Tag: Senate

From the Omaha World Herald:

Chuck Hagel will announce Monday that he is retiring from the U.S. Senate and will not run for president next year, people close to the Nebraska Republican said Friday.

Hagel plans to announce that “he will not run for re-election and that he does not intend to be a candidate for any office in 2008,” said one person, who asked not to be named. […]

According to one person interviewed, Hagel told Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky on Friday morning that he had decided to retire. Hagel’s staff learned of his decision that afternoon.

Let the circus begin.  In the Republican corner, we have state Attorney General Jon Bruning, former Gov. Mike Johanns, former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, and businessman Tony Raimondo.  For the Democrats, we could have one of the following: former Sen. Bob Kerrey, Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, and 2006 congressional candidate Scott Kleeb.

Race Tracker Wiki: NE-Sen

Although Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) is waflling on whether or not he actually plans to resign, there's already been plenty of speculation about who would take his place. Now we learn from The Hill that one possible contender, disgusted with the GOP's handling of the scandal, is taking his name out of consideration: 

Rep. Mike Simpson (R) condemned Senate GOP leaders on Thursday for their treatment of fellow Idahoan Sen. Larry Craig (R), accusing them of hypocrisy.

“I hope I never stub my toe and they throw me under the bus,” Simpson said of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and other Republican leaders. “It kind of makes you wonder what party you want to be a member of.”

Simpson underscored that he is not considering switching parties. But he also emphasized that he would not want to serve in the Senate, even if chosen by Idaho Gov. C.L. “Butch” Otter (R) to replace Craig.

 

Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner has often spoken of the two options he must choose from: a Senate bid in 2008, or a return to the Governor’s mansion in 2009.  There is also the talk of a third “choice”: accepting a hypothetical VP nomination on the Democratic Presidential ticket next year.

Today in Roll Call (subscription only), John McArdle takes a closer look at Warner’s deliberations.  The big news is: Warner will reveal his decision sooner rather than later.

Monica Dixon, a senior adviser to the former governor, said Wednesday that her boss intends to make his political plans known sometime “within the next week or so.”

Warner would face a tough choice.  Known to have Presidential ambitions (he terminated a potential 2008 candidacy last year), Warner is said to enjoy the executive lifestyle of the Governor’s office, and another successful gubernatorial term could be more helpful in a Presidential campaign than having to deal with the baggage of a Senate term.  But an open Senate seat in Virginia would be his to lose, and could add another dimension to his resume:

But people who know Mark Warner well say a Senate bid makes sense for him at this point in his political career.

Steve Jarding, Warner’s campaign manager during his 2001 gubernatorial run, said he has advised his old boss to make the jump to the Senate.

“He’s been a chief executive now,” Jarding said. “He knows that playing field and he performed well in Virginia. … He accomplished a lot. And I think that part of who Mark is is complete.””

When Mark Warner lost to John Warner in 1996, “there was a part of him who thought that [the Senate] isn’t the best place [for him],” Jarding added. “But that was then, and I think he has since then come a long way.”

[…]

Rhett Walker, a political consultant in Virginia who has been involved in numerous statewide political campaigns, said a Senate seat would not only improve Warner’s name recognition outside of Virginia, but also provide him with experiences that he couldn’t get serving in state office.

“Although the common wisdom has been that it’s better to run for national office as a governor, I personally think [Mark Warner] is looking at the trend that people are going to be demanding more experience on international and national defense,” Walker said. “Leading a trade mission in Virginia is one thing, but that is no substitute for getting true experience with international affairs and national defense, which you would be getting in the U.S. Senate.”

Jarding also adds that biding his time for a VP slot would be too frustrating for Warner:

“I think he’d be on anybody’s short list and would be a tremendous choice” for vice president, Jarding said. “But my own sense is that … Mark looks and says, ‘I’m not going to wait for someone else to make a decision. I need to make a decision for what I believe is in the best interest of those who I want to serve … and if that means that takes me off the [vice presidential] list, then so be it.’

“I’ve been in the business a long time,” added Jarding, a veteran political operative who currently works for Sen. Tim Johnson (D-S.D.). “I believe that any time you put yourself in a situation where you make a decision based on what you predict somebody else might make you probably made a bad decision.”

Unlike Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, it looks like Mark Warner won’t be teasing us for too much longer.

