Tag: Florida

Here’s part four of the second round of congressional races.  Earlier parts are here

Florida has 25 representatives: 16 Republicans and 9 Democrats

Filing deadline is May 2, primary is Aug 26

Of the 22 districts with more than 17% veterans, 12 are in Florida; I think this makes Florida an excellent pickup ground – the veterans, traditionally a very solidly Republican group – are tired of the war and tired of being abused by the powers that be.  Remember – Democrats support the troops, Republicans support the war

District: FL-01

Location The westernmost part of the panhandle, bordering AL, the Gulf of Mexico and including Pensacola

Representative Jeff Miller (R)

First elected  2001

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 77-22

Bush margin 2004 72-29

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised $50K

Current opponents

Joe Roberts

and

Bryan James (no web site)

Demographics Most veterans of any district (21.7%), and the 13th  most Republican district per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-02

Location The middle of the panhandle, bordering AL, GA and the Gulf of Mexico, and including Tallahassee

Representative Allen Boyd (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 54-44

Notes on opponents In 2004, Bee Kilmer raised over $1 million, Boyd just over $2 million

Current opponents Mark Flowers and Robert Ortiz; neither has a web site

Demographics 90th poorest district (median income = $35K), 60th most veterans (15.3%)

Assessment Safe (a safe Dem in a swing seat)

District: FL-03

Location The ‘joint’ where the panhandle meets the main part of the state, including (through some gerrmandering) both parts of Jacksonville and Gainesville.  This district has been the subject of lots of contoversy – it borders the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 24th.  Here:



District          %Black       %Bush 04

03                  49.3          35

04                  13.5          69  

05                   4.5          58

06                  11.9          61

07                   8.8          57  

24                   6.3          55



and the borders of the 3rd are pretty tortured.

Representative Corrine Brown (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 35-65

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 21st poorest district (median income = $30K), 41st most Blacks (49.3%)

Assessment Safe.  The benefit of a gerrymander is a seat where no opponents run

District: FL-04

Location The eastern part of the panhandle, from Tallahassee suburbs to the Atlantic, bordering GA

Representative Ander Crenshaw (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 69-31

Notes on opponents Robert Harms, the 2006 opponent, raised less than $50K

Current opponents :

Robert Harms

and

Jay McGovern

Demographics 30th most veterans (17.1%); 33rd most Republican district

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-05

Location On the Gulf coast, just south of the panhandle

Representative Ginny Brown-Waite (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents John Russell, in 2006, raised less than $100K, Robert Whittel, in 2004, raised about $140K

Current opponents Dave Werder

Demographics 12th most veterans (21.3%)

Assessment In 2004, Russell got outspent 10-1 and still got 40% – that indicates some vulnerability; Brown-Waite also faces a primary challenge.  I can’t find much about Werder….his blog is a bit odd.

District: FL-06

Location A boomerang shaped district in the middle of north Florida

Representative Cliff Stearns (R)

First elected 1988

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, David Bruderly raise $150K to Stearns’ $450K.  Bruderly also ran in 2004 and 2002

Current opponents David Bruderly

Demographics 13th most veterans (18.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-07

Location Atlantic coast of northern FL, from north of St. Augustine to Daytona Beach

Representative John Mica (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents In 2006, John Chagnon raised only $11K

Current opponents :

Faye Armitage

and

James Clyde Malloy

Both look like progressives; Faye actually saw my diary in the last series, and wrote to me about the demographics, asking questions about hte model I used.

Demographics 15th most veterans (17.6%)

Assessment I think there are possibilities.  The district is 9% Black, the Cook PVI is only R+4, and Mica hasn’t faced a serious challenge in 16 years.

District: FL-08

Location More or less the middle of FL, including Orlando

Representative Ric Keller (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 53-46

2004 margin 61-39

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Charlie Stuart raised almost $1 million to Keller’s $1.7 million

Current opponents

Charlie Stuart

Corbett Kroehler

Mike Smith

Quoc Ba Van

Alan Grayson

and

Alexander Fry (no site)

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Another possible pickup.  Stuart nearly did it in 2006, now he has to have better name recognition; and he has another weapon: Keller promised to leave.  See this story

District: FL-09

Location A weirdly shaped district (Oh Gerry! Gerry!) it runs along the Gulf Coast, circles around the 10th CD, and continues, plus it runs east into Central FL, then south – it’s shaped sort of like the number 5, or more like a backwards Z rotated 90 degrees.

Representative Gus Bilirakis (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin NA (but it was his father who held the seat)

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Phyllis Busansky, in 2006, raised $1.4 million to Bilirakis’ $2.6 million

Current opponents

Bill Mitchell

Anita de Palma”

John Dicks

Michael van Hoek

Demographics 18th most veterans (17.2%)

Assessment Another possible pickup – the very fact that there are 4 Democrats running is some indication of that.

District: FL-10

Location The Gulf Coast, near Tampa Bay (across the Bay from Tampa, north of St. Pete), but excluding a narrow strip that is FL-09.

Representative Bill Young (R)

First elected  1970

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised $100K; but this district is getting more competitive.  In many prior years, Young was unopposed.  In 2000, he got 76%. And Young is getting old (born 1940)

Current opponents Samm Simpson , who ran in 2006

Demographics 13th most veterans (18.2%)

Assessment Young is gradually getting vulnerable.  If we get some breaks, it’s possible we could win here.

