Tag: Florida

Last month, we wrote about the DCCC’s efforts to recruit challengers for the south Florida districts represented by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and the infamous Diaz-Balart brothers (Mario and Lincoln).  Democrats are looking to line up former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez to take on Lincoln, and he is supposed to make a decision sometime this month on the race.

But what of the other two districts?  I have yet to hear a rumored candidate to take on Ros-Lehtinen, but there is one name floating around to take on Mario Diaz-Balart: Joe García, former executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation and current Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chair.  (You can read more about him here and here.)  Garcia has been working to recruit strong challengers in these districts, but even went so far as to suggest that he could step up to the plate in a recent interview:

Miami-Dade County Democratic Party Chairman Joe Garcia and other Miami Democrats insist the hard-line approach to Cuba taken by Diaz-Balart is wearing thin, while GOP strategists say those policies remain popular.

Garcia is seeking candidates who are well-respected in the Cuban community but who disagree with the hard-line approach taken by the three Republican incumbents on key issues related to Cuba, such as their support for travel restrictions imposed by the Bush administration that allow Cuban-Americans to visit close relatives in Cuba once every three years. […]

Garcia himself is thought to be a potential candidate, and in an interview said he’d consider a race if his party asks him.

Well, it looks like people are starting to ask him.

I think this could be a fun race, and I don’t think that the GOP is well-situated to appeal to the Cuban community in the long term, where the Iraq War and S-CHIP are as big of a set of concerns as they are everywhere else.  And, let’s face it, the GOP’s Latino outreach hasn’t been exactly spectacular in recent years.

Will Joe give it a go?

Race Tracker: FL-25

Roll Call has the scoop: crumb-bum Republican Rep. Bill Young won’t announce his plans until the late spring of next year.

Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.) remains quiet on his 2008 re-election plans, confirming Wednesday that any announcement on whether he will seek a 20th term likely will not be made until late next spring. […]

Despite the 76-year-old Congressman’s declaration, strategists in both parties have become increasingly convinced that he will choose to end his Capitol Hill career – potentially jeopardizing another Republican-held House seat. But until he says definitively what he will do, an air of suspended animation hangs over the campaign, with no contenders willing to step forward.

Federal candidates in Florida have until May 2 to register for the state’s Aug. 26 primary.

I bet he heads for the exit and pulls the ripcord.  My advice to state Sen. Charlie Justice, the Democrat most heavily rumored to enter the race if Young retires?  Enter soon and get a head start.  This D+1 seat will be ripe for the picking to a strong campaign.

Now that former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas is formally in the race against Jack Abramoff’s golfing pal, Rep. Tom Feeney of Florida, the DCCC has just released some polling numbers that they commissioned from Garin-Hart-Yang back in July — and the results aren’t pretty for Feeney.  The full polling memo can be viewed here (PDF file).

In a straight head-to-head match-up, here’s how Feeney fares (likely voters, no leaners):

Tom Feeney (R-inc): 42%
Suzanne Kosmas (D): 23%
MoE: ±5.0%

Mr. Feeney is well under that magical “50%” mark against an opponent who only has 19% name recognition in the district, according to the poll (vs. 86% for Feeney).  Additionally, the poll finds that Feeney has a net negative job approval (46% fair/poor; 36% excellent/good).

After hearing a brief positive bio for each candidate, Feeney leads Kosmas by a 45%-40% margin.  After informing voters of Feeney’s involvement with convicted felon Jack Abramoff, Kosmas jumps ahead to 45%-37%.  Additionally, 58% “express major doubts after hearing about Feeney’s support for privatizing Social Security”.

And yes — I’m well aware that this kind of a “message testing” poll does not necessarily mean that Feeney is slated to lose the election.  But with the race still in its formative stages, Kosmas has some seriously good material to work with in order to give Feeney a major challenge.  I expect this to be a tight race.

Another note from the poll: while Bush won the district by 10% in 2004, on the generic presidential ballot, the Democratic candidate edges the Republican by a 42%-41% margin.

Update: The Politico picks up the poll, too, and gets a hilariously delusional comment from Feeney’s office:

Responding, Feeney’s chief of staff, Tonnie Wybensinger, said, “Feeney has always had a 24 percent unfavorable rating because 25 percent of the district is liberal – not enough to elect Kosmas. Kosmas’ appeal right now is that no one knows who she is and once people do know, that appeal will diminish.”

