Tag: Florida

Having mapped most of the country in my absurdly low-tech fashion, the release of Dave’s redistricting application (and bandwagon appeal) compels me to revisit some of these states with better data. I’ll start with Florida and Georgia, two states covered by recent diaries but for which my approach is decidedly different.

These maps resemble what I drew on Paint, but not exactly.

Below the fold…

Florida

Like my Paint-generated Florida map, this is based on the assumption of a Republican plan, and more or less consists of incumbent protection with few exceptions (since it does generally protect incumbents, the map wouldn’t be dramatically different if Alex Sink was elected). Re: the Voting Rights Act, I was not able to preserve a black majority in Corrine Brown’s district; 47% was as close as I could seem to get, but with the white population at 40%, other minority groups would seem to make FL-3 VRA-protected.

The new 26th, as in my original iteration, is a modestly GOP-leaning Central Florida seat between the Ocala area and Lake Okeechobee.

The northern half of the state:

The southern half of the state:

Focus on South Florida:

District 1 (blue) – Jeff Miller (R-Chumuckla)

Counties: Escambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton

Large minorities: 14% black

Politics: strong Republican

District 2 (dark green) – Allen Boyd (D-Monticello)

Counties: Bay, Calhoun, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Taylor, Wakulla, Washington

Large minorities: 25% black

Politics: Republican-leaning when Boyd retires

District 3 (purple) – Corrine Brown (D-Jacksonville)

Counties: Alachua, Clay, Duval, Lake, Orange, Putnam

Large minorities: 47% black (just 40% white)

Politics: strong Democratic

District 4 (red) – Ander Crenshaw (R-Jacksonville)

Counties: Baker, Columbia, Duval, Hamilton, Nassau

Large minorities: 15% black

Politics: strong Republican

District 5 (yellow) – Ginny Brown-Waite (R-Brooksville)

Counties: Citrus, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hernando, Levy, Pasco

Large minorities: none

Politics: strong Republican

District 6 (aquamarine) – Cliff Stearns (R-Ocala)

Counties: Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Hamilton, Marion, Suwannee, Union

Large minorities: 11% black

Politics: strong Republican

District 7 (gray) – John Mica (R-Winter Park)

Counties: Flagler, Lake, Putnam, Seminole, St. Johns, Volusia

Large minorities: 12% Hispanic, 11% black

Politics: generally Republican

District 8 (lavender) – Alan Grayson (D-Orlando)

Counties: Orange

Large minorities: 27% Hispanic, 10% black

Politics: tilting/trending Democratic

District 9 (turquoize) – Gus Bilirakis (R-Palm Harbor)

Counties: Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas

Large minorities: 14% Hispanic

Politics: tilting Republican

District 10 (fuchsia) – Bill Young (R-Indian Shores)

Counties: Pinellas

Large minorities: none

Politics: swing/leaning Republican

District 11 (yellow-green) – Kathy Castor (D-Tampa)

Counties: Hillsborough, Pinellas

Large minorities: 28% black, 24% Hispanic

Politics: strong Democratic

District 12 (sky blue) – Adam Putnam (R-Bartow)

Counties: Hardee, Hillsborough, Marion, Polk, Sumter

Large minorities: 15% Hispanic, 12% black

Politics: generally Republican

District 13 (pink) – Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota)

Counties: DeSoto, Hardee, Manatee, Sarasota

Large minorities: 11% Hispanic

Politics: generally Republican

District 14 (olive) – Connie Mack (R-Fort Myers)

Counties: Charlotte, Collier, Lee

Large minorities: 16% Hispanic

Politics: strong Republican

District 15 (orange) – Bill Posey (R-Rockledge)

Counties: Brevard, Indian River, St. Lucie

Large minorities: 11% black

Politics: generally Republican

District 16 (green) – Tom Rooney (R-Tequesta)

Counties: Charlotte, DeSoto, Glades, Hendry, Highland, Martin, Palm Beach, Okeechobee, St. Lucie

Large minorities: 16% Hispanic

Politics: tilting Republican

District 17 (ash purple) – Kendrick Meek (D-Miami)

Counties: Broward, Miami-Dade

Large minorities: 52% black, 28% Hispanic

Politics: strong Democratic

District 18 (yellow) – Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami)

Counties: Miami-Dade, Monroe

Large minorities: 63% Hispanic

Politics: swing/leaning Republican

District 19 (chartreux) – Robert Wexler (D-Boca Raton)

Counties: Broward, Palm Beach

Large minorities: 22% Hispanic

Politics: strong Democratic

District 20 (light pink) – Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston)

Counties: Broward, Miami-Dade

Large minorities: 31% Hispanic, 11% black

Politics: strong Democratic

District 21 (maroon) – Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Miami)

Counties: Miami-Dade

Large minorities: 72% Hispanic

Politics: swing/leaning Republican

District 22 (brown) – Ron Klein (D-Boca Raton)

Counties: Broward, Palm Beach

Large minorities: 15% Hispanic

Politics: tilting Democratic

District 23 (mint green) – Alcee Hastings (D-Miramar)

Counties: Broward, Palm Beach

Large minorities: 52% black, 18% Hispanic

Politics: strong Democratic

District 24 (violet) – Suzanne Kosmas (D-New Smyrna Beach)

Counties: Brevard, Flagler, Orange, Seminole, Volusia

Large minorities: 13% Hispanic

Politics: swing

District 25 (salmon) – Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Miami)

Counties: Collier, Miami-Dade, Monroe

Large minorities: 65% Hispanic

Politics: swing/leaning Republican

District 26 (charcoal) – New

Counties: Highland, Lake, Marion, Okeechobee, Osceola, Polk

Large minorities: 25% Hispanic

Politics: tilting Republican

Georgia

While it’s possible Roy Barnes or another Democrat will win the open governor’s mansion (a possibility in Florida too), I’m tentatively betting on a GOP gerrymander that finally cracks Jim Marshall’s district and makes the districts of Sanford Bishop and John Barrow majority-minority at last (Bishop’s would have an outright black majority, Barrow’s being 48% black and 46% white).

