Tag: 2008 Elections

Has the DSCC found its candidate in Oregon?  According to the AP, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley is almost ready to enter the race against Republican Senator Gordon Smith:

Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley plans to file notice with the Federal Election Commission by Aug. 1 that he'll be running for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Republican Gordon Smith, two sources close to the campaign told The Associated Press Tuesday.

Merkley is on vacation in Central Oregon with his family this week, and wants to consult with them one last time before making the final, firm decision to challenge Smith, according to a strategist who has been advising Merkley.

“He could come back and say, 'We've decided that we are just not ready for this,” the strategist said. “I strongly believe that is not going to happen.”

The DSCC's wooing campaign, including favorable internal polls and face time with freshmen Senators, apparently paid off:

Merkley has met with many of the freshmen Democratic senators elected in 2006, including Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, all of whom encouraged him to run, sources said.

He's also been encouraged by recent internal polling, which has shown him within striking distance of the far-better-known Smith, who already has $3.5 million stockpiled for the race. National Democrats, who say Smith is one of their top three or four targets in 2008, have pledged to Merkley that he'll be “financially competitive,” and will likely pay for television ads to be in heavy rotation.

Meanwhile, activist and attorney Steve Novick, the only official challenger in the race so far, released a statement proving that he's a real class act:

Novick, though, said he would “welcome Jeff to the race, and look forward to a series of joint appearances around the state, where each of us will make the case for why Gordon needs to be replaced.”

How refreshing it is to hear a candidate press on undeterred, continuing to make their case for change while pointedly not whining about being “muscled out” of the race by “DC insiders”.  Rock on, Steve.

(H/T: Blue Oregon) 

First Stevens, and now Don Young (FL-AL, by the way).  How long will these geezers be able to hold off the sharks?

(H/T: TPM Muckraker and RandySF) 

Some voices have expressed frustration that the Democratic field to take on Republican Rep. Mark Kirk of Illinois' Democratic-leaning 10th District is fractured between rematch-seeker Dan Seals and attorney and former Clinton aide Jay Footlik.  To the extent that Seals and Footlik both been outraised by a tidy sum in the second quarter, money-splitting is certainly a concern, but not an overwhelming one.  After all, fundraising is never a zero-sum game.

Is there a chance that a primary could be a good thing?  If Dan Seals is the nominee (and he has a strong chance, given the goodwill and name recognition that his longshot-turned-competitive 2006 campaign generated), he could emerge an even stronger candidate in the general. 

How do I figure?  In 2006, Seals ran a very competent campaign, hitting Kirk hard on his ties to Bush and the Republican Congress.  The one area of improvement for Seals lies in his Iraq message.  It's not so much a question of substance (Seals has the correct stance: “responsible withdrawal”), but volume.  This Chicago-area district is an expensive media market for any congressional candidate to run in, and Seals therefore had to condense many different themes into the few television spots he did run (see here and here).  As we have argued before, 2008 rematch-seekers should be prepared to reorient their campaign message with a strong stance on Iraq redeployment as the central theme, especially if they spent much of the 2006 campaign hitting on peripherals like prescription drugs, the cost of gasoline, congressional pay raises, et cetera.  Granted, I'm not saying that campaigning on these issues should be eliminated–far from it.  It's just that these should be side dishes to the main course of Iraq.

And I think Dan Seals gets it, especially when I read pieces like this one from Roll Call:

Seals Seeks 'Anti-War' Label in 10th District

Dan Seals recently staked his claim to the “anti-war” label now that he faces a credible challenge for the Democratic nod in the Prairie State's 10th district.

Seals, whose long-shot bid to unseat Rep. Mark Kirk (R) almost was successful last year, technically bashed Kirk for his vote against immediately redeploying troops from Iraq earlier this month. But clearly his shot was intended to also strike Jay Footlik (D), the business consultant who only recently decamped Washington, D.C., to compete with Seals.