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

Back in July, we asked you to rank the top ten Senate races in order of their likeliness to flip control in 2008.  In his most recent ranking, the WaPo’s Chris Cillizza rated 2008’s Senate races as follows (previous rankings in parens):

1. Colorado (1)
2. New Hampshire (2)
3. Louisiana (3)
4. Virginia (6)
5. Oregon (7)
6. Maine (4)
7. Minnesota (5)
8. Nebraska (8)
9. South Dakota (9)
10. Alaska (-)

There’s been quite a bit of hot Senate action since we last rated the races, including but not limited to (in rough chronological order):

1. KY-Sen: State Attorney General Greg Stumbo formed an exploratory committee for a run against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
2. AK-Sen: More deterioration and headaches for Ted Stevens.
3. OR-Sen: Speaker of the Oregon House Jeff Merkley entered the race against Republican Gordon Smith.
4. OK-Sen: State Senator Andrew Rice entered the race against Republican Jim Inhofe.
5. AL-Sen: State Senator Vivian Figures entered the race against Republican Jeff Sessions.
6. LA-Sen: Raising all kinds of red flags of a potential challenge to Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, Louisiana State Treasurer John Kennedy switched parties.
7. ID-Sen: Larry Craig got caught cruising for a good time in a Minnesota airport men’s room.  His resignation announcement may have been a bit premature, however, as Craig has indicated that he’d like to fight the charges (which he plead guilty to) this month.  If successful, Craig appears likely to serve out the remainder of his Senate term, and then retire.
8. SD-Sen: Tim Johnson announced his return to the U.S. Senate, and of his plans to seek re-election, after months of recovery from a traumatic brain injury last December.
9. VA-Sen: Republican Sen. John Warner hung up his spurs, fueling speculation that Republican Rep. Tom Davis and former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner may announce their intentions to succeed him.

Quite a lot of action.  How will these developments affect your list?  Post your top ten in the comments.

UPDATE: Something has gone screwy with the formatting in the comments section.  We’re attempting to iron out the kinks.  Hang tight.

UPDATE 2: I think we’ve fixed the problem.  If you’re still having trouble reading the comments in the extended entry (specifically, if the comments are bleeding into the very far right of the screen and pushing the right-hand column several inches to the right), do a hard refresh (CTRL and F5 on most browsers) and let us know if you still have problems.

It’s the first of the month — so it’s time to update our Senate rankings.

It has been obvious for months that the 2008 Senate cycle would favor Democrats. Even before taking into account the anti-GOP national mood that allowed Democrats to prevail in every close Senate race in 2006 but Tennessee, the raw numbers tell the story: the GOP is defending 23 seats (since WY now has two seats to fill this cycle), and the Dems only 12. Add to this the continually deteriorating atmosphere for Republicans, and you get poor fundraising for the NRSC, recruitment failures, and pessimist Republican operatives. The DSCC has been moving aggressively to press its advantage and to expand the playing field to new states. For now, NRSC Chairman Ensign is doing an even worst job than Sen. Dole did in 2005-2006. His fundraising is even worse, and he has failed to recruit top-tier Republican challengers – something Dole had at least done a good job at (Kean in NJ and Steele in MD, who could both have won in an other election cycle).

The rankings reflect this state of affair. The races are ranked from most vulnerable to take-over to safest to the incumbent party – and the top 6 seats are Republican. In fact, there are only 2 Democratic seats (Louisiana and South Dakota) in this list of 15 races! The WaPo quotes a GOP pollster as saying, “It’s always darkest right before you get clobbered over the head with a pipe wrench. But then it actually does get darker.”

It is now too late for Republicans to reverse the situation – their endangered seats can no longer be made safe – but they can still hope to save face if they expand the playing field a bit: Democratic seats in Iowa and Montana have the potential of being competitive, but Republicans have barely made a move to challenge them yet. But this is one of the most important challenges facing the GOP in 2008: It is playing defense in so many states it can afford neither the time nor the money to go on the offensive against Democratic incumbents to at least test their vulnerability, and the NRSC is likely to settle on only challenging Landrieu in Louisiana.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up of 3-6 seats

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-44 majority.

The top 6 is after the jump. Read full rankings here, on Campaign Diaries.

Lean Takeover (3 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

1. New Hampshire (Incumbent: Senator Sununu)

The Pennsylvania of the 2008 cycle. Sen. Sununu, preparing for his first re-election race, finds himself in a huge hole. If former Governor Shaheen enters the race in September (there hasn’t been much news from her since Robert Novak reported a few months back that her husband was saying there was a 70% she would run), she will start with a double-digit lead. A few polls already released have her 20% ahead. Casey was in a similar position against then Senator Santorum starting in the summer of 2005 – and he never looked back.