The most controversial choice I made was to kill those two birds with one stone by dividing Marshall’s Macon base, giving most of urban Macon (which is heavily black) to Bishop (thereby forcing Marshall against the more entrenched Bishop in a majority-black district based in Southwest Georgia that Bishop would be clearly favored to win) and rendering the 8th even more rural and white.

I kept all three black-majority Atlanta districts over 50%, did my best to protect GOP incumbents in the suburbs, and created a new GOP-leaning suburban seat. In short, the quintessential Republican map. The only part I may have seriously screwed up was Linder’s district…it’s getting harder and harder to keep his portion of Gwinnett County solidly in GOP hands, and the 7th is now the most diverse district in the state.

District 1 (blue) – Jack Kingston (R-Savannah)

Description: entire coastline, rural South Georgia, white areas of Savannah, Valdosta, Vidalia

VRA stats: 72% white, 21% black

Politics: strong Republican

District 2 (dark green) – Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) vs. Jim Marshall (D-Macon) [Bishop would likely win primary in mostly intact but newly black-majority district despite Marshall’s Macon base)

Description: rural Southwest Georgia, Columbus, Albany, most of Macon and Valdosta

VRA stats: 52% black, 42% white

Politics: generally Democratic

District 3 (purple) – Lynn Westmoreland (R-Grantville)

Description: Atlanta exurbs to the south

VRA stats: 68% white, 25% black

Politics: strong Republican

District 4 (red) – Hank Johnson (D-Lithonia)

Description: most of DeKalb County

VRA stats: 51% black, 32% white, 11% Hispanic

Politics: strong Democratic

District 5 (yellow) – John Lewis (D-Atlanta)

Description: heart of Atlanta, remainder of DeKalb County

VRA stats: 54% black, 34% white

Politics: strong Democratic

District 6 (aquamarine) – Tom Price (R-Roswell)

Description: north Atlanta suburbs — Cherokee County, portions of Bartow and Cobb, north Fulton

VRA stats: 78% white

Politics: strong Republican

District 7 (gray) – John Linder (R-Duluth)

Description: most of Gwinnett County, small portion of Forsyth

VRA stats: 47% white, 22% black, 18% Hispanic, 11% Asian [most diverse, and rapidly diversifying, district in the state; this could be serious trouble for the Republicans by the mid-to-late 2010s]

Politics: tilting Republican but trending Democratic

District 8 (lavender) – open/not Jim Marshall

Description: far southern outskirts of Atlanta MSA, Warner Robins, rural Middle Georgia, down to Thomasville and Quitman

VRA stats: 66% white, 27% black

Politics: fairly strong Republican

District 9 (turquoise) – Nathan Deal (R-Gainesville)

Description: Appalachian North Georgia, Dalton, Gainesville, far north exurban Atlanta

VRA stats: 80% white, 13% Hispanic

Politics: strong Republican

District 10 (fuchsia) – Paul Broun (R-Athens)

Description: Northeast Georgia, Athens, north and west Augusta

VRA stats: 77% white, 15% black

Politics: strong Republican

District 11 (yellow-green) – Phil Gingrey (R-Marietta)

Description: northwest Atlanta suburbs/exurbs, much of Cobb County

VRA stats: 67% white, 19% black

Politics: strong Republican

District 12 (sky blue) – John Barrow (D-Savannah)

Description: southeast Augusta, northwest Savannah, rural eastern Georgia [meant to concentrate black population]

VRA stats: 48% black, 46% white [not quite a majority but closer than before]

Politics: generally Democratic

District 13 (pink) – David Scott (D-Atlanta)

Description: south Fulton County, all of Clayton and Douglas, southeast Cobb

VRA stats: 52% black, 33% white, 10% Hispanic

Politics: strong Democratic

District 14 (olive) – New

Description: east Atlanta suburbs/exurbs — most of Forsyth County, remainders of Gwinnett and Hall, stretching south through Barrow, Walton, Rockdale, Newton, and Butts

VRA stats: 71% white, 18% black [I should definitely have weakened Republican strength here for Linder’s benefit…live and learn, I guess!]

Politics: strong Republican [again, split the difference between this and the 7th and you have two fairly strong GOP districts]

So there you are, computer-generated equivalents of two of my maps. I’ve also done Texas and Missouri on Dave’s app and will post those at a later date.

Dave’s Redistricting Application brought us this fun.

A summary of the districts

FL-1 (Incumbent Jeff Miller [R], pop. 704958, 76% white/14% African-American): This district removes the coastal tail in Okaloosa/Walton Counties and it shrinks overall (except some tracts in Jackson County). Overall, it should be Republican as usual.

FL-2 (Incumbent Allen Boyd [D], pop. 704923, 67% white/25% African-American): This district was previously 72/22 white. It adds CD4 in Madison County westward and Washington County. It loses Suwanee County and parts of Taylor and Dixie Counties. It should be fine for Boyd and likeminded Moderate Dems.

FL-3 (Incumbent Corrine Brown [D] pop 704874, 45% African-American/43% White): This district resembles the 1992 version of this district, which is probably not ideal since the 1992 version of this district got struck down by the Supreme Court. The district starts in Ocala, moves north, takes in part of Williston, includes parts of Gainesville, includes a slice of Starke, then it moves north to include parts of Jacksonville, it goes back south through Clay County, then it goes to Palatka, then includes part of Palm Coast, it goes farther south, takes in part of Daytona Beach, DeLand, Sanford, and ends with part in Apopka, and some tracts near Orlando. Overall, I’m not satisfied with the final product in regards to VRA. But the 2000 district was 49/38 African-American.

FL-4 (Incumbent Ander Crenshaw [R], pop. 704958, 75% White/14% African-American): This district is actually not as white as the 2000 district, despite losing random appendages and taking in more of Jacksonville.

FL-5 (Incumbent Ginny Brown-Waite [R], pop. 704953, 83% White/5% African-American): This district gains coastal parts of Pasco County. It loses Sumter County and anything east of Citrus/Hernando/Pasco.

FL-6 (Incumbent Cliff Stearns [R], pop. 704932, 78% White/9% African-American): This district changes shape quite a bit and wraps around the 3rd.

