Tag: Florida

Back in August, we crunched the voter registration numbers in nine key Florida congressional districts, and found Democrats making big gains in all of them.

The Florida Division of Elections has just posted new numbers for each congressional district, and a quick glance confirms that the trend is continuing big time. Statewide, Democrats have added an additional 200,000 registered voters to their advantage over the GOP since July. But let’s take a look at the same nine districts that we looked at in August.

In the 2006 column, we have the GOP’s voter registration advantage in each district as of October 10th, 2006. In the next column, we have the numbers as of July 28 of this year, followed by the most recent numbers (October 8).  Take a peek:

Wow — for the first time, Democrats now have a partisan advantage in the 8th District, where Democrat Alan Grayson is taking on GOP crumb-bum Ric Keller. Keller is locked in the fight of his political life, and these numbers prove it.

While two of these districts are pretty much off the map in terms of realistic Democratic pick-up opportunities (the 9th CD and the open seat dud in the 15th), the other huge shift can be seen in South Florida, where Democrats are waging tough fights against the Diaz-Balart brothers (the 21st and 25th CDs) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in the 18th District. For years, these districts were seen as Republican strongholds, but now, Democrats have chipped away significantly at the GOP’s edge.

Democrats have even made up a lot of ground in the 16th District; it’s just too bad that disgraced Rep. Tim Mahoney has squandered it all.

Full raw numbers for all of these districts are available below the fold.

October 8, 2008:

July 28, 2008:

October 10, 2006:

http://www.centerforpolitics.o…

Larry Sabato is one of he best political analysts around.  He was dead-on predicting the races in 2006.  Even giving all the tossups to McCain would still mean an Obama victory.

His new column up today has the following EV breakdown:

Obama – 278

McCain – 174

Tossups – 86

2004 red states for Obama – NV,CO,NM

2004 blue states for McCain – None

Tossup States – FL,MO,OH,VA,NC

It’s no secret that Democrats are posting a big voter registration surge in Florida. According to estimates from the Florida Democratic Party, Dems have added 287,770 new voters this year to the GOP’s 112,290 (and 90,000 independents). While Republicans have been publicly brushing off suggestions that this trend is at all worrisome to their party, their actions suggest otherwise. So here’s the latest ploy from Florida’s GOP to tip the scales back in their favor:

The Florida Department of State, backed by Gov. Charlie Crist, is rushing to implement a new law that could block thousands of those voters’ ballots. And turn Election Day 2008 in Florida into a catastrophe akin to the hanging-chads debacle of 2000, if legions of disenfranchised voters step up with lawsuits.

Here’s what’s happening:

With six weeks before the Nov. 4 elections, Florida Secretary of State Kurt Browning last week began enforcing what’s known as the “No Match, No Vote” law.

Passed by the GOP-dominated Legislature as an anti-fraud measure, No Match, No Vote bars citizens from voting if their driver’s license or Social Security number don’t match information from government databases.

Stopping voter fraud is a fine idea, but the databases are error prone.

Simple glitches such as clerical typos toss out voters’ applications, and unusual spellings of names of new voters could cause “no match” results.

With no time for troubleshooting the system, that could falsely disenfranchise many who’ve done nothing wrong.

Florida’s elections officials are already swamped with the processing of the many thousands of new voter registrations being turned in. They may not have time to contact new applicants and get any discrepancies sorted out.

Consider this just another friendly reminder that Republicans will do everything in their power to game the system in their favor.

UPDATE: On September 16 EMILY’s List announced their endorsement of two more Congressional challengers: Becky Greenwald in IA-04 (D+0) and Sharen Neuhardt in OH-07 (R+6).



Maybe someone out there who knows the inner workings of EMILY’s List can explain to me why this group has not put money behind Becky Greenwald, the Democrat challenging loyal Republican foot-soldier Tom Latham in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district.

I have been going over the list of Democratic women running for Congress whom EMILY’s List is supporting, with a particular focus on the six challengers most recently added to this group in early August. I do not mean to denigrate any of those candidates, and I recognize that every race has its own dynamic.

However, after comparing Greenwald’s race to those of other candidates, I remain puzzled that EMILY’s list is not more involved in IA-04.

Follow me after the jump for more.

First things first: IA-04 has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+0. Since 2004, every Congressional district in Iowa has seen big gains in Democratic voter registration, which surged in connection with this year’s presidential caucuses. For the first time since Iowa’s districts were last redrawn, IA-04 now has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Democrats have an advantage in the generic Congressional ballot nationwide, but what may be more relevant for this district is Barack Obama’s big lead over John McCain in Iowa (double-digits according to the two most recent polls). The Obama campaign’s enormous ground game in Iowa will be working in Greenwald’s favor too. Her staffers and volunteers seem pleased with the level of coordination between the campaigns’ turnout efforts.

