Tag: AZ

I’m starting up this series again.  I’m going to try to do at least 2 rounds before the 2010 election.

It will be an update of the previous series, which makes it a lot easier, as some things haven’t changed.

Going alphabetically, we have Alaska, Arizona and Arkansas

Summary:

Alaska should be safe for the Repubs, but you never know.

In Arizona only the 1st and 3rd look to be in play; in AZ-01, Kirkpatrick is a freshman Democrat in a Republican district; in AZ-03, a wingnut (Shadegg) may retire.

Arkansas was so weird in 2008 that I can’t really say, but I’m guessing there will be no switches.

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

Alaska has one representative – A Republican.

Arizona has 8 representatives – 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans.  

Arkansas has 4 representatives – 3 Democrats and 1 Republican.  

District:   AK-AL

Location You know where Alaska is!

Representative Don Young (R) possibly retiring

VoteView ranking 320/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  1973

2008 margin 50-45

2006 margin 57-40

2004 margin 71-22

Obama margin 2008 39-61

Bush margin 2004 61-36

Current opponents Ethan Berkowitz, who ran in 2008, may run again.  Primary is also possible.

Demographics Alaska has a higher percentage of veterans than most places (16.4%, 30th place); it’s also about the 50th most Republican district, in national races.

Assessment Ordinarily, AK is about as Republican as it gets.

District: AZ-01

Location  The northeastern three-quarters of the state, bordering UT and CO, with a chunk missing: map

Representative Ann Kirkpatrick(D)

VoteView ranking 270/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2008

2008 margin 56-40 over Sydney Hay

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 44-54

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents  Paul Gosar, maybe others

Demographics Poorer (median income is $33K, about 371st place;  and more rural (44.5%, 363rd place) than most districts; 10th highest percentage of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (22.1% Native American)

Assessment Renzi (R) retired, and Kirkpatrick won fairly easily; I have little information here.

District: AZ-02   May retire

Location An oddly shaped district, it includes the northwest part of the state (bordering NV and UT) and a blob in the northern middle of the state, connected by a strand (this is tribal gerrymandering, separating two Native American groups), and another blob that reaches to the western suburbs of Phoenix: map

Representative Trent Franks (R)

VoteView ranking 442/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2002

2008 margin 60-37 over John Thrasher

2006 margin 59-39

2004 margin 59-39

Obama margin 2008 38-61

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Current opponents None yet

Demographics Only 7 districts have more veterans.

Assessment A longshot, whether Franks retires or not.  Franks is one of the most conservative members of the House.

District: AZ-03

Location North of Phoenix, including Paradise Valley and Carefree: map

Representative  John Shadegg (R) May retire

VoteView ranking 443/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  1994

2008 margin 54-42 over Bob Lord

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 80-20 (against a Libertarian)

Obama margin 2008 42-57

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents Bob Lord may run again.

Demographics Not unusual on any of the statistics I track

Assessment This is Republican territory, but not overwhelmingly; Shadegg is a real rightwinger, but Lord lost in 2008.

District: AZ-04

Location Phoenix and Glendale: map

Representative Ed Pastor (D)

VoteView ranking 65/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  1991

2008 margin 72-21 over Don Karg

2006 margin 73-24

2004 margin 70-26

Obama margin 2008 66-33

Bush margin 2004 38-62

Current opponents None declared, Karg may run again.

Demographics Poor (median income = $31K, rank = 402) and with a huge Latino population (58%, rank = 20).

Assessment Safe

District: AZ-05

Location East and north of Phoenix, including Tempe: map

Representative  Harry Mitchell (D)

VoteView ranking 230/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2006

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 53-45 over David Schweikert.

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 47-52

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents David Schweikert, possibly others.

Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $52K, rank = 83), with a high proportion of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (7.2%, rank = 134; including 3.3% Asian and 1.8% Native American).  

Assessment Mitchell beat Schweikert as a freshman, he should do so again.

District: AZ-06

Location In the southeastern part of AZ, but not bordering any other state: map  

Representative Jeff Flake (R) May retire

VoteView ranking 445/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 62-35 over Rebecca Schneider

2006 margin 75-25 (against a Libertarian)

2004 margin 79-21 (against a Libertarian)

Obama margin 2008 38-61

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None declared, Schneider may run again.