FL-7 (Incumbent Suzanne Kosmas [D], pop. 704882, 82% White, 6% African-American): Kosmas current district [the 24th] is also whiter than this district. Since putting Mica’s house in the 7th wasn’t as practical as putting Kosmas’ house in the 7th, this arrangement was decided upon.

FL-8 (Incumbent Alan Grayson [D], pop. 704986, 48% White, 26% Hispanic, 20% African-American): Not only is this a total gift of a district for Grayson, it’s also not a horrendous gerrymander. The district unites Orlando in one district.

FL-9 (Incumbent Gus Bilirakis [R], pop. 704968, 75% White, 15% Hispanic, 5% African-American): Gus gives up parts of the coast on Pasco, and his district wraps around FL-11 now. And the White percentage drops here while the Hispanic percentage surges upwards.

FL-10 (Incumbent Bill Young [R], pop. 705002, 76% White, 12% African-American, 8% Hispanic): Here, the White percentage also drops, and we get a logical looking district including St. Petersburg.

FL-11 (Incumbent Kathy Castor [D], pop. 704964, 50% White, 23% Hispanic, 21% African-American): Despite making this district look logical, the demographics don’t particularly change.

FL-12 (No known incumbent, pop. 704768, 66% White, 20% Hispanic, 11% African-American): This district basically meandered since it was one of the last ones I did and it took in a lot of extras from everybody else. Depending on who wins the FL-12 election, this district may or may not have an incumbent.

FL-13 (Incumbent Vern Buchanan [R], pop. 704933, 82% White, 9% Hispanic, 6% African-American): The district shrinks, and actually includes African-American majority areas in Bradenton.

FL-14 (Incumbent Connie Mack [R], pop. 704899, 70% White, 21% Hispanic, 7% African-American): Adios Naples, Hola parts of Punta Gorda. Also, Hola giant surge in Hispanic percentage.

FL-15 (Incumbent Bill Posey [R], pop. 704991, 64% White, 23% Hispanic, 10% African-American): Well, hey… the minority population almost doubles. Posey loses Cape and gains Bay Lake/LBV.

FL-16 (Incumbent Tom Rooney [R], pop. 704935, 80% White, 11% Hispanic, 6% African-American): This district is one of the few to not have a higher minority population. It also looks a bit more normal now. It loses anything south/southwest of Highlands County, it gains Jupiter going down the beach.

And let’s go out of sequence for a one moment.

FL-21 is in red, FL-17 is in blue

FL-17 (Incumbent [fill in blank] Meek [D], pop. 704893, 52% African-American, 27% Hispanic, 17% White): The Hispanic population goes up, the African-American population goes down, and the representative is named Meek.

FL-21 (Incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart [R], pop. 704902, 82% Hispanic, 12% White, 5% African-American): Lawsuit bait, as serious packing is being undertaken here (from 69% to 82% Hispanic). If you don’t know your Miami-Dade, this district is now more compact around Hialeah.

And now back to sequence.

not pictured: Key West

FL-18 (Incumbent Ilena Ros-Lehtinen [R], pop. 704887, 55% Hispanic, 30% White, 13% African-American): Also a bit of lawsuit bait, as the Hispanic percentage goes down by 7 points.

FL-19 (Incumbent Robert Wexler [D], pop. 705015, 72% White, 16% Hispanic, 8% African-American): This district is being smoothed out a bit due to other changes around, and it keeps the same basic shape.

FL-20 (Incumbent Debbie Wasserman Schultz [D], pop. 704927, 53% White, 33% Hispanic, 10% African-American pop. 704872, 50% White, 32% Hispanic, 14% African-American): I probably drew this wrong (and it is a lot more Hispanic than the current district). It moves from Miami Beach up to Weston and Davie.

FL-22 (Incumbent Ron Klein [D], pop. 704918, 58% White, 24% Hispanic, 14% African-American, pop. 704996, 60% White, 24% Hispanic, 12% African-American): The district looks normal, the Hispanic percentage doubles, the African-American percentage triples.

FL-23 (Incumbent Alcee Hastings [D], pop. 704982, 49% African-American, 32% White, 16% Hispanic pop. 704959, 47% African-American, 33% White, 17% Hispanic): Travelogue time. The district starts in Hollywood, goes north to Fort Lauderdale, Deerfield Beach, Delray Beach, Boynton Beach, then west, then north, then east, then there’s West Palm Beach, then a bunch of underpopulated large tracts are included, along with Fort Pierce and Okeechobee.

FL-24 (No Incumbent, maybe, Pop. 704976, 74% White, 12% Hispanic, 11% African-American): This was the northern part of the unallocated lands covered by FL-12. If Dennis Ross is the next Rep in FL-12, then this would be his district.

FL-25 (Incumbent John Mica [R], Pop. 704957, 70% White, 17% Hispanic, 8% African-American): This district is a lot more Hispanic than Mica’s current district, and I think it includes a lot of the current FL-24.

FL-26 (Incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart [R], Pop. 704957, 60% Hispanic, 35% White): The only huge difference is that the African-American population dropped from 10% to 3% as unincorporated Miami-Dade (West Perrine) was put in FL-18. The district gains Naples, drops Homestead, gains some areas that were in FL-21.

In this first attempt of a map, several things occur.

1) Alan Grayson’s electoral hopes are probably improved and he won’t run up as much mileage going from event to event.

2) FL-3 is the target of several lawsuits.

3) FL-21 is the target of several lawsuits.

4) FL-22 is made bluer, FL-10 is made bluer, and FL-6 is confused.

So. Any thoughts at this first attempt at a map?

Dream scenarios almost never happen in politics.  But this is America, and if you didn’t learn last year that ANYTHING can happen in American politics you might as well hang up your hat now.  That said, I’m looking at the dream scenario that could play out in Florida next year.  I should say though, I’M NOT SAYING THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN!  I hate it when folks talk with absolute certainty about what can and can’t or will and won’t happen.  What I’m saying is, this is a POSSIBILITY and if it doesn’t happen, at least we had the dream.  If it does happen though, it will be fantastic.