Tom Feeney: he’s not only out of his league — he’s out of his mind.  I should take this opportunity to note that only 53% of voters knew of Feeney’s Abramoff connections, according to the poll.  Can’t wait for some more “voter education” here.

Crumb-bum Bill Young has long been considered a potential retirement for the GOP this cycle–and Democrats are hungry for the shot at an open seat race in this tossup district (at D+1, it supported Gore in ’00 and Bush in ’04 by the slimmest of margins).  Let’s take a look at some of the press that Young has earned over the year and see what the story tells us:

February 16, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Nat’l Dems “are aggressively working to recruit someone to run” for Rep. Bill Young’s (R) seat, “pegging it as one of their top targets.” A DCCC recruiter “recently met with prospective” Dem candidates including ex-state House Speaker Peter Wallace (D), ex-state Rep. Lars Hafner (D) and businessman/neighborhood activist Karl Nurse (D). […] The challengers, though, have their doubts. Wallace on Young: “I’d be very surprised if a highly competitive campaign could be run against him.”

February 20, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Dems “sounded the opening bell last week,” firing off an e-mail from FL party leaders suggesting that Young already “is seated squarely in Dems’ sights.” They attempted to link Young to the Walter Reed scandal in the e-mail. A DCCC operative suggested that Young’s alleged proximity to the Walter Reed scandal likely could be a “rallying point” for an already packed field of “likely” candidates.  Dems “are courting” state Sen. Charlie Justice (D), state Reps. Rick Kriseman (D) and Bill Heller (D), ex-FL House Speaker Peter Wallace (D) and hospital Admin. Sue Brody. Dems say GOP leaders are “petrified” Young will opt not to run in ’08, which likely would set off a “primary scramble in both parties.”

May 15, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Rep. Bill Young (R) said even he doesn’t know “how much longer he’ll stay” in Congress.  Young: “Nobody knows because I don’t know.”  But will he retire in ’08?  Young: “Let’s be honest: I’m thinking about it more than I did last year or the year before.” […]

But Young’s uncertainty has left GOPers “worried that he may be serving his last term.”

July 17, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

At 76, Rep. Bill Young (R) is unsure if he wants to retire, but just in case he decides to run, he’s “amassing” a “truckload of money.”  He has nearly $600K CoH for an election that is “more than a year away.”  Asked if the money was a sign he was running again, Young said, “I think you should take that as a sign that we are prepared to back up whatever decision we make.”  Young has voted with the GOP 84% of the time so far this year, “the lowest level since 1992, according to an analysis by Congressional Quarterly” (Adair, St. Petersburg Times, 7/17).

August 9, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

State Sen. Charlie Justice (D) was in DC last week “talking” with the DCCC about running against Rep. Bill Young (R).  Justice: “A lot of people have been asking me to aat least think about it, consider it.”  Justice, whose name “is also in the mix” of possible ’09 St. Petersburg mayoral cands, so running against Young “might boost” his name ID if Young “waits awhile to retire.”  Justice: “I don’t get into campaigns to raise my name ID for future races or to set myself up for a mayoral race.”  If I did it, I would run to win.”

October 2, 2007: Bill Young votes to deny victims of terrorism financial compensation.

October 13, 2007: Young posts his third quarter fundraising tally:

Bill Young (R-inc): $29K raised; $579K CoH

Huge stunner here.  […] These numbers are positively John Warner-esque.  Is Young looking for the exit?

Something is set to break here.

According to The Hill, Florida Democrats are seeking to put three Miami-area incumbent Republicans on the defensive next year: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21) and Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-24). Below is a chart of PVIs and Presidential voting in the three districts:

State	CD	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Kerry ’04	Bush ’04	Gore ’00	Bush ’00
FL	18	Ros-Lehtinen	(R)	R+4.3	46	54	43	57
FL	21	Diaz-Balart, Lincoln	(R)	R+6.2	43	57	42	58
FL	25	Diaz-Balart, Mario	(R)	R+4.4	44	56	45	55

It is no secret that Republicans have long dominated Cuban-American politics in Florida, where a tough stance on Cuba has long been at the forefront of the community’s political goals. The same has been true of these Miami-area districts. Interestingly, though, Kerry performed slightly better than Gore did in both the 18th and 21st districts, despite the fact that Kerry lost the state by 5% while Gore and Bush ran nearly evenly in 2000.

