Paul Hodes as the safer one. Talk radio host Jennifer Horn is the challenger who’s probably drawn the most attention from the rest of the right-wing punditsphere (gee, I wonder why?), and she leads the fundraising chase. State senator Bob Clegg and former congressional aide Grant Bosse are still in the mix. Between the seat’s D+3 lean and Hodes’ huge cash advantage, though, any of them are likely to be no more than a speed bump for Hodes (as seen by our recent upgrade of this race to Safe Dem).
NY-10: At D+41, in this mostly African-American seat in Brooklyn, the primary is the main event. Edolphus Towns, who has held this seat since 1982, survived a three-way challenge in 2006, giving him the whiff of vulnerability. (Indeed, he’s seen stiff primary fights in other years as well.) This year, he faces another spirited challenge, this time from writer and community organizer Kevin Powell (best known for playing the role of ‘angry black guy’ on the very first season of MTV’s The Real World back in 1992). Towns has survived higher-profile challenges before, but with his checkered past (voting for bankruptcy reform and CAFTA, snuggling up to black Republican J.C. Watts) and Powell’s celebrity-fueled run, this is one to watch.
NY-13: This race has been an SSP staple since May. Rather than give you a blow-by-blow recap, I’ll simply redirect anyone not familiar with this race to SSP’s Timeline of GOP Disasters, as this race seems to make up a large portion of that epic work. Starting with Vito Fossella’s retirement upon his admission of his affair and love child, the GOP has with each subsequent incident fallen deeper and deeper into a rabbit hole of embarrassing absurdity.
As it stands, there is still an ostensibly competitive primary on each side of the aisle in this D+1 seat. On the Dem side, city councilor Mike McMahon is poised to win over attorney Steve Harrison. (McMahon is considered more conservative than Harrison, and Harrison has the advantage of being the ’06 candidate, but McMahon has the gigantic advantage of being from Staten Island, unlike Brooklynite Harrison, which is key in this parochial SI-based district.) McMahon has a large cash edge and DCCC backing.
On the GOP side, after every credible candidate (and some incredible ones as well) passed on the race, we’re down to a primary between Manhattan resident Robert Straniere (always referred to as “ex-Assemblyman/hot dog restauranteur”) and Jamshad “Jim” Wyne, treasurer of the Staten Island GOP. Both Straniere and Wyne are widely detested, have no money, and to make matters worse (for them), are now bashing each other incessantly.
NY-21: This race is a little reminiscent of CO-02: a big slate of liberal Democrats vying to take over a safe Democratic (D+9) seat being vacated by long-timer Mike McNulty. There are at least four credible candidates here: ex-Assemblyman Paul Tonko, former Hillary Clinton aide Tracey Brooks, Albany County Legislator Phil Steck, and former congressional aide Darius Shahinfar. Steck received the endorsement of the Albany County Democratic Committee, but Tonko seems to have a big edge in name recognition, based on an internal poll giving him a sizable lead. Tonko has key labor endorsements such as the SEIU; Brooks has the NOW endorsement; Steck and Shahinfar are endorsers of the Responsible Plan. In other words, we have four pretty solid progressives; just pick the flavor you like.
NY-26: This R+3 open seat in the Buffalo suburbs, left vacant when Tom Reynolds decided to hit the eject button, looked to present one more easy pickup for the New York Dems. Charismatic Iraq War vet Jon Powers quickly moved to grab the endorsement of all the Democratic Party organizations in each county. However, there’s one huge obstacle between Powers and the nomination: crazy tycoon Jack Davis, who, with his single-minded focus on fair trade and illegal immigrants, was possibly the only person who could have wrested defeat from the jaws of victory against Reynolds in 2006 at the height of the Mark Foley scandal. Davis, if you’ll recall, was the vanquisher of the Millionaire’s Amendment, freeing him to spend willy-nilly to buy this race. He was last heard from worrying about how immigrants will lead to the Second Civil War.
Although Powers has been a strong fundraiser, Davis has still been outspending Powers lately, purely out of his own pocket, and pummeling Powers over the alleged inefficacy of Powers’ charitable efforts for Iraqi kids. Either outcome doesn’t look good: Davis buying the primary and being cannon fodder in the general against the well-funded and uncontroversial Republican businessman Chris Lee, or a wounded and depleted Powers staggering into the general. (There’s a third candidate, “environmental” lawyer Alice Kryzan, but it doesn’t seem she has enough of a base to sneak unnoticed past the other two.)
Voters in Louisiana were set to head to the polls for their state’s primary elections this Saturday, but with Hurricane Gustav hitting the Gulf Coast, it’s looking like the primaries could be delayed by a week:
Although Louisiana election officials said Monday that they aren’t optimistic about being able to hold the state’s primaries on Saturday as scheduled, no official decision is expected until after Hurricane Gustav moves out of Louisiana later this week.
Even though the storm made landfall with less intensity than originally expected on Monday, it still had the potential to wreak widespread damage across Louisiana. And even if the storm dissipates quickly, the mass evacuations that took place in coastal areas would make it tough to hold an election by Saturday in several districts.
“Sept. 6 does not look likely,” said Jacques Berry, spokesman for Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R). Berry said that as of Monday afternoon, Dardenne had not made any official recommendation about postponing the election to Gov. Bobby Jindal (R), who has the power to make that decision.
Obviously everyone’s first concern is the safety of lives and property (and on that score, Gustav so far seems mercifully tamer than most expected), but we’ll also be keeping an eye on the evacuation’s impacts on the state’s primary schedule. Stay tuned.