District: FL-11

Location Tampa and St. Petersburg

Representative Kathy Castor

First elected  2006

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Notes on opponents Eddie Adams raised about $30K

Current opponents Eddie Adams and Tim Fasano

Demographics 55th most Blacks (27.4%)

Assessment Probably safe.  Although Adams is Black, he did quite poorly last time, and I see no reason for him to do better now

District: FL-12

Location Interior Florida, east of Tampa Bay

Representative Adam Putnam (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 70-20 (against two people with no party)

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Notes on opponents None of the recent opponents had money

Current opponents Doug Tudor

Demographics 23rd most veterans (17%)

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-13

Location Gulf coast, from Bradenton to Englewood, interior to Arcadia

Representative Vern Buchanan (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 369 votes out of 237,000

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents Perhaps the most expensive race in 2006 (I haven’t compiled the numbers). Buchanan spent $8 million and his opponent, Christine Jennings, spent $3 million.  Katherine Harris’ former seat.

Current opponents:

Chris Jennings

and

Mike LaFevers (apparently, although his site is down)

Demographics 9th most veterans (19.2%)

Assessment Buchanan is vulnerable, and this year, he may lose (de jure as well as de facto)

District: FL-14

Location Gulf coast, including Naples and Ft. Myers

Representative Connie Mack (R)

First elected 2004

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Notes on opponents Neeld, who ran both in 2004 and 2006, got less than $50K each time

Current opponents :

Larry Byrnes

and

Robert Neeld

and a Republican

Demographics 6th most veterans (19.8%)

Assessment Neeld has failed twice, I know nothing about Byrnes, but it seems like a long shot

District: FL-15

Location Atlantic coast, from Cocoa to Vero Beach

Representative Dave Weldon (R) retiring

First elected  1994

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Bob Bowman, in 2006, raised about $100K to Buchanan’s $900K

Current opponents

Bob Bowman (who appears a bit….errrr….odd; for one thing, he’s a 9/11 conspiracy guy) (according to this comment he is not running)

and

Steve Blythe

Demographics 8th most veterans (19.4%)

Assessment This is a Republican district, but this is a Democratic year.  With an open seat….And no Republicans have declared yet… who knows?

District: FL-16

Location An oddly shaped district, it goes from the Gulf to the Atlantic; it’s narrow at the Gulf (just about Port Charlotte and nothing else), widens in the middle of the state, swings around Lake Okeechobee, then narrows, then widens again at the Atlantic running from Ft. Pierce to Jupiter, then jogging inland to Wellington

Representative Tim Mahoney (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-48

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents Negron, in 2006, raised $800K to succeed Mark Foley

Current opponents At least three

Demographics 11th most veterans (18.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable

District: FL-17

Location Just off the Atlantic (by a mile or so) including North Miami Beach, North Miami, and Hollywood

Representative Kendrick Meek (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 17-83

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 20th most Blacks (55.2%) and very few veterans (7.2%). 29th poorest district (median income = $30K).  The most Democratic district in the South

Assessment Safe

District: FL-18

Location Miami and a narrow strip along the Atlantic north and south of there

Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

First elected  1989

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents Neither recent opp raised $100K

Current opponents Annette Tadeo

Demographics 16th most Latinos (62.7%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  Taddeo should give Ros-Lehtinen a run for her money.

District: FL-19

Location Slightly off the Atlantic from near West Palm Beach to near Pompano Beach

Representative Robert Wexler (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unoppposed

Bush margin 2004 34-66

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Only a primary

Demographics 28th most veterans (16.6%)

Assessment  Safe

District: FL-20

Location Another weirdly shaped district.  What is it shaped like? Well, part of it is like a number 7, with the top running from the Atlantic west to Weston, and the bottom on the Atlantic. Then, atop the 7, it goes back east to the Atlantic again then north a little… ohh… go look at the wiki.

Representative Debbie Wasserman Schulz (D)

First elected  2004 (D)

2006 margin unoppsed

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 36-64

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track, but one of the highest concentrations of Jews of any district.

Assessment Safe

District: FL-21

Location This one is shaped like a ?.  Folks, to appreciate southern FL districting, you really have to look at a map.  Gerry would be proud of these guys, but the Republicans may have overdone it, as they now have several vulnerable seats.

Representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 59-41

2004 margin 73-27 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents :

Raul Martinez (obviously not a finished web site)

and

Richard Allbriton

Demographics 8th most Latinos (69.7%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  From all accounts, Martinez makes this one highly competitive

District: FL-22

Location One of the strangest shaped districts in the country. Go look. It’s south Florida along the Atlantic….more or less.

Representative Ron Klein (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Notes on opponents Klein ousted Clay Shaw; Klein raised $4 million, Shaw $5 million

Current opponents Allen West

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  West does not appear to be a serious threat, but others might be

District: FL-23

Location The eastern and southern coasts of Lake Okeechobee

Representative Alcee Hastings (D)

First elected 1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 24-76

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents  Marion Thorpe

Demographics 43rd fewest Whites (29.4%), 23rd most Blacks (51.2%), 41st poorest (median income = $31K)

Assessment Safe

District: FL-24

Location Atlantic coast, towards the north.

Representative Tom Feeney (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents :

Suzanne Kosmas

Clint Curtis (who ran in 2006)

and

Garv Bhola

Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%)

Assessment  I had thought this a long shot, but see comments (on dailyKos): Kosmas has apparently raised more money than Feeney, and Feeney is tied to some scandals

District: FL-25

Location Southern end of Florida

Representative Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents Joe Garcia

Demographics 17th most Latinos (62.4%), 16th fewest veterans (6%)

Assessment Vulnerable

Summary: I see only one vulnerable Democrat (Mahoney) and as many as 8 at least somewhat vulnerable Republicans

As we wrote back in October, Democrats have been aiming to recruit three solid challengers to dislodge the heavily-entrenched trio of Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-21 and FL-25, respectively) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18).

The first heavy hitter, former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez, threw his hat into the ring against Lincoln Diaz-Balart yesterday.

Are two more challengers on the way?  Local NBC6 political reporter Nick Bogert reports that the Democrats will field a full slate against the Miami-area incumbents:

Democrats hope to take on all three long-time Cuban-American congressional Republicans, Bogert said.