Could one, two, or all three of these incumbents end up being the next Henry Bonilla, the Texas Republican who got trounced by Democrat Ciro Rodriguez in a district with a similarly red PVI (R+4.2) last December? Florida Democrats are eager to put the three incumbents to the test, and are actively seeking challengers.

They may have found the candidate to give Lincoln Diaz-Balart a run for his money in Raul Martinez, the popular former mayor of Hialeah:

Martinez is exactly the kind of candidate Democrats would need to seriously challenge Diaz-Balart because their battle would take place in a district where cultural ties matter more than party affiliation, according to David Wasserman, U.S. House editor for The Cook Political Report.

“Democrats are looking more for a name than a moneyed or well-funded campaign,” he said.

Martinez, who like Diaz-Balart is a Cuban émigré, fits that bill after 25 years as mayor of Hialeah, which is the fifth-largest city in Florida, boasts a huge Cuban population and is 90 percent Hispanic.

As of 2004, Hialeah’s population has been recorded at nearly 225,000 — a good base for a challenger to draw on. Last month, Martinez quit his radio show after being asked to sign a waiver by station management promising not to run for a political office. Keeping his options open? Sounds like it to me:

“That’s Miami,” quipped Martinez, who said he believes the station came under political pressure from GOP forces trying to protect Lincoln Diaz-Balart. The incident has him leaning toward running, Martinez said.

“My family comes first, but then, my love has always been politics,” he said in an interview. He plans to make his decision by the end of October or mid-November, partly to give others enough time to prepare for a run if he decides against challenging the eight-term Republican.

Democrats are hopeful that, with strong challengers at the helm, the political landscape will shift in southeast Florida. They’re already touting polls that show Iraq and health care as the top concerns in the Diaz-Balart districts. It’s worth noting that all three of these incumbents voted against the recent S-CHIP expansion package, and in support of the president’s veto of the bi-partisan legislation. The DCCC is sensing an opportunity: they’ve begun airing Spanish-language radio ads in all three districts, hitting the incumbents hard over their unconscionable votes.

Now all we need are three challengers to take these districts for a spin.

Race Tracker: FL-18 | FL-21 | FL-25

Considering that it’s a state that Gore won (in my book), and that John “The Haunted Tree” Kerry lost by 5 points, Florida’s lopsided congressional delegation of 16 Republicans and 9 Democrats sticks out like a sore thumb on the U.S. electoral map.  (Of course, it was even worse before the victories of Tim Mahoney in FL-16 and Ron Klein in FL-22 last year, at a brutal margin of 18R-7D.)  Chalk it up to tenaciously shrewd gerrymandering by the Florida state legislature.  Five of Florida’s House Democrats are packed in districts that delivered over 65% of their votes to Kerry in 2004, one (FL-11) gave Kerry 58%, one is in marginally Democratic turf (Klein), and two Blue Doggies hold districts that lean GOP on the Presidential level as of late (Allen Boyd and Mahoney, whose districts both delivered 54% their vote to Bush in 2004).  Florida’s Congressional Republicans, on the other hand, have set up shop in a plethora of districts specially created for them–areas that Bush won by margins between 10 and 20 points (of which there are 11).

But as Democrats have proven themselves more adept at holding red turf than Republicans have been at retaining seats in blue districts (Democrats currently hold 62 House districts that Bush won in 2004, while Republicans hold a scant eight that voted for Kerry), so too has their zeal for stepping up the pressure against incumbents in Republican-leading districts.  According to the AP,  DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has lined up five Republican seats for aggressive challenges in 2008:

For Democrats, the targets are Reps. Vern Buchanan, Ric Keller, Dave Weldon, Tom Feeney and C.W. “Bill” Young.

Here’s the rationale for each:

– Buchanan barely won his District 13 seat in the Sarasota area after spending more than $5 million of his own money on the race. He won by 369 votes. His opponent, Christine Jennings, believes touch-screen voting machines lost thousands of ballots and that she would have won if all votes had been counted.

– Keller promised to leave office after eight years, then decided after the last election to break his vow. He’ll have to use resources in a primary before facing a Democratic opponent. Democrats see signs the District 8 seat that includes the Orlando area could favor one of their candidates, and they’ll make a case that Keller’s voting record doesn’t reflect the interests of his constituents.