New Hampshire’s monumental swing to the Democrats in 2006 (they pulled two upsets to grab both the House seats and posted huge gains in the state house and in the state senate to take control of both) makes it that much harder for Sununu to hold on in a state that is clearly trending blue. And it also guarantees that the race stays competitive even if Shaheen takes a pass. The race will then undoubtedly be much closer, but the Democrats have other candidates that would make Sununu sweat it out. There are three candidates vying for the Democratic nod for now: Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, Katrina Swett and Jay Buckey. Swett has been painted by the netroots as a Lieberman-type moderate (she did support Lieberman’s independant campaign in 06) who has to be stopped at all costs in the primary, so things could get ugly pretty fast.

The safest bet is that they will all withdraw if Shaheen gets in, but they seem to be increasingly annoyed at the way they are being treated, so some of them might end up staying in. They were in particular annoyed at a DSCC release in early August that argued for the competitiveness of the NH race by touting Shaheen’s candidacy, but there were no mention of the other candidates.

2. Colorado (Open)

Senator Allard had come from behind to win re-election in 2002. But he clearly did not relish the thought of another close election, and he chose to call it quits early in the cycle. Colorado is the only open senate seat for now, and is on every Democrat’s target list. The Democratic field has quickly unified behind Rep. Udall, who has been preparing to run for years now. He has been raising a lot of money, and hoping to capitalize on the state’s blue trend: Salazar’s victory in 2004, two House seats picked-up in 2004 and 2006 and the 2006 take-over of the governorship.

Udall seemed to have closed the deal a few months ago when the Republican front-runner suddenly withdrew, leaving the Republicans without a strong candidate. But they quickly found former Rep. Bob Shaffer, who lost the 2004 Senate Republican primary. Shaffer is strongly conservative, and the Democrats will paint him as too far to the right. But Republicans will strike right back, charging Udall is too liberal for the state (it is true that Udall represents one of the more Democratic districts in the state, and that his voting record has put him in the liberal wing of the House).

The race has not been particularly eventful for now – except for recent allegations that Shaffer has engaged in some unethical conduct, a story to be followed for sure.

3. Virginia (Open seat)

Sen. John Warner announced on Friday, August 31st that he will not run for a six-term. Virginia thus became a huge opportunity for Democrats. But to capitalize on the state’s recent move towards the Democratic Party (, the Democrats need popular former Governor Mark Warner to jump in the race for the Democrats. This would make it very difficult for Republicans to keep the seat.

Yes, Virginia remains a Republican state – and the GOP nominee will be strongly favored in the presidential election. But the Democrats are on a roll in the state with the back-to-back victories of Gov. Kaine in 2005 and Sen. Webb in 2006. And Mark Warner left office immensely popular, which probably is what got Kaine elected in the first place. To make matters worse, the Republicans are likely to break in a bitter fight, with conservatives already lining up behind former Governor (and brief presidential candidate) Gilmore to block Rep. Tom Davis, a moderate Republican who has been raising a lot of money (and who was all but endorsed today by John Warner).

This would not, however, be a blowout for Democrats. Virginia is still a Republican state – and the increased turnout of a presidential year would guarantee that the race stays close. Also, if the Republican candidate is Davis, he could neutralize some of the Democratic advantage in Fairfax, since he represents the Northern part of the state in Congress. And if Mark Warner takes a pass (and he certainly could, either because he wants to run for Governor again in 2009 or because he wants to stay in contention to be the vice-presidential pick next summer), Republicans would be once again favored to hold on to this seat.

Toss-up (3 R, 1 D)

4. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith)

Gordon Smith has known he has a target on his back for a while now, and he has taken steps accordingly. He has been the first Republican Senator to break with Bush on the War – but is that too little too late? Like all Republican defectors, Smith has never voted against the Administration on war-related issues, and Democrats are poised to use this to attack him. Oregon is a blue state – albeit by the smallest of margins – and the Democrat will benefit from presidential coattails. Until recently, Democrats did not have a candidate, as their top choices passed on the race one after the other. But they suddenly got two! The favorite is shaping to be Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House – widely credited for organizing the Democratic take-over of that chamber last year, and for going forward with a progressive agenda since then.

5. Maine (Incumbent: Susan Collins)

If New Hampshire is this cycle’s Pennsylvania, Maine could be its Rhode Island. A popular Republican incumbent in a very blue state facing a Democrat who does his best to tie him to the Bush Administration and the Iraq War. Olympia Snowe got a pass in 2006, but Sen. Susan Collins is getting no such thing. Rep. Tom Allen has already started running against her, and the race is heating up.

