Tag: PA-11

This does not look good.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (10/30-11/2, likely voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 45

Lou Barletta (R): 51

(MoE: ±4%)

The top of the ticket isn’t a problem for Kanjorski here — Obama is leading McCain by 53-43 in this CD (a better margin than Kerry’s 6-point win here in 2004).

While 2006 was a bloodless year for Democrats, 2008 doesn’t look quite as clean — Mahoney is a certain goner, and the GOP could pick up another couple of seats if they’re lucky, including this one. Kanjo has simply run a tired campaign that embodied politics as usual. He is poised to be the rare Dem victim of the “change” mantra tomorrow.

Hi everyone!  My name is James and I am interested in running for Congress.

Why?  Well, I think every American has a right to run for Congress, regardless of their social class or economic class.

I am a Democrat from a centre-right district.  My congressman, Paul Kanjorski, is in the political battle of his life.  This one’s gonna be a nailbiter, folks.

If Lou Barletta wins, I think the Democrats need to field a strong candidate in 2010.  If nobody’s gonna run, I think I’ll give it a try.

There’s a few problems for me though:

1. I’m 23.  I will be 25 by Election Day 2010 and therefore meet the age requirement to serve in Congress in January of 2011.

2. I’m gay.  That one kinda speaks for itself.  This district has no gay base to speak of.  Remember: This is Scranton, not San Francisco.

3. I have never held elective office before.  Now I know it’s not a requirement one does, and really this year inexperience is all the rage.  Let’s be honest, folks, even if I had a Harvard degree in law and served 8 years in the State Legislature, I could still lose and lose badly.

These are the issues that I plan to read up about and talk about in the campaign:

1. Border and Port Security- The cargo on the ships coming to the United States is not properly investigated.  That whole fiasco with the ports being owned by Saudi Arabia a few years back?  Let’s bring it up again.  And we need to secure the borders.  Lou Dobbs is right.

2. National Security- The President of Iran is a nutjob.  He wants to wipe Israel off the map.  We cannot let that happen.  I’m very pro-Israel.

3. Law and Order- It’s time to do what Nixon did in ’68 that won him the election.  There’s a lot of crime out here, a lot of thugs and criminals, there’s school gangs now.  It’s time to crack down on crime.  We need more cops on the street and harsher penalties for those who try to hurt innocent people.

4. Social Security- A BIG ISSUE for a Democrat running in Pennsylvania.  It’s time for the people in Washington to be straight with the American people.  Is it going to last for my generation or not?  If not, then let’s start thinking of new ideas NOW.  The Trust Fund has been ROBBED.  The Bush tax cuts stole money from the middle class to give to the upper crust elites.  That money could have been used to make Social Security solvent.

5. Veterans – There’s Vietnam veterans sleeping under the bridge out here by Walmart and I’m disgusted at the treatment they have received.  They are still suffering from post traumatic stress and therefore aren’t able to readjust well to civilian life.  They sacrificed their lives for us.  Now it’s up to us to take care of them.  I will bring up this issue because somebody’s got to talk about it.

I need to form the Clinton Coalition again.  Mrs. Clinton was popular here because she took the words right out of our mouths and said the things we were feeling about feeling invisible.  I always thought Barack was more of a Starbucks kind of Democrat.  I’m reluctantly supporting him.  I would have preferred Hill.

Elitism is very much hated out here.  

To win here, a Democrat needs to get “the Walmart voter” and convince them that their economic interests are best served by the Democrats than the Republicans.

I’m going to need some help here, and I’m asking you all now to offer some advice for me.  So reply back to me!

Just a few responses to comments from old topics that I missed while out of town.

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Did Kanjorski do something bad?  If not, it seems that the only ones who need to go are Mahoney and Jefferson.

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Well, granted, Negron ran a strong campaign, as I heard, and they had a really nice slogan for it too (“Punch Foley for Negron”).

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Do we have evidence about Anzalone-Liszt’s quality other than MS-01?

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

And make those funny EV rules actually worth something!

