Congressional races 2010: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas

I’m starting up this series again.  I’m going to try to do at least 2 rounds before the 2010 election.

It will be an update of the previous series, which makes it a lot easier, as some things haven’t changed.

Going alphabetically, we have Alaska, Arizona and Arkansas

Summary:

Alaska should be safe for the Repubs, but you never know.

In Arizona only the 1st and 3rd look to be in play; in AZ-01, Kirkpatrick is a freshman Democrat in a Republican district; in AZ-03, a wingnut (Shadegg) may retire.

Arkansas was so weird in 2008 that I can’t really say, but I’m guessing there will be no switches.

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

Alaska has one representative – A Republican.

Arizona has 8 representatives – 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans.  

Arkansas has 4 representatives – 3 Democrats and 1 Republican.  

District:   AK-AL

Location You know where Alaska is!

Representative Don Young (R) possibly retiring

VoteView ranking 320/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  1973

2008 margin 50-45

2006 margin 57-40

2004 margin 71-22

Obama margin 2008 39-61

Bush margin 2004 61-36

Current opponents Ethan Berkowitz, who ran in 2008, may run again.  Primary is also possible.

Demographics Alaska has a higher percentage of veterans than most places (16.4%, 30th place); it’s also about the 50th most Republican district, in national races.

Assessment Ordinarily, AK is about as Republican as it gets.

District: AZ-01

Location  The northeastern three-quarters of the state, bordering UT and CO, with a chunk missing: map

Representative Ann Kirkpatrick(D)

VoteView ranking 270/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2008

2008 margin 56-40 over Sydney Hay

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 44-54

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents  Paul Gosar, maybe others

Demographics Poorer (median income is $33K, about 371st place;  and more rural (44.5%, 363rd place) than most districts; 10th highest percentage of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (22.1% Native American)

Assessment Renzi (R) retired, and Kirkpatrick won fairly easily; I have little information here.

District: AZ-02   May retire

Location An oddly shaped district, it includes the northwest part of the state (bordering NV and UT) and a blob in the northern middle of the state, connected by a strand (this is tribal gerrymandering, separating two Native American groups), and another blob that reaches to the western suburbs of Phoenix: map

Representative Trent Franks (R)

VoteView ranking 442/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2002

2008 margin 60-37 over John Thrasher

2006 margin 59-39

2004 margin 59-39

Obama margin 2008 38-61

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Current opponents None yet

Demographics Only 7 districts have more veterans.

Assessment A longshot, whether Franks retires or not.  Franks is one of the most conservative members of the House.

District: AZ-03

Location North of Phoenix, including Paradise Valley and Carefree: map

Representative  John Shadegg (R) May retire

VoteView ranking 443/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  1994

2008 margin 54-42 over Bob Lord

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 80-20 (against a Libertarian)

Obama margin 2008 42-57

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents Bob Lord may run again.

Demographics Not unusual on any of the statistics I track

Assessment This is Republican territory, but not overwhelmingly; Shadegg is a real rightwinger, but Lord lost in 2008.

District: AZ-04

Location Phoenix and Glendale: map

Representative Ed Pastor (D)

VoteView ranking 65/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  1991

2008 margin 72-21 over Don Karg

2006 margin 73-24

2004 margin 70-26

Obama margin 2008 66-33

Bush margin 2004 38-62

Current opponents None declared, Karg may run again.

Demographics Poor (median income = $31K, rank = 402) and with a huge Latino population (58%, rank = 20).

Assessment Safe

District: AZ-05

Location East and north of Phoenix, including Tempe: map

Representative  Harry Mitchell (D)

VoteView ranking 230/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2006

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 53-45 over David Schweikert.

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 47-52

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents David Schweikert, possibly others.

Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $52K, rank = 83), with a high proportion of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (7.2%, rank = 134; including 3.3% Asian and 1.8% Native American).  

Assessment Mitchell beat Schweikert as a freshman, he should do so again.