But Collins is no Chaffee. Chaffee committed mistake after mistake, falling behind early in the fall of 2006. He also faced a significant challenge on the Right, only surviving his primary 54% to 46%. Collins faces no such hurdle, and has already set her sight on Allen. Democratic operatives have realized how hard it will to drive Collins down, and it is no coincidence that the blogosphere is going after her the hardest: DailyKos is pouncing Collins for a seemingly minor controversy over her demand that Allen stop sending people to film her, and state papers are jumping in the fray – mostly against Collins.

6. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman)

Yes, Al Franken appears to be for real. He has raised millions of dollars, and is attacking Senator Coleman from all directions. But he will first have to survive the primary against very wealthy businessman Mike Ciresi, who is willing to spend his own money to win the race. The big question for now is whether Al Franken is electable – the answer could very well be that this is the state that made Jesse Ventura governor. Coleman is definitely vulnerable, and early polls show him winning against Franken and Ciresi by about 7%. The tragic end of the 2002 campaign – in which Coleman defeated Mondale after Senator Wellstone’s late October death – has made this seat a top Democratic target for five years now.

Read the rest of the rankings – all the way to number 20 – here, at Campaign Diaries!

Ala the BURN BUSH campaign that helped raise $$ for Darcy Burner–

Online bloggers in support of Andrew Rice against Jim Inhofe have started the HUNT TERRORISTS, NOT DOVES campaign.

from actblue:

The country and world have turned against President George Bush’s Iraq occupation, but U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) remains one of the occupation’s most ardent supporters.

Inhofe is even holding his annual Oklahoma Dove Hunt at Quartz Mountain Lodge September 7-8 as the gruesome occupation drags on. He, along with his invited guest, the ultra-conservative John Cornyn (R-Texas), will be hunting dove, the international symbol of peace, as more American soldiers and innocent Iraqis die.

We need to send these two Bush lapdogs and Washington insiders into retirement. State Sen. Andrew Rice, a progressive Democratic from Oklahoma City, is running against Inhofe in the 2008 election. Rice, whose brother, David, died in the World Trade Center attacks on September 11, 2001, believes Inhofe took his “eye off the ball” after the attacks and, instead of going after terrorists, blindly followed Bush into the Iraq debacle.

Inhofe should hunt terrorists, not doves. But while Inhofe is killing doves, you can help send him into retirement. Become a Rice Dove today by contributing to Andrew’s campaign.

give what you can: HUNT TERRORISTS, NOT DOVES

According to Cliff, the rumor mill has churned out none other than independent Senator Joe Lieberman as a possible Bush nominee to replace disgraced Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez.  However, if you’ve believed all the rumors, Lieberman should have been one or all of the following by now: Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of Homeland Security, Ambassador to the United Nations, and George Bush’s running mate in 2004.

But for the sake of exploring every wild-eyed hypothetical, let’s assume that Lieberman answers Bush’s call and gets confirmed by the Senate as the next AG.  At present, Connecticut law states that, in the event of a Senate vacancy, the Governor gets to appoint a replacement.  If Lieberman were to leave, that would put the ball in Republican Gov. Jodi Rell’s court to name his successor.

So, whom might Rell appoint?  The Republican bench isn’t exactly burgeoning with obvious possibilities, seeing as how Rell and her Lieutenant, Michael Fedele, are the state’s only current GOP statewide office holders.  Looking to those with Congressional experience, ex-Rep. Nancy Johnson is 72 years old, and appointing current Rep. Chris Shays would almost certainly cause his House seat to fall to the Democrats–an unattractive option for Rell.  If she doesn’t tap someone from the state legislature, there’s always Rob Simmons, who represented a district with a sharply Democratic PVI of D+7.6 from 2000 until his defeat last November.

Of course, Connecticut Democrats, who hold a veto-proof majority in the state legislature, could make this hypothetical moot by quickly ushering in legislation to strip the power to fill Senate vacancies from the Governor.  In such an event, Democrats are not short of potential recruits to bring a bit more sanity to Connecticut’s Senatorial delegation in a special election.  Which one would you like to see nominated?

Just how far has John McCain’s stock fallen? According to a recent Rocky Mountain poll, he could face double digit defeat… in 2010. Yeah, even in Arizona, his home state, his popularity is less than 50%. The Rocky Mountain poll has popular Governor Janet Napolitano beating him 47% to 36% head-to-head. Napolitano is popular (59%), and could help downticket Democrats with a strong showing. McCain, on the other hand, is tied to an unpopular war, an unpopular immigration bill, and a really lousy attendance record.

