Tag: elections

• NM-Sen (PDF): What happens if you took a poll and no one answered? That’s what this Tulchin Research poll (taken on behalf of the Defenders of Wildlife) feels like to me, what with its sample size of just 213 likely Democratic primary voters. If you’re trying to figure out the margin of error, you’ll need to start counting on your other hand – it’s 6.7%. Anyhow, the results, such as they are: 1st CD Rep. Martin Heinrich: 32; Lt. Gov. Diane Denish: 25; 3rd CD Rep. Ben Ray Luján’s: 15; State Auditor Hector Balderas: 5; and 24% undecided. I think it’s very unlikely that the field would develop this way, but I still think these “round up the usual suspects” polls can be valuable – if they have enough respondents, that is.

• OH-Sen: This kind of speculation is always seriously moronic… but hey, I live to serve. So in case you want to imagine a world where the Republican presidential nominee wins next year, and he’s picked Sen. Rob Portman as his running mate, Roll Call is happy to indulge your grim dystopian fantasy about a suddenly open Senate seat in Ohio come Jan. 20, 2013.

• WV-Gov: Democratic State House Speaker Rick Thompson just earned the endorsement of two teachers’ unions:  The West Virginia Federation of Teachers and the West Virginia Education Association. The primary here for this oddly-timed special election (necessary because of ex-Gov. Joe Manchin’s Senate victory last year) is coming up very soon, May 14th.

• CT-05: Kevin Rennie mentions a couple of possible Democratic prospects to replace Rep. Chris Murphy, who of course is running for Senate. One is 28-year-old pr strategist Dan Roberti, whose father Vincent was once a state rep. The other is CNBC reporter and former local news anchor Brian Schactman.

• NV-02: A piece in the WaPo has 2006 and 2008 Dem nominee Jill Derby sounding pretty interested – she said she’s considering forming an exploratory committee. (Ridiculous as that sounds – I mean, she’s considering whether to consider? – that actually counts as pretty aggressive talk in this hyper-cautious age.) The story also mentions another possible name, Assemblywoman Debbie Smith, as well as noting that state Treasurer Kate Marshall (whom we flagged as another potential candidate yesterday) calling the race “absolutely winnable.”

• NY-26: Republican Jane Corwin has her first ad out (NWOTSOTB), in which she repeatedly touts her supposed small business credentials but doesn’t mention that she’s a Republican. In some not-so-happy news, New York’s Green Party is saying they are likely to endorse Ian Murphy, the guy behind the fake David Koch call to WI Gov. Scott Walker, as their nominee. That means they probably won’t cross-endorse whoever winds up being the Democratic nominee… and that signals a long four years ahead of us. (Thanks to scoring 50,000 votes in last year’s gubernatorial election, the Greens get an automatic ballot spot in every race in the state through 2016.) Green Party co-chair Peter LaVenia says he doesn’t think that Murphy will “siphon votes” from the Dem… oy, christ, this is giving me nightmarish flashbacks to debates with idiotic Naderites in 2000. I can’t do this again.

• Wisconsin Recall: Let’s talk about Randy Hopper. If you’ll click the link, you can hear a ridiculously misleading radio ad that he’s just gone up with. The lying isn’t the point – it’s the fact that he’s on the defensive, a place you never want to be. And he knows, it, too – which is why he’s gone out and hired Jeff Harvey, who most recently managed Rep. Dave Reichert’s (WA-08) successful campaign last year. That’s a pretty big gun to bring in to a state lege race, so how can Hopper afford something like that? Well, state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald and several lackeys (including recall target Alberta Darling) were in DC last night, picking up cash at a high-dollar fundraiser held at Haley Barbour’s lobbying firm (more-or-less in exchange for gunning through that infamous bit of right-to-work legislation). The optics couldn’t be better! But cold, sweet cash can move mountains.

In related news, HuffPo’s Sam Stein tries to track down elusive information about the state of the attempted recalls of Democratic senators. It sounds like it’s going poorly: An uncoordinated mess by different groups which launched different efforts at different times. The Wisconsin Republican Party has refused to get involved, and apparently the recall has been whittled down to just three target senators (from the original eight). I would not be hugely surprised if they would up with zero.

• Philly Mayor: This is pretty funny: Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter faces no real primary opposition, but he’s still trying to bounce the crazy brother of former Mayor John Street, Milton, from the ballot. Among other things, Nutter is alleging that Street doesn’t meet the residency requirements, which say that candidates have to live in the city for three years prior to the election. Where was Street? Serving a 30-month sentence in federal prison on tax evasion charges – in Kentucky.

• SF Mayor: SurveyUSA has a poll out for the San Francisco mayoral race slated for this November. SF uses instant run-off voting (IRV), so SUSA asked people to pick their first, second, and third choices. Interim Mayor Ed Lee (who filled in for Gavin Newsom when he won the Lt. Gov. race last fall) says he isn’t running but actually gets the most first-choice votes. Here’s the full field:

Ed Lee, interim Mayor, 17%

Michaela Alioto-Pier, former Board of Supervisors member, 12%

Leeland Yee, State Senator, 11%

David Chiu, Board of Supervisors President, 10%

Dennis Herrera, City Attorney, 9%

Bevan Dufty, former Supervisor, 8%

Click through the link to see second and third choices.

• DCCC: Steve Israel talked a bunch with the Hotline about candidate recruitment. The most interesting thing is his “alumni association” of former members of Congress who are thinking about running again. He holds “semi-regular” (Hotline’s phrase) conference calls with “the vast majority of former members.” Israel says that in recent weeks, interest and attendance has spiked, and I have to guess that recent Democratic enthusiasm inspired heavily by protests in the Midwest has been a factor. Israel also insists that ex-MoCs who have closed down their campaign accounts or taken lobbying jobs are not necessarily taking themselves out of the game; he sympathetically argues that some folks simply need the cash. Of course, optics aside, K Street might just seem a lot more comfortable than the campaign trail grind to many of these folks

• DNC: The usual unnamed Democrats are telling Politico they think Ted Strickland is a “strong contender” to replace Tim Kaine at the DNC if the latter decides to run for the Senate in Virginia. I think the world of Strickland, but I’d hate to see his considerable talents get muzzled at the DNC. I just don’t think that a proud populist is going to be able to speak his mind while at the Obama DNC.

• Votes: Dave Catanese has a run-down on the House members seeking (or likely to seek) statewide office and how they voted on the most recent temporary budget bill. A big swath of Republicans voted “no” (i.e., against their party), after having previously voted for the prior continuing resolution, likely out of fears of getting teabagger (because the bills don’t cut spending enough). Meanwhile, several Democrats in the same boat all voted “yes.”

• WATN?: My word:

A seven-count indictment accuses Tom Ganley, a high-profile auto dealer and onetime congressional candidate, of kidnapping a 39-year-old Cleveland woman and having sexual contact with her.

Ganley, 68, faces three felony charges of gross sexual imposition, and single counts of kidnapping, abduction, solicitation, and menacing by stalking, according to Ryan Miday, a spokesman for County Prosecutor Bill Mason.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Mississippi: Looks like Lt. Gov. and gubernatorial aspirant Phil Bryant is getting his ass handed to him. Bryant attempted to interfere with the state Senate’s attempt to draw a new map by instead offering his own. Bryant’s plan was rejected by the Senate (which we noted on Tuesday). Now, the Senate’s original plan has been adopted by the House. So it looks like an incumbent-protection deal has been reached, with the Democratic-held House and the Republican-controlled Senate each getting their way. But even with a Dem gerrymander, you’ve got to believe it’s only a matter of time before the House falls, too.

• General: Politico has a piece discussing the GOP’s overall strategy of playing it safe with redistricting this decade, and to avoid “dummymanders” like the one in Pennsylvania which proved (at least temporarily) disastrous to the party.

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos.)

We asked our pollster, Public Policy Polling, to test the waters in all eight Republican-held state Senate districts in Wisconsin which are currently the target of recall efforts. PPP went into the field over the weekend, and the numbers we got back are very interesting. I’ve summarized the key results in the table below.

We asked a battery of questions in each poll (links to full results are at the end of this post). One basic question asked whether respondents approve of the job performance of each senator-those numbers are in the first two columns after each incumbent’s name. Four senators have negative ratings, and one is even-not particularly welcome news for Republicans.

We also asked whether respondents support or oppose the idea of recalling their senators. As you can see in the next pair of columns, this question doesn’t test as well-pluralities say they favor recall in just three districts-but in a way, it’s the least important question we asked. As long as canvassers collect enough valid signatures, a recall election will happen automatically under Wisconsin law. So while this is helpful information to have, it is far from dispositive, especially when contrasted with the next pair of columns.

“Vote Incumbent” and “Vote Democrat” summarize data from our most critical question. We asked poll-takers whether, in a hypothetical election that would be held later this year, they’d support the incumbent (whom we mentioned by name), or his/her “Democratic opponent.” (This sort of question is often described as testing a “generic Democrat.”) Here, the results give us reason to be cautiously optimistic.

Three Republican incumbents actually trail “generic Dem”: Luther Olsen, Randy Hopper, and Dan Kapanke. Two more have very narrow leads and garner less than 50% support: Rob Cowles and Sheila Harsdorf. And one more, Alberta Darling, holds a clear lead but is still potentially vulnerable. (Two recall-eligible senators, Mary Lazich and Glenn Grothman, sit in extremely red districts and look to have safe leads.) These numbers suggest we have a chance to make five and possibly six recall races highly competitive.

