Dave’s Redistricting Application brought us this fun.
A summary of the districts
FL-1 (Incumbent Jeff Miller [R], pop. 704958, 76% white/14% African-American): This district removes the coastal tail in Okaloosa/Walton Counties and it shrinks overall (except some tracts in Jackson County). Overall, it should be Republican as usual.
FL-2 (Incumbent Allen Boyd [D], pop. 704923, 67% white/25% African-American): This district was previously 72/22 white. It adds CD4 in Madison County westward and Washington County. It loses Suwanee County and parts of Taylor and Dixie Counties. It should be fine for Boyd and likeminded Moderate Dems.
FL-3 (Incumbent Corrine Brown [D] pop 704874, 45% African-American/43% White): This district resembles the 1992 version of this district, which is probably not ideal since the 1992 version of this district got struck down by the Supreme Court. The district starts in Ocala, moves north, takes in part of Williston, includes parts of Gainesville, includes a slice of Starke, then it moves north to include parts of Jacksonville, it goes back south through Clay County, then it goes to Palatka, then includes part of Palm Coast, it goes farther south, takes in part of Daytona Beach, DeLand, Sanford, and ends with part in Apopka, and some tracts near Orlando. Overall, I’m not satisfied with the final product in regards to VRA. But the 2000 district was 49/38 African-American.
FL-4 (Incumbent Ander Crenshaw [R], pop. 704958, 75% White/14% African-American): This district is actually not as white as the 2000 district, despite losing random appendages and taking in more of Jacksonville.
FL-5 (Incumbent Ginny Brown-Waite [R], pop. 704953, 83% White/5% African-American): This district gains coastal parts of Pasco County. It loses Sumter County and anything east of Citrus/Hernando/Pasco.
FL-6 (Incumbent Cliff Stearns [R], pop. 704932, 78% White/9% African-American): This district changes shape quite a bit and wraps around the 3rd.
FL-7 (Incumbent Suzanne Kosmas [D], pop. 704882, 82% White, 6% African-American): Kosmas current district [the 24th] is also whiter than this district. Since putting Mica’s house in the 7th wasn’t as practical as putting Kosmas’ house in the 7th, this arrangement was decided upon.
FL-8 (Incumbent Alan Grayson [D], pop. 704986, 48% White, 26% Hispanic, 20% African-American): Not only is this a total gift of a district for Grayson, it’s also not a horrendous gerrymander. The district unites Orlando in one district.
FL-9 (Incumbent Gus Bilirakis [R], pop. 704968, 75% White, 15% Hispanic, 5% African-American): Gus gives up parts of the coast on Pasco, and his district wraps around FL-11 now. And the White percentage drops here while the Hispanic percentage surges upwards.
FL-10 (Incumbent Bill Young [R], pop. 705002, 76% White, 12% African-American, 8% Hispanic): Here, the White percentage also drops, and we get a logical looking district including St. Petersburg.
FL-11 (Incumbent Kathy Castor [D], pop. 704964, 50% White, 23% Hispanic, 21% African-American): Despite making this district look logical, the demographics don’t particularly change.
FL-12 (No known incumbent, pop. 704768, 66% White, 20% Hispanic, 11% African-American): This district basically meandered since it was one of the last ones I did and it took in a lot of extras from everybody else. Depending on who wins the FL-12 election, this district may or may not have an incumbent.
FL-13 (Incumbent Vern Buchanan [R], pop. 704933, 82% White, 9% Hispanic, 6% African-American): The district shrinks, and actually includes African-American majority areas in Bradenton.
FL-14 (Incumbent Connie Mack [R], pop. 704899, 70% White, 21% Hispanic, 7% African-American): Adios Naples, Hola parts of Punta Gorda. Also, Hola giant surge in Hispanic percentage.
FL-15 (Incumbent Bill Posey [R], pop. 704991, 64% White, 23% Hispanic, 10% African-American): Well, hey… the minority population almost doubles. Posey loses Cape and gains Bay Lake/LBV.