Miami-Dade County party chair Joe Garcia said he will challenge Mario Diaz-Balart, and businesswoman Annette Taddeo will take on Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

Democrats may even set up political action committees to pay for advertisements attacking all three Republican incumbents, Bogert said. He said to expect Republicans to spend a lot to defend those seats.

Garcia, chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party and former Cuban-American National Foundation executive director, is the real deal, and should be an excellent candidate.

This is the first I’ve heard of Annette Taddeo, but her official biography is impressive.

Get ready for some south Florida barn-burners.

This is Part 2 on a series focusing on the Florida State Senate and our efforts to take back the chamber. In Part 1 of the series, the current state of the Florida Senate was discussed, districts were put in categories based on Democratic strength, and our chances of picking up seats in those various categories was discussed.

Part 2 will focus on the “swing” or Category 4 districts for which elections will be held in 2008. These are districts where Gore took between 47-53% of the vote in 2000. There are four of these such districts that will have elections in 2008. They include the 7th, 11th, 13th, and 25th districts. At this time, it looks like Republican incumbents will be running for re-election in all of them, but this could change, particularly if Bill Young (US FL-10) were to retire from Congress. Two Republicans on this list could conceivably run for that seat.

Here is a State Senate Map for your viewing.

There are a couple things to keep in mind. It’s not necessarily true that these will be our best pickup opportunities in 2008. There is at least one race that I know of in Category 5 that surely will be a prime target for Democrats in 2008, probably moreso than at least a couple of these. Category 5 races and other possibilities will be discussed in Part 3.

Also keep in mind the Democratic performance is based on Gore’s results from 2000. The categories do not reflect on Nader’s vote, which could possibly add to our total. In many districts, demographics or voter trends have changed since 2000. In some cases like the 25th district, as I discuss below, the area has trended more Democratic. In other districts, like the 11th, the area may be trending more Republican, based on other recent elections.

Finally, one thing that all these Republican incumbents have in common is that they were first elected in 2002, a year that favored Republicans in the state and nationally. This was the year Jeb Bush went on to beat Democrat Bill McBride 56 – 43% in the Governor’s race. This likely gave lower-tier candidates a boost by several points. Unfortunately for us, many of these districts were open that year.

But now on to the future, which is looking very bright for Democrats. For a quick reminder, the Senate currently has 26 Republicans and 14 Democrats. We would need to pick up 6 seats for a tie and seven seats for a majority. We have until 2010 to take back the chamber before redistricting and many more seats will be open or contested in 2010, since senate elections are rotational, with half contested every two years.

25th district

Incumbent: Jeff Atwater 2000

Democratic Performance

Gore: 50%

Bush: 48%

Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures 2002 (Open)

Atwater (R): 55%, $748,000

Butterworth (D): 45%, $401,000

HD-25 Wiki

This is a district we can win and it has turned increasingly blue over the past few years. Al Gore actually won this district in the 2000 election and on top of that 2% went for Nader. It takes in the 22nd Congressional district, which was won by Democrat Ron Klein in 2006. In addition, the 22nd district actually went for Kerry stronger than it did for Gore, with both winning it. The district consists of eastern Palm Beach and Broward counties, including West Palm Beach, Boynton and Pompano Beaches, as well as the eastern stretches of Ft. Lauderdale and Oakland Park. Atwater won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election against the popular former Attorney General, Bob Butterworth. Atwater outspent Butterworth $748,000 to $400,000 in that election, a likely cause of our election loss, as well as the Republican-favored sentiment that year. If Atwater were to win re-election in 2008, he would likely become the Republican Majority Leader for the 2008-2010 session. In 2004, he faced no opponent in his second election to the Senate. Previously, he had won one term in the State House.

Robert Ostrov, an attorney, has already stepped up to challenge Atwater and former State Senator Skip Campbell and 2006 Democratic Attorney General nominee is considering a run. If Campbell were to run, he would offer a strong challenge with financial resources. In 2006, he actually won the district in his campaign for attorney general. He has also hinted that polls show that he could beat Atwater. Out of all the Category 4 seats, I would put this seat as our best pickup opportunity, especially if Campbell runs. Our major problem would be facing the Atwater fundraising machine. He’s already raised $564,000, of which $96,000 has been spent. Any Democratic candidate would need to be able to raise a good amount of money to compete. Campbell would likely be able to meet that challenge, so he definitely would be a good recruit. Our candidate would also likely have national Democratic sentiment and a strong candidate leading our ticket that would benefit them in this Democratic-leaning district in a year with no statewide races. I really think we can win this district and I would put it at “tossup” with a Campbell candidacy.

13th district

Incumbent: Dennis Jones

2000 Democratic Performance

Bush: 48%

Gore: 48%

Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures

2002 (Open)

Jones (R): 60%, $436,000

Kennedy (D): 40%, $53,000

HD-13 Wiki

The district consists completely of western Pinellas County and takes in parts of the 9th (Clearwater) and 10th (Seminole, Largo, and Dunedin) Congressional districts. Jones won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election and subsequently served as Majority Leader from 2002-2004. In his election win, he benefitted from the coattails of the state ticket and outspent the Democrat more than 8:1, so he has never been given a strong challenge for the seat. He has yet to face re-election in the Senate, though he won 11 terms in the State House. Jones has reported raising $153,000, of which $17,000 has been spent.

As of yet, no Democrat has entered the race. Jones has a long history in the district, so from that perspective challenging him could be difficult. However, there are many unknowns in this district. Despite being heavily outspent in 2002, Kennedy was still able to pull in 40%, so I would put that as our cellar support. If we financed a challenge against Jones, we could do much better than that and maybe even pull out a surprise, as Jones hasn’t faced an election since 2002 and doesn’t have the biggest fundraising numbers right now. It has also been widely rumored that Bill Young in the 10th district may retire and DCCC is poised to field a strong challenge to Gus Bilirakis in the 9th district. Democratic runs in those Congressional seats and national Democratic sentiment in 2008 could help a challenge in the state senate seat. This is a race we might want to start looking at.