So, here’s the scenario:  Crist runs for Senate, loses the primary to Marco Rubio, and the Senate race and the governorship both flip to our side.

How could this happen?

First, let’s look at the Governor’s race, as I don’t think there’s much argument that, if Crist gets out, it will be competitive.

The Democratic candidate is a no brainer: Florida CFO Alex Sink, who would be an incredibly strong candidate.  The Republican frontrunner would, presumably, be Florida AG Bill McCollum, but there’s the rub.  There are a ton of Republicans that could jump in if Crist bails: Ag. Commissioner Charlie Bronson, Former House Speaker Allan Bense, Lt. Gov Jeff Kottkamp (who’s in some legal trouble), and potentially some congresscritters.  A one on one race between Sink and the eventual nominee would remain a tossup to the end, but a brutal Republican primary…that would make it just that much easier for Florida to elect it’s first female governor, and an incredibly competent and skillfull one at that.

Now, to the Senate race and the scenario that could play out.

There is a formula for Rubio to defeat Crist.  It’s not a guarantee, but here it is:

1) Solidify support from the teabaggers and their ilk.  These folks are already pissed at Crist over the stimulus and a few other policies he’s pushed and the rage in the Republican ranks is growing only louder and crazier.  All Rubio has to do is start popping up at tea parties and laying in a few punches and he’ll get some momentum going.  From there, it’s easy to see him appearing on the right wing outlets-Beck, Hannity, Limbaugh, etc. and landing major support that will help tremendously in the primary.

2) Solidify the right-wing Cuban support.  Now, let me be clear here, I fully believe that being a member of a group no way guarantees the votes of the members of said group.  I’m talking about the right-wing Cuban noise machine here that’s been making south Florida’s politics toxic for decades.  Obviously, Rubio has plenty of windows to open here, but that said this whole thing would unravel if major figures from that machine like the Diaz-Balart brothers got solidly into the Crist camp.  If Rubio wants to win though, or even if he wants to look serious, he needs to poll well among Latino (specifically Cuban) Republicans.  I have no idea where Crist stands on Cuba, but all it will take is one slip, or even the suggestion that he might vote wrong on the issue.  Hell, if he doesn’t say anything or gets mealy-mouthed he’ll lose out here.  So there’s definately an oppurtunity for Rubio.

3) Enter the CFG.  The Club for Growth is already talking up Rubio and are furious with Crist over the stimulus.  They’ve been great at bombing races with tons of money and even when they weren’t successful in the primary they’ve often doomed the chances of the more moderate winner.  They’ll definately be a major factor here.

4) Keep the momentum going.  If Rubio locks up support from these major players in the primary, generates media buzz and decent fundraising (he doesn’t have to beat Crist’s numbers, the CFG will do that.  He just has to raise a decent amount and stay competitive), and doesn’t screw up, he can build on this strategy.  If he got the NRA endorsement it would help him tremendously, especially in the panhandle.  He could also get support from religious right groups who would be all too happy to take on a closet case like Crist in the primary.  And speaking of which, there’s always the major shadow hanging over Charlie boy.  At some point his sexuality is going to catch up with him at some point, the only question is when it will happen and how bad will the explosion be.

Like I said, I’m not saying this scenario will play out.  At best I’d say it’s got a 1 in 5 chance, maybe a 1 in 4.  Hell, Rubio could turn out to be blowing smoke and just jump into the Gov. race if Crist gets in.  But if he’s not, we shouldn’t write this one off just yet.  If Rubio does win in will be narrowly, and he’ll have pushed himself so far to the right that it will be much easier to defeat him than it would be if he won without facing Crist in the primary.  If you’ve ever seen Rubio speak, you know he comes off as an ordinary guy, very conservative but still likeable-the worst kind there is.  A divisive primary though will come back to haunt him and, who knows, even if Crist were to win he might be so bloodied as to be unreconizable, giving our eventual nominee (whoever it is, though right now I don’t see how it’s not Congressman Meek) an opening.

This one isn’t out of contention by a long shot yet.  This could happen.  It’s not the most likely scenario in the world, but it’s still a very real possibility.

Episode 5 in my redistricting series, and as you can see, I’m picking up the pace, having just covered Georgia and New Jersey yesterday. Because the Census released 2008 county estimates last week, I feel like knocking out these diaries for the states I already mapped using 2007 numbers. Of course, because they’re 2007 numbers, they’re not quite up to snuff, but in most cases, the lines wouldn’t look too dramatically different using newer stats.

Previously covered:

Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas

Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada

Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio

Diary 4: Georgia and New Jersey

Geek out below!

Florida

Now, this is the single hardest state I had to tackle. More so than Texas, more so than Ohio, more so than Pennsylvania. That’s because Florida is perhaps the most masterful Republican gerrymander in the nation; a state that voted 51% to 48% for President Obama is represented in Congress by 15 Republicans and 10 Democrats, and before 2006, the skew was 18-7. Considering Democratic dominance in South Florida and clear Dem trends along I-4, that’s pretty astounding cartographic craftiness by the GOP.

Unfortunately, unless we pick up the governor’s mansion in 2010 (virtually impossible, IMHO, unless Crist runs for the Senate, and even then, the GOP bench in Florida is quite deep), Republicans are set for another round of redistricting monopoly in 2011-12 (one caveat: a nonpartisan commission initiative is on the ballot in 2010, but since it needs 60% to pass, I’m skeptical). While Republicans’ room for growth is limited, what with Dem trends in Central FL and the Cuban districts softening, there could be at least one Dem casualty along with a new GOP seat, for a 17-9 delegation, though 16-10 would be a lot easier for legislators to ensure, since it’s not exactly a cinch to dismantle a moderate I-4 Dem like Suzanne Kosmas. Note: there is an outside chance that Florida will pick up two seats in reapportionment, but the disastrous real estate market has brought that long-famed migration to the Sunshine State to a grinding halt. In 2008, even recession-battered California grew faster. So I’m betting on a one-seat gain; the explosive growth in Florida between 2000 and 2006 more or less ensures at least that one gain, but I can’t envision a sufficiently large uptick in growth between now and the Census for a 27th District.

