Tag: 2008 Elections

When I watched former Vice President Gore on Larry King, it seemed as if he didn’t truly believe that the ‘real people’ on the street were really telling the truth when they said, every single one, of them: please run.

Well, a poll released this week in New Hampshire shows that the support is real, very real. Here’s the highlight.

The Gore factor:

The only obstacle for Clinton in the Democratic primary is Al Gore.  Twenty-nine percent of Clinton voters would switch to Gore if he announced for president, and when all of the switches from other Democratic candidates were recalculated, Gore would defeat Clinton.  In total, 32 percent of Democratic voters would support Gore over the candidate they are currently leaning toward.

Here’s why this poll is so important.

First of all, New Hampshire has seen every single person who is running about 15 times by now. They’ve seen them in big crowds and small meetings. They’ve seen their television commercials and heard the speeches. They take their role as first primary very seriously up there and they are not likely to be swayed by the flavor of the month.

So the fact that in New Hampshire, Al Gore is leading the minute he enters the race — pretty amazing. It’s also amazing because D.C. types are saying Gore is running out of time, he has to raise money, build infrastructure, create a ground operation in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Maybe not.

Maybe Al Gore can get in the race, October 15 is my bet. Maybe Al Gore can get in, run a true progressive campaign driven the community online. Maybe he can ignore the mainstream media that were just pathetic in the coverage of his great new book.

The poll also says this about what’s important to the voters there:

Iraq, the lead issue:

The most important issue to New Hampshire voters was the Iraq war (34 percent), followed by Homeland Security/terrorism (19 percent), health care (15 percent), economy/jobs (8 percent), education (7 percent), and the environment (7 percent).

So, it’s not all about the environment. Seems to me that the voters in New Hampshire know what they’re looking for. And his name is Al Gore.

According to The Hill, the DCCC has targeted 14 Republican incumbents for web/phone/radio hits starting on Monday. Here’s the full list, including each district’s Presidential vote in the last two cycles:

State	CD	Incumbent	Kerry ’04	Bush ’04	Gore ’00	Bush ’00
AK	AL	Young	36	61	28	59
CO	4	Musgrave	41	58	37	57
IL	10	Kirk	53	47	51	47
MI	9	Knollenberg	49	51	47	51
MO	6	Graves	42	57	44	53
NC	8	Hayes	45	54	46	54
NJ	7	Ferguson	47	53	48	49
NM	1	Wilson	51	48	48	47
NV	3	Porter	49	50	49	48
NY	25	Walsh	50	48	51	45
NY	29	Kuhl	42	56	43	53
PA	3	English	47	53	47	51
VA	2	Drake	42	58	43	55
WV	2	Capito	42	57	44	54

However, only seven districts (NC-08, MI-09, AK-AL, NV-03, NY-25, WV-02 and MO-06) are getting the radio ads. But this is a good indicator, perhaps, of the districts that the DCCC plans to aggressively contest next year. While many of these look tough, dynamite candidates in State Senator John Unger and Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes (MO-06) could very well be map changers.

Last night I received a fundraising email from the Charlie Brown for Congress campaign stating that 15% of online donations will go to the Sacramento – Sierra Red Cross to help the victims of the Angora fire in South Lake Tahoe (which is in California’s 4th congressional district).

Now, for those of you who don’t know it, Charlie Brown has done something similar before. At the end of the previous fundraising quarter in March he pledged to give 10% of contributions to local veteran aide groups. The donations were distributed to the Sacramento Stand Down, Nevada County Stand Down, and Sierra College Veterans Club in mid April.

This is in stark contrast to the actions of Congressman John Doolittle who’s practise it was to give 15% of all contributions to his wife. Charlie in contrast is giving money to the community in his district.

Here’s the fundraising email:

As you know, the upcoming June 30th FEC deadline is a very important benchmark for our campaign. But it pales in comparison to what’s happening right now in Lake Tahoe, where thousands of our neighbors are facing a devastating wildfire.