– Weldon underperformed at the polls last year when he was re-elected in District 15, which represents the Atlantic coast from Vero Beach north to Cape Canaveral. He was re-elected with 56 percent of the vote, but against a weak Democratic candidate who spent far less money. A stronger, better financed candidate could be a challenge.

– Feeney’s District 24, which stretches from the area north and east of Orlando to Brevard and Volusia counties’ coastline, would normally be considered safely his. But Feeney’s golf trip to Scotland with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff could taint the congressman as Democrats continue to make ethics an issue in 2008.

– Young’s District 10 seat, which represents Pinellas County, is slightly Republican, but trends show the large independent voting bloc favors Democratic candidates. Young also hasn’t been seriously tested in years.

Democrats have already lined up a few ambitious challengers for these districts.  Keller, who won re-election by an underwhelming 53-46 margin against Democrat Charlie Stuart (a DCCC pick whose ability to compete monetarily in the general election was hampered by a competitive primary), will square off either with prosecutor Mike Smith or Sierra Club activist Corbett Kroehler.  But first Keller (who’s breaking his term limit pledge by running again), will have to get through a primary with conservative radio host and attorney Todd Long.  Long caught Keller somewhat off-guard during the first quarter, where he outraised the incumbent by a $40k to $27k margin.

In FL-15, Democrats have recruited Paul Rancatore, a Lt. Col. in the Air Force Reserves and the current “Director for Commercialization of Human Space Flight in the National Security and Space Office” at the Pentagon (that’s a mouthful).  In FL-13, Christine Jennings never ended her campaign against Vern Buchanan, of course, and she’s been raising money at a fast clip to pay for her legal expenses.  Despite her narrow “loss” last year, her race will be as tough to win as the rest of these, given some of Buchanan’s cautious votes in the House.

But it’s perhaps Florida’s 10th district that could be the most exciting of the five.  Unlike the rest of Florida’s Republican delegation, Bill Young holds a true toss-up seat, with a PVI of D+1.1.  Gore won this area by two points, and Kerry lost it by the same margin.  On paper, Young would appear formidable: he’s a 36-year incumbent, and he hasn’t won a re-election with less than 65% of the vote in ages.  But on the other hand: Democrats haven’t really tested his hand.  And given his totally irresponsible handling of the Walter Reed scandal, there’s clearly some rust to be punctured here.  Democrats have yet to line up a strong challenger to either him or the Abramoff-loving Tom Feeney (FL-24), and these will be major tests of Van Hollen’s recruiting prowess.

One final note about the article:

Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, expressed confidence that the party wouldn’t repeat its showing in 2006. He said Mahoney never would have won if it hadn’t been for Foley’s scandal and that Republicans perform better in Florida during presidential elections.

“All these districts will perform more like they normally do in ’08 than they did in ’06. That’s what presidential elections do. The Democrats had their best shot at a lot of these folks in 2006 and either didn’t make it or didn’t pull the trigger. I don’t think they’ll get a second opportunity,” Cole said. “We’re back to normal politics.”

With Iraq spiraling out of control, it’ll never be “normal politics”, Tom.  You should be ashamed of yourself.

Under a rule Crist has made, all but the most violent felons, nearly one million in total will once again have the right to vote in florida.  This will have several ramifications on the state, some profound, some superficial. 
  Let’s start with the profound.  First and most importantly of all, this will bring the country one step closer to a world free of jim crow.  While most of the Jim Crow laws are no longer in effect, this rule, which had been written into the state’s constitution for decades, was one of them.  While all felons are obviously not African americans, nationwide there is a clear slant, in many cases due to unfairness in the criminal justice system. 
Another important aspect is that it will be a lot harder for republican operatives to disenfranchise voters, that coupled with a voting machines that have a voting trail (also Crist’s idea) could swing many key florida races to us, but more importantly will restore voting rights and democracy to florida. 
  There’s also the factor of how this will affect dems.  Felons do typically vote towards dems more and while African americans (which voted 84% for Kerry) do not make up the majority of felons, it will help.  Whether this turns the state, or even a single race is yet to be seen, but it could certainly help.  More importantly however, I say we declare Crist-for the time being at least- a democrats republican.  The man restored voting rights people!

Originally posted at FLAPolitics

Congresswoman Karen Thurman, Chair of the Florida Democratic Party (FDP), titled a recent email “The Road to the Presidency Runs Through Central Florida”. Like most missives from a political party it was soliciting funds (which is to be expected). This one was for the Democratic challenger in the special election for a central Florida State House seat. 