But a key thing to remember, though, is that if any of these senators have to face a recall election, we’ll need an actual candidate to run against each of them. In that regard, Wisconsin’s recalls are very different from California’s, where in 2003 voters were simply asked if they wanted to remove Democratic Gov. Gray Davis from office. Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected (with less than a majority) by means of a separate ballot question. In my view, California’s system makes it easier to boot an office-holder, because at bottom, the first question simply asks if you’d prefer some other-any other-alternative. If your answer was “yes,” you then had your choice on the second question, whether it was Arnold (R) or Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante (D) or Gary Coleman (?). In Wisconsin, if a recall election makes it on to the ballot, there is no California-style first question-we go directly to a head-to-head between candidates (with a possible stop along the way for primaries). So for a recall to succeed, we’ll need to convince voters to support a real live Democrat-and that means we’ll have to recruit some good candidates.

As the recall process moves forward, you’ll want to bookmark this link and keep it handy. It’s a chart of the 2004 & 2008 presidential results in each state Senate district in Wisconsin. While not a perfect measurement, the presidential numbers offer a clear baseline for a rough-cut assessment of how competitive each district is likely to be. Of course, many other factors are involved, but if you click the link, you’ll understand immediately why Kapanke is in such trouble – he’s in the bluest district held by a Republican, one that went 61% for Obama and 53% for Kerry. A little further down the list, you’ll see that Olsen, Cowles, Hopper, Harsdorf, and Darling all occupy districts with roughly similar presidential results that hover in swingy territory, so you can see why at least the first four are at risk. Darling’s stronger performance is somewhat surprising, given that senators in comparable districts all do worse, but even she is not out of the woods. Bringing up the rear are Lazich and Grothman, who holds the most Republican seat in the entire state. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which either of them could fall.

One final detail: You’ll notice that in the table up above, the last column reads “Number of Responses.” That refers to how many people actually completed our poll when we called them. If you’re familiar with electoral polling at all, those numbers are simply eye-popping, particularly for state senate districts. Our target was 600 to 800 respondents per poll, and yet we got well into the two thousand range for all but one of them (and even that outlier had over 1,300). What does this mean? The only reasonable conclusion is that an unusually high proportion of Wisconsinites are tuned into this conflict, and when given the opportunity to make their opinions heard, they jumped at the chance. While we can’t yet say for sure whether the enthusiasm gap has been erased, we do know that folks in Wisconsin are very definitely paying attention.

And so, of course, are we. As the situation warrants, we’ll revisit these districts and test the poll numbers again. For now, though, we wait on the outcome of the petition drive to force these recall elections in the first place. Then the battle will really begin.

Full Results: Cowles | Darling | Harsdorf | Olsen | Hopper | Grothman | Lazich | Kapanke

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/10-13, Ohio voters, Dec. 2010 in parens):

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (43)

Jon Husted (R): 34 (38)

Undecided: 18 (18)

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (43)

Jim Jordan (R): 30 (35)

Undecided: 21 (22)

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (40)

Mary Taylor (R): 30 (38)

Undecided: 21 (22)

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 48

Josh Mandel (R): 32

Undecided: 21

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 48

Steve LaTourette (R): 30

Undecided: 22

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49

Drew Carey (R): 34

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Some days, I get out of bed and have to think about which Republican it is I hate the most. Usually, though, I don’t, because it just winds up being John Kasich. But today, if Public Policy Polling is right about these numbers, then John Kasich is my new BFF – and Sherrod Brown’s, too. I always like seeing a d-bag like Kasich suffer, but when that also helps a great progressive like Brown, well hell, it’s a great day for America! Tom notes three key points:

1) There are more undecided Republicans than Democrats, so these mostly no-name GOP candidates have more room to grow – but at 48 or 49 points, Brown is already very close to victory.

2) In December, Brown was tied among independents with his potential opponents. Now he has sizable leads – for instance, 18 points against Lt. Gov. (and former Auditor) Mary Taylor.

3) Similarly, Democrats are coming home. Brown was just 75-15 among members of his own party versus Taylor; now he’s 86-3. Brown may not have much crossover appeal, but at this point, neither do the Republicans.

I’ll add another observation: PPP asked respondents whom they voted for in 2008. The answer: 49% Obama, 46% McCain. That’s very close to Obama’s actual 4-point margin. While I’d bet that not all of these Obama voters will pull the lever for him a second time, this does demonstrate that the 2012 electorate is looking a hell of a lot more like 2008 than 2010. If that holds, then we might not do too badly.

• AZ-Sen: Is Mike Lee hoping to turn into Jim DeMint 2.0? The Utah Republican and teabagger extraordinaire announced his second out-of-state endorsement, this time of Rep. Jeff Flake, running to succeed Jon Kyl. (Last week he endorsed Ted Cruz in TX-Sen.) Flake’s an interesting choice for Lee: his extreme anti-earmark rhetoric is probably appealing to teabaggers, but many of his other views are anathema to them. (In fact, he didn’t even show his face at a local teabagger convention a few weeks ago.) As for Lee, unless he starts backing up his words with real money (like DeMint does), then I’m going to stop caring about him very soon.

• CT-Sen: Rep. Chris Murphy just rolled out the Honeycomb™ of endorsements – as in, it’s not small, no no no. All four of his fellow members of Congress – Rosa DeLauro, John Larson, Joe Courtney, and Jim Himes – gave Murphy their backing yesterday. His opponent in the Democratic primary, Susan Bysiewicz, offered a weirdly churlish response, saying “There is no doubt that Congressman Chris Murphy has a lot of support in the inner hallways of Washington.” Uh, does she really want to be dissing well-regarded figures like caucus chair Larson et al.?

• FL-Sen: Jebus, this is really getting down into the weeds here: ex-Sen. George LeMieux is considering (considering!) hiring a pollster! WOW! Slow news day doesn’t begin to describe it.

• HI-Sen: Is there anyone other than Haley Barbour who doesn’t think that working as a lobbyist is now a huge 20-lb. goiter around the neck of anyone who wants to seek elective office? Well, Charles Djou seems to be hoping Barbour is right. A Bloomberg News report that he and ex-Rep. Walt Minnick of Idaho have started a lobbying firm is only “sort of” true, says Djou. He goes on to add that he’s not moving back to DC and that “I am only serving as an advisor with Congressman Minnick and really haven’t done much of anything other than give him occasional advice.” Uh huh. Well, look, I’d rather live in Hawaii, too, but this namby-pamby b.s. is not really going to cut it if Djou is actually staying home because he wants to run for the Senate this cycle.

On the other side of the aisle, here’s a new name in the mix: State Senate Vice President Donna Mercado Kim (D) says she’s forming an exploratory committee so that she can poll the race, explaining she’ll decide at that point whether she wants to get in. While no Democrat has taken the plunge yet, Kim would almost certainly face a field of serious heavyweights.

• MA-Sen: Guy Cecil alert! Okay, yeah, this is nothing like a Biden alert! – Cecil is the executive director of the DSCC, and he’s coming up to Boston to meet with party leaders and other Democratic bigwigs to discuss the race against Sen. Scott Brown. No word of any specific recruiting meetings, but I’d be surprised if some weren’t in the offing.

• MI-Sen (PDF): Unfortunately this EPIC•MRA poll got wedged beneath the couch cushions a couple of weeks ago, but I found it (along with Sid Leiken’s mom’s cell phone) when I went hunting for the remote. Anyhow, they showed Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) inching out ex-Rep. (and 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary loser) Pete Hoekstra by a 44-42 margin. (Hoekstra has yet to announce a run.) When this poll first came out, a lot of folks pointed out that the sample composition seems whack. I’ll also observe that the pronunciation guides in the poll script for both names are wrong. They told their interviewers to pronounce them STAB-now and HOKE-struh. (Click links for proper pronunciation.)

• MO-Sen: No one must be more pleased at Republican Rep. Todd Akin’s evolving change of heart about a Senate run than Democrat Russ Carnahan. In The Fix’s words, Akin is now “actively considering” the race – which is, by my counting, his fourth different stance on whether he’s interested. As for Carnahan, if Akin’s House seat opens up, that may mean the Dem’s 3rd CD seat gets spared in redistricting.

• MT-Sen: I’ve been disappointed at how meekly the teabaggers seem to have reacted to Rep. Denny Rehberg’s coronation as the de facto Republican nominee in Montana, so even though this is purely a rumor, I’m at least pleased to see it. Blogger Don Pogreba says he’s heard that Rob Natelson, a hardcore conservative law professor who twice sought the GOP nomination for governor, is polling the race. The big red flag, though, is that Natelson moved to Colorado last year, as Pogreba acknowledges. Tea Party Express, Club for Growth – where are you?

• NV-Sen, NV-02: Well, that was quick. Everyone who thought Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki wouldn’t challenge Rep. Dean Heller in the GOP primary, you were right. Not only that, Krolicki offered his endorsement to Heller yesterday, just hours after Heller made his entry into the race official. Krolicki did say he’s considering a run for Heller’s NV-02 seat, though.

As for that 2nd CD race, Jon Ralston said he’s seen three different internal polls in recent days, all of which show Sharron Angle doing poorly in a one-on-one fight against Krolicki (and also against Heller for Senate). Ralston says he can’t divulge the numbers, but he now thinks that Angle – whom he had previously considered “the favorite” for NV-02 – would need a multi-way primary to have a chance at the nomination.

And finally, here’s some welcome – and rare – news about the Dem field: Dave Wasserman says that state Treasurer Kate Marshall, who had previously been talked about as a possible Senate candidate, is considering the race in the 2nd district. Wasserman also reports that state Dems are thinking about a plan to pack Republicans into 3rd CD Rep. Joe Heck’s district so as to make a more amenable 2nd CD for the likes of Marshall.