That’s why between now and the FEC deadline of midnight on June 30th, we will be donating 15% of all contributions made through our online ActBlue page to the Sacramento- Sierra Red Cross–to help area residents who have been affected by this horrible tragedy.

CLICK HERE to Contribute Now! (15% of your donation will help Tahoe Area Fire Victims).

CLICK HERE for a list of groups who are helping those displaced by the fire, and information about how you can help.

Together, we’ve shown that leadership is about much more than just affecting policy in Washington. It is also about mobilizing our collective strength to address real life problems here at home. In other words, leading by example.

A few months ago, our “no veteran left behind” campaign did much more than provide needed funds to area organizations helping veterans and families in need. It set an example that others have followed- both inside an outside of politics. Veterans and families in need across America, not just in our own community, have been the beneficiaries.

The events of this week demand that we lead by example once again.

Please be aware that it says that 15% of all contributions through Charlie’s ActBlue page will go to the Tahoe fire victims. So, I’m not sure if this also applies to other ActBlue pages raising funds for Charlie. I’ll ask the campaign and update once I’ve heard back from them.

cross-posted from Turn Tahoe Blue

More information on the Angora Fire at Lake Tahoe:

Tahoe Daily Tribune
OurTahoe.org
Reno Gazette-Journal
Sacramento Bee

John Boccieri in OH-16

Allow me to reccomend State Senator (and Air Force Reserve Major) John Boccieri.

John has been endorsed by VoteVets.org, General Wesley Clark and Governor Ted Strickland, who spoke at our campaign kick-off event:

“As a former Congressman, I know that it takes a strong leader like John Boccieri to stand up for Ohio families in Washington. John Boccieri understands the problems facing our communities and he is the right leader to fight for this area in Congress.  He’s been fighting to turn around Ohio as a state Senator and he will fight to turn around Ohio as a Member of Congress.” 

As others have mentioned, this Saturday, June 30, is the end of the quarter for FEC fundraising. We’re hoping that we can keep the momentum building that we’re enjoyed so far. If you can help with financial support through ActBlue, it would be GREATLY appreciated.

Sincerely,

Earl Britt
Web assistant
http://johnforcongress.com

When Tom DeLay engineered his redistricting scheme four years ago, he was riding high.  In control of the White House and both houses of Congress, he and his partisan allies thought they could get away with anything, from a war of choice in Iraq to choosing a new representative to roam the halls of Congress for us.

So how’d they do?

Well, Mr. DeLay, the man who once boasted “I am the federal government,” was forced to resign in disgrace.  Iraq, where I spent the past year-and-a-half, is mired in sectarian violence that is costing taxpayers $8 billion per month and untold treasure in the lives we’ve lost.

As for the Congressman bequeathed to us by Mr. DeLay, the news isn’t much better there, either.  Only two of Texas’ 32-member congressional delegation are less effective, according to the latest non-partisan power ranking.  Despite rubberstamping every failed Bush policy for the past four years, he has even less influence than Ted Poe and Pete Sessions.

That’s why I’m running for Congress in Texas’ 10th District – because the last thing we need is more of the same.

I’ve worked in Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, and Bosnia-Herzegovina.  I’ve seen what happens around the world when Washington exports partisanship instead of American values.  And now I’ve come home to ask you to send me to the source so we can change the course.

I’m ready to lead the way toward positive change.  Together, we can improve national security, move toward energy independence, reduce the national debt, and provide a level playing field for middle-class families.  We can achieve health care coverage for every child.  We can restore our leadership role in the world.

Most of all, we can find a smart way out of Iraq and bring our brave troops home to the heroes’ welcome they have earned.