To sum it up, I’m actually not very satisfied with this map. It’s revoltingly gerrymandered, though no worse than the current iteration, and I’m not sure about some of my boundaries (is Alcee Hastings’ 23rd still VRA black-majority with these lines?). But I tried to maintain the best possible lines for the Republicans (i.e. mostly the status quo), with an emphasis on incumbent protection. I may have done things a bit differently if I’d used 2008 numbers, so an eventual do-over on my part isn’t out of the question.

To the point: the GOP has a real problem along I-4: with Orange and Osceola Counties decidedly Democratic, and Adam Putnam’s soon-to-be-open seat a near-tie between McCain and Obama, they can only play offense so much. I figured that since Orlando is becoming so progressive, they would concede Alan Grayson’s seat (assuming he is reelected in 2010) and hurt Kosmas only by roughly maintaining the current, Feeney-drawn lines. Meanwhile, FL-12 (Putnam) is shored up by moving into some hardcore Republican territory, and a new 26th District is created from Central Florida leftovers (unfortunately for them, it only barely leans Republican in a neutral year as I’ve drawn it, and in a year like 2006 or 2008, might well elect a Democrat). Again, I tried my best to be devious, but when a state is already so gerrymandered for one party and the trends are running against that party in key regions of said state, “safety first” is the likely tack.

As for South Florida, my boundaries are imprecise, so the summary descriptions are a bit more informative. Basically, I tried to replicate the current boundaries in most of these cases, while cleaning up the 23rd (as I mentioned, though, it probably can’t be as cleaned-up as I drew it since it is a VRA seat). If more specific Census estimates were available, I could have known how to, for example, boost the Cuban-American percentage in Districts 18, 21, and 25, but instead, I was left with a sloppy, low-tech method as the Miami metro area goes.

For now, this is the map I’ve got:

Ugly? You bet. Want a logical map? The Sunshine State GOP wouldn’t hear of it.

District 1 – Jeff Miller (R-Chumuckla) — contracts in area; still the most conservative district in the state.

District 2 – Allen Boyd (D-Monticello) — still an old-school district of Jimmy Carter white Democrats who vote GOP for President. When Boyd retires, we will be in trouble here, as even the boosted black turnout of 2008 only resulted in a 54-45 McCain victory.

District 3 – Corrine Brown (D-Jacksonville) — well, it’s not quite as grossly drawn as before, but it must remain a VRA African-American seat, so I had to get creative.

District 4 – Ander Crenshaw (R-Jacksonville) — random trivia: did you know there were Civil War battles in this district?

District 5 – Ginny Brown-Waite (R-Brooksville) — I tried to clean up this and the 6th, both previously with needlessly messy lines; this one stays safely Republican, but now only splits one county (Pasco).

District 6 – Cliff Stearns (R-Ocala) — stays heavily Republican but looks a bit more aesthetic. No, I don’t like Gainesville being represented by a Republican any more than you do, but it is a blue island in a sea of red (much like Athens, Georgia).

District 7 – John Mica (R-Winter Park) — by only encroaching a bit into Orange County and making St. Johns County the largest population source, I attempted to help Mica, but the long-term trends here are not advantageous to him. If he moved out of Orange County, he could be drawn a safer seat.

District 8 – Alan Grayson (D-Orlando) — entirely within Orange County, meant to soak up Democrats to allow for a Republican 26th and to prevent Kosmas from getting too comfortable. I think if there’s one painful concession the GOP will have to make, this is it.

District 9 – Gus Bilirakis (R-Palm Harbor) — jumps around north Tampa Bay looking for Republicans, doesn’t change too much.

District 10 – Bill Young (R-Indian Shores) — entirely within Pinellas, probably still a 50/50 district. This is a seat they may well lose when Young calls it quits. With both A) the need to protect Bilirakis, and B) Castor’s 11th being maxed-out on Democrats, it’s another uncomfortable decision for the Republicans not to shore this district up very much. As long as the aging Young stays on the ballot, they don’t have to worry.

District 11 – Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) — still the bay-dancing Tampa-St. Petersburg seat, concentrating Democrats and with a significant black minority.

District 12 – Adam Putnam (R-Bartow) — since McCain won here by a mere inch, and Putnam is leaving in 2010, I figured protecting the 12th for future elections will be a major priority (if a Dem wins in 2010, the GOP will seek to dismantle that person before targeting Grayson or Kosmas). So, even as slightly GOP-leaning Polk County dominates my 12th, Sumter, Hardee, and DeSoto put it over the edge to produce a McCain victory of at least 53-46.

District 13 – Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) — this is only a tad more Republican than before, with the whole inclusion of Manatee County aiding GOP numbers.

District 14 – Connie Mack (R-Fort Myers) — dominated by Lee County with remainders of Sarasota and Charlotte. Still the quintessential Gulf Coast GOP mecca.

District 15 – Bill Posey (R-Rockledge) — in retrospect, I’d do this differently, as this is one district the GOP would probably weaken a bit to harm Kosmas or solidify the new 26th.

District 16 – Tom Rooney (R-Tequesta) — stretches from Charlotte to Palm Beach, much like before. If Rooney is easily reelected in 2010, he will be another incumbent they loosen up to cement weaker districts.

District 17 – Kendrick Meek (D-Miami) — should stay the most heavily black, most overwhelmingly Democratic district in the state.

District 18 – Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami) — while Ros-Lehtinen can probably hold on quite a few more cycles, this is the only GOP district other than Bill Young’s 10th that voted for Obama, and as Miami Hispanics trend toward the Democrats, all three Cuban-American Republican seats will be endangered. What happens when Ros-Lehtinen and/or the Diaz-Balarts retire? I’m not exactly sure how to solidify these three seats, as the nearest turf they could grab is mostly liberal-leaning anyway. Perhaps they could snag some Gulf Coast Republicans, but that would dilute the VRA Hispanic percentages…

District 19 – Robert Wexler (D-Boca Raton) — the most liberal of the three “Jewish districts” (I say that, of course, tongue firmly in cheek, as the Jewish percentage is a distinct minority in all three seats).

District 20 – Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) — the second of the three, nearly as Democratic as the 19th.