• PA-Sen: Another Republican Some Dude has entered the race against Sen. Bob Casey. As Philadelphia Weekly puts it: “Her name’s Laureen Cummings, she’s the head of the Scranton Tea Party and, like members of the Tea Party, she considers herself a ‘patriot.’ She also believes Congress needs more patriots and patriots her patriot every patriot morning.” And as our own Brian Valco puts it: “Because she’s the head of the Scranton Tea Party, expect a Wall Street Journal write-up and FNC primetime interview soon enough.”

• VA-Sen: This is looking really pathetic. After the DNC swore that Tim Kaine did not tell a class at the University of Richmond that he was running for Senate, the school’s newspaper is saying that it has “confirmed that he told the class that he had made his decision.” Whoever is telling the truth, this is just some small-time shit which really doesn’t seem like the kind of thing someone experienced in running professional campaigns would be engaged in. I mean, how many different times has Kaine uttered something that could be interpreted or mis-interpreted or re-interpreted or mal-interpreted? This is just not the sort of shtick I’d expect from someone supposedly steeped in the “No Drama Obama” ethos. Enough of the games.

• NC-Gov: Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R), who has widely been expected to seek a rematch against Gov. Bev Perdue since forever, is kinda-sorta starting to staff up. Several political hands are “advising” him now (though only one is on payroll), including his 2008 campaign manager (who is working on a volunteer basis).

• ND-Gov: This is a nice – and to me, unexpected – piece of news: Former Rep. Earl Pomeroy, who lost a tough race last year, is apparently considering a run for governor this year, at least according to the chair of the North Dakota Democratic Party, Mark Schneider. Pomeroy recently took a job at the DC firm of Alston & Bird (erm, what was I saying about lobbyists earlier?), though Schneider says Pomeroy told him he’d rather live in his home state than Washington.

• UT-Gov: Utah has another gubernatorial election next year, despite having just held one last year. That’s because the 2010 election was a special, to fill the remaining years in ex-Gov. John Huntsman’s term. (Huntsman of course resigned to become Obama’s ambassador to China, and is now on the entertaining quest of winning the GOP’s presidential nomination.) Anyhow, Gary Herbert, who inherited the job when Huntsman stepped down and then won last November, faces voters again in 2012 – but predictably, he’s found a way to piss off the teabaggers. He’s planning to sign an immigration bill which creates a guest worker program, but the teanuts are calling it an “amnesty.” They want to boot Herbert, but we’ll see if their bark has any bite. (My guess: no.)

• CA-36: Rep. John Garamendi and former Rep. Diane Watson both endorsed fellow Dem Janice Hahn in the special election today. Watson used to represent a Los Angeles district (the 33rd) until her retirement last year. Garamendi hails from the Bay Area up north, but perhaps has a larger profile on account of being a former Lt. Gov. Meanwhile, Debra Bowen put out a press release touting the endorsement of former L.A. city controller and state inspector general Laura Chick. Chick, who has a reputation as reformer, originally endorsed Bowen via Twitter last month.

• FL-22: Some Dude “no not that” Patrick Murphy filed to run against lunatic Allen West as a Democrat. The only other time I mentioned this guy, the media account I linked described him as some kind of construction executive, so I thought, maybe rich dude? But The Hill says he’s a 28-year-old accountant, so I’m guessing probably not. (That prior piece also said Steve Israel was meeting with him on a recruiting trip, which is sorta surprising.)

• FL-25: Politico has another entry in the “David Rivera is doomed” file, but they bury the lede on the only really new information, which is a list of candidates that unnamed “Republicans have begun mentioning” as possible replacements. One of them has come up before on SSP: state Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla. The others are political consultant Carlos Curbelo, state Rep. J.C. Planas, and state Sen. Anitere Flores. Planas and Flores (the only woman in this group) both refused to rule out the possibility of a run.

• NY-26: This amuses me: Crazy Jack Davis is, as you know, petitioning his way on to the ballot as an independent. But if you do that in New York, you actually get to create your own (very temporary) party, complete with funny name. (Does anyone NOT think that Rent Is Too Damn High?) Davis’s choice? The Tea Party. Actual teabaggers are pissed that he’s ganking their good (lol) name. And actual teabagger David Bellavia, who is also petitioning, has been reduced to picking the “Federalist Party.” What’s next, the Whigs? Oh wait, we already had that.

• Wisconsin Recall: The complete results of Daily Kos’s polls of all eight recall target districts are out, and the numbers are at least somewhat promising – but go judge for yourself. Also of note, the tradmed is apparently confirming a story that started circulating on some blogs a few days ago – namely, that vulnerable Sen. Randy Hopper left his wife to move in with a 25-year-old mistress (a Republican consultant, of course) in Madison. In addition to the salacious angle, this is also potentially a problem because that means he may now be living outside his district, which would be against state law (depending on certain other circumstances). In any event, it don’t look good – and the kicker is that, according to Reid Wilson, Hopper’s estranged wife signed his recall petition!

• IL-St. Sen.: So sorry – no Scott Lee Cohen!

• Miami-Dade County: Just brutal: Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Alvarez and Commissioner Natacha Seijas were recalled from office last night with something like 88% voting to boot them. A Miami friend of mine summed it up thusly: Alvarez “raised taxes, then raised his staff’s salary, then got himself a luxury car at government expense when they already provide him two SUVs.” Smart thinking!

• Special Elections: Heeere’s Johnny (Longtorso):

Judy Schwank held Pennsylvania’s SD-11 pretty easily yesterday for the Democrats, ending up with a 58-42 margin over Republican Larry Medaglia.

• Elections: A number of states are trying to save money and do what’s only sensible: consolidate their presidential primaries with their congressional & state primaries. Proposals include making the former later (AL, CA), or making the former later and the latter earlier (MO). Other states are considering switching to caucuses (boo!): KS, MA & WA.

• Virginia Redistricting: You may remember the redistricting contest between teams at various Virginia colleges from a few months ago; all of their finished projects are now on display, in case you need some inspiration for your own Dave’s App tinkerings. One other rumor that might scramble all those careful map-makings, though: Dave Wasserman is saying that the DOJ might force Virginia to junk its likely compromise map and proceed with two separate VRA seats, one based in Hampton Roads and the other in Richmond. That would probably cost the GOP an additional seat, most likely VA-04’s Randy Forbes, who already has one of the most African-American-heavy seats held by a GOPer.

• CT-Sen: Paulist gazillionaire (and very failed 2010 Senate candidate) Peter Schiff says he’s moving to Florida because a proposed increase in the state’s top income tax rate from 6.5% to 6.7% means, according to Schiff: “Basically, what they’re saying is, ‘If you stay in Connecticut, you’re going to get mugged. You’re going to get raped.'” THAT’S EXACTLY RIGHT. A TWO-TENTHS PERCENT TAX HIKE ON THE RICH IS EXACTLY LIKE RAPE. Schiff then asked out loud, “The question is, do I really have a political future in Connecticut?” NO YOU DO NOT.

Meanwhile, despite the presence of two very big names already in the race, another Democrat says he’s thinking about getting in: state Rep. William Tong, the first Asian American elected to CT’s General Assembly and also a former law student of Barack Obama’s, says he’ll decide “shortly.” This sounds more like a reputation/name rec-enhancing move that a serious bid, though, as Tong is only in his late 30s.

• DE-Sen: The Christine O’Donnell watch is on, with the key (the only) question being whether she’ll launch a hopeless challenge to Gov. Jack Markell next year, or whether she’ll wait to launch a hopeless rematch against Sen. Chris Coons in 2014.

• FL-Sen: So here’s how you work up to a Senate bid these days. First, get your name circulated in early, unsourced media reports about “potential” candidates – you know, the kind of spitballing pieces which just list out various names based on speculation. Then, have a surrogate (probably on a not-for-attribution basis – they can call `em “an individual close to” you) tell the press they know you’re thinking about the race. Then, do some interviews yourself where you admit to actually considering a run, but that you need to discuss it with your family first/wait until the legislative session is over/see how the field develops/get the results of a poll back, etc. Then, once you’ve finally done all of this, you can take the bold step of… forming an exploratory committee. That’s where we finally are with Republican state Rep. (and former Majority Leader) Adam Hasner. Exciting, isn’t it?

• IN-Sen: This probably means more for the endorser than the endorsee, but embattled Sen. Dick Lugar (he’ll be referred to as “embattled” for the next year-plus) just got the backing of his home-state governor, Mitch Daniels. While in a more civilized age, this might be done just as common courtesy, the threat of getting teabagged often has Republicans clamming up when they get near their wobblier comrades. (Fellow Hoosier Sen. and all-around loser Dan Coats (R) has refused to support Lugar.) But like I said, this is a bigger deal for Daniels, who has presidential aspirations (yet is probably as wobbly as Lugar himself): the teabaggers are already calling for his head.

• MA-Sen: More staffing emails in the MA-Sen race-is this going to be the next frontier in tea leaf-reading? Anyhow, consultant Dorie Clark of Sommerville sent a job posting out into the aether seeking a press secretary, but refused to tell the Globe who she’s working for. The Globe notes that Rep. Mike Capuano (who lost in the Dem special primary in 2009) is also from Sommervile-as is activist Bob Massie, but he says the posting wasn’t on his behalf.

• ME-Sen: The Hotline already did this for Dick Lugar, so now they do it for Olympia Snowe – that is, they take a look at what it would take for her to run as an independent. The answer:

If Snowe wishes to run as an independent, she must file a withdrawal from the Republican Party by March 1, 2012-more than 3 months before the June 10 primary. If she did withdraw, she would need between 4,000 and 6,000 petitions from registered voters by June 1 to get on the ballot as an independent candidate.

A Snowe spokesperson insists, though, that his boss is running as a Republican. In other Maine news, PPP has one of its scorecards out (PDF), finding Gov. Paul LePage already underwater with approvals of 43-48. A narrow 47-45 plurality supports gay marriage (which was narrowly rejected by voters in 2009).