“I am the only candidate who has opposed the war from the start and the only one who unequivocally supports a responsible timeline for withdraw,” Seals boasted in a news release.

If Footlik's challenge is inspiring Seals to stake his territory on the left side of the Iraq debate, this primary could actually be doing a favor for Seals in the general election–should he make it that far.

The Children’s Health Insurance Program is that rarest of government creations — a joint federal-state effort that actually works to reduce the number of uninsured children in our country. No wonder Congressional leaders are trying to expand it — and the White House is trying to dismantle it.

The question for us is this: will our Congressman join the bi-partisan effort to strengthen CHIP? Or will he stick with the short-sighted ideological opposition of the Bush Administration and leave millions of children without health insurance?

A decade ago, then-Texas Governor George W. Bush dragged his feet while other states rushed to create CHIP programs and draw down federal matching funds. He preferred costlier private insurance plans that offered less coverage. He still does.

Where does Congressman Mike McCaul stand? Contact him today and tell him you support the bi-partisan plan to authorize $35 billion in new CHIP funding over the next five years — which is what we’ll spend (officially) in Iraq over the next three months. And the CHIP funds will actually do some good, covering an additional 3.2 million children whose families earn too much to qualify for Medicaid but too little to afford private insurance.

DC office: 202-225-2401
Email: http://www.house.gov…

It’s really very simple: If a criminal has the right to see a lawyer, a child should have the right to see a doctor.

Sincerely,
Dan Grant

If you want a Congressman who will support proven programs like CHIP, please click here to donate today.

From Pol Watchers:

Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo said he intends to form an exploratory committee later today in preparation for a possible challenge to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in 2008.

“I am keeping my options open; I am excited about gathering the facts and doing the ground work on this important election,” Stumbo said in an email sent to reporters. “It is time we remind Mitch McConnell that he represents Kentucky not George Bush.”

Stumbo, a Democrat, said he decided to explore entering the race last week after watching McConnell, R-Ky., lead Republicans in an effort to block an up or down vote related to the Iraq War.

“The American People deserve better, the families of Kentucky deserve better, most of all, our troops deserve better,” Stumbo said in a statement.

Stumbo, who ran unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor this spring on a slate with Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford, said he doesn’t want to interfere with ongoing fund-raising efforts for statewide offices. However, he will proceed to raise money from out-of-state donors or close family and friends before the Nov. 6 election.

“With McConnell’s overwhelming war chest, we must start now,” he said.

McConnell’s re-election campaign took in $1.25 million between April 1 and June 30 and has $5.7 million in the bank heading into next year’s election.

It remains to be seen whether or not Charlie Owen, a businessman and unsuccessful candidate for the House, Senate and Lt. Governor in elections past, will run.  Owen has been making noises about running against McConnell for months, including a recent discussion with Harry Reid and DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer.  In Owen’s favor, he is considerably wealthy and could at least partially self-fund his Senate campaign.  Against him, if elected, he would be 70 years old by the time he’d be sworn-in–a pretty ripe age for a freshman Senator.

Any nominee against McConnell will have to be prepared to get dragged through the mud.  Hitting McConnell on his reckless support of the Bush agenda is a good place to start, though.

(Hat-tip: Ditch Mitch)

In two successive election cycles, Alaska voters have shown signs of discontent with statewide politics as usual.  In 2004, newly-appointed Sen. Lisa Murkowski narrowly survived a challenge from Democrat Tony Knowles, while Bush crushed Kerry in the state.  Less than two years later, Murkowski's father, Frank, was ejected from the Governor's office by collecting a stunning 19% of the Republican primary vote amid charges of arrogance, nepotism, and wasteful spending.  At the same time, Alaska's long-serving Representative Don Young won re-election by his smallest margin in years, garnering 57% of the vote against underfunded, unknown Democratic challenger Diane Benson.

