Tag: AL-02

The GOP primary runoff for the open seat of retiring Alabama Rep. Terry Everett has taken a turn for the delightful in recent weeks, with state Rep. Jay Love and state Sen. Harri Anne Smith releasing a string of attack ads that are only getting nastier. It’s gotten so bad that Everett himself is calling on Love and Smith to knock it off:

On Tuesday, retiring Rep. Terry Everett (R), who has stayed neutral throughout the primary race for his Montgomery and southeast Alabama-based seat, called on both candidates to take down their negative ads and end the intraparty split that has developed.

“The tone of the runoff campaign for the 2nd District Congressional seat has taken a highly negative and unacceptable path,” Everett said in a statement. “Our country is facing crucial turning points and the issues confronting America and the people of the 2nd District should take precedence over the attack ads, thinly disguised as comparison ads, that are being aired by both candidates.”

Everett, who has held the seat for eight terms, asked both campaigns to “focus on the issues and behave in a manner that reflects well on our party, our state, and most importantly, the people we represent.”

How bad is it? Bad enough to tilt this R+13.2 district to Democrat Bobby Bright?

Craig Schmidtke, a Dothan oral surgeon who came in third place in the June GOP primary, said Tuesday that Love and Smith are on the verge of driving voters to the Democratic Party with their continued sniping at each other in ads and in news releases.

“It’s getting very ugly and very muddy, and people are just really honestly very fed up,” said Schmidtke, who garnered 20 percent of the primary vote but hasn’t endorsed either candidate in the runoff. “I’ve had many, many people who are die-hard Republicans who have told me personally that they are thinking about voting Democrat for the first time ever. I’m saddened that it’s come to this.”

Love and Smith have thrown the kitchen sink at each other, with each candidate claiming that the other is a tax-raiser. Smith has attacked Love for being tied to big oil and the hand-picked choice of DC politicians (Love is the candidate of choice of the NRCC and Boehner’s posse). Love has fired back that Smith is questioning his Christian credentials:

But, the ad that troubles Love the most is a radio spot bhecause it gets personal. “There’s a radio ad right now kind of questioning my Christianity.”  The beginning of the radio spot says, “He claims he’s a Christian conservative. The truth is Jay Love is not conservative at all.” Love had a strong reaction to that commercial. “I think that’s out of bounds. That’s personal attack in my mind. What hurts is and what’s disappointing is it’s coming from another republican.”  Smith says that’s not the message of her ad at all. “I question whether he really is a conservative – not a Christian. I would never, never question anybody’s faith.”

Love has also charged that Smith has sold out her values to accept money from “gambling” interests — or more specifically, from Country Crossing developer Ronnie Gilley. Gilley was so offended by Love, that he has apparently gone so far as to air his own radio ads featuring country singer George Jones calling Love a “plain old liar”.

This just might be the nastiest GOP House primary of the cycle so far, which is great news for Bobby Bright.

Runoff: July 15th

Another month, another round of elections. Let’s check in with all the races worth watching.

July 15:

• AL-02: A runoff will be held here for the GOP nomination for the seat of retiring Rep. Terry Everett. Jay Love, a state representative from the Montgomery area, lead Dothan-based state Sen. Harri Anne Smith by a 35%-22% margin in the first round of voting. Republicans in DC have closed ranks around Love, but Smith is not going down without a fight, and has released a series of blistering attack ads against Love over tax hikes and — in a possible preview of Democratic attacks to come — using the words of Gov. Bob Riley to hit Love for being tied to “Big Oil”. GOP division? I’m loving it.

  A source close to the campaign of Democrat Bobby Bright says that some in the campaign believe that Smith would be the more formidable opponent, but I suspect that Love’s strength in suburban Montgomery might give him the extra edge he would need in a general election match-up. We’ll see.

