Tag: Senate

Ah, how the siren song of sixty senate seats serenades us. With “just” nine more seats in the upper chamber, Democrats can, in theory, exercise total control over the legislative agenda. Republicans will no longer be able to obstruct the progress the American people demand. And with a Democrat 1600 Pennsylvania and Nancy Pelosi guiding the People’s House with a firm hand, we will see the dawn of a new golden age for the Blue.

Hey, anything is possible, and nine seats certainly looks a lot more realistic, if still distant, today than it did a year ago. But here’s a new question: Have we just walked right smack into the next Republican talking-point scare tactic? Bob Novak, the Prince of Darkness, might have just tipped his hand in bringing up this tidbit:

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), in his second term running the Senate Democratic campaign, publicly expresses doubt about picking up an additional nine seats to achieve a filibuster-free Senate. But he has been soliciting popular Democratic governors from Oklahoma, Kansas and Wyoming to run against incumbent Republican Senators from those “red” states – perhaps even to win the magic nine seats. The problem is that these governors do not relish running with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket.

At first I thought this was just a way for the Douchebag of Liberty to ding Schumer by setting up absurdly unrealistic expectations, and to perpetuate a largely baseless smear against Clinton. But one of my political mentors suggested that the fear of a filibuster-proof Senate might serve as a baseline defense, the ultimate desperation firewall, a means for the GOP to nationalize the elections in their favor. I think this view may be right.

Indeed, Chuck Schumer is no dummy – he didn’t raise the issue of a sixty-seat Dem majority himself. While liberal bloggers and even Beltway prognosticators have openly discussed this possibility for some time, Schumer only spoke on the topic because the WaPo’s Chris Cillizza broached it in an interview. But Novakula – who often serves as a mouthpiece for the conservative hive mind – looks like he’s trying to make an issue out of this.

On the other hand, Novak is as delusional as often as he is right. It may well be that hyping procedural arcana to stoke Fear of a Blue Planet is a bridge too far even for the GOP. After all, Republican attempts to thwart Democrats last year by invoking the specter of a Pelosi-led House did not seem all that successful. And it’s one thing to pin your hopes on people understanding what majorities mean – start jawing about this sixty-seat silliness and all but the savviest may well tune you out.

In any event, stay alert for this potential talking point. If you see any examples of Republicans flogging this, let us know.

From the Albuquerque Journal:

I just learned from a source very close to Rep. Tom Udall that the Democratic congressman will NOT seek the U.S. Senate seat that Pete Domenici will vacate at the end of 2008.

The source tells me that Udall, after some serious soul-searching over the past 24 hours, has decided that he can do a better job for New Mexico in the U.S. House, where he has a coveted spot on the appropriations committee.

“It was not a decision that was made lightly,” the source told me. “He wants to continue increasing in seniority in the House.”

I hope this doesn’t mean that we’ll be saddled with a Marty Chavez candidacy.

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

From The Hill:

Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M) will run for the New Mexico Senate seat that is expected to open up officially later Thursday when Sen. Pete Domenici (R) declares that he will not seek reelection in 2008, according to a source familiar with Wilson’s decision.

A Wilson candidacy could prove to be a great twofer for Democrats: her involvement in the US Attorney scandal provides plenty of baggage to damage her Senate chances, and she leaves behind yet another open House seat ripe for the picking (at a PVI of D+2.4, Kerry won the district by three points in 2004).

And, from a Schumer statement via e-mail:

“New Mexico is a state where Democrats have a long history of winning elections, and with a deep bench of talented Democratic candidates, we look forward to fielding a nominee who will wage a successful campaign.  We feel very good about our chances to increase the Democratic majority in the Senate next year.”

Let the games begin.

UPDATE: More reaction from CQ Politics:

New Mexico’s two other House members, Democrat Tom Udall and Republican Steve Pearce, both were said to be mulling bids for the Senate race.

Democratic Rep. Mark Udall of Colorado said his cousin, Tom Udall, has “been planning for this moment,” but noted that Richardson remains a key player in the process. Udall was not expected to announce anything Thursday.
Pearce said he wanted to wait “a respectful time” before making a decision. “We should not be jockeying for position, kicking him out the door,” he said.

In a statement, Richardson said Domenici had been a “respected and powerful champion for New Mexico’s interests” for more than three decades. Tom Reynolds, a spokesman for his presidential campaign, said Richardson remained “100 percent committed to winning the White House.”

Democratic Lt. Gov. Denise Denish, who has been gearing up to run for governor in 2010 when Richardson would be term-limited out of office, said she would consider the Senate race.

“This reshuffles the whole deck in New Mexico,” she said of Domenici’s retirement.

