Tag: WA-08

A roundup of races that haven’t yet been decided:

AK-Sen: Will this race be finalized before Ted Stevens is carted off to the big house? Answer: Yes. Will it be over before the Senate has a chance to boot his sorry ass? Maybe not. While Unca Ted has a 3,300-vote lead, some 76,000 ballots remain to be counted. Supposedly, they need to be counted by Nov. 14th, but the “target date” for certification is not until Nov. 25th (PDF). And then, who knows – maybe we’ll have a recount.

P.S. More here from Mark Begich’s brother Tom.

CA-04: Conservative Icon™ Tom McClintock has a 451-vote lead with 100% of precincts counted. Absentees and provisional ballots need to be counted. But check this out:

If no candidate is more than ½ of 1 percentage point ahead in the semiofficial Election Day results, county election officials will automatically begin partial manual audits. After the counties deliver their totals to the secretary of state in December the candidates will have the option to ask for a recount. (Emphasis added.)

We could be waiting a long time on this one.

GA-Sen: This race will likely go to a run-off between Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin. A run-off can’t formally be declared until the state certifies the election results next week, and outstanding votes could possibly tip the race to Chambliss. Nonetheless, both sides are in campaign mode. If there is a run-off, it will be held Dec. 2nd.

LA-04: This seat will also feature a run-off between Dem Paul Carmouche and Republican John Fleming. The date for that face-off is Dec. 6th.

MD-01: Dem Frank Kratovil is sitting on a 915-vote lead. But some 25,000 absentee ballots need to be counted. Results get certified Nov. 14th – not too bad, compared to some other states.

MN-Sen: An automatic recount seems certain here. Dickface Norm Coleman leads by a mind-boggling 475 votes out of 2.9 million cast. (Shades of WA-Gov 2004?) Oh, and here’s why I’m calling him a dickface. State law provides for an automatic recount if the margin is less than 0.5%. Yet this is what he’s said:

“Yesterday the voters spoke. We prevailed,” Coleman said Wednesday at a news conference. He noted Franken could opt to waive the recount.

“It’s up to him whether such a step is worth the tax dollars it will take to conduct,” Coleman said, telling reporters he would “step back” if he were in Franken’s position. Secretary of State Mark Ritchie said the recount would cost 3 cents per ballot, or almost $90,000.

What a chiseler – ninety-fucking-thousand dollars. That’s like one wealthy-donor-funded Nieman Marcus shopping spree for this douchenozzle. Anyhow, the same article says that a recount won’t begin until mid-November and could take “weeks.” Lawyers, ten-hut!

OH-15: As noted below, GOPer Steve “Steve” Stivers is ahead of Mary Jo Kilroy by just 321 votes. We may get final results in ten days, or maybe longer. If the final margin is under 0.5%, then there will be an automatic recount. We had one of those last time in this very same race – it took until mid-December to complete.

VA-05: Dem Tom Perriello is clinging to a 31-vote lead over incumbent Virgil Goode. Absentees need to be counted. This race will surely go to a recount. However, VA law does not provide for automatic recounts, and a candidate cannot request one until after the official canvas is complete. That isn’t until Nov. 24th, so sit tight.

WA-08: Good idea: Let’s allow everyone in Washington state to vote by mail! Bad idea: Let’s make the rule that you have to postmark your ballot by election day. In neighboring Oregon (the vote-by-mail pioneer), ballots sensibly have to be received by election day. But Washington has decided to do things the annoying way, so it’ll be a while before we get final results here – election officials say it’ll take a week to count all the ballots. (Though I don’t know if there is a drop-dead date by which ballots must be received.)

Anyhow, in the meantime, we know that GOPer Dave Reichert has about a 1,900-vote lead over Darcy Burner. The good news is that in 2006, Reichert won by 14.83% in Pierce County and 0.15% in King County. This time so far, he’s ahead by just 12.22% in Pierce and is behind 1.62% in King, which has 80% of the district’s population. My sense is that Burner probably has to start doing a little bit better in King to pull this one off.

UPDATE: Skywaker9 says that properly postmarked ballots have to be received within a week in WA.