Please join me and let’s make a fresh start in a new direction.

http://www.dangrantf…

Considering that it’s a state that Gore won (in my book), and that John “The Haunted Tree” Kerry lost by 5 points, Florida’s lopsided congressional delegation of 16 Republicans and 9 Democrats sticks out like a sore thumb on the U.S. electoral map.  (Of course, it was even worse before the victories of Tim Mahoney in FL-16 and Ron Klein in FL-22 last year, at a brutal margin of 18R-7D.)  Chalk it up to tenaciously shrewd gerrymandering by the Florida state legislature.  Five of Florida’s House Democrats are packed in districts that delivered over 65% of their votes to Kerry in 2004, one (FL-11) gave Kerry 58%, one is in marginally Democratic turf (Klein), and two Blue Doggies hold districts that lean GOP on the Presidential level as of late (Allen Boyd and Mahoney, whose districts both delivered 54% their vote to Bush in 2004).  Florida’s Congressional Republicans, on the other hand, have set up shop in a plethora of districts specially created for them–areas that Bush won by margins between 10 and 20 points (of which there are 11).

But as Democrats have proven themselves more adept at holding red turf than Republicans have been at retaining seats in blue districts (Democrats currently hold 62 House districts that Bush won in 2004, while Republicans hold a scant eight that voted for Kerry), so too has their zeal for stepping up the pressure against incumbents in Republican-leading districts.  According to the AP,  DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has lined up five Republican seats for aggressive challenges in 2008:

For Democrats, the targets are Reps. Vern Buchanan, Ric Keller, Dave Weldon, Tom Feeney and C.W. “Bill” Young.

Here’s the rationale for each:

– Buchanan barely won his District 13 seat in the Sarasota area after spending more than $5 million of his own money on the race. He won by 369 votes. His opponent, Christine Jennings, believes touch-screen voting machines lost thousands of ballots and that she would have won if all votes had been counted.

– Keller promised to leave office after eight years, then decided after the last election to break his vow. He’ll have to use resources in a primary before facing a Democratic opponent. Democrats see signs the District 8 seat that includes the Orlando area could favor one of their candidates, and they’ll make a case that Keller’s voting record doesn’t reflect the interests of his constituents.

– Weldon underperformed at the polls last year when he was re-elected in District 15, which represents the Atlantic coast from Vero Beach north to Cape Canaveral. He was re-elected with 56 percent of the vote, but against a weak Democratic candidate who spent far less money. A stronger, better financed candidate could be a challenge.

– Feeney’s District 24, which stretches from the area north and east of Orlando to Brevard and Volusia counties’ coastline, would normally be considered safely his. But Feeney’s golf trip to Scotland with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff could taint the congressman as Democrats continue to make ethics an issue in 2008.

– Young’s District 10 seat, which represents Pinellas County, is slightly Republican, but trends show the large independent voting bloc favors Democratic candidates. Young also hasn’t been seriously tested in years.

Democrats have already lined up a few ambitious challengers for these districts.  Keller, who won re-election by an underwhelming 53-46 margin against Democrat Charlie Stuart (a DCCC pick whose ability to compete monetarily in the general election was hampered by a competitive primary), will square off either with prosecutor Mike Smith or Sierra Club activist Corbett Kroehler.  But first Keller (who’s breaking his term limit pledge by running again), will have to get through a primary with conservative radio host and attorney Todd Long.  Long caught Keller somewhat off-guard during the first quarter, where he outraised the incumbent by a $40k to $27k margin.

In FL-15, Democrats have recruited Paul Rancatore, a Lt. Col. in the Air Force Reserves and the current “Director for Commercialization of Human Space Flight in the National Security and Space Office” at the Pentagon (that’s a mouthful).  In FL-13, Christine Jennings never ended her campaign against Vern Buchanan, of course, and she’s been raising money at a fast clip to pay for her legal expenses.  Despite her narrow “loss” last year, her race will be as tough to win as the rest of these, given some of Buchanan’s cautious votes in the House.