“I’ve been very focused on running for governor and that’s still where my focus is right now, but I think in fairness I need to listen to some people that are talking to me about the possibility of running for this Senate seat and see what they have to say and see what the possibilities are,” she added.

Former New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid also said she was considering a bid for the seat. Madrid lost the 2006 election against Wilson for the 1st Congressional District by fewer than 900 points, and said she expected she would perform better in a statewide contest. “I think that I could run a very credible race,” she said.

With the news of Republican Sen. Pete Domenici’s expected retirement announcement tomorrow morning, let’s take a look at all the rumored candidates on the Democratic side to replace him:

State Attorney General and former 1st Congressional District candidate Patricia Madrid

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez

US Rep. Tom Udall

Former US Attorney John Kelly

Lt. Governor Diane Denish

Governor and Presidential candidate Bill Richardson

As the Hotline notes, the biggest wildcard here is Richardson.  If he wanted to, he could wait until his Prez bid flames out in the early primary states, as New Mexico has a February 8th filing deadline for the Senate race.  He would undoubtedly be the favorite in the primary and general.  However, how wise (and realistic) is it to wait for a Richardson entry at the 11th hour?

Chavez doesn’t inspire me, for what it’s worth.  I cannot forget this cringeworthy article in which he promised that not only would he not run against Domenici, he’d also vote for him.  On top of that, his endorsed candidates in this week’s city council elections all lost handily.  Ouch.

Jonathan Singer wants Udall.  How about you?  Who should run?  Who will run?

Update: While we’re at it, let’s look at the GOP’s bench in the state: Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  Given that Wilson is tarred by the same scandal that dogged Domenici for most of the year, she can no longer be considered a formidable candidate.  Given that the GOP bench is pretty much her and Pearce, that’s disastrous.  Who else could run for them?  Former US Attorney David Iglesias?  Or is he too disgusted with DC Republicans to even join their team anymore?

Anyone?  Anyone?  Bueller?

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

Max Baucus is up with an early ad highlighting his efforts to expand the State Children’s Health Insurance Program, and criticizing President Bush for his expected veto of the legislation:

The Montana Republican party has issued a laughable response:

The state GOP noted SCHIP has the support of many Republicans in the state, including U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg.

“This is an important issue for Montana,” said state Republican Party Executive Director Chris Wilcox. “I think it’s unfortunate that Baucus decided to politicize the issue.”

Wilcox said Baucus should be working with the Bush administration to advance SCHIP, rather than spending time making television advertisements.

Really?  I think it’s unfortunate that Bush has no interest in supporting this bipartisan legislation to expand badly needed health coverage to children across the country.  Perhaps the Montana GOP would be better served to direct their criticism towards the President, who (along with the crumb-bums in the House who are sustaining his veto threat) is the sole roadblock in the way of advancing social justice for kids.

(H/T: Left in the West)

September was a great month for Senate Democrats. Is started with news that John Warner was retiring, featured the endless saga of Larry Craig’s guilty plea to lewd behavior, saw another crucial GOP seat open up in Nebraska and was marked with recruitment coups with the candidacies of Mark Warner in VA and Jeanne Shaheen in NH. In fact, the only bad news Democrats are fearing now is that Bob Kerrey might end up taking a pass in Nebraska — but even there, the fat lady hasn’t yet sung.

All of this is really icing on the cake for Democrats, who already felt great before Labor Day. Not only is the GOP is defending 22 seats, and the Dems only 12, but the NRSC has been doing poorly in fundraising and recruitment, failing to move to target states beyond… the one state of Louisiana. Democrats, on the other hand, are expanding the map left and right: While they are huge underdogs in TN, KY, NM, TX, and ID, odds are they will at least put one of those in play (just like VA in 2006 and KY in 2004 became competitive only in the last stretch). And the most problematic second-tier seat is turning to be Alaska, where incumbent Ted Stevens is facing significant bribery allegations.

The coming weeks are likely to bring more news that will determine how some of these races shape up. Bob Kerrey’s decision is obviously what everyone is waiting for, but there are other important questions: Will Craig retire as he had promised? Will there be more open seats, with all eyes turned towards SD’s Tim Johnson, AK’s Stevens, and NM’s Pete Domenici? Will Democrats find candidates to run against Dole in NC, Domenici in NM, Stevens in AK, McConnell in KY? All of these races could end up on the map, but Democrats have to succeed in their recruitment efforts first.