On top of it all, once invincible incumbents like Young (FL-AL) and Senator Ted Stevens are appearing much more mortal lately, with FBI investigations swirling around Stevens and his son regarding unethical transactions with the VECO Corporation (including a generous remodeling of the elder Stevens' home), and revelations that Young is not only wasting taxpayers' dollars in Alaska, he's doing it in Florida, too, with pleasant “side-effects” for a major contributor to his campaign (but no apparent benefit for Alaska, of course).

According to Roll Call, the Club For Growth, an organization always eager to intervene in Republican primaries in order to advance its Lochner Era economic agenda, is sniffing blood in the water.  In a poll commissioned by the CFG, 66% of likely Republican primary voters disapproved of the $223 million “bridge to nowhere” (a project vigorously defended by Stevens and Young), 71% believe that federal pork to Alaska should be cut, and 47% believe that it is time for a new Senator to replace Stevens.

Roll Call adds that such a salvo is well-timed, as some state Republicans are weighing challenges to Stevens or Young:

At least seven Republicans reportedly are mulling bids. Former Lt. Gov. Loren Leman is on the list, as is former state Senate President Mike Miller, who challenged Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) for the GOP nod when she sought a full term in 2004

While the Club For Growth has yet to commit to funding a primary challenge to either of these incumbents, I fully welcome their involvement.  Given the Club's dubious track record of backing candidates who struggle with mainstream appeal in solidly Republican districts (Bill Sali in ID-01, Doug Lamborn in CO-05, Tim Walberg in MI-07, Adrian Smith in NE-03, etc.), and the assist that they could provide Democrats by raising Stevens and Young's negatives while helping to drain the incumbents' cash reserves before the general election, a pair of primaries could be a very entertaining sideshow on the way to 2008.  It would be especially entertaining, of course, if the DSCC and the DCCC get their way and Anchorage mayor Mark Begich and 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Ethan Berkowitz enter the races under the Democratic banner.

In the meantime, you've gotta love money quotes like this one from CFG wingnut extraordinaire Pat Toomey:

“Like the rest of the country, Alaska taxpayers are fed up with runaway spending, wasteful projects, and the corruption that they can breed,” said Club for Growth President Pat Toomey. “Defending his pork career in 2001, Ted Stevens told National Public Radio, ‘I am guilty of asking the Senate for pork and proud of the Senate for giving it to me.’ Clearly, the sentiment isn’t shared by Republican primary voters back home.”

Well 7 more districts now have candidates:
AL-03,
CA-40,
CA-46,
FL-10,
IN-04,
PA-09,
WI-06,
Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki. & DCCritters.

Below the fold for all the news.
(cross posted at MyDD, Open Left and Daily Kos)

317 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 83 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 84
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 3
Districts with rumoured candidates – 31
Districts without any candidates – 84

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01,
AL-03,
AL-04,
AK-AL,
AZ-01,
AZ-02,
AZ-03,
AR-03,
CA-04,
CA-24,
CA-26,
CA-40,
CA-41,
CA-42,
CA-44,
CA-46,
CA-48,
CA-50,
CO-04,
CT-04,
FL-01,
FL-08,
FL-09,
FL-10,
FL-13,
FL-15,
FL-21,
FL-24,
ID-01,
IL-10,
IL-14,
IN-03,
IN-04,
IN-06,
IA-04,
IA-05,
LA-01,
MD-01,
MD-06,
MI-07,
MN-06,
MO-06,
MO-09,
MT-AL,
NE-02,
NV-03,
NJ-05,
NJ-07,
NJ-11,
NM-01,
NM-02,
NY-23,
NY-25,
NY-26,
NY-29,
NC-03,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-01,
OH-02,
OH-07,
OH-14,
OH-15,
OH-16,
PA-03,
PA-15,
PA-16,
PA-18,
TX-04,
TX-08,
TX-10,
TX-11,
TX-13,
TX-14,
VA-05,
VA-06,
VA-10,
WA-04,
WA-08,
WV-02,
WI-01,
WI-06,
WY-AL,

2) The following 3 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
SC-04,
TX-26,
VA-11,