7th district

Incumbent: Evelyn Lynn

2000 Democratic Performance

Bush: 51%

Gore: 47%

Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures

2002 (Open)

Lynn (R): 57%, $274,000

Ward (D): 43%, $226,000

HD-07 Wiki

The district consists of parts of Clay, Marion, Putnam, and Volusia Counties. It takes in pieces of the 3rd, 6th, 7th, and 24th Congressional districts. Lynn won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election battle in a year that favored Republicans, statewide and nationally. She had also served in the State House for four previous terms before running for the Senate. In the 2002 election, both parties spent about the same amount of money, but it's likely Lynn received a boost of a few points for statewide Republican sentiment. So far she’s amassed nearly $195,000 in fundraising this time, $13,000 of which has been spent. She raised around $136,000 of that money in the third quarter this year.

At the moment, there is no challenger in the district. The seat leans Republican for 2008, assuming Lynn runs. However, given the nature of the district, if a strong Democrat were to step up that could raise a large amount of money, then we could make this race competitive, especially since the presidential ticket will likely favor a Democrat, which could boost us up a couple points over that 2002 result. Some other factors that could favor us are a strong challenge to Feeney in the 24th district (New Smyrna Beach, Edgewater) by Suzanne Kosmas and strong spending and a big grassroots presence by Democrat Corrine Brown in the 3rd congressional district, which encompasses most of the state senate district. This is definitely somewhere where we should be able to compete and since Lynn hasn’t faced a challenge since 2002 this is a district we might want to challenge in 2008, when national sentiment should favor us.

11th district

Incumbent: Mike Fasano

2000 Democratic Performance

Bush: 49%

Gore: 49%

Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures

2002 (Open)

Fasano (R): 63%, $422,000

Cannon (D): 37%, $104,000

2004(I)

Fasano (R): 65%, $272,000

Mattingly (D): 36%, $4, 600

HD-11 Wiki

The bulk of the population resides in western Pasco and northern Pinellas counties, with some population in western Hernando and Citrus counties. The district is within the 5th, 9th, and 10th Congressional districts. Bush did win those districts by greater margins in 2004 than 2000, so it’s possible the area may be trending more for the Republicans. Fasano first won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election in a year that favored Republicans, statewide and nationally. In that election, Fasano outspent the Democratic candidate 4:1 and basically in 2004 the Democrat spent nothing. Fasano gained 2% on his performance in 2004, in another year that favored Republicans statewide and nationally. Before entering the Senate, he won four terms in the State House.

There are currently two Democratic challengers for 2008, Richard Skandera and Fred Taylor, a Vietnam veteran, who applied in December to run. Neither has reported raising any money yet, though Taylor just entered the race. Fasano has raised $183,000, $2,400 of which has been spent. I would put this seat as likely Republican, assuming Fasano runs. Like several of the others in this category though, we’ve never really given the Republican a real challenge and if 2008 favors Democrats, then we could have a chance if we field a strong challenger. Other factors that could help our nominee would be Bill Young retiring in the 10th congressional district, which consists of the population center of Palm Harbor. A strong performance in the 9th district against Republican Gus Bilirakis could also help us in this district.

The End

That's it for this edition. I think we should definitely compete in all of the above districts. In 2008, we are going to have a strong candidate, who I expect to win Florida, leading our national ticket and there will be no statewide elections. This by itself would give us an advantage over 2002, when Republicans were elected in open seats upon a Jeb Bush route in the Governor's race. Republicans will no longer have this luxury, so we should make sure we take advantage of it and give them the challenges of their lives. In 2006, now State Senator Charlie Justice won in one of these Category 4 "Swing" districts. It's clear sentiment and momentum are now favoring us and in 2008 we can win more of these seats. If anyone has anything to add or comments, that would be greatly appreciated.

Florida Senate Wiki Pages  

This data is for the Florida Senate. Information on the Florida House Numbers can be found here.

The Florida Senate currently has a 26 – 14 Republican majority. This means we need to pick up 6 seats to reach 50% in the chamber and 7 seats to win back the majority. We have two election cycles to accomplish this, but we will only have an opportunity at each Senate seat once, since only about half of the districts are up for grabs in any given election (except for years ending in 2).

Something that should be noted is that winning Senate seats can be much more difficult than winning House seats. Open seat contests are less frequent. In some cases we are facing entrenched incumbents who have already served for many years. In other cases, the districts are served by high-ranking officials (President, Pro Tempore, Majority Leader, etc..) and finally often it is the case we must take on candidates who were very popular in their State House districts. For all these reasons, I think our chances at taking back the Senate are lower than the chances of taking back the House, though it's close because we only need six or seven more seats in the Senate. Nevertheless, it’s a good idea to take a look at the partisan appeal of the districts first to see where our best chances of potential victory could be. In part 2, I’ll take a look at individual districts in the swing categories, examining past performance by our candidates in the most recent elections, possible retirements, and our top likely targets.

For reference, here is a district map of the Florida Senate.

2000 Democratic Performance (Presidential)

# x 2008 signifies the number of races that will be contested in 2008 Statewide Performance: 49 %

Category 1: 70 – 100, 3 districts (2 x 2008), 3 D, 0 R

Category 2: 60 – 69, 8 districts (5 x 2008), 8 D, 0 R

Category 3: 54 – 59, 2 districts (1 x 2008), 2 D, 0 R

Category 4: 47 – 53, 7 districts (4 x 2008, all R), 1 D, 6 R

Category 5: 41 – 46, 12 districts (6 x 2008), 0 D, 12 R

Category 6: 31 – 40, 5 districts (1 x 2008), 0 D, 5 R

Category 7: 0 – 30, 3 districts (1 x 2008), 0 D, 3 R

Due to gerrymandering, we already face a field of seats that is stacked against us despite the even split in the state. Democratic voters have mostly been thrown into the 11 districts that make up the first two categories, while Republicans have been spread out mostly into Category 5 districts, which favor the Republican Party. Democrats hold all 15 seats in the lean-Democratic districts and one seat (Charlie Justice in the 16th district) in Category 4. Republicans, likewise, hold all 20 seats that lean to their side. They also hold six of the seven swing districts in Category 4. Basically, if we want to win back the Senate we are going to have to win as many of these as possible and for every seat we don’t win in Cat. 4, we’ll have to win one in Cat. 5. Remember we need to take six seats from the Republicans.