LATE UPDATE (James): In the shocker race in California’s 44th District, where unheralded Dem challenger Bill Hedrick is trailing GOP scuzzbucket Rep. Ken Calvert by 4600 votes, neither side has declared victory yet.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/21-23, likely voters, 10/5-7 in parens):

Darcy Burner (D): 46 (41)

Dave Reichert (R-inc): 46 (49)

(MoE: ±5%)

Here’s a nice turnaround from the last Research 2000 poll of the race in WA-08, which showed Burner down by 8 at a time when a number of other high-profile Democrats were starting to pull away (and spawned a boomlet of WA-08-related hand-wringing). Hot on the heels of the most recent SurveyUSA poll, which gave Burner a 4-point lead, comes another R2K showing a tied race, for an 8-point swing in two weeks. (We’ll apparently never find out whether this race swung late or R2K somehow missed the boat with their first poll.)

As with many races that have heated up in recent weeks, the independents are starting to move over to the Democratic column and that’s shifting the broader numbers: Burner’s now leading 46-45 among independents, up from a 51-40 lead for Reichert in the last poll. Note that this sample was midway complete when the flap over Burner’s degree first emerged, which turned into a counter-flap over Reichert’s degree by the time the sample was complete, so it provides only a partial sense of whether the dueling kerfuffles effected the numbers.

Survey USA (10/20-21, likely voters, 9/7-9 in parens):

Darcy Burner (D): 50 (44)

Dave Reichert (R-inc): 46 (54)

(MoE: ±4%)

This race has spent most of this cycle at the top of the races-to-watch list for the blogosphere, after Darcy Burner captivated the netroots in 2006 en route to losing to one-term incumbent Dave Reichert in this D+2 district by a few points, and then continued running for 2008 without missing a beat. However, a lot of blogospherians (including us at SSP) started worrying a bit in the immediate wake of the financial crisis, when other netroots-backe rematch candidates in swing districts (Larry Kissell, Eric Massa, Dan Seals) suddenly started to climb into the lead but Darcy Burner continued to languish (trailing not just in a Research 2000 poll but a Democratic internal as well).

However, two subsequent internal polls showed Burner with a lead, and then Burner posted titanic fundraising numbers for the third quarter; the one thing she didn’t have in her arsenal was a public poll having shown her ahead. Well, finally, we’ve got one; she’s up 4 in the latest KING5-sponsored SurveyUSA poll, a sharp reversal of fortune from her 10-point deficit last time, taken during the afterglow of the GOP convention. With that in mind, Swing State Project is returning this race to “Tossup” status.

It’s unclear whether this race was moving at the same speed as the other similarly-situated races and R2K just happened to miss that, or if this race truly did take longer to surge because, as I’ve speculated before, the tech-heavy WA-08 is better insulated from the financial crisis (up to the point where people open their 401(k) statements). Either way, though, we’re starting to look pretty good in this race. (And if the NRCC’s decision to dump $454,000 into this race, the largest component of their multi-million dollar ad buy today, is any indication, the GOP knows it too.)

One other developing happening in this race: there’s a kerfuffle, helped along by the Seattle Times (the more conservative of Seattle’s two papers), over Burner’s degree from Harvard. Nobody’s disputing that she graduated, just parsing whether or not she double-majored in computer science and economics. (Short answer, apparently they don’t even have ‘majors’ at Harvard.) I suspect this will have the same effect as the Reichert-cheating-at-media-buying scandal that came a few days before: it’ll rile up the partisans but whoosh right past the few remaining undecideds.

I’m too excited to type anything. Here it is!

I just saw that King 5 TV reported a new Survey USA poll, Darcy is up 50-46 over Reichert.  The ad which pointed out that he’s ineffective really knocked him down, the first time his reputation has been damaged in any serious way.  Reichert’s even set up a site, http://www.davereichertdeliver… to rebut the claims.

He has $725k of TV on the air right now just this week, in all likelihood thanks to an illegal corporate contribution from Republican media buying firm Media Plus.

 

Lake Research Associates for Darcy Burner (10/11-14, likely voters, 9/23-25 in parentheses):

Darcy Burner (D): 47 (45)

Dave Reichert (R): 40 (48)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

There was a sudden wave of pessimism about this race in the blogosphere (and elsewhere) last week in the face of two bad polls (an 8-point deficit in a public poll from R2K via Daily Kos, and a 3-point deficit in a Dem-sponsored poll). Things seem to have turned on a dime in the Eighth District, though.