FL-16 (Incumbent Tom Rooney [R], pop. 704935, 80% White, 11% Hispanic, 6% African-American): This district is one of the few to not have a higher minority population. It also looks a bit more normal now. It loses anything south/southwest of Highlands County, it gains Jupiter going down the beach.
And let’s go out of sequence for a one moment.
FL-21 is in red, FL-17 is in blue
FL-17 (Incumbent [fill in blank] Meek [D], pop. 704893, 52% African-American, 27% Hispanic, 17% White): The Hispanic population goes up, the African-American population goes down, and the representative is named Meek.
FL-21 (Incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart [R], pop. 704902, 82% Hispanic, 12% White, 5% African-American): Lawsuit bait, as serious packing is being undertaken here (from 69% to 82% Hispanic). If you don’t know your Miami-Dade, this district is now more compact around Hialeah.
And now back to sequence.
not pictured: Key West
FL-18 (Incumbent Ilena Ros-Lehtinen [R], pop. 704887, 55% Hispanic, 30% White, 13% African-American): Also a bit of lawsuit bait, as the Hispanic percentage goes down by 7 points.
FL-19 (Incumbent Robert Wexler [D], pop. 705015, 72% White, 16% Hispanic, 8% African-American): This district is being smoothed out a bit due to other changes around, and it keeps the same basic shape.
FL-20 (Incumbent Debbie Wasserman Schultz [D], pop. 704927, 53% White, 33% Hispanic, 10% African-American pop. 704872, 50% White, 32% Hispanic, 14% African-American): I probably drew this wrong (and it is a lot more Hispanic than the current district). It moves from Miami Beach up to Weston and Davie.
FL-22 (Incumbent Ron Klein [D], pop. 704918, 58% White, 24% Hispanic, 14% African-American, pop. 704996, 60% White, 24% Hispanic, 12% African-American): The district looks normal, the Hispanic percentage doubles, the African-American percentage triples.
FL-23 (Incumbent Alcee Hastings [D], pop. 704982, 49% African-American, 32% White, 16% Hispanic pop. 704959, 47% African-American, 33% White, 17% Hispanic): Travelogue time. The district starts in Hollywood, goes north to Fort Lauderdale, Deerfield Beach, Delray Beach, Boynton Beach, then west, then north, then east, then there’s West Palm Beach, then a bunch of underpopulated large tracts are included, along with Fort Pierce and Okeechobee.
FL-24 (No Incumbent, maybe, Pop. 704976, 74% White, 12% Hispanic, 11% African-American): This was the northern part of the unallocated lands covered by FL-12. If Dennis Ross is the next Rep in FL-12, then this would be his district.
FL-25 (Incumbent John Mica [R], Pop. 704957, 70% White, 17% Hispanic, 8% African-American): This district is a lot more Hispanic than Mica’s current district, and I think it includes a lot of the current FL-24.
FL-26 (Incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart [R], Pop. 704957, 60% Hispanic, 35% White): The only huge difference is that the African-American population dropped from 10% to 3% as unincorporated Miami-Dade (West Perrine) was put in FL-18. The district gains Naples, drops Homestead, gains some areas that were in FL-21.
In this first attempt of a map, several things occur.
1) Alan Grayson’s electoral hopes are probably improved and he won’t run up as much mileage going from event to event.
2) FL-3 is the target of several lawsuits.
3) FL-21 is the target of several lawsuits.
4) FL-22 is made bluer, FL-10 is made bluer, and FL-6 is confused.
So. Any thoughts at this first attempt at a map?
I found some tracts around Lauderdale Lakes that were put in FL-20, and I divided them between FL-22 and FL-23, then I shuffled tracts to get a low deviation.
The old maps are still linked.
I know without political data it’s tough but who do you think the breakdown of a map like this would be? Looks better than the current 15 to 10 advantage R’s have.
I was able to make FL-3 closer to majority-black (47% if memory serves), but not quite. I have no idea how to get more than a 50% black population there what with the growth in heavily white suburban areas.
Aw. I live in West Jupiter and you put me back in FL-16 from FL-22. How does the new district compare to the current FL-16? St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft might be able to beat Rooney next time around.