Tag: AZ-03

Daily Kos released a pair of new House polls last night and today. Let’s take a look.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/6-8, likely voters):

Bob Lord (D): 39

John Shadegg (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±5%)

The last poll we saw of this race, from Anzalone Liszt showed a dead heat. R2K didn’t include the Libertarian candidate in its polling (an oversight), which Markos believes would have shaved off a point or two from Shadegg. In any case, Shadegg is under 50 and is currently weathering a series of big hits from both Lord and the DCCC (who have spent nearly $700K on this race so far). A recent Roll Call article takes note of some displeasure with Shadegg’s campaign by DC GOP insiders, so you have to wonder what their own internal polling is telling them.

But this is even more remarkable — check out the Presidential numbers in this district. McCain is only beating Obama by 50-39 here. Put that in perspective: This is an R+6.5 district that Bush carried by 58-41 in 2004. Despite having a homestate advantage, and Obama largely not contesting the state (at least, in terms of serious media buys), McCain is only hitting 50%. That’s pretty stunning, and possibly an ominous sign for Republicans like Tim Bee and Dave Schweikert, who were counting on some McNap coattails to carry them over the line in the 8th and 5th Districts.

And now for Nebraska. Research 2000 (10/6-8, likely voters):

Jim Esch (D): 39

Lee Terry (R-inc): 49

(MoE: ±5%)

Nothing especially strong for Lee Terry there (especially when you consider that this is an R+9 district), but also one that doesn’t seem to have budged much from Terry’s 55-45 win over Esch in 2006. In Esch’s favor, he’s getting the kind of help that he lacked last time: Obama has opened his third field office in Omaha just recently, and the DCCC has reserved $435K worth of ad time against Terry (although no ads have been aired yet, to the best of my knowledge). It would be nice if we could check in with this race with a few more polls in a couple of weeks.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 53-40 in this district.

Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (10/6-8, likely voters):

Bob Lord (D): 45

John Shadegg (R-inc): 44

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Hot damn. Bob Lord and the DCCC have been pummeling Shadegg over the airwaves in recent weeks (just check out their latest ad), while Shadegg has mostly been yawning his way through the past month. A recent Roll Call article suggests that Shadegg has been caught completely off-guard, and is struggling to adjust.

Daily Kos will also be releasing a poll of this race soon, so I’m looking forward to seeing what their numbers tell us.

To my surprise, it looks like John Shadegg has been busy observing the Day of Atonement:

U.S. Rep. John Shadegg (R-Phoenix) has sent a letter of apology to a veteran upset over the use of his image in a Shadegg campaign ad.

“I have never supported you and I never will,” said Constantine O’Neill, a World War II veteran and former POW, at a press conference from the campaign headquarters of  Bob Lord, Shadegg’s Democratic opponent in the 3rd Congressional District. “I could never support someone who doesn’t represent my values or the values of veterans.”

O’Neill said the same in a letter to Shadegg, in which he demanded the ad be pulled and an apology be issued.

Here’s an excerpt from O’Neill’s letter (PDF):

I’m writing to you to demand that you take down your most recent TV commercial in which you use a photo of me and several other World War II POWs cropped together with a photo of you depicting that we support you.

The opposite couldn’t be more true.

At age 20, I joined the National Guard in 1939. then fought in the Army Infantry during five separate beach landings in World War II. I was captured in Italy as a war prisoner and taken to spend 22 months in a German prison camp. When they finally left me 10 fend for myself and find my American troops, at 87 lbs., I staggered my way for days and found a French hospital where I spent months recuperating.

Now I’m 89 years old and my wife Mary and I have been married for 63 years. We’ve lived through a lot. But when I saw a picture of myself in one of your ads, Mr. Shadegg, I began to cry because I was so angry.

I never have supported you and I never will – I could never support someone who doesn’t represent my values or the values of veterans. I have fought all my life but you never once have fought for me. Now you are exploiting me and my fellow POWs. You never asked my permission to use me in a photo, nor would I have given it to you.

To say this was a well-deserved laceration doesn’t begin to describe it. You know, if this were a few years ago, you almost wonder whether the GOP troglodytes would have descended into Swift Boat mode. Now it seems that they’re too scared to use such odious tactics. Good.

If you’ve been following SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker over the past couple of months, you’re well aware that most of the DCCC’s expenditures have been made in some of the more obviously top tier races. Starting to break that trend, the DCCC has just posted a $91,500 media buy against GOP Rep. John Shadegg in Arizona:

Shadegg, an ultra-conservative congresscritter representing an R+6 northern Phoenix district, announced his retirement back in February only to reverse course after his GOP colleagues begged him to stay. Still, it’s been pretty clear that his heart just isn’t in it anymore. With a tougher race than he perhaps had anticipated back in February, perhaps Shadegg will regret going through the hassle and not taking that swanky private sector job.