But it’s perhaps Florida’s 10th district that could be the most exciting of the five.  Unlike the rest of Florida’s Republican delegation, Bill Young holds a true toss-up seat, with a PVI of D+1.1.  Gore won this area by two points, and Kerry lost it by the same margin.  On paper, Young would appear formidable: he’s a 36-year incumbent, and he hasn’t won a re-election with less than 65% of the vote in ages.  But on the other hand: Democrats haven’t really tested his hand.  And given his totally irresponsible handling of the Walter Reed scandal, there’s clearly some rust to be punctured here.  Democrats have yet to line up a strong challenger to either him or the Abramoff-loving Tom Feeney (FL-24), and these will be major tests of Van Hollen’s recruiting prowess.

One final note about the article:

Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, expressed confidence that the party wouldn’t repeat its showing in 2006. He said Mahoney never would have won if it hadn’t been for Foley’s scandal and that Republicans perform better in Florida during presidential elections.

“All these districts will perform more like they normally do in ’08 than they did in ’06. That’s what presidential elections do. The Democrats had their best shot at a lot of these folks in 2006 and either didn’t make it or didn’t pull the trigger. I don’t think they’ll get a second opportunity,” Cole said. “We’re back to normal politics.”

With Iraq spiraling out of control, it’ll never be “normal politics”, Tom.  You should be ashamed of yourself.

Anzalone-Liszt, the firm that revealed Robin Hayes’ vulnerability against underdog Democrat Larry Kissell in a surprising poll last May, is back with perhaps the first publicly-leaked House race match-up polls of the 2008 cycle.  And boy, is it a doozy:

Robin Hayes (R-Inc.): 45
Larry Kissell (D): 43

Re-Elect Hayes: 40
Vote For Someone New: 43

Kissell, who came within 329 votes of upsetting the CAFTA-loving Hayes in 2006 despite being outspent by $779k to Hayes’ $2.48 million, won’t be as starved for funds in 2008, if DCCC Chair Rep. Chris Van Hollen has anything to do with it:

We are fully committed to this effort going forward. We think this is a winnable race. We think the fact that we came so close, that Larry came so close last time is a clear indication that Robin Hayes is vulnerable. We think he remains vulnerable. […]

I told Larry, that come next spring when we put together our Red to Blue program, that this race will be on that list from the start and we will continue obviously to work with the campaign going forward.

That was part of a transcript of a conference call between Kissell, Van Hollen, Marc Silverman of Anzalone-Liszt, and potential donors posted on BlueNC.  Also discussed during the call was the broad name recognition gap that Hayes holds over Kissell.  Despite being known to only 34% of voters (compared to 84% for Hayes), Kissell trails the incumbent by a statistically insignificant margin.  Compare Kissell’s 34% recognition to the 19% that Democrat Paul Hodes posted in May 2006 (also his second–and successful–crack at the bat in a House race), and you can see why Kissell is ahead of the curve while still showing a lot of room to grow.  With a boost of new resources, Kissell can introduce himself for the first time to a lot of voters that his underfunded grassroots campaign couldn’t reach last year.  The caveat is, as Markos notes, Hayes will take Kissell’s challenge much more seriously at a much earlier starting point in the cycle.  So expect Uncle Pennybags to dip into his own coffers somewhat heavily.  And expect the NRCC to come packing heat.

BlueNC has much, much more.

Race Tracker: NC-08

Public Policy Polling is out with another poll.  This one is huge, with a lot of results for us to talk about.

But, before I dive into details, check out this quick insert from the Indy Weekly of the Triangle:
 

Our tracking signals indicate that Dole rarely travels to North Carolina, whereas Miller seems to be in perpetual campaign motion there. And Republicans like Dole are out of favor for sticking so close to President Bush, are they not? We thus conclude that Miller would beat Dole like a tympanic skin-a drum, I believe you call it.

Ok, now that I have your attention, to the poll.  This poll (link at bottom) consisted of 800 likely voters pulled from the voter rolls.