District 21 – Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Miami) — as with Ros-Lehtinen and the 18th, I don’t know how to shore up the three traditionally GOP Cuban seats.

District 22 – Ron Klein (D-Boca Raton) — still a coastal stretch; I think the GOP won’t change the lines much here, unless they can find a way to pack Democrats here who would otherwise be left in the 18th, 21st, or 25th.

District 23 – Alcee Hastings (D-Miramar) — regardless of how my lines appear, Hastings’ seat will stay majority-black under the VRA.

District 24 – Suzanne Kosmas (D-New Smyrna Beach) — the closest I could come to targeting Kosmas was to only take in 10% of Orange County, along with 64% of GOP-leaning Seminole and 67% of narrowly Dem-leaning Volusia. Once again, Republican gerrymandering in Central Florida can’t possibly get much more aggressive without sacrificing a couple seats.

District 25 – Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Miami) — see the 18th and 21st.

New District 26 – Central FL, Leans Republican — Osceola and St. Lucie Counties favor Democrats, so it is no accident that I made the largest pop. source here 56% McCain-supporting Lake County, cutting through heavily GOP Okeechobee. Due to the inclusion of Osceola, there will be a significant Hispanic minority here, and a Dem base vote of about 46-47%, rendering it vulnerable to a future loss. Is there a way to draw this that is better for the Republicans? Probably, and I’m sure their computers will find it…but Putnam, Posey, Rooney, Bilirakis, Brown-Waite, and Stearns all need to be protected at the same time. The balance along I-4 really is that tenuous for them.

Overall, my map is flawed, as is the current map in Florida. I intended for realism’s sake to create a masterful Republican gerrymander and ended up with a plan that would, at best, maintain the status quo with a 16-10 GOP edge (with the best possible scenario being an eventual 18-8 if Boyd retires, Kosmas is defeated, and every Republican seat stays intact…quite a tall order indeed). Unless Central FL swings decisively to the Republicans in 2010, there is minimal room for offense on their part…and how to stave off Dem advances in Miami-Dade? In the end, to everyone’s surprise, the biggest winners from the next map may be incumbent Democrats like Klein, Grayson, and Kosmas who picked up seats drawn to reelect Republicans. It really is in the GOP’s interest to salvage what they have in Florida rather than get too greedy.

Louisiana

This was a lot easier, though not exceedingly comforting for a Democrat. The severe population loss in the New Orleans area means that there may no longer be a strong Dem seat in Louisiana, let alone a VRA district. No doubt my proposed District 2 would retain a large black percentage, but I’m far from certain it would be anything near a majority. Might the same judicial system that once rejected Cleo Fields’ “Z district” as a racial gerrymander change its tune in the name of the Voting Rights Act?

As for the political dynamics in Louisiana, Jindal will still be Governor at least through 2011, when redistricting starts, and the legislature is perilously close to flipping to the GOP (the House is already run by a de facto GOP-friendly coalition, with a Republican Speaker to boot). Even if the Senate remains in Democratic hands, Louisiana Dems aren’t exactly known for their party loyalty.

But the task here is simple, and Democratic strength in the Pelican State has collapsed so rapidly that partisan considerations aren’t nearly as influential as they would seem. Everyone agrees that a New Orleans-area seat has to be eliminated, so here’s roughly what I imagine the somewhat Republican-esque legislature coming up with:

Note: Technically, Charlie Melancon’s home was put in the 1st for population reasons, but I would expect him to run in the 2nd instead.

District 1 – Steve Scalise (R-Jefferson) — had to expand in land, but stays heavily Republican.

District 2 – tentatively, Joseph Cao (R-New Orleans) vs. Charlie Melancon (D-Napoleonville) — Melancon would do well to move here, as the boundaries do vaguely resemble his old 3rd, but since the bulk of district population is in Jefferson and Orleans Parishes, it’s his seat that was cracked and eliminated. A New Orleans pol would be favored geographically, and I’m not sure what the political leanings would be here (my guess is competitive, with Dem strength in New Orleans offset by GOP dominance in Jefferson Parish). This might make a worthy court challenge, depending what the race stats are here (and I have no idea what they would be, nor does anyone else post-Katrina).

District 3 – John Fleming (R-Minden) — still quite Republican and trending more so.

District 4 – Rodney Alexander (R-Quitman) — other than the 1st, the most Republican district in the state.

District 5 – Bill Cassidy (R-Baton Rouge) — I thought including some more former Melancon territory might help Cassidy and lessen the influence of Dem-friendly Baton Rouge, but it might also prompt Melancon to move here and mount a long-shot challenge instead of battling it out with a New Orleanian in the urban/suburban-dominated 2nd.

District 6 – Charles Boustany (R-Lafayette) — expands in area, but is still the conservative Cajun seat.

Other than what happens with the eliminated seat, there shouldn’t be too much drama in Louisiana, since Jindal’s loyal GOPers and the conservative Dems will likely seek a consensus plan that somehow cracks Melancon’s seat and consolidates it with NOLA. Actually, the real drama may arise in the courtroom re: racial demographics in each district.

Coming soon: Pennsylvania and Utah, followed by Arizona and New York. Eventually I may tackle other states as well, but I haven’t even mapped New York yet.

EDIT: Clearly my Louisiana map is something of a flop, and I blame the fact that I drew it some weeks ago using 2007 estimates. If I’d known Orleans Parish had regained nearly 73,000 residents between 2007 and 2008, I would have drawn the lines a lot differently, and probably could have more easily retained that VRA New Orleans-area seat. I still imagine Melancon’s seat being cracked, but the majority-black 2nd will remain (just expand due to population loss from 2000).

Hopefully my Florida effort was less ill-informed?

Here’s the full write up on each race. 

OK, I know we just came off of 2008, and there were a lot of competitive races nationally, as well as in Florida. But, 10 is just a big number. I mean we’ve only got 25 seats in the House, so 10 of them being competitive is a huge deal. Don’t get too excited though, they aren’t all possible D pickups.