Also, some funny thoughts about Florida, in response to a comment whose location I forgot:

No one puts faith in Florida.  Here are the rules of dealing with Florida:

1. No one understands Florida.  It does not make sense.

2. Florida does not do what you want it to do.  However, if you expect it not to do what you want it to do, it will do what you want it to do.  But this therefore starts an endless cycle in which you expect it to do either what you want or what you don’t want.

3. Florida has the inexplicable quantum ability to exist in more than one state of affairs simultaneously, allowing statement #2 to be true.  Thus, it is possible to simultaneously win and lose an election.

4. No one puts faith in Florida.  If you do, you are dutily rewarded.  Al Gore put his faith in Florida and he was rewarded with a supreme court decision.  George W. Bush put his faith in Florida and he was rewarded with a Middle Eastern mess, a sinking economy, and the worst presidential disapproval ratings ever.  Christine Jennings put her faith in Florida and she was rewarded with voting problems in Sarasota County.  Katherine Harris put her faith in Florida and she was rewarded with a good ass-whupping courtesy of Bill Nelson.  Heck, I put my faith in Florida and I was rewarded with with classical music stations disappearing from the south Florida radio airwaves, and with Florida being called for Bush with 97% reporting in 2004.

5. Florida also has the ability to create votes from thin air and erase votes into thin air.  No one is ever sure of the numbers, absolute or relative, of each.  These numbers are not necessarily whole; Florida has a record of involving fractions of votes as well.

Research 2000 (10/6-8, likely voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 39

Lou Barletta (R): 43

(MoE: ±5%)

Woof. Barletta has been posting lead after lead in his own internal polling, and a recent Franklin & Marshall College poll also agrees. With R2K now in Barletta’s corner (although by a much closer margin), the only favorable numbers for Kanjorski have been Grove Insight internal polls for the DCCC. Not promising.

Democrats had an enormously one-sided victory in 2006, losing no seats in Congress. It seems likely that Dems will make sizable gains again this year, but it won’t be entirely blood-less on our side. This race is in danger of becoming one of the few Dem losses.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Grove Insight for the DCCC (10/5-6, likely voters, 9/14-15 in parens):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 47 (48)

Lou Barletta (R): 39 (39)

Undecided: 13 (14)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

This poll comes on the heels of a recent Barletta internal poll showing Kanjorski trailing by 39-47. Neither result is particularly great for Kanjorski, especially considering that he’s hovering below 50% in the DCCC’s own polling.

I understand that Daily Kos will be releasing a Research 2000 poll of this race soon. I’m looking forward to seeing which side of these dueling polls they agree with.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Susquehanna Polling and Research for Lou Barletta (10/2, likely voters, 9/22 in parens):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 39 (41)

Lou Barletta (R): 47 (45)

(MoE: ±4%)

More brutal numbers for Kanjorski — just take a look at his upside-down favorable and re-elect scores (below the fold). Overall, the numbers are not far off from a recent Franklin & Marshall poll showing Barletta leading by 44-35.

The DCCC and the National Association of Realtors have spent over $1.5 million on shoring up Kanjorski so far this year, and I bet they’re not planning on quitting now. For all their efforts, though, Kanjorski could end up being “the one” on election night.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

The Swing State Project is moving its rating of the race for Pennsylvania’s 11th District from “Lean Democratic” to “Tossup“.

A number of factors contribute to our decision here, not the least of which were three consecutive polls showing Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski trailing Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta. The DCCC released a poll of their own showing Kanjorski leading, but only with 48% of the vote — under the 50% bubble of vulnerability for an incumbent.

Barletta challenged Kanjorski in 2002 — not a great year for Democrats — and lost by a 56-42 margin. While it’s easy to dismiss Barletta out of hand because of that loss, it’s clear that in the interim years, Barletta has built a stronger profile, while Kanjorski has mired himself in controversy and gaffes. First there was the $10 million in earmarks that Kanjorski delivered to a failed anthracite technology company that was run by his relatives, then some inartful comments about the Iraq War that the GOP seized upon, and most recently, a disastrously bumbling interview with CBS on the subject of a controversial $5.6 million earmark to build a parking garage for a vacant office building (the “Kanjorski Center”) in his hometown of Nanticoke.