• MT-Sen: All politics definitely is not local anymore (if it ever was), but sometimes it still is. A looming issue in the Montana Senate race? The status of the gray wolf, which is on the Endangered Species List but which Montanans want to start hunting. (Farmers complain the wolves kill livestock, while hunters complain the wolves kill elk – which they want to kill themselves.) Roll Call explains the fault line between Republican Denny Rehberg and Dem Jon Tester:

Rehberg’s proposal would eliminate wolves from the list forever, and not just in the Big Sky State but nationwide. Tester prefers allowing wolves to be hunted in Montana and Idaho, while placing hunting control in the hands of state officials with federal oversight.

• NV-Sen: The Fix’s Rachel Weiner says that that unnamed (and unquoted!) “Democratic strategists” are saying they might actually prefer someone like Ross Miller to Rep. Shelley Berkley, who has already been elected statewide and doesn’t have “strong ties” to Las Vegas, which I guess is a potential liability.

• VA-Sen: God, could the Tim Kaine watch get any more tedious? I can’t even bear to go into the details of yesterday’s silliness, but now a DNC spokesman is saying that Kaine is “increasingly likely” to run. Whatever. Kaine did say last weekend at that Rick Boucher dinner that “I think we’ll make the decision this week,” but “when we’ll announce it I’m not quite sure.” Groan. I have no problem with politicians taking their time, but this endless media shtick is really tiresome. My personal feeling is that the beltway bloviators are unsually interested in this bit of kremlinology because Kaine is “of” their world in a way that few potential candidates ever are.

• WI-Sen: Is this the best we can do? Really? An unnamed “Senate Democratic leadership aide” said of Herb Kohl’s re-election intentions: “We’re pretty confident he’s going to do it.” As I’ve said before, I think you either get the answer locked down early, before reporters start asking (and hell, it’s an obvious question, given Kohl’s extremely… shall we say understated approach to governance and his age) – or you go out and say, “We know Herb will make a decision when he’s ready.” Playing the guessing game makes you look like a chump.

• LA-Gov: Progressive blog Daily Kingfish is reporting, based on their own sources, that Democrat Caroline Fayard, contrary to other reports, is “seriously contemplating” (their words) a gubernatorial run. Fayard, who lost last year’s Lt. Gov. race, is also said to be considering a run for Secretary of State. Note that Fayard did link to the Kingfish story on her own website.

• OH-Gov: Ah, it warms my heart: The University of Cincinnati finds that Republican Gov. John Kasich’s job approval is just 40-47, with independents giving him an ugly 30-52 rating. Loves it.

• WA-Gov: The basic rule of thumb about Republicanism in Washington is that you can get elected statewide if and only if you’re moderate and technocratic enough that the “R” next to your name can get overlooked; that’s how Rob McKenna got elected AG twice. So McKenna’s decision to throw his lot in with the multi-state anti-HCR suit spearheaded by Ken Cuccinelli always seemed a baffling act of pulling the curtain away on his, well, Republicanism… and now he’s in full backpedal mode, with an explanation so contorted (something about how he actually likes everything in the bill except the individual mandate, and it’s all the Dems fault for forgetting to include the severability clause that led to the Vinson ruling) that it’s not going to win over any Dems and only going to make him look weaker to the local teabaggery.

The Seattle PI also points out how little room for error McKenna has with his needle-threading, in a state where the Republican base, as a percentage of the state’s population, is the smallest of any state not in the Northeast. The numbers are 41% Dem base, 31% swing voters, and 29% GOP base. In case you’re wondering, those numbers are from a Nate Silver post from last week, using Annenberg Election Survey data for every state; if you didn’t see the piece, please go back and take a look, as it’s remarkable even by Nate’s usual high standards. (Crisitunity)

• CA-36: Finally da herb come around: Gov. Jerry Brown announced that the special all-candidate top-two “primary” to fill Jane Harman’s seat will be held on May 17th. If no one can get 50%+1 that day, then the race goes to a run-off between the top two vote-getters-which seems very likely-regardless of party. (So yes, we could have a D vs. D second round.)

• FL-22: Looks like Ron Klein won’t be seeking a rematch against Allen West in 2012: Reid Wilson twitterizes that the former Dem congressman is taking a job with a Florida lobbying firm.

• MO-03: Is there a more talked-about likely redistricting victim than Russ Carnahan? I guess he has a somewhat odd combination of a famous name + junior status, so maybe that explains it. Anyhow, Carnahan says he’s “100% focused” on seeking re-election, regardless of what happens with redistricting, and that he isn’t thinking about a Lt. Gov. run (an idea which came up in the media recently).

• NY-13: We mentioned a very similar story a little while back, but here’s more confirmation that freshman Republican Mike Grimm actually wants to win re-election: He’s calling on his fellows GOPers to support another short-term government funding bill, though he manages to sneak some Pelosi-bashing in there as well. The wingnuts don’t want to play ball because (sayeth The Hill) the continuing resolution “does not contain riders defunding Planned Parenthood and the healthcare reform law.” Gooood luck with that. Anyhow, while I never want to rule anything out, I feel like teabaggers would have a hard time taking Grimm down. Hopefully I’m wrong!

• Wisconsin Recall: Greg Sargent says that the Wisconsin Democratic Party is telling him they’ve collected 45% of the signatures “necessary to hold recall elections.” Greg also notes that only a quarter of the time period for gathering petitions has elapsed. However, I put the exact phrase in quotes because it’s not clear from the piece whether Dems are benchmarking off the legal minimum, or whether they are using a higher target – which you need, because some signatures are invariably going to be found invalid. Still, this sounds like a pretty good pace to me.

Also today, look for full polling results a little later today from Daily Kos in each of the eight GOP-held recall targets.

• Special elections: Johnny Longtorso (who else?):

Just one seat is up today (the last special election for the month of March): Pennsylvania’s Reading-based SD-11, where the long-time incumbent recently passed away. The Democrat running is Judy Schwank, a former Berks County Commissioner, while the Republicans have Larry Medaglia, the Berks County Register of Wills. Trivia note: Register of Wills is an elected office in only three states, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. It’s a pretty Democratic district-it went about 60-40 for Obama-but of course these low-turnout elections can produce weird results.

It sounds like Republicans have given up, though: Medaglia’s paid media campaign has gone dark.

• WATN?: Blarggh….

Redistricting Roundup

• Arizona: This overview piece of Arizona’s redistricting situation is mostly speculation, but it does go into a discussion of where recent growth has been, per the newest census numbers.

• California: Crisitunity already said as much, but at least one expert agrees with us that the Bay Area is pretty much going to have to lose a seat: Tony Quinn, an editor of the California Target Book, a well-known Golden State political publication.

• Iowa: The Des Moines Register has a fun little Iowa redistricting tool you can play around with. Of course, the process is a lot easier in the Hawkeye State because state law requires that whole counties be kept intact. (Hat tip: Dave Wasserman)

• Mississippi: A big black eye for Lt. Gov., state Senate President, and gubernatorial hopeful Phil Bryant: The Republican-controlled Senate voted down his proposed map for that body and instead voted in favor of the the map that senators themselves originally drew. A key point of contention is the Hattiesburg area, which would get turned into a majority-minority district under the Senate plan but would remain cracked under Bryant’s.

• Nevada: Some Democrats are rooting for a Shelley Berkley Senate run for reasons other than what you might expect: If her 1st CD seat opens up, that makes redistricting a lot easier for Dems in the state legislature eager to carve her seat up. The piece also mentions two names who might succeed Berkley in the House if she makes the jump: Assembly Speaker John Oceguera and Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford.

• AZ-Sen: This is amusingly insane. I’m certainly all for it!

• CA-Sen: Our long national nightmare is finally over: Meg Whitman says she will “definitely not” run against Sen. Diane Feinstein (D) next year. Rather, she says she’s going to spend time campaigning for fellow rich guy Mitt Romney. (Also, here’s an amusing tidbit: Earlier this year, she joined the board of none other than Hewlett-Packard – the company her 2010 Republican ticket-mate Carly Fiorina nearly ran into the ground.)

• CT-Sen: In an interesting development, fans of magical realism have been making a push for Borges to enter the Connecticut Senate race. Ah, wait. What’s that? Fuck. So, um, former state Treasurer Frank Borges (D), who left office in 1993, says supporters are asking him to run, and while’s he’s thinking about it, he’s set no timetable for a decision. Borges is CEO of a private equity firm (so I’m guessing he’s pretty rich), and he’d be the state’s first black senator if successful.

• FL-Sen: Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) is starting to sound like a “no” for the Senate race. Now that he’s scored a spot on the Ways & Means Committee, he says he’s less likely to seek a promotion. In fact, he very explicitly said: “If this hadn’t happened, I would have been looking to do something else.” That sort of talk has to make you figure that the GOP’s takeover of the House has actually been bad news for one Republican: NRSC chair John Cornyn.

In much sillier (and related) news, Cornyn told The Hill that he had tried to recruit former congressman and current MSNBC host Joe Scarborough to run against Bill Nelson. Undoubtedly, this made make Rep. Connie Mack a little hot under the collar, because the NRSC wigged out and Cornyn weirdly tried to claim the story was “not true,” even though Scarborough confirmed it. Rather, said Cornyn, he had been asking Joescar about a potential Senate run in… New York. (The Atlanta-born, Alabama-educated, Florida-elected Scarborough’s tv show is based in NYC.) Then, the NRSC took a dump on Joe, saying: “There are already a number of far stronger candidates looking at the Florida Senate race….” Whoops!

Also, there’s a tenative Biden alert! – the VPOTUS supposedly will come down to Florida later this month to raise money for Bill Nelson.