Coming right after yesterday’s surprising DCCC poll giving Burner a five-point edge, here comes a second Dem poll from Lake (who found the 3-point deficit last time) showing Burner up by 7. I’d still like to see a poll from SurveyUSA of this race before I feel confident that it’s tracking alongside other possibly-successful rematches (like NC-08 and IL-10), but this has to be a real confidence booster.

As I’ve stated elsewhere, this is a district dominated by Microsoft and Boeing, and isn’t as directly impacted by chaos in the financial sector as a lot of other affluent suburban areas may be. However, Microserfs and Boeing employees still have 401(k)s, and I suspect they may have finally opened their statements last week.

Update: The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Bennett Petts & Normington for the DCCC (10/8-9, likely voters):

Darcy Burner (D): 49

Dave Reichert (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.9%)

This one comes hot on the heels of two recent polls by Research 2000 and Lake Research, both of which showed Reichert ahead by 8 and 3 points, respectively. Given that this is the first poll we’ve seen that has Burner leading, I’m a bit more inclined to believe that this race leans more in the direction of R2K and Lake’s findings. Hopefully KING5-TV will commission another SurveyUSA poll of this race soon, so that we can get a better picture of where this one stands.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/5-7, likely voters):

Darcy Burner (D): 41

Dave Reichert (R): 49

(MoE: ±5%)

Lake Research Partners for Darcy Burner America’s Voice (9/23-25, likely voters):

Darcy Burner (D): 45

Dave Reichert (R): 48

(MoE: ±5.2%)

After losing to Dave Reichert by only a few points in the 2006 election, there were high hopes for Darcy Burner’s 2008 rematch. She led Reichert in fundraising through the cycle, and with Obama a particularly well-suited candidate for generating coattails in the affluent, suburban Eighth District, she seemed well-positioned to finish the job this year.

However, while the last few weeks have seen a few other re-match contestants (Eric Massa, Larry Kissell, Dan Seals) in swing districts moving into commanding positions, Burner seems to be remaining in the same position she was in before the financial crisis and corresponding Democratic surge: down in the mid-single digits. (Over the summer, she was down from 6 to 10 in three SurveyUSA polls, and most importantly, she was down about 4 against Reichert in the Top 2 primary.)

Research 2000 finds Burner down by 8. The internal presents a somewhat better picture for her: down by 3 in a straight head-to-head, but up by 9 (50-41) when voters are informed about the candidates’ positions. Over summer, such an internal poll might be heartening, but with four weeks left till the election, it doesn’t fill us with much confidence.

Several other factors also bode ill: we’re in the middle of a large (more than $400,000 combined) pro-Reichert ad buy by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and National Federation of Independent Business, which blunts Burner’s financial advantage. And today the Seattle Post-Intelligencer endorsed Reichert, touting his perceived moderation (they’re the more liberal of Seattle’s two papers; they have already endorsed Obama this year, and endorsed Burner in 2006). With that in mind, we’re downgrading WA-08 to “Lean Republican,” although we consider this as being on the cusp of “Toss-up,” and a strong showing the next SurveyUSA poll could put her right back in the thick of things.

Possible theories on why Burner is lagging include:

• this race seems to be getting less coverage in the local media than it did in 2006, drowned out by the heated and noisy gubernatorial race, as well as the drama of the presidential race and the economy, so it has sort of afterthought status this year;
  

• Reichert retains very high name recognition and favorables from his long stint as King County Sheriff (a non-partisan elected office), and, correctly or not, receives credit and the accompanying local celebrity status for catching the Green River Killer, making it difficult for Burner to drive up his negatives; and
  

• this district is probably more insulated from the crisis in the financial sector than most, as this district is all about, in its north, Microsoft, and in its south, Boeing (although we’ll see what happens as people open their 401(k) statements this week).

The internal polling memo is over the flip…

UPDATE (by James L.): It turns out this poll was not an internal poll for Burner, but rather one commissioned by America’s Voice.

For the previous few weeks, it seemed like Darcy Burner had the TV airwaves in Washington’s Eighth District pretty much to herself, frequently running this ad calling attention to his no-bill-passing, 401st-out-of-439th-in-effectiveness-rating ways. With Republican incumbent Dave Reichert trailing in the money department, and the NRCC trying to spin dozens of plates elsewhere, Burner was free to advertise with impunity.