• AL-05: The GOP fell just shy of avoiding a runoff for the nomination to contest the seat of retiring Democrat Bud Cramer, with insurance executive and ’94/’96 candidate Wayne Parker scoring 49% to businesswoman Cheryl Baswell Guthrie’s 19%. Baswell Guthrie’s campaign has quite clearly run out of steam, and I don’t expect that Parker will have any difficulty dispatching her in the runoff.
• GA-Sen: The Democratic primary to take on GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss is a bit of a mess. To run down the cast of characters, you’ve got: DeKalb Co. CEO Vernon Jones, a controversial and self-proclaimed Bush Democrat with the worst kind of personal baggage; Dale Cardwell, a former Atlanta broadcast journalist, pole-sitter, and all-around weirdo; businessman and scientist Rand Knight, who has impressed some on the stump but has not raised any significant cash; Josh Lanier, a former senatorial aide and Vietnam vet who is taking a hard-line stance against campaign fundraising; and former state Rep. Jim Martin, who ran an unsuccessful campaign for Lt. Governor in 2006 but is the only candidate in the race who has raised any significant cash.

  Jones would clearly be a disastrous choice for Democrats, and I think he’d hurt Democratic candidates both up and down the ballot if he somehow wins the nomination. Indeed, the most recent poll of the race shows that Jones is in the worst position of all the candidates in a head-to-head match-up with Chambliss. However, his name recognition is high and he’s the only African-American candidate in the crowded field, so chances are that he’ll at least make the run-off, which will be held on August 5th.

• GA-10: Another nutty GOP primary. Many Republicans have not abandoned their distrust of Rep. Paul Broun, who was elected in a run-off last summer over the much better-known state Sen. Jim Whitehead with the help of crossover votes from Democrats. Unsurprisingly, Broun has picked up a challenge from state Rep. Barry Fleming. Crisitunity explains:
  

  The inference that Broun isn’t a ‘real’ Republican because Democrats helped him beat the establishment candidate is laughable, as Broun has one of the most conservative records of all House members. But Broun has established himself as more of a libertarian-leaning maverick, so the local GOP would probably prefer to see a more housebroken representative. Democrat and Iraq War vet Bobby Saxon awaits the victor, although this is an R+13 district where the GOP has to be favored.

  Much like the Cannon-Chaffetz race in Utah, this is one pits an ultra-conservative against another “almost as” ultra-conservative.

• GA-12: For many in the netroots, this is the big event. Crisitunity frames the race as follows:
  

  This is the primary that has garnered the most netroots attention (if a bit belatedly). While this race turns primarily on the demographics of GA-12, there’s also an ideological component, as John Barrow is one of the most conservative Democrats in the House… and unlike the other most conservative House Dems, he’s in a D+2 seat and doesn’t have the excuse of a deep red district.

  State Senator Regina Thomas from Savannah is challenging Barrow from the left. Thomas is African-American and Barrow is white; this is significant in a district that’s 45% African-American and where at least two-thirds of the Democratic electorate is African-American. While that might seem to give Thomas an inherent advantage, most of the local political figures (and some national figures, including Obama) have endorsed Barrow, and Thomas’s money situation is a mystery (we’re still awaiting her first FEC report). Her main impediment is simply low name recognition, especially in Augusta, the other city at the other end of the district. Her strategy seems to be to focus on word of mouth via black churches to get the word out, which will be interesting to see if it works in the face of Barrow’s big bank account.

  Regardless of who wins the primary, this should be a likely hold this cycle, as the Dems face third-tier Republican opposition (either former congressional aide John Stone or former radio talk show host Ben Crystal). This district has been very competitive at the general election level since its creation, though; Barrow won by only 864 votes in 2006, although that’s largely because he was facing Max Burns, the previous GOP representative that Barrow unseated in 2004.

  We should find out Thomas’ pre-primary fundraising soon. If it turns out that most of her money raised is from Democrats.com, then I’d be concerned about her viability.

From the Hill:

Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) has been on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) Red to Blue list for months, but it appears few people knew that.

The DCCC neglected to announce the addition of Bright to the list, but his name was among the 25 candidates already part of the program when the committee announced its new slate of Red to Blue candidates Wednesday.

Turns out that Bright’s been part of the Red to Blue program since February. Who knew?

For reference, I’ve included the full Red to Blue list below the fold.