Turning to Greenwald as a candidate, you can see from her bio that she has strong roots in the district as well as experience in the business world and a history of volunteering for causes including the Iowa Democratic Party. She dominated the four-way Demomcratic primary on June 3, winning over 50 percent of the vote. As of June 30, she had raised about $143,000 for her campaign but had only about $82,000 cash on hand because of her competitive primary.

Several Iowa political analysts observed this summer that Greenwald can beat Tom Latham if she can raise enough money to compete. Latham serves on the House Appropriations Committee and was sitting on more than $800,000 cash on hand as of June 30. Then again, plenty of well-funded incumbents have lost seats in Congress when facing a big wave toward the other party. Cook has this race as likely R, but I would consider it lean R. There have been no public polls on the race yet.

The current reporting period ends September 30. I don’t have inside information about Greenwald’s cash on hand now, but I know she has been aggressively fundraising all summer long. I assume things have gone fairly well on that front, because the DCCC just put IA-04 on its “Emerging Races” list. One thing working in Greenwald’s favor is that the Des Moines and Mason City markets, which cover most of the 28 counties in the district, are not too expensive for advertising. So, she can be up on the air for several weeks, even though she clearly won’t be able to match Latham dollar for dollar.

Side note: Shortly after the Democratic primary in IA-04, the sore loser who finished third vowed to run for Congress as an independent. However, he quickly turned his attention to the fight against Iowa’s new smoking ban. He then failed to submit petitions to qualify for the ballot, took down his Congressional campaign website and reportedly moved to Florida. In other words, he won’t be a factor in November.

Why should EMILY’s list get involved in this race? Not only is Greenwald a good fit for the district, she is pro-choice whereas Latham has a perfect zero rating on votes related to abortion rights.

As a bonus, Greenwald has the potential to end Iowa’s disgrace as one of only two states that have never sent a woman to Congress or elected a woman governor.

Now, I will briefly examine the six candidates for U.S. House whom EMILY’s list most recently endorsed. As I said earlier, I don’t mean to knock any of these candidates, but I do question why these districts would be considered more winnable than IA-04.

1. Anne Barth. She is running against incumbent Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia’s second district (R+5, somewhat more Republican than IA-04). Cook has this race as lean R, Swing State Project sees it as likely R. As of June 30, Barth had about $353,000 cash on hand, compared to more than $1.2 million for Capito. My understanding is that this district is quite expensive for advertising because of its proximity to Washington, DC.

2. Sam Bennett. She is running against incumbent Charlie Dent in Pennsylvania’s 15th Congressional District (D+2, slightly more Democratic than IA-04). Cook and Swing State Project both rate this race as likely R, although Chris Bowers is optimistic given the partisan lean of the district. As of June 30, Bennett had just under $354,000 cash on hand, compared to about $687,000 for Dent.

3. Jill Derby. She is running against incumbent Dean Heller, who beat her in the 2006 election to represent Nevada’s second district (R+8, markedly more Republican than IA-04). It’s not too uncommon for Congressional candidates to win on their second attempt, but Cook and Swing State Project both view this district as likely R. As of June 30, Derby had about $314,000 cash on hand, while Heller had just over $1 million in the bank.

4. Judy Feder. This is another rematch campaign, as incumbent Frank Wolf beat Feder by a comfortable margin in 2006 in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District (R+5). Again, Cook and Swing State Project agree that this is a likely R district. As of June 30, Feder was doing quite well in the money race with about $812,000 cash on hand, not too far behind Wolf’s $849,000.

5. Annette Taddeo. She is running against incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Florida’s 18th Congressional District (R+4). Cook and Swing State Project both rank this district as likely R. Taddeo made a great impression on people at Netroots Nation and had just under $444,000 in the bank on June 30, while the incumbent reported nearly $1.9 million.

6. Victoria Wulsin. In 2006, she fell just short against incumbent “Mean Jean” Schmidt in Ohio’s second district (R+13). Granted, Schmidt is ineffective as an incumbent, which is probably why Swing State Project has this in the lean R category (it’s likely R according to Cook). Wulsin also had about $378,000 in the bank on June 30, compared to about $390,000 for Schmidt. Still, this is a markedly more Republican district than IA-04.

I understand that EMILY’s List does not have unlimited resources, but I still find it surprising that they have not jumped in to support Greenwald. A little money goes a long way in the Mason City and Des Moines media markets.

If you want to help send her to Congress, go here and give what you can. September 15 is her birthday, by the way.

I look forward to reading your comments about EMILY’s list or any of these Congressional races.