• IA-Sen: Wingnut Bob Vander Plaats, who did surprisingly well against now-Gov. Terry Branstad in last year’s Republican gubernatorial primary (with an assist from some Democratic ratfuckers), was asked whether he’s contemplating a run against Sen. Tom Harkin in 2014. Said BVP: “I think about it daily. That doesn’t mean I’m going to run against him, Ok. I don’t know.”

• IN-Sen: Now this is fucking interesting. I’m just going to let SSP commenter Bob Bobson summarize the situation:

WISH-TV’s Jim Shella noted on his blog today that that there exists a hypothetical but plausible scenario in which state Democrats could sue to overturn the results of last year’s election for Secretary of State by arguing that Charlie White wasn’t a valid candidate for office. That’s not really anything new, and has been rumored in the Hoosier political press for a while.

What is new here is that Shella points out that such a lawsuit, were it ruled in favor of the Democrats, wouldn’t just remove White from office, but would also make the Republicans a “minor party” under state law. SSPers probably remember the whole [10]% threshold thing from the Colorado governor’s race last year where Dan Maes’ trainwreck candidacy nearly cost the Colorado Republicans their ballot position as a major party, and there’s a similar regulation at play here. The difference is that in Indiana, it’s the Secretary of State race that decides which parties are “major,” and the threshold is [also] 10%. If White’s candidacy is invalidated, though, that could mean that the Republicans, legally, received zero votes in the SoS race last year.

That outcome would also mean that their nominating process for statewide candidates for the next four years would be via convention and not primary. And that means Dick Lugar becomes the next Bob Bennett.

In related news, Sean Keefer, who as Deputy Secretary of State was no. 2 to Charlie White (and also served as his chief of staff, and before that, as his campaign manager) just resigned, and there’s a report that White’s spokesman will also quit. Even better: White staged a totally bizarro impromptu press conference on the courthouse steps after a hearing in which he pleaded not guilty to all charges. The presser only ended after White’s attorney told him to “shut up” and led him away by the elbow. Fun times!

• MA-Sen: Deborah Shah, a consultant to Newton Mayor Setti Warren, sent around an email (I’m guessing to some listservs) looking for college kids interested in working on a potential Warren Senate campaign, set to be staffing up at the end of April. (Aren’t most students stressing about finals at that point?) Shah says that “This is just the first step to make sure you’re prepared.”

• MI-Sen: Pete Hoekstra hasn’t yet said if one of these days a Congressman from Michigan’s gonna come back home and run a Senate race, but he expects to decide this spring. One tea leaf suggests he’s rather stay focused on his lame-ass-looking consulting firm: He just shuttered his House campaign account, which he could have instantly turned into a Senate fund.

• OH-Sen: In response to ex-Gov. Ted Strickland calling him “scurrilous,” “bigoted,” “reprehensible,” and “laughable,” the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel “said Strickland is a good person.” Maybe that makes Mandel look big, I dunno, but does it also make him look like a wuss to his biggest supporters, the teabag contingent? At the same q-and-a with other GOP elected officials, SoS Jon Husted (who has declined a run) said he’d like to see Mandel take on Sherrod Brown, while AG (and ex-Sen.) Mike DeWine much more amusingly said that a Brown-Mandel matchup would be “fascinating.” Is that Mr. Spock fascinating, or a trainwreck fascinating?

• AZ-08: Rep. Gabby Giffords’ doctors gave an update on the congresswoman’s recovery on Friday, and they sounded very upbeat about her progress (though they noted that it’s not a sure thing whether she’ll attend her husband’s space shuttle launch next month, contra what a staffer said last week). Meanwhile, 2010 Republican candidate Jesse Kelly, who very nearly beat Giffords, set up a new campaign committee for a potential rematch.

• CA-37: Though Rep. Laura Richardson (D) previously denied it, a letter of resignation sent by her former district scheduler suggests that the congresswoman is indeed the subject of an ethics probe, pertaining to misuse of staff. Now Richardson’s office is simply refusing to comment. The staffer’s letter is really brutal, citing “constant verbal and emotional abuse” and requests that she perform tasks “on the ethical borderline.” I can’t imagine Richardson has a very long future in Congress (she originally won office in a 2007 special with just 37% of the primary vote in this very blue district), so who do you think could replace her?

• NM-01, NM-Sen: State Sen. Eric Griego (D), who is considering a run for the House if fellow Dem Martin Heinrich decides to go for the Senate race, says he expects “the smoke to clear” by April or May, in terms of people making decisions about what they’re gonna do.

• NV-02: Jon Ralston says that retired Navy Commander Kirk Lippold is “in” the race for Nevada’s 2nd congressional district, which ought to have a very interesting GOP primary, at the least. Lippold, who was captain of the USS Cole when it was bombed by Al Qaeda a decade ago, was touted as a possible challenger to Harry Reid last year.

• NV-03: Freshman Rep. Joe Heck was the only Republican to vote against defunding the Federal Housing Administration Refinance Program (designed to help homeowners with underwater mortgages). Anticipating criticism, he put out a video press release (an actual video press release, not a “tv ad with a tiny buy designed to get free media attention”) defending his vote. Could Heck be worried about getting teabagged?

• NY-26: Republican nominee Jane Corwin just received the Independence Party’s nomination for the special election as well, and ya know, this is a pretty darn good demonstration of why the Democrats’ dithering on selecting a candidate has been a pretty dumb move. I mean, even if the IP wanted to endorse a Dem, they couldn’t! (Or at least, couldn’t do so yet.)

Anyhow, 2010 NY-Sen-A GOP primary loser (in other words, the guy who couldn’t beat the guy who got vaporized by Chuck Schumer) Gary Bernsten sent out an email asking supporters to help teabagger David Bellavia petition his way on to the ballot as an independent. I’d be surprised if this effort is successful, though – Bellavia has only until March 19 to collection 3,500 signatures. Crazy Jack Davis is doing the same thing, but at least he has a shot, since he’s putting his millions to work for him.

• SD-AL: I linked this story in the Pete Hoekstra item above (see MI-Sen), but ex-Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin has also closed her campaign account, suggesting that Steve Israel’s efforts to woo her into a rematch with Republican Kristi Noem haven’t been successful. The Fix has a long list of other Dems (and a few Repubs) who have shut down their FEC committees – click the link for the rest.

• TX-LG: Texas Ag. Comm’r Todd Staples isn’t ruling out a run for Lt. Gov., a seat which could become open if the current occupant, David Dewhurst, wins Kay Bailey Hutchison’s Senate seat. Other possible aspirants include Comptroller Susan Combs and Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson. (And yes, since this is Texas and everyone I just mentioned holds statewide office, that means they’re all Republicans.) While you might be wondering why we’re going so far down into the weeds here, the LG job is considered one of the most powerful in Texas (some like to say even more powerful that the governor’s), because the LG is also President of the state Senate.

• Wisconsin Recall: The DLCC just launched a TV ad against GOP state Sen. Luther Olsen, attacking him for flip-flopping to support Scott Walker’s anti-union legislation – though it does not mention anything about the recall effort which Olsen is (among others) the subject of. The ad (which you can watch here) is running in Green Bay, and a spokesman tells me that the buy is “about 1000 points.”

Also, check out this piece from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert, which begins:

Number of state lawmakers removed from office by recall in all of American history: 13.

Number of state lawmakers currently facing recall campaigns in Wisconsin: 16.

• Hawaii: In order to avoid another Charles Djou, the Hawaii House just passed a bill to institute instant runoff voting (aka IRV) for special Congressional elections. Of course, they could just hold primaries instead of jungle elections.

• WATN?: Scott Lee Cohen, the disastrous Lt. Gov. candidate whose utterly failed gubernatorial bid probably saved Pat Quinn’s ass, is hoping to replace ex-state Sen. Rickey Hendon, who resigned last month. Given that the replacement gets picked by a panel of Chicago Democratic Party committeemen, I’m guessing that Cohen’s chances are somewhere between zero and nil.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Idaho: At least one local expert is confirming what we observed last week: population shrinkage in the 2nd CD will likely require it to absorb the entire city of Boise, which is currently split between the state’s two districts.

• New Jersey: Richard Lee has some interesting historical details about the 1990 round of redistricting, focusing on two politicians who are still part of New Jersey’s congressional delegation today: Rep. Frank Pallone and Sen. Bob Menendez. Menendez’s federal career was launched when New Jersey’s loss of a seat led to the creation of an Hispanic-friendly district. Pallone, meanwhile, was targeted for elimination by his own party. Said one Republican: “I’d like to see Mr. Pallone defeated. But apparently I don’t want to see him defeated as much as the Democrats do.” Obviously, Pallone lived to fight another day.

Meanwhile, Rutgers Prof. (and state redistricting tiebreak vote) Alan Rosenthal supposedly put out a memo outlining his vision for a fair legislative map, reportedly leading state Dems to believe their vision is much more closely aligned with Rosenthal’s than is the Republicans’. But it doesn’t seem like this memo, if it exists, has been released online.

• AZ-Sen: I had sort of forgotten that J.D. Hayworth had said he was interested in running for Jon Kyl’s seat, but yeah, there he was, chatting up The Hill yesterday, and telling them that Jeff Flake has “delusions.” Jeff Flake is the one with the delusions? Anyhow, Hayworth refused to offer a timetable for his decision, and believe it or not, there’s actually one guy who cares: Joe Arpaio. As you’ll recall, the dipshit sheriff flip-flopped the other day and said that yeah, he’d like to continue pretending he’s interested in the race, but now he’s also saying that he’ll wait for Hayworth’s decision first. I’m not sure anyone has ever shown J.D. this much respect before!