The first 4 states are listed after the jump. For the full rankings, go here, to CampaignDiaries.com.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up 4-7 seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-44 majority.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 3)

Virginia inaugurates the “Likely Takeover” category.  When John Warner announced he was retiring at the end of August, Virginia immediately became a top pick-up opportunity for Democrats. And events in September certainly didn’t help dispel the notion that this is their race to lose: Very popular former Governor Mark Warner entered the race on their behalf, while the GOP is showing every indication that it is heading towards a divisive primary between moderate Rep. Tom Davis and conservative former Governor Jim Gilmore. To make matters much worse for Republicans, a few polls taken this month show Warner with massive leads of about 25% or more against both Davis and Gilmore.

Republicans argue that Warner has never been fully tested, and that they can lower his ratings by finally going on the offensive against him. While this may be true, Democrats can rest in peace (for now) for two simple reasons: (1) Warner has a lot of room to give before being truly threatened given the massive nature of his lead, and (2) Warner will have plenty of time to re-introduce himself to voters and strengthen their good impression of him.

That said, Tom Davis could make the race more competitive. He represents Northern Virginia, the region that has been trended dramatically blue over the past few years. Any Democrat who wants to win in VA has to carry Fairfax and the neighboring counties overwhelmingly, and Davis could cut in Warner’s margins there. He first needs to win the GOP nomination then. If Republicans nominate their candidate through a primary, Davis has a good chance of winning. But if they opt to nominate him through a party convention, conservative activists could opt for the weaker Gilmore.

Lean Takeover (2 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

2. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 1)

A lot has changed in this race in the past month. At the beginning of September, the Democratic field was composed of three candidates who were hoping to take on Senator Sununu. A few weeks later, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen announced she would enter the race, setting up a rematch of the 2002 election. Two of the three Democrats already in the race (Marchand and Swett) withdrew, leaving Dartmouth Professor Jay Buckley as Shaheen’s sole primary opposition. Many grassroots activists are questioning the party’s rush to rally around Shaheen, a moderate politician who supported the war in 2003 and was not known for being particularly progressive during her terms as governor. But Shaheen is likely to coast to the nomination.

Polls throughout the summer showed Shaheen had Shaheen with gigantic leads averaging 20 points. That put Sununu in an even worse position than Santorum was in in 2006. How can an incumbent who is trailing by 20 points a year before the election possibly come back to win another term? But two polls taken shortly after Shaheen jumped in the race made Democrats a bit more confident. Shaheen only led by 5%. That is enough to make her the favorite (an incumbent in the low 40s rarely survives), but certainly not enough to count Sununu out.

Republicans argue that they beat Shaheen before, and they will use the same tactics against her in 2008. They see her record on taxes as particularly prone to attack. But Sununu barely edged Shaheen in 2002, at the height of Bush’s popularity. The GOP took a drubbing in New Hampshire in 2006, and the Republican brand looks even worse today — what fundamentals can Sununu rely on to come-back?

3. Colorado (Open; Previous ranking: 2)

This race has not made much news lately, probably because the basic story-line was settled months ago: Senator Allard retired, and both parties rallied around a candidate. Rep. Udall for Democrats, and former Rep. Shaffer for the GOP. Colorado has been voting for Democrats in open seat races in the past few years (the Salazar brothers in 2004, Governor Ritter in 2006), and have to be considered slightly favored here again. A recent poll commissioned by the Shaffer campaign gave Udall a 5-point lead. That certainly shows the state could still end up going for Republicans, but the poll was a partisan one, so it should be taken with a big grain of salt. This race will certainly shift around on the basis of future polls and campaign developments, but for now it is remarkably static.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. Nebraska (Open; Last Ranking: 8)

Chuck Hagel announced his retirement last week, setting up what many people view as the marquee race of the 2008 cycle: former Republican Governor Mike Johanns versus former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey. Both men were rumored to be very interested in the race, but for now only Johanns has announced his candidacy. Recent reports indicate that Kerrey might be leaning against a run after all!

This race’s outlook will change dramatically in the coming days, as Kerrey is likely to announce his intentions very soon. If he does run, the race might edge into “lean takeover” territory — given Kerrey’s popularity in the state. If he ends up staying out of it, this race would drop down significantly, Johanns would be the favorite even if Omaha’s Democratic Mayor Fahey agrees to jump in. Fahey would keep the race competitive, but he would find it difficult to overcome the state’s overwhelming Republican lean, especially in a presidential year.

The second hope Democrats harbor is that Johanns will be stuck in a divisive primary. The state’s Attorney General Bruning had been planning to run against Chuck Hagel in the primary, and he is showing no intention of backing down now that Johanns is in the race. Former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub entered the race for a few days, ran ads, and then decided to withdraw, setting up a two-way primary. This could prove an opening for the Democratic candidate (either Kerrey or Fahey) who would have time to introduce himself to voters and define the terms of the campaign.