3) The following 31 GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02,
AZ-06,
CA-03,
CA-45,
DE-AL,
FL-06,
FL-12,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-09,
GA-11,
KY-05,
MI-09,
MN-02,
NE-03,
NV-02,
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,
NY-03,
NY-13,
NC-05,
OK-03,
OK-04,
PA-06,
TN-07,
TX-02,
UT-03,
VA-01,

4) And last but not least the following 84 districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06,
CA-02,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-25,
CA-49,
CA-52,
CO-05,
CO-06,
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-07,
FL-14,
FL-18,
FL-25,
GA-10,
ID-02,
IL-06,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-16,
IL-18,
IL-19,
IN-05,
KS-01,
KS-04,
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,
MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-10,
MI-11,
MN-03,
MS-01,
MS-03,
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,
NE-01,
NC-06,
NC-10,
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,
OK-01,
OK-05,
OR-02,
PA-05,
PA-19,
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TX-01,
TX-03,
TX-05,
TX-06,
TX-07,
TX-12,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-31,
TX-32,
UT-01,
VA-02,
VA-04,
VA-07,
WA-05,
WI-05,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Arizona, Idaho, Indiana, Nevada, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 17 states with a full slate, and 7 states with one race to fill! That is almost half the states full or nearly full 17 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in CA-42, TX-11, VA-06, and WI-06; 4 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

On Friday, Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post published his ranking of the top ten Senate seats most likely to change hands next year:

1. Colorado (R)
2. New Hampshire (R)
3. Louisiana (D)
4. Maine (R)
5. Minnesota (R)
6. Virginia (R)
7. Oregon (R)
8. Nebraska (R)
9. South Dakota (D)
10. Kentucky (R)

Not a bad list for Democrats at all, but somehow I imagine SSP readers coming up with a slightly different analysis.  So: I turn the floor over to you.  How would you rank the top ten Senate races in order of those seats most likely to flip control in November 2008?  (And, if you feel inclined, please state your rationale.) Would states like Alaska, New Mexico, or Texas make it into your top ten?  Of course, there are many variables left unknown: retirements and challenger quality, for instance.  So you’re going to have to break out those crystal balls.

For a full list of 2008’s Senate races, see the DSCC or the 2008 Race Tracker.

I know we often make fun of lawyers in this country (“What do you call a smiling, sober, courteous person at a bar association convention? The caterer.“). On the other hand, there’s a lot to be said for the value of training in law for political leadership. The Clintons (Bill, Yale; Hillary, Yale), Barack Obama (Harvard), John Edwards (UNC), and Harry Reid (George Washington U.) all have law degrees.

Then we have our Republican mis-leadership. There’s George Bush with an Master’s in Business Administration. That’s the same degree that Duke Cunningham and Jeff Skilling have. There’s Rep. Shelley Moore Capito with a Master’s in Career Counseling. That’s the same degree as… well, actually, no one comes to mind. Bush and Capito share a mis-understanding of the law, too. Whereas Bush missed the week in high school civics class about constitutional checks and balances, after six years in Congress Rep. Capito still hasn’t figured out the basic mechanics of when a law is needed.

Case in point: Rep. Capito is crowing about her success in using an obscure legislative maneuver to outlaw something that is already illegal!

West Virginia Democrats had no problem getting it right (emphasis mine):

West Virginia?s other two congressmen?Alan Mollohan and Nick Rahall?voted against the measure. Rahall says he opposed the amendment because the program already includes ID requirements and toughening up the standard would be burdensome to many rural and elderly citizens and raise privacy concerns. Mollohan?s office said the amendment was “nothing but political chicanery.”

You know, it’s hard to counter the negative stereotypes the rest of the country has of West Virginia. Rep. Capito isn’t helping any. They noticed up in New York, too: Rep. Joe Crowley (D-Queens) said “It’s all demagoguery.” As Albor Ruiz of the New York Daily News put it:

While the fate of 12 million people, thousands of families and the future of the nation’s economy wait for Congress to do its job on immigration reform, some of its members would rather play games.