Well, she’s got some company now, as business front groups step in to fill the void left by the NRCC and Reichert’s own dwindling cash. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is spending $156,000 to air TV spots starting this week, on top of a $40,000 radio ad buy. (But wait: that’s not all! Next week, the National Federation of Independent Business is weighing in with another $219,000 television buy.)

Intervention by the Chamber in Washington politics isn’t unusual; in 2004, the Chamber plowed $1.5 million into the Washington Attorney General’s race, attacking Democratic candidate Deborah Senn (one of their Public Enemies No. 1, based on her slash-and-burn anti-corporate tactics as the state’s Insurance Commissioner). The Chamber also paid for pro-Reichert ads in 2006 (including some that had to be pulled for containing factual misrepres… um, well, lies).

Here’s the new Reichert spot that’s moving into heavy rotation, complete with the ritual invocation of “higher taxes”:

UPDATE: Burner is set to debut not one but two new TV spots of her own: here and here.

SurveyUSA (9/7-9, likely voters, 7/27-29 in parens):

Darcy Burner (D): 44 (44)

Dave Reichert (R-inc): 54 (50)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

A nice bump for Reichert, but what accounts for it? Given SUSA’s crosstabs gone haywire in North Carolina, could we be seeing something similar in these results — sparked in part, perhaps, by the Republican convention? Not that I can tell. The age, ethnicity, and party affiliation sample breakdowns are very similar to SUSA’s July poll, and this most recent poll actually sees a slight uptick in female voters — a group that breaks narrowly for Burner. Male voters, on the other hand, are flocking to Sheriff Dave by a wide 61-38 margin.

The most funky portion of the crosstabs? Voters under 35 support Reichert over Burner by a 16-point margin. Young voters going ga-ga for Republican incumbents and candidates is something we’ve seen quite often in many SUSA polls (especially ones from Minnesota), so it seems reasonable to find flaws with their voter screen here.

On another note, over at Pollster.com, Momentum Analysis’ Margie Omero has a blog post well worth reading on Roll Call’s recent controversial batch of SurveyUSA polls. I don’t mean to dump on SUSA all of a sudden — overall, I find that they produce quality work — but her critique is well worth considering. I would also like to draw special attention to one paragraph in particular:

First, there’s more to judging survey quality than whether it was conducted internally or by an independent third party.  But second, and perhaps more important, Congressional handicappers should rely on more than a single poll’s results to judge a race’s viability.

Well said. Too often we see people reflexively dismiss internal polling, as if the very nature of a partisan-commissioned poll deems the whole project untrustworthy. And it’s also been too easy for some people to stake their entire analysis of a race on a single poll without attempting to get a more holistic sense of the dynamics of that particular contest.

SSP currently rates WA-08 as a Tossup.

Votes are now being counted in Washington, where the “top two” primaries are being decided. While Washington’s mail-in system will mean that we won’t get the full picture tonight, we’ll at least get a piece of it. We’ll be following the returns for WA-Gov and WA-08 in this here thread.

RESULTS: WA-08 | WA-Gov (by county)

SoS: WA-Gov | WA-08

12:50PM Wed: With 77K votes counted in WA-08, Reichert has a 2600 vote lead over Burner. But: Two other Dems combined brought in an additional 4000 votes, and Reichert has only scored under 48% so far with no other “GOP Party” member on the ballot. Not a bad place for Darcy to be midway through August. Not a bad place, indeed.

12:32AM: SSP Labs is shutting down for the day. Presumably, these results will be finalized in a few days…

12:03AM: Check out the results for WA-08 in more detail — the other two Democrats combine for nearly 6% of the vote. Add all the Dem votes together, and you’re over 50% to the GOP’s 44%.

11:47PM: Reichert has pulled ahead by 1700 votes according to the SoS.

11:45PM: ChuckInSeattle, in the comments, shares some alternate results links (now included above).

11:38PM: 10% reporting statewide, and Gregoire leads Rossi 50-44.

11:27PM: With 13% in, Davey Reichert leads Darcy Burner by a nose: 20,356 to 20,140. Strong turnout so far.

11:19PM ET: Rossi with the early lead (50-43) with 4% in. Nothing from the 8th yet.