District: AZ-06

Location In the southeastern part of AZ, but not bordering any other state: map  

Representative Jeff Flake (R) May retire

VoteView ranking 445/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 62-35 over Rebecca Schneider

2006 margin 75-25 (against a Libertarian)

2004 margin 79-21 (against a Libertarian)

Obama margin 2008 38-61

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None declared, Schneider may run again.

Demographics Lots of veterans (15.8%, rank = 45) and Latinos (17.2%, rank = 105).

Assessment This is a longshot; Flake is crazy, and wins easily.  A less crazy Repub might win more easily.

District: AZ-07

Location Southwestern AZ, bordering CA and Mexico: map

Representative Raul Grijalva (D)

VoteView ranking 24/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2002

2008 margin 63-33 over John Sweeney

2006 margin 61-34

2004 margin 62-34

Obama margin 2008 57-42

Bush margin 2004 43-57

Current opponents Ruth McClung

Demographics Very poor (median income $31K, rank = 10) and mostly Latino (50.6%, rank = 23)

Assessment Safe

District: AZ-08

Location The southeast corner of AZ, bordering Mexico and NM: map

Representative Gabrielle Gifford (D)

VoteView ranking 231/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2006

2008 margin 55-43 over Tim Bee

2006 margin 54-42

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 46-52

Bush margin 2004 53-46

Current opponents Jesse Kelly

Demographics Another district with a lot of veterans (19.1%, rank = 20)

Assessment  Giffords has now won twice, and should be OK again.  

District: AR-01

Location The northeast portion of AR, including Jonesboro, bordering MO, TN, and MS: map

Representative Marion Berry (D) May retire

VoteView ranking 183/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  1996

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 2008 44-54

Bush margin 2004 52-47

Current opponents Rick Crawford

Demographics One of the most rural (55.5%, rank = 26) and poorest (median income = $29K, rank = 417) districts.

Assessment Berry, among the most conservative Democrats in the House, is probably safe if he runs; if not, this will be tough to hold.

District: AR-02

Location The middle of the state, including Little Rock: map

Representative Vic Snyder (D)

VoteView ranking 172/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  1996

2008 margin 77-23 against Deb McFarland (Green)

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 58-42

Obama margin 2008 44-54

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents Possibly David Meeks

Demographics Not unusual on anything I track

Assessment Safe

District: AR-03

Location Northwestern AR, including Fayetteville, bordering MO and OK: map

Representative John Boozman (R) May retire

VoteView ranking 312/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2001

2008 margin 78-22 against Abel Tomlinson (Green)

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 59-38

Obama margin 2008 34-63

Bush margin 2004 62-36

Current opponents Larry Stricklin (needs a website)

Demographics Not unusual on anything I track

Assessment Longshot

District: AR-04

Location Southern AR bordering LA, TX and OK: map

Representative Mike Ross (D)

VoteView ranking 213/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 86-14 against Joshua Drake (Green)

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 2008 39-58

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Poor (median income = $30K, rank = 124), Black (24.4%, rank = 66) and rural (55.3% rank = 28)

Assessment Safe

5 thoughts on “Congressional races 2010: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas”

  1. This is the entire Republican AR-01 delegation in the state legislature: State Reps. Davy Carter, Karen Hopper, and Roy Ragland and State Sen. Johnny Key. All of them live in the most Republican parts of the district — the northwest corner for all of them except Carter, who lives in Lonoke County; these were the only counties in the district that Hutchinson won in 2006. It doesn’t seem likely that the Republicans would have an easy time picking up the district.

  2. I never would’ve guessed that, I would’ve guessed Southerners, not Westerners.

    Franks 442/447

    Shadegg 443/447

    Flake 445/447

  3. Last I checked, his district was still very Conservative. Hard for any Democrat to win in a district that is very conservative, unless they run as Zell Miller-lite. Other than that, no. No Democrat will win here until 2016 when AZ is projected to receive a big demographic change.

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