Democrats have shown the ability to compete in some of the category 5 races, so certainly we could a have a shot at a few of these. In 2006, for example, the Democratic candidate lost by only four points 52 % – 48 % in an open seat contest in the 10th district (Gore – 41%). In this case, Democrats faced very controversial Republican Ronda Storms. In 2010, I’m sure Democrats will also give her another strong challenge.

If seats open up on the Republican side our chances of winning seats will naturally increase. In the 25th district (Cat. 4) represented by Jeff Atwater, Democrats did not even bother to field a challenger in his most recent re-election battle in 2004. Several high-profile Democrats may be stepping up to take him on in 2008, however, and it looks like there is a good chance he could be taken down if former state Sen. Skip Campbell runs. If well-financed Democrats were to step up in any of the incumbent-held districts, then that would give us better chances of winning. More on this in Part 2.

That finishes this part of the analysis. Now we have some data on districts, so we can make better judgments on what districts we should be challenging in the future. In part 2, I’ll actually take a closer look at the individual districts that will have elections in 2008, particularly in categories 4 and 5.

Election results can be found here and FPC Wiki Pages are here.

Category 1: 18, 29 (x), 33 (x)

Category 2: 01 (x), 19 (x), 30, 31 (x), 32, 34, 35 (x), 39 (x)

Category 3: 06, 27 (x)

Category 4: 07 (x), 11 (x), 13 (x), 14, 16, 25 (x), 28

Category 5: 03 (x), 09 (x), 10, 12, 15 (x), 17 (x), 20, 21 (x), 22, 23 (x), 24, 26

Category 6: 02, 08, 36, 37 (x), 38

Category 7: 04, 05 (x), 40

Cross-posted from Flapolitics.

I was reading Mike Lux’s post at Open Left on Congressional districts and why the Democratic caucus votes the way it does when an idea popped in my head. I was thinking why don’t we do something like this for the Florida legislature, but instead use it to see how we can take back the legislature.

In this edition, I’ve compiled the Florida House seats list. Like Lux did with Congress, I put the Florida House seats into seven categories based on Democratic Party performance. Unfortunately good data is not available for 2004 performance on the presidential level in individual state house districts, so I’ve had to stick with 2000 data, which is provided by the government. Some districts have seen demographic changes, particularly in central and southern Florida, so this list is not going to be completely accurate, but it will give us an idea of what we should be thinking about when we choose what seats we want to go after for the next two cycles.

Let’s keep in mind the goal is taking back the Florida House by 2010, so first of all we can have good policies again in our state. On the national level it also might interest outsiders, because if we win a chamber in government, then Democrats would have a say in the redistricting process that will affect the maps of Florida’s likely to be 27 Congressional seats for the next decade. It is obviously very important to the Democratic Party both inside the state and on the national level that we succeed in winning one chamber by 2010.

So now let’s get on to how we win back the Florida House. Currently as it stands, Republicans hold 78 seats to our 42 seats. That’s a 36-seat majority, meaning we need to win 18 seats to move into a tie with Republicans. Luckily we do have two more election cycles to accomplish this task. In 2006, we got off to a good start (if I remember correctly we picked up six seats?). Then in 2007, we built on that momentum, winning the 49th district (Cat. 3) seat in a special election.

2000 Democratic Performance

Statewide: 49 %

Category 1: 70 – 100: 20 districts, 20 D, 0 R

Category 2: 60 – 69: 10 districts, 10 D, 0 R

Category 3: 54 – 59: 5 districts, 5 D, 0 R

Category 4: 47 – 53: 19 districts, 5 D, 13 R

Category 5: 41 – 46: 40 districts, 1 D, 40 R

Category 6: 31 – 40: 19 districts, 1 D, 18 R

Category 7: 0 – 30: 7 districts, 0 D, 7 R

From this data we can see that as Democrats we already have the odds stacked against us. Despite having a 49 – 49 % split in the 2000 elections, the Republicans gerrymandered the districts to give a 66 – 35 district lean advantage to the Republicans, with 19 tossup districts in the middle. Even if we carry every tossup district, that still gives us only 54 seats. So to get to the magic 60 number, giving us 50% of seats, we must win an additional 6 seats from the lean Republican categories (We already have two of these, so four more), assuming we win every tossup and every lean-Democratic district. At the moment, we do hold every lean-Democratic district, but we only hold 5 of the 18 tossup districts. We hold two Republican favored districts, one in a 38% and the other in a 44% Democratic performing district. We therefore need to win at least four more of the Republican favored districts and for every district we don’t win in Category 4, we will need to win additional ones in Category 5.

From this I would say a central part of our strategy should definitely be going after those tossup districts. We really must win quite a few of those if we want to win back the House. It also should be noted that Democrats performed quite well actually in several of the Category 5 districts in 2006. We actually won the 107th district in 2006 and two of our four closest losses were from the 48th and 70th districts, where we captured 48 % and 49 % of the votes, whereas Gore pulled in only 45 % and 43 % in those districts, respectively. I’m not going to speculate on the possible causes of this movement here, though it could be any sort of things (good candidates, demographic changes, bad Republicans, statewide sentiment, etc…). The main good news though is that many Cat. 5 districts are certainly within reach for Democrats.