First, lets hit on the big and simple numbers.
Bush’s approval in North Carolina is 37%, with 59% Disapproval.

This number has been fairly consistent for a while.  If anything this number is worse than it has been in the past.

Next up is Elizabeth Dole.

This poll has Dole’s approval rating at 48% approval and 40% disapproval.  Her numbers have been fluctuating at around +5%.  She might have grabbed a point or two because she killed the immigration bill (first thing she has accomplished in months), but I think this is just margin of error fluctuations.

Just for kicks PPP did a matchup poll between Dole and each of the Democratic candidates for Governor.  Dole leads Lt Gov Beverly Perdue 46 to 37.  Dole leads Treasurer Richard Moore 45 to 34.

Neither of them will actually run, but its interesting because this is matchup poll #6 where Dole has polled below 50%.

From the other side of the aisle, Right Wing think lie tank Civitas has a poll out showing slightly different results.  I wont link to their poll unless I have to, for the same reason I wouldnt link to Rush Limbaugh or Bill O’Reilly.  However, I will talk about their results.

I do not trust these results, as they are normally as Republican friendly as possible without the group losing their non-profit status.  However, with that caveat, their poll results are really good for us.  They give Dole the same 48% approval rating, but with an impossibly low 28% disapproval.  They also show 22% with no opinion.  They also polled for Brad Miller, showing him with 14% approval, 10% disapproval, 38% no opinion and 38% dont know his name.  Considering Brad has only been in Congress since 2002, this is not too surprising.  It might be a little low, but is about what I expected his numbers to be.  If he is going to beat Dole it will just be a question of whether he can raise the money needed to get his name in front of people.

With all of those caveats, they polled Dole v Miller, and got 46% Dole 31% Miller.  So, a Republican friendly poll against a guy with 24% name ID, and they still cant give her numbers above 50%.  She is in BIG trouble.

Ok, back to the Public Policy Poll.  They did matchup polling between Hillary, Obama, Edwards and Rudy McRomneyson.

Against Rudy
Giuliani 47% Clinton 43%
Giuliani 46% Obama 42%
Giuliani 45% Edwards 46%

Against Romney
Romney 41% Clinton 47%
Romney 40% Obama 44%
Romney 37% Edwards 51%

Against McCain
McCain 44% Clinton 45%
McCain 45% Obama 44%
McCain 40% Edwards 48%

Against Thompson
Thompson 46% Clinton 43%
Thompson 45% Obama 40%
Thompson 43% Edwards 47%

In the crosstabs, Edwards bleeds off more Republican support than either Obama or Clinton.  But, his real strength is amongst independent voters.  Obama does the worst job of holding onto Democrats, but he is buoyed by his support amongst independents.

What is really interesting is the similarities amongst black voters for all the candidates.  Personally, I think these polls might be even better news for us than seem.  Does anyone really believe that Obama would lose up to 20% of black voters to McCain?  Does anyone really believe that on election day 24% of black voters will choose Rudy over Edwards?

All these Republicans have way too many skeletons for that to happen, meaning you can probably safely add 2-3 points to every Democratic result.

Some other thoughts on cross tabs.
Dole’s support amongst women is still much healthier than her support amongst men.  This is something that can be changed just by focusing on her actual record on “women’s issues”. 

Our numbers amongst younger voters are simply astonishing.
Amongst voters between the ages of 18 and 29:
Edwards leads Romney 64 to 33! 
Obama leads McCain 61 to 33!

There is a lot more to swallow, check out the poll for yourself.  There are 12 pages (PDF) of statistical goodness.

A quick personal note to end the diary.  Thank you to the people who donated to Brad Miller yesterday.  The Draft page raised over a 1000 dollars yesterday with donors from Kentucky to NC, and donations from $20.00 to $1000.08  Thank you a thousand times over to those people who put their money where their mouth is.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Brad Miller has stepped up his exploratory effort in recent days as he nears a self-imposed deadline of July 1 to decide whether to take on Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole in 2008.