Is it any wonder that McCain only leads by 9% in his home state’s GOP presidential primary? I’m glad he’s still in the race, because every dollar he spends is GOP donor money gone splendidly to waste.

(h/t Pollster.com – about 6 days old but I was on vacation and no one else diaried about it)

UPDATE: I guess that’s why McCain’s considering applying for public financing. The 100 million dollars he had planned to raise didn’t come through, so now he’ll probably take 6 million in federal funds just so he retire his debt. Anyone else think he’ll save some of the money he raises from here on out to protect his Senate seat in 2010?

[Napolitano] was ranked as doing an excellent or good job by 59 percent of those asked, and only nine percent gave her a poor or very poor rating.

The poll found that 76 percent of Democrats think she’s doing an excellent or good job, while 51 percent of independents and 41 percent of Republicans give her that ranking.

In a hypothetical head-to-head race for McCain’s Senate seat, 47 percent of those polled would vote for Napolitano, 36 percent for the sitting Republican senator, and 17 percent were undecided.

The poll, conducted by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona, was conducted between July 27 and Aug. 4 and has a margin of error of 3.9 percent.

Credit: AP, Aug. 21, 2007

While rumors have been around for awhile, it looks like Sen. Larry Craig has been busted:

Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho) was arrested in June at a Minnesota airport by a plainclothes police officer investigating lewd conduct complaints in a men’s public restroom, according to an arrest report obtained by Roll Call Monday afternoon.

Craig’s arrest occurred just after noon on June 11 at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. On Aug. 8, he pleaded guilty to misdemeanor disorderly conduct in the Hennepin County District Court. He paid more than $500 in fines and fees, and a 10-day jail sentence was stayed. He also was given one year of probation with the court that began on Aug. 8.

A spokesman for Craig described the incident as a “he said/he said misunderstanding,” and said the office would release a fuller statement later Monday afternoon.

After he was arrested, Craig, who is married, was taken to the Airport Police Operations Center to be interviewed about the lewd conduct incident, according to the police report. At one point during the interview, Craig handed the plainclothes sergeant who arrested him a business card that identified him as a U.S. Senator and said, “What do you think about that?” the report states.

Craig is up for re-election in 2008 and something tells me this isn't gonna play well back home in Idaho.  Whether Craig chooses to resign or stick it out, Democrat Larry LaRocco should be able to make a race of it.

Update: In the event that Craig retires early, a quick check of Idaho statutes shows that the replacement process is fairly standard. Republican governor “Butch” Otter has the full authority to appoint someone who would serve through November 2008. 

Republicans in Louisiana are passing the bottle around tonight–they just snagged a fresh, high profile turncoat from the Democratic ranks.  John Kennedy, the State Treasurer of Louisiana since his election in 1999, has bolted to the GOP after heavy recruitment by the likes of Karl Rove and David Vitter:

State Treasurer John Kennedy has switched political parties and will seek re-election to a third term this fall as a Republican, he announced Monday.

Kennedy has been publicly mulling the switch for months, and he has clashed repeatedly with Gov. Kathleen Blanco and the Democratic leaders in the House and Senate over spending and other issues.

In an email message to supporters, Kennedy cited “certain fixed, bedrock principles” that he believes are more in line with the Republican Party than the Democrats, and said GOP officials have been more responsive to his proposals in recent years.

What are those “bedrock principles”?  Kos has the straight dirt from Kennedy’s press release:

I also believe in the power of ideas. Every advancement in art, science, technology, business, cooking and medicine has occurred only after someone challenged the rules and tried another way. My career in public service demonstrates my belief in the power of looking for a better way. For the past several years, it has increasingly been the case that those public servants who have embraced my ideas and my philosophy of trying new approaches are primarily Republicans. I am grateful for their support and their willingness to try something different. (Emphasis added)

Cooking?!  I had no idea that conservative Republicans were responsible for so many culinary breakthroughs.  I hope Kennedy succeeds in his quest to bring Cajun food to a whole new level.

Kennedy, as you may recall, ran as a Democrat in the 2004 Senate race to succeed retiring Sen. John Breaux, scoring 15% of the vote.  Party loyalty is not exactly a strong suit in a state that produced notable party-switchers such as Rodney Alexander, Billy Tauzin, Walter Boasso, and Ray Nagin, and with the state’s trending-red demographic catastrophe, I suspect that charges of opportunism will be fairly muted.  By crossing the aisle now, Kennedy is setting himself up to run against Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu next year, to the immense delight of Rove and Vitter.  Landrieu has decent approvals, but this will be the GOP’s #1 target in 2008.  Expect a bloodbath.