Another thing we should look at going into 2008 and 2010 are seats that will open up due to term limits. I looked at this particularly for the tossup districts. In 2008, we will see four open seats, one currently held by a Democrat and three by Republicans. In 2010, there will be five open contests, all seats currently held by Republicans. This gives us eight golden opportunities to pick up seats over the next two election periods. Like with the case for lean-Republican districts, just because a seat is not open does not mean Democrats are not able to compete. In 2006, the Democratic candidate captured 49% of the vote in the 83rd district against a Republican incumbent running for a 3rd term in office. Of course the open seats probably offer a better chance at victory for Democrats in most cases, but if we compete with a strong candidate and finances, then we can really compete in any of the Category 4/tossup districts and likely some of the Category 5 ones, as well. In particular, there are ten open seats that will be fought for in Cat. 5 districts. There will also be a special election in 2008 in the 38th district, a Cat. 5 district. We may have a chance there, especially given Bob Allen’s scandal-ridden resignation that opened this seat up.

Overall, from this data for 2008 I would say we definitely want to take a good look at those three open Republicans seats and look at defending our own. We’re also going to have to make a strong effort to win some of the other tossup districts and take a deeper look at several of the Cat. 5 races to see which ones will offer us our best chances of pickups. Remember, demographics have been changing in many of the districts, so those would be the ones to really look at. As an example, we know the 119th district (Cat. 5) where Michael Calderin is running has been growing in independent registration, while Republican registration has been declining most rapidly. Gore took 43 % in the district, but if that election were held again today perhaps that performance would be 45 % or higher. Of course it’s difficult to say, but it’s something to think about.

Here are the categories with their respective districts and open seats for 2008 are indicated for Categories 4 and 5, where we’ll surely be making several of our prime targets in 2008. For information on state house representatives, you can visit the Florida Progressive Coalition's Wiki Page and for information on the district performance see here.

Category 1: 08, 39, 55, 59, 78, 84, 86, 90, 93, 94, 95, 96, 98, 103, 104, 105, 106, 108, 109, 118

Category 2: 14, 15, 23, 27, 58, 88, 89, 92, 99, 100

Category 3: 36, 49, 53, 85, 97

Category 4: 09 (open-D), 22, 26, 28, 35 (open), 44, 45, 46, 50, 51, 52, 65 (open), 69, 81 (open), 83, 87, 91, 101, 120

Category 5: 03, 10 (open), 20, 21 (open), 24, 25 (open), 29, 30, 31 (open), 32 (special election 2008), 33, 34, 37 (open), 38, 40 (open), 41, 42 (open), 43, 47, 48, 54, 56 (open), 57, 60, 61, 63, 64, 66, 68, 70, 71, 72, 73, 79 (open), 80 (open), 82, 107, 114, 116, 119

Category 6: 05, 06, 07, 11, 16, 17, 62, 67, 74, 75, 76, 77, 102, 110, 111, 112, 113, 115, 117

Category 7: 01, 02, 04, 12, 13, 18, 19

Well now we know that there is at least one thing Republican crumb-bum C.W. “Bill” Young is good at: wasteful earmarking and spending.

Republican hypocrisy well at work.

From The Hill:

Senior Republican appropriators in the Senate have collected more money in earmarks than any other members of Congress, even though President Bush and GOP leaders have forcefully criticized “pork-barrel spending.”

Not only have these lawmakers defied their leaders, they have also taken a much greater share of the pot set aside for rank-and-file Republicans than have senior Democrats. As a result, some on the Hill are grumbling privately that GOP appropriators are “not only the kings of pork, they’re outright hogs,” in the words of one Senate Republican aide.

…

Rep. Bill Young (Fla.), the ranking Republican on the Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, is the second-biggest recipient of earmarked funds in the House, securing $161 million.

…

Young said that senior Defense Department officials come to him with requests for the military at large because he is the former chairman of the Appropriations Defense Subcommittee and the panel’s current ranking member.

Wow, who knew it could be so fun to be a Congressman.

Oh yeah and this comes from the same Bill Young who was one of only twelve US House members to vote against compensation for family members who lost their loved ones in a US Embassy bombing. That's right, only twelve Congressional representatives voted against it and Bill Young was one of them. Mind you, this is a D+1 district.

Rep. Bill Young: Good at wasteful spending for defense lobbyists, bad for everyone else.

Cross-posted from Flapolitics.com
http://www.flapoliti…

Here are my rankings with explanations for November.

1. FL-08 (R+3), Incumbent Ric Keller

Keller is facing flak over his flip-flopping and parsing on Iraq. He’s also been criticized for flip-flopping on his term limits promise. Keller voted against Stem Cell Research, voted against SCHIP and children’s health care, against negotiation of prescription drugs, and has voted in lockstep with Republicans on a host of issues taking our liberties away. These terrible votes aren’t the only thing making Keller the most vulnerable Republican in Florida. The district has only a slight tilt to Republicans and has been leaning more toward Democrats in recent years. Unions have also launched ads as part of a $1.5 million campaign against Keller for his anti-children’s health care vote.

Keller will face challengers from both parties in the race, undermining the criticism he has faced. On the Democratic side, Mike Smith and 2006 candidate Charlie Stuart, have both jumped into the race. Whoever wins our primary is going to have a great shot at victory in the 8th district.

2. FL-24 (R+3) Incumbent Tom Feeney

This is another district that has been leaning more towards the Dems in recent years. It doesn’t hurt that Feeney has been absolutely crazy, including his calls to privatize Social Security. I mean this is the guy who walks around with a Conservative Score Card every day in his pocket. He’s been involved in scandal after scandal, including connections with convicted felon Jack Abramoff. Polls now show him under 50% support, in fact, at a low of 42% against Democratic challenger Suzanne Kosmas, with our candidate only having 19% name recognition. Speaking of our candidate, she’s a former state legislature and should be able to raise the money to compete. Feeney has also been the target of a $1.5 million ad campaign by Unions for his vote against SCHIP. Feeney is probably toast in 2008.