Red to Blue:

AK-AL: Ethan Berkowitz

AL-02: Bobby Bright

AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick

AZ-03: Bob Lord

CA-04: Charlie Brown

CO-04: Betsy Markey

CT-04: Jim Himes

FL-13: Christine Jennings

FL-21: Raul Martinez

FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas

FL-25: Joe Garcia

ID-01: Walt Minnick

IL-10: Dan Seals

IL-11: Debbie Halvorson

LA-04: Paul Carmouche

MD-01: Frank Kratovil

MI-07: Mark Schauer

MI-09: Gary Peters

MN-03: Ashwin Madia

MO-06: Kay Barnes

NC-08: Larry Kissell

NJ-03: John Adler

NJ-07: Linda Stender

NM-01: Martin Heinrich

NM-02: Harry Teague

NV-03: Dina Titus

NY-13: Mike McMahon

NY-25: Dan Maffei

NY-29: Eric Massa

OH-01: Steve Driehaus

OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy

OH-16: John Boccieri

VA-02: Glenn Nye

VA-11: Gerry Connolly

WA-08: Darcy Burner

WV-02: Anne Barth

WY-AL: Gary Trauner

Emerging Races:

AL-03: Josh Segall

CA-50: Nick Leibham

FL-09: John Dicks

FL-18: Annette Taddeo

IL-06: Jill Morgenthaler

IL-18: Colleen Callahan

IN-03: Mike Montagano

KY-02: David Boswell

MN-02: Steve Sarvi

MN-06: El Tinklenberg

NC-10: Dan Johnson

NJ-05: Dennis Shulman

NV-02: Jill Derby

OH-02: Vic Wulsin

PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper

PA-06: Bob Roggio

PA-15: Sam Bennett

TX-07: Michael Skelly

VA-05: Tom Perriello

VA-10: Judy Feder

McLaughlin and Associates for Jay Love (6/5, likely voters, 5/8 in parens):

Jay Love (R): 60 (33)

Harri Anne Smith (R): 32 (17)

Undecided: 8 (17)

(MoE: ±6%)

Things aren’t looking so good for Harri, which is a shame because I was looking forward to more ads like this one.

Runoff: July 15th

Polls close in Alabama and New Jersey at 8pm Eastern.  We’ll use this thread to follow the results in a number of hot congressional primaries.

Alabama: AL-02 (D & R), AL-05 (R)

Results: Associated Press | AL.com

New Jersey: NJ-Sen (D), NJ-03 (R), NJ-05 (D), NJ-07 (R)

83% of Precincts Reporting

Lautenberg	168,890	62%
Andrews	87,248	32%

Results: Associated Press | NJ.com

11:55PM (David): The AP says there will indeed be a run-off between Wayne Parker and Cheryl Guthrie. There must be plenty of teeth-gnashing at Parker headquarters – he took 49%, just a hair shy of avoiding the run-off outright. Guthrie, meawhile, is far back at 18%. But she’s been waging a very negative campaign lately, which hopefully will continue – and soften up the eventual winner even further for Dem Parker Griffith in the fall. The run-off is July 15th.

10:48PM (David): AL-02 will go to a run-off between Love and Smith. In AL-05, Parker is hovering at 48% with 93% of the votes counted. If he can’t clear 50%, he’ll face Guthrie in a run-off.

10:39PM: Chris Myers just won NJ-03 and Leonard Lance won NJ-07 according to the AP.

10:22PM: The AP is calling NJ-05 for Dennis Shulman!

10:11PM: The AP is calling NJ-Sen for Frank Lautenberg!

9:43PM: The AP is calling AL-02 for Bobby Bright.

9:33PM: Whoops — I can’t believe we forgot about NJ-05 (D). Rabbi Dennis Shulman is leading Camille Abate by 57-34 with 34% reporting.

9:19PM: Some tidbits from Alabama — Bobby Bright is crushing in AL-02 so far, while Jay Love is the early leader on the GOP side. However, Love’s base is in Montgomery, so we should see Smith surge when the Wiregrass region is counted.