Why doesn’t the DCCC put out ads against all 3 Florida Congressmen? The Orlando market covers Districts 7, 8 and 24, so they would kill three birds with one ad.

According to the NRCC, no Republican District is safe this year. All three Florida Congressmen are corrupt, so let’s kick them all out this year.

www.actblue.com/page/fayeforcongress

Donate now to help put more progressives in Congress.

Florida’s District 7 should be added to the Swing State Project. The surrounding districts of Feeney and Keller were targeted, but not John Mica’s. District 7 has a small Republican advantage, but that may not even be true now, since Democrats have been outregistering Republicans by about a 5-1 margin.

Faye Armitage is a formidable opponent for Mica. Please check out her website www.fayeforcongress.com

The prize at the end of the primary season in Florida’s pristine District 10 is a meeting with 38 year Republican incumbent C.W. “Bill” Young. The democrat that has established himself as the front runner in this race to lead the charge against Bill Young is Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth.

Since 2002, Bob Hackworth’s leadership in environmental issues, diversity, and civil rights has provided a prime example as to what citizens should expect from him in Congress. His record of good government and visionary efforts in Dunedin also closed the deal on his recent endorsement by the St. Petersburg Times. His grasp on national issues has far out shined his two opponents (Max Linn and Samm Simpson). When confronted with the controversial FISA Act, Bob stood firm to his beliefs, saying

“Once again this administration has shown its disregard for the Constitution. By providing the telecom companies with immunity, the senate will be condoning the extra-constitutional actions of this government and be sending a message to the country and the world that big business comes before the freedoms and liberties of the American people. As usual, Rep. Bill Young sided with the administration in voting to restrict the freedoms that this country was founded on.”

Now his district is faced with an even greater dilemma as many feel that it is necessary to include off shore drilling in an energy bill in the future. Despite the Mayor’s strong support of Barack Obama, he refuses to compromise with republicans who wish to take part in the decimation of America’s coastlines.

“The elected officials who represent the people here in Pinellas County have utterly failed on this issue. We need leaders who will be honest about the energy crisis and invest in searching for alternative energy sources, instead of pandering because of $4 a gallon gasoline.”

Expect to hear much more from Bob Hackworth as he raps up his primary victory next week and pushes on towards victory in November.

The Florida Division of Elections has released their latest tallies of voter registration by congressional district (as of 7/28), and Democrats are posting some big gains since 2006 in targeted races this fall.

Let’s take a look at the numbers in the chart below. In the 2006 column, we have the GOP’s voter registration advantage in each district as of October 10th, 2006. In the next column, we have the most recent spread, followed by the net change. In the last column, we’ve ranked the districts according to the percentage change in the GOP-Dem spread. Take a peek:

The ground is shifting quickly in the Orlando-based 8th District, where GOP Rep. Ric Keller could be facing a real battle to hang onto his seat. The next biggest shift is in South Florida, where Democrats have posted huge registration gains in recent months, and where Democrats Annette Taddeo, Raul Martinez, and Joe Garcia are giving Republican Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and the Diaz-Balart brothers the fight of their lives.

The biggest black eye for Florida Democrats continues to be the open seat of FL-15, where despite having cut into the GOP’s voter registration advantage by over 9000 votes, Democrats were not able to find a top-tier candidate for the race. Democrats held retiring Rep. Dave Weldon to a 56-44 margin with an unknown candidate in 2006, but it appears that our candidate this year won’t be much stronger: both Democrats in the race have raised under $40K each.

Still, there’s a lot of good news here, and we should see some exciting races in Florida this fall.

Felipe Sixto, an aide for the Bush administration has resigned today over alleged financial wrongdoing with his former employer, the right-wing Center for Free Cuba. This case has resemblances to the recent RNCC scandal involving Christopher Ward, another Republican political operative who stole money from Republican party funds. Republicans don’t just cheat the country, they cheat their own party and interest groups who fund their campaigns too.

MSNBC:

“Felipe Sixto was promoted on March 1 as a special assistant to the president for intergovernmental affairs and stepped forward on March 20 to reveal his alleged wrongdoing and to resign, White House spokesman Scott Stanzel said Friday. He said Sixto took that step after learning that his former employer, the Center for a Free Cuba, was prepared to bring legal action against him.

Stanzel said the alleged wrongdoing involved the misuse of money when Sixto was an official at the center.”

Joe Garcia, candidate for the 25th district of Florida, released the following statement on the resignation:

“Today’s developments underscore the fundamental flaws of a policy designed to win votes in Miami and patronize partisan supporters — not bring freedom to Cuba.