But, the email’s title spoke to me, because I’ve been thinking along the same lines recently. Let me explain.

Way back in December of 2006 James Carville and Mark Penn did an op-ed piece in the Washington Post that made the case for how Hillary could win the presidency:

Certainly she could win the states John Kerry did. But with the pathbreaking possibility of this country’s first female president, we could see an explosion of women voting — and voting Democratic. States that were close in the past, from Arkansas to Colorado to Florida to Ohio, could well move to the Democratic column. It takes only one more state to win.

And then in an interview with Tom Schaller, Carville added which state was the most likely to go Hillary’s way:

Carville puts Arkansas, Florida, and Virginia in Tier 1, with Louisiana and Tennessee in Tier 2. That makes sense in terms of ranking, but I pressed him to pick the one state he thought Hillary was most likely to flip, if she were to win only one. He picked Florida.

Now, I’m not exactly a fan of Hillary‘s, but if she does get the nomination, I still want her to win. Also, I think there would be a silver lining for Florida if she does get the nomination. Before I proceed, let me post a map of Florida showing the counties.

In a comment to a diary I wrote right after the election, GatorDem made the point that the key to winning a state-wide election in Florida for a Democrat was for the candidate to hold his or her own in the part of central Florida known as the I-4 corridor. I looked at this phenomenon in depth in my diary called What Can We Learn From the Florida State-Wide Races of 2006?

The only state-wide race in Florida for 2008 will be the presidency. That means that if Hillary wants to win Florida’s 27 electoral votes, she has to do okay in central Florida.

In 2006, the Democrat running for Chief Financial Officer, Alex Sink, did all right there. If we look at her totals for the central Florida counties (Brevard, Citrus, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Manatee, Marion, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Lucie, Sumter, and Volusia) we see that she bested her opponent Tom Lee 1,122,770 to 1,059,063 (51.5%-48.5%).

For comparison, the 2006 Democratic candidate for governor, Jim Davis, lost to Charlie Crist in those same counties by 954,960 to 1,221,558 (43.9%-56.1%) and Democratic candidate for attorney general, Skip Campbell, lost to Bill McCollum 973,653 to 1,220,365 (44.4%-55.6%).

In 2004 John Kerry lost the central Florida counties 45.8%-54.2%. In 2000 Al Gore also lost, but was closer, 48.6%-51.4%. Again, the point to be made is that if you’re a Democrat and you break even in this area, then you’ve won the state wide race.

But, in the last six years, the only two Democrats to do that are Senator Bill Nelson and CFO Sink. We know Nelson‘s situation is special, being a celebrity ex-astronaut (he won the area 60.8%-39.1%). And it’s possible that Alex Sink‘s case was also unique. She was perfectly qualified for the position, having been a bank executive, she has a lot of personal charisma, and the CFO position avoids the usual liberal-conservative issues that other races get mired in.

So, this is not exactly going to be a cakewalk for Hillary.

If Sen. Clinton wants to do well in the same area she needs to have a strong message and be ready to spend some money. Is there anything else she can do to help her chances?

Republicans control most of the US House seats through the area. Kathy Castor has the safe Democratic seat in FL-11 and Corrine Brown has the majority minority FL-03, but Ginny Brown-Waite is in FL-05, Cliff Stearns in FL-06, Ric Keller in FL-08, Gus Bilirakis is in FL-09, Bill Young is in FL-10, Adam Putnam in FL-12, Dave Weldon in FL-15, Tom Feeney in FL-24, and everyone knows what happened in FL-13.

The lop-sided result is due to the masterful gerrymandering (pdf map of districts) that the Republican legislature accomplished in 2002 and the sorry state of the FDP before Congresswoman Thurman took over.

Now the DCCC has said it is going to target FL-10, probably because they feel Young is going to retire (he’s 76 and has been in congress since 1971). And I’m sure FL-13 is going to get some attention. But what about the rest of them?

One way that Hillary can insure that she does well in central Florida, and thereby win all of the 27 electoral votes, and the presidency, is to make sure that the FDP and the DCCC find serious Democratic challengers for these seats. She can then help them along by funneling some of her megabucks into the races thru the DCCC.

The big advantage is that any challenger to these Republican US House members can still run against George Bush, since this bunch will be part of his rubber stamp congress. If a coordinated campaign against them can be mounted that nationalizes these elections in the same way that Ron Klein successfully did in beating 12 term congressman Clay Shaw in FL-22, then the Democratic vote thru the area will be highly energized.