9:10PM: Lautenberg is cruising so far. Jack Kelly, the weaker of the two NJ-03 GOP front runners, has a 45-30-25 lead over Justin Murphy and the stronger Chris Myers with 29% reporting. With 8% reporting in NJ-07, Leonard Lance has a 60-19 lead over Kate Whitman.  

Another month, another round of elections. Once again, the Swing State Project brings you the month in races worth watching:

June 3: This is going to be a big day.

• AL-02: With Rep. Terry Everett (R) retiring at the end this term, the GOP field is large and noisy to replace him. The players include: State Rep. Jay Love, state Rep. David Grimes, oral surgeon Craig Schmidtke, TV station executive David Woods, and state Sen. Harri Anne Smith. With such a crowded and well-funded field, a 7/15 runoff is all but inevitable. Watch for Smith and one of Love or Woods to advance to the next round.

  I’m hoping that Smith is the GOP victor here, if for no other reason than the fact that she’s dumber than a sack of hammers.

  On the Democratic side, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright will face off with Alabama NOW President Cheryl Sabel and dentist Cendie Crawley. Bright’s campaign has been slow to get started, whereas Sabel has won a number of endorsements. Still, Bright should probably be okay based on name recognition.

• AL-05: Another open seat here, this one left behind by retiring Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer. State Sen. Parker Griffith of Huntsville is the Democratic front-runner and won’t have any problems in his primary.

  Republicans will decide between insurance executive and ’94/’96 candidate Wayne Parker, businesswoman Cheryl Baswell Guthrie, former state Rep. Angelo Mancuso (a turncoat Democrat), ’06 candidate Ray McKee, and a number of also-rans. Parker is thought to be the favorite, but Guthrie has invested a significant amount of her own resources on the race.

• CA-04: This one should be interesting. With John Doolittle being put out to pasture, Republicans will choose between conservative icon Tom McClintock, a state Senator from southern California, and former Rep. Doug Ose. This has been a bloody and expensive primary, but the winner will still have a big advantage over Democrat Charlie Brown in this R+10.9 district.
• IA-03: Democrats will go to the polls to decide the fate of longtime Rep. Leonard Boswell, who is receiving a primary challenge from former state Rep. Ed Fallon. In a low-turnout affair, anything could happen, but keep in mind that the lone public poll of this race — from Research 2000 in late April — showed Boswell ahead by a wide margin.
• NJ-Sen: A big event. Not content to “wait his turn”, Rep. Rob Andrews is waging a rough primary challenge against Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D). A recent Rasmussen poll gave Lautenberg a 30-point lead here.

  Republicans will choose between ex-Rep. Dick Zimmer, crypto-fascist state Sen. Joseph Pennacchio, and college professor Murray Sabrin, a Ron Paul acolyte.

• NJ-03: Republicans were initially very high on Chris Myers, a Lockheed Martin VP, to replace retiring GOP Rep. Jim Saxton in this South Jersey distrct. However, Myers’ primary against Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly has descended into a squabbling mess, and neither candidate has been able to match the fundraising juggernaut of the Democratic candidate, state Sen. John Adler. I’m rooting for Kelly to win here, but I like Adler’s chances against either Republican.
• NJ-07: The GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Mike Ferguson appears to be up in the air between state Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance and Kate Whitman, the daughter of former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman. It’s unclear to me which candidate would be stronger in the general election. Ex-Summit Councilwoman Kelly Hatfield and Scotch Plains Mayor Marty Marks will also have their names on the ballot.

  State Assemblywoman Linda Stender will be carrying the Democratic banner once again in this tossup district.

• NM-Sen: This open seat race has caused a domino effect all over New Mexico politics, with all three of the state’s House members throwing their hats in the ring.

  Republicans will decide between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. Because of Pearce’s more conservative profile, he would probably be the easier candidate for Democrat Tom Udall to beat in November. Still, the most recent polls show Udall crushing either Republican, so the outcome of the GOP primary may not matter a whole lot for Tom Udall’s chances this November.

• NM-01: With Heather Wilson out of the picture, Democrats are hopeful that they can finally put this D+2.4 district in the bag. The choices: Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich, former state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham and former New Mexico Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron. A a recent poll gave Heinrich a slight lead over Vigil-Giron, but Lujan Grisham has raised and spent a respectable amount.