Last week, Miller and his wife, Esther Hall, met for more than an hour with New York Sen. Charles Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

All of this is from the News and Observer

This was added to in this morning’s paper…

This morning’s version of the same story adds a few good quotes from people who want Brad to run and people who don’t.

State Representative Deborah Ross (who could end up becoming our first ever Female Speaker in the next few years) said that she thinks Brad will run if he can be assured of the money.

His treasurer from his past campaigns thinks that he shouldn’t run, because he is building a great career in the House.  I disagree with her conclusion, but it is very true that Brad is doing a great job in the House.

In a conversation about money, Brad added:

“I am convinced if I make the decision to run it will be one of the top targeted races nationally by the Senatorial Committee and by Democratic constituency groups,” he said. “The support is there for a serious run.”

For those worried about such things, the paper lists four potential challengers to save Brad’s House Seat should he run.  I know 2 of them, one of whom would be an amazing candidate for this.  His website is here.

All of this is very important, because we must get rid of Liddy Dole.  You can find out more about her record by checking out the Draft Brad site.  Or you can just click on my name and sort through all my diaries on her.

Brad is very close to making a decision, and we have a fantastic opportunity to convince him to run.  I hope you will join me and send him a very small donation (even as little as 2 dollars) to show that you still want him to run, and would be there volunteering, phone calling, and blog swarming on his behalf.

The tenth district of Texas was once a liberal bastion held by such notable Democrats like Lyndon Johnson and Lloyd Doggett until Tom DeLay’s redistricting scheme diluted the seat’s liberal bent by stretching eastward and incorporating some very conservative areas of the Greater Houston region.  Under the current lines, it has a PVI of R+13.  However, the trend is positive: while Gore scored only 34% in this district in the 2000 Presidential election, the Democratic performance improved to 38% four years later.

But the real story here is Republican Mike McCaul’s performance in the 2006 election.  After going unopposed by Texas Democrats in 2004, McCaul’s share of the vote sagged dramatically last year:

Mike McCaul (R): 55%
Ted Ankrum (D): 41%
Michael Badnarik (Libertarian): 4%

McCaul’s 55% was easily the weakest performance from a Republican incumbent in Texas other than Henry Bonilla.  On top of that, Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian Presidential candidate in 2004, outspent fightin’ Democrat Ted Ankrum by a hefty $400k margin and only walked away with 4% of the vote to show for it.  Numbers like that would indicate that the Democratic base is pretty solid in this district.

Now, what could be the source of McCaul’s weakness?  Is it possible that lingering resentment over the mid-decade redistricting carried over into 2006?  Looking at a few of the other beneficiaries of the scheme who were freshmen during the 109th Congress, Representatives Poe, Gohmert, and Conaway all improved on their 2004 margins of victory, although Poe & Gohmert faced sitting incumbents in 2004 and Conaway was unopposed last year.  Rep. Marchant (TX-24) did slip a little over the two years, but only by 4 points.  No matter how you slice it, 55% is a terrible performance for an incumbent Republican in a district that delivered 62% of its vote to Bush in 2004, even in a rocky year like 2006.  There is a weakness here, revealed by Ankrum’s challenge, that perhaps an aggressive challenge can exploit.

One such challenger has already stepped up: Democrat Dan Grant, an international development worker who has worked on USAID projects in Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq.  (He even posted a diary here last week.)  I don’t know enough about Grant and his organization to tell whether he’d be a serious nuisance to McCaul, but he has managed to raise nearly $25k on Actblue in just a week or two, a year and a half from election day–and that’s more than one quarter of what Ankrum spent during his entire campaign.  He could be a guy–and this could be a district–worth keeping an eye on.

Race Tracker: TX-10

PS: There is another Democratic candidate in this race: Larry Joe Doherty.  He looks a little… flavorful.