With congressional primaries on September 2nd in Arizona, the deadline for candidates to file their pre-primary reports with the FEC was tonight. SSP rounds up the numbers once again, so you don’t have to:

Note: All figures are in thousands, and cover the period from July 1st through August 13th. Sandra Livingstone has yet to file her report, but if and when she does, you’ll be able to find it here. (Update: Her report has now been filed.)

Some impressive numbers from Ann Kirkpatrick and Gabrielle Giffords, in particular. Despite the hype surrounding Tim Bee, I really like Giffords’ re-election chances.

So first, Republican Congressman John Shadegg announced his retirement in February, telling reporters that life in the minority is a real bummer:

“I’ve just reached the conclusion I’d like to do something else with my life other than be in the minority in the U.S. House of Representatives.”

Desperate GOPers immediately begged Shadegg to unretire, and within days, he changed his mind and decides to stick it out for another term.

However, it’s clear that John Shadegg has fallen out of love with his job. In fact, he’s already openly musing about the next gig that he’d like to take! From PolitickerAZ.com:

“I see my friends in the Senate deeply engaged in fights where even in the minority you matter,” said Shadegg, who won a seat in Congress in the GOP’s 1994 rout but has since seen his party lose its majority. “Yeah, I could find that very interesting, very appealing.”

Asked point-blank if he would take McCain’s current position if given the opportunity, Shadegg responded: “Yes.”

Don’t you think that the voters of Arizona’s 3rd District deserve a representative who’s actually, you know, interested in their job instead of staring out of their office window and daydreaming all day?

Since Crisitunity has covered some of the remaining competitive House primaries on the front page, I thought I’d do a diary on the Arizona primaries, which are September 2.  Here are profiles of the Congressional races (I used to live in CD-01 and have continued to follow the state’s politics online since I moved):

AZ-01: An open seat (indicted GOP Congressman Rick Renzi is retiring), and the most exciting primary for the Democrats.  State Sen. Ann Kirkpatrick, a moderate, has the cash and the establishment support.  Her expected chief rival from the left, former television news reporter Mary Kim Titla, has absolutely fizzled and can’t seem to raise any money.  Who is giving Kirkpatrick quite a scare is outspoken progressive Flagstaff attorney Howard Shanker.  Though Shanker hasn’t raised as much money as Kirkpatrick (though more than Titla), he’s been endorsed by a fairly impressive list of folks: Progressive Democrats of America, CD-07 Congressman Raul Grijalva, and every single chapter council of the Navajo Nation.

You might ask why the Navajos are backing a white dude from Flagstaff over someone born on a reservation (Kirkpatrick) or an ethnic Native American (Titla).  It’s because Shanker was the attorney who defeated a proposal for snowmaking with reclaimed water on one of the Navajo’s sacred mountains, arguing before the Supreme Court that to do so would violate their tribal sovereignty.

Unfortunately for Shanker, the stars are aligned against him this year.  It’s a well-known secret that the Navajo only turn out to vote in off-year elections, when their tribal president is elected.  In 2002, they propelled political unknown George Cordova to victory over a crowded primary field, but in 2008, it’s unlikely they’ll turn out for Shanker.  Shanker’s also hurt by the fact that there’s another candidate to his left, Kucinich 2008 GLBT Coordinator Jeffrey Brown — whom Shanker unsuccessfully tried to have tossed off the ballot.

For the Republicans, mining lobbyist and 2002 candidate Sydney Hay will be the nominee, though she’s facing an interesting challenge from Tucson Electric Power VP Tom Hansen.  Hansen is a rarity in Republican circles: a bedrock conservative who’s shocking liberal on environmental issues (as in, he wants to phase out gasoline-powered cars altogether over the next 20 years).  If the Republicans had any brains, they’d nominate Hansen, but the smart money’s on Hay.  Either Kirkpatrick or Shanker is favored over Hay, particularly given the fact that there’s a right-leaning independent in the race (he’s a climate-change denier).

AZ-02: This is a rematch between horrific Congressman Trent Franks and retired music teacher John Thrasher (D), whose wife is a State Representative.  Expect the same result as last time: a blowout win by Franks.

AZ-03: One of the hottest races in the country, as hard-fundraising attorney Bob Lord (D) gears up to challenge surprisingly-vulnerable Congressman John Shadegg.  No primaries in this race, as Lord’s strong fundraising scared everybody else out.  Call me a pessimist, but I really can’t see East Valley voters tossing out Shadegg, whose father was Barry Goldwater’s chief of staff.  Then again, I never expected to see Congressman J.D. Hayworth in neighboring CD-05 go down; he’d weathered two stiff challenges in the 1990’s and was considered safe before losing to Harry Mitchell in 2006.  I also never expected to see anyone seriously challenge Shadegg, and Lord has certainly blown me away with his polling and fundraising so far.  In any case, this is the one of all eight races I’m least certain about in terms of predictions.