2nd (Tallahassee, etc.): Congressman Allen Boyd, a Blue Dog, is being primary challenged by Al Lawson, term-out state Senate leader. Lawson, no true progressive, will run to the Left of Boyd. My prediction: the challenge never really materializes, and Boyd keeps his seat.



8th (Orlando, etc.): Grayson beat Keller here in 2008. Since winning, Grayson has shown his true colors as an ‘aggressive’ progressive. Nothing wrong with that in my book, but will his voters find him out of sync with them? I think it’s less of a question about Grayson but more about who the Rs can put up against him.



10th (St. Petersburg, etc.) Will Bill Young ever retire?



12th  (Lakeland, etc.) Adam Putnam is vacating to run for Ag Commissioner. Dennis Ross, former state Senator, is the defacto Republican nominee; Lori Edwards, Polk county Supervisor of Elections, is the prominent D in the race. Definitely will be a race to watch.



13th (Sarasota, etc.) What is Vern Buchanan doing? He’s talking about a Senate race; perhaps because the Ds will never let him just have the district. If he vacates, watch for a strong race in a tight district.



16th (Palm Beach County, etc.) Southern Political Report ranks this one. I’m not so sure it’s competitive. Tom Rooney will win again, but he will be challenged by a strong D. Just not sure the D will ever be able to take off.



17th (Miami, etc.) Who will replace K-Meek? Whoever wins this primary will be the new Rep.



22nd (Fort Lauderdale, etc.) This is another, ‘What will person X do?’ race. Ron Klein may get into the Senate race. Even if he doesn’t, he will never go unchallenged in this swingy district. But, if he runs for reelection, Klein should sail to victory again.



24th (Orlando, etc.) Kosmas, who just took her seat in January, will face a strong, but yet to be determined, Republican. Feeney had questionable morals, which inevitably led to his downfall. The national Rs will look to the 24th to run a strong campaign and reclaim the district.



25th (Miami, etc.): The 3 Miami area Ds who ran in 2008 never took off in their races like the national party expected. But, expect to see strong races again down in the Miami area. In the 25th, Joe Garcia will likely again challenge Mario Diaz Balart, but just ask Christine Jennings what happens to second time candidates.

So those are my thoughts. What are yours?  

From December 2007 to March 2008, I wrote various drafts of a proposal on how our political parties — starting in 2012 — might adopt primary election procedures that would better serve our country in selecting presidential candidates. I originally drafted a hypothetical calendar for 2008, based on general election results from 2004. Now that we have the results for 2008, I can now propose a calendar specific to 2012.

The system by which our parties choose their presidential candidates has proven itself to be, at best, highly questionable — at worst, severely flawed.

The primary calendar we need most is one that is built on an orderly and rational plan — one that is based on mathematics and on recent historical outcomes — and not on an arbitrary, publicity-driven, system of one-upsmanship. The change I propose would provide for a more effective, equitable process than the one we have now.

The following factors are the key ones to consider:

Margin of Victory

– The state primaries would be placed in order according to the leading candidates’ margins of victory in the preceding general election — with the states registering the closest margins of victory going first.

For example, John McCain won Missouri by 0.1% and Barack Obama won North Carolina by 0.4%; conversely, McCain won Wyoming by 33%, and Obama won Hawaii by 45%. Therefore, the primary calendar I propose would commence with primaries being held in states such as Missouri and North Carolina — and would close with such states as Wyoming and Hawaii.

– The purpose of ordering the states according to the margin of victory is to help the parties determine which candidates can appeal to those states that have found themselves most recently on the Electoral Divide. A narrow margin in the general election is reflective of an evenly divided electorate. In this scenario, a candidate who appeals to, say, Florida and Montana is more likely to appeal to a greater number of Americans on the whole.

Iowa, New Hampshire, and Fairness

– Iowa and New Hampshire might object to this new system, given their longstanding tradition of being the first states to cast their ballots. However, so long as Iowa and New Hampshire retain their record of being fairly bipartisan states, they’ll maintain their position towards the front of the primary schedule.

– Just because a state should have its primary later in the season does not mean that that state will prove invaluable to the process. Indiana and North Carolina weren’t held until May 6th, but those two states might have very well decided the fate of the 2008 Democratic nomination.

– This new system allows other states to play a greater role in how the parties select their candidates. For example, Missouri and North Carolina would be two of the states to get the limelight in 2012. Likewise, based on the results to come in November of 2012, a still-different slate of states could have a more significant role come 2016. A rotating system will be healthier and fairer.

Groupings of Five, and Timing & Spacing

– By placing states into groupings of five, no one state will be overly emphasized on any given date.

– Candidates will still need to address the concerns of individual states, whilst having to maintain an overall national platform. For example, a candidate will be less able to campaign against NAFTA in Ohio whilst campaigning for it in Florida.

– Given that each state has its own system for electing its delegates, these groupings of five states will act as an overall balancer. Ideally, caucuses will be done away with altogether by 2012. However — should that not happen — states with caucuses, states with open primaries, and states with closed primaries can all coexist within a grouping, therefore no one system will hold too much influence on any given date.

– Racial and geographic diversity in this process has been a great concern for many. The narrowest margins of victory in 2008 were in a wide variety of regions — the Midwest, the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the South, and the West.

– All parties would have an interest in addressing these narrow-margined states early on. The incumbent will want to win over those states that were most in doubt of him in the previous election, and opposing parties will want to put forth candidates who have the best chance of winning over those very same states.

– Primaries will be held biweekly, giving candidates and the media enough time to process and respond to the outcomes of each wave of primaries.

– Washington DC will be placed in the same grouping as whichever state — Virginia or Maryland — is closer to its own margin of victory.

– American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, and Americans Abroad — not having Electoral votes of their own — will determine their own primary dates, so long as they occur between the first grouping and the last grouping.