For his part, Barletta built a profile as a populist, anti-immigration crusader as mayor of Hazleton — an issue with some currency in this culturally conservative, working-class district. He has continued a populist theme on the campaign trail, hammering Kanjorski for spending campaign cash on limousine services “while hardworking district residents suffer.”

Money is the least of Kanjorski’s problems. He held a $2.2 million to $322K cash-on-hand advantage over Barletta, and has been saturating the airwaves since the early summer with ads. The DCCC and the National Association of Realtors continue to spend heavily in his defense, as well — but we can take this as an indication of something seriously wrong for an incumbent with such a wide financial advantage.

The word that’s been most often used to describe Kanjorski’s campaign skills is “rusty”. Well, we’re not really seeing the rust shaking off. This is one of the few districts where a Republican is beating the change drum and seeing some measure of success.

Franklin & Marshall College Poll (9/9-14, registered voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 35

Lou Barletta (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Now, there’s not much that I know about this poll’s sample breakdown or its crosstabs. The Franklin & Marshall College Poll (formerly the Keystone Poll) is a respected survey in Pennsylvania, but it’s hard to judge a poll like this without seeing its innards. Hopefully we’ll get some more information on this one shortly. (UPDATE: Full polling memo available below the fold.)

Still, with three polls showing Barletta leading (albeit, two of them were Barletta internals) and no other polls to inform us otherwise, it’s getting increasingly difficult to give Kanjorski the benefit of the doubt here. He’s in serious trouble.

UPDATE: Perhaps sensing trouble, the DCCC releases a poll of their own. Grove Insight (9/14-15, likely voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 48

Lou Barletta (R): 39

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Even those aren’t exactly rock-solid numbers, but they’re much better than anything else we’ve seen so far.

If you’ve already checked out SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker today (and I trust that you’ve been checking it daily), you’ve noticed that there have been a flurry of IEs in a number of House races in recent days. The biggest and baddest are these two investments made by the National Association of Realtors PAC:

• CA-11: $203,000 on media buys for Jerry McNerney
• PA-11: $382,500 for media buys for Paul Kanjorski (cycle-to-date: $616K)

I just checked into NARPAC’s 2006 activities to compare with what they’ve been up to so far this cycle. During that cycle, they involved themselves in three House races and three Senate races: IL-08 ($465K for Dem Rep. Melissa Bean), KY-03 ($1 million for GOP Rep. Ann Northup), NM-01 ($762K for GOP Rep. Heather Wilson), MO-Sen ($949K for GOP Sen. Jim Talent), HI-Sen ($602K for Dem primary challenger Ed Case), and NE-Sen ($173K for Dem Sen. Ben Nelson). An “interesting mix”, you might say.

So far, the Realtors haven’t dropped a penny for any Republicans, so this could be what a rock-solid majority buys you. We’ll be keeping an eye out on their next moves.

In other IE news, the NRCC has recently commissioned polls in six vulnerable districts: AL-02, ID-01, NJ-03, NV-03, OH-02, PA-03. Will the results ever see the light of day? We’ll be waiting.  

Susquehanna Polling and Research for Lou Barletta (6/27-29, likely voters, 3/27-29 in parens):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 41 (42)

Lou Barletta (R): 45 (47)

(MoE: ±5%)

Barletta coughs up another lead in a new internal poll, and although the numbers are probably best served with a grain of salt, it’s sort of telling that we haven’t seen rival numbers from Kanjorski or the DCCC. In fact, Kanjorski’s response to the poll doesn’t exactly inspire confidence:

A Kanjorski campaign spokesman declined to comment on the poll.

That’s the exact same response that Kanjorski’s camp gave in June. Weak, sir.

Kanjorski isn’t used to competitive campaigns, and the rust has clearly been showing in recent months with one gaffe after another. (Check out his latest bumbling interview with CBS news for his latest smash hit on the issue of earmarks.)

While it might be hard to believe that Barletta is leading (or will hold onto his lead) in a D+5 district, his aggressive populist campaign appears to be catching Kanjorski on the wrong footing.

SSP is changing its rating of this race from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic“.