As reported on front page over at Kos.
With Johanns jumping in and Kerrey backing out, I think I know what the early polling looks like. Personally, I’m willing to get a LOT more excited about a Scott Kleeb or someone else, who will probably also lose, but can get Nebraska Dems excited and working hard.
According to the Lincoln Journal Star and the Omaha World-Herald, Agriculture Secretary and former Nebraska Gov. Mike Johanns will announce his entry into the Republican primary next week for the seat currently held by the departing Senator Chuck Hagel:
It looks like Republican Mike Johanns is ready to come home and run for the U.S. Senate.Johanns, who is U.S. agriculture secretary, spent part of last week shopping for a home in Omaha, said Michael Kennedy, a Johanns supporter and GOP activist.
The former governor will have a “major announcement” next week, Kennedy said.
“I’m fairly confident Mike’s announcement will be positive for the citizens of Nebraska,” Kennedy said Tuesday night.
Johanns, a popular former Governor, would be the heavyweight in the GOP primary against state Attorney General Jon Bruning, former Representative and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, and businessman Pat Flynn. He would also prove to be a formidable opponent to former Democratic Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey, who is expected to announce a decision of his own in the very near future.
Kerrey had to have been expecting a tough candidate like Johanns to run against, so I’m not sure if this development will affect his deliberations. In any event, it looks like the Nebraska Senate race could prove to be a clash of two statewide titans.
Race Tracker: NE-Sen
Man, Chuck Schumer has got to be doing back-flips today. First Mark Warner, and now Jeanne Shaheen:
Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen will be a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008, the New Hampshire Union Leader has learned. The Democratic former three-term chief executive is expected to issue a statement today addressing her political plans. While it’s unclear exactly how the statement will be phrased, sources say Shaheen has decided to seek the seat held by Republican John E. Sununu, who defeated her in a bitter 2002 contest.Shaheen, 60, will resign as director of the Harvard University Institute of Politics, a post she has held since April 2005.
It remains to be seen whether Katrina Swett or Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand will drop out of the primary. Med school professor Jay Buckey will stay in no matter what.
UPDATE: Schumer’s statement, via e-mail:
“Jeanne Shaheen will be a great candidate and a great Senator. We are excited that someone who represents the best of New Hampshire and American values is our candidate for the Senate. With Jeanne Shaheen and Mark Warner announcing their candidacies in the last two days, our efforts to increase our majority in the Senate got a tremendous shot in the arm.”
Race Tracker: NH-Sen
So, now that we're likely to knock out Sununu, is it time to concentrate on the last Republican member of congress in the state (Gregg)?
Looking into the 2008 senate elections, we've been given a good look at what everyone here thinks on the details and the general picture of the 2008 elections. Now it's time to look at a bunch of 2008 senate rankings from various groups.
CQ Politics ranks two Democratics seats as “leans Democratic” (Landrieu and Johnson) and four as being “Democrat favored” (Baucus, Harkin, Lautenberg, and Pryor) everyone else is considered “safe Democratic”.
The Republicans, on the other hand, start off with one seat being listed as “leans Democratic” (Open Virginia), two as “no clear favorite” (Open Colorado and Coleman), four as “leans Republican” (Open Nebraska, Collins, Smith, Sununu), and ten as being “Republican favored” (Stevens, Chambliss, Sessions, McConnell, Dole, Domenici, Inhofe, Graham, Alexander, and Cornyn). The rest are considered safe.
Cook ranks one Democrat as being a “leans Democratic” (Landrieu) and one as being “likely Democratic” (Johnson – Poss. Ret.) while everyone else is considered “safe”.
For the Republicans, he lists two seats as being “Toss-up” (Colorado and Virginia open seats), four as being “leans Republican” (Collins, open Nebraska, Coleman, and Sununu), and five as being “likely Republican” (Stevens – poss. ret., Domenici – poss. ret., Craig, Smith, and Dole), the rest are considered “safe” with Inhofe and Cochran considered as possible retirements.
Rothenberg considers three Republicans (Sununu and open seats for Virginia and Colorado) to be “toss-ups”; three Republicans (Coleman, Collins, and Smith) and one Democrat (Landrieu) to be “narrow advantage incumbent party”; five Republicans (Dole, Domenici, Open Nebraska, McConnell, and Stevens) and one Democrat (Johnson) to be “clear advantage incumbent party”; and everyone else is considered to be safe. *note, Rothenberg has only officially updated 'til Hagel's announced retirement
Also, Larry Sabato has his own senate predictions in addition to House and Governor's races with some analysis of the states if you care to read them.