Since the major media markets in the area overlap several districts, a Friends of Hillary PAC can hammer all the Republican incumbents at once for being stooges for George Bush and Tom DeLay. Why wasn’t proper oversight performed by congress while Bush was running the country into the ground during the six years they were in exclusive power?

You know as well as I do that everyone wants another chance to vote against our incompetent president. Hillary can give it to central Florida Democratic voters by following this strategy.

Another advantage to having Hillary as the candidate would be that she could get Bill to come down to fund raise and campaign with these Democratic challengers. Who would people in Hillsborough County rather see, Gus Bilirakis or Bill Clinton? If the former president shuttled back and forth across the center of the state a couple of times during the election, it would have a dramatic effect.

And when Hillary comes, she could make the trip with Alex Sink. This would allow Hillary to gain the immediate advantage of Sink‘s charisma and strong, fiscally conservative message, and also provide the added effect that having two women politicians appearing together would accomplish by energizing Democratic women to come out and vote.

Now, it’s not critical to Hillary‘s prospects for any of the Democratic candidates to win any of these seats, only that enough Democrats turn out and also vote for her so that she does well enough to win the state.

But, if some good candidates (like Rod Smith) can be recruited, and the FDP and DCCC can coordinate the campaigns so that they’re effective, and Hillary can divert enough money to them to get the message out, then it’s possible some of the Republican congressmen can be defeated as well.

Hey, a win-win. So, what’s Carville‘s email address?

I previously diaried on the potential pickup opportunities in 2008 in Florida at dailykos (http://www.dailykos….).

It was suggested to me that I also post them here and I have updated a few of the situations.

Now I see an opportunity for Democrats to swing as many as two to five seats to the Democratic column in Florida.

Here are the rankings with this information:
(District: Representative (PVI, 2004 Election, 2006 Election, Funds Raised in 2006 of Republican – Democrat)

Toss-Up

8th District: Ric Keller (R+3, 61% – 39%, 53% – 46%, $1,225,000 – $918,000)

This could possibly be the best Democratic pick-up opportunity in Florida for 2008. Keller was first elected to the Orlando area seat in 2000, winning in a Republican primary runoff race after rallying on an 8-year term pledge that his opponent would not agree to. He went on to beat the Democratic opponent with only 51% of the vote. His seat was redistricted in 2002 to be more Republican friendly, yet it still has a low PVI. In 2006, his election victory was anything but impressive, as he held on with just 53% of the vote. Now he has said he is going to go against his term limit pledge that won him election in 2000. He has also voted against Stem Cell Research. Both of these issues could be crucial in a funded 2008 election contest, which is definitely going to happen.

13th District: Vern Buchanan (R+4, 0%, 50% – 50%, $6,064,000 – $2, 051,000)

We all know the story here. The 2006 election was stolen from Democrat Christine Jennings. If Jennings does not get the seat now, there is going to be a big 2008 election battle. It is actually amazing Jennings did so well, considering Buchanan’s massive war chest. It just shows where the district stands.

Update: Sided with Bush on Iraq escalation resolution.

Toss-Up (Possible Retirement)

10th District: Bill Young (D+1, 69% – 31%, 66% – 34%, $550,000 – $32,000)

This district covers Pinellas County and Young has been the representative there since 1971, despite the slight Democratic lean of the district. At 76 years of age and also the most senior Republican member of the House of Representatives, it is very well possible Young might retire, especially since his party has now gone into minority status. He previously held the position of Chairman of Committee on Appropriations and now has been delegated to ranking minority member on the Subcommittee on Defense. There was speculation even before the 2006 election that he would retire, but he ran again. Now speculation will build even more in the months to come, as his power in the House has disappeared. If the seat becomes open, it should be a very costly election of which the Democrats have a great chance of winning. If he runs again, there will probably be little chance of picking up the seat. What we should do is try to recruit a really good candidate now and that might speed up Young’s decision. Chances are he does not want to face a tough reelection battle if he does run again, so if we get a good candidate early we could scare him into retirement.

Update: With the news of the Walter Reed situation (http://www.dailykos….), the chances of a retirement may be increasing even further. It’s time to push him into retirement.

Young also sided with Bush on the Iraq escalation resolution and this is a Dem district. It’s time to really start hammering him.