As I have consistently stated in the past, millions of dollars intended to fuel a democratic change in Cuba are ending up in the hands of Bush/Diaz-Balart cronies and never make it to the island. While some of the funds are being properly used, and the program should continue, it is shameful that Bush/Diaz-Balart sidekicks have used it to take advantage of the generosity of the American taxpayer in order to enrich their friends and political allies.

In 2006, the Bush administration was warned by the Government Accountability Office that federal funds to Cuba were being grossly mismanaged and they did nothing. The GAO uncovered that “USAID’s internal controls over the awarding of Cuba program grants and the oversight of grantees do not provide adequate assurance that the grant funds are being used properly or that grantees are in compliance with applicable laws and regulations.” The report further detailed instances where the review process for granting awards was never completed. The USAID also failed to follow-up with several award recipients to ensure proper use of the funds.

Presented with this compelling evidence, the Bush administration sat on their hands and allowed taxpayer dollars to be wasted. Accordingly, American policy should require that at least 80% of these funds make it to dissident groups on the island. It’s time to move beyond the Bush/Diaz-Balart do-nothing politics of cronyism and corruption.”

This case could have repercussions in our three South Florida congressional races. The Center for a Free Cuba has been an ardent supporter of the Bush agenda and a leading agent against removing the counterproductive restrictions on family remittances and travel to Cuba. The organization has often called Democrats standing in their way communists and Castro supporters and they have already started doing so against our three challengers.

Stories like this show what Republican rhetoric really is about, fear-mongering and reactionary style politics meant to win elections rather than real substance that will bring change to Cuba.

As Joe Garcia recently stated at DWT on a post on Cuba policy and divisive Republican rhetoric, “We need to put control back into the hands of the Cuban people to make Democracy in Cuba possible. The time to act responsibly is now. We must end the demagoguery about Cuba and allow the wishes of the constituents of the 25th district to prevail.”

The end of the fundraising quarter is just days away. Please help Blue Majority endorsed Joe Garcia fight back against Republican tactics on Cuba by contributing to the campaign on Act Blue.

Disclosure: Member of Joe Garcia Campaign team.

It’s reached the point in Florida and Michigan where neither remaining candidate in the Democratic Party Marathon is even trying to sound reasonable, much less presidential.  Hillary Clinton is arguing the unsupportable position that the original primaries should count, as originally formatted, even though they were held in opposition to party rules and with the understanding by all candidates  that they would not count.

Obabma is arguing an equally unsupportable position that, because the political powers in the two states (and in Florida, this means the Republican-controlled legislature) broke the rules, the people of two of the largest and most critical states should be disenfranchised with regard to the party nominee.

normboyd40 :: Methinks I Smell Raw Politics: Boyd’s eye View

 

I have two thoughts on this issue.  First, a pox on both their houses. Let the contest go as it is going.  Let them get to the convention, refuse to allow the superdelegates to vote, and nominate Al Gore on the second ballot, with John Edwards as his running mate. (Or John Edwards, with Wesley Clark or Bill Richardson)

Second, stop the stupid squabbling. Hillary – get over it! The original primaries may have seemed like a dream come true for you, but that’s because they were a dream.  In the sense of not associated with reality. Get over it!

Obama, knock off the pontificating.  It makes YOU look stupid when you talk to us like WE are stupid.  Of course, you would love to ignore two states that may just vote for your opponent, but don’t stand there, as “candidate for all the people, all the time” and then say the millions of Dems in these two super-sized states can be ignored. Your camp says “There are serious concerns about security and making sure that everyone gets to vote”.  But then you say that the better alternative is to simply guarantee that nobody gets to vote.

So, both of you are exposed for just what you are.  Typical machine politicians ready to do anything at all for a victory. Yes. it is true, I will still vote for one of you, if that’s how it ends up, but only because the alternative is unthinkable. No longer will I be able to cast my vote proudly and happily for someone I see as a great American and a potentially great President.  No, I will be voting to end the Bush years, to avoid the Bush Lite ascendancy, and get us out of Iraq and back into the rule of law and reason.

A plausible solution for Florida and Michigan has been waved in our faces by a Democrat who, quite frankly, isn’t the most progressive or most loyal to Democratic causes, Sen. Bill Nelson. He would like to tweak the system to favor his candidate,  naturally enough, but that can be dealt with. Florida and Michigan have enough big money Democrats to finance this do-over as a mail-in primary.  Don’t tell me the US Mail is less trustworthy than Dieboldt Corporation. We can do this.  We can do it fairly and efficiently, and we can get a nominee. If not, go back to my first scenario and draft either Al or John.

Oh, and Gov. Dean?  May we humbly suggest going back to winner-take-all primaries next cycle?  God, I hate it when the GOP is more competent that we are.