I want to say that I personally don't agree with Cook's assessment that Sununu can be considered a “leans Republican”. Even if Shaheen doesn't jump in, this race is, at best, a toss-up and a lean-Democratic if she does jump in. That's just me though, what do you guys think?
So, Politico is saying that Mark Warner is indeed going to be running.
2008’s Senate races have taken more shape in recent weeks and months, with the entry of some challengers (Merkley, Rice) and the retirement of others (Hagel, Warner, Craig). But we’re still waiting on plenty of big names and lesser lights to announce their intentions. Here’s a list of the notable names that we’re waiting to hear from (and yes, some of these names are extremely unlikely to run):
Alaska: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D); former AK House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz
Arkansas: Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R); 2004 nominee Jim Holt (R); J. French Hill (R); Chuck Banks (R)
Delaware: Rep. Mike Castle (R)
Idaho: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch (R); state AG Lawrence Wasden (R); former state AG David Leroy (R); state Sen. Michael Jorgensen; state Sen. John McGee (R); former state Sen. Dane Watkins (R)
Iowa: Rep. Steve King (R); Rep. Tom Latham (R)
Louisiana: Treasurer John Kennedy (DR); Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R); Rep. Jim McCrery (R); Woody Jenkins (R); Suzanne Haik Terrell (R)
Kansas: Former Rep. Jim Slattery (D); former Republican State House Speaker Joe Hoagland (D); Steve Boyda (D)
Kentucky: Charlie Owen (D); Andrew Horne (D); Rep. Ben Chandler (D); Bruce Lunsford (D); Larry Forgy (R)
Mississippi: Former state AG Mike Moore (D)
Nebraska: Former Gov. and Sen. Bob Kerrey (D); Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey (D); Scott Kleeb (if Kerrey and Fahey pass); former Gov. and Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns (R); former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub (R)
New Hampshire: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Anne Evans Estabrook (R); Joseph Pennacchio (R)
New Mexico: Gov. Bill Richardson (D); Rep. Tom Udall (D); state AG Patricia Madrid (D); former US Attorney John Kelly (D)
North Carolina: State Rep. Grier Martin (D); state Sen. Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma:State Sen. Kenneth Corn (D)
South Dakota: Gov. Mike Rounds (R); Dusty Johnson (R)
Tennessee : Mike McWherter (D); Bob Tuke (D); Mike Doherty (D); former Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D)
Virginia: Former Gov. Mark Warner (D); former Lt. Gov Don Beyer (D); former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R); Rep. Tom Davis (R)
[Originally posted at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]
It seems like Republicans are doing, as Mitch McConnell might say, their “Washington best” to lower expectations for the 2008 Senate elections. Here is a collection of interesting quotes from Republicans in the know regarding the ’08 Senate races.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell:
Republicans are unlikely to win back control of the Senate in 2008, their Senate leader, Mitch McConnell, said Friday, gloomily predicting that “holding our own is about all we could hope for.” … “It would take an extraordinarily good day to get back up to 50. So our goal is to stay roughly where we are.” [CNN, 7/20/07]
(Much more below the fold.)
NRSC Chair John Ensign:
“If you scratch the surface, things don’t look necessarily that good,” he said. “But when you get below the surface, things aren’t nearly as bad as what they could be.” [Associated Press, 9/9/07]
and
In a “wide-ranging” interview, Ensign “acknowledged that his party faces a steep, uphill climb in next year’s Senate elections when 21 Republican seats will be up for grabs, compared with 12 for the Democrats.” [Washington Times, 3/26/07]
NRSC Communications Director Rebecca Fisher:
Rebecca Fisher, communications director for the NRSC, acknowledged “the mountain that we’re up against,” but predicted success. [USINFO, 9/10/07]
Anonymous GOP Operative:
“About the only safe Republican Senate seats in ’08 are the ones that aren’t on the ballot,” a GOP operative with extensive experience in Senate races said. “I don’t see even the rosiest scenario where we don’t end up losing more seats.” [Washington Post, 9/2/07]
Unnamed Republican Senators:
“Republican Senators are now talking about losing four seats in 2008.” [Evans-Novak Political Report, 8/29/07]
It is shaping up like Republican leadership expects a four-seat net loss to be the best-case scenario. I expect we’ll see more commentary from Republicans along these lines as the races further develop. If you’ve seen any similar quotes already, share them in the comments.