Full Rankings are available here, with full detailed rankings of all 34 races!

I just got this e-mail blast in my inbox, and thought it’d be worth sharing.  It looks like Rep. Mark Udall is aiming to get the House to pass a resolution condemning Rush Limbaugh for his recent denunciation of servicemen and women who don’t toe Bush’s line on Iraq as “phony soldiers“:

JOIN AS AN ORIGINAL COSPONSOR OF A RESOLUTION HONORING OUR ARMED
FORCES AND CONDEMNING RUSH LIMBAUGH’S ATTACK ON “PHONY SOLDIERS”

Dear Colleague:

On September 26, 2007 the broadcaster Rush Limbaugh told a nationwide
radio audience that members of the Armed Forces who have expressed
disagreement with current policies of the United States regarding
military activities in Iraq are “phony soldiers.”

On Monday I will introduce a resolution honoring all Americans serving
in the Armed Forces and condemning this unwarranted attack on the
integrity and professionalism of those in the Armed Forces who choose
to exercise their constitutional right to express their opinions
regarding U.S. military action in Iraq.

Sincerely,

Mark Udall

Barely a week after announcing his candidacy, former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub will exit the Republican primary to succeed retiring Senator Chuck Hagel, the Omaha World-Herald reports:

Daub, 66, was expected to announce today that the time is not right for his campaign, said four people close to Daub who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

His announcement comes on the heels of GOP powerhouse Mike Johanns’ expected entry into the race. Johanns, twice elected governor and then appointed U.S. agriculture secretary, shook up the GOP primary battle last week when he resigned his post in President Bush’s Cabinet.

Johanns has the backing of the Washington, D.C., GOP establishment and a proven ability to run a strong, grass-roots campaign in Nebraska. Unlike Daub, Johanns has won two statewide races. Daub, who also is a former congressman, lost two prior U.S. Senate bids.

Daub did not return telephone calls.

But he began to call friends and supporters Thursday afternoon to break the news that he was getting out. He told them it was an uphill battle when he began, and that it became much tougher with a Johanns candidacy.

Despite his resentment towards the NRSC for their efforts to clear the field for Johanns, Daub seems to know what’s coming: a recent poll released by the NRSC had Daub trailing Johanns and Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning by a 58%-16%-12% margin among GOP primary voters.  Ouch.

Meanwhile, former Democratic Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey is sending out more mixed signals, this time by saying that the prospect of a Senate candidacy “excites” him, but that his only concern is the toll it might take on his young son, Henry.  We can expect his decision “soon”.

(Big hat-tips to the New Nebraska Network)

In a recent poll comissioned by the state Democratic party, Alaskan voters said that they were unlikely to re-elect Republican Internet Guru Ted Stevens to the US Senate.

Likelihood to re-elect (Hays Research Group, 9/17-18; June results in parentheses; n=401; MoE=+-4.9%):

Very Unlikely: 29 (30)
Somewhat Unlikely: 16 (13)
Undecided: 11 (6)
Somewhat Likely: 16 (22)
Very Likely: 27 (28)

These numbers are certainly moving in the right direction, as a full 45% of Alaskans say they're unlikely to re-elect the veteran legislator to a seventh full term.

I guess all the corruption was bound to catch up to him at some point.

Here’s an interesting nugget from Virginia: a poll testing the strength of Democratic challenger Chap Peterson, who is going up against Republican incumbent Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis, the wife of Rep. Tom Davis, in Virginia’s 34th state Senate district this November.  First, a few caveats about the poll: 1) Not Larry Sabato, the source of the poll, has a good track record of getting inside dope in Virginia, but we don’t know anything about the poll other than its results–crosstabs, margin of error, or even the name of the pollster.  2) State legislative districts are notoriously difficult to poll.  It’s difficult to get a good sample in a small voter pool (it’s hard enough with a congressional district) like a state senate district in Virginia (which contain under 200K people).

That said, take it or leave it (Pollster Unknown, 9/23-24; July results in parens; n=406):

Chap Peterson (D): 46 (38)
Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis (R-inc.): 36 (39)
Undecided: 17 (22)

The battle between Peterson and Devolites-Davis is seen by many as a proxy war of sorts between Tom Davis and former Gov. Mark Warner, who are both vying for the seat of retiring US Senator John Warner.  The poll also tests their strength in the state Senate district, which NLS describes as “the heart of the 11th district”, Tom Davis’ political base:

Mark Warner (D): 53
Tom Davis (R): 35

If this poll is at all accurate (and that’s anyone’s guess, given the questionable track record of state legislative race polls), Tom and Jeannemarie have their work cut out for them in Northern Virginia.