Slight Republican Lean

15th District: Dave Weldon (R+3, 65% – 35%, 56% – 44%, $727,000 – $91,000)

First elected in 1994, Weldon is serving a fairly moderate district, with only a slight Republican advantage. Match that with his far-right voting record and that is why this seat will be competitive in 2008. One of his big blunders was his efforts to keep Terry Schiavo alive. He faced a lot of criticism from his central Florida district for that. But he has also had a far-right voting record, including his vote against Stem Cell Research in the last Congress and this one. In this Congress, he has voted down 9/11 Rec., Minimum Wage, Medicare Negotiation, Student Loans, Alternative Energy, and Stem Cell Research. His 2006 election performance was terrible and he had more than seven times the amount of money as his opponent, but he garnered just 56% of the vote. He should and will face a tough reelection battle in 2008.

Update: Sided with Bush on Iraq escalation resolution.

21st District: Lincoln Diaz-Balart (73% – 27%, 59% – 41%)

Lincoln is a Cuban politician who has represented the Miami 21st district since 1993. Lincoln could certainly be vulnerable. The district is fairly moderate and has had low turn out, only 111,000 voters in 2006. The election in 2008 could provide a great opportunity for Democrats to go after the Cuban vote, with older Cubans becoming less influential and possible changes in Cuba in the future.

Update: See Cuban Vote (http://www.dailykos….)

24th District: Tom Feeney (R+3, 100%, 58% – 42%, $1,295,000 – $44,000)

The Orlando area district is moderate, but Feeney is on the extreme far right-wing of the Republican Party. Feeney is so conservative that he has developed a Conservative Check Card for members in Congress when voting on legislation. He voted against all bills of the 100 Hours Plan, absolutely everything. In 2006, he was named as one of the 20 Most Corrupt Members of Congress by CREW. Most notably, he has faced controversies for lobbyist paid trips he has taken. He was first elected in 2002, faced no opponent in 2004, and in 2006, as can be seen he did not have an impressive victory. In fact, his opponent had 26 times less funds to use in 2006, making the election even more miraculous. Tom Feeney should be hammered in 2008. He is far right on the issues compared to his moderate district. This district is winnable.

Update: Sided with Bush on Iraq Escalation resolution.

25th District: Mario Diaz-Balart (R+4, 100%, 58% – 42%, $658,000 – $35,000)

Mario is the brother of Lincoln Diaz-Balart and he is in a similar district, slightly less Republican, in Miami. The district also had low turn out in 2006, with just around 102,000 voters. Democrats should make a strong effort to win the 21st and the 25th district in 2008. Perhaps some kind of campaign plan could be made to campaign against both the brothers at the same time. A key issue could be Stem Cell Research, both of them voted against it.

Update: See Cuban Vote (http://www.dailykos….)

Leans Republican

5th District: Ginny Brown-Waite (66% – 34%, 60% – 40%, $736,000 – $80,000)

The district was previously represented by a Democrat, Karen Thurman, who is now Chairman of the Florida Democratic Party. However, after redistricting Brown-Waite took the district narrowly in 2002. The district is still somewhat moderate, though, and around 250,000 people in the district receive Social Security checks. Brown-Waite has had many controversies since running for office. In 2002, her husband was caught stealing Thurman campaign signs. In 2004, she faced criticism for sending free Congress mailings to constituents before the election. She has also defended Muslim hate-rhetoric. If we were going after candidates for disgust fullness, Brown-Waite would probably be our first choice. She has been a terrible representative and has not upheld the honor of the House nor of the people of her district. If we want to go after her in 2008, her vote against Prescription Drugs Negotiation could be a start.

6th District: Cliff Stearns (64 – 36%, 60% – 40%, $775,000 – $123,000)

Stearns has represented the district since 1989, when he won an open seat previously held by a Democrat. He did lose support from 2004 to 2006 and it will be interesting to see if we can continue that trend throughout the next two years.

9th District: Gus Bilirakis (R+4, 0%, 56% – 44%, $2,557,000 – $1,174,000)

Bilirakis just won this seat in 2006 after it was vacated by his father, who spent 23 years in the seat. It is still only a slight Republican district. And Bilirakis has set himself up as a target in 2008 by voting against Stem Cell Research. This will be a race to watch in 2008.