AZ-04: Another rematch between Congressman Ed Pastor (D) and challenger Don Karg.  Expect the same result as last time — Karg lost in a landslide and didn’t even bother to put up a website.  He’s got one now, but it’s pretty darn pathetic.

AZ-05: Freshman Congressman Harry Mitchell (D) faces a crowded field of top-drawer Republican challengers: former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, State Reps. Laura Knaperek and Mark Anderson, millionaire Jim Ogsbury, and a late entrant, lobbyist and former State Sen. Susan Bitter Smith.  Nevertheless, Mitchell dodged a bullet when his most fearsome challenger, moderate and beloved Corporation Commissioner (a statewide office) Jeff Hatch-Miller, dropped out for personal reasons.  The field seems to be coalescing around Schweikert and Bitter Smith, though Ogsbury could use his millions to keep it close.  I was really sweating about Hatch-Miller, but I think Mitchell is favored over all of his remaining rivals — the dude has a thirty-five-foot statue of himself in his district that was erected by his beloved constituents (when he was just a State Senator, no less).

AZ-06: We finally managed to find two candidates to run against Congressman Jeff Flake, who’s gone unchallenged the past two cycles — and one of them, trucking company account manager Chris Gramazio (D), seems fairly serious.  (The other candidate is university librarian Rebecca Schneider.)  Nevertheless, the wildly popular Flake should easily dispatch all comers until he decides to either retire or run for higher office.

AZ-07: All that remains to be seen in this heavily Dem district is whom progressive Congressman Raul Grijalva (D) will face in the general election: pastor Gene Chewning, or virulent racist Joseph Sweeney.  Sweeney was the Republicans’ sacrificial lamb in 2006 after defeating the well-funded Mayor of Avondale in the primary, so he’ll probably defeat Chewning as well.  In any case, Grijalva, who’s one of the most liberal Congressmen in the country, will easily win reelection.

AZ-08: Another tight district, as freshman Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords prepares to square off against State Senate President Tim Bee.  No primaries here, and the right-leaning independent who was planning to run dropped out and endorsed Bee.  Bee has a reputation as being somewhat moderate, and he’s well funded, but Giffords is a superstar (albeit a moderate DLC one) and will probably win again.

Predictions:

AZ-01: Kirkpatrick (D) def. Hay (R)

AZ-02: Franks (R) def. Thrasher (D)

AZ-03: Shadegg (R) def. Lord (D)

AZ-04: Pastor (D) def. Karg (R)

AZ-05: Mitchell (D) def. Schweikert (R)

AZ-06: Flake (R) def. Gramazio (D)

AZ-07: Grijalva (D) def. Sweeney (R)

AZ-08: Giffords (D) def. Bee (R)

Net pickup: +1

(Note: I also blog for ProgressiveHistorians.)

A new poll has just been released by the Bob Lord campaign indicating that incumbent John Shadegg is vulnerable. However, a lot of info is missing, according to Roll Call.

Polling memos are only as valuable as the numbers in them. A May 27 Bennett, Petts & Normington memo in Arizona’s 3rd district claims that Rep. John Shadegg (R) is “extremely vulnerable” but provides few and flimsy numbers from the actual survey to support the claim.

The May 18-20 survey, conducted for Shadegg’s Democratic challenger, attorney Bob Lord, showed the Congressman with a 31 percent re-elect number and 75 percent name identification….

It’s the numbers missing from the polling memo that tell the real story. The initial head-to-head ballot between Shadegg and Lord is nowhere to be found. Want Shadegg’s job approval number? Won’t find it here. The favorable/unfavorable numbers for the candidates (including Lord’s name ID) are not included either.

The poll included a bonus on the presidential race that may or may not be accurate.

The survey (and memo) also showed a presidential matchup, with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) leading Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) 48 percent to 43 percent in a district President Bush won with 58 percent in 2004. If McCain is underperforming Bush by 10 points in Arizona, Republicans should brace themselves for an electoral massacre that will make 2006 look like a birthday party.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, 1/14-16 (likely voters):

Re-Elect John Shadegg: 39%

Vote for someone else: 38%

Undecided: 23%

(MoE: ±4.9%)

The full polling memo offers some other encouraging signs for Democrats:

While Republicans have a 14-point advantage in party registration in this survey of likely voters, they only have a three-point advantage in party identification (37% to 40%) and only a one-point advantage among strong party affiliation

This is an R+6 district, so it won’t be an easy ride for any Democrat, but Bob Lord has been raising enough money and making the right moves to keep this one interesting.  The numbers show that he does have something to work with.

This news comes as a bit of a downer for us.  Apparently, the GOP arm-twisted John Shadegg into un-retiring, according to this article from the Arizona Republic.

Too bad.  On the up-side, I guess we’ll be able to portray him as someone who is not committed to serving in Congress, since he had to be begged to stay on.