3. FL-15 (R+3) Incumbent Dave Weldon

Weldon kind of goes a long with Feeney. They are both out of their minds. I wonder how they were even elected, if people knew what they were getting at the time. Get this though, in 2006 Weldon faced an underfunded 9/11 Conspiracy Theorist in his reelection bid and won with only 56% of the vote. Now that says something. Prospects are looking bright for the future of this district. Darren Soto won a special election in a previously Republican-held house seat in Kississimee, which also takes in this US House district, earlier this year. The recent influx of Puerto Rican voters may help a Democrat win this seat. Unfortunately, there is no current high-profile Democratic challenger in the race. Steve Blythe is running, however, but it’s yet to be seen how his campaign will go. Personally, I would like someone who is going to be able to raise the funds necessary to win. We really need to get rid of Weldon.

4. FL-25 (R+4) Incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart

Prospects also are looking brighter in this district. See here and here. Polls taken in the district have shown health care and Iraq to be the major issues of concern, not Cuba. Mario has straddled the hardline with the Bush Presidency. He’s continuously voted for more war and more surge. He’s voted against children’s health care and he’s voted against stem cell research. Currently, we have no challenger but the Draft Joe Garcia movement is off to a strong start. Should Joe get into the race, this would instantly become a very competitive race. Without a top-tier challenger, it would fall to less competitive.

5. FL-21 (R+6) Incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart

This race is pretty much ditto the above except Raul Martinez is the potential candidate. This district also tilts a little more toward the Republicans than the 25th and probably hasn’t seen the recent growth like the 25th district that would favor the Dems.

6. FL-13 (R+4) Incumbent Vern Buchanan

Tempers still flare over the disputed 2006 election. I think that was probably our best chance of picking up the seat, but 2008 could offer a similar battle. Our candidate from last time, Christine Jennings, is running again and has already earned support from Emily’s List. The area has also seen a lot of growth and particularly that in Sarasota favors the Democrats, where we’ve picked up county seats recently. We have a good shot certainly of picking up this district, if the money is there for another run.

7. FL-18 (R+4) Incumbent Ros-Lehtinen

This race is similar to the other Miami districts. At the moment, however, there are no high-profile rumored Democratic candidates. If we can get a good candidate, then this race would be competivie.

8. FL-10 (D+1) Incumbent Bill Young

This race all depends on Bill Young retiring. If he retires, then this race instantly moves up to our #1 best pickup opportunity. If he doesn’t retire, then it’s probably over. For now, I’ll put this seat here until we hear more. As a note, State Senator Charlie Justice has been rumored to be running for the Democrats and he would be a formidable candidate.

9. FL-05 (R+5) Incumbent Brown-Waite

We still need a credible challenger. Either way it will be an uphill battle. Brown-Waite won 60% of the vote in 2006. She has faced the $1.5 million ad campaign though, targetted by Unions for her vote against children’s health care.

10. FL-09 (R+4) Gus Bilirakis

I just don’t see how we’re going to win this one, if we lost it in 2006 in an open race. Many candidates are lining up to take on the Republican incumbent, however, and the first reelection bid is always the most difficult, so we’ll see if we make this a good challenge.

All Others

FL-01, FL-04, FL-06, FL-07, FL-12, FL-14

We’re probably not going to win these, but it never hurts to try.

Overall, we still need candidates in FL-04, FL-06, FL-18, FL-21, and FL-25

I predict we will pick up 3 seats in 2008.

What are your rankings/predictions?

Over the weekend, people have been talking, activists have been working, and momentum has been building. Now it’s time to act.

It all started a few weeks ago. Joe Garcia, who serves as Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chairman and Cuban American National Foundation Executive Director (as well as a host of other activities), was interviewed by The Hill. In the interview, he said he would consider running for Congress in the 25th district, if he was asked to.

So last week I posed the idea, “FL-25: Republicans in Trouble, Should We Draft Joe Garcia?”

Basically, the Republican machine and stronghold in Miami-Dade is falling apart. What were once solidly Republican-leaning traditional Cuban-American districts are now becoming integrated districts with immigrants from around other parts of the US. And the new generation of Cuban-Americans from the districts is not buying the old Republican rallying tactics of anti-Cuba rhetoric. Polls taken in the district have shown health care and Iraq as the major issues. Republican registration is down and once solidly safe local Republican incumbents are facing the challenges of their lives, including from the Florida Netroot’s own Michael Calderin, in the 119th Florida house district. With the current political winds in our favor, we need to take advantage of this situation.

…

So the questions is, should we start asking? Should we draft Joe Garcia into the race?

Word started spreading all around Democratic circles in Miami and Florida, in the media and in the blogs.

From local Florida blog Stuck on the Palmetto:

I’ve liked Joe Garcia ever since I heard him hand Henry Gomez his a** during a debate on one of the babalu Radio Hours. It really was a thing of beauty and revealed Garcia to be articulate and forward thinking, particularly on Cuba foreign policy matters, and not mired in the failed policies of the past 40 some odd years.

[Listen to Joe debate hysterical Cuban-American hardliner Henry Gomez here. Let the broadcast download and advance it to about 19:00 when the conversation begins. The debate ends abruptly when Henry mutes Joe at 54:00.]

Joe has said he would run if he was asked. Let’s ask. Let’s start tossing out relics of the past and start looking forward.

A facebook page was created and already has over 50 members!

James L right here at Swing State Project also covered the election prospects of this run, in “FL-25: A Foe for Mario?”“

I think this could be a fun race, and I don’t think that the GOP is well-situated to appeal to the Cuban community in the long term, where the Iraq War and S-CHIP are as big of a set of concerns as they are everywhere else.  And, let’s face it, the GOP’s Latino outreach hasn’t been exactly spectacular in recent years.