  Republicans will choose between Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and state Sen. Joseph Carraro. White, a rare strong recruit by the mostly hapless NRCC, is the overwhelming favorite for his party’s nomination.

• NM-02: I’ll be relieved when the roster of players vying for Steve Pearce’s open seat is cut to two. On the Democratic side of the playing field, voters in this district will choose between Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague. McCamley is an impressive orator and campaigner, but Teague, a wealthy oil man, has drawn on his personal wealth to give his campaign a big financial edge here. The buzz I’ve heard is that Teague is well-placed to win the nomination, a fact that seems to be confirmed by Bill Richardson’s recent endorsement of Teague.

  For what it’s worth, Roll Call quoted an anonymous New Mexico GOP strategist who believes that a Teague victory in this R+5.7 seat is “likely” in November — as long as he makes it out of the primary. I take such things with a heavy grain of salt, though.

  The Republicans have a football team-sized field here, including Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman, restaurateur and ’02 candidate Ed Tinsley, retired banker Aubrey Dunn Jr. (a former Democrat), local GOP Chairman C. Earl Greer, and businessman Greg Sowards. Tinsley was regarded as the early front-runner, but the National Association of Realtors PAC has dumped around $1 million in support of Newman, and Dunn has also spent over half a million of his own money on the race. With no public polling, the outcome of this one could be anyone’s guess.

• NM-03: The race to replace Tom Udall in the House is a two-way affair between Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Luján and wealthy home developer Don Wiviott. Wiviott (and other third-string candidates) have been going hard negative on Luján, who appears to have the edge here. Indeed, a recent poll showed Luján with a six-point lead over Wiviott, and Richardson gave him his stamp of approval earlier this week.

  I don’t know or care who the sacrificial GOP lamb is in this D+5.5 district.

June 10:

• ME-01: With Tom Allen hoping to graduate to the Senate, a posse of Dems are vying to replace him, including: Former Common Cause President Chellie Pingree, York County District Attorney Mark Lawrence, former state Senate Majority Leader Michael Brennan, Iraq War vet Adam Cote, and state Sen. Ethan Strimling. Who is the strongest pick here? It beats me. Cote seems to be the most conservative choice, and could sneak in if progressive votes are divided.

  Republicans will pick between former state Sen. Charlie Summers and businessman Dean Scontras, but the Democratic nominee will be heavily favored in the general election in this D+6.2 district.

• SC-02: This is a bit of an oddball race. At a PVI of R+8.9, it’s certainly not on many prognosticators’ radar screens. However, Democrat Rob Miller, an Iraq vet who entered this race in March, has raised $200K and loaned himself another $100K, according to the latest FEC filings. That’s an extremely respectable amount for a Democrat in a red district like this one.

  Miller will face off against retired Air Force officer Blaine Lotz.

• VA-11: A big one. With Tom Davis out of the picture, Democrats are finally making a play for this Dem-trending district. But first, the primary: Fairfax County Chairman Gerry Connolly vs. ex-Rep./ex-state Sen./’05 Lt. Gov. candidate Leslie Byrne. Depending on who you talk to, this race is either neck-and-neck or will go decisively to Connolly.

  The winner will take on Republican Keith Fimian, a political neophyte, but an impressive fundraiser.

June 17:

• MD-04: Grab your popcorn, it’s time for another edge of your seat special election! Oh wait; Donna Edwards is going to win by 50 points.

June 24:

• UT-03: A recent poll shows GOP Rep. Chris Cannon leading former gubernatorial aide Jason Chaffetz by only two points. Cannon has had his share of close calls in the past, but it’s unclear whether we’ll actually get to do the wingnut shuffle in Utah this year.

Another unlikely House district looks like it will be a competitive race. In Alabama 2, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright has announced that he will be running for the seat of retiring Representative Terry Everett (R).  

http://www.al.com/newsflash/re…

The second district has been a solidly Republican district for many elections (Bush 66% in 2004, 61% in 2000). However, it is a historically Democratic district and has a 29% African-American population.