Demographics Lots of veterans (15.8%, rank = 45) and Latinos (17.2%, rank = 105).

Assessment This is a longshot; Flake is crazy, and wins easily.  A less crazy Repub might win more easily.

District: AZ-07

Location Southwestern AZ, bordering CA and Mexico: map

Representative Raul Grijalva (D)

VoteView ranking 24/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2002

2008 margin 63-33 over John Sweeney

2006 margin 61-34

2004 margin 62-34

Obama margin 2008 57-42

Bush margin 2004 43-57

Current opponents Ruth McClung

Demographics Very poor (median income $31K, rank = 10) and mostly Latino (50.6%, rank = 23)

Assessment Safe

District: AZ-08

Location The southeast corner of AZ, bordering Mexico and NM: map

Representative Gabrielle Gifford (D)

VoteView ranking 231/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2006

2008 margin 55-43 over Tim Bee

2006 margin 54-42

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 46-52

Bush margin 2004 53-46

Current opponents Jesse Kelly

Demographics Another district with a lot of veterans (19.1%, rank = 20)

Assessment  Giffords has now won twice, and should be OK again.  

District: AR-01

Location The northeast portion of AR, including Jonesboro, bordering MO, TN, and MS: map

Representative Marion Berry (D) May retire

VoteView ranking 183/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  1996

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 2008 44-54

Bush margin 2004 52-47

Current opponents Rick Crawford

Demographics One of the most rural (55.5%, rank = 26) and poorest (median income = $29K, rank = 417) districts.

Assessment Berry, among the most conservative Democrats in the House, is probably safe if he runs; if not, this will be tough to hold.

District: AR-02

Location The middle of the state, including Little Rock: map

Representative Vic Snyder (D)

VoteView ranking 172/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  1996

2008 margin 77-23 against Deb McFarland (Green)

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 58-42

Obama margin 2008 44-54

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents Possibly David Meeks

Demographics Not unusual on anything I track

Assessment Safe

District: AR-03

Location Northwestern AR, including Fayetteville, bordering MO and OK: map

Representative John Boozman (R) May retire

VoteView ranking 312/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2001

2008 margin 78-22 against Abel Tomlinson (Green)

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 59-38

Obama margin 2008 34-63

Bush margin 2004 62-36

Current opponents Larry Stricklin (needs a website)

Demographics Not unusual on anything I track

Assessment Longshot

District: AR-04

Location Southern AR bordering LA, TX and OK: map

Representative Mike Ross (D)

VoteView ranking 213/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 86-14 against Joshua Drake (Green)

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 2008 39-58

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Poor (median income = $30K, rank = 124), Black (24.4%, rank = 66) and rural (55.3% rank = 28)

Assessment Safe

Just how far has John McCain’s stock fallen? According to a recent Rocky Mountain poll, he could face double digit defeat… in 2010. Yeah, even in Arizona, his home state, his popularity is less than 50%. The Rocky Mountain poll has popular Governor Janet Napolitano beating him 47% to 36% head-to-head. Napolitano is popular (59%), and could help downticket Democrats with a strong showing. McCain, on the other hand, is tied to an unpopular war, an unpopular immigration bill, and a really lousy attendance record.

Is it any wonder that McCain only leads by 9% in his home state’s GOP presidential primary? I’m glad he’s still in the race, because every dollar he spends is GOP donor money gone splendidly to waste.

(h/t Pollster.com – about 6 days old but I was on vacation and no one else diaried about it)

UPDATE: I guess that’s why McCain’s considering applying for public financing. The 100 million dollars he had planned to raise didn’t come through, so now he’ll probably take 6 million in federal funds just so he retire his debt. Anyone else think he’ll save some of the money he raises from here on out to protect his Senate seat in 2010?

[Napolitano] was ranked as doing an excellent or good job by 59 percent of those asked, and only nine percent gave her a poor or very poor rating.

The poll found that 76 percent of Democrats think she’s doing an excellent or good job, while 51 percent of independents and 41 percent of Republicans give her that ranking.

In a hypothetical head-to-head race for McCain’s Senate seat, 47 percent of those polled would vote for Napolitano, 36 percent for the sitting Republican senator, and 17 percent were undecided.

The poll, conducted by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona, was conducted between July 27 and Aug. 4 and has a margin of error of 3.9 percent.

Credit: AP, Aug. 21, 2007