18th District: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R+4, 65% – 35%, 62% – 38%, $931,000 – $59,000)

Ros-Lehtinen was first elected in 1988. She is serving a Cuban-Miami district and she is against having relations with Cuba, which is where she garners most of her support. She supports gay rights and is moderate on some other issues. However, she voted against Stem Cell Research, which should be used against her in 2008. Overall I am not quite sure Democrats have as much a chance at this district as they do the other two Republican held Miami districts.

Likely Republican

1st District: Jeff Miller (74% – 26%, 69% – 30%, $316,000 – $52,000)

The 1st district is possibly the reddest in all of Florida. It has not supported a Democratic Presidential nominee since 1960 and has not elected a Democrat to Congress since 1994. Miller first won the seat in 2001 in a special election after Joe Scarborough resigned. He has since been reelected by fairly large margins.

4th District: Ander Crenshaw (100%, 70% – 30%)

The district has not sent a Democrat to Congress since redistricting in 1992, when a Republican was first elected to the seat. Crenshaw was elected in 2000 and since has become a Deputy Majority Whip in the Republican Party. After facing no opponent in 2004, he was elected by a large margin in 2006.

7th District: John Mica (R+3, 100%, 67% – 37%, $731,000 – $21,000)

Mica first won the seat in 1992 after redistricting. In 2006, he won by a large margin, despite the fact the PVI for the district is only R+3. Based on this last election, it is unlikely the seat can be picked up, but we should still continue to challenge it like we should all districts.

12th District: Adam Putnam (65% – 35%, 69% – 19% – 12%)

There was no Democratic opponent in the race in 2006, only two independents. Putnam first won the seat in 2000 and he has faced no Democratic opponent twice since then. He now serves as the 5th ranking Republican in the House. It is doubtful Democrats could pick this seat up, but we should definitely field someone.

14th District: Connie Mack IV (68% – 32%, 64% – 36%, $1,088,000 – $29,000)

Mack was first elected in 2004, after winning an open seat previously held by Porter Goss. This is another district, where it is doubtful Democrats can win.

In all of the cases, the money battle is startling. Democrats were heavily underfunded in all of the races, but still managed to be competitive. In the races against Weldon, the two Diaz-Balart brothers, and Feeney, the Democrats were campaigning with extremely little funds, but still managed to hold the incumbents below 60% and in the case of Weldon, just 56%.

Democrats have a real shot of picking up a few seats in Florida in 2008, particularly a couple of possible surprises in Weldon and Feeney, two dedicated members of the far-right wing conservative alliance in the Republican Party.

What happens if Congressman Bill Young determines all the hoopla over the Walter Reed Hospital scandal is too much and he decides to retire at the end of this term. Can a Democrat win the 10th Congressional District in Florida?

Answer below.

In the comments to my diary on Congressman Young, Progressive America made the statement:

It’s a Dem District
If Young retires, this is a Dem pickup guys. I hope the DCCC will air some ads in this district. It would be very smart to start putting pressure on Young right now.

He then added:

Cook has it at D+1. It would be a very close race, but should go to the Democrats.

PA was referring to the Partisan Voting Index from the Cook Political Report. A D+1 rating means that the district voted at a one percent greater Democratic amount then the nation as a whole based on the 2000 and 2004 elections. I don’t know if the methodology used takes into account that the district was gerrymandered more Republican during the 2002 redistricting.

In a later comment GatorDem points this out:

Unfortunately, FL-10 is a swing district 
at best without Young running. Most of the African Americans in South Pinellas were put into FL-11 (Kathy Castor) in the 2002 redistricting.  That has left the district with about 20,000 more Rs than Ds.

This district could be won when Young retires (or dies), but it would take a very strong, well financed candidate to pull it off.

I was interested in determining what the possibilities were for a well-financed, popular Democratic candidate in an open race, i.e., not against Young (or his wife).

I used the method mentioned in my diary on the 2006 Florida elections. I looked at how well Democrat Alex Sink did against Tom Lee for the Chief Financial Officer race in the District.

The two raised comparable amounts of money, but Sink is a politically astute campaigner who did well throughout the state, not just in predominately Democratic areas. Her results from the 2006 race are a good indicator of what a competent Democratic candidate can achieve.

The results:

Sink  107,711  54.3%
Lee  90,525  45.7%

That definitely looks doable to me.

Cross posted from Daily Kos

Originally published at FLAPolitics

And Derek Newton from FLAPolitics was out front on this issue by a year