As we wait for former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner (D) to reveal his plans for the open Senate seat left behind by retiring Republican John Warner, I thought it might be useful to take a look at the track record of Governors who ran for the Senate during the last 10 Congressional elections. By my count, there have been 24 Governors (sitting, retiring, or former) who ran for Senate seats between 1986 and 2006. 15 of them were victorious. Here’s the full list (italics denote a challenge to an incumbent; all other races were open seats):
2004Alaska: Tony Knowles (D), lost by 3% 2002
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaeen (D), lost by 4% Oklahoma: David Walters (D), lost by 21% Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R), won by 10% 2000
Delaware: Tom Carper (D), won by 12% Missouri: Mel Carnahan (D), won by 2% Nebraska: Ben Nelson (D), won by 2% Virginia: George Allen (R), won by 4% 1998
Indiana: Evan Bayh (D), won by 29% Ohio: George Voinovich (R), won by 12% 1996
Nebraska: Ben Nelson (D), lost by 14% Maine: Joe Brennan (D), lost by 6% Massachusetts: William Weld (R), lost by 7% 1994
Missouri: John Ashcroft (R), won by 24% Wyoming: Mike Sullivan (D), lost by 30% 1992
New Hampshire: Judd Gregg (R), won by 3% 1990
(none)1988
Nebraska: Bob Kerrey (D), won by 15% Nevada: Richard Bryan (D), won by 4% Virginia: Chuck Robb (D), won by 42% 1986
Florida: Bob Graham (D), won by 10% Idaho: John Evans (D), lost by 3% Missouri: Kit Bond (R), won by 5% North Carolina: Terry Sanford (D), won by 4% Vermont: Richard Snelling (R), lost by 29%
There was actually a 25th Governor that I did not include: former Massachusetts Governor Endicott Peabody (D), who served for one two-year term in the mid-1960s. Two decades later, he moved to New Hampshire and ran for Senate against Republican incumbent Warren Rudman, losing by a wide 32% margin. But I’m only going to count Governors who ran for the Senate seat of the same state.
Overall, Governors have had a 63% success rate in Senate races over the past 10 cycles, and a similar rate in open seat races. Interestingly, over two-thirds of these Governors with Senatorial ambitions have been Democrats.
Did I miss anyone?
I've mentioned this before, but we have a good opportunity to create a filibuster-proof majority by the end of the 2010 senate elections. In order to take advantage of this we need to look at making sure that we exploit every last possibly competitive seat this cycle and the next one.
First of all, this is my estimation of what the competitiveness of the 2010 senate cycle is going to look like:
(Held by Democrats)
(Likely competitive)
(Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])
(Held by Republicans)
(Likely competitive)
(Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])
Now, this is a preliminary look at the 2010 map, and I'm certain there is going to be some disagreement as to the specifics, but 2010 is probably going be another year with a field that the Democrats can take advantage of (since the Republicans have already take most of the southern seats up in 2004, they have no real pool for picking up seats in 2010). Assuming we can win 5 seats in 2008, we'd have to pick up at least 4 more in 2010 in order to get that filibuster-proof majority we want (let''s face it, even in the best-case scenario, we're not getting a filibuster-proof majority in 2008).
That's the good news, the bad news is in 2012, where the map is stacked very heavily against us. There are going to be 24 Democrats up for re-election in 2012 compared to only 9 Republicans (ok, fine 22 Democrats 2 independents, one of which could conceivably turn in that time period). Here's the estimation for 2012:
(Held by Democrats)
(Likely competitive)
(Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])
(Held by Republicans)
(Likely competitive)
(Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])
This is the consequences of winning this many seats in a year that, quite frankly, by the numbers should have favored Republicans in the Senate. 2012 will be a miserable year for us in the Senate, there is no way around that fact, but if we take appropriate measures now, we can have build a large enough buffer that we can not only retain the senate, but we can keep a working majority of at least 55 seats after the Senate elections.