Tag: AL-02

Bobby Bright is by no means my favorite kind of Democrat, but he sure knows how to turn conservative groups against each other. The Politico is reporting that Bobby Bright was able to use Freedom’s Watch’s attacks nto an opportunity to get the Christian Coalition to his side.

They might ordinarily find themselves rooting for the same candidates, but the Christian Coalition is no fan of Freedom’s Watch and its major funder, casino magnate Sheldon Adelson.

Last week, Freedom’s Watch launched a new ad campaign slamming Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright for what it said was a record of raising taxes. Bright fired back with his own ad citing his “conservative Christian values,” implicitly in contrast with those of Freedom’s Watch and Adelson, who is Jewish.

The Christian Coalition takes issue with Adelson, who made billions — he’s the country’s fifteenth-richest man, according to this year’s Forbes 400 list — in the casino business, with properties in Las Vegas and Macau. The Venetian Macau is what sticks in the craw of social conservatives. “Where Adelson has placed his treasure makes it quite clear where his heart is: in gambling and in backing the regime in China that persecutes Christians,” Alabama Christian Coalition president Randy Brinson said in a statement.

The coalition also invokes disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who helped Native American tribes get approval for new casinos, often aiding his clients by funneling money to Christian organizations that would then rally in opposition to other tribes’ efforts. “We’re tired of the Abramoffs and Adelsons of this world using their ill-gotten gains to try to buy elections and influence,” Brinson said.

Bright, running as a conservative Democrat, actually attends the same church as his opponent, State Rep. Jay Love. The Christian Coalition called on Love to repudiate the Freedom’s Watch ads as well.

Yes it is very unseemly, but then so are the Repubcians, Freedom’s Watch and the Republicans. And it is a rare Democrat who knows how to turn the GOP’s factions against each other.

The DCCC filed $1.37 million worth in media buys in support of Democratic House candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has aired ads in AZ-08, FL-16, KY-02, MD-01, and VA-11.

The lone GOP-friendly media buy comes from the bastards at the American Academy of Ophthalmology, which is dropping cash in support of Republican Bill Cassidy (himself an MD) in his race against Don Cazayoux. See you in hell, eye doctors!

But don’t get the impression that this is one-sided affair just because the NRCC is holding its musket fire. Freedom’s Crotch is up with some ad buys of its own smearing Democrats:

• AL-02: $150,000
  

• IL-11: $430,000
  

• NJ-03: $74,000
  

• NJ-07: $500,000

The Crotch is also spending an unspecified amount on NM-01 and NV-03. Ugh.

The DCCC is opening up their floodgates to some serious advertising expenditures in support of Democratic House candidates. Tonight, the committee filed $1.75 million in advertising expenditures in 15 districts:

These are some of the first significant media buys that the DCCC has made this fall, including a whopping $500K dumped against Jeb Bradley in NH-01.

The NRCC is continuing to maintain radio silence, because they can’t afford to match pace. I wonder if they’ll do some serious deficit financing in order to stay afloat this year.

More details on these and other expenditures are available in SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker. The DCCC has made some of these ads available to view online on their multimedia page.

Earlier in the week, we wrote about a recent SurveyUSA poll of Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District that showed Republican Jay Love leading Democrat Bobby Bright by an unexpectedly wide margin: 56%-39%.

We wrote at the time that the poll, commissioned by Roll Call, didn’t really pass the sniff test. Despite the 2nd District having an African-American population that makes up between 29 and 30% of the district, SurveyUSA pegged the black vote at only 16% of their voter screen. Other pollsters, including the reputable Democratic firm Anzalone-Liszt, peg the African-American vote at 10 points higher — and consider that a conservative estimate given the historic nature of this year.

It now turns out that Roll Call itself was dissatisfied with SUSA’s work:

The poll, according to SurveyUSA CEO Jay Leve, calculated black turnout at 16 percent. According to exit polling from the 2004 general election, black turnout in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District was 24 percent. Leve said black turnout was calculated at 16 percent because “that’s what we got when we conducted the survey.”

After the poll results were released by Roll Call on Tuesday, Roll Call asked SurveyUSA pollster Jay Leve to “re-weight” the results based on greater black turnout.

According to Leve, Love’s lead shrinks to 50-44 if black turnout equals 2004 levels. It shrinks even more to 49-46 – within the 4 percent margin of error – if black turnout increases to 27 percent.

“I do not consider the Democrat concerns anything other than fairly voiced,” Leve said. “It’s important to understand that there is no way to know which number is closest to the truth, because the truth is hard to know. It is safe to say that depending on what the black turnout is, the Republican will either win by quite a bit, or the race may be very close.”

“Democrat concerns”. Heh, nice one.

As I said on Tuesday, it’s very telling that even Jay Love’s internal polling has shown this race to be neck-and-neck. Alabama pollsters with a long track record in statewide politics like Anzalone and the Capital Survey Research Center have both shown Bright leading by ten. Perhaps the race isn’t quite as favorable for Bright as it was in early August (though there’s no real reason for it not to be), but it’s pretty clear that SurveyUSA popped out a dud — plain and simple.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

(Hat-tip: Left in Alabama)

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/26-28, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 39

Jay Love (R): 56

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Alright, on its face, those are some nasty and disappointing numbers. They’re also way out of line with all the polls we’ve seen of this race so far; internal polls released from both the Bright and Love camps show a dramatically different race. Bright’s polling (by Anzalone-Liszt, a firm with a hot streak this year) from earlier this month showed the Democrat leading by 10 points, and Love’s latest poll from late July showed the Republican leading by a mere two points. A Capital Survey Research Center poll from earlier this month also showed Bright leading by ten points.