[snip]

“Loopholes in current law, like this housing assistance loophole for illegal immigrants, act as a magnet and invite people to enter our country illegally,” Capito is quoted as saying. “We should not be rewarding those who have come here illegally by awarding them taxpayer-funded services intended for law-abiding citizens.”

Wow! Is she tough! She’s cracking down and closing loopholes! No “illegal” will take advantage of taxpayers on her watch!

Not to rain on her party, but there is one small problem: What loophole is she talking about? Undocumented immigrants already are ineligible for housing vouchers. Under current law, all recipients of assistance are required to be citizens or to prove their lawful immigration status.

Capito can do all the chest-thumping she wants, but there is nothing to crack down on.

Here in West Virginia, the coverage is a mixed bag. Tom Searls article reads like a Capito press release. Yet, he did prominently mention his inability to get a quote from Rahall or Mollohan. Loopy Kercheval’s opinion piece does include quotes from Rahall and Mollohan but it distorts the issue even worse than Capito did.

Capito should be called out for immigration race-baiting and class warfare. Her arguments are full of lies and distortion. Here’s a just a few ways her actions are deceitful:

1. The HUD reform is benign at best and an assault on poor people at worst. It is already illegal for illegal residents to get section-8 benefits. As Rahall noted, her additional ID requirements create an additional burden on those who can least afford it.

If this legislative action has any effect it will be to make it harder for those who are entitled to the benefits to get them. This is an assault on poor people. Republicans like Bush and Capito believe that government cannot help people–this is an example of a self-fulfilling prophecy as they make it more difficult for the government to help those who most need help.

2. She provides no evidence whatsoever that there is a problem with Section-8 housing that needs “reform”. The one statistic she quotes in support of this bill has nothing to do with Section-8 housing.

You can be sure if she had any examples of illegal residents receiving Section 8 housing she would have mentioned them. As Mollohan said, this is “nothing but political chicanery.” It is a waste of time, money, and resources.

3. In her floor statement she repeatedly says the tax dollars paying for Section 8 housing come from hard-working Americans. That’s a misleading statement. Tax dollars are paid by not only by hard-working Americans but also by legal immigrants and illegal immigrants who reside and pay taxes in this country.

She knows this. She’s using misleading inflammatory rhetoric to score cheap political points. Rep. Joe Crowley is absolutely right, “It’s all demagoguery.”

This is yet another example of Bush-Capito style mis-leadership. There’s a reason why 75% of West Virginians feel that the country is headed on the wrong-track. Passing do-nothing legislation doesn’t help.

West Virginia need leaders who put their energy into solving the many difficult, significant problems that we face–ending the occupation of Iraq, providing universal health care, and providing social and economic justice for all of us, not just the wealthy few.

It’s time for Bush and Capito to leave office. We can do better.

Cross-posted at West Virginia Blue

A new WMUR/CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows Republican Senator John Sununu, a desperately out-of-touch enabler of the Bush Administration, performing badly in a series of hypothetical Senate match-ups:

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 54
John E. Sununu (R): 38

Steve Marchand (D): 38
John E. Sununu (R): 42

Katrina Swett (D): 39
John E. Sununu (R): 43

Jay Buckey (D): 28
John E. Sununu (R): 44

MoE: ± 4.3%

You can view the full polling memo in PDF format here.  While it is yet another poll showing Shaheen with a commanding lead over the floundering incumbent, challengers Swett and Marchand have a lot to be pleased about with this poll, too.  Despite having much smaller profiles than Shaheen (a former Governor), Sununu is mired in the low-40s: extremely dangerous territory for an incumbent to be.  Whether Shaheen mounts a bid or not (and I’d still be surprised if she didn’t, at this point), Sununu has set course for a world of hurt next year.

A big hat-tip to Dean over at Blue Hampshire.