• IN-Sen: Not only has Dick Lugar given no indication that he’s interested in running as an independent, but his flip-flopping cave on the House GOP budget bill is, to me, evidence that he plans to terminate his political life as a member of the Republican Party. Still, for fun, the National Journal looked at what it would take for Loogs to make the ballot as an indie. He’d need 35,000 signatures (2% of the vote cast in the most recent SoS election) – but he’d also have to drop out of the GOP primary, as Indiana has a so-called “sore loser” law which prevents someone who loses a primary from running in the general.

You might have also heard about newly-discovered issues Lugar’s voter registration. It came to light a few weeks ago that Lugar typically lives in a hotel in Indianapolis when he returns home (which reminds me a lot of Indiana’s other senator, Dan Coats, who preferred to spend his time in North Carolina). It also turns out that Lugar is registered to vote using the address of an old family home which was sold years ago. The senator’s spokesperson probably should have said something other than Lugar “remains a Hoosier in the eyes of the law.”

• MA-Sen: Newton Mayor Setti Warren told Wicked Local that he’ll make a decision on a Senate run “sometime in the spring.” (There words, not his.)

• MT-Sen: For those of you carping about the lack of Montana stories in the digest, here’s one: the Montana Retail Association and the Montana Convenience Store Association are running radio ads against Jon Tester, to, as Roll Call puts it, “dissuade him from delaying reforms to the debit card “swipe fees” that are scheduled to go into effect later this year.” NWOTSOTB (that’s No Word On The Size Of The Buy – remember it), but this ad seems much more genuinely issued-focused rather than some kind of attempt to bolster Tester’s opponent, Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg.

• MO-Sen: Ben Smith writes: “The questions around McCaskill’s flights are likely to be an issue in McCaskill’s re-election campaign next year.” Here, let me fix that for you: “The questions around McCaskill’s flights are likely to be made a fake non-issue by sensationalists like Ben Smith in McCaskill’s re-election campaign next year.” Hope that helps!

• NM-Sen: Well, someone at Roll Call is sleeping on concrete tonight: Lt. Gov. John Sanchez reportedly will not announce a decision about a Senate run until after the legislative session. That’s soon, though: March 19th.

• TX-Sen: John Cornyn says he won’t endorse in the very crowded field to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison. Local Republicans also say he isn’t engaging in any behind-the-scenes favoritism either.

• VA-Sen: Does anyone else remember the AP’s Charles Babington saying, back on Feb. 25th, that Tim Kaine would decide on a Senate run “within a week”? You should, because it was in the digest. But not, apparently, in real life, since the mind-numbingly painful Tim Kaine goes on (and on, and on). I think the Beltway media just have a particular fascination with this one, since Kaine is a DC figure and his next-door state always looms large. Annnyhow, Timmeh is attending a dinner in honor of ex-Rep. Rick Boucher in southwestern VA this weekend, but “an official who can speak for Kaine” tells Roll Call that her (his?) boss won’t be making any announcements this weekend. Just give us Tom Perriello already!

• AZ-Gov: Just watch the video and enjoy.

• LA-Gov: It’s from last week, but the New York Times had a good story on the dodgy campaign finance practices of the allegedly incorruptible (but obviously not) Bobby Jindal. If you are, say, a big telecommunications firm or an oil-and-gas giant and want to receive special treatment from the state of Louisiana, and you know contributions to the governor’s re-election campaign are capped at a measly five grand, you just make a plus-sized gift to Jindal’s wife’s charity and bam! there you go. Full details on this sordid practice at the link. Best ethics laws, my ass.

• OH-Gov, OH-17: Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan has been amping up his populist attacks on Gov. John Kasich and the Ohio GOP’s anti-labor and anti-middle class agenda (with the centerpiece being a the right-to-work piece of legislation known as SB5). Associates say he’s potentially gearing up for a run against Kasich in 2014, and notably, he’s being advised by ex-Gov. Ted Strickland. One Democratic operative speculates, though, that perhaps Ryan is trying to warn the GOP away from fucking with his district lines too much this year: if they forcibly turn him out of office in 2012, the 39-year-old Ryan will definitely be looking for a new job in 2014.

• WI-Gov: The Hotline asked Russ Feingold if he’d consider running against Scott Walker in a hypothetical recall election next year. An aide gave a typical non-answer, suggesting Feingold isn’t ruling it out, but noting that he’s teaching at Marquette Law School and writing a book at the moment.

• AZ-08: Hopefully this is a sign that Rep. Gabby Giffords’ recovery is going well: Not only will her husband, astronaut Mark Kelly, go up on the space shuttle next month (this long-planned mission is his last chance to do so before the shuttle fleet is retired), but she’ll be there to watch the launch.

• NV-02: Two scoops of plump juicy raisins for the Nevada News Bureau yesterday. First, they announced that Rep. Dean Heller (R) would be getting into the Senate race. Now they’re following up with a report that, according to their sources, state Sen. Mark Amodei (R) will run for the 2nd district seat. You may recall that Amodei, who is also the GOP state party chair, briefly ran for the Senate last year before realizing he didn’t stand a chance against Chicken Lady and Crazy Lady.

• PA-15: The conservative David Koch front group Americans for Prosperity is running radio ads (NWOTSOTB) in GOP Rep. Charlie Dent’s district, in the hopes of “encouraging” him not to stray from the Republican pack and start voting against signature agenda items in a bid to preserve his so-called “moderate” voting record. I like this, because pressure on GOP “moderates” in the 2005-08 timeframe helped deliver a number of seats to us. Hopefully the same pattern will pick up once again now that Republicans have the majority in the House and start acting recklessly.

• Wisconsin Recall: MoveOn has leaked some data from two Wisconsin polls SurveyUSA took for the group. MoveOn tested a generic recall question against two Republican state senators: Randy Hopper and Dan Kapanke. Only 43% said they’d vote for Hopper, while 54% said “someone else”; for Kapanke, it was 41-57. Since I know you’ve bookmarked SSP’s indispensible post that shows presidential election results by senate district, then you’re aware that Kapanke sits in the bluest district, while Hopper won by the narrowest margin in 2008 (just 0.2% – a result which was the subject of a recount).

Meanwhile, Dave Weigel notes that four liberal groups – MoveOn, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Democracy for America, and Daily Kos – have raised almost $2 million in support of the recall efforts.

• WI Sup. Ct.: As it happens, there’s another really important race going on in Wisconsin right now: a Democrat, JoAnne Kloppenburg, is challenging Republican state Supreme Court Justice David Prosser. The race is technically non-partisan, but Prosser used to be the Republican state House Majority Leader. More importantly, if Kloppenburg were to win, she’d shift the balance on the court from 3-4 to 4-3 in our favor, which could be crucial if the court is called upon to rule on any of Scott Walker’s legislative thuggery.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Mississippi: Yeah, this is definitely an example of saying the quiet part loud.

• Redistricting: While devoted Swingnuts will be familiar with much of this list, Aaron Blake has a good roundup of members of Congress who are potential redistricting victims – and who are deciding whether they’d rather jump (to another elective office) or get pushed (into oblivion).

• CA-Sen: We can probably rule out another Senate run by Chuck DeVore: he’s setting his sights lower… much, much lower. Chuck D is, in fact, forming an exploratory committee for Orange County’s Third District Board of Supervisors. An exploratory committee!

Somewhat related, yet another chart from Greg Giroux: The most recent Gov, Sen, and Pres numbers by CD in California, as well as key demographics highlights from the new census data.

• MA-Sen: And yet another Greg Giroux special. (If you’re not following this guy on Twitter, you are using Twitter wrong.) Alan Khazei (D) has formed a 527 exploratory committee “for a potential run for public office.” I’m not exactly clear, though, on why it’s a 527 rather than a normal FEC exploratory committee.

• MD-Sen: Remember when Dick Cheney ran the Republican operation to choose a vice presidential candidate in 2000… and picked himself? GOPer Eric Wargotz has managed to come up with an even more pathetic form of self-love: He’s created his own “Draft Eric Wargotz” page on Facebook. In case the name doesn’t ring a bell, he was 26-point roadkill for Barbara Mikulski last cycle, but now he wants the public to rapturously embrace a run against Maryland’s other Democratic senator, Ben Cardin. (By the way, this is my favorite comment so far.)

• ME-Sen: I meant to mention this in yesterday’s post on PPP’s poll, but in any event, state House Minority Leader Emily Cain (D), all of thirty years old and already on the verge of being term-limited out, isn’t ruling out a run against Olympia Snowe, but says it probably won’t happen. Even though she’s just barely eligible to run under the constitution, she’d has a bitchin’ campaign theme song just waiting to get rocked out.

• MO-Sen: I had a feeling things might wind up moving in this direction. Jan. 27:

However, the offices of Republican Reps. Blaine Luetkemeyer and Todd Akin told Roll Call that the Congressmen are not interested in running for the Senate.

Feb. 26:

“Some people want to draft me for Senate but you know engineers. It’s just one thing at a time,” said Akin, an engineer.

Mar. 9:

“I haven’t discounted it,” [Akin] told The Ballot Box on Tuesday night. “Some things you sort of put on your problem shelf and you know you’re going to deal with it at some time. It’s just one of those things that I’ve got to work through.

Todd Akin can’t resist the siren song of the Senate race – not with the field of damaged Republican B-listers gathering on the misty plains of Missouri. Just one question: Is “problem shelf” common engineer-speak, or is Akin just a special brand of dweeb?

As for this, it seems like classic Politico ginned-up b.s. So Claire McCaskill spends less taxpayer money on air travel than Kit Bond or Jim Talent, but because Politico makes a big deal out of her using a plane she co-owns with a group of investors, it becomes campaign fodder. Hopefully, with McCaskill saying she’ll reimburse Treasury for the costs, this’ll be a one-day story, unless Politico decides this move makes her look “guilty” (of what, I don’t know).