So what gives? The poll’s innards give us a big clue. While Alabama’s 2nd CD is 30% African-American, SUSA has pegged the black vote at only 16% of the survey’s sample. Now, I’m not sure what pollsters like Anzalone, CSRC, or even McLaughlin peg the black vote at, but do we really think that the African-American vote is going to be that depressed this year?

Bright wins the black vote by 82-11, and Love wins the white vote by 66-30. If you re-weight this poll to bring the black vote up to 30%, Love’s lead shrinks to 50-46. That’s still a much brighter picture for Love since the early August polls, but it’s unclear what’s happened since then that would boost his numbers so dramatically (ALFA and the peanut farmers endorsing him?), especially given that Bright got a big boost from Dothan GOP Mayor Pat Thomas’ endorsement a week before this poll was in the field.

I like SUSA’s work a lot, but I suspect they’ve made a misfire here.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Jay Love must be fuming. As Danny over at Doc’s Political Parlor reports, the Republican mayor of Dothan, the heavily conservative population anchor of the Wiregrass portion of the southeastern corner of the district, has given his endorsement to Democrat Bobby Bright:

Republican Dothan Mayor Pat Thomas crossed the aisle today to endorse Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright’s Democratic bid for the 2nd Congressional District seat. Thomas is the John McCain campaign’s Mayoral Chair for the state of Alabama, has served on the Republican Executive Committee of Houston County, and says that he has never voted for a Democrat on a national level. Thomas was also a member of the Wiregrass’s “unofficial Congressional Selection Committee” that united early behind the candidacy of Republican state Sen. Harri Anne Smith in an effort to ensure that the next Representative from AL-02 was from the Wiregrass.

Political Parlor has the full text of the endorsement. At a population of 85,000 and the base of state Sen. Harri Anne Smith, whom Love defeated in a nasty primary, Bright’s performance in Dothan will be crucial for his chances of victory this November. This is huge.

Capital Survey Research Center (8/6-7,11, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 47

Jay Love (R): 37

(MoE: ±4.4%)

More great numbers for Bright, and they confirm the spread of a recent Anzalone-Liszt internal (conducted just days before this poll) which had Bright leading Love by 50-40.

Love has countered with his own internal poll showing him leading Bright by 41-39. Those numbers may very well have been accurate snapshot of the race, but Love’s poll was conducted in the immediate afterglow of his run-off victory against Harri Ann Smith, and before Bright’s Montgomery and Dothan ad buys had sunken in.

An excerpt from the polling memo is available below the fold.

Anzalone-Liszt for Bobby Bright (8/3-6, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 50

Jay Love (R): 40

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Impressive numbers for Bobby Bright, especially when you consider the district’s generic ballot (45R-33D) and partisan self-identification (44R-36D). And while the primary gave Jay Lovin’ a huge boost in name recognition (74%), Bright’s name ID is only five points higher (79%), throwing a bit of sand on the assumption that Love would pull ahead as soon as he increased his profile in the district.

Bright’s personal favorability is very high in the district, with 63% rating him favorably and only 16% unfavorably. Additionally, his job approval ratings as mayor of Montgomery are even higher: 68-9.

By a 3-to-1 margin, voters say that Love is running a negative campaign. So while his primary did boost his numbers somewhat, he’s still dealing with a bit of a hangover from its nasty tone.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but we’re liking what we see here today.

(H/T: Political Parlor)

UPDATE: Jay Lovin’ has released his own internal poll. McLaughlin & Associates (7/21-22, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 39

Jay Love (R-inc): 41

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Well, both camps agree on one thing; as they say in tennis “40 Love”. (H/T: Andy Dufresne)

Well, I knew that times were lean at the NRCC, but this is a whole ‘nother level of stinginess:

Visiting Huntsville and Montgomery on Monday, U.S. Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla. gave a $5,000 check from the NRCC to each one: 5th District GOP hopeful Wayne Parker, a Huntsville insurance executive, and 2nd District candidate state Rep. Jay Love of Montgomery.

Cole said the NRCC expects to put about $80,000 into each of the races before the Nov. 4 general election. That’s as much as the committee plans to put into any campaign. He said the races are among the top 10 priorities for the NRCC, and he expects candidates will have to spend at least $1 million to win in each district.

It’s difficult to imagine the NRCC spending a mere $80K on any race among their “top 10 priorities”, especially in the 2nd District, where the DCCC has reserved nearly $600K worth of ads for the open seat race. Just take a look at the kind of money that Tom Reynolds threw around last time (see here, here, and here).

Now, I realize that the NRCC is cash-strapped, but they do have nearly $8.5M on-hand, and surely they’ll have much more than that in the bank to spend come fall. Cole’s statement is altogether baffling. Is he just trying to light a fire under local donors, or is he saving the bulk of the NRCC’s booty for their other eight “priorities”?

(Hat-tip: Left in Alabama)

Polls are now closed in the runoff elections for the GOP nominations in two open House seats in Alabama. We’ll be using this thread to follow the returns as they come in.

Results: Associated Press | County-by-County (AP)

9:46PM: Well: that’s that. The AP has called this one for Jay Love (and Wayne Parker, for that matter). So does this mean that George Jones will now be voting for Bobby Bright?

9:24PM: With 67% reporting, Love has a 58-42 lead. I’m not sure if there are enough Wiregrass precincts left to make this one close.

8:57PM: With 18% reporting, Love has pulled to a 56-42 lead.

8:43PM ET: With 3% of precincts reporting, Jay Love is leading Harri Anne Smith by 54-46. I’m hoping that Smith can pull off a miracle here (due to the simple fact that Love is the NRCC’s choice), but either candidate will emerge battered. Over in AL-05, Wayne Parker is crushing.