Still more commented at the draft blog, Gloria wrote:

Joe Garcia is exactly what we need for the Democrats to get a voice in South Florida. I am totally behind this effort and I have personally told him to run in the past and am doing so again – Please Joe, run run run and give some other voice a chance to be heard besides one of the Diaz Balart brothers.

…

Even though I live in Lincoln’s district, Mario’s is next door and we have to start somewhere and Joe Garcia – would be great.

And Sandra said:

I will be another HUGE supporter of Joe Garcia. I write Mario Diaz Balart constantly and I am frustrated and sick of him ignoring the needs of his constituents He just repeats the talking points and the lies of the administration. I will be more than happy to volunteer my time if he decides to run.

We desperately need a change.

Meanwhile, a Republican chimed in:

I am a lifelong republican and a conservative yet I am also a Cuban-American who believes that we need new blood and ideas on the debate over Cuba policy.

Go Joe!

And one of the latest comments comes from Bonnie:

As a voter in the 25th, I urge you to run for Congress so that we will finally have a rational voice. You will have my vote and can count on my help as a volunteer.

Then Joe responded!

On Friday, Joe spoke with Nicole Sandler on WINZ radio (Media Player). In the interview, which you can listen to at the link above, Joe said he was considering the decision with his family and would likely make a decision in a couple months. He spoke positively on the Party’s efforts to get challengers running in all three districts currently represented by Republicans. On a side note, he also endorsed the idea of Publicly-Financed Elections in the interview. I think many of us couldn’t agree more.

If this wasn’t enough, in an email sent out by Joe Garcia himself to the Miami-Dade Democratic Party’s mailing list, Joe had this to say:

“While I am still far from making a decision, I do want to say that your kindness and support are very humbling and much appreciated!”

I was extremely thrilled to hear this from Joe. He would make a terrific Congressman. No longer in FL-25 would we have a vote for more war. No longer would we have a vote against SCHIP and children’s health care. No longer would there be a vote against life-saving Stem Cell Research. We could actually send a Congressman to Washington who would vote for allowing negotiation for prescription drugs. We would have a Congressman who would support publicly-financed elections. But most importantly, we would add a progressive voice in Washington, who isn’t afraid to say the truth.

So now the real fun part begins. We need to let Joe know if enters this race that he will have real grassroots support to win the election. As an experienced leader, who has served his community all his life, who has stood up for those in need of help, I know he would be a worthy Congressman. But we need to step up and let Joe know we want him in Congress. Joe said he would consider running if asked. Well true to his word he is considering. Now we need to ask him to run.

The Draft Joe Garcia website/blog has been gradually launched over the weekend. Now it’s about up and running at full speed.

An Act Blue Page has also been set up and the goal is to reach 100 contributors of $5.00 each. The amount has two benefits. It’s small, so it’s not going to break anyone’s piggy bank, but it will also have an impact well beyond its monetary value. It’s about showing Joe the grassroots wants him to run and he will have our support should he enter the race. The goal is actually a bit ambitious, but I think we can reach it. This victory would be particularly sweet for the Florida netroots, which has been growing very rapidly over the last couple of years. So please contribute to get Joe in the race, if you are able.

Why I Ask Joe to Run

The reason why I’m asking for Joe to run is quite simple. Miami and surrounding counties are changing. No longer are these areas the Republican strong-holds that they once were. The 25th district’s constituency simply does not reflect the right-wing and Bush rubber-stamp votes being made by Mario Diaz-Balart. So 2008 offers us the chance to pick up the district and we need someone to run who is going to stand up for basic Democratic Party and progressive principles, like expanding health care coverage, voting to get money out of politics, and ending the war in Iraq. This is our chance to take back this seat, but not only that, send someone to Washington who is going to do the right thing for the people of the district, Florida, and America. Recently in November, Joe led Democrats to record victories in Miami-Dade elections. Now let’s lead him to victory, but first we have to get him in and build a strong grassroots network for the campaign.

Will you ask Joe to run? Will you add your voice to the many already asking Joe to give Mario the political challenge of his life?

Four Things You Can Do Right Now

Contribute $5.00
Sign The Petition
Facebook Page
Draft Website

As SSP readers know, we’ve been keeping our eyes on the Miami area for Democratic pick-up opportunities in the House next year.  In particular, Democrats are hoping to draft former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez and Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chair and Cuban American National Foundation Executive Director Joe Garcia to run against the Diaz-Balart brothers.  Both of these guys would be tough opponents in districts where Democrats haven’t put up much of a fight in years.  And now, from the Miami-Dade Democratic Executive Committee blog, comes the response:

For those not on the email list of the Miami-Dade County Democratic Party, here’s what Joe Garcia said in response to the rush of interest in drafting him for Congress: “While I am still far from making a decision, I do want to say that your kindness and support are very humbling and much appreciated!” […]

Garcia’s email concluded with mention of the new web site draftgarcia.com, so I think it’s safe to say he’s not against running against Mario Diaz-Balart in District 25. In an interview Friday with Nicole Sandler on WINZ AM940, he said it was a matter of convincing his wife and young daughter that it was right for the family.

Expect a decision by the second half of January, he said. […]

Meanwhile, there’s a growing web site to draft Raul Martinez, former mayor of Hialeah, to run for Congressional District 21, the seat held by Lincoln Diaz-Balart. You can hear Joe Garcia encouraging Martinez to run, in that clip on WINZ. Again, a decision likely in January.

Garcia said he knows of a handful of possible candidates to run against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Congressional District 18, and he’s encouraging them to consider it strongly.

I don’t know about you, but I’m looking forward to having two or perhaps even three barn-burning races in South Florida to follow next year.

Update: Over in the diaries, Progressive America has much more info on FL-25 and Joe Garcia.