• NV-Sen: Rep. Shelley Berkley says she’s doing some polling right now and is still on track to make a decision in late spring/early summer. (I guess that’s somewhere between May 1 and August 1.) Berkley also reports that she’s been in contact with all the members of the B Team – Secretary of State Ross Miller, Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and State Treasurer Kate Marshall – and: “They all said the exact same thing, ‘We’re waiting on you, we love you and then we’ll make our decision.'”

• OH-Sen: Usually I ignore politicians when they comment on races – most of what they say is clueless or canned. But I love Ted Strickland, and you’ll love his incredulous reaction when he was asked what he thought of the possibility of GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel challenging Sen. Sherrod Brown. Said Teddy Ballgame: “Give me a break, that is laughable. I don’t think that would be a contest at all.” And he went on from there – click through for the rest. (Incidentally, I came across this amusing tidbit thanks to the Google: Back in 2006, when running for state Rep., Mandel refused to say whether he was supporting Republican gubernatorial nominee Ken Blackwell – or, yeah, Ted Strickland.)

• WI-Sen: This is just so mega-weird I won’t bother trying to summarize:

When questioned about his reelection plans by National Journal Tuesday, 76-year-old Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) asked, “Am I running?” He then shrugged, wordlessly. Kohl then asked “are you are a reporter?” Told “yes,” he walked away without a word.

In response to further media inquiries, an undoubtedly groaning staffer said that Kohl “will announce his decision later this year” as to whether he’ll run again. What worries me the most, honestly, is DSCC chair Patty Murray’s response to questions about Wisconsin’s very senior senator: “Herb’s just great.” Really, this is the kind of thing a committee leader needs to be on top of. There are ways to evade questions (“I know Herb is still making up his mind”), and then there are ways to just look evasive – and this is the latter.

• WV-Sen: Yep, like I said, long two years.

• CT-Gov, CT-Sen: Quinnipiac has approvals for Gov. Dan Malloy (35-40), Sen. Joe Lieberman (38-45), Sen. Richard Blumenthal (49-25), Barack Obama (49-47). That last number in particular seems rather low to me. I wonder what Quinnipiac’s sample composition is… but they ain’t sharin’.

• ME-Gov: A Republican state senator proposed a state constitutional amendment which would institute gubernatorial run-offs if no candidate got a majority of the vote on election day (something that has happened in four of the the last five gov races). The bill would have a high hurdle to become law, though – two-thirds of the legislature would have to vote for it, and it would also have to go before voters.

• NJ-01: Rep. Rob Andrews, as though dipped in the cranberry bogs of the Pine Barrens, has renewed his soul and emerged as that unlikeliest of legislators: a Nancy Pelosi ally. Andrews was best known for dodgy behavior and fratricidal tendencies, but a period in the wilderness after his humiliation at the hands of Frank Lautenberg has apparently turned him into a better man. Read the article for the complete picture.

• NM-01: Former state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, who gave up her House seat in a failed bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination last year, says she’s forming an exploratory committee to look at a challenge to Rep. Martin Heinrich. Heinrich is considering a run for Senate (something Arnold-Jones was also looking at), so she may have an opportunity for an open-seat run if that happens. Arnold-Jones staged an abortive bid for this seat the last time it was open, in 2008.

• NY-26: Good news! We finally have a date for the special election to replace ex-Rep. Chris Lee: May 24th. Even better news! Democrats are finally getting their act together and will be interviewing short-listed candidates this week and next. Those names: Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul; Amherst town council member Mark Manna; former Amherst Town supervisor Satish Mohan; and Some Dudes Robert Stall, Martin Minemier, Jane Bauch, and Diana Voit. Meanwhile, teabagger David Bellavia says he’s still considering petitioning his way on to the ballot as an independent, but the clock is fast running down.

• Wisconsin Recall: So the Republicans running the rump of the Wisconsin state Senate managed to pass (or think they’ve passed) their union-busting measures without the need for a quorum. (Read the link for the full procedural run-down.) The lone no vote was Dale Schultz, who isn’t elligible for recall this year but does sit in one of the two-bluest districts held by a Republican, according to SSP’s now-seminal analysis.

• NY-St. Sen: The frogs get marched out one by one, hurrah, hurrah! The frogs get marched out one by one, hurrah – hurrah! Scumdog state Sen. Carl Kruger (D, sadly) just turned himself in to the FBI on corruption charges. Among Kruger’s many sins, he threatened to caucus with the Republicans in after the Democrats won back the chamber for the first time in generations back in 2008. He also voted against the gay marriage bill that came up late in 2009. Unfortunately, Kruger holds the second-reddest seat in the entire state (amazingly enough, though, it’s 45% Obama, thanks to the GOP’s awesome gerrymander). If he steps down, it’ll be an exceptionally difficult hold, though, since Dems control very few seats where Obama did worse than 60%.

• Maps: The Atlantic has a cool interactive map featuring the “12 States of America” – the US, broken up at the county level into varying socio-economic groupings (with cutesy names, of course).

• Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso is now contributing special election results wrap-ups:

In Arkansas HD-24, Republican Bruce Cozart emerged victorious by a 60-40 margin. Tennessee’s SD-18 was no surprise, with a 2-1 margin for Republican Kerry Roberts. In California’s AD-04, the lone Democrat, Dennis Campanale, made it into first place, albeit with only around 32%, and will face Republican Beth Gaines, who squeaked past fellow Republican John Allard by a 1% margin (22.5 to 21.5), in the May runoff. [The first CA race to feature a run-off under the new top-two system. – David]

Also, a quick shout-out to the newest member of the Tennessee House (HD-98), Democrat Antonio “2 Shay” Parkinson, and the newest member of the Virginia House of Delegates (HD-91), Republican Gordon Helsel, both of whom were unopposed on Tuesday.

• State Leges: Louis Jacobson of Governing magazine has an interesting look at various proposals in several states to shrink the sizes of their respective legislatures. However, if history is any guide, most of these won’t go anywhere.

Redistricting Roundup:

• New Jersey: Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, has put together a couple of proposed legislative maps, one that he calls a “constitutional” map, the other, a “competitive” map.

• Virginia: This seems like a pretty good deal, if you ask me:

Senate Majority Leader Richard “Dick” Saslaw said on a Northern Virginia radio show the other day that he had reached a “gentleman’s agreement” with Republican leaders in the House on how to go about redistricting the state….

“I’m not gonna interfere with the lines the House draws for the House,” he said. “And they’re not gonna interfere with the lines I draw for the Senate.”

Dems hold the Senate, and the GOP holds the House and the governor’s mansion, so I’ll take it.

• Wisconsin: Aaron Blake has another good entry in his redistricting series, though the bottom line is that even though Republicans control the process, they don’t have a great deal of ability to improve life for themselves. One thought that I had: If the recall effort in the WI Senate is successful, then Dems could suddenly give themselves a seat at the redistricting table where they had none before. Verrry interesting.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/3-6, “usual” Maine Republican primary voters, no trendlines):

Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 43

Scott D’Amboise (R): 18

Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 10

Undecided: 28

Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 33

Republican Jesus (R): 58

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4.7%)

I agree with Tom: These numbers are not good for Snowe, not at all. D’Amboise and Dodge are truly at Some Dude levels, with only 5% and 2% (two percent!) favorables respectively, and yet the incumbent manages to score only 43% of primary voters. Moreover, as Tom reminds us, “Lisa Murkowski’s approval with Republicans in January of 2010 was 77/13 and Mike Castle’s in March of 2009 at an identical point in the cycle was 69/24.” As I’ve been saying all along, if the Tea Party Express or the Club for Growth throws down here, Snowe is in a heap of trouble. (By the way, “Republican Jesus” is the technical term for what PPP calls “a more conservative challenger.”)

This is all very poignant for Snowe, because, look:

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/3-6, Maine voters, no trendlines):

Emily Cain (D): 20

Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 64

Undecided: 16

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 18

Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 66

Undecided: 17

Emily Cain (D): 33

Scott D’Amboise (R): 33

Undecided: 34

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 29

Scott D’Amboise (R): 36

Undecided: 35

Emily Cain (D): 32

Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 30

Undecided: 37

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 29

Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 33

Undecided: 38

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Those are some massive numbers for an incumbent in a swing state. And note the crossover appeal – Emily Cain, for instance, does 13 points better against the nobodies (fellow nobodies?) than she does against Snowe. Yet Snowe might not even get the chance to have this fight. But like Yoda said, there is another….

Emily Cain (D): 17

Scott D’Amboise (R): 21

Olympia Snowe (I): 54

Undecided: 7

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 15

Scott D’Amboise (R): 20

Olympia Snowe (I): 56

Undecided: 9

Emily Cain (D): 15

Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 19

Olympia Snowe (I): 56

Undecided: 10

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 13

Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 19

Olympia Snowe (I): 57

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±2.8%)

In this hypothetical scenario where Snowe runs as an independent, she also posts huge numbers, peeling from both sides. I’ll turn it over to Tom once more to provide the closing words:

If Snowe continues on as a Republican this is a race that an ambitious Democrat who doesn’t have a ton to lose should really look at. Obviously if Snowe emerges as the Republican nominee you’re going to lose and you’re going to lose by a lot. If Snowe ends up running as an independent you’re probably going to lose and you’re probably going to lose by a lot. But if Snowe stays the course and gets taken out you might become Chris Coons – a guy who was willing to throw his name in the hat when it looked impossible and ended up coasting to an easy general election victory.

For Snowe there’s a hard route to reelection and an easy one – it’ll be interesting to see if she sticks with the hard one.

• AZ-Sen: Fuck this guy.

• FL-Sen: Remember George LeMieux? I do, but only barely. Anyhow, some reporter he spoke with says now that an announcement for a Senate run “is imminent, and could come within a few weeks.” The article says basically the same thing about former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, but we’ll see when we see.