Bright would be a very conservative Demorcatic member – consistent with this district. What is interesting is that for years ambitious politicians in southern districts like this would gravitate to the Republican party – the fact that Bright chose to run as a Democrat is an encouraging sign for the re-emergence of a 50 state/ 435 district strategy.

Mayor Bright was recruited by both Democrats and Republicans to run for the seat (The Mayor’s office is non-partisan).

Chris Cillizza at the WaPo has more thoughts on Bright’s candidacy and the relationship of his choice to the Presidential election:

http://blog.washingtonpost.com…

Ending months of speculation, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright has decided to seek the open seat in AL-02 currently held by retiring Republican Terry Everett. Bright is well-liked in Montgomery and widely credited with the city's recent revitilazation. And while he drew several challengers when running for a third term last summer, Bright was re-elected without a runoff. Bright was first elected mayor in 1999, when he defeated 22-year incumbent and demagogue Emory Folmar.

Bright was the DCCC's top choice for the district and they appear ready to actively support his campaign:

If Bobby Bright is the Democratic candidate, this seat becomes a pickup opportunity, given his record of success. We are invested in growing our majority and have the resources to do it.

Bright will likely have the Democratic nomination to himself, while several Republican legislators and businessmen will be duking it out in the GOP primary. The district has a PVI of R+13, but has shown it’s tendency to split a ticket and support Democrats. Nearly 76% of local office holders in the district are Democrats and statewide candidates like Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks have pulled strong numbers. It’s certainly possible for a Democrat to represent this district in Congress and Bobby Bright will be a strong candidate.

My first diary here at Swing State Project.  I hadn’t seen this mentioned, but Doc’s Political Parlor (which covers Alabama politics) is reporting that Montgomery, AL, Mayor Bobby Bright has apparently decided to run as a Democrat for the open seat in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District (currently held by Terry Everett).

http://www.politicalparlor.net…

Apparently he was going back and forth over whether to run as a Democrat or Republican, the thinking being he’d have an easier time in the general election as a Republican, but an easier time in a primary as a Democrat.  The speculation seems that he’s the Democrat’s best hope for winning the seat, and actually has a decent shot at winning.  It may come down to the region of the district that the GOP nominee comes from (ie. a Montgomery Republican could fare worse against Bright).

Can anyone better-versed in Alabama politics give more insight?

The National Republican Congressional Committee was technically in the red, even before they spent over $400,000 (about 15% of their cash on hand) to help Bob Latta win a special election in Ohio — in a district that Bush carried by a whopping 22% in 2004.  John Boehner, House Minority Leader — the one who thinks American lives are a "small price" to pay for victory in Iraq — explains the money woes of Congressional Republicans thusly:

“Now the money sucks for two reasons,” Boehner said in a Politico interview. “People are mad at the president; they are mad at the party. And then [there is] this whole immigration fight. People just turned off the spigot.”

Boehner is bringing in image consultants and trying to "re-brand" the Republican party.  It's great to see the other guys wasting money (that they don't have) on  image consultants and flimsy attempts to re-brand or re-create their party.  Note: Boehner didn't mention actual policy changes, just a PR campaign.

Here in Alabama, word is out that George Wallace, Jr. is sniffing around the 2nd Congressional District race.  He would join Republicans Jay Love, Greg Wren, Harri Anne Smith and  David Grimes who are already in the AL-02 race.  Come on in George, the water is fine!  The more the merrier, especially since Republican fundraising "sucks."  Y'all go ahead and spend a lot of money in an expensive primary — the NRCC will be there to bail you out next October.  Not!

Of the 202 Republican held seats in Congress, about 90 are districts with a partisan voting index (PVI) or R+10 (like OH-05) or greater.  If the NRCC has to spend $400K per race to hold the other 112 Republican held districts that are as, or less, Republican than OH-05, it will need over $45 million.  That's just to hold the current Republican minority — in a cycle where Republican fundraising "sucks" — starting from a negative $1 million balance only 10 1/2 months before the general election.

This is a good time to be a Democrat — even in Alabama. 

Cross-posted from Left in Alabama.