Under these guidelines, the proposed calendar for the 2012 primary season is:

January 2012

Tue, 1/10

Missouri

North Carolina

Indiana

Florida

Montana

Tue, 1/24

Ohio

Georgia

Virginia

Colorado

South Dakota

Tue, 2/7

North Dakota

Arizona

South Carolina

Iowa

New Hampshire

Tue, 2/21

Minnesota

Pennsylvania

Texas

Nevada

West Virginia

Tue, 2/26

Mississippi

Wisconsin

New Jersey

New Mexico

Tennessee

Tue, 3/6

Kansas

Nebraska

Oregon

Kentucky

Michigan

Tue, 3/20

Washington

Maine

Louisiana

Arkansas

Alabama

Tue, 4/3

Connecticut

California

Illinois

Delaware

Maryland

Washington DC

Tue, 4/17

Alaska

Idaho

New York

Massachusetts

Rhode Island

Tue, 5/1

Utah

Oklahoma

Wyoming

Vermont

Hawaii

Strategic Vision (R) has a new poll of the Florida Senate race, with some different names being polled than past polls.  The poll results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Florida, aged 18+, and conducted February 6-8, 2009. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

2010 Senate Democratic Primary

Ron Klein 12%

Kendrick Meek 10%

Pam Iorio 8%

Dan Gelber 4%

Undecided 66%

2010 Senate Republican Primary with Crist

Charlie Crist 54%

Connie Mack IV 16%

Vern Buchanan 10%

Alan Bense 7%

Marco Rubio 4%

Undecided 9%

2010 Senate Republican Primary without Crist

Connie Mack IV 21%

Vern Buchanan 11%

Alan Bense 8%

Marco Rubio 5%

Undecided 9%

2010 Senate General Election

Crist 58%, Klein 24%

Crist 60%, Meek 26%

Crist 57%, Iorio 29%

Crist 58%, Gelber 27%

Mack 32%, Klein 27%

Mack 35%, Meek 25%

Mack 32%, Iorio 30%

Mack 33%, Gelber 20%

Buchanan 24%, Klein 28%

Buchanan 29%, Meek 23%

Buchanan 26%, Iorio 30%

Buchanan 23%, Gelber 20%

Bense 22%, Klein 27%

Bense 28%, Meek 21%

Bense 24%, Iorio 30%

Bense 27%, Gelber 25%

Rubio 18%, Klein 29%

Rubio 26%, Meek 24%

Rubio 19%, Iorio 32%

Rubio 22%, Gelber 17%

Not sure if this poll tells us too much.  Clearly, Crist dominates if he runs.  If he doesn’t, then the race is wide open.

Among the Democrats, Iorio consistently polled best in the general election match-ups, followed by Klein, then Meek, with Gelber last.  Of course, there are huge numbers of undecideds, so it’s impossible to say who would be the strongest general election candidate for the Democrats this far out.  When the primary is this open, I hope the DSCC stays out, as I think the strongest candidate tends to emerge from the primary.

Since noone else brought it up I figured I would.  Kos sponsored another R2K poll.  This one on the Florida Senate race in 2010.  It really doesn’t tell us much since many of the candidates have announced they are not running.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

Primary polls:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/26-28. Likely voters. MoE 4%, 5% for primary samples (No trendlines)

Democratic Primary

Meek 17

Boyd 8

Gelber 3

Undecided 72

Republican Primary

Crist 57

McCollum 11

Rubio 4

Republican Primary

McCollum 28

Rubio 12

General Polls:

Crist (R) 49

Meek (D) 28

Meek (D) 31

Rubio (R) 22

Crist (R) 52

Gelber (D) 21

Gelber (D) 23

Rubio (R) 23

Just a few responses to comments from old topics that I missed while out of town.

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Did Kanjorski do something bad?  If not, it seems that the only ones who need to go are Mahoney and Jefferson.

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Well, granted, Negron ran a strong campaign, as I heard, and they had a really nice slogan for it too (“Punch Foley for Negron”).

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Do we have evidence about Anzalone-Liszt’s quality other than MS-01?

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

And make those funny EV rules actually worth something!

Also, some funny thoughts about Florida, in response to a comment whose location I forgot:

No one puts faith in Florida.  Here are the rules of dealing with Florida:

1. No one understands Florida.  It does not make sense.

2. Florida does not do what you want it to do.  However, if you expect it not to do what you want it to do, it will do what you want it to do.  But this therefore starts an endless cycle in which you expect it to do either what you want or what you don’t want.

3. Florida has the inexplicable quantum ability to exist in more than one state of affairs simultaneously, allowing statement #2 to be true.  Thus, it is possible to simultaneously win and lose an election.

4. No one puts faith in Florida.  If you do, you are dutily rewarded.  Al Gore put his faith in Florida and he was rewarded with a supreme court decision.  George W. Bush put his faith in Florida and he was rewarded with a Middle Eastern mess, a sinking economy, and the worst presidential disapproval ratings ever.  Christine Jennings put her faith in Florida and she was rewarded with voting problems in Sarasota County.  Katherine Harris put her faith in Florida and she was rewarded with a good ass-whupping courtesy of Bill Nelson.  Heck, I put my faith in Florida and I was rewarded with with classical music stations disappearing from the south Florida radio airwaves, and with Florida being called for Bush with 97% reporting in 2004.

5. Florida also has the ability to create votes from thin air and erase votes into thin air.  No one is ever sure of the numbers, absolute or relative, of each.  These numbers are not necessarily whole; Florida has a record of involving fractions of votes as well.

It may be hard to fathom how 9/11 hijacker Mohammed Atta would factor into a Congressional campaign in Florida, but Tom Feeney, the Republican Congressman of Jack Abramoff fame, has given it a shot.

   

In his most recent campaign ad , Feeney claims that his opponent, former State Representative Suzanne Kosmas, “wanted drivers licenses for illegals and terrorists” as a picture of Mohammed Atta’s drivers license flashes across the screen. Feeney is known for being corrupt, having been named one of the most corrupt members of Congress every year since 2005, but this is a new low. We cant let these vile, baseless attacks go unchecked – we have to make sure that Kosmas has the resources to set the record straight and get rid of Feeney for good.

Kosmas has made up huge ground since entering this race, and was polling ahead of Feeney in the most recent DCCC poll. However, Feeney has a nearly 2-1 cash advantage, and will no doubt make use of all his resources to slander Kosmas.

Lets send a message to Tom Feeney that this type of fear-mongering has no place in politics anymore by making a donation to Suzanne Kosmas.