• NJ-Sen: According to a new Rutgers-Eagleton poll, Bob Menendez’s approvals are 34-28 – better than I would have thought! Chris Christie’s numbers keep getting worse (yay!), while Obama is at +21.

• IN-Sen: Like their counterparts in the Wisconsin state Senate, Democrats in Indiana’s House are holed up in Illinois, boycotting their chamber over anti-union legislation. This has had the effect of delaying work on redistricting, which in turn seems to be delaying Rep. Joe Donnelly’s decision about whether to run for re-election or seek higher office; Donnelly obviously would prefer to look at the new map before choosing.

On the other side of the aisle, Dick Lugar engaged in a brutally embarrassing flip-flop that suggests to me he might be reconsidering his approach to the teabaggers and adopting a more Orrin Hatch-style form of supplication. After first saying he’d vote against the House GOP’s budget bill (which contains huge spending cuts), he then changed his mind an hour later and said he’d vote for it… and blamed his earlier answer on supposedly not being able to hear the question he’d been asked. The fact that he flip-flopped right after a weekly Republican lunch meeting had nothing to do with his arm being put in a vice behind closed doors.

• MA-Sen: This is an odd set of tweets from the Boston Globe’s Glen Johnson. He asked Newton Mayor Setti Warren if Obama had asked him to run for Senate (Obama happens to be in the area for a fundraiser – see DCCC item below), and Warren was silent in response. Warren apparently later called Johnson and said that yes, the president had spoken with him about the race, but no, hadn’t asked him to run. Weird.

In other news, ex-Rep. Joe Kennedy said once again that he has no interest in running against Scott Brown next year, saying he feels “ill” at the thought. Bear in mind that Kennedy still has a pretty hunormous $2.1 million in his campaign account, left over from his representin’ days, so he’s gotta do something with it at some point.

• NM-Sen: Heather Wilson had a bunch of relatively big backers at her campaign launch: ex-Sen. Pete Domenici, Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry, former U.S. Reps. Bill Redmond and Manuel Lujan, and one-time GOP gubernatorial hopefuls Allen Weh, Pete Domenici, Jr., and Janice Arnold-Jones. I’d be shocked out of my socks if Wilson has the Republican primary field to herself, though; reporter Gwyneth Doland says now that Rep. Steve Pearce, who had sounded pretty reticent before, “isn’t ruling out a run” himself, but those are her words, not his.

• NV-Sen: This is the best news I’ve heard all day: A former Sharron Angle consultant “talked up the possibility” of another Senate run to Ben Smith, touting her UNPRECEDENTED TEA-FLAVORED POWER. Hmm, that’s probably the label on some Japanese soft drink, but that’s still pretty much the gist of what this guy said. Sadly, though, Jon Ralston is here to drink my weird made-up Japanese soft drink – drink it up – because he thinks both Angle and Lt. Gov. Krolicki (also considering a Senate bid) will instead run in NV-02, which would be open if Rep. Dean Heller decides to move up.

On the Dem side, Greg Giroux – who I think must be wired, Matrix-like, into all the key election databases – spots a filing from Byron Georgiou, an attorney who was one of Harry Reid’s picks to serve on the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. It can be a little tricky to tell with attorneys, but it sounds like Georgiou may be pretty wealthy, given that Wikipedia describes his career as generally involving major plaintiff-side litigation. (By the way, Dem Ross Miller told Ralston he would wait to see what Rep. Shelley Berkley does before making plans of his own.)

Also, UMN has another one of their typically fascinating posts up, this time about the Nevada Senate race. It turns out that in the state’s 100-plus year history, there have only been five open seat races, and only once (in 1942!) was the seat held by the same party. The same piece also points out that only one Nevada senator, Richard Bryan (D), has ever left office on his own terms – those who didn’t lose in the general were driven from office by reasons of scandal (like Ensign), health, or failure to win renomination.

• PA-Sen: Remember Sam Rohrer? I definitely didn’t. But the former state Rep., who got killed in the gubernatorial primary against now-Gov. Tom Corbett last year, said he hasn’t ruled out a challenge to Sen. Bob Casey. His party may need him, since pretty much no serious Republican seems interested in running.

• VT-Sen, VT-Gov: Thom Lauzon, the Republican mayor of Barre (pop. 9,000), says he’s considering running for either governor or Senate, but neither sounds likely, especially the latter, since he says he’s tight with state Auditor Tom (not Tim) Salmon, who has said he’s leaning toward a run.

• WV-Sen: Gonna be a long two years if we have to put up with this on a regular basis.

• FL-22: I can’t really tell if this guy rises above Some Dude level, but Gulf War vet Patrick Daniel (D) says he’s challenging Allen West, and that he’s been “preparing to run for office for at least five years” (in the words of his interviewer, Kenneth Quinnell).

• MN-08: A wide net sure is right. A source tells Joe Bodell of the MN Progressive Project that one possible Democratic candidate to take on Rep. Chip Cravaaaaaack is state Rep. Ryan Winkler. The only problem is that Winkler represents a district in suburban Minneapolis, while the 8th CD covers Minnesota’s northeastern reaches. So what gives? Winkler is a native of Bemidji, some 200 miles north of the Twin Cities, and he told Bodell that he’s thought about moving home, “but nothing is in the works.” I’ll also point out that Bemidji is actually in the 7th district (right near the border with the 8th).

• NY-26: Jack Davis was always just about the worst imaginable fit for the Democratic Party since Lyndon LaRouche, so it’s no surprise that he’s trying to court teabaggers in pursuit of his doomed fourth run for Congress (this time as an independent). The best part is that the mainstream (lol) teabaggers are rejecting him, but a splinter group (yes, another Judean People’s Front/People’s Front of Judea split) supposedly is in Davis’s camp. Davis is also trying to claim that Republican Jane Corwin has a “nanny issue,” but whatevs. Those don’t seem to gain a lot of traction these days, even if true.

• OR-01: SurveyUSA released a poll asking folks their opinions of David Wu. They ask respondents how they voted last year (52-38 for Wu, close to the actual 54-42 margin), and they also have a do-over question pitting Wu against 2010 challenger Rob Cornilles. Cornilles fares little better in this question, getting just 41%, but Wu drops dramatically, down to 33%. Meanwhile, Kari Chisholm at Blue Oregon has a massive list of everyone and his dog and the dog’s stuffed chewtoy who could potentially try to primary Wu, who has been busy conducting an apology tour of sorts.

• Los Angeles Mayor: It’s never too early to think about the 2013 elections, and that is exactly what over a dozen ambitious residents of America’s 2nd largest city are doing. The Los Angeles Times handicaps the vast field of candidates contemplating bids to replace Antonio Villaraigosa as the next mayor of Los Angeles. The prospects range from the old (longtime LA pol and County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky) to the young (state senator Alex Padilla, who was 2 years old when Yaroslavsky first landed a seat on the LA City Council). And just to show that there are still potential Bloombergs among us, the field contains two wealthy self-funders (developer Rick Caruso and investment banker-turned-deputy mayor Austin Beutner). (Steve Singiser)

• NYC Mayor: Gag me with a spoon – when asked by Fareed Zakaria on CNN, Eliot Spitzer refused to rule out a run for NYC mayor. And I say this as someone who worked to get Spitzer elected – twice!

• WI Recall: Greg Sargent has an update on Dems’ signature collection efforts in the recall drive, and Team Blue is saying things are going very well in the early going – beating expectations, in fact. But there also seems to be some movement in terms of a deal with Gov. Scott Walker, which could deflate the sails of the recall movement very abruptly.

• DCCC: Obama alert! The POTUS was in Boston yesterday for a fundraiser for the DCCC. (That’s why he had the chance to chat with Setti Warren – see MA-Sen item above.) The D-Trip says the event raised a million bucks.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Arkansas: Reid Wilson has a tantalizing tweet, but nothing more: ” Arkansas legislators contemplating new heavily black, safe Dem seat.”

• Colorado: Republicans in the state House (where they’re in the majority) are trying to push a new law which would have the effect of moving Democratic Pueblo out of the 3rd CD (which gives Dems a fighting chance there) and into the deep red vote sink that is the 5th district. This is probably being done with an eye to protect freshman Rep. Scott Tipton, but it’s also possible that “moderate” state Sen. Ellen Roberts, a co-sponsor of the bill, is trying to craft a district more to her liking for an eventual run someday. Either way, it doesn’t matter – Dems control the state Senate and the governor’s mansion, so this bill is going nowhere.

Mississippi: Well, that sure was fast. A state Senate panel (controlled by the GOP) rejected a new map for the state House, which the Dem-controlled House had passed last week. If the two sides remain deadlocked, it’s possible that the state would have to conduct legislative elections both this year (under the old map) and next year (under a new map), something that actually happened in 1991/92. This would of course give the GOP another chance to win the state House before a Dem map can be implemented (and you’ve gotta think their odds of doing so are pretty good).

Meanwhile, there’s also some Redistricting™-brand cat fud on display in the Senate. Republicans released a map for their own body (available, along with demographic info, here), but Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant (who also holds the position of President of the Senate) pushed a plan of his own through the Elections Committee instead. (If you have a link to that map, please let us know in comments.) That puts him in a battle with members of his own party in terms of which map should get adopted.

• Pennsylvania: As Nice & Smooth put it, sometimes I map slow, sometimes I map quick – and PA Republicans are definitely in the former category. After state Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi said he hoped to have a new congressional map complete in the fall, a wise-ass aide noted that technically, fall doesn’t end until Dec. 21st, so we might not see a new plan until the Winter Solstice. The staffer also said that technically, he has kissed a girl, because he once played spin-the-bottle with his second cousin.

• Redistricting: The Brennan Center has a very helpful guide to understanding the intricacies